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Why is the US dollar so high?
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pitt Offline
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Post: #1
Why is the US dollar so high?
The dollar is really valuable as right now comparing to other currencies. 100 dollars equals 70 pounds as today, I don't think I have ever seen the dollar so high against the pound. Canadian dollar has also decreased value against the US dollar, the same for brazillian real, etc etc.

I did a quick search on google but I am not finding good information about it. Can someone please explain what is happening?

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01-21-2016 03:09 PM
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trian1 Offline
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Photo RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Because it inhaled...

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01-21-2016 03:13 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
My arm chair quarterback explanation...

The global economy is a mess. China is in a free fall and it looks like the landing could be rough for them. Russia is at odds with the global elites and their economy is being crushed by the flooding of the oil market by OPEC. Western Europe is high risk, due to their mountains of debt and inability to straighten it out. And Canada is also being hurt by the oil market.

The only currency that really looks good is the USA. Sort of a situation where they are the best of the awful choices.

With that said, if one country ever gets smart and takes women out of the work force and encourages more freedom and creativity for their men... Russia I am looking at you to try this... I think they could really become and economic power house.
01-21-2016 03:20 PM
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Drazen Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
The Federal Reserve. Its going to start tanking though, soon enough. The DOW took a huge hit after the rate went up for the first time in years and years. Its the Last Days of Disco so to speak before we go belly up.
01-21-2016 03:26 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
The dollar is strong right now for a few reasons:

1. Fed raised interest rates. Most countries have very low interest rates, some are even negative! With a .25% interest rate this makes US bonds attractive as a safe investment vehicle. Since everyone loves safe stable value investments this makes bonds attractive.

2. Capital flight out of Europe. With european countries not looking very strong, capital is fleeing Europe. This shows that the FX market views these countries as weak. Remember several european governments have defaulted on their debt in the past. That along with these governments going full socialist retard capital is going to flee those markets to "safer" places.

3. Strength of the US: The US is relatively well off compared to the rest of the world. We don't have muslims entering our country, we haven''t ever defaulted on our debt (yet), and we have the most guns. He who has the guns, makes the rules. The US is perceived as a safe place.

4. Reserve currency. The US is still the most circulated currency world wide. This is slowly changing, but a nice economic downturn will quickly end this charade.


I personally think we'll see another 2008 style stock collapse in the next few months. This will devastate most of the world with Europe being hit the hardest. Capital will flee Europe because they'll most likely go full socialist retard, be over run with muslims, or are just structurally shams in their own rights. The US stock markets will have a massive bull run leading us up until the next pop occurs.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 03:31 PM by The Beast1.)
01-21-2016 03:29 PM
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DamienCasanova Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Simple question with a very complicated answer

This is the RISING DOLLAR problem

[Image: ABOOK-Jan-2016-How-it-Ends-2.jpg]

Read the full article here
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-19...nds-part-1
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20...nds-part-2

Tl;dr
This was the problem that led to the abandoning of the gold standard in 69
Fiat currency is becoming unsustainable, thanks in part to The Federal Reserve's reckless policies and/or purposeful destabilizing of currency and we are rapidly approaching the implementation of a global currency OR a return to the gold standard.

And with China devaluing the Yuan against the dollar, money is flowing out of China like water and big money is moving into the dollar to preserve value, and causing every other market to crash like a string of dominoes.

Google "rising dollar problem", and there are numerous articles you can read on what is going on right now, none of it will end well for the rest of us.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 03:57 PM by DamienCasanova.)
01-21-2016 03:45 PM
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Handsome Creepy Eel Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Basically what It_is_my_time said - USA is fucked, but other places are even more fucked, and the few that are not as fucked have never been among the major currency players whose currencies are considered a popular (or even well-known) investment.

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01-21-2016 04:01 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 04:01 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Basically what It_is_my_time said - USA is fucked, but other places are even more fucked, and the few that are not as fucked have never been among the major currency players whose currencies are considered a popular (or even well-known) investment.
Maybe we're not fucked and everyone has been saying it since I can remember in the 70s even.

I've traveled to more than a few places and everyone was more than happy to take my D (usd)

Try that with with Dominican pesos in Mexico.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 04:06 PM by el mechanico.)
01-21-2016 04:05 PM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 03:09 PM)pitt Wrote:  The dollar is really valuable as right now comparing to other currencies. 100 dollars equals 70 pounds as today, I don't think I have ever seen the dollar so high against the pound. Canadian dollar has also decreased value against the US dollar, the same for brazillian real, etc etc.

I did a quick search on google but I am not finding good information about it. Can someone please explain what is happening?

It makes sense when you look at macroeconomics.

The E.U. is currently in the shitter economically speaking..with the exception of the power economies like Germany. Other than that they will be servicing southern Europe's debt for a long time in various ways. This causes a net drag effect on the currency too. It's all baked in to the valuation. Greece is not the only loser country in the E.U. Spain, Italy, and to a lesser sense Portugal are all dead weight. They have crappy debt ratios and don't pull their weight economically speaking.

Commodities countries (Canada, Australia, Brazil etc..) are having issues because of China's lowered economic output. Plus commodities has been a bubble in the past few years for various other reasons.

Asia pacific region is slowing down a little because of China too. However most SEA economies are still performing pretty well.

Interest rates have some effect too.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 04:17 PM by El Chinito loco.)
01-21-2016 04:12 PM
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samsamsam Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
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You guys think we will see Dollar/Euro parity?

All I know is the few hundred Canadian $ in my closet have taken it in the ass over the last couple of years.

Just checked my XE app and wow the rouble is getting pummeled worse than bukkake chick.

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(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 04:52 PM by samsamsam.)
01-21-2016 04:49 PM
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Dr. Kahn Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
I take it you are putting your money where your mouth is on this?



(01-21-2016 03:29 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I personally think we'll see another 2008 style stock collapse in the next few months. This will devastate most of the world with Europe being hit the hardest. Capital will flee Europe because they'll most likely go full socialist retard, be over run with muslims, or are just structurally shams in their own rights. The US stock markets will have a massive bull run leading us up until the next pop occurs.
01-21-2016 05:02 PM
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Glaucon Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
The US in its history never cancelled its currency.

All other countries did a number of times.
01-21-2016 05:11 PM
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NASA Test Pilot Away
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Concur with Beast1 with the following points.

With Fed Interest Rates, I will disagree, not because of the fundamental analysis as that is solid, but because of manipulations. I think that this was a smoke screen and no liquidity has been added to the market and the cards are being passed under the table from the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) in the Department of Treasury to large banks and institutions as well the bond market through the reverse repo (repurchase) window (RRP´s) at Open Market Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve (Bank of New York).

Consider understanding how capital flows, not just in Europe. Most debt is denominated in dollars, but it has been (and will continue) changing to other currencies since the inception of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperative Agreement) and bilateral deals between countries in their own currencies. This has been further expanded with the creation of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and the NDB (New Development Bank). Debt denominated in dollars is causing a (temporary) demand for dollars and hence the FOREX is getting jacked up. Look at countries with a greater commodity orientation. They are getting squeezed now and it will accelerate in 2016 as they need more dollars to pay their increasing debt.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) is the cleanest shirt in the pile of dirty laundry, but countries are exiting the USD left and right, most of this news is not proliferated in the US. China alone exchanged almost 250 Billion in bonds in about 9 months in 2015 and the rate did not move from 2% as it should have moved to 4-4.5%. This is without mentioning the sale of bonds from Russia or some of the Middle-Eastern Sovereign Wealth funds.

Currencies will begin de-pegging and break from the dollar. The key will be in how they manage debt write offs. Therefore there will be some type of re-order or reset so that a political storm is not set off. Or maybe a storm will be set off. What a great distraction as everyone is taken to the cleaners. I concur that the first pop will be the equity market and I will add, then the bond market. The system in 2007-2008 was never cleansed and the risk is no longer priced into the system. Maybe there will be a new domestic (and depreciated) dollar to exist in parallel to the current (international) dollar.

The oil market is the prime example as they are unable to profitably hedge with these prices and without the profit they are unable to pay the debt. As the oil market continues to tank and the various oil companies default (more than 40 in 2016), the system will slide. Recall that that the basis of US economic power (through the USD) was at one time based on the large gold hoard of the US after WWII and then after the closing of the gold window in 1971, it was tied primarily to oil (and other commodities). This was the Petro-Dollar.

Bottom line, enjoy the USD strength while it lasts because when it declines, although it may be stronger than the Venezuelan Bolivar, it will no longer be the cleanest shirt in the pile.

Although the US never technically cancelled it currency, it did fail two time with the Continental Dollar during the Revolutionary War and then with the Greenbacks after the Civil War. The dollar is legally defined as 371.25 grains of silver according to the monetary act of 1792.

I am in fact under 7.5% of total assets (other than retirement income) in USD.
01-21-2016 07:56 PM
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robreke Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 05:11 PM)Glaucon Wrote:  The US in its history never cancelled its currency.

All other countries did a number of times.

It's never 'cancelled' its currency but the format has been changed numerous times.

Prior to 1900, the dollar was loosely linked to gold and silver in numerous ways.

In 1900, the dollar (USD) went to an official Gold standard where a dollar was convertible to 1.5 grams of gold.

This format of the dollar lasted for 33 years.

Then, in 1933 FDR, because of financial disruptions caused by the Great Depression, implemented the Gold Reserve Act which changed the structure of the US dollar. He basically fixed the dollar whereby 35 USD equaled an ounce of gold.

That form of the USD lasted almost 40 years until 1971.

Nixon abandoned Bretton Woods ( linking gold to the USD) for various pressing reasons, in 1971. For the first time, the USD was not linked to precious metals. It was a true fiat currency.

As of now, we've been on this "Nixonian" structure of the USD for just over 40 years.

Will there be another "form" or structure of the USD someday? It seems there must be.

When will this occur? That's up for speculation.

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(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 08:15 PM by robreke.)
01-21-2016 08:14 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 04:01 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Basically what It_is_my_time said - USA is fucked, but other places are even more fucked, and the few that are not as fucked have never been among the major currency players whose currencies are considered a popular (or even well-known) investment.

Basically yes. Martin Armstrong's explained what's happening in significantly greater detail on his site, but your explanation is a great two sentence summary.

The biggest problem is the EU: they're even more totalitarian than the United States when it comes to capital controls, which along with systematic problems with the Euro (e.g. the insanity of having a currency not tied to a single national debt) the US is the lesser of evils when it comes to parking capital. This is also exacerbated because the US elite has enough invested in US equities that they're unlikely to pass any policies that attack the favorable legal treatment capital receives when stored in equity investments.
01-21-2016 08:56 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
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(11-15-2014 09:06 AM)Little Dark Wrote:  This thread is not going in the direction I was hoping for.
01-21-2016 10:03 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
It's a US Presidential Election Year.
01-21-2016 10:10 PM
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JacksonRev Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Why is the dollar so high? Because everyone is banking on us to

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(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 10:16 PM by JacksonRev.)
01-21-2016 10:15 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Because 25% of everything in America is a straight up scam. This is our biggest advantage, because the rest of the world is usually around 50% or more. It's easy to look at all the f*cked up things in our own society, and wonder how we're doing it, but then you meet people from other countries, and realize they're even more f*cked up than we are in their own way. I bounced at an international club in an (elite) college town....they couldn't even figure out how to get in line. And these were the best and the brightest, kids going to Harvard and $hit. Put the whole world in perspective for me.

tl;dr - we're the safety currency because in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 11:01 PM by DarkTriad.)
01-21-2016 11:00 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Cause our FREEDOM is so high
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01-21-2016 11:03 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
I read that many of the countries who's major export is oil have been losing value against the dollar.

Russia, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, etc.
01-21-2016 11:05 PM
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
Printing money and devaluing a currency (like through Quantitative easing) was kept in check by other countries stomping down whoever was devaluing their currency.

But now, everyone's in on the party so from a relative standpoint its 'well if their central bank can prop up their market then ours can too!'
All the central banks are in on the scam. Governments have so much debt they have no choice but to fiat fake money to keep interest rates low because they can't absorb the massive debt payments. It's all bullshit.

Fuck look at Poland - when they started to resist EU migrant mandates, the bond rating company immediately downgrading their debt forcing them to pay a higher interest rate. There's 0 integrity in the financial markets anymore. All the values of equities are inflated to protect the elites and when they started to crash these past 2 weeks the government will step in with QE4 to prop it up further.

I recommend reading zerohedge.com, especially the comments - there are some very sharp traders on there who know it's all bullshit.

the global debt is so high it's predicted governments will:

1. outlaw cash transactions and switch to all digital currency. This way institutions control the populace more.
2. bail-ins where government confiscates a portion of private accounts as it pleases. (this has already happened in Cyprus).

Many banks already have limits on the amount of cash you can withdraw. One day the music will stop and you don't want to be the sucker who trusted them.
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2016 11:31 PM by Disco_Volante.)
01-21-2016 11:25 PM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 03:29 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I personally think we'll see another 2008 style stock collapse in the next few months. This will devastate most of the world with Europe being hit the hardest. Capital will flee Europe because they'll most likely go full socialist retard, be over run with muslims, or are just structurally shams in their own rights. The US stock markets will have a massive bull run leading us up until the next pop occurs.

The last time this happened in Europe, 10 years later a world conflict started.
01-22-2016 08:02 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
I think you're asking the wrong question.

"Why are the other currencies tanking?" is the better question.
01-22-2016 08:06 AM
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The Beast1 Offline
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RE: Why is the US dollar so high?
(01-21-2016 05:02 PM)Dr. Kahn Wrote:  I take it you are putting your money where your mouth is on this?



(01-21-2016 03:29 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I personally think we'll see another 2008 style stock collapse in the next few months. This will devastate most of the world with Europe being hit the hardest. Capital will flee Europe because they'll most likely go full socialist retard, be over run with muslims, or are just structurally shams in their own rights. The US stock markets will have a massive bull run leading us up until the next pop occurs.

Yes I will! My biggest regret was missing not investing 15k in cash I had back in 2009. I would have had at least 78k now had I put it into some stocks. Foolish foolish foolish. Equities are way too overvalued right now and I don't see the point in paying a premium when everything is trading sideways with a weak slant downward. Wait till things pop and then go in. Be smart and sit in cash. Don't actively short unless you know what you're doing.

(01-22-2016 08:02 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  
(01-21-2016 03:29 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I personally think we'll see another 2008 style stock collapse in the next few months. This will devastate most of the world with Europe being hit the hardest. Capital will flee Europe because they'll most likely go full socialist retard, be over run with muslims, or are just structurally shams in their own rights. The US stock markets will have a massive bull run leading us up until the next pop occurs.

The last time this happened in Europe, 10 years later a world conflict started.

I think we'll see something big happen in 2024. Martin Armstrong has 2024 marked as a turning point and from the political rumblings in Europe and the M.E we're probably looking at another world war in the not sure distant future. i'm expecting Africa and the ME to try and flood Europe with socialists trying to have open arms for the Muslims hoards. WW3 will be a giant race war.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2016 04:48 AM by The Beast1.)
01-22-2016 08:14 AM
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