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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2526
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-11-2016 01:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I understand that alts are a little bit off topic, but we all likely can see Ethereum as a bit of a distraction and the amazing price appreciation of the past couple of weeks.

How long it may last is another question.

These days, mostly, people get in and out of ethereum through bitcoin, so there can be some price correlations with bitcoin when there is so much ethereum volume being generated - currently about 1/3 the trade volume of bitcoin (and currently approaching 1/14 bitcoin's market cap).



I wouldn't want to transform this thread into an alt thread, but Ethereum continues to be on the move, and just past 1/12th bitcoin's market cap, with a continued 24 hour trade volume of a bit more than 1/3 of bitcoin's 24 hour trade volume.

Amazingly, there are only a few avenues to even get Ether, and likely those exchanges are running at near or full capacity - I don't own any Ether, so I am not writing from personal experience, just observing the charts and considering the various ways in which Ethereum's price performance may be affecting bitcoin prices, etc.

Also, Maidsafe has been experiencing fairly high weekly and 24 hour price appreciation with decent increases in volume, and likely maidsafe is even a thinner market in terms of buying and selling opportunities.

If I recall correctly, our own dear RVF member Satoshi had left bitcoin while employing various Ethereum talking points in this thread, and at one point he had invested in Maidsafe and mastercoin, too... though Mastercoin seems to have disappeared from the coinmarketcap thread.

These are very interesting real world dynamics regarding various cryptos, and likely the performance of various other cryptos will have an impact on how bitcoin is viewed, and even the physical reality of bitcoin frequently providing a vehicle in and out of various alt crypto coins.

Another interesting dynamic with bitcoin in the past couple of weeks is hash rate. The difficulty levels have been going through the roof in actuality and in predictions about the next difficulties, continuing to experience some fluctuation but overall 10% to 30% increases off of all time high levels. In other words, even though a couple of years ago, Bitcoin was able to boast hundreds of times the highest processing power of any of the most powerful combination of supercomputers, that claim of ongoing processing power continues to go through the roof for bitcoin.
02-11-2016 05:54 PM
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yolo Offline
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Post: #2527
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I've been talking about Ethereum for some time on this thread I believe. Compared to other altcoins, that are just copies/spinoffs of the main Bitcoin code/blueprints, Ethereum is a true innovation. I wouldn't even call it an altcoin. It's a platform to build decentralized style applications. Bitcoin is just one app - the currency. Ethereum, the idea is you can build many apps, in a decentralized environment, i.e., no one single party gets special privilege, or open source, or open blockchain. I'm disappointed that it's probably not practical for Ethereum to combine payments with Bitcoin, as these sit in two vastly different worlds. I was really hoping there was a way to do this, but not apparently so. Maybe some genius will come up with a way soon enough. P.S. Easiest place to get Ether for BTC is on Kraken, imo. It's kinda hard to justify getting into Ether at this point, maybe wait for bubble to pop. I'm waiting to cash some out once it hits my close targets.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2016 09:31 PM by yolo.)
02-11-2016 09:21 PM
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Post: #2528
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  I've been talking about Ethereum for some time on this thread I believe. Compared to other altcoins, that are just copies/spinoffs of the main Bitcoin code/blueprints, Ethereum is a true innovation.

You may be correct that Ethereum is the only Alt-coin that builds something quite different from Bitcoin; however, the fact that there are more than 600 alt coins listed on the coinmarketcap webpage, it is not easy to exclusively determine that Ethereum is the ONLY other alt coin that is innovatively adding something to the crypto space (separate and apart from bitcoin), etc. etc.


And, surely this thread would not likely be the place to make such arguments, analysis and supplying of evidence regarding what each and every of the various alts have to offer in comparison or in contrast to bitcoin.

Except to the extent that some of the alt coins are pumped from time to time, there seems to be a bit less attention on them in about the past year and a half, as compared to a couple of years ago when quite a few guys would come into this thread (in an off topic kind of way) and attempt to pump one alt coin or another.

There do seem to be quite a few ways that some discussion of alt coins remains somewhat relevant to the discussion of bitcoin in this thread, especially concerning how how some of the alt coins may be attempting to excel in their credibility based on the somewhat success of bitcoin, and also because frequently bitcoin will be a fairly major on and/or off ramp in getting invested in such alt coins.







(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  I wouldn't even call it an altcoin.

Again, you may be technically correct that ethereum may not officially be an “alt coin” because of its “non currency” attributes; however, since the various alt coins, including ethereum are not a focus of this thread, labeling ethereum as an alt coin seems to serve as an convenient short hand.





(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  It's a platform to build decentralized style applications. Bitcoin is just one app - the currency.

O.k…. so they are foundationally designed to serve different purposes, yet we already know that there is cross over of the purposes that each serves. We know that ether has taken on some currency aspects at least when there is some speculation and value, then people can trade it which also can cause some currency attributes. We also know that bitcoin can be used beyond it’s mere currency aspects, including various public ledger applications and surely potential storage of value, etc etc.







(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  Ethereum, the idea is you can build many apps, in a decentralized environment, i.e., no one single party gets special privilege, or open source, or open blockchain.

Yes, some of this is geeky, and still to be developed and in the process of development.



(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  I'm disappointed that it's probably not practical for Ethereum to combine payments with Bitcoin, as these sit in two vastly different worlds. I was really hoping there was a way to do this, but not apparently so.

I don’t know. I have been hearing various takes on this, and the upcoming implementation of segregated witness in bitcoin, could allow for some of the less secure aspects (such as a kind of ethereum side chain) to be adopted into that aspect of the bitcoin processing of transactions. I have not heard enough, and it seems really early days, but I kind of hypothesize that any of these various open source or quasi open source projects could be absorbed into bitcoin, and there is a bit of an incentive to do so, since bitcoin is evolving a very sophisticated and secure peer to peer computing power, never to have been seen in prior times.



(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  Maybe some genius will come up with a way soon enough.

Well, bitcoin has been in development for more than 7 years, and ethereum around 2 years, so there could be a lot of developments, and the more sophisticated ones (or the ones with potential mass appeal) could take 3-5 years more, or longer, to play out.



(02-11-2016 09:21 PM)yolo Wrote:  P.S. Easiest place to get Ether for BTC is on Kraken, imo. It's kinda hard to justify getting into Ether at this point, maybe wait for bubble to pop. I'm waiting to cash some out once it hits my close targets.

I think that your last couple of sentences above are really fair because buying in the middle of a 4-5x increase seems a bit pie in the sky to continue to expect such levels of price appreciation. Anything is possible, though, but it would seem more reasonable to wait for a bubble bursting, or at least just put only a small amount and expect that the small amount could lose 90% of its value in a short period of time.
02-12-2016 02:41 AM
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Post: #2529
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm not sure if I understand the below linked article in it's entirety because it makes several arguments that are cultural and seemingly in tension with one another regarding cultural tendencies.

Yet, in any event, I think that it shows that any forking away from Core, whether that be XT (which has been pulled) or Classic (2mb block increase), is likely not going to be supported by the chinese, which will likely make any attempts at hard forking more difficult to establish.... and likely a large majority of miners and developers sticking, at least for now, with core.. and the plan forward with Segwit.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/20...b75e9d7f95

I think that the status update of the article is fairly bullish for the short-term price direction of BTC.

Any other reading of this?

Also, possibly, over the weekend we may see people getting out of Ether and back into bitcoin? The weekend is also the end of the chinese new years festivities, so chinese banks will be open again next week - though I hate to give too much credit to the chinese regarding influencing bitcoin's price direction.
02-12-2016 06:31 PM
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Post: #2530
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-12-2016 06:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I'm not sure if I understand the below linked article in it's entirety because it makes several arguments that are cultural and seemingly in tension with one another regarding cultural tendencies.

Yet, in any event, I think that it shows that any forking away from Core, whether that be XT (which has been pulled) or Classic (2mb block increase), is likely not going to be supported by the chinese, which will likely make any attempts at hard forking more difficult to establish.... and likely a large majority of miners and developers sticking, at least for now, with core.. and the plan forward with Segwit.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/20...b75e9d7f95

I think that the status update of the article is fairly bullish for the short-term price direction of BTC.

Any other reading of this?

Also, possibly, over the weekend we may see people getting out of Ether and back into bitcoin? The weekend is also the end of the chinese new years festivities, so chinese banks will be open again next week - though I hate to give too much credit to the chinese regarding influencing bitcoin's price direction.

The only remaining Chinese mining operation supporting the ClassicCoin fork is Bitmain/Antpool. Much of the Classic effort was driven by notable hamplanet Marshall Long who was involved in the GAW/Paycoin scam. Note that like the GAW scams Classic was unveiled with substantial social media noise and unconfirmed third party endorsements that fell apart under scrutiny. The cultural differences in corporate communication did play a role in how the Classic business was strung out for so long.

This is very bullish in the same way the death of the XT fork lead to a rough doubling in price before Classic reintroduced a smaller measure of forking uncertainty and a subsequent price dip. Note that prices have generally been trending back up again today. As the rejection of Classic became more establish there's been larger than typical premium for Bitcoin on Chinese exchanges.

It may seem tedious, but you've gotta work on learning the inside baseball.
02-13-2016 08:34 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2531
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-13-2016 08:34 AM)BBinger Wrote:  
(02-12-2016 06:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I'm not sure if I understand the below linked article in it's entirety because it makes several arguments that are cultural and seemingly in tension with one another regarding cultural tendencies.

Yet, in any event, I think that it shows that any forking away from Core, whether that be XT (which has been pulled) or Classic (2mb block increase), is likely not going to be supported by the chinese, which will likely make any attempts at hard forking more difficult to establish.... and likely a large majority of miners and developers sticking, at least for now, with core.. and the plan forward with Segwit.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/20...b75e9d7f95

I think that the status update of the article is fairly bullish for the short-term price direction of BTC.

Any other reading of this?

Also, possibly, over the weekend we may see people getting out of Ether and back into bitcoin? The weekend is also the end of the chinese new years festivities, so chinese banks will be open again next week - though I hate to give too much credit to the chinese regarding influencing bitcoin's price direction.

The only remaining Chinese mining operation supporting the ClassicCoin fork is Bitmain/Antpool. Much of the Classic effort was driven by notable hamplanet Marshall Long who was involved in the GAW/Paycoin scam. Note that like the GAW scams Classic was unveiled with substantial social media noise and unconfirmed third party endorsements that fell apart under scrutiny. The cultural differences in corporate communication did play a role in how the Classic business was strung out for so long.

This is very bullish in the same way the death of the XT fork lead to a rough doubling in price before Classic reintroduced a smaller measure of forking uncertainty and a subsequent price dip. Note that prices have generally been trending back up again today. As the rejection of Classic became more establish there's been larger than typical premium for Bitcoin on Chinese exchanges.

It may seem tedious, but you've gotta work on learning the inside baseball.


Thanks for that inside baseball analysis.


In recent times, I had claimed to be neutral regarding XT or classic and even whether a hard fork needed to occur... but as time has evolved and I have continued reading up about these potential pushes that some of the players were making towards a hard fork, I have come to realize that even though the question is being famed as a technical need to increase the block from 1mb to 2mb, it really is not a technical question, but instead an attempt to screw up consensus based governance of bitcoin (which seems to be amongst bitcoin's greatest assets at least some of the peer to peer aspects)

I have therefore come to view those pushes and marketing for hardforks as being overly coercive, unnecessary and bully type behavior.

My mind is not closed on the topic; however, that seems to be my current leanings.

It has been like marketers of XT/classic have been buying into some kind of arguments that bitcoin is in a state of emergency and that there's got to be a hardfork, or else we are screwed.

How could there "have to be" a hardfork in order to achieve a technological limitations issue... That 1mb versus 2mb technological change is likely not a big deal, and there seems to be absolutely no need for a hardfork in order to achieve such "technological" change.

In fact, it appears that the ONLY reason for a hard fork, rather than a soft fork, is because one part is trying to force the issue and therefore to cause some kind of precedent for being able to make emergency changes via non-consensus, and there is no need to force any issue because a large majority already agrees more or less that an increase will be needed at some point.

There seems to be no real and/or meaningful reason or need to rush to create a timeline for such implementation of an blocksize increase.. because seg wit is right around the corner, and seg wit should be incorporated first in order to see how that plays out, and thereafter, after seg wit has been incorporated for a few months, then likely there can be additional and/or lengthy investigation into the impact and possibly even a timeline for causing some kind of block size increase, and again no need to hard fork such a decision, unless you are attempting to take away consensus decision making and to attempt to rule from a smaller group of peeps (or businesses or governments).
02-13-2016 02:14 PM
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Post: #2532
RE: The Bitcoin thread
The upward BTC price trend over the past few days (from upper $370s to lower $400s) seems to be a good sign.

I am not sure about whether such upward trend is solid, though because the trade volume remains relatively mediocre.


Therefore, it seems to me that anyone with 10K coins on bitstamp would be fairly (or at least potentially) capable of arresting or reversing the upward price direction.
02-14-2016 04:16 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Right on Roosh!
02-16-2016 03:05 PM
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Post: #2534
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-16-2016 03:05 PM)SunW Wrote:  HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Right on Roosh!


O.k. Maybe he is coming around again regarding accepting bitcoin?

If he transitions over to accepting bitcoin, then I will look forward to an update to the gold/silver membership page. Maybe also at some point, he will find that bitcoin is becoming more and more useful in a lot of various ways, even though sometimes, there can be various spending obstacles and a bit of a learning curve to set up secure and user-friendly wallet options.
02-16-2016 05:00 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2535
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-14-2016 04:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The upward BTC price trend over the past few days (from upper $370s to lower $400s) seems to be a good sign.

I am not sure about whether such upward trend is solid, though because the trade volume remains relatively mediocre.


Therefore, it seems to me that anyone with 10K coins on bitstamp would be fairly (or at least potentially) capable of arresting or reversing the upward price direction.


Over the weekend, in other bitcoin forums and my related posts, I had suggested that I thought that there was a decent probability that bitcoin prices could go into the $420 to $430 price range by the early part of this week... but yeah, maybe I had predicted that as a 57% chance of up or 43% chance of down price prediction... and 14 point spread may be about as daring as I like to get in this kind of a market.



Currently, we got bitcoin prices pushing up against 3-4 week highs in the $407 to $409 price arena, and at this time, this upward price pressure is continuing on fairly low volume, which is seeming to support that we may be witnessing some additional upward price movement in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Hahaha. I am not expecting much if any credit for any kind of prediction, because I have been merely attempting my best guestimations to engage in reasonable price direction predictions.

There still remains some resistance towards further upwards price movement, so maybe I would venture to guess (at this point, as I type) a 25% or so probability that prices will go into the $415 to $430 range within the next 24-48 hours.

If someone has a better approximation, based on facts not earlier considered, then I would be interested in hearing about it. Blush
02-16-2016 07:33 PM
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Post: #2536
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-16-2016 07:33 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(02-14-2016 04:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The upward BTC price trend over the past few days (from upper $370s to lower $400s) seems to be a good sign.

I am not sure about whether such upward trend is solid, though because the trade volume remains relatively mediocre.


Therefore, it seems to me that anyone with 10K coins on bitstamp would be fairly (or at least potentially) capable of arresting or reversing the upward price direction.


Over the weekend, in other bitcoin forums and my related posts, I had suggested that I thought that there was a decent probability that bitcoin prices could go into the $420 to $430 price range by the early part of this week... but yeah, maybe I had predicted that as a 57% chance of up or 43% chance of down price prediction... and 14 point spread may be about as daring as I like to get in this kind of a market.



Currently, we got bitcoin prices pushing up against 3-4 week highs in the $407 to $409 price arena, and at this time, this upward price pressure is continuing on fairly low volume, which is seeming to support that we may be witnessing some additional upward price movement in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Hahaha. I am not expecting much if any credit for any kind of prediction, because I have been merely attempting my best guestimations to engage in reasonable price direction predictions.

There still remains some resistance towards further upwards price movement, so maybe I would venture to guess (at this point, as I type) a 25% or so probability that prices will go into the $415 to $430 range within the next 24-48 hours.

If someone has a better approximation, based on facts not earlier considered, then I would be interested in hearing about it. Blush



Based on our recent BTC price action, I am going to attempt to venture another BTC price prediction.

I would suggest that currently, we largely seem to be within about a $400 to $425 price channel, and how long will that last, I am not sure. Could be short or could last several weeks.

I do tend to think that we are getting some upward price pressures and generally people are no longer buying some of the forking propaganda and the block size limit bullshit.. and also realizing generally that core has a pretty decent, conservative and reasonable plan forward. If you want me to cite some kind of source, here than let me know.

I kind of thought that we could have gotten enough upward price momentum to break out in the upper direction towards the upper $420s and maybe even into the $430s, but it is possible that we are not ready yet, and the trade volume has not really picked up very much, but now after a little lingering in the lower $420s and then a bit of a shooting down to $414, I am wondering about whether we may stay in this $400 to $425 price channel all weekend....

never say never in bitcoinlandia, and surely in the morning, I could be awoken to another price alarm of prices shooting upward and out of the price range.

Also, we could break slightly beyond on the upside or towards the downside for short periods.

I am kind of thinking that maybe there is some needs for attempts at profit taking and to test the downward resolve, and in that regard, prices may break down first over the weekend, and then possibly get stuck back in a similar channel before breaking up, later down the road?

If we do not break down over the weekend and stay above $410 all weekend, then that outcome would probably be fairly bullish and be a sign that chances are pretty decent that the next break out of the channel is going to be upwards, rather than downwards.. and bring us, possibly, towards testing the upper $460s again.

Maybe that is a bit of a lame and all over the place prediction, but since my BTC price alarms woke me up at $414 (and then prices bounced almost immediately back over $416), I thought that I should write a few thoughts before hitting the sack again.
02-19-2016 04:45 AM
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Post: #2537
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Seemingly, even a bit more bullish than even I anticipated.....

Next stop, possibly in the upper $460s, but just to be safe, I will probably continue to sell reasonable amounts along the way in reasonable intervals, just in case we get a some retracement along our way to the test of the upper $460s.

Actually, it could take some time to get to the $460s .... still a bit of a mystery to me. Undecided
(This post was last modified: 02-20-2016 06:58 AM by JayJuanGee.)
02-20-2016 06:54 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-20-2016 06:54 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Seemingly, even a bit more bullish than even I anticipated.....

Next stop, possibly in the upper $460s, but just to be safe, I will probably continue to sell reasonable amounts along the way in reasonable intervals, just in case we get a some retracement along our way to the test of the upper $460s.

Actually, it could take some time to get to the $460s .... still a bit of a mystery to me. Undecided


I think that the roundtable consensus could explain some of Bitcoin's upwards price movement of the past 12 hours.


https://medium.com/@bitcoinroundtable/bi....7y8z50und

Although, i think that a lot of folks still consider the commitment contained within the agreement to be too tentative and too far off. Namely that an increase in the blockchain could be between anywhere from 1 mb to 2 mb or even up to 4mb by July 2017 if there is enough support in the community for such an increase.

Surely, such an increase is not certain, but seems to allowed for some guidance and commitment and clarity regarding a likely roadmap for the coming year in bitcoinlandia.

surely there are other macroeconomic factors that may also be contributing to this price movement, and I am still thinking that we may have to get some correction to the recent price move into the $420s and then maybe even another test of the upper $460s in the coming week, if not sooner than a week. Trade volume has picked up a bit, but still is bordering on average levels of quite below 15k btc (in 24 hours on bitstamp) to be in the materially significant arena.
02-20-2016 05:31 PM
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CleanSlate Offline
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Post: #2539
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm considering stashing some portion of my savings into bitcoin, as a hedge against the US dollar. Not worried about privacy yet, just want to hedge my currencies a bit. Anyone doing the same thing or is this a bad idea?
02-22-2016 08:31 PM
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Post: #2540
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-22-2016 08:31 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I'm considering stashing some portion of my savings into bitcoin, as a hedge against the US dollar. Not worried about privacy yet, just want to hedge my currencies a bit. Anyone doing the same thing or is this a bad idea?


My sense is that most of the participants of this thread have considered bitcoin as a potential hedge against the dollar; however, there are some guys who have tried to make lots of money on bitcoin by timing the price movements and to buy and sell according to those predictions, which may or may not have worked in their favor.

Of course, the performance of bitcoin over the past couple of years brought some ambiguous thoughts on the topic of whether bitcoin is a good hedge against the dollar and concerns whether bitcoin is a good long term investment.

Some people may consider gold and silver or other precious metals to be better in regards to hedging against the dollars.. but personally, I am not so convinced about that, and I really like the mobile aspects of bitcoin (even though you cannot place it in your hand and make it shiny).

If you look through some of my posts in this thread, you will see that my perspective is very much dollar cost averaging in order to accumulate bitcoin to hedge against the dollar, more or less like you mentioned.

I think, for me personally, I accomplished a large majority of my BTC accumulation in 2014, and maybe now, I am not accumulating as much BTC but maintaining some ongoing percentage of mine in BTC and trading in order to attempt to prepare for price movements in either direction, and I personally believe bitcoin is a better investment than gold or silver, so I may not be the best person to ask on that topic.

For you CleanSlate, when did you start accumulating BTC, in what kinds of other investments do you have your money, and what are the approximate percentages in various investments?

I have around 10% of my total quasi-liquid assets in various bitcoin trading funds, and within my various BTC trading funds, currently, I have about 95% of the totals of the funds in bitcoin and 5% in dollars.... so hopefully, I remain somewhat prepared for Bitcoin's price to go in either direction to sell BTC on the way up (in less than 30% of my profits intervals) and to buy on the way down (with whatever I had sold on the way up), so hopefully, overall by the end of the year keeping my total amount invested in to BTC about the same as it was at the beginning of the year.

Actually, I just started this practice in October 2015..

Anyone else has BTC hedging stories?
02-22-2016 09:00 PM
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CleanSlate Offline
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Post: #2541
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-22-2016 09:00 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  For you CleanSlate, when did you start accumulating BTC, in what kinds of other investments do you have your money, and what are the approximate percentages in various investments?

I haven't started accumulating BTC yet. I see plusses and minuses for both BTC and gold/silver. BTC is volatile and totally dependent on electrical power and internet, but has potential as a hedge or long term investment. Gold/silver is tangible and proven as a hedge, but is impractical to carry around and can be confiscated by the government.

Right now:

- All of my money is denominated in US dollars.
- No debt.
- No tangible assets like real estate.
- 401k in the low 6 figures, Roth IRA in the low 5 figures... all of my stocks and mutual funds diversified across a few different industry sectors (includes one of those gold indices) are in those tax-advantaged accounts.
- Liquid savings that can carry me for a while (think 18 months living expenses in the US, or conservatively 3+ years in EE, LA, SEA)

Together, the 401k and Roth adds up to 75% of my net worth, and my savings is the other 25%.

I was thinking of allocating 10%, maybe 20% tops, of my savings into BTC...
02-22-2016 09:56 PM
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Post: #2542
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-22-2016 09:56 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  
(02-22-2016 09:00 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  For you CleanSlate, when did you start accumulating BTC, in what kinds of other investments do you have your money, and what are the approximate percentages in various investments?

I haven't started accumulating BTC yet. I see plusses and minuses for both BTC and gold/silver. BTC is volatile and totally dependent on electrical power and internet, but has potential as a hedge or long term investment. Gold/silver is tangible and proven as a hedge, but is impractical to carry around and can be confiscated by the government.

Right now:

- All of my money is denominated in US dollars.
- No debt.
- No tangible assets like real estate.
- 401k in the low 6 figures, Roth IRA in the low 5 figures... all of my stocks and mutual funds diversified across a few different industry sectors (includes one of those gold indices) are in those tax-advantaged accounts.
- Liquid savings that can carry me for a while (think 18 months living expenses in the US, or conservatively 3+ years in EE, LA, SEA)

Together, the 401k and Roth adds up to 75% of my net worth, and my savings is the other 25%.

I was thinking of allocating 10%, maybe 20% tops, of my savings into BTC...


One more thing that you left out is salary and or incoming money (which I assume is in dollars).

Surely, BTC is in a much better place right now, as compared to when I began investing in it, and therefore, probably, it would be safe to be a bit more aggressive than I was in terms of your "all out" allocation of a fairly decent percentage into BTC.

For me, since I started in BTC in late 2013, and prices were on an ongoing basis going down, I more or less spread my investment into BTC over a year, but then due to some other (quasi-unrelated) cash flow issues that I suffered in early 2015, I kind of had to stop for a short period and also to slow down some of my investment into BTC (probably during the better times to have bought into BTC).

Anyhow, if I were you, I would somewhat consider the total amount that you are thinking about putting into BTC, and consider a plan for spreading such investment over 1-4 months. The amount of time that you spread it, of course, will depend on your view of bitcoin, your risk tolerance and possibly how you are planning to get your BTC.

Surely, you may be more willing to just plug in, right away, but that may be a bit much and risky.

At minimum, If I were in your shoes, I would likely consider dividing the first 10% into three bundles (at least categorizing as such) - and then consider how you are going to invest each of those three bundles - whether right away or dollar cost averaging or some other trading plan.

I would then also consider the second 10% - the portion from 10 to 20% that you are a bit hesitant to invest into BTC. I would also divide that into three bundles that you would consider investing into BTC after you invest (or put to work) the first 10%... and that second 10% may be considered to be invested (or not) contingent upon the unravelling or occurrence of certain events. I think that a total of 20% is a lot, but surely, it sounds as if you have some decent reasons in your head and some decent diversification, already, in your various investments.

You may want to consider property, but maybe you are similar to me, in that you are attempting to keep from being to tied down and illiquid, which is one of the downsides of property (and even some business ventures, which I currently have some quasi-illiquid problems related to some of my current business holdings).
02-22-2016 10:22 PM
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CleanSlate
CleanSlate Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Thanks Jay, good info!
02-22-2016 11:17 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-22-2016 11:17 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  Thanks Jay, good info!

Sure, no problem....

I hope that you can continue to post in this thread, for example, how you are progressing, etc.

Do you happen to know yet, from where you are going to get your BTC and whether you will be paying fees and how much BTC you can get at a time?

Two of the most common (and relatively inexpensive ways) to begin to accumulate BTC in the US is through Coinbase and Circle, but certainly there can be some other ways to accomplish getting BTC more cheaply, but may take longer to set up and to send money (Uphold is free, but takes a while to get dollars there in order to buy coins) (which in the end, time could end up being a factor, too).

In the past couple of weeks, I had some people contact me through local bitcoins to obtain bitcoins from me, and they can surely get their coins cheaper if they know of other avenues, but they don't mind paying somewhat of a premium because they are in a rush to get some coins. I don't advise them too much regarding cheaper ways to get bitcoin because I want to sell to them some coins at a bit of a premium (which may or may not work out well for them in terms of fees, but it is a quick way to get started, and that is how I got my first coins while I was awaiting for my bank to get verified.).

Also, sometimes, you could go to a bitcoin meet up or find a friend who has some BTC, and sometimes, some people may be willing to sell some without much if any premium... that would likely be a more of a short term rather than a long term way to begin accumulating BTC.
(This post was last modified: 02-22-2016 11:33 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-22-2016 11:28 PM
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dispenser Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Observation.
China has a history of currency control and internet censorship.

Can they cut off the local BTC networks from the outside world, or force the use of a parallel digital currency within their borders?

Could provide a model for other countries that want to control the currency in use.
02-23-2016 12:36 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-23-2016 12:36 AM)dispenser Wrote:  Observation.
China has a history of currency control and internet censorship.

Can they cut off the local BTC networks from the outside world, or force the use of a parallel digital currency within their borders?

Could provide a model for other countries that want to control the currency in use.


There has been quite a bit of fearmongering around that topic in recent months - and yes, that kind of fearmongering goes in spurts.

People suggest that China is going to nationalize mining operations in their country, or there are assumptions that chinese miners are going to cooperate in allowing some kind of 51% attack, etc etc etc.

A lot of this speculation, is just that speculation that makes little to no sense, if you actually attempt to think it through to its various logical conclusions.

I would not mind having a conversation on such speculation if the scenario were to be described with more specificity and more realistic probabiliies rather than just fear mongering.

For example, the claim that China is going to nationalize all of the bitcoin mines is a kind of bullshit that assumes that the owners of those mines are going to cooperate or not attempt to move or to hide or to shut down their mines in some kind of way with the chinese government and hand over their wealth, keys passwords.. blah blah blah... Makes little sense, when you really think through those various speculative scenarios.

Dispenser: Do you have some more meaningful and specific scenario that you believe could be realisitcally carried out within bitcoin's peer to peer system that also allows outsiders to divert and not recognizing instabilities that could come about within china for example?
02-23-2016 01:10 AM
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dispenser Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-23-2016 01:10 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Dispenser: Do you have some more meaningful and specific scenario that you believe could be realisitcally carried out within bitcoin's peer to peer system that also allows outsiders to divert and not recognizing instabilities that could come about within china for example?

No. That's why I asked that apparently sensitive question.

But giving it some thought, I assume the Chinese would just kill the system outright without trying to nationalise it.
Isn't the chief benefit of BTC its lack of centralised control, something the Chinese government values very much?
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2016 01:28 AM by dispenser.)
02-23-2016 01:27 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2548
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-23-2016 01:27 AM)dispenser Wrote:  
(02-23-2016 01:10 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Dispenser: Do you have some more meaningful and specific scenario that you believe could be realisitcally carried out within bitcoin's peer to peer system that also allows outsiders to divert and not recognizing instabilities that could come about within china for example?

No. That's why I asked that apparently sensitive question.

But giving it some thought, I assume the Chinese would just kill the system outright without trying to nationalise it.
Isn't the chief benefit of BTC its lack of centralised control, something the Chinese value very much?


I don't mind the question and exploring the topic, even if it is somewhat speculative, and surely some guys with more knowledge could chime in at any point.

I have been studying bitcoin fairly intensively for more than two years, and there is a lot that I do not know, and I am continuously learning, and even learning from others who have been in the Bitcoin space a lot longer than me, and frequently even with very experienced folks in the space, there is a broad array of perspectives (some perspectives being better than others, of course).

With any fearmongering rumors, there is going to be some truth to them (and/or some plausibility) - otherwise, the fearmongering and the rumors would not be very effective in order to inspire fear and lack of confidence in the stability of bitcoin (or lack thereof).

Regarding miners, the data is not exactly public regarding where they are located and who they are controlled by and whether a bunch of mines could be owned by the same person. Surely some people disclose the scope of their mining operations and participation in pools, and yes pools are much more dominant than individuals in the mining scene, but there are both with sometimes lots of power in pools and some questions regarding ownership and controls of pools.

There is both diversity and potential for lack of diversity in the bitcoin mining space and its overall humongous hashing power (taken together), and when some of this hashing power is accomplished in quasisecretive manners (or even not so secretly) a large number of mines could potentially come under the concentration of a narrow number of people or even one person in some scenarios (stealthily), but also there are so many people around the world who are feeling more invested in bitcoin and its decentralization that groups form to oppose various efforts at centralization... and really, for example, these latest attempts in past 6 months at introducing classic and xt seem, in my mind serve as demonstrations of community action and skepticism and community ganging up against attempts to take over bitcoin (that largely were initiated with a smaller group of people with attempts at force). Accordingly, aims at changing governance and to force hardforks, merely for the sake of forcing hardforks, seemed to be more attempts at coups rather than consensus on to the whole protocol and practices of bitcoin.

These kind of smaller group attempts could come from a variety of angles, whether it is fear of the chinese entities or some other groups; however, the chinese do not really seem to be any kind of current problem (except maybe recently there have been assertions that the chinese are representing bitcoin core - which does not seem to be a bad thing).

Even bitcoin could lose some of its initial vision, I don't think it is so easy for bitcoin to get lost or taken over by some rogue force, because there is a very diversified stake and continuous study of bitcoin by a lot of stakeholders (that are continuing to come into the space and to build upon bitcoin as it evolved and matures)

Sometimes, there are assertions that a lot of the miners and mining farms are in china.. and even that is not completely clear regarding where they are, exactly... o.k... fair enough.

There are a variety of tactics that the Chinese could attempt as a group of individuals and as a government input into bitcoin in order to either attempt to destroy bitcoin or attempt to co-opt it, but in the end, just because the chinese may have varying incentives to attempt to do these kinds of things, it doesn't mean that they could practically be successful in carrying out some of the efforts without either being unable to control the bitcoin space within or alternatively outsiders catching onto the phenomenon and diverting mining efforts or the recognition of the mined blocks, which could cause forks and confusion, but still nonetheless remains very speculative, at the moment.

Bitcoin is designed to be trustless and assumes a variety of nepharious actors, and some of this nephariousness is going to be attempted through the years of bitcoin. It has already been attempted a number of times, and even if we do not know how various undermining scenarios and attacks are going to play out, we should still consider making our bets on whether bitcoin is going to be a success or a failure based on more likely scenarios, rather than based on less likely scenarios.

Surely, you are free to come to your own conclusions about likeliness of various nepharious scenarios playing out (and sources that are describing some of the far fetched scenarios), and then make a decision regarding your involvement / investment (or not) in bitcoin based on what you believe to be more likely.

In any event, probably, I am not explaining my scepticism very well, but frequently when I hear about a lot of these chinese scare scenarios they are more based in fantasy, fear of foreigners, partly true stereotypes of chinese faking everything and impracticality rather than based on scenarios that are very likely to play out in the real world of bitcoin as we know it today.

Regarding, bitcoin, government entities are all over the place regarding whether they support bitcoin or are opposed and one branch is not talking with another, and they have various incentives to undermine bitcoin and not to really accept it or to allow it to get too big.. but in the end, just like tor, they cannot really control it completely.. just like the internet, they cannot control it completely. It's not only the chinese government, but the us government, venezuela, Argentina... and a lot of governments, and on an ongoing basis there have been various kinds of attacks and attempts to undermine bitcoin (local and national).

Ultimately today bitcoin seems to be doing quite well under a variety of scenarios, even though regulation, criminalization and even passive aggressive behaviors of various governments towards bitcoin is ongoing and mixed... the good, bad and the ugly coming from governments, financial institutions, etc... and bitcoin remains the honey badger that keeps on.
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2016 02:35 AM by JayJuanGee.)
02-23-2016 02:07 AM
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Isaac Jordan Offline
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Post: #2549
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Princeton has put out a free Bitcoin textbook:

Quote:The first complete draft of the Princeton Bitcoin textbook is now freely available. We’re very happy with how the book turned out: it’s comprehensive, at over 300 pages, but has a conversational style that keeps it readable.

If you’re looking to truly understand how Bitcoin works at a technical level and have a basic familiarity with computer science and programming, this book is for you. Researchers and advanced students will find the book useful as well — starting around Chapter 5, most chapters have novel intellectual contributions.

I haven't read it yet, but it's hard to beat free. If anyone else ends up reading, please share your thoughts with us here.
02-24-2016 10:31 AM
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CleanSlate Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Downloaded the book and saved it, in case they decide to have people pay for it, or pull it altogether.
02-24-2016 11:39 AM
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