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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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Il Bersagliere Offline
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Post: #2826
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Still waiting on this

https://z.cash/

I'd be more amenable to using BTC if there were some veil of privacy with my transactions. The last time I bought BTC, I went through so much bureaucracy and bullshit, it was unbelievable.

whip
07-08-2016 02:40 PM
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oilbreh Offline
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Post: #2827
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-08-2016 02:39 PM)AboveAverageJoe Wrote:  Aren't you concerned that Bitcoin can be shut down by the Government, US specifically but even a coalition? It ultimately abates tax evasion and money laundering and worst of all anonimity. I would be concerned it could just be turned off one day like when all US online poker players accounts were just taken by the government. It could just be shut down one day like Silk Road, no?

They cant that's the whole point, its decentralised meaning not a single server runs it.

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07-08-2016 03:22 PM
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Post: #2828
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-08-2016 02:39 PM)AboveAverageJoe Wrote:  Aren't you concerned that Bitcoin can be shut down by the Government, US specifically but even a coalition? It ultimately abates tax evasion and money laundering and worst of all anonimity. I would be concerned it could just be turned off one day like when all US online poker players accounts were just taken by the government. It could just be shut down one day like Silk Road, no?


I'm not sure about whether I am expert enough to answer these questions, but yeah, you have decent points regarding regulatory risk, and so accordingly, anyone who invests in bitcoin takes these kind of risks and has to engage in ongoing assessment of risks, whether regulatory or other governmental passive aggressive hostilities.

Governmental behavior and response in respect to bitcoin remains complicated and contradictory, and sure there are certain levels of hostilities from various segments of governments and overt strategies and likely covert strategies regarding how to deal with bitcoin, whether to attempt to undermine it or to embrace it.

Overall, anyone can invest in bitcoin or anything else with these kinds of concerns about what are the risks in mind, yet my investment in bitcoin remains considerably liquid, so I could remove all or part of it at any time, if I were to perceive some issues that could considerably and materially undermine the value (and/or price) of bitcoin. The liquidity channels in bitcoin have become really great in the past several years, especially in comparison to late 2013 (the last all time high of nearly $1,200).

No one investing into bitcoin is wedded or locked into bitcoin's success for 20 years or even it's success for 1 month, if the person were to begin to believe that BTC fundamentals have sufficiently changed in order to cause rationale for pulling out all or some of the already invested amounts.

I'm not sure about how familiar you are with bitcoin, aboveaverage, because even though you raise some very decent points and concerns that anyone can have in respect to their investment, the obstacles to "shutting down" bitcoin remains quite a bit higher than the various examples that you gave. Bitcoin is different even though there could be attempts at shutting down attempts, like you asserted.

Shutting down difficulties:

** Bitcoin remains mutl-jurisdictional, and good luck getting governments to cooperate in terms of whether they believe bitcoin to be "bad" for them or their people. Some governments (maybe smaller ones) may conclude that bitcoin is good, because it competes against the dollar and competes against traditional currencies and investment systems, banks etc.

**Bitcoin remains peer to peer with more powerful and largely decentralized computing power than ever seen by mankind - currently the network of bitcoin mining computers is running at nearly 1.5 petahashes, which a new unit of account (petahash) had to be implemented in order to describe what is going on with bitcoin's computing power... so trying to shut that down is maybe even more difficult than shutting down the internet.. good luck with that.

**Surely, bitcoin could be regulated on the margins (and is being regulated in these kinds of ways) in terms of interaction with fiat and maybe even divide and conquer selective enforcement. know your customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) laws are part of the regulatory package, but there can also be tax regulations and contradictions too that will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction; however, in the end, the various governmental regulations and behaviors in regards to bitcoin cut both ways to endorse BTC to some extent, even while attempting to burden bitcoin and to cause BTC disadvantages... take for example the various selling off of confiscated bitcoin assets... Takes the coins from "criminals" and then there is some kind of endorsement and regulation that comes from the mere act of conducting a governmental auction, which has already taken place a number of times in various jurisdictions (USA and Australia)

In the end, the behavior of governments and the expected behavior of governments in respect to bitcoin is all over the place.. and the effects of some of that behavior is also all over the place in terms of how it affects the strength or weakness of bitcoin. In the meantime with the passage of time, bitcoin continues to be developed, researched, adopted, and the word gets out, and bitcoin becomes stronger and stronger and likely more and more difficult to suppress (though not impossible in the event of a lot of lining up of ducks, like you suggest).

In this regard, it is my calculation that each of us bets on the more likely outcomes rather than the outliers, so what is more probable and what would it take in order to get to that less probable outcome as compared with what would it take to get to the more probable outcome and which way are we currently moving... The bets can change over time, but still bitcoin remains a buy, buy, buy, even though each person may need to assess how much and what intervals etc in terms of his own view of risk, financial circumstances and timeline.

One thing to really attempt to get to sink in regarding bitcoin is that it is paradigm shifting invention... yeah, there are quite a few copy cats and also quite a few attempts of other crypto's to denigrate bitcoin or to suggest that they are bitcoin 2.0.. but a lot of that is pure nonsense, and we should not get distracted or caught up in such distracting claims.. The reality of the matter is that no other crypto or system exists like bitcoin or has ever existed like bitcoin.. sure there are some similarities in some ways and we can make some analogies, but in the end, bitcoin is the shit.. and really brings a lot of newness to the table... In this regard, there is quite a bit of problematic wakamole in respect to attempt to suppress bitcoin.. in that it remains difficult for any government, whether coordinated or not to find and to attempt to strike down centralized points within bitcoin in order to attempt to have an effect on its ongoing decentralized, immutable and censorship resistance status.


Centralized points (players) do not control bitcoin, but there are a bunch of bitcoin advocates.. and so the more attempts to outwardly knock down bitcoin and some of its players would likely cause more and more underground bitcoin behaviors and players to emerge - and sure BTC prices would likely take a hit from coordinated governmental attacks, but it seems quite unlikely to be able to kill bitcoin in total.. and it would take some time to achieve and we are likely going to see such coordinated attempts coming, if they were to occur.. especially because bitcoin is becoming more and more international.. with more and more advocates all over the world.. And, even if there were various coordinated governmental attacks on bitcoin, it is possible that over time, BTC's price would bounce back, even in the event that there were widespread attempts at criminalizing bitcoin. Yes, these kinds of coordinated and/or overt attacks on bitcoin are currently very speculative and seems to be contrary to the current facts and what is actually taking place in our current bitcoin space.
07-08-2016 03:50 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2829
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-08-2016 02:40 PM)Il Bersagliere Wrote:  Still waiting on this

https://z.cash/

I'd be more amenable to using BTC if there were some veil of privacy with my transactions. The last time I bought BTC, I went through so much bureaucracy and bullshit, it was unbelievable.


Well, yeah, each of us has to attempt to inform ourselves and to determine the extent to which we believe that bitcoin is profitable or whether something else may be more suitable for ourselves to get involved in and to what extent.

Furthermore, nothing in life comes without any costs, transparencies of information or contradictions, and so even if there are difficulties in bitcoin, no one is suggesting to go "all in" or at least, I am not. You find the amount that is suitable for you, whether that be 0% or 1%. 5%, 10%, 50% or some other individualized amount.

There is also no necessity to consider all or nothing regarding whether zero cash could be the solution, because you could well invest in both to the extent that one may be more liquid and available than the other. Bitcoin remains the most liquid, so far, of all the various crypto options, but merely liquidity may not in itself make it the most suitable option for all persons.
07-08-2016 03:57 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2830
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I found the video linked in the below reddit posting to be an interesting and bullish discussion, mostly just a contemporary discussion speculating the effects of the just passed halvening.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r...ined_by_3/
07-10-2016 01:33 PM
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #2831
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.

Don't forget to HODL!
07-10-2016 01:56 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2832
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.

Don't forget to HODL!


Yeah. That fatshaming is an interesting kind of way of framing the situation.

I take it that you are using September as a kind of reference point for the next price increased based on how long you expect for the results of the lessening of the supply to be felt, or is there some other reason that you are projecting September for such?
07-10-2016 07:36 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2833
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Interesting recent development that seems to bring the Winklevoss ETF one step closer to realization... that is the opening up by SEC for public comment.. which could result in a SEC approval as soon as within a 45 to 90 day period.

http://www.coindesk.com/sec-winklevoss-b...c-comment/

Bullish?
07-11-2016 02:54 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2834
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here are three more bitcoin bullish markets for anyone interested in articles discussing bullish bitcoin scenarios.


1) https://news.bitcoin.com/philippines-pay...s-bitcoin/

2) https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-...ated-game/

3) https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/coinapul...-colombia/
07-11-2016 05:19 PM
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #2835
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-10-2016 07:36 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.

Don't forget to HODL!


Yeah. That fatshaming is an interesting kind of way of framing the situation.

I take it that you are using September as a kind of reference point for the next price increased based on how long you expect for the results of the lessening of the supply to be felt, or is there some other reason that you are projecting September for such?

That and looking at the last halving. Was in November gradually started being felt in price by late December, but broke loose February through March. Given that 3/4 as opposed to half of all Bitcoins have been mined as well as more and largely different players being involved now the supply squeeze could hit differently this time. Anywhere from August through January.

Sure Mt Gox is gone as a nexus of instability, but Bitfinex is likely to enter its death throes and play a similar role.
07-12-2016 01:48 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2836
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-12-2016 01:48 PM)BBinger Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 07:36 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-10-2016 01:56 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Happy halving everybody. The biggest action so far from this has been the revelation that Bitcoin is deeply fatshaming. Still the rest of the year should be a wild ride starting in September.

Don't forget to HODL!


Yeah. That fatshaming is an interesting kind of way of framing the situation.

I take it that you are using September as a kind of reference point for the next price increased based on how long you expect for the results of the lessening of the supply to be felt, or is there some other reason that you are projecting September for such?

That and looking at the last halving. Was in November gradually started being felt in price by late December, but broke loose February through March. Given that 3/4 as opposed to half of all Bitcoins have been mined as well as more and largely different players being involved now the supply squeeze could hit differently this time. Anywhere from August through January.

Sure Mt Gox is gone as a nexus of instability, but Bitfinex is likely to enter its death throes and play a similar role.

Yep... All of what you say makes sense and certainly we have a much more developed space (nearly 4 years later) with quite a bit of relative liquidity and various additional avenues to short bitcoin.

Even though we cannot know exactly how a smaller increase in bitcoin's supply is going to play out on the price, the most logical conclusion remains somewhat modeled on the past, as you suggest, and in that regard, I doubt that halvening can be completely priced in, as some like to argue, because such halvening impact becomes much less speculative when actual material impacts begin to be felt in a larger and more concrete way with the passage of time and with apparent increased adoption and use of bitcoin.

Seems pretty great to be a HODLer, at the moment. Wink
07-12-2016 02:12 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2837
RE: The Bitcoin thread
The Russians seem to be lightening up a little bit in respect to bitcoin...


http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/07/13/russia...ty-rights/


They seem to be a bit of flip-floppers regarding bitcoin, and let's see how this current inclination plays out.
07-13-2016 02:13 PM
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jamaicabound Offline
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Post: #2838
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I sold off a large percentage of my coins. I was just looking at the charts. I don't know that it will reach back here but my personal feeling right now is I'm not comfortable buying back in until we get back to $580, if we do. I could be totally off base and it could continue rising from here but personally not comfortable rebuying my big position back in until $580
07-14-2016 11:50 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I sold off a large percentage of my coins. I was just looking at the charts. I don't know that it will reach back here but my personal feeling right now is I'm not comfortable buying back in until we get back to $580, if we do. I could be totally off base and it could continue rising from here but personally not comfortable rebuying my big position back in until $580

What kinds of percentages of BTC are you talking about selling, jamaicabound? From your description, it sounds like more than 75% of your holdings, no?

I can kind of recognize what you are saying, when you are looking at some of the charts and the rate of bitcoin's price growth, and in that regard, maybe $580 would be a bit more reasonable place to be, based on a kind of traditional assessment of the asset, or at least another test of $580 before either continuing upwards price movement or even flat.

On the other hand, bitcoin is not really any kind of traditional asset, and has a very decent potential to experience another exponential upwards price spike at any moment, that could take us 5x, 10x or maybe some smaller stepping stone before making such movement, and in that regard, I have difficulties selling any significant amount of my BTC holdings at these mid-$600s prices, and my holdings remain a bit bias stacked in favor of upwards. I have projected ranges of holdings for myself at various price points, which currently is 85% to 96%, and my current BTC to fiat is a bit over 95% (which is very near the top of the range, which could be a bit too exuberant) .

I continue not to really know short-term price directions either, especially the shorter the term of prediction the more difficult it is to know.

Part of the additional difficulty in predicting either price direction comes when we are continuing to experience a relatively low level of trade volume (which I think remains the current case, in spite of little volume spikes here and there, they are not sustained for more than a day or so), so if there is some kind of desire by either side to push BTC prices upwards or downwards, they could likely do it in the short term and even achieve a 5% or greater movement in either direction without much difficulties.

I was telling my GF yesterday that I thought that over the previous few days since price had moved up from the $640s to $678 and then back down to the mid $650s on relatively low volume, that there was pretty decent momentum to at least get into the $640s, especially if there were just a pick-up spike in volume for the shorter term, but instead the price bounced back into the $660s.. and remains in the lower $660s as I type.

I would say currently (looking back at the last month and a half of so) that BTC prices are largely unpredictably floating in about a $550 to $750 range, and they could bounce around quite a bit in that range and to still stay in that very large range.

I mean it seems that we have a bit of a low volume battle here. Bears would like prices to go back below $500 and bulls would like prices to go above into the $800s at least. It also seems that whenever there are spikes in volume, those spikes remain attempts to push the price down, and then come all at once to attempt to make such downward price pushes, but the prices trickle back up on relatively lower volume.. and accordingly, it seems that Bulls have a bit of an advantage overall because of the upward dynamics and because the bears really would have liked to have kept prices below $500 for a lot longer, but they lost control of that situation and seem to be having difficulties even getting prices to go below $600 for any extended period of time.. take the last push to $540 on 6/22.. the prices were below $600 for only about 1 day total, and there were several unsuccessful attempts thereafter to try to bring prices below $600.. .

Accordingly, our previous range for about the whole beginning of 2016 up until the end of May was $360 to $460.... and we broke out of that range... and kind of seemingly no return absent some really major negative situation.

So, sure it is possible and within possible reason to go down to $580 or lower, but I certainly would not hold my breath for such to occur.

Hypothetically, if I were to sell any significant percentage of my BTC holdings in the mid $600s today, I would probably be buying back about 20% of what I had sold for every about $20 drop, just to be safe, because like I mentioned, there have already been several unsuccessful attempts to go below $600, and whether this next attempt (if such an attempt comes) would be successful to go below $600 remains quite unclear and even seems to be a bit against the odds...

Any further explanation or assessment from you jamaicabound would be appreciated, or from anyone, even if the assessment goes contrary to what I am asserting, which is a bit more on the bullish end of things.
07-14-2016 02:53 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2840
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Also, Since we are on the topic of bitcoin...

The news is that MTGOX CEO Mark Karpeles is out of jail in Japan on $100k bond.

Interesting.. click on the video linked in the reddit thread, he looks very thin and very different with about a 50lb weight reduction.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4s...translate/

http://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-ceo...han-before
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2016 03:12 PM by JayJuanGee.)
07-14-2016 03:12 PM
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jamaicabound Offline
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Post: #2841
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 02:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I sold off a large percentage of my coins. I was just looking at the charts. I don't know that it will reach back here but my personal feeling right now is I'm not comfortable buying back in until we get back to $580, if we do. I could be totally off base and it could continue rising from here but personally not comfortable rebuying my big position back in until $580

What kinds of percentages of BTC are you talking about selling, jamaicabound? From your description, it sounds like more than 75% of your holdings, no?

I can kind of recognize what you are saying, when you are looking at some of the charts and the rate of bitcoin's price growth, and in that regard, maybe $580 would be a bit more reasonable place to be, based on a kind of traditional assessment of the asset, or at least another test of $580 before either continuing upwards price movement or even flat.

On the other hand, bitcoin is not really any kind of traditional asset, and has a very decent potential to experience another exponential upwards price spike at any moment, that could take us 5x, 10x or maybe some smaller stepping stone before making such movement, and in that regard, I have difficulties selling any significant amount of my BTC holdings at these mid-$600s prices, and my holdings remain a bit bias stacked in favor of upwards. I have projected ranges of holdings for myself at various price points, which currently is 85% to 96%, and my current BTC to fiat is a bit over 95% (which is very near the top of the range, which could be a bit too exuberant) .

I continue not to really know short-term price directions either, especially the shorter the term of prediction the more difficult it is to know.

Part of the additional difficulty in predicting either price direction comes when we are continuing to experience a relatively low level of trade volume (which I think remains the current case, in spite of little volume spikes here and there, they are not sustained for more than a day or so), so if there is some kind of desire by either side to push BTC prices upwards or downwards, they could likely do it in the short term and even achieve a 5% or greater movement in either direction without much difficulties.

I was telling my GF yesterday that I thought that over the previous few days since price had moved up from the $640s to $678 and then back down to the mid $650s on relatively low volume, that there was pretty decent momentum to at least get into the $640s, especially if there were just a pick-up spike in volume for the shorter term, but instead the price bounced back into the $660s.. and remains in the lower $660s as I type.

I would say currently (looking back at the last month and a half of so) that BTC prices are largely unpredictably floating in about a $550 to $750 range, and they could bounce around quite a bit in that range and to still stay in that very large range.

I mean it seems that we have a bit of a low volume battle here. Bears would like prices to go back below $500 and bulls would like prices to go above into the $800s at least. It also seems that whenever there are spikes in volume, those spikes remain attempts to push the price down, and then come all at once to attempt to make such downward price pushes, but the prices trickle back up on relatively lower volume.. and accordingly, it seems that Bulls have a bit of an advantage overall because of the upward dynamics and because the bears really would have liked to have kept prices below $500 for a lot longer, but they lost control of that situation and seem to be having difficulties even getting prices to go below $600 for any extended period of time.. take the last push to $540 on 6/22.. the prices were below $600 for only about 1 day total, and there were several unsuccessful attempts thereafter to try to bring prices below $600.. .

Accordingly, our previous range for about the whole beginning of 2016 up until the end of May was $360 to $460.... and we broke out of that range... and kind of seemingly no return absent some really major negative situation.

So, sure it is possible and within possible reason to go down to $580 or lower, but I certainly would not hold my breath for such to occur.

Hypothetically, if I were to sell any significant percentage of my BTC holdings in the mid $600s today, I would probably be buying back about 20% of what I had sold for every about $20 drop, just to be safe, because like I mentioned, there have already been several unsuccessful attempts to go below $600, and whether this next attempt (if such an attempt comes) would be successful to go below $600 remains quite unclear and even seems to be a bit against the odds...

Any further explanation or assessment from you jamaicabound would be appreciated, or from anyone, even if the assessment goes contrary to what I am asserting, which is a bit more on the bullish end of things.

Hey buddy, yeah honestly my moves with Bitcoin are more gut decisions than based on any type of hard numbers, although I feel like historically just from looking at charts as well as kind of taking into consideration current events and just overall support for BTC that I'm fairly decent at predicting or guessing trends.

I had kind of touched on it in a previous post but I was swing trading bitcoins back in the 2015. Prior to Novermber 15 bought in a little over 300 sold for 400. Waited for the drop back to 350 then in december sold for like 440 or so. Bought back in in the 380 range in Jan, etc.

Honestly prior to the recent runup prices had been kind of stagnent and I kind of got busy with other things and totally forgot about Bitcoin. I heard about the price spike and decided to selloff like 90% of my holdings.

Looking back I wish I hadn't because it's kind of stupid selling off taking gains just to buy back in but I guess I was anticipating or hoping for another dip/buying opportunity and wanted to take some profits and get back in with a bit of extra money to buy a few more coins.

I'm a believer in Bitcoin for the longterm. I really have any concrete numbers in mind but honestly in the next 5 or 10 years I could see it being back to the $1200 days or even something crazy like 20k a coin, I just really don't know so for that reason always wanted to keep a pretty good stock of coins as I think it's only going to continue to go up.

Everyone hates merchant processors, bitcoin solves that problem. The marijuana industry is another example, they are locked out of banking and there's a solution to processors refusing to work with that and other "high risk" industries. My current business is paying almost 7% in merchant processing because were high risk despite not having had a chargeback in over 3 years while doing thousands of transactions a year over 2.5 million. Recently a processor told me I'm high risk because I had one chargeback of $157 out of like hundreds of successful transactions totaling over 2 million. Now banks like Chase are getting all finicky over international wires, closing down the ability of small businesses to wire money. The lack of someone being able to control bitcoin has so many applications for business we just need more people to use it so it becomes a practical platform for payments.

Honestly I kind of broke my own rule by selling off as much as I did. I basically said I never wanted to fall below 20 btc min.
07-14-2016 03:35 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 02:53 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 11:50 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  [edited out]
[edited out]

Hey buddy, yeah honestly my moves with Bitcoin are more gut decisions than based on any type of hard numbers, although I feel like historically just from looking at charts as well as kind of taking into consideration current events and just overall support for BTC that I'm fairly decent at predicting or guessing trends.


I'm planning to respond to you in two posts, therefore maybe a bit easier to read?


Here's response part 1:


Probably it does not matter too much regarding how you arrive at your BTC trading decision(s), so long as you are comfortable with the decision or have some kind of exit strategy that is reasonable in the event that your price predictions do not play out as you were anticipating.

I think that I am doing something similar to you, and at the same time, I do attempt to provide some explanations for my position(s) to the extent that either RVF guys may be interested or that I believe attempting explanations would be helpful for me in attempting to figure out why I have such inclinations and approaches (self-therapy.. Laugh )

Sure we know that each of us are acting on incomplete information (or possibly difficulties explaining why we have certain hunches or inclinations), and sometimes we are just going to have to act on whatever information that we have at our disposal at the time that we act.

(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I had kind of touched on it in a previous post but I was swing trading bitcoins back in the 2015.

Overall, 2015 was not too good of a year to swing trade BTC because as you know it was mostly not moving too much and largely in the mid $200s.. but yeah, nonetheless, I am sure there would have been several opportunities within those price ranges, as well.... namely spike to $317 in the middle of the year and then second spike to $502 in late October / early November.



(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Prior to Novermber 15 bought in a little over 300 sold for 400. Waited for the drop back to 350 then in december sold for like 440 or so. Bought back in in the 380 range in Jan, etc.

Definitely there were probably reasonable profits in what you did, and ways you could make more profits or ways that you could have screwed up and made less profits.

In this regard, there are quite a few ways to trade BTC and to be profitable - even when some methods may be more profitable than others.

Each guy needs to customize his own approach.

By the way, I am kind of curious regarding how you appropriate your BTC trading profits. Do you attempt to fold those profits back into your BTC trading fund, or do you take them off the table and buy some consumer goods or do you diversify them into other investments? I'm sure that there is probably a mixture regarding what you do and your cash flow and how you perceive other kinds of investments.

For me, I have kind of attempted to keep track of a pool of funds that I designate as my "BTC trading portfolio", even though some of it is in fiat and some of it is in BTC. I have been slowly (little by little) increasing my quantity of funds in my trading pool through the last three years, so in essence, my BTC investment is long term whether it is held in BTC or not, but I have not really removed any funds from that pool in the past nearly three years, so far.

One of my concerns about removing funds from my BTC trading pool is that it potentially creates a taxable event, and surely creating a taxable event is not necessarily the end of the world, but something that I am attempting to defer for a while, to the extent that it seems reasonably feasible to defer.
07-14-2016 05:12 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's response part 2:

(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Honestly prior to the recent runup prices had been kind of stagnent and I kind of got busy with other things and totally forgot about Bitcoin. I heard about the price spike and decided to selloff like 90% of my holdings.

Looking back I wish I hadn't because it's kind of stupid selling off taking gains just to buy back in but I guess I was anticipating or hoping for another dip/buying opportunity and wanted to take some profits and get back in with a bit of extra money to buy a few more coins.


I appreciate your self-reflection and self-criticism, yet we know that nearly every BTC trading strategy is going to have it's ups and downs and "I should have ____".

BTC trading is a risky business, and none of us regular people are really going to be able to time the tops and bottoms of the prices on a consistent basis unless we are either lying or extremely lucky.

I certainly attempt to preach my BTC trading strategy as being good, but really, I understand that mostly I am working on my BTC trading strategy for myself and frequently tweak my strategy on an ongoing basis and I also understand that my particular strategy is not going to be suitable for some people in terms of their own personal finances, risk tolerance and/or time line.

I kind of have variations of this battle concerning how to trade (strategies for trading) with folks in other bitcoin forums and also with my girlfriend...

Let's take my girlfriend, for example, I try to get her to follow some reasonable variation of my system, which is to sell as the price goes up and to buy as the price goes down while always keep some bitcoin in her BTC portfolio and always keep some fiat available, and on an ongoing basis, the price would out run her, and she would frequently run out of one or the other... So bitcoin prices would be going up, and she would not have any more BTC to sell or bitcoin prices would be going down and she would not have any fiat left to buy. In both cases, she would sell or buy too early and too much.... but similar kinds of problems could be true, if we attempted to wait too long before we either buy or sell and we try to time the bottom or the top too much... So, in my strategy, we have to continue to buy in stages as the price is going down and continue to sell in stages as the price is going up, but not too much and to plan ahead somewhat.

I am no angel in figuring out these kinds of price points and amounts for myself because I am also frequently having to adjust my buying and selling strategy in order to be better prepared for large price movements in either direction.

No matter how we tweak these trading allocation amounts, there is going to be room to learn, but then also, likely, some regrets, too.




(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  I'm a believer in Bitcoin for the longterm. I really have any concrete numbers in mind but honestly in the next 5 or 10 years I could see it being back to the $1200 days or even something crazy like 20k a coin, I just really don't know so for that reason always wanted to keep a pretty good stock of coins as I think it's only going to continue to go up.

In this regard, it is not necessarily a bad thing to trade and take profits at reasonable intervals, but your description of your thinking here seems to justify also that you should always hold on to some BTC - even if BTC prices go quite high - never sell all of them because you are never going to be 100% sure that the upwards BTC price run is over, correct?

As compared with me, you seem to be quite a bit more tolerant to get rid of some of your BTC on significant price runs, and maybe, for example, I would still hold onto 40% of my coins if in an extreme bull run, but maybe you should still consider holding onto at least 20% of those coins (or whatever other percentage might suit you) in an extreme bull run.

I think that it is good to consider these kinds of extreme price run scenarios in order to give ourselves guidelines regarding our own personal trade limits... but yeah, maybe you are more willing to sell 95% or even 99% of your BTC... I think that selling anywhere above 60% is too extreme for me, but each of us is gonna have a different amount in which we are willing to go. And, under certain scenarios, I may even be willing to go beyond my limit, if I really believe that prices are going down by 10% or more.


(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Everyone hates merchant processors, bitcoin solves that problem. The marijuana industry is another example, they are locked out of banking and there's a solution to processors refusing to work with that and other "high risk" industries. My current business is paying almost 7% in merchant processing because were high risk despite not having had a chargeback in over 3 years while doing thousands of transactions a year over 2.5 million. Recently a processor told me I'm high risk because I had one chargeback of $157 out of like hundreds of successful transactions totaling over 2 million. Now banks like Chase are getting all finicky over international wires, closing down the ability of small businesses to wire money. The lack of someone being able to control bitcoin has so many applications for business we just need more people to use it so it becomes a practical platform for payments.

Actually, the above are very good examples to show the power of bitcoin and its potential to empower individuals while also having the potential for exponential price growth, and your examples are likely just scratching the surface of bitcoin's potentiality.


(07-14-2016 03:35 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Honestly I kind of broke my own rule by selling off as much as I did. I basically said I never wanted to fall below 20 btc min.

Well, maybe you broke your own rule because your rule was not quite suitable to how you are really going to act when push comes to shove?

I don't think that it is necessarily bad to break your own rules if you think that there is a good justification for breaking it, but then again, if you broke your rule, and then you realize that you should have stuck with the rule, then you can go back to the rule... or at least figure out some reasonable way to get you back to your original and maybe more suitable position, correct?

Sometimes, I have found that I have either sold too much BTC or bought too much in terms of my own guidelines - either I have to rethink my own guidelines or I have to figure out a way to get back in compliance with my guidelines.

One of the good thing about being the master of your own rules is that you can change them if you think that making such changes is a good idea or figure out strategies to attempt to be more compliant with your rules - especially when the pressure is on.. and when the BTC market is moving fast, we then have to think fast, too or to have some kind of set up in which we already have a pretty good idea what we are going to do in such circumstances ... even when the situation may play out a little bit differently than we had anticipated or planned for...

And, in the end, even if we do not follow our plan exactly and we kind of screw things up (in respect to our plan), that does not justify NOT having a plan... What I am saying is that it is better to have a plan and then deviate from it rather than not having a plan...

You know the statement: failing to plan is like planning to fail... hahahaha.. Let's at least try some kind of planning. Blush
07-14-2016 05:29 PM
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booshala Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?
07-14-2016 05:44 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote:  Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?


Are you sure that you are getting 1.14%?

I understand 7% is high.... and jamaicabound had said something about a high risk business (which could be drug dispensers or something like that).

Anyhow, a lot of the regular merchant services will advertise low rates, and even advertise rates that are below 2% etc; however, a lot of that is bullshit because by the time you add up all the various other bullshit and hidden charges and monthly charges and all the other random and difficult to decipher shit that they throw into your monthly bill, you are lucky to get out of there with a 4% to 6% charges in compared to the amount of items charged. I think that is why some merchants will not take certain credit cards, and American Express is one of the notorious additional charges... But, anyhow, maybe a business that is doing higher volume of transactions will achieve some lower on the spectrum of charges, maybe?

I think that square has become so competitive in the merchant service space because they charge a flat 2.75% fee for everything and any kind of card whether debit or credit, everything is the same, so I would be surprised if you are actually achieving merchant service fees that are beating out square's flat rates...
07-14-2016 06:38 PM
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booshala Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 06:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote:  Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?


Are you sure that you are getting 1.14%?

I understand 7% is high.... and jamaicabound had said something about a high risk business (which could be drug dispensers or something like that).

Anyhow, a lot of the regular merchant services will advertise low rates, and even advertise rates that are below 2% etc; however, a lot of that is bullshit because by the time you add up all the various other bullshit and hidden charges and monthly charges and all the other random and difficult to decipher shit that they throw into your monthly bill, you are lucky to get out of there with a 4% to 6% charges in compared to the amount of items charged. I think that is why some merchants will not take certain credit cards, and American Express is one of the notorious additional charges... But, anyhow, maybe a business that is doing higher volume of transactions will achieve some lower on the spectrum of charges, maybe?

I think that square has become so competitive in the merchant service space because they charge a flat 2.75% fee for everything and any kind of card whether debit or credit, everything is the same, so I would be surprised if you are actually achieving merchant service fees that are beating out square's flat rates...

Yeah it's roughly 115 basis points after everything... for example if my gross monthly CC revenue is $200k, my merchant fees come out to around $2500-$3000 all in after the garbage fees.

My current provider gunned hard for my business and gave me rock bottom rates to make me switch. After a few months, there were some server shut downs and they felt obligated to cut a lot of the PCI and junk fees out as well. The fee is also very low because 90% of the plastic that comes through is debit which has a very low surcharge.

Square's rates are terrible for my business, I'd never even consider them unless I had some low grossing business like a small cafe or food truck.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2016 08:05 PM by booshala.)
07-14-2016 08:03 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2847
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 08:03 PM)booshala Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 06:38 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-14-2016 05:44 PM)booshala Wrote:  Jeezus, 7% merchant services?? I have a restaurant, and luckily most of the customers pay with debit cards when they're using plastic so the aggregate fee is like 1.14%... What kind of business is it if you don't mind sharing?


Are you sure that you are getting 1.14%?

I understand 7% is high.... and jamaicabound had said something about a high risk business (which could be drug dispensers or something like that).

Anyhow, a lot of the regular merchant services will advertise low rates, and even advertise rates that are below 2% etc; however, a lot of that is bullshit because by the time you add up all the various other bullshit and hidden charges and monthly charges and all the other random and difficult to decipher shit that they throw into your monthly bill, you are lucky to get out of there with a 4% to 6% charges in compared to the amount of items charged. I think that is why some merchants will not take certain credit cards, and American Express is one of the notorious additional charges... But, anyhow, maybe a business that is doing higher volume of transactions will achieve some lower on the spectrum of charges, maybe?

I think that square has become so competitive in the merchant service space because they charge a flat 2.75% fee for everything and any kind of card whether debit or credit, everything is the same, so I would be surprised if you are actually achieving merchant service fees that are beating out square's flat rates...

Yeah it's roughly 115 basis points after everything... for example if my gross monthly CC revenue is $200k, my merchant fees come out to around $2500-$3000 all in after the garbage fees.

My current provider gunned hard for my business and gave me rock bottom rates to make me switch. After a few months, there were some server shut downs and they felt obligated to cut a lot of the PCI and junk fees out as well. The fee is also very low because 90% of the plastic that comes through is debit which has a very low surcharge.

Square's rates are terrible for my business, I'd never even consider them unless I had some low grossing business like a small cafe or food truck.


I am quite surprised by what you are saying, but yeah if you have taken into account all of the various fees, and that is what you are getting, that seems to be quite low, and maybe really big venders are also able to negotiate those kinds of rates. I think for average venders or even small business venders that may be processing anywhere between $50k and $1million a year, they are likely paying in the 3% to 6% arena... Maybe I am wrong, but whenever I have spoken with any small business owners, they seem to be experiencing those kinds of numbers and even thinking that square is a pretty good deal at 2.75%...

No need to go on about this except maybe to wait for jamaicabound to explain his credit card fees situation a bit further, if he wouldn't mind doing so... .which I do think that his various points stand regarding how regular individuals and even some sectors are either unbanked or they are getting screwed royally in various kinds of banking fees.. whether it is payday lenders, payment processors, remittance or other financial services for regular folks - and bitcoin is going to likely provide a lot of competition in respects to those kinds of various fees. You know another point regarding bitcoin fees and savings, I think that first world folks, whether in the USA or other financially advanced places, are likely not to benefit as much from the personal banking as compared with other places around the world, in which people are likely getting screwed more by their money devaluation and other banking inaccessability issues.
07-14-2016 08:53 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?
07-14-2016 11:12 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2849
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I generally enjoy listening to Joe Rogan on a variety of topics, and he has recently invited Andreas Antonopolis to appear again (for the fourth time) on September 7.

Will be interesting, since it will have been about 10 months since AA's previous appearance on the show, and Joe tends to get into considerable detail - his podcasts tend to be between 2 and 3 hours, so likely they are going to get into a view interesting areas of discussion.

https://news.bitcoin.com/joe-rogan-excited/
07-16-2016 06:13 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-14-2016 11:12 PM)nmmoooreland20 Wrote:  Really want to buy some Ether on Ethereum, but can never get the chain to fully download. Not using an SSD, so that might be the problem. Anyone else run into this?


I think that I may have heard of Ethereum....

It's one of those crypto currencies, no? Kind of like bitcoin, but not?

I kind of recall that there could be some kind of relationship to bitcoin.
07-16-2016 06:17 PM
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