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Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
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Mr. Accuride Offline
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Post: #351
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 12:06 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  No there aren't. This is the best bet I've seen in 7 years as a pro.

Honestly, I have to agree with this. The line has reached absurdity.

To put it in perspective, Mayweather-Pacquiao closed at -330 or thereabouts in favor of Mayweather, which is only ~3% less than the current line against McGregor. No matter what you may think of McGregor, he is not anywhere near Pacquiao's universe.

Even if you want to graciously think of McGregor as a top level amateur boxer, the difference between top level amateur and world class level is extremely wide. Anyone who use to compete in something at a top amateur level and have also competed against world class level before can attest that their chances of beating someone in the world class level is 5% or less. So it's not that McGregor's chances are zero, it's more of assuming that even if he has reached top level amateur or even low level pro in boxing skill, he is still not winning 1 out of 5 against world class talent.

If the line stays below -500 going into the weekend, I'm going to sink six figures into Mayweather. I'm hoping that all the Irish tourists will drive down the price even more during the next few days. Unless McGregor wins by decision or the end result is a split decision, even if McGregor somehow wins, losing six figs on this wouldn't bother me at all.
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2017 01:35 AM by Mr. Accuride.)
08-22-2017 01:32 AM
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Peregrine Offline
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Post: #352
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Accuride, thoughts on line movement as we approach Saturday and even live betting? I've already deployed 30% of my money and trying to decide when to fire the remaining 70.
08-22-2017 01:39 AM
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Mr. Accuride Offline
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Post: #353
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 01:39 AM)Peregrine Wrote:  Accuride, thoughts on line movement as we approach Saturday and even live betting? I've already deployed 30% of my money and trying to decide when to fire the remaining 70.

Sharps usually shut the door somewhere between an hour and 15 min beforehand, depending on what other games are available.

Then again, with the volume of betting right now there could also be a bunch of tourists flooding McGregor at that time too so that general rule might not even apply.

I honestly don't think you could go wrong betting a few hours prior, although you might not get the best line if massive amounts of tourists really do show up to bet.
08-22-2017 01:45 AM
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Peregrine Offline
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Post: #354
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
When you say tourists, are you referring to Vegas betting? I'm betting online, I can't imagine tourism would be a major factor.

Mayweather odds currently at -334 on bet365.
08-22-2017 09:04 AM
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Tayo Offline
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Post: #355
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
The fight is going to be fixed.
08-22-2017 09:31 AM
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booshala Offline
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Post: #356
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 01:18 AM)Rush87 Wrote:  
Quote:"A good bet has less assumptions about variables"? Gimme a break man: in one corner you have someone who's never boxed professionally and has lost three times in a sport where he's seen as the dominant fighter in his weight class... versus arguably the greatest technical boxer who's ever lived and is undefeated 49-0. And they're competing in the latter's sport.

His losses in MMA have almost zero to do with his boxing fight. His most recent loss was to Nate Diaz. Nate is one of Andre Ward's main sparring partners and someone who has had many reputable boxing experts say he would be top ten at LHW [In boxing].

Quote:If someone is being arrogant and/or making assumptions, it's the guy who is convinced that Mcgregor has a "good chance" of knocking Mayweather out... which is the only scenario I can see Mcgregor winning.

There are very few people outside casuals saying Conor has a good chance of knocking out Floyd. In fact, all I hear is the opposite. "This is a joke". "Conor won't even land a punch". In fact, in this very thread, when I have stated Conor has less than a 1% chance, it still riles up boxing fans. Isn't that ridiculous? And this is the consensus. It's ignorance at it's finest.

Quote:Finally, if you think $1000 is a large sum of money, you're right, you should probably leave the betting for the big boys.

I'm sorry but this quote here is just pure faggotry. We're talking about forum members betting on a fight. There's nothing worse than 'big dicking' on the internet.

Of course if you're a baller with money to spend then there is easily enough reasoning to bet but if you're the average dude earning 50k, $1000 is a lot of money to outlay comparative to your wage.

My biggest issue with this entire fight is that if there is a solitary opinion outside 'Conor won't land a single punch' everyone gets their panties in a twist. It's ridiculous.

Your reasoning is all over the place and I can't really figure out what point you're trying to make. You admitted that Connor has a 1% chance of winning, so Floyd has a 99% chance. 99% is higher than 70%, correct? Cuz that's the chance of victory that some online books are implying at a -335 line. What's your reasoning that it's not a good bet when you're getting WAY better than true odds? Any examples of a superior bet out there right now?

Also simultaneously saying that $1000 is a lot of money but a $270 return isn't is a strange contradiction in my book. It's my belief that the guy making $50k a year is going to enjoy a "free" $270 meal a lot more than the guy making $500k annually.

Two of my friends who make less than I do are straight up maxing out their home equity lines to bet on this fight. I don't consider myself a huge bettor, but I'm going to throw as much discretionary cash at this as possible without risking my livelihood. Re: big dick faggotry - I admit I was being dismissive, but you sound like a scrub, or someone who's not familiar with sports betting except for 1:1 bets with a buddy.

I recall you mentioned you've trained MMA before, which probably colors your POV, especially with "Connor won't even land a punch" comments. That's understandable that you get angry, you're repping your shit. But if you're letting that get in the way of making a smart money play, that's ultimately detrimental to you. I guess we'll see who's right this Saturday.
08-22-2017 01:40 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #357
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Any good recommendations for betting online in the Usa? .....our gambling laws make no sense
08-22-2017 02:34 PM
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rungoodinc Offline
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Post: #358
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Bovada is the only reliable online option for US. They always pay out although it usually takes a week or two. They send you a check in the mail. Gotten paid plenty of times and never had any issue other than the wait.

https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P1D28609/j...id=rafcopy

Use that link so I can get a bonus please. Appreciate it!!!
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2017 03:40 PM by rungoodinc.)
08-22-2017 03:38 PM
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Peregrine Offline
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Post: #359
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Looks like it's starting to swing back. -350 for Money.
08-22-2017 09:58 PM
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Chowder Head Offline
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Post: #360
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Mystic Mac says McGregor KOs Mayweather in 4. The Mystical One has never been wrong. BOOK IT!

"To be underestimated, is an incredible gift." Rackham
08-22-2017 10:25 PM
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IvanDrago Offline
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Post: #361
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 10:25 PM)Chowder Head Wrote:  Mystic Mac says McGregor KOs Mayweather in 4. The Mystical One has never been wrong. BOOK IT!

[Image: _89013155_hi031838844.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2017 10:29 PM by IvanDrago.)
08-22-2017 10:28 PM
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Chowder Head Offline
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Post: #362
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 10:28 PM)IvanDrago Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 10:25 PM)Chowder Head Wrote:  Mystic Mac says McGregor KOs Mayweather in 4. The Mystical One has never been wrong. BOOK IT!

[Image: _89013155_hi031838844.jpg]

Except that time. DAMN YOU DRAGO!

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08-22-2017 11:17 PM
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ProGambler Offline
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Post: #363
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Skybet are offering 6/1 +600 for Mayweather to KO him in 4 rounds. Very strong bet for those that can bet with them.
08-23-2017 08:25 AM
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DamienCasanova Offline
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Post: #364
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-23-2017 08:25 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  Skybet are offering 6/1 +600 for Mayweather to KO him in 4 rounds. Very strong bet for those that can bet with them.

Sounds like a risky bet, that's why it's 6 to 1. Mayweather hasn't KOed anyone in under 4 rounds since the 90s when he was starting his career. Mayweather is a decision fighter, and it's doubtful he has the power to KO the heavier fighter McG, especially that early. He's far more likely to slip everything Conor throws and pick him apart with jabs over 12 rounds...most Pro Gamblers know this. Why not just take the ML for a Very strong bet?
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2017 02:24 PM by DamienCasanova.)
08-23-2017 01:30 PM
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017




Shane Mosley:
Connor doesn't even have puncher's chance
Can't conceive how Floyd loses
Will be disappointed if Floyd doesn't stop
Floyd will K.O. Connor by 5-6th round
Connor will be surprised by the power of Floyd's punches
08-23-2017 02:10 PM
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Player_1337 Offline
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Post: #366
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
How much are you guys wagering (roughly), on who and via what source?

ABC
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2017 03:17 PM by Player_1337.)
08-23-2017 03:17 PM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
I got about $350 on Mayweather. Got it at -335 through Bet365 so I stand to win slightly more than $100 if he wins.
08-23-2017 04:42 PM
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Rossi Offline
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Post: #368
RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Fight is on Saturday but what time (NYC)? Does it start at 10 pm?
08-23-2017 04:54 PM
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beta_plus Offline
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Optimus Prime vs. The Terminator - Winner?
I don't really care that much about boxing or mma, but the appeal of the this for someone like me is that it immediately appeals to my 9 yr old brain asking "Who would win in a fight? Han Solo or Indiana Jones?".
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2017 05:11 PM by beta_plus.)
08-23-2017 05:10 PM
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Transsimian Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
McGregor has never been knocked out with 4lb gloves, so 8lb gloves will be a non issue. FMJ isn't known for his knockout power.

I'm betting on them going the distance with Floyd winning.

I cannot see any likely way McGregor would win, though there is always the chance he'll chimp out after being punched too many times by FMJ and go full mma on Floyd. Remember he's spent his whole life training his reflexes to respond in a certain way, so boxing will feel unnatural to him.

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08-23-2017 05:38 PM
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IvanDrago Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-23-2017 05:38 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  McGregor has never been knocked out with 4lb gloves, so 8lb gloves will be a non issue.

[Image: Boxing_640x360_cy5gn9ji_uxeplh9d.jpg]
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2017 06:52 PM by IvanDrago.)
08-23-2017 06:20 PM
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Graft Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
10k on Mayweather.

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08-23-2017 06:45 PM
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Matsufubu Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
Guys, shut up about what you've bet on the fight. However rich you are there's always a lot of people far richer, so stop with the dick swinging. Nobody cares.
08-23-2017 07:03 PM
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IvanDrago Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-23-2017 07:03 PM)Matsufubu Wrote:  Guys, shut up about what you've bet on the fight. However rich you are there's always a lot of people far richer, so stop with the dick swinging. Nobody cares.

You went in to a thread with Mayweather and/or McGregor fans and weren't expecting people to embellish and fib on how much money they have in the bank? Smile Smile Smile
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2017 07:11 PM by IvanDrago.)
08-23-2017 07:09 PM
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Graft Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-23-2017 07:09 PM)IvanDrago Wrote:  
(08-23-2017 07:03 PM)Matsufubu Wrote:  Guys, shut up about what you've bet on the fight. However rich you are there's always a lot of people far richer, so stop with the dick swinging. Nobody cares.

You went in to a thread with Mayweather and/or McGregor fans and weren't expecting people to embellish and fib on how much money they have in the bank? Smile Smile Smile

Just answering a previous question and continuing the convo. I'm not rich and I don't talk about how much money I have.

I built this empire and I did it by myself. Nobody did it for me. Not Ivana, not Marla. Nobody! ~Donald Trump

As poorly as women are doing, men are doing ten times worse.
08-23-2017 07:50 PM
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