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Australian Stock Market
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Australian Stock Market
The LNP (The "conservative" party) won the federal election in Australia last night. Investors sigh a breath of deep relief. If the Labour party (communist lefty scum) won the election they were planning massive tax increases for a large number of investors (higher capital gains taxes, scrapping of negative gearing, and scrapping of franking credit refunds). Investors have dodged a massive bullet.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2019 07:49 AM by Australia Sucks.)
05-19-2019 07:49 AM
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BigTedSven Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Australian Stock Market
Hi guys,
Just want to drop and let you know about a company I am invested in called Neometals.
Obviously DYOR but these guys have been paying nice dividends for a while now, with the most recent being 4c. Currently trading at 23C with some solid projects on the cards for the future, and plenty of cash on hand compared to the market cap.
Worth a look if you are into gambling.
05-21-2019 09:47 PM
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BigTedSven Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Australian Stock Market
Typo, most recent dividend was 2C.
05-21-2019 09:48 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Australian Stock Market
This information was part of a presentation last week at the 2019 Strategic Investment Conference in Dallas, Texas. I am not saying that I agree with the analysis (I do not know enough about the state of Australia's economy), I simply present the information for what it is worth.

Quote:Let’s start with Grant Williams, seasoned asset manager and author of the highly acclaimed newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm...

Grant delivered one of the most memorable (and hugely entertaining) SIC presentations. In it, he focused on Australia’s developing economic crisis and offered a grim outlook for the next 6–12 months.

What’s going to happen in Australia is likely to mirror the US financial crisis in 2008–09... and those who see it coming will be able to invest accordingly, for outsized gains.

Australia hasn’t seen a recession in 28 years. China’s insatiable demand for both Aussie commodities and real estate has fueled a massive bubble in the housing sector. That bubble is about to pop.

One million households are now under mortgage stress and unable to keep up with their financial commitments. Many mortgages are interest-only, and all are full recourse, meaning the borrower cannot simply give the keys back to the bank and walk away.

Residential mortgages make up 70% of all Australian bank loans. There are relatively few banks in the country, and all are considered too big to fail.

As the government attempts to avoid disaster, Australia’s currency will suffer—which is one way to profit.

I can’t repeat all the data Grant presented, but he has convinced me that Australia is headed for a banking crisis.

If this information is true, it sure sounds quite similar to the prelude to the 2008 U.S. mortgage crisis.
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 10:02 PM by Tail Gunner.)
05-21-2019 10:00 PM
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Bogart Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Australian Stock Market
I wouldn’t be so worried - the US financial crisis was only possible because of the junk bonds and security products that the big banks and institutions were able to create due to the watering down of financial regulstions by lobbyists (the gutted glass stiegele).

Watch the big short etc for an easy to digest version.

We have a much stronger level of financial regulation. The real issue is the economy under the Morrison government isn’t going to receive much stimulus and there won’t be any real significant investment in RandD etc in growth sectors.

Housing prices will be deflated for a few years in syd and melb so getting into property sometime in the next two year is a better play - or looking for stocks that have large realestate portfolios.

For stocks I’d avoid the big banks atm as interest rates will fall. The play for the last few years has been us exposure via int based or diversified stocks or proxy indexes. The dollar is still falsling but my money is on a pivot to the EU as I think brexit won’t be as bad as the FTSE is predicting, and the pound will remain strong.

TLDR don’t worry won’t be that bad, get yourself some British stock.
05-22-2019 10:54 PM
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Australia Sucks Offline
Kingfisher
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Post: #106
RE: Australian Stock Market
Tail Gunner I think at this point in time its absurd to compare Australia to U.S.A. in 2008. Firstly look at default rates on mortgages. They are still extremely low by historical standards.

"Mortgage stress" is not as relevant an indicator as people think it is. Default rates are much more relevant. Australia if you look at how much money Australian mortgage holders have in offset accounts (they are well ahead on interest payments).

Also interest rate cuts are on coming in Australia over the next 12 months. This should provide a floor of support for the housing market.

The elevated number of interest only loans were issued well over 2 years ago. In the past 12 months interest only loans have become far less common (as a % of new mortgages written).

Lending standards are relatively stringent in Australia and have been even more so for over 12 months now. This is not the typical loose bubble style lending you see immediately preceding a crash.
05-23-2019 05:45 AM
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Mig Picante Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Australian Stock Market
Australia doesn't have non-recourse loans like the USA, so the banks exposure is not comparable, but writing a story like that wouldn't make money for a writer.

These stories are peppered with phrases like 'if what I believe is true" to get them off the hook. It's hard to say they were making a statement.
05-24-2019 07:16 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Australian Stock Market
The ASX has some very interesting opportunities in the small cap space.

For example sunscreen manufacturer Advance Nanotek (ANO) has risen 623% year to date!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ANO.AX?p...c=fin-srch
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2019 02:32 AM by BB1.)
05-25-2019 02:31 AM
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outback Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Australian Stock Market
No recession. The RBA Put is in place. AUD will continue to fall to give the illusion of economic growth and keep unemployment trending lower.

Buy the ASX - it's broken out if an 11 year range, and only because the RBA wil continue to devalue the AUD.
05-25-2019 02:33 AM
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Mig Picante Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Australian Stock Market
The RBA doesn't need to devalue the AUD, Australia runs a persistent current account deficit (We're fucked).

Australia imports everything, including its population and exports unimproved commodities, energy and higher education services which are basically a visa program for people wishing to enter the country.

In my opinion, Aus needs to develop a local industry where it adds value before exporting goods.
I have my fingers crossed for burgeoning local industries in lithium and rare earths.
05-25-2019 03:51 AM
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Australian Stock Market
A stock I recently took a small (less than a 0.5% position) in around current prices is Icar Asia (ASX: ICQ).

Please note this stock is highly speculative. I would take a position size of no more than 1% if you are going to buy into it.

They are a car listings with a similar concept to Carsales.com.au except they operate in Asian markets instead of Australia. They are market leading in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Carsales.com.au has a market capitalization of over $3 billion AUD and these guys (Icar Asia) are only at less than $100 million market cap. Australia has a population of around 25 million. Malaysia plus Thailand plus Indonesia combined are a population of over 365 million. Even though those markets have a poorer population and lower car ownership percentages and are less developed in terms of internet usage of such classified type websites (compared to Australia) the long-term opportunity is enormous given the large addressable market and the growing income levels and growing internet usage. Being the market leader and having a strong share registry puts the company in a strong position.

If you look at the share registry the major shareholders (as per the previous annual report):

Catcha Group: 28.66%
Carsales.com 13.16%
PM Capital 8.09%
Australian Foundation Investment Company 4.99%

Catcha group is a very successful investor in Asian listings websites "Catcha Group is Southeast Asia’s leading internet group. We build and invest in disruptive internet companies across emerging markets globally, where we deploy capital and resources towards the creation of transformational value propositions solving fundamental societal problems. Our historical focus has been in online classifieds, new media and OTT where we have successfully taken 5 companies from startup to IPO.

The Group was established in 2004 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia."

Carsales.com.au (Carsales.com just redirects to Carsales.com.au) is Australias leading car classifieds website.

PM Capital and AFIC are long-term focused fund managers and both have a somewhat reasonable track record.


Malaysia and Thailand just turned cash flow positive in the last quarter, and I therefore predict the overall company will be cash flow positive within 12 - 18 months.

Cash revenue for the company was up 25% quarter on quarter
"Cash receipts from customers in Q1 2019 of A$3.8million, up A$0.8m or 25% versus Q42018"

I should add that they currently have a strategy of focusing on quality/profitable customers hence listing numbers look weak despite good revenue growth. For example they said this about Malaysia "The strategy to continue towards listing quality resulting in deletion of low quality or sold listings resulted in a 20% decrease year on year in listings for March 2019."

There are some risks to this strategy of course because you need scale/volume and network effect for this type of business to be successful. At some point they need to start growing listing numbers again. This is an area that must be watched closely.


Just another reminder: This is stock is risky and highly speculative!
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2019 06:17 PM by Australia Sucks.)
05-25-2019 05:32 PM
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Australia Sucks Offline
Kingfisher
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Post: #112
RE: Australian Stock Market
The stock price of ICQ (refer to above post is $0.24 AUD now) was $0.235 on Friday. I think on a ten year outlook the return from today's prices could be many hundreds of percent (of ncourse with huge risks though).
05-27-2019 02:46 AM
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Australia Sucks Offline
Kingfisher
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Post: #113
RE: Australian Stock Market
BB1 what markets do you invest in? U.S.A., Australia and Canada? Any others? What made you interested in the Australian stock market?
05-27-2019 02:48 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #114
RE: Australian Stock Market
(05-27-2019 02:48 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  BB1 what markets do you invest in? U.S.A., Australia and Canada? Any others? What made you interested in the Australian stock market?

I currently own stock listed in USA, Australia, Canada and UK.

For the USA I am primarily invested in disruptive companies like The Trade Desk, MongoDB and Alteryx because wall street does not know how to value these type of companies - look at the massive gains in Netflix and Amazon over the past 10 years for how this plays out.

I like the Australian market because there are much less analysts rating stocks than in the USA, so in the small/micro cap arena there are more market inefficiencies.
(This post was last modified: 05-27-2019 06:39 AM by BB1.)
05-27-2019 06:38 AM
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UnW Offline
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Post: #115
RE: Australian Stock Market
Vocus Group shares jumped 17% today

I've had some since January (when they were around $3) and presently trading at $4.55 due to the bid EQT made.
05-27-2019 07:16 AM
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Mig Picante Offline
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Post: #116
RE: Australian Stock Market
RBA cut the interest rate in a move that was overdue
XJO at a 5 year high. I think asset prices will go even higher.

I want to get rich! I intend to keep plowing money into the market.
06-04-2019 08:36 AM
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BB1 Offline
Robin
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Post: #117
RE: Australian Stock Market
(05-27-2019 06:38 AM)BB1 Wrote:  
(05-27-2019 02:48 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  BB1 what markets do you invest in? U.S.A., Australia and Canada? Any others? What made you interested in the Australian stock market?

I currently own stock listed in USA, Australia, Canada and UK.

For the USA I am primarily invested in disruptive companies like The Trade Desk, MongoDB and Alteryx because wall street does not know how to value these type of companies

Alteryx (AYX) should have a great day today - Salesforce.com just announced they are buying Tableau (DATA) for $15.7 Billion!!
06-10-2019 06:54 AM
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #118
RE: Australian Stock Market
A ASX listed stock that I have previously mentioned Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) is worth buying now. Its a listed investment company that invests in Asian stocks. Its last traded price is $0.935 AUD Its trading at a discount to its net tangible assets (NTA) and is below its 2015 float price of $1.00. Asian stocks are on the nose presently as well as the fact that these guys have had some recent under-performance. An eventual recovery in Asian stocks coupled with a mean reversion of their performance relative to the benchmark will make this a winning investment.
(This post was last modified: 09-08-2019 05:13 AM by Australia Sucks.)
09-08-2019 05:12 AM
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BalanceLife Offline
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Post: #119
RE: Australian Stock Market
ASX is known for

- Low liquidity given its size, because many of the funds investing are retirement fund (some aim for the dividend) hence they usually buy and keep. This is not great for active traders who want to profit from volume. For a small investors like me it’s fine, but I will shun from small stocks in ASX as even my few thousand Aussie would be a substantial trade volume for the day if I decide to sell.

- Bootstrap for Nasdaq. Tech stocks that want to raise funds before a “real IPO” usually use ASX’s Catalyst (or something of that name) to list to raise a smaller round. They sometimes end up growing well and stay in ASX in eternity, or growing well and delist and head to Nasdaq. The sad thing is some tech companies use ASX to list when they are “neither here nor there” just to tell people they are a public company. This mentality has not helped with investor confidence and long term price growth.

Note: I don’t track stocks actively, but this is my take about ASX, I am sure I might be looking it via my own lenses.
(This post was last modified: 09-08-2019 06:21 AM by BalanceLife.)
09-08-2019 06:18 AM
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Mig Picante Offline
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Post: #120
RE: Australian Stock Market
Alright, it's been 3 months since my last post. I still want to get rich as fuck.

I'm putting about 50% of my income into dividend producing ASX stocks and using reinvestment to compound.
Portfolio is sitting at about $25k, I need to just keep going. At least some of the shares are coming up for CGT discount having held for 12 months.
I don't intend to trade though, need to let the strategy play out over a couple of years.

Anyone like anything in the ASX100 ?
09-24-2019 07:05 AM
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Australian Stock Market
Mig Picante generally the ASX 100 is barren hunting grounds. There are very few quality growing businesses in that list and the ones that are there such as CSL, Cochlear, ASX, REA group, etc are trading at absurd earnings multiples. If you want quality stocks at reasonable prices you may have to look beyond the ASX 100 to the mid and small cap companies and even the microcaps. The reason is Australia is a small market (25 million people compared to 300 hundred and something million in the U.S.) so big companies domestically focused companies tend to run out of steam in terms of finding new customers to sell to. And the international focused companies are often not big enough to compete effectively on the global stage albeit with a few exceptions such as BHP Billition, Rio Tinto, CSL, Cochlear, etc.

The only stock I like currently in the ASX 100 is Washington H. Soul Pattinson (ASX Code: SOL). I own the stock. On a sum of the parts valuation its currently undervalued. Its been paying dividends for decades and is a pretty conservative and boring stock, and its not a stock where you will double your money any time soon.
(This post was last modified: 09-29-2019 01:02 AM by Australia Sucks.)
09-29-2019 12:59 AM
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Australian Stock Market
Australian "growth" stocks are the very expensive compared to other markets. See this article:

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/our-grow...530-p51sml



If you read the article it will show a nice graph depicting this.

According to the article:
"High growth stocks in Australia now trade on a median forward price-to-earnings multiple of 39.8 times, having delivered an average share price return of 62 per cent over the past 12 months.

This compares with a global average of a multiple of 23.5 times. Australia’s median is also a full 25 per cent higher than the US, which is the second most expensive market for growth stocks, with an average P/E of 31.5 times."
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2019 12:29 AM by Australia Sucks.)
10-13-2019 12:28 AM
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