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Making Money 2017 Stock Market thread
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #551
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I read this comment in a market newsletter today. It shows just how zany the world (and changing market conditions) can get.

Quote:I can’t ever remember a time when we could have oil tankers being bombed or captured in the Strait of Hormuz plus weak oil prices … but that’s the case today.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 10:15 AM by Tail Gunner.)
08-07-2019 10:14 AM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #552
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
To me it is interesting to see how exciting every gets about such small dips. Seems like as the bull market goes on, the smaller a dip needs to be to start hearing "buy the dip".
08-07-2019 12:17 PM
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conspirator Offline
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Post: #553
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Argentina crashed 48% today
08-12-2019 04:38 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #554
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(08-12-2019 04:38 PM)conspirator Wrote:  Argentina crashed 48% today

I never understood who would buy 100-year bonds from a nation that defaults every twenty years or so. Bonds that mature in 2117. Think about that one! Nearly half the value of those bonds are now gone in only two years:

Quote:the 100-year government bond that Argentina sold in 2017—heavily oversubscribed amid optimism about Macri’s administration—sank sharply. The dollar-denominated bonds’ price dropped from 74 cents on the dollar at the end of last week to just 54 cents today.

https://qz.com/1686230/argentinas-100-ye...ion-shock/

People would rather have the financial insanity of socialism than the "misery" of living within their means.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 06:24 PM by Tail Gunner.)
08-12-2019 06:23 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #555
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
The Austria 100-year bond has done amazing,

^Passive investing likely has a bit to do with it. People just own baskets of stuff these days, not realizing that 5% of it is fucking worthless.
08-13-2019 09:18 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #556
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(08-13-2019 09:18 PM)godzilla Wrote:  The Austria 100-year bond has done amazing

How so? The yield for those Austrian bonds is now almost half of what it was just two years ago.

The Euro many not exist in twenty years, much less 100 years.

Quote:If you needed any more proof that the world of fixed income has gone mad in the rabid hunt for yield, look no further than the Republic of Austria. If you liked its 100-year debt issued two years ago with a 2.1% return, how about settling for the same maturity for 1.2% now? Yes, you read that right: A 100-year bond yielding about 1.2%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...ss-is-this


(08-13-2019 09:18 PM)godzilla Wrote:  ^Passive investing likely has a bit to do with it. People just own baskets of stuff these days, not realizing that 5% of it is fucking worthless.

I agree, but I think that it is even worse than that. I read this just recently.

Quote:More money is going to be lost by more people reaching for yield in this next high-yield debacle than all the theft and fraud combined in the last 50 years.

I can understand the plight of retirees who are struggling to live on today’s meager yields. Those high-yield funds have been so good for so long, it’s easy to forget how disastrous a bear market can be. But it gets worse.

Quick personal story, and I have to be vague about names here. Some bond issues have been bought in their entirety by a small handful of high-yield bond funds. The problem is that the company that issued these bonds has defaulted on them. Not just missed a payment or two, but full default. Their true value, if the funds tried to sell them, might be 25–30% of face if they actually traded, according to the people who told me this. But the funds still value them at the purchase price of $0.95 on the dollar.

How is it they’re still valued much higher? Because the funds haven’t tried to sell them. No transactions mean they can still be “priced” at the last trade, and since there have been no subsequent trades, there is no “mark-to-market” price.

If any of those few funds sold any of these bonds, it would set a “market price” and all would have to mark down the entire holding. So naturally, they aren’t even trying. They would rather hold these bonds at what they know, realistically, is a huge loss, than take the hit to their NAV.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontli...-the-chaos
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 09:41 PM by Tail Gunner.)
08-13-2019 09:36 PM
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godzilla Offline
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Post: #557
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
When the yield of the bond goes down. The price of the bond goes up. Austria 100-year bonds are up over 80%. That's a fantastic gain.


Is it a good investment? In a global economy, definitely not.
(This post was last modified: 08-14-2019 06:00 AM by godzilla.)
08-14-2019 06:00 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #558
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(06-14-2019 02:21 AM)BB1 Wrote:  
(06-12-2019 08:48 AM)uhriginal Wrote:  I like were $ZS is at right now and its growth potential. Would you recommend starting a position at its current price ~$75?

Zscaler (ZS) is a great business with amazing cloud based security solutions. I personally think the current price ($79) is very steep. You could open a partial position here, and wait for some better opportunities to build a full position.

Zscaler (ZS) is now available at $72. IMHO this is a reasonable price for such a high quality business.
08-19-2019 09:57 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #559
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  
(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify (SHOP) now at $389 - up 412% since my last post. Nice example of holding or adding to your winners, and not selling after a 50% or 100% gain.
08-22-2019 04:45 AM
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Moreless Offline
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Post: #560
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(08-22-2019 04:45 AM)BB1 Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  
(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify (SHOP) now at $389 - up 412% since my last post. Nice example of holding or adding to your winners, and not selling after a 50% or 100% gain.

I bought around $74 and sold for $160 thinking it couldn't keep going. Learning to take profits has been my hardest challenge. Now I need to learn 'when' to take them.
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2019 08:26 AM by Moreless.)
08-22-2019 08:25 AM
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Moreless Offline
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Post: #561
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I picked up some $ZS since it's been down for a bit now.
08-22-2019 10:14 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #562
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(08-22-2019 08:25 AM)Moreless Wrote:  
(08-22-2019 04:45 AM)BB1 Wrote:  
(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  
(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify (SHOP) now at $389 - up 412% since my last post. Nice example of holding or adding to your winners, and not selling after a 50% or 100% gain.

I bought around $74 and sold for $160 thinking it couldn't keep going. Learning to take profits has been my hardest challenge. Now I need to learn 'when' to take them.

When to take the initial money off the table is easy: take enough profit off the table to break even from the trade -- and then let the rest of your paper profit ride.

Warren Buffett: "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.".
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2019 10:22 AM by Tail Gunner.)
08-22-2019 10:22 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #563
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Brought shares in Alliance Data Systems (ADS) yesterday at $120.

Please note that Alliance Data is NOT my usual hyper-growth innovator type of company that I specialise in. Alliance Data is clearly a value stock, and I believe the current price offers a good margin of safety.
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2019 08:11 AM by BB1.)
09-04-2019 08:10 AM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #564
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
BB1, is this just a one off or are you looking more at value stocks at the moment and their long under performance.
09-04-2019 04:35 PM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #565
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(09-04-2019 04:35 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  BB1, is this just a one off or are you looking more at value stocks at the moment and their long under performance.

I find it hard to get excited about value stocks, but after about 10 years of value under-performing growth, it is probably worthwhile spending more time looking into them.
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2019 02:21 AM by BB1.)
09-09-2019 02:15 AM
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white22 Offline
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Post: #566
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Anyone buying ZS in the morning? 20% dip in after hours from earnings report.
09-11-2019 01:24 AM
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deneuk Offline
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Post: #567
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(09-11-2019 01:24 AM)white22 Wrote:  Anyone buying ZS in the morning? 20% dip in after hours from earnings report.

Yes
09-11-2019 05:32 AM
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Days of Broken Arrows Offline
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Post: #568
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
A drone strike just hit the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia (Saturday, Sept. 14). According to news sources, two places were actually hit: Abqaiq refinery, the world’s largest oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field, "a major site operated by Saudi Aramco."

Bloomberg Financial News says this will push the prices of U.S. oil/refinery companies higher. Some were already headed in that direction. Haliburton, for example, was spiraling downward, but recently had been up $3 a share from $17 to $20.

Two questions:

1). Does anyone here have a plan on how to play this? Energy MLPs? For me it's Haliburton and the refinery company Delek (DK).

2). Does anyone here trade in the pre-market hours. I'd like to get in early but spreads are usually insanely wide. Wonder if I should even bother getting up early for the pre-market.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2019 03:32 AM by Days of Broken Arrows.)
09-15-2019 02:42 AM
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Post: #569
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
You can long oil, long CAD/USD, or long XAU/USD however the latter I don't think it will move as much.

Being the currency market, you can trade today (Sunday) starting at 5pm EST.
09-15-2019 08:56 AM
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