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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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Neo Offline
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Post: #676
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
@JayJuan

Did you do all the verifications through coinbase? Once I did I was able to buy 0.1 instantly with no wait. Didn't check today though. I didn't mind doing them because I have no intention of using them for anything illegal so I don't care if they know who I am or not.

They did cancel my first transaction saying it was 'high risk', but I emailed them and the others went through fine.

Before the instant transactions it was taking about 4 days. It was annoying, but I'm not day trading with these, I'm going to use them for some small transactions and buy and hold the rest.

I'm hoping that the entrepreneur.com article is true and wall street gets involved with large sums of $$$, I think all this news is a positive sign and the price will continue to rise.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2013 04:11 PM by Neo.)
12-14-2013 04:10 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #677
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 02:23 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  If there's a wait to buy them on coinbase wouldnt that mean the price is going up?

My Coinbase NOTICE on my account went away, and I was able to make my daily purchase. Which is really a relief b/c I did NOT want the hassle of having to buy BTC at a higher price. I do pay 1% fee for each Coinbase transaction from fiat to BTC; however, if I can time my buy fairly decently, then I can feel o.k. about the 1% fee b/c I have been fairly successful at buying during dips.

It may be true what Coinbase said in their NOTICE about reaching their daily BUY limit (and the way the NOTICE was phrased gave me the impression that they have an overall limit for all account holders, the NOTICE was NOT targeted at my buying for the day, b/c I had NOT yet bought for the day) or maybe it was just a glitch in the Coinbase software.

In any event we are back in business, and I would imagine that these kinds of glitches are going to be resolved in the future, and competition will be available so a guy will NOT be stuck with only one decent source for making transactions from fiat to BTC and vice versa.

To attempt to address your question, I am still bullish on BTC, but who knows in the short term, as Friheten said, the negative news is really NOT that negative at the moment and even during the last week, but BTC has been fairly flat for nearly three days.. and if anything a slightly lowering trend over the three days.. but only slightly b/c all of my transactions in the past 3 days have been in the mid $800s.
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2013 04:20 PM by JayJuanGee.)
12-14-2013 04:15 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #678
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 04:10 PM)Neo Wrote:  @JayJuan

Did you do all the verifications through coinbase? Once I did I was able to buy 0.1 instantly with no wait. Didn't check today though. I didn't mind doing them because I have no intention of using them for anything illegal so I don't care if they know who I am or not.

I have kind of figured out the verification process, and what that seems to mean. My very first transaction took 5 business days to be processed, and then i read that if I do the verification process that I could instantly purchase. So, within those first few days after opening the account, I did the verification process, which allowed me to instantly purchase up to .1 BTC per week, but only after the first transaction went through. So actually, nearly all of my purchases of BTC took place after the first week b/c Coinbase would NOT allow instant purchases, even with delayed delivery, until that first transaction went through. So now, i am in the stage of being able to buy .1BTC instantly once a week, but I can buy up to 10BTC per day, with delayed delivery (4 business days).

The second level of verification goes through Coinbase after having an active account and otherwise being verified for 30 days. At that point, I will be able to purchase up to 10BTC per week instantly, but my max allowable purchase amount will remain at 10BTC per day. Anything beyond the 10BTC per week, will be delayed delivery. My personal guideline on investing, since I prefer to do dollar cost averaging is maximum of $1500 to $2000 per week, so unless BTC price goes down to $200 per BTC, I do NOT anticipate reaching those maximum levels - though if BTC were to go down to $200, I may make an exception and invest more... it will depend upon the reason(s) for such a dramatic decline and whether the BTC fundamentals were still in good shape.


Neo: I would suggest NOT to get too dismissive of the motives of various people to attempt to remain quasi anonymous in his/her transactions... like dealing with cash. There are a lot of good reasons to preserve such a right to be able to accomplish such anonymity through electronic currency. The USA is becoming increasingly zealous about this invasion into our privacy under the guise that we are engaging in criminal and/or nefarious activities, such as drug dealing or child molestation.... just inflammatory attempts to denigrate BTC and denigrate the desire that people have to maintain some privacy. If it would have been easier for me to cheaply acquire BTC without having to go through extensive registration of my information, I would have chosen that other route.. and my motives are NOT criminal or child molestation or any of that either.... the USA govt is requiring Coinbase to engage in this. Anyhow, the best way to rob a bank is to own one (there is a book with that title by william black).. meaning that the rich are privileged in this regard.





(12-14-2013 04:10 PM)Neo Wrote:  They did cancel my first transaction saying it was 'high risk', but I emailed them and the others went through fine.

I wonder what "high risk" means? At first you had NOT verified anything, such as maybe you did NOT confirm your e-mail or something? I verified as much as I could nearly right away.. and I was drawing from my bank and had given them my e-mail and referred friends and then a few days later gave them my credit card.



(12-14-2013 04:10 PM)Neo Wrote:  Before the instant transactions it was taking about 4 days. It was annoying, but I'm not day trading with these, I'm going to use them for some small transactions and buy and hold the rest.

it is only .0002 BTC (about $.17) to transfer BTC from Coinbase to BTC -e. Accordingly, you may want to consider setting up a BTC -e account or some other account on some exchange in order that you may have some trading options in the even that you would like to pull that trigger at some point in the future. But, I understand, to each his own in terms of comfort level, and it can be a bit time consuming to get involved in all these various ways and to learn a lot of these various systems. I would NOT want to spread myself out too much and then to lose some of my BTC b/c I was sloppy etc. I am trying to learn the various systems for storing and safeguarding BTC and some of this comes through transferring them around... and setting up wallets.... and trying to keep track.... very time consuming at this point, but maybe in the future some of this will become more user friendly as BTC gets more adopted.



(12-14-2013 04:10 PM)Neo Wrote:  I'm hoping that the entrepreneur.com article is true and wall street gets involved with large sums of $$$, I think all this news is a positive sign and the price will continue to rise.

I think that in the years to come, if we keep following BTC, there are going to be up and down developments, and ultimately for us investors, we want the trend to be sufficiently upward that our investment pays off, and even better if it goes higher than "sufficient" to cause greater returns for those of us who are currently buying or at least "in."
12-14-2013 06:21 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #679
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I really feel like I'm playing chess with the Chinese. I'll be all in usd in about an hour regardless of the outcome.
12-14-2013 06:26 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #680
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 06:26 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I really feel like I'm playing chess with the Chinese. I'll be all in usd in about an hour regardless of the outcome.

Good luck with that, and i hope that you are correct b/c I would really like to pick up some less expensive BTC in the coming weeks. But I fear that you may NOT be correct, unless there is a specific trigger that you have in mind.. b/c if you do, then I would probably sell a bit too, in order to make some profit when BTC comes back up...

I am just too nervous that there really is NOT any thing signalling BTC to go down in the short term... and to me, all the short term signals appear to be upward.... surely it would have been good to sell at $980 last week and to have acquired BTC at $850 this week, but who would have thunk? - not me.
12-14-2013 06:43 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #681
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Volume is what I'm watching. If it goes up about three dollars ill have my last batch sale cashed out.
12-14-2013 06:48 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #682
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
And what happened to fiatleak?
12-14-2013 06:49 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #683
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 06:48 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Volume is what I'm watching. If it goes up about three dollars ill have my last batch sale cashed out.

Yeah, if you have been itching to sell at anything above $885 in the past two days, you would have been out of luck and even with that it has been inching downward on pretty much a straight line in the past two days... currently hovering in the lower $850s... Maybe if you set a sell at $860 or possibly a little lower, you will be safe.. but if if it about to crash at any minute, then it is safer to just get out at $853 or something... I wouldn't .. but that's just me. and what do I know?
12-14-2013 07:09 PM
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samsamsam Offline
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Post: #684
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Random update on my efforts to build a rig. Started putting it together last night. I got the cooler master haf xb case a nice square box. Easy to work with. Despite having enough slots, etc. I could not pack 3 gpus in there. There would be no room between the three of them to let heat out. Also the gpu by the edge would cover a lot of the various plugs (audio usb 3,0, etc.) But you don't really need those if you are just mining. But still it was a friggin tight fit.

The build went great despite that (easy case to work with and had built one before). So today I was all excited to come load up the software and mine. But where I work you need to log in to get access to the network. I couldn't load the software without access to the internet. I thought about taking it home and playing with it there but realized that 1) too heavy to carry with piece of mind 2) tomorrow would be the only day I could return certain things within the time window 3)without the 3rd card my economics are all off.

I did a quick analysis my losses (aside from time) to send back items and restock and it is about 70 bucks. The GPU could probably get me 30 easily.

I haven't given up but it looks like it is a home rig and I am just gonna frankenstein something together. My buddy is supposed to give me parts tomorrow.

But this thing has definitely gone the hobby route. It was sort of that before - but with free power and a 3rd gpu I was gonna make a few hundred a month. And I would learn something new.

But the biggest lesson - I thought I covered all bases but the most simplest one which was understanding how to get internet access.

I could have gone the windows route for this rig but that would have been additional costs to incur and mess with ROI even more.

Anyway, a minor tangent on this thread. But I'll post up a pic of the milk crate rig when I finally get it done lol.

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(This post was last modified: 12-14-2013 08:05 PM by samsamsam.)
12-14-2013 07:14 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #685
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
^ Awesome! Keep us updated. I'm going to start mining some junk coin soon.
12-14-2013 07:22 PM
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Post: #686
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 07:22 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Awesome! Keep us updated. I'm going to start mining some junk coin soon.

Goofball, how is that awesome? LOL, just messing Biggrin. Just learning experiences. Really hard to rig up a professional looking setup cost effectively. The milk crate ghetto approach is the best bang for the buck (save money on case and cooling) but I can't do that at my office.

Anyone got spare pc sparts they don't need? LOL.

Fate whispers to the warrior, "You cannot withstand the storm." And the warrior whispers back, "I am the storm."

Women and children can be careless, but not men - Don Corleone

Great RVF Comments | Where Evil Resides | How to upload, etc. | New Members Read This 1 | New Members Read This 2
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2013 08:11 PM by samsamsam.)
12-14-2013 08:03 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Dude, if you lived near me I'd fund that entire project.
12-14-2013 08:14 PM
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-14-2013 08:14 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Dude, if you lived near me I'd fund that entire project.

That would be awesome. I wish I had that much time to run a setup like that. Got a day job and a ton of random projects going on.

But this would be sweet! But my payday is coming from other places. The ghetto rig is just to have a little skin in the madness, lol.

[Image: original.jpg]

Fate whispers to the warrior, "You cannot withstand the storm." And the warrior whispers back, "I am the storm."

Women and children can be careless, but not men - Don Corleone

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12-14-2013 08:30 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #689
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I never hit my mark on btc-e
12-14-2013 09:36 PM
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Post: #690
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Down to 830 and dropping. Short-term down swing?
12-15-2013 01:49 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-13-2013 02:18 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Why are you investing per day? You have some coins so why don't you chill and wait for crashes even if it takes a couple weeks?

This is good question, and warrants some explanation, even if at the risk of redundancy.

I invest on a daily basis based on: 1) BTC’s volatility, 2) a belief in the investment methodology of dollar cost averaging, and 3) a desire to front load my investing into BTC. My quasi-daily investment into BTC has allowed me to get in, presently, at a $913 overall average cost per BTC. Surely, my overall average cost per BTC could have been lower, if I had known when the market would go up and when it would have gone down, but so far, I have NOT been able to figure that out.

Frequently, dollar cost averaging (DCA) is employed on investments in which a guy will likely screw up if he were to attempt to time the market.

Usually DCA’ing is done on a periodic basis, such as once a week or biweekly or monthly. I invest daily because I presume BTC’s daily volatility, and I presume that volatility to be ongoing, at least for the next 6 months, and possibly longer. I believe that by 6 months, I will feel that I have a sufficient stake in BTC that I can discontinue daily investing and move to weekly or even biweekly investing.
With my investment into BTC, I am creating my own variation of DCAing because I am using trigger points that I described in my previous post, that allows me to NOT attempt to time, but to add value based on the occurrence of certain triggering events (kind of a hybrid of DCA and timing)… call me dumb.. to be employing a non-timing method with a form of timing. Sad

Though my general belief is that the BTC price is bullish in the long-term, I have NO real ideas about what BTC’s price is going to be tomorrow, two days, a week or a month from now.

My intention is to front load the investment to safeguard in the event that there is another burst in price – accordingly, I would want to have some stake in the game in the event that there is a burst in price. If there is a drop in price, I want to buy more, yet, I do NOT know if the price is going to continue to go down, so I will limit my daily maximum investment because I want to cut my losses by NOT buying too much at any given point.

All of us know that we do NOT really know when or if BTC is going to crash, and what exactly is a crash, until we are looking at the crash, after it had already occurred.

For example, remember a 24 hour period between December 5 and December 6 (BTW that was the first day that I had authorization on Coinbase to immediately buy BTC- though it would NOT be immediately delivered), the BTC price dropped from $1000 to $550, and none of us knew that $550 was the bottom because BTC had been falling so rapidly, and we did NOT know when it would stop. Accordingly, I did NOT buy a lot of BTC at $550, but I kept buying throughout that day while the price had been dropping, then BTC went up and up and up to nearly $1,000 for the next week, and I slowed down on my buying.

We know this above-described quasi-crash after the fact, but while we are in the midst of it, we gotta decide what we are going to do. Therefore, I have been sticking with daily monitoring and investing that I plan to spread out for about the next 6 months, though the more stake that I get in BTC, the more I can chill out (as El Mech says) about whether I invest daily or every few days or even weekly.


(12-13-2013 02:18 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Is there a way to put USD into BTC-E without converting to BTC first?

I had explored several ways to get dollars into BTC-e, and the cheapest, from my research, seems to be to buy BTC on Coinbase and then to transfer to BTC-e, and you already know that once it is on BTC-e, it is easy to convert back and forth… but on BTC-e, there is a .2% charge for each conversion. No matter what these various exchanges nickel and dime us to death on these fees, and the greatest fees seem to be initially getting the fiat currency into some BTC system and then getting it back out again into fiat.



(12-13-2013 02:18 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  If so I would do that, wait and pull the trigger.

It seems to me that you and I have different underlying presumptions about BTC prices and about any guy’s ability to time the market. I presume an inability to time the market and I am going to act accordingly, by employing dollar cost averaging (DCA) on a daily basis. Surely, either one of us could be correct, and you certainly are correct to suggest that if a guy times the market correctly, then he will make a HELL OF A LOT more money than by employing any kind of DCA method. I have very little confidence in my ability or even the ability of others to effectively engage in such timing, unless they possess some kind of “inside” information… therefore… daily DCA-ing for me.
12-15-2013 05:34 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #692
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-13-2013 02:58 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  May I ask what drives your belief that it will be at 1,350 at the end of 2015?

Sam (tres veces):
To frame a decent expression from Pants, I am picking that $1,350 number out of my ass, to some extent. I just thought about the high of $1,200 and then calculated an approximate 6% annual rate of return for two years based on that high. And, then I said to myself, that $1,350 amount seems achievable given my understanding of the fundamentals of Bitcoin (which is far from really knowing the technicalities of BTC. I know there are a lot of smart geeks working around BTC).

Of course, I anticipate that the amount that BTC reaches between now and the end of 2015 could fluctuate lower or higher through out the period, but I wanted to project a BTC price that, in the end would be a fair return on investment if the intial or the average investment were $1,200 per BTC. Yet, no matter what the BTC price at the end of 2015, I would have to consider my average rate of investment through out the period, and currently my average rate of investment is $913 per BTC. If at the end of 2015, my average remains at $913, then I would only need BTC price to be at $1,025 to achieve a 6% annual rate of return to achieve my minimum ROI goal – that is sort of a break even price. Of course, in part some of us are getting into BTC because we forsee a potentially for a much higher (higher than 6%) ROI in the next couple of years..

(12-13-2013 04:29 PM)pants Wrote:  What I want to communicate is, it´s a risky bet with the possibility of a really good pay off. And taking bets like these one will pay off in the long run, even if this one might drop dead. These are the opportunities to look ofter.

Pants:
I believe that you provided a very good frame work for thinking about prediction, risk and probabilities.

(12-13-2013 04:29 PM)pants Wrote:  40% Chance value falls to zero. A better crypto currency comes a long, technical weakness in the protocol, politics might trigger such a scenario.

Falling to zero will likely NOT happen in the short-term, and the longer that BTC systems are growing and being set up and supported, the tougher that it becomes that BTC will go to zero. There is a chance, as well, that the BTC market could remain a form of black market, and then hover at less than $100 per BTC… or some other black market amount which is greater than zero but much lower than the price that many of us invested.





(12-13-2013 04:29 PM)pants Wrote:  30% Chance value stays around 1000

20% chance it grows to 5000 (Media hype along with some large companies starting accepting bitcoin)

4% Chance for 20 000

3% Chance of 40 000 (Bitcoin takes 5% of golds value)

2% Chance 100 000 (Gold, western union, Widely used as a store of value)

1% (Tax heaven for bank accounts 30Trillion$ market) would result in 1.428.571,43USD/BTC

I cannot really quibble with these various odds on the bets, yet I believe that the longer the infrastructure is allowed to be created and built around BTC, the greater the odds that there will be some value between $1,000 and $100,000 per BTC. There may be some migration through the years in various alternative forms of cryptocurrency that may be built on or compete with BTC but keep BTC from rising too high.


(12-13-2013 04:29 PM)pants Wrote:  This is the game you want to be playing. If you could have a roulette table with these odds, I would go there playing every night.
On average one would be to earn 40%*0+30%*1000+20%*5000*4%*20000+3%*40000+2%*100000+1%1.400.500 = 19305USD/BTC. Again, don´t pay to much attention to the numbers, I just want to communicate even though the chance of total losses are huge, the high end makes up for it.

Yes with your overall conclusion, that this is the game that we should be in, even though individually, we may come to some different specific probability numbers.
12-15-2013 05:36 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #693
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-15-2013 01:49 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  Down to 830 and dropping. Short-term down swing?

Who knows? I saw it dip all the way down to $809, and then it sprung back up to $830. I was able to acquire a little bit of my daily BTC at $824
12-15-2013 05:45 AM
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Neo Offline
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Post: #694
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
To samsamsam and other miners, you guys look into these?

https://products.butterflylabs.com/homep...-card.html

https://products.butterflylabs.com/homep...-card.html

Pretty pricey, but also found this calculator.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Really seems to depend on what bitcoin's price does. I don't know anything about mining, but playing around with that calculator is interesting. Am I reading it correctly about those cards? They just plug into the USB port, is anything else needed besides a computer?
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2013 07:53 AM by Neo.)
12-15-2013 07:53 AM
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Neo Offline
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Post: #695
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Just did some quick calculations using the calculator and this chart that extrapolated the mining difficulty. Those mining cards are pre-order as well so won't reach the customers until February.

Basically doesn't seem worth it unless you want to spend some serious cash, or bitcoin price skyrockets.
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2013 08:32 AM by Neo.)
12-15-2013 08:25 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #696
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
The rest of my order has been filled at 853 I'm all in USD and waiting.
12-15-2013 11:08 AM
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Post: #697
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-13-2013 04:51 PM)Shotgun Styles Wrote:  I've tried to read this thread several times.

Every time I do I feel just a little bit more stupid.

I understand about 10% of what you're on about, the rest is over my head.

I agree that BTC is complicated and it may take some time to absorb the various technical aspects, but there is a lot of good information in this thread. Also, you may want to read some basic BTC information outlines, such as Wikipedia in order that you get some foundations. If you keep immersing yourself in various aspects of BTC, it will likely begin to sink in…. Each of us have different aptitudes; however, if we are either NOT ready for investing or NOT ready for learning, we may NOT be ready for BTC. I would NOT recommend for anyone to invest into anything that is completely out of his understanding - because in the end a guy needs to develop both an entrance strategy and an exit strategy… and NO ONE should invest any more than he can afford to lose.


(12-13-2013 06:48 PM)cardguy Wrote:  I am no expert. So don't expect me to back up any of this with some clever argument. Except to say that I am a member of 'the herd' - and as such my gut feelings are probably similar to alot of others as well. And once the herd starts moving in the same direction - it don't matter how smart you are. You better get out of the way.

Cardguy:

I think that you expressed the foundation for your belief well, and NO further explanation about how you arrived at your opinion is needed. You said that you arrived at your opinion based on a hunch.. and nothing wrong with that. We do that all the time, and each of us only has so much time to investigate our hunches.
Your description of a herd mentality is a partial explanation regarding motives for BTC pricing, and that herd mentality could justify a movement in BTC price in either direction, up or down. Accordingly, if we were still in the early stages of BTC infrastructure being built, then herd mentality may signify that 5 years from now, BTC takes off in the upward direction… and the herds follow. Or it coud be 1 year from now that BTC takes off or that it plunges… BTC is in a form of infancy, and the longer that something it is allowed to be in place, the less that any kind of herd mentality can affect it and it becomes less volatile.

(12-13-2013 07:13 PM)cardguy Wrote:  So - I wonder if the JP Morgan currency (or a different one?) will come along and beat out Bitcoins?

In the short to medium term, BTC is going to be on top, because part of the appeal of BTC is the lack of a specific sponsor… because nobody trusts any sponsor to employ appropriate limitations and openness on a competitive crypto currency…. Accordingly, any sponsor, such as JP Morgan, is going to have to build up a certain level of trust with the market – and yes, if an entity can build a large user base, then that alternative crypto currency could beat out BTC.

Let’s say for example, the US govt decided to discontinue being ridiculous with its printing of the dollar, and instead created a competing cryptocurrency that is very much designed like BTC to replace the dollar with limitation parameters and open source and maybe even appreciation in value over the years… etc etc.. then that kind of competitor could take the wind out of the sails out of BTC…… But, in my opinion, this kind of proactive creativity is NOT going to happen any time in the very near future involving the US Govt….. At this point, the US govt and various banking entities are scrambling and reacting and do NOT really know what to do..

(12-13-2013 08:42 PM)fortyfor Wrote:  About everyone else thinks as well, except for the dreamers
who bought a lot of Bitcoins and they are totally blinded by the
adrenaline ride, the greed is high and they fail to
see the hundreds of downsides of a virtual fiat currency
backed by nothing, which is highly unsafe and almost every economist
out there labeled it as unsafe and very risky:

This is how the bubble graphic looks like:

[Image: _71650444_bitcoin_daily_price_2013_464gr.gif]

Fortyfor:
That graph that you provided does NOT look correct. There have been a lot more ups and downs in the last few weeks. Anyhow, guys can go to the bitcoincharts.com website and play around with the time period that he wants to view b/c you can see in April 2013, BTC prices looked like the same exact bubble that is presented to us now, and NOW> that April 2013 rise in price appears just as a blip in the history of Bitcoin. In part, it depends on how a guy sets up the chart to make his argument… or how far in history he looks or if he is just looking at charts in the wrong kind of way, he may miss the big picture.




(12-13-2013 08:45 PM)fortyfor Wrote:  more Bitcoin warnings news, in all the big media outlets:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/201...-bitcoins/

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/20...ed-says-eu

http://business.time.com/2013/12/13/euro...n-dangers/

This is heavily being promoted by early Angel Investors who bought the bitcoin when it was about 5 or 6 cents. These early investors lobbied,bribed and influenced the media and internet forums to make this bitcoin popular and grow. This type of Ponzi is seeing its rise because of these early angel investors, the result of cartels laundering their proceeds from drugs,extortion and illegal gambling and people who are just basic suckers and gullible. Look at the Chinese government, they said it is not a currency and told their banks not to deal in bitcoins.

I’m NOT really clear about your goal here. Are you trying to save RVF members in this thread from the perils of BTC or what? You are NOT really providing helpful information because guys here are already partly in or are considering getting into BTC .. and you are just perpetuating mainstream propaganda that any of us could easily find by performing a google search. Your cited articles in the above post are saying nearly exactly the same thing about BTC news that just came out… So what?
Surely, as potential investors we need to weigh the pros and cons about getting into BTC as an investment; however, to me it does NOT seems to serve much purpose to have you coming in to this BTC thread and repeatedly calling us a bunch of fools and propagating information that we could easily find by doing a Google search on our own.

So, FortyFor, instead of just giving us a bunch of mainstream fear mongering, why don’t you provide some value to this thread – buy a bitcoin, and tell us about your experience or tell us about some alternative investment that is better than BTC that you are into that relates to the topics of this thread. It appears that you are NOT even considering getting into BTC, and you are providing us information that any of us can easily access through other mainstream sources, and in that regard, you do NOT really seem to be adding much value to come in to “save” us.

Well, anyhow, if you could describe what your purpose is in providing us with this information, then maybe we could better understand from where you are coming in your participation in this thread.
12-15-2013 11:45 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-15-2013 11:08 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  The rest of my order has been filled at 853 I'm all in USD and waiting.

I hope you are correct, b/c so far this morning, I cannot even fulfill my today's daily buy amount b/c BTC price has been going up, all morning.
12-15-2013 11:47 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Well it's 850 now anyway my logic: it's not moving fast now but if one or two big sell offs hit it's going to drop like a rock so I'm holding in USD
12-15-2013 12:31 PM
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-13-2013 11:21 PM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  I'd be willing to take a punt on Bitcoins becoming a spectacular success - IF (and that's a big IF of course) they do achieve wild success, you could see another 100x price increase over the next few years, topping out at US $100 000 per bit coin. Mind you, with all the current hype it's likely over-valued at the moment, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall back somewhat over the next few months, possibly even crashing to below $US 100 again. But over the long-term I guess it's going only one way...up.

I hope that you are correct about the drop to $100; however, I kind of doubt that we are ever going to see below $250 again, but what do I know: never say never.


(12-14-2013 03:43 PM)friheten Wrote:  I found out about bitcoins in November last year and thought it was a smart idea. Used it a couple of times on silk road and started following the price. As the price was increasing daily I decided to put 1000$ into it in the end of January, the price was then ~20$ and I got about 52BTC. I followed the bubble closely. But I was stupied and the day I woke up and the price was down like half the price I sold 15. But soon realized by mistake and bought back in. Lost 7BTC on that. But decided to put some more fiat in to cower it up. I did see this last bubble going of and posted about it here, http://www.blockedurl.com/forum/showthre...&pid=18248 on the 4th of November when they were 224$. Okay the bubble started earlier but I know it was going to explode when it passed the last ATH. I was a believer when I first entered and I am even more today. With all this new media attention the number of people who knows about it is huge.

Friheten:
Thanks for sharing your specific details, because it shows how it can be very difficult to invest in anything and to be practical regarding our living expenses – and frequently, the truth of the matter is that guys do NOT have a lot of spare money to invest and have to make withdrawals because of the expenses of life.

There are very few investments in which guys can make 50 times his original input within a year. Actually, it is pretty rare to get better than 50% ROI. Also, we do NOT know until retrospectively how well some asset performed or is going to perform – even though as you mention, it seems that currently the odds are still pretty good for BTC in the long run… who knows about the short run?… ….



I’m going to engage in a little hypothetical for a guy in a situation similar to Friheten in about the end of 2012 or early 2013, and let’s say that a guy had wanted to make his investment a little bit safer but overall he was bullish about BTC in early 2013 and he wanted to put some skin into BTC in such a way that was NOT going to feel too burdensome for him, and instead of investing $1,000 in one lump sum in January 2013, he would engage in dollar cost averaging strategy that was within his budget and spread over the year, and to invest $2,700 over totality of the year of 2013 from January to December (which he perceived as manageable, front loading the investment and really just side money for him).

Therefore, a guy in this mindset may have started off by investing a higher amount at $200 a week for six weeks, and thereafter, $100 a week for six weeks, and then maintaining a smaller amount by investing $100 per month ($50 every two weeks). This would add up to $2,700 for the year of 2013 and that investment would NOT have interfered in any major way with his lifestyle choices.


Here’s a rough outline of what a dollar cost averaging BTC investment may have looked like for $2,700 over the year of 2013:

1) 6 weeks at $200 per week = $1,200 - January to mid-February - $25 per BTC = 48 BTC

2) 6 weeks at $100 per week = $600 – mid-February to March - $35 per BTC = 17.143 BTC

3) 7 months at $100 per month = $700 – April through October $130 per BTC = 5.385 BTC

4) 2 months at $100 per month = $200 - November and December $700 per BTC = .286 BTC

End of December Total accumulated = 70.814 BTC

Now, if the price goes back up to $1200 and he decides to cash out, then he would have nearly $85,000, which is about 31 times his initial investment.

Of course, if any guy had invested $2,700 right from the beginning at $22 per BTC, he would have acquired 122 BTC and could have achieved 54X his investment at $1200 per BTC; however, many times guys are going to be too nervous to put in all of their investment at once and to keep it there and to cash out at the right time b/c of the timing concerns about buying too high, if the investment were a bubble. Accordingly, frequently some variation of dollar cost averaging will be more practical with many guys and not to interfere with his lifestyle and within a guy's risk tolerance.





@sam3, Friheten and Neo:
Even though I understand that mining is needed for the whole BTC infrastructure, yet to make any personal decision how to spend resources, mining seems less profitable than mere investing and trading and trading directly in BTC (except maybe for those who mined BTC in the very beginning… even though those miners may have been better off had they invested their resources into buying BTC rather buying equipment and mining it). I suppose the cheaper and quicker a guy can get the equipment, the better the potential payoff.
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2013 01:02 PM by JayJuanGee.)
12-15-2013 12:58 PM
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