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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #851
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-18-2013 06:39 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

(12-18-2013 03:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  If I had followed your suggestion about the clearly buy now based strictly on my bullish sentiment, then I would NOT have any money left b/c I would have bought all in at $1,200 (would not have been a good position to be in), and anyhow, as you seem to know, I am NOT investing in that kind of a way (which I have explained).

You seem to be purposefully simplifying about what I should do just to be argumentative or critical, b/c in some sense you seem to be suggesting that it does NOT matter whether I buy at $500 or $300, which we all seem to realize that buy in price does matter.

I'm saying if you're following DCA then why are you trying to time the market and hold back on your buying? If you're long-term bullish the price crashing like this is good for you, so this is definitely not the time to stop buying. The whole point of dollar-cost averaging is that it's impossible to perfectly time the market - so whether you think the bottom is $300 or $350 you keep buying as the price plunges to 500 and seems to keep dropping. I'm not being argumentative - you laid out your strategy pretty clearly in this thread, so follow it.

I'm in and long-term bullish. There's blood in the streets so I'm buying. If I lose everything so be it.

Thanks for the clarification.

I think that we are kind of on the same page then.. or at least in the same chapter.

I probably post so much here that even I cannot keep track of my meanderings. I have been buying more BTC as the price goes down, and currently I see bargain pricing, and I have been buying less BTC as the price goes up.

I have been learning as I go about the application of my own methodology b/c I have never done daily dollar cost averaging with this kind of extremely volatile asset before, so I have been making some adjustments as I go.

Also, I am currently motivated to buy in order to bring down my average cost per BTC – and my average BTC still remains in the upper $700s so NOW, BTC is a bargain. Probably, my next buy point is around $490, but if it becomes abundantly clear to me that the price is dropping lower than $490, then I am NOT going to buy at the higher price.


(12-18-2013 06:41 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  Manteau, do you elaborate somewhere why your bullish?

With all the alternative cryptos out there, I have a hard time seeing how BTC has any serious value whatsoever.

Even though you directed this question at Manteau, i believe that at the moment NONE of the alternative cryptos add up to the value of BTC - b/c BTC has been building a larger network and BTC is the main game in town.

The other currencies are largely coat tailing on BTC, and surely another alternative currency could take over as dominant.. but we are NOT there at this time.

Therefore, BTC is the main game in town, and if momentum shifts to another currency, then we may want to shift once we see that momentum... hopefully, in front of the crowd. Smile
12-18-2013 07:32 PM
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portofmanteau Offline
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Post: #852
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-18-2013 07:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Even though you directed this question at Manteau, i believe that at the moment NONE of the alternative cryptos add up to the value of BTC - b/c BTC has been building a larger network and BTC is the main game in town.

The other currencies are largely coat tailing on BTC, and surely another alternative currency could take over as dominant.. but we are NOT there at this time.

Therefore, BTC is the main game in town, and if momentum shifts to another currency, then we may want to shift once we see that momentum... hopefully, in front of the crowd. Smile


That's basically it - the other cryptos more or less track the BTC price, and the most valuable thing about these cryptos, as was pointed out before, is the network - so basically you just want to ride the one with the largest circulation, because it's going to be the most useful. The other ones are in a more speculative stage, and one of them might take off - I have been converting my BTC to LTC as well, in case LTC shoots up to 1/4 of BTC's price, as a lot of people seem to think, and becomes the accepted secondary currency. In general though there will be one currency to rule them all - BTC is certainly not the best one, but I'm betting that it's the "Facebook" - the one with a circulation large enough, and enough hype around its name, that any competitors face too much of an uphill battle to gain serious traction. Worth noting that cryptos are very similar to social networks in this way - they're only worth their network. No use holding one that no stores you know accept and no one cares to trade. Remains to be seen whether BTC turns out to be the myspace rather than the facebook, it's relatively early days but these things do move quickly and bitcoin has the best hype factor and by far largest market cap.

Reason to bet against it - it technically is pretty shitty. It takes an hour or more to do a transfer, compare this to credit cards which transact in seconds - this could work for online transactions and as a replacement for wires/international wires, but you're obviously not going to wait an hour in a store for your fucking payment to clear.
12-18-2013 07:53 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #853
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-18-2013 07:53 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 07:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Even though you directed this question at Manteau, i believe that at the moment NONE of the alternative cryptos add up to the value of BTC - b/c BTC has been building a larger network and BTC is the main game in town.

The other currencies are largely coat tailing on BTC, and surely another alternative currency could take over as dominant.. but we are NOT there at this time.

Therefore, BTC is the main game in town, and if momentum shifts to another currency, then we may want to shift once we see that momentum... hopefully, in front of the crowd. Smile


That's basically it - the other cryptos more or less track the BTC price, and the most valuable thing about these cryptos, as was pointed out before, is the network - so basically you just want to ride the one with the largest circulation, because it's going to be the most useful. The other ones are in a more speculative stage, and one of them might take off - I have been converting my BTC to LTC as well, in case LTC shoots up to 1/4 of BTC's price, as a lot of people seem to think, and becomes the accepted secondary currency. In general though there will be one currency to rule them all - BTC is certainly not the best one, but I'm betting that it's the "Facebook" - the one with a circulation large enough, and enough hype around its name, that any competitors face too much of an uphill battle to gain serious traction. Worth noting that cryptos are very similar to social networks in this way - they're only worth their network. No use holding one that no stores you know accept and no one cares to trade. Remains to be seen whether BTC turns out to be the myspace rather than the facebook, it's relatively early days but these things do move quickly and bitcoin has the best hype factor and by far largest market cap.

Reason to bet against it - it technically is pretty shitty. It takes an hour or more to do a transfer, compare this to credit cards which transact in seconds - this could work for online transactions and as a replacement for wires/international wires, but you're obviously not going to wait an hour in a store for your fucking payment to clear.


Though there are various user friendly difficulties that make BTC use frustrating, I do have the sense that the speed of payment issue will improve with innovations - even potentially the assistance of another crypto currency like ripple ... or some other means to speed up transactions... such as having trusted networks.
12-18-2013 08:11 PM
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GameTheory Offline
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Post: #854
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
JMHO viewing the charts, MAJOR support for BTC is at about $500. if it drops BELOW this amount then BTC could crater completely

it's at 505-515 now...

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(This post was last modified: 12-18-2013 08:32 PM by GameTheory.)
12-18-2013 08:29 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #855
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Do you guys want to pump and dump an alt coin on btc-e tonight? Better %! NVC?
12-18-2013 09:28 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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Post: #856
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Still in USD el machanico? Or NVC?
12-19-2013 07:28 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #857
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
NVC slowly pulling out though.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 08:03 AM by el mechanico.)
12-19-2013 08:01 AM
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AntiTrace Offline
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Post: #858
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

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12-19-2013 08:03 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #859
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?
I'm not sure. I just like the words pump and dump. Those altcoins swing with btc so why not?
12-19-2013 08:15 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #860
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I feel the crash is coming at any moment. right?

IN the last 12 hours we had a crash from $500 to $670, and about $100 of that upward crash was in the past 3 hours. Now we are back down to $630 - Woops, i spoke too soon, as I type, back up to $650... WTF? I'm NOT holding my breath on any crash b/c we cannot really predict this.




(12-19-2013 08:15 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  
(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?
I'm not sure. I just like the words pump and dump. Those altcoins swing with btc so why not?

There seem to be way too many small trades for any one person to be manipulating the market.. even though theoretically this one person manipulation theory is possible. This one person or small group of people manipulating is some kind of mainstream propaganda in my thinking.


And, we are really speculating, if we were to throw our assets into one of the alt coins... who knows which way any one of them is going at any moment..? sometimes better returns than BTC and sometimes NOT.

Now there is going to be luck with the alt coin strategy, and I cannot see how anyone could meaningfully advise on that - except possibly some kind of diversification - rather than balls to the walls moving of assets around. In my thinking most guys are gonna lose with that balls to the walls in alt coin strategy, unless extremely lucky.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 08:45 AM by JayJuanGee.)
12-19-2013 08:37 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #861
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

By the way, I have a current snapshot of about the past 15 hours on fiatleaks, and that snapshot shows the most trades being done in Chinese Yuan and second place is US Dollars (by about half). In my thinking if there were manipulation coming from one or a small group, that would probably come in US dollars rather than Yuan - but the dollar market is likely too consistent for manipulation. In other words, if there were some manipulation going on any given day, then it would likely show up in the volume at particular moments.

From other charts, we do see that volume of trade does go up drastically during times of extreme volatility - though that seems logically explained by herd mentality theory, rather than manipulation theory, right?

I'm just postulating b/c surely it is possible to have some manipulation going on b/c BTC is quite small as compared with almost any other currency that trades trillions a day, and at most BTC may get half a billion in trade in a day.. ... IN any event in my thinking, manipulation still does NOT seem to be a plausible explanation for what is going on with the BTC price.

And, no one in this thread has really said yet what this fiatleaks data means. Does it show just one side of the ledger currency going into BTC, without showing currency going out of BTC? B/c if you look at the chart, it just shows positives (+)s. It does NOT show (-)s. It would be great if some guy provided some insight on explaining the data on fiatleaks.


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12-19-2013 09:36 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #862
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
^ Ok this is what I'm having a problem with. How are they converting Yuan? The Government said they can not. Does Chinas numbers here represent SELL and convert back to Yuan???
12-19-2013 09:41 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #863
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 09:41 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Ok this is what I'm having a problem with. How are they converting Yuan? The Government said they can not. Does Chinas numbers here represent SELL and convert back to Yuan???

Actually was that inability to convert from BTC to Yuan effective immediately?

I thought that there was some phasing in of the prohibitions that the theory was that the chinese would be taking their money out of BTC until the end of January b/c thereafter the conversion from BTC to Yuan would become more impeded after the end of January.

Now, if there were any manipulation, it could be that the Chinese scare was a form of manipulation in order to get the price of BTC to come down in order that more Chinese could buy into BTC at a lower price... who knows? I really cannot see Chinese regulating BTC out of existence in their neck of the woods... b/c in the end the chinese wants to have vehicles outside of the dollar.. which includes gold and BTC
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 09:54 AM by JayJuanGee.)
12-19-2013 09:48 AM
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Maciano Offline
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Post: #864
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Fiatleak is both SELL and BUY.

The ‘leak’ idea comes from the idea that part of fiat money’s purpose, i.e. currency, is leaking to bitcoin. There’s a transfer of value from one medium of exchange to another.

Of course, high activity after bad news, probably signals sells. So, low activity would actually be pretty strange.
12-19-2013 09:55 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #865
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 09:55 AM)Maciano Wrote:  Fiatleak is both SELL and BUY.

The ‘leak’ idea comes from the idea that part of fiat money’s purpose, i.e. currency, is leaking to bitcoin. There’s a transfer of value from one medium of exchange to another.

Of course, high activity after bad news, probably signals sells. So, low activity would actually be pretty strange.
So they're cashing out. If they cannot convert they have to be selling yet the price is going up all the time WTF?????
12-19-2013 09:59 AM
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pants Offline
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Post: #866
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Fiatleak:

You see one coin moving from USD up to USA. This is just a trade that has been done in USD/BTC. Might be on mtgox, and the nationality of the trader has nothing to do with it. So seeing the coin move towards USA is a bit misleading.

The name fiatleak is also misleading. You don´t really see value leaking in from fiat to crypto. The only way you can see that is when the price is rising, as crypto "takes" value from other currencies.


Am I the only one who is surprised about the price? Thought China was such a huge player that the price would fall 300ish. I actually called my bitcoin "broker" and told him I wanted out at 530, he could not make a deal until he saw the coins in wallet cause to many had screwed him over lately. Me being at work I had no chance doing the transfer, and by the time I got home it was at 630. Lucky!
12-19-2013 11:31 AM
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pants Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 09:59 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  So they're cashing out. If they cannot convert they have to be selling yet the price is going up all the time WTF?????

My understanding, Chinese are not allowed to deposit money into exchanges, but they are allowed to cash out. This dose not indicate that they will sell at any price and it will go to zero. There´s probably a lot of international arbitragers who compete on the arbitrage between china and the rest of the world who will pick it up long before zero.
12-19-2013 11:34 AM
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birdrussell Offline
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Post: #868
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Just picked this up off of wired about the FBI's stash of bit coin

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/201...d=15955134

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12-19-2013 12:09 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #869
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
China dumped 24 hours ago lets see if they repeat
12-19-2013 12:22 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 12:22 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  China dumped 24 hours ago lets see if they repeat

So, WE (that's the Royal WE), are projecting that there could be another BTC price "crash?"

Will that be a crash UP or a crash DOWN?

I have some of my assets on BTC - e in dollars (about $650), just itching for an opportunity to inject back into BTC. I would love for a crash DOWN that would allow me to inject those dollars in the lower 500s for BTC or I would be happier for the 400s - wishful if we were going to get down to $390 again.... though anything remains feasible, as we saw a couple days ago. If we get a crash UP, then I will be left holding those dollars.

I accumulated those dollars when I was playing the ups and downs pretty well on BTC - e, and I cashed most of those dollars out in the mid-$500s HOPING for another down, that never came (so far).

If I were to recoup that $650 now into BTC, b/c of an anticipated crash UP, then I would be out about $100, but if I hang onto those dollars and the crash UP occurs and does NOT come back down, then I would be out even more if I buy back into BTC at a higher price.

Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I am just going to hang onto the dollars and hope for a crash DOWN. What are the odds? 50/50?

BTW - At the moment, BTC is up 20% for the 24 hour period; however, DogeCoin is up 388%. Should have bought DogeCoin.. as the coin de jour. Smile


OR BetaCoin - is UP 101%. None of us would want to own BetaCoin, would we?
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 02:30 PM by JayJuanGee.)
12-19-2013 02:27 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #871
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe it wont.
12-19-2013 02:30 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #872
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 02:30 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe it wont.

According to the Macd theory that banned member Pyre was promoting... it looks like we are IN for a price DROP in BTC.

But WTF do I know?

According to the 5-day chart that I just copied and attached, all I see is that the MACD bar is meeting with pink, which seems to imply drop in prices is on the horizon. Any thoughts?



http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstamp...zi1gMACDzv


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12-19-2013 09:03 PM
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GameTheory Offline
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Post: #873
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
BTC has recovered to about $675
12-19-2013 09:22 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
China selling and Europe and US buying now? Btcchina is cheapest at least
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 10:24 PM by Satoshi.)
12-19-2013 10:24 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #875
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(12-19-2013 10:24 PM)friheten Wrote:  China selling and Europe and US buying now? Btcchina is cheapest at least

From where do you get that information about who is buying and who is selling? All I see is that the price is remaining pretty flat. And, the theory is that if there are more sellers than buyers, then the price will drop.
12-19-2013 10:34 PM
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