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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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yolo Offline
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Post: #1851
RE: The Bitcoin thread
How does that saying go?

Once Is Chance, Twice is Coincidence, Third Time Is A Pattern

I think Bitcoin has already had 4 bubbles, once when it hit $3, second time it hit $30-$40, third time it hit $200+, and fourth time it hit $1100. Why not a 5th time or 6th or 7th? Only thing stopping BTC is a nasty bug discovered in the protocol or a miner takeover, no amount of government action can stop it, the animal has been let loose.
09-04-2014 11:23 AM
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JayJuanGee
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Post: #1852
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-04-2014 11:23 AM)yolo Wrote:  How does that saying go?

Once Is Chance, Twice is Coincidence, Third Time Is A Pattern

I think Bitcoin has already had 4 bubbles, once when it hit $3, second time it hit $30-$40, third time it hit $200+, and fourth time it hit $1100. Why not a 5th time or 6th or 7th? Only thing stopping BTC is a nasty bug discovered in the protocol or a miner takeover, no amount of government action can stop it, the animal has been let loose.


There are a few competing ideas, here, which seems to be part of the reasons why there is debate about whether BTC prices are going to continue to rise, and if they do what is going to be the intensity or likelihood for repetition of the previous intensity.

I personally get the sense that we are going to have at least one more 8x to 12x upward explosion (measuring from a $450 price point), and I believe that adoption potential of BTC could fairly easily allow for 3 more of similar kinds of explosive growths, and 5 or more explosive growths is NOT out of the question to transition into the best case scenario.

3 more explosive growths of approximately would bring BTC prices in line with world-wide gold market cap of approximately 6.5 trillion.

There are various proposals concerning the direction of the growth curve, concerning whether the curve begins to level off or if the curve continues in an exponentially upward direction. The exponential upward direction works under Metclaf's law for approximately the first half of the adoption rate of a networking technology.. then the question remains where is half way and who all is going to adopt BTC. Surely if it becomes like the mobile phone or the refrigerator or the microwave or the internet, then our measurement could be world-wide adoption.... and then another question would remain for which purposes would people use BTC ? As storage of value, as transmittal of value, as public ledger, as a form of currency, as a speculation instrument, and/or in some other potential capacities.

The upside potential remains very great, even though, as Yolo mentioned, there are a few potential threats that could cause severe and potentially irreversible damage to BTC...

One other possibility, that seems less likely, in my current thinking would be that bitcoin's growth becomes much less volatile and less manipulated with slow (rather than explosive) uptrends. I remain of the belief that BTC will remain volatile over the coming uptrends but less so as BTC increases in market cap. There will likely be a lot lower levels of volatility if BTC were to approach a market cap in the several trillion dollar arena.
09-04-2014 03:22 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1853
RE: The Bitcoin thread
^ And Jayjuan still will hold.
09-04-2014 03:28 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1854
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-04-2014 03:28 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ And Jayjuan still will hold.


At this time, I don't recognize any reason NOT to hold..

Actually, I have been holding mostly since I started investing in BTC in November 2013; however, more accurately, I would describe my current BTC investment strategy as a form of buy and hold, and you?

In a fairly recent post, you mentioned that you were considering a plan to go into Alt cryptos, did you implement a variation of such a plan? or did you follow through?nnDid you find some guys to pool some money and to employ various alt coin pumps and dumps? If so, how is it working?

My various investment plans which include BTC as part of the overall portfolio are NOT only long term, but the BTC portion of my investment remains under ongoing monitoring by me.

Accordingly, if BTC fundamentals become negative, I will reconsider my short, medium and/or long term strategical involvement of BTC. At this point, the overwhelming fundamentals of BTC seem to be evolving much better than I had expected - therefore, I consider the current price to be a considerable value, and at the moment, even buying under $800 per BTC seems to be a fairly decent price to pay.

Yes, it seems that we will find out what you (El Mech) are going to do when BTC prices go above $680... and then maybe you can exit BTC at that time, especially, since currently you seem to be so bearish on BTC and BTC investments seem to make you nervous. Although, you seem to have been like that bearish for most, if NOT all, of 2014, yet I expect that you are NOT going to completely disappear from the BTC scene or this thread... because BTC seems to have stoked some kind of kindle within you. We will see?
09-04-2014 04:59 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1855
RE: The Bitcoin thread
No man I said you will hold no matter how high it goes. I got some physical coins sent to me by the mods at btc-e they make me want to but will sell off fast.
09-04-2014 06:40 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1856
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-04-2014 06:40 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  No man I said you will hold no matter how high it goes. I got some physical coins sent to me by the mods at btc-e they make me want to but will sell off fast.


At this point, I have a few prices in mind in which I will sell off some BTC, in order to begin to trade... so for example, I may sell 1% of my holdings if BTC prices rise 20% above my average buy price and I may sell an additional 3% if BTC prices rise 50% above my average BTC buy price. So far none of these sell (or trade) prices have triggered for me, because mostly my BTC portfolio has remained in the red for a large majority of the time that I have been investing. My plan forward with dollar cost averaging had allowed for these decreasing prices.

Anyhow, I may make certain adjustments to my selling plans depending upon my continued buying behavior (and averages) and the time horizon in which future BTC price changes take place.

In other words, I am NOT totally disinclined from selling parts or even all of my BTC portfolio - and my personality, so far, does NOT seem to fit very well with nearly all of the alt-coins (I am too suspicious); however, if I feel that there is some good potential in one or more of the alt currencies, I may consider moving some of my money in that direction.


By the way, I remain a little unclear about what sort of gifts BTC-e mods are bestowing upon you, and how those gifts would affect your BTC or alt-coin holding considerations.
09-04-2014 06:54 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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Post: #1857
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Bitcoin thread on page 2 in the lifestyle forum

Bitcoin is dead

BananaHeart

deposit fiat today and will deposit more tomorrow. Also getting them at a $10 discount Big Grin
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2014 01:05 PM by Satoshi.)
09-10-2014 12:58 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1858
RE: The Bitcoin thread
When I came across the below article, I said to myself, "Whoa, Zaa!!!" And, therefore, I wanted to share my "Whoa, Zaa!!!" with you.

In essence, I find it interesting to hear Julian Assange describing his interactions with Satoshi Nakomoto in the earliest days of bitcoin and the realization by both of them, that they have to share a goal to keep bitcoin somewhat under wraps - especially while bitcoin was still in its budding stages of development.


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wikileaks-avoi...14267.html
09-16-2014 04:46 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1859
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Jay I hope your auto buy orders are in place.. Tonight will go low
09-18-2014 07:43 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1860
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-18-2014 07:43 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay I hope your auto buy orders are in place.. Tonight will go low


Really??? You may be correct, but I remain doubtful (but I would NOT be surprised if BTC prices got into the $380 territory... I do NOT consider any of that to be guaranteed so I am NOT selling any BTC (if that's what you are getting at Smile) - yet I was a bit surprised to wake up this morning to low $420s that trans-morphed into a $407.94 downward price spike.

Generally, because I buy through Coinbase, I do NOT have the ability to set auto buys, and I have NOT sold coins for a long time on BTC-e therefore I have NO fiat on BTC-e.

I will probably set my BTC alarm tonight for around $398 and if BTC prices goes into the $380s, I will buy a little more.... 1 or 2?

Again... I am running out of FIAT... FUCK!!!!!

One of the new chants on Bitcoin talk has been:

CUT YOUR LOOSE!!!!!!!!!

I love that chant because it is ambiguous and can used by either bears or bulls to say what they want to say...


So... given the current BTC price volatility dynamics...

Every Fuckin ONE OF YOU reading this:

CUT YOUR LOOSE!!!!!!!!! Banana Laugh
09-18-2014 08:24 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1861
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-18-2014 07:43 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay I hope your auto buy orders are in place.. Tonight will go low


By the way, sorry I should have asked earlier, what are your plans for the coming evening or even the coming days / weeks regarding your BTC holdings and/or related activities?
09-18-2014 08:29 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1862
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-18-2014 08:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-18-2014 07:43 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay I hope your auto buy orders are in place.. Tonight will go low


By the way, sorry I should have asked earlier, what are your plans for the coming evening or even the coming days / weeks regarding your BTC holdings and/or related activities?
I'm selling every time in want to buy something regardless of the price in a unique way that makes me look like a loser.
09-18-2014 08:59 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1863
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-18-2014 08:59 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  
(09-18-2014 08:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-18-2014 07:43 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay I hope your auto buy orders are in place.. Tonight will go low


By the way, sorry I should have asked earlier, what are your plans for the coming evening or even the coming days / weeks regarding your BTC holdings and/or related activities?
I'm selling every time in want to buy something regardless of the price in a unique way that makes me look like a loser.

Well, each of us makes our own decisions regarding our finances and how we value assets and how we calculate probabilities of future value.

It is possible that you will have done the right thing by selling as needed - because it is possible that the price will NOT return to mid $600s and above... and you had also indicated that you are working with profits, too... I mean you have already gotten your initial investment out of it.. quite a while back.

I have continued to invest and double down because I continue to have considerable confidence that bitcoin is a good long term investment - and surely, I could be wrong about that.

Personally, I believe that probabilities are pretty decent that there will be at least one more bubble.. but it could take anywhere between 1 week and 1 year to get to a new ATH (that is above $1,163)...

I remain pretty excited about this whole thing, even though the price has been fairly lack-luster, and really in the beginning of June I had expected that we were going up, and up and up... especially since the weekly MACD had turned green... .. which did NOT last too long before BTC prices entered another downward spiral in spite of a large number of fairly decent positive news developments.
09-18-2014 09:15 PM
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jamaicabound Offline
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Post: #1864
RE: The Bitcoin thread
A year ago Bitcion was all we heard about in blogs, news social media, finance writings, etc. I've been involved with bitcoins for a few years and really havn't even thought about them or checked prices in a number of months. I think last I checked BTC was over or around $600, checked my account yesterday and was at about $480 apparently dropped down to almost $400. It's interested BTC kinda fell off the interest and radar of the mainstream media and pop culture which I kinda think is a bad things. I'll probably load up on a lot if it drops under 400.
09-19-2014 07:40 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1865
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-19-2014 07:40 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  A year ago Bitcion was all we heard about in blogs, news social media, finance writings, etc. I've been involved with bitcoins for a few years and really havn't even thought about them or checked prices in a number of months. I think last I checked BTC was over or around $600, checked my account yesterday and was at about $480 apparently dropped down to almost $400. It's interested BTC kinda fell off the interest and radar of the mainstream media and pop culture which I kinda think is a bad things. I'll probably load up on a lot if it drops under 400.

I went to bed, and I set my alarm for $398 (to buy more through Coinbase). My alarm went off about 2 hours ago, and I had been chomping at the bits to buy and waiting for the dip.. quite the teaser.. and finally, I bought at $380....

Again, it seems that I get these cash flow problems when BTC dips into the $300s... fuck my life... so I was NOT able to stock up a lot. I set another alarm at $360, so I will buy next in the $350 range.. if prices go that low.


By the way, from where are you buying your BTC JamaicaBound? Maybe your prices are a little different than mine, but my prices from Coinbase run pretty consistently off of the Bitstamp price.

I have been waiting for a Circle invite since May... and I have NOT received one, yet.
09-19-2014 07:47 AM
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jamaicabound Offline
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Post: #1866
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-19-2014 07:47 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-19-2014 07:40 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  A year ago Bitcion was all we heard about in blogs, news social media, finance writings, etc. I've been involved with bitcoins for a few years and really havn't even thought about them or checked prices in a number of months. I think last I checked BTC was over or around $600, checked my account yesterday and was at about $480 apparently dropped down to almost $400. It's interested BTC kinda fell off the interest and radar of the mainstream media and pop culture which I kinda think is a bad things. I'll probably load up on a lot if it drops under 400.

I went to bed, and I set my alarm for $398 (to buy more through Coinbase). My alarm went off about 2 hours ago, and I had been chomping at the bits to buy and waiting for the dip.. quite the teaser.. and finally, I bought at $380....

Again, it seems that I get these cash flow problems when BTC dips into the $300s... fuck my life... so I was NOT able to stock up a lot. I set another alarm at $360, so I will buy next in the $350 range.. if prices go that low.


By the way, from where are you buying your BTC JamaicaBound? Maybe your prices are a little different than mine, but my prices from Coinbase run pretty consistently off of the Bitstamp price.

I have been waiting for a Circle invite since May... and I have NOT received one, yet.

Oh wow, I hadn't realized prices had dropped that low, I'm gonna pick some up if it's still below $300. I hate buying stuff when prices are low as I feel I have less buying power though hoarding most of my BTC.

When I first started buying I did my buying on bitlocal or through craigslist but lately I use Coinbase as well, just so much easier and less hassle. I never realized they had alarms so thanks for mentioning that, I'll have to start using those.

Just curious, what are your feelings about bitcoin and the future or even current price? A year ago I was super excited and rah rah bitcoins, obviously we saw prices explode, bitcoins were the hot topic in the media, etc. Then it seemed like Bitcoin prices leveled out around $600 and kinda found a base. Granted there will be dips but it kind of concerns me this could be a new floor in the $300 range where as I thought we would sit around $600 for a while and slowly grow.

Also just curious what your thoughts are about Bitcoins falling out of peoples minds, news stories, the media. Last year round Thanksgiving and Christmas time Bitcoin were the hottest new thing, mentioned in finance magazines, newspaper, tv, etc. Now you never hear about Bitcoins at all unless your actively engaged in using them. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing. I think its bad in that for Bitcoin to grow in popularity and value we need the masses, however I think its a good thing in the sense back last year alot of the attention was negative attention about the bitcoin sites stealing money or getting hacked. YOu saw all these news stories spreading misinformation about bitcoin as well as making it apppear to people who don't know about bitcoins that bitcoin is flawed when in reality it was the shitty exchanges that were flawed. Thats like saying scottrade stole a bunch of money from people so that means the stock market is a scam, no scottrad is simply a broker, as long as you use a legit broker its not a scam. Maybe bad analogy but basically the media was painting bitcoin as being flawed when in reality it was bad exchanges. Just curious your thoughts about the current value as well as future value and how you view btc not getting attention these days.
09-19-2014 06:22 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1867
RE: The Bitcoin thread
couldn't afford more but picked up half a coin on Circle.

if their product gets out of invite-only mode before the next bubble it will bring about a MASSIVE bubble.
09-19-2014 08:30 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1868
RE: The Bitcoin thread
@ jamaicabound.

I am working on a response to your post... hehehehe...


(09-19-2014 08:30 PM)brg444 Wrote:  couldn't afford more but picked up half a coin on Circle.

if their product gets out of invite-only mode before the next bubble it will bring about a MASSIVE bubble.

Whoa-za!!!! You got a Circle invite... damn it... I put in my invitation request for a Circle invite in the end of May 2014, and I am still waiting.. Fuck me...?

Did you put in your request for a Circle invite earlier than late May? or I wonder if Circle has been using some other criteria in determining the order of the invitations? I sent one e-mail message to them a little over a month ago requesting a status update regarding my supposedly pending invite, and they responded something like, "don't call us, we'll call you!!!"

I don't really know exactly too much about Circle except that they are a western established BTC purchasing vehicle(similar to Coinbase) that has NO fees, so in that regard, I agree with you that one of the things needed in BTC is an easy and credible mechanism to bring large amounts of fiat into the Bitcoin space on short notice.. which will likely put some dampers in the ongoing downward BTC price manipulation that seems to be caused by lots of ease to move BTC into exchanges, but considerable difficulties (and seemingly impracticalities) in getting large amounts of fiats into such exchanges.
(This post was last modified: 09-19-2014 08:54 PM by JayJuanGee.)
09-19-2014 08:48 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1869
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-19-2014 08:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  @ jamaicabound.

I am working on a response to your post... hehehehe...


(09-19-2014 08:30 PM)brg444 Wrote:  couldn't afford more but picked up half a coin on Circle.

if their product gets out of invite-only mode before the next bubble it will bring about a MASSIVE bubble.

Whoa-za!!!! You got a Circle invite... damn it... I put in my invitation request for a Circle invite in the end of May 2014, and I am still waiting.. Fuck me...?

Did you put in your request for a Circle invite earlier than late May? or I wonder if Circle has been using some other criteria in determining the order of the invitations? I sent one e-mail message to them a little over a month ago requesting a status update regarding my supposedly pending invite, and they responded something like, "don't call us, we'll call you!!!"

I don't really know exactly too much about Circle except that they are a western established BTC purchasing vehicle(similar to Coinbase) that has NO fees, so in that regard, I agree with you that one of the things needed in BTC is an easy and credible mechanism to bring large amounts of fiat into the Bitcoin space on short notice.. which will likely put some dampers in the ongoing downward BTC price manipulation that seems to be caused by lots of ease to move BTC into exchanges, but considerable difficulties (and seemingly impracticalities) in getting large amounts of fiats into such exchanges.

Invite was requested on May 18th.

I'm not certain what their criterias are as far as releasing invites but it appears the date of request does not matter much.

The zero fees feature is interesting but I am more impressed by the ease of use and seamless approach to funding your account.

Within minutes of receiving my invite I had my credit card set up and could deposit up to $500 INSTANTLY.

Most recent reports indicate that they should release the service to the public "very soon". I know they've been saying that for awhile but I am confident they are closing in on the final phases of testing and will definitely open to everyone a month or two from now.
09-19-2014 09:10 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1870
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-19-2014 09:10 PM)brg444 Wrote:  
(09-19-2014 08:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  @ jamaicabound.

I am working on a response to your post... hehehehe...


(09-19-2014 08:30 PM)brg444 Wrote:  couldn't afford more but picked up half a coin on Circle.

if their product gets out of invite-only mode before the next bubble it will bring about a MASSIVE bubble.

Whoa-za!!!! You got a Circle invite... damn it... I put in my invitation request for a Circle invite in the end of May 2014, and I am still waiting.. Fuck me...?

Did you put in your request for a Circle invite earlier than late May? or I wonder if Circle has been using some other criteria in determining the order of the invitations? I sent one e-mail message to them a little over a month ago requesting a status update regarding my supposedly pending invite, and they responded something like, "don't call us, we'll call you!!!"

I don't really know exactly too much about Circle except that they are a western established BTC purchasing vehicle(similar to Coinbase) that has NO fees, so in that regard, I agree with you that one of the things needed in BTC is an easy and credible mechanism to bring large amounts of fiat into the Bitcoin space on short notice.. which will likely put some dampers in the ongoing downward BTC price manipulation that seems to be caused by lots of ease to move BTC into exchanges, but considerable difficulties (and seemingly impracticalities) in getting large amounts of fiats into such exchanges.

Invite was requested on May 18th.

I'm not certain what their criterias are as far as releasing invites but it appears the date of request does not matter much.

The zero fees feature is interesting but I am more impressed by the ease of use and seamless approach to funding your account.

Within minutes of receiving my invite I had my credit card set up and could deposit up to $500 INSTANTLY.

Most recent reports indicate that they should release the service to the public "very soon". I know they've been saying that for awhile but I am confident they are closing in on the final phases of testing and will definitely open to everyone a month or two from now.

I sent my invite request on May 27.... Maybe I will have to wait for the "public" release, and that is o.k. with me too, as long as it is coming soon.
09-19-2014 09:27 PM
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Post: #1871
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Hey Jamaicabound:

Below, I attempt to respond to your various points:


(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Oh wow, I hadn't realized prices had dropped that low, I'm gonna pick some up if it's still below $300. I hate buying stuff when prices are low as I feel I have less buying power though hoarding most of my BTC.

I gather that you mean that you will buy more BTC so long as BTC prices are in the $300s, rather than your statement of “below $300,” which would be quite a stretch, if prices were to get that low any time in the near future.

I can relate to your mixed feelings about the lowering of BTC prices. Even though lower BTC prices indicate a great buying opportunity in the moment, the lower BTC prices also tend to cause a bit of trepidation regarding the lowering value of a guy’s whole BTC holdings.

My most recent buy was at $380 - .. Yet buying anywhere in the current range is probably NOT a bad thing… and seems to be a pretty decent price (all relatively speaking, of course).



(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  When I first started buying I did my buying on bitlocal or through craigslist but lately I use Coinbase as well, just so much easier and less hassle. I never realized they had alarms so thanks for mentioning that, I'll have to start using those.

Yeah, you may be able to find cheaper BTC prices through some of these other avenues and you also may be able to avoid some of the KNC (know your customer) requirements of entities, such as Coinbase, but surely it does seem to be a hassle to attempt to track down these ad hoc purchases or selling of BTC through other services when, instead through Coinbase, you can monitor BTC price fluctuations and attempt to buy exactly on the dips (to the extent that you perceive such dips to make any kind of difference to the value of your total BTC holdings).

Regarding alarms:
I think that guys do a variety of things, if they know about them. I am NOT referring to any Coinbase alarms because to my knowledge Coinbase does NOT have any such alarms.

I have a couple of alarms that I use on my Iphone (probably android phones have some variation of this and maybe even more options). On the IPhone, Bitcoin Ticker has some pretty decent alarm settings and also ZeroBlock.

When I am sleeping, however, I cannot really rely too well on the Iphone app alarms, because if I turn the fricken phone on silent, then I do NOT really have a way for those alarms to alert me in a way that will wake me up. So, instead, I use the alarms on my computer on this website. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

These alarms have tended to work pretty well, and I can set them pretty loud. I think once or twice they have failed to go off, so probably it would be prudent to verify or even to reload the pages and then to verify the settings, during occasions that a guy may be really concerned about NOT missing a certain price dip or a certain price rise.

Probably, all of the alarms that I use do NOT cure all of my concerns, but they are the best that I found so far.







(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Just curious, what are your feelings about bitcoin and the future or even current price? A year ago I was super excited and rah rah bitcoins, obviously we saw prices explode, bitcoins were the hot topic in the media, etc. Then it seemed like Bitcoin prices leveled out around $600 and kinda found a base. Granted there will be dips but it kind of concerns me this could be a new floor in the $300 range where as I thought we would sit around $600 for a while and slowly grow.

I have gone through various evolutions too regarding my predictions and my assessment of BTC price direction(s)… Of course a lot of these kinds of predictions are based on my assessments of probabilities, and what I view to be going on and various incentives that may exist for other BTC traders to move BTC prices in one direction or another.

Between about December 2013 and April 2014, I kept considering that BTC prices were going to settle in the mid-$800s area.. and that BTC prices would float in that range for quite some time before shooting up – at least past $2,000. In retrospect, that viewpoint seems a little bit too optimistic (especially given what has happened in the interim), but surely, we only know what we know, and even our knowledge probably remains quite incomplete – unless we happen to hold a sufficient quantity of BTC and/or fiat in order to know that we can push BTC prices in one direction or another in order to get a better feelings for elasticity of BTC prices yet even some of the big whales likely have difficulties knowing over a longer period of time whether they want to take chances to push BTC prices in one direction or another.. because they may have some uncertainties about what other whales are going to do.

I really remain a little bit unclear about what the fuck.. in terms of the price staying within a certain range for extended periods… Like I said, I did NOT really believe that BTC prices were stable under the mid-$800s, but really BTC prices have largely been almost completely below the $700s since the beginning of February 2014.

In May and June 2014, my thoughts were that of an imminent BTC price bubble percolating, and in early June when the weekly MACD turned green – around upper $500s and BTC prices progressed into the upper $600s, I pretty much thought BTC prices were on their way up and likely never to dip below $550, ever again…. And I was thinking that it was a real possibility to reach lower $800s by the end of 2014.. and maybe new ATH of $3k to $5k by no later thn mid 2015. How wrong did I turn out to be? I was quite wrong about prices moving and staying above $550, and I am NOT sure whether I need to revise my anticipations regarding what may happen in the end of this year and into 2015… Really, I still remain a bit mystified about describing anything too specific and considering that anything that I am predicting or anticipating remains probabilities based on my current information (incomplete as that seem to remain).

Well, anyhow, based on my then viewpoint, between June and July 2014, I pretty much doubled my BTC portfolio holdings (bringing my BTC portfolio well above 100 BTC) .. which really seems to have caused greater stickiness in my average price per BTC (which causes much more difficulties for me to move my average price per BTC by buying more and to attempt to bring down my average price per BTC).

So anyhow, I made a lot of BTC purchases between $550-ish and $650-ish with my expectation that BTC prices were on their way up from that point… And really in retrospect this action seems silly because surely, if I had known better and been able to wait a little longer at least with some of the fiat that I had available, I could have probably purchased 20-ish more BTC with the same quantity of fiat at this week’s lower BTC prices.

I am still NOT too worried about my total BTC holdings or my total BTC package, and I believe that I have NOT overinvested in BTC since my total holdings of BTC remains below 10% of my quasi-liquid investments. And, even though my average price per BTC is currently at about $601 (including transaction fees), which is about 28.5% down if I would have sold at today’s highest price point of about $430, I remain optimistic about all of it

But, ultimately, FUCK!!!!... I did NOT really anticipate that BTC prices would go in this direction for well over two months (even though I am NOT totally shocked by the downward price trend happening and I have certain additional measures that I am prepared to take based on how all of these prices and market plays out in the coming months and potentially into early 2015).

Currently, I do tend to doubt that BTC prices can remain this low, in the lower $400s or even in the $300s for very long.. but please take my thoughts with a grain of salt because I had the same doubts about BTC prices staying in the $500s or even $600s for very long.. I thought that BTC prices were just too low and that it was going to have to go up into the $700s and then $800s and beyond sooner or later in order for some of the bigger investors to be able to really get some utility out of Bitcoin… and even to recoup some of their investment(s).

But having said all of that, it may be the case that the totality of the BTC infrastructure is NOT quite ready just yet for some forms of mass adoptions, which likely will come after the next BTC price wave. Really, if you think about it, at today’s BTC prices, BTC has a market cap of about $5.5billion, and that level of market cap is quite low in order to accomplish various large scale transactions and even very small to support the amount of infrastructure that has been built around BTC.

Additionally, the current BTC market cap is super small when you consider the humungous amount of computing power that has been assembled and developed to secure its network… gotta think whoaza with the kinds of computing numbers on the peer 2 peer network… again, WHOAZA…. .

Even these days, there seems to be sufficient BTC infrastructure in place to support at least $100 billion dollar market cap, and even a large market cap than that would NOT be unreasonable with the current BTC infrastructure – however, given some more building of the BTC infrastructure in 1 or 2 more years, there will likely be an easy capacity to handle between a $1 to $10 trillion dollar market cap. Some people may believe these numbers to be pie in the sky, and certainly I am NOT banking on them taking place, but these numbers are NOT really unreasonable – even though they are BIG.

Surely in the end, none of us can really be clear about whether BTC prices will follow such an optimistic and upward trajectory, or even if those kinds of numbers remain too pie in the sky to achieve at the current levels of adoption and even the total abilities of manipulation and politics and even incentive for large status quo institutions to spend to sabotage BTC… These outcomes remain ambiguous given some of the ways that people talk about BTC… seemingly filled with a lot of ignorance and misinformation.

Just to flesh out the impact of the Market cap numbers a little bit….. .. let’s just assume approximately 15 million BTC in circulation.

Accordingly, BTC prices would look like the below, at various market cap levels:

Market Cap BTC Price

$7.5 Billion = $500

$15 Billion = $1,000

$75 Billion = $5,000

$150 Billion = $10,000

$1.5 Trillion = $100,000

$7.5 Trillion = $500,000


I understand that these numbers seem totally outrageous, but really, if you think about how much investment is going into BTC, there remains considerable potential in the short term and in the medium term and in the long term for BTC to have upside potential and that is why some people have predicted $1million per BTC as being possible and within the potential cards.

With this kind of upside price potential, it is a little strange that a few more people would NOT at least invest a little bit of their fiat into such potential. and it is becoming easier and easier to invest into BTC.. and even easier to invest into BTC than it is to invest into the fricken stock market with some of these intermediaries contained within such stock market investment avenues.

As Brg444 and I already batted around in the posts from yesterday, there seem to be potential opening ups (such as Circle) for even greater ease for the masses to get into BTC… and these kinds of BTC investment avenues, such as Circle, could create considerable upsurge in BTC adoption and even avenues for really large quantities of money to get into BTC on a whim.

Currently existing exchanges seem to have a lof of downward manipulations of BTC prices that are seeming to take place through fairly low volume on the exchanges (and maybe even fake volume) on some of these exchanges that cause for considerable disincentives for people to ship large quantities of fiat to the current exchanges .. but it remains really easy for anybody to ship exchanges large quantities of BTC in order to continue to engage in BTC dumping behaviors. If some of these other BTC investment avenues open up to allow for easily and whimsically getting big money into BTC purchases, then that is going to really challenge the ability to downwardly attempt to manipulate BTC prices.




(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Also just curious what your thoughts are about Bitcoins falling out of peoples minds, news stories, the media. Last year round Thanksgiving and Christmas time Bitcoin were the hottest new thing, mentioned in finance magazines, newspaper, tv, etc. Now you never hear about Bitcoins at all unless your actively engaged in using them. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing. I think its bad in that for Bitcoin to grow in popularity and value we need the masses, however I think its a good thing in the sense back last year alot of the attention was negative attention about the bitcoin sites stealing money or getting hacked. YOu saw all these news stories spreading misinformation about bitcoin as well as making it apppear to people who don't know about bitcoins that bitcoin is flawed when in reality it was the shitty exchanges that were flawed. Thats like saying scottrade stole a bunch of money from people so that means the stock market is a scam, no scottrad is simply a broker, as long as you use a legit broker its not a scam. Maybe bad analogy but basically the media was painting bitcoin as being flawed when in reality it was bad exchanges. Just curious your thoughts about the current value as well as future value and how you view btc not getting attention these days.

I understand what you are saying about negative BTC publicity in the press and there seems to be some need for mass adoption of BTC and there is likely some negative affects on the BTC adoption and price when various negative BTC stories are out there…. And even when there may seem to be a lack of BTC stories.

I am NOT really sure about if you are giving more weight to these mass media stories than they merit. Surely, you are right that the quantity of mass media stories seem to fluctuate, but I am NOT sure whether the quantity is that much lower these days as compared with November and December 2013 because even in current times, from time to time, there remain some pretty juicy and good and positive BTC stories that are hitting the mainstream press.

Personally, I am thinking that more weight needs to be given to the impact of BTC investment vehicles that are going to allow the masses to easily get into BTC that will hamper various aspects of the downward price manipulations (like potentially the Circle thing mentioned above), and when BTC prices begin to rise again, then the herds of people will likely follow along with the press and the hype and VIOLA.. another BTC bubble.

Maybe I am giving too much short-shrift to this media angle that you brought up, but I do tend to think that media attention follows BTC price movement and there do seem to be some mechanisms that will be coming into place in the BTC space (such as Circle and potentially more ETFs including COIN) that is going to make it more difficult for BTC prices to be manipulated downward on the exchanges (though downward BTC price manipulation is going to continue to occur and there will continue to be incentives to downwardly manipulate BTC prices on an ongoing basis).

Hopefully, my long-ass response here addressed most of what you were asking…. And surely some other guys in this thread may have perspectives that vary from mine (well, I am quite confident that there are several RVF guys that have different perspectives than me, seems part of the RVF fabric… Laugh )
09-20-2014 07:31 PM
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Post: #1872
RE: The Bitcoin thread
So I've got long position witch is opened at a average price of $507. And will get liquidated at $310, if I don't add more funds, which I probably should. Do you think I should close it now already and cut the looses, or wait a week or so and see what will happen? I think we could be in this price range for a while, however much not really likely I think?

I'm happy with my MAID position it's nice and steady going up, however it's really small volume. But looking at the walls now it's really bullish:
https://masterxchange.com/market.php?currency=maid

However big walls has been pulled before in the MAID market, both on the buy side and on the sell side. My buy in price is 3500 satoshis, and I've been daytrading a bit there.. Doing fairly good actually, it's such small market that it's really easy once one's been following the market for a while.
Right now I'm about 50/50 MAID/BTC looking at the coins I bought from the beginning, with the BTC as buy orders and the MAID just being HODL until price moves.

EXEcoin, which I'm still holding, is worth almost nothing. Probably the studied decision I've done in the crypto world.

Mastercoin is still making progress in their software but the price is low, and the few coins I'm still holding is worth much less then what I bought them for.

By the way I did also get an invite to Circle, a few weeks ago, but since I'm not American this hole trading thing isn't working and I can only use it as an wallet. Seems to be no major differences compared to blockchain so I see no reason to change it. Actually I can't even find a way to import my privet keys so would have to send all my BTC, and also all MAID and MSC to a new circle wallet. Which I'm not really keen about. However I did get 0.02BTC just for signing up so I'm grateful for that.


Congrats JJG to 100BTC. Would love to hold that amount. A price of $10000 would make you financial independent, if counting on $1M as financially independent.
09-21-2014 09:09 PM
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jamaicabound Offline
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Post: #1873
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-20-2014 07:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Hey Jamaicabound:

Below, I attempt to respond to your various points:


(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Oh wow, I hadn't realized prices had dropped that low, I'm gonna pick some up if it's still below $300. I hate buying stuff when prices are low as I feel I have less buying power though hoarding most of my BTC.

I gather that you mean that you will buy more BTC so long as BTC prices are in the $300s, rather than your statement of “below $300,” which would be quite a stretch, if prices were to get that low any time in the near future.

I can relate to your mixed feelings about the lowering of BTC prices. Even though lower BTC prices indicate a great buying opportunity in the moment, the lower BTC prices also tend to cause a bit of trepidation regarding the lowering value of a guy’s whole BTC holdings.

My most recent buy was at $380 - .. Yet buying anywhere in the current range is probably NOT a bad thing… and seems to be a pretty decent price (all relatively speaking, of course).



(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  When I first started buying I did my buying on bitlocal or through craigslist but lately I use Coinbase as well, just so much easier and less hassle. I never realized they had alarms so thanks for mentioning that, I'll have to start using those.

Yeah, you may be able to find cheaper BTC prices through some of these other avenues and you also may be able to avoid some of the KNC (know your customer) requirements of entities, such as Coinbase, but surely it does seem to be a hassle to attempt to track down these ad hoc purchases or selling of BTC through other services when, instead through Coinbase, you can monitor BTC price fluctuations and attempt to buy exactly on the dips (to the extent that you perceive such dips to make any kind of difference to the value of your total BTC holdings).

Regarding alarms:
I think that guys do a variety of things, if they know about them. I am NOT referring to any Coinbase alarms because to my knowledge Coinbase does NOT have any such alarms.

I have a couple of alarms that I use on my Iphone (probably android phones have some variation of this and maybe even more options). On the IPhone, Bitcoin Ticker has some pretty decent alarm settings and also ZeroBlock.

When I am sleeping, however, I cannot really rely too well on the Iphone app alarms, because if I turn the fricken phone on silent, then I do NOT really have a way for those alarms to alert me in a way that will wake me up. So, instead, I use the alarms on my computer on this website. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

These alarms have tended to work pretty well, and I can set them pretty loud. I think once or twice they have failed to go off, so probably it would be prudent to verify or even to reload the pages and then to verify the settings, during occasions that a guy may be really concerned about NOT missing a certain price dip or a certain price rise.

Probably, all of the alarms that I use do NOT cure all of my concerns, but they are the best that I found so far.







(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Just curious, what are your feelings about bitcoin and the future or even current price? A year ago I was super excited and rah rah bitcoins, obviously we saw prices explode, bitcoins were the hot topic in the media, etc. Then it seemed like Bitcoin prices leveled out around $600 and kinda found a base. Granted there will be dips but it kind of concerns me this could be a new floor in the $300 range where as I thought we would sit around $600 for a while and slowly grow.

I have gone through various evolutions too regarding my predictions and my assessment of BTC price direction(s)… Of course a lot of these kinds of predictions are based on my assessments of probabilities, and what I view to be going on and various incentives that may exist for other BTC traders to move BTC prices in one direction or another.

Between about December 2013 and April 2014, I kept considering that BTC prices were going to settle in the mid-$800s area.. and that BTC prices would float in that range for quite some time before shooting up – at least past $2,000. In retrospect, that viewpoint seems a little bit too optimistic (especially given what has happened in the interim), but surely, we only know what we know, and even our knowledge probably remains quite incomplete – unless we happen to hold a sufficient quantity of BTC and/or fiat in order to know that we can push BTC prices in one direction or another in order to get a better feelings for elasticity of BTC prices yet even some of the big whales likely have difficulties knowing over a longer period of time whether they want to take chances to push BTC prices in one direction or another.. because they may have some uncertainties about what other whales are going to do.

I really remain a little bit unclear about what the fuck.. in terms of the price staying within a certain range for extended periods… Like I said, I did NOT really believe that BTC prices were stable under the mid-$800s, but really BTC prices have largely been almost completely below the $700s since the beginning of February 2014.

In May and June 2014, my thoughts were that of an imminent BTC price bubble percolating, and in early June when the weekly MACD turned green – around upper $500s and BTC prices progressed into the upper $600s, I pretty much thought BTC prices were on their way up and likely never to dip below $550, ever again…. And I was thinking that it was a real possibility to reach lower $800s by the end of 2014.. and maybe new ATH of $3k to $5k by no later thn mid 2015. How wrong did I turn out to be? I was quite wrong about prices moving and staying above $550, and I am NOT sure whether I need to revise my anticipations regarding what may happen in the end of this year and into 2015… Really, I still remain a bit mystified about describing anything too specific and considering that anything that I am predicting or anticipating remains probabilities based on my current information (incomplete as that seem to remain).

Well, anyhow, based on my then viewpoint, between June and July 2014, I pretty much doubled my BTC portfolio holdings (bringing my BTC portfolio well above 100 BTC) .. which really seems to have caused greater stickiness in my average price per BTC (which causes much more difficulties for me to move my average price per BTC by buying more and to attempt to bring down my average price per BTC).

So anyhow, I made a lot of BTC purchases between $550-ish and $650-ish with my expectation that BTC prices were on their way up from that point… And really in retrospect this action seems silly because surely, if I had known better and been able to wait a little longer at least with some of the fiat that I had available, I could have probably purchased 20-ish more BTC with the same quantity of fiat at this week’s lower BTC prices.

I am still NOT too worried about my total BTC holdings or my total BTC package, and I believe that I have NOT overinvested in BTC since my total holdings of BTC remains below 10% of my quasi-liquid investments. And, even though my average price per BTC is currently at about $601 (including transaction fees), which is about 28.5% down if I would have sold at today’s highest price point of about $430, I remain optimistic about all of it

But, ultimately, FUCK!!!!... I did NOT really anticipate that BTC prices would go in this direction for well over two months (even though I am NOT totally shocked by the downward price trend happening and I have certain additional measures that I am prepared to take based on how all of these prices and market plays out in the coming months and potentially into early 2015).

Currently, I do tend to doubt that BTC prices can remain this low, in the lower $400s or even in the $300s for very long.. but please take my thoughts with a grain of salt because I had the same doubts about BTC prices staying in the $500s or even $600s for very long.. I thought that BTC prices were just too low and that it was going to have to go up into the $700s and then $800s and beyond sooner or later in order for some of the bigger investors to be able to really get some utility out of Bitcoin… and even to recoup some of their investment(s).

But having said all of that, it may be the case that the totality of the BTC infrastructure is NOT quite ready just yet for some forms of mass adoptions, which likely will come after the next BTC price wave. Really, if you think about it, at today’s BTC prices, BTC has a market cap of about $5.5billion, and that level of market cap is quite low in order to accomplish various large scale transactions and even very small to support the amount of infrastructure that has been built around BTC.

Additionally, the current BTC market cap is super small when you consider the humungous amount of computing power that has been assembled and developed to secure its network… gotta think whoaza with the kinds of computing numbers on the peer 2 peer network… again, WHOAZA…. .

Even these days, there seems to be sufficient BTC infrastructure in place to support at least $100 billion dollar market cap, and even a large market cap than that would NOT be unreasonable with the current BTC infrastructure – however, given some more building of the BTC infrastructure in 1 or 2 more years, there will likely be an easy capacity to handle between a $1 to $10 trillion dollar market cap. Some people may believe these numbers to be pie in the sky, and certainly I am NOT banking on them taking place, but these numbers are NOT really unreasonable – even though they are BIG.

Surely in the end, none of us can really be clear about whether BTC prices will follow such an optimistic and upward trajectory, or even if those kinds of numbers remain too pie in the sky to achieve at the current levels of adoption and even the total abilities of manipulation and politics and even incentive for large status quo institutions to spend to sabotage BTC… These outcomes remain ambiguous given some of the ways that people talk about BTC… seemingly filled with a lot of ignorance and misinformation.

Just to flesh out the impact of the Market cap numbers a little bit….. .. let’s just assume approximately 15 million BTC in circulation.

Accordingly, BTC prices would look like the below, at various market cap levels:

Market Cap BTC Price

$7.5 Billion = $500

$15 Billion = $1,000

$75 Billion = $5,000

$150 Billion = $10,000

$1.5 Trillion = $100,000

$7.5 Trillion = $500,000


I understand that these numbers seem totally outrageous, but really, if you think about how much investment is going into BTC, there remains considerable potential in the short term and in the medium term and in the long term for BTC to have upside potential and that is why some people have predicted $1million per BTC as being possible and within the potential cards.

With this kind of upside price potential, it is a little strange that a few more people would NOT at least invest a little bit of their fiat into such potential. and it is becoming easier and easier to invest into BTC.. and even easier to invest into BTC than it is to invest into the fricken stock market with some of these intermediaries contained within such stock market investment avenues.

As Brg444 and I already batted around in the posts from yesterday, there seem to be potential opening ups (such as Circle) for even greater ease for the masses to get into BTC… and these kinds of BTC investment avenues, such as Circle, could create considerable upsurge in BTC adoption and even avenues for really large quantities of money to get into BTC on a whim.

Currently existing exchanges seem to have a lof of downward manipulations of BTC prices that are seeming to take place through fairly low volume on the exchanges (and maybe even fake volume) on some of these exchanges that cause for considerable disincentives for people to ship large quantities of fiat to the current exchanges .. but it remains really easy for anybody to ship exchanges large quantities of BTC in order to continue to engage in BTC dumping behaviors. If some of these other BTC investment avenues open up to allow for easily and whimsically getting big money into BTC purchases, then that is going to really challenge the ability to downwardly attempt to manipulate BTC prices.




(09-19-2014 06:22 PM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Also just curious what your thoughts are about Bitcoins falling out of peoples minds, news stories, the media. Last year round Thanksgiving and Christmas time Bitcoin were the hottest new thing, mentioned in finance magazines, newspaper, tv, etc. Now you never hear about Bitcoins at all unless your actively engaged in using them. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing. I think its bad in that for Bitcoin to grow in popularity and value we need the masses, however I think its a good thing in the sense back last year alot of the attention was negative attention about the bitcoin sites stealing money or getting hacked. YOu saw all these news stories spreading misinformation about bitcoin as well as making it apppear to people who don't know about bitcoins that bitcoin is flawed when in reality it was the shitty exchanges that were flawed. Thats like saying scottrade stole a bunch of money from people so that means the stock market is a scam, no scottrad is simply a broker, as long as you use a legit broker its not a scam. Maybe bad analogy but basically the media was painting bitcoin as being flawed when in reality it was bad exchanges. Just curious your thoughts about the current value as well as future value and how you view btc not getting attention these days.

I understand what you are saying about negative BTC publicity in the press and there seems to be some need for mass adoption of BTC and there is likely some negative affects on the BTC adoption and price when various negative BTC stories are out there…. And even when there may seem to be a lack of BTC stories.

I am NOT really sure about if you are giving more weight to these mass media stories than they merit. Surely, you are right that the quantity of mass media stories seem to fluctuate, but I am NOT sure whether the quantity is that much lower these days as compared with November and December 2013 because even in current times, from time to time, there remain some pretty juicy and good and positive BTC stories that are hitting the mainstream press.

Personally, I am thinking that more weight needs to be given to the impact of BTC investment vehicles that are going to allow the masses to easily get into BTC that will hamper various aspects of the downward price manipulations (like potentially the Circle thing mentioned above), and when BTC prices begin to rise again, then the herds of people will likely follow along with the press and the hype and VIOLA.. another BTC bubble.

Maybe I am giving too much short-shrift to this media angle that you brought up, but I do tend to think that media attention follows BTC price movement and there do seem to be some mechanisms that will be coming into place in the BTC space (such as Circle and potentially more ETFs including COIN) that is going to make it more difficult for BTC prices to be manipulated downward on the exchanges (though downward BTC price manipulation is going to continue to occur and there will continue to be incentives to downwardly manipulate BTC prices on an ongoing basis).

Hopefully, my long-ass response here addressed most of what you were asking…. And surely some other guys in this thread may have perspectives that vary from mine (well, I am quite confident that there are several RVF guys that have different perspectives than me, seems part of the RVF fabric… Laugh )

Hey, thanks for taking the time to respond. Yeah I feel pretty simlar to you about a lot of things. I was loading up on Bitcoin under $700 thinking we would be heading higher but things slowly went lower. I agree anything under $400 seems like a great buy in my mind, I picked up about 5 more bitcoins yesterday, if it drops down below $380 I'll probalby buy about 5 more, if it drops below $350 I'll probably buy the max allowed everyday until it goes back up, I don't think it should be much lower than that, although I nevr really thought we'd dip below $500 way back when.

I'm mixed about the media stories. A while back it seemed like every day you had new companies adopting bitcoin as a payment option like overstock and all the other companies, we heard about how their sales went up like 25%. I liked those stories but kinda thought it was all a novelty and trying to get free press. I felt like many of these businesses were't realy gungho bitcoin so much as they knew if they began offering bitcoin every other blog would be writing about their company and how they take bitcoin and you get some people who got bitcoins cheap years ago going on spending sprees because there coins will go so far, also probably got some people buying just for the novelty of spending bitcoins and trying to push bitcoin forward.

I used to annoy me like I said that many stories made Bitcoin look bad when in reality it was exchanges that were bad not Bitcoins themselves. I definately however think we need more mainstream interst for Bitcoin to continue to rise.
09-22-2014 09:49 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1874
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(09-22-2014 09:49 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Hey, thanks for taking the time to respond. Yeah I feel pretty simlar to you about a lot of things. I was loading up on Bitcoin under $700 thinking we would be heading higher but things slowly went lower. I agree anything under $400 seems like a great buy in my mind, I picked up about 5 more bitcoins yesterday, if it drops down below $380 I'll probalby buy about 5 more, if it drops below $350 I'll probably buy the max allowed everyday until it goes back up, I don't think it should be much lower than that, although I nevr really thought we'd dip below $500 way back when.

I'm mixed about the media stories. A while back it seemed like every day you had new companies adopting bitcoin as a payment option like overstock and all the other companies, we heard about how their sales went up like 25%. I liked those stories but kinda thought it was all a novelty and trying to get free press. I felt like many of these businesses were't realy gungho bitcoin so much as they knew if they began offering bitcoin every other blog would be writing about their company and how they take bitcoin and you get some people who got bitcoins cheap years ago going on spending sprees because there coins will go so far, also probably got some people buying just for the novelty of spending bitcoins and trying to push bitcoin forward.

I used to annoy me like I said that many stories made Bitcoin look bad when in reality it was exchanges that were bad not Bitcoins themselves. I definately however think we need more mainstream interst for Bitcoin to continue to rise.

Yeah... I think in sum, we both remain bullish about bitcoin, and I believe history is going to prove us correct - but if NOT, then we lose our investment, and move on... which seems fairly unlikely... if we are willing to hold in the medium to long run.. which I would call 6 months to 2 years... ... but NEVER say NEVER in bitcoin-landia.

By the way in 2 years we have the next halfing of the BTC expansion rate.

In your vary latest statement, I kind of have my quibbles because in the end, I have quite a few doubts about mass adoption being the core necessity to raise BTC price considerably. Believe me that I do NOT discount the importance of mass adoption, but I believe that it is already sufficient for the next bubble and the downward manipulation (and accumulation) is holding BTC prices down.. NOT lack of mass adoption.. In my view, the masses will sufficiently follow once the price sufficiently starts going up, and that is why the downward manipulators need to continue to press down on BTC prices in order to prevent a premature explosion in BTC prices before they feel that they have sufficiently accumulated (so knowing this, we in the know need to sufficiently and reasonably continue to accumulate, too).

Forgive me, if I am repeating myself, but personally, what I believe is going on is downward manipulation, on purpose while various aspects of the infrastructure is being built, including a large variety of liquidation avenues... which will make it easier to get in and out of BTC in the future as the prices goes up (which the rick are really going to like this aspect).

In that regard, I believe when some of the bigger players start to feel squeezed and uneasy because they had taken long BTC positions at higher prices or they are just getting anxious, and/or maybe they begin to believe that the lower BTC prices are hampering some of the utility of BTC (especially in the liquidity department and in the ability to make mass investments with BTC without moving the BTC price), then some of them are going to be willing to push up BTC prices considerably, which is going to lock in the profits and make entry into BTC more expensive. I think there is going to be considerable incentives to push the BTC market cap into at least the $65 to $100 billion arena (and even that is NOT considerably great and has room for a lot more further expansion).

In any event, in my thinking there are likely going to be at least a couple more of these BTC bubbles, and the later ones will continue to depend upon a combination of building the BTC infrastructure and mass adoption... and in my thinking, both of these are really going pretty well at the moment.
09-22-2014 12:01 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1875
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Hey Satoshi…

Nice to see your staying pretty active in the ongoing BTC and crypto happenings.. … and I will address your points below…

(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  So I've got long position witch is opened at a average price of $507. And will get liquidated at $310, if I don't add more funds, which I probably should. Do you think I should close it now already and cut the looses, or wait a week or so and see what will happen? I think we could be in this price range for a while, however much not really likely I think?

These kinds of leveraging activities scare the fuck out of me. I am NOT too much of a leverager; however, I realize that your personality is a bit different than mine and you also seem quite a bit more inclined to take greater risks than me.. and maybe even if I knew about BTC in 2012.. I may NOT have taken any chances because I am NOT sure how I would have perceived the whole thing… .. Accordingly, NOT really sure about what I would have done, exactly at that point…

Also, I hate locking in loss, but when you open up some of these leveraged position, then you are paying interest, and like you said they could get forced closed at certain lower price points… and one of the problems with these leveraged positions is that the manipulators like to push prices in one direction or another to force the closing of the leveraged positions.

Really, I do NOT know about which way the price is going to go in the short-term because I frequently am wrong when I attempt to predict.

Satoshi, you and I may kind of have the same senses on this…. I get the sense that there are going to be continued attempts to manipulate down and attempt to hold this price for quite a bit of time to squeeze weak hands out of the market, and the weak hands tend to be the leveraged and the overinvested. How long can they do this or how long they are willing to continue doing this remains somewhat of an open question, and I am starting to believe that there may be some bigger players that are willing to push this downward manipulation into early 2015…. At some point this ongoing downward pressure could hurt BTC developments and VC investments, but I am NOT sure.. I am tending to think that they may want to continue to push the downward pressures… and I believe that they are going to have a considerable amount of difficulties pushing below $350.. but I would NOT be totally shocked if such downward manipulation is accomplished. I also would NOT be totally shocked if the price never went into the $300s or $400s again and BTC prices bounced into the $500s…

Sometimes I believe the downward manipulators want to push and push and push and all of a sudden when we believe there is a pattern, they do the opposite… Those fucks!!!!



(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I'm happy with my MAID position it's nice and steady going up, however it's really small volume. But looking at the walls now it's really bullish:
https://masterxchange.com/market.php?currency=maid

However big walls has been pulled before in the MAID market, both on the buy side and on the sell side. My buy in price is 3500 satoshis, and I've been daytrading a bit there.. Doing fairly good actually, it's such small market that it's really easy once one's been following the market for a while.
Right now I'm about 50/50 MAID/BTC looking at the coins I bought from the beginning, with the BTC as buy orders and the MAID just being HODL until price moves.

Yeah, since it is a small market, it certainly seems risky. I do get the idea that maidsafe can make a decent contribution to P2P storage, but I remain skeptic about some of the monetization aspect(s)… I mean unlike BTC, which has the first app as the currency.

I do also get the idea that guys could become increadibly rich, if they can figure out which of the alts to invest in… and maybe only a few of the nearly 500 will have decent shots at success… depending on a large variety of factors that I may be too lacking in confidence to engage in… I am thinking that I am more of a later investor rather than very early adoptor. With bitcoin, I believe that we are still early adoptors.. but yeah, not as early as some of the other coins… If we get an anticipated exponential growth with BTC, then maybe I will dabble a little more into some of these alts… and attempt to separate what I perceive to be the good and the bad.. if they get some time to establish themselves then that may cause me to get into one or another that is building a base, if it is NOT too late by then.



(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  EXEcoin, which I'm still holding, is worth almost nothing. Probably the studied decision I've done in the crypto world.

This is how I feel about all of my alts (the seven that I purchased through BTC-e). Mine have all lost a considerable amount of their value – between 90 and 99%, and even the recent weeks in which several of the BTC-e alts have been performing very well with greater than 200% profits, I still say, who gives a fuck, because they are still way down for me, after losing most of their value then several of them double.. or triple or whatever…I will still probably wait for the next BTC bubble and then see how the various alts that I hold do and then maybe cash out around that point. At this point all of them that I have add up to less than $400-ish in value.


(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Mastercoin is still making progress in their software but the price is low, and the few coins I'm still holding is worth much less then what I bought them for.
I guess, I would consider Mastercoin to be a 2.0 altcoin, so it seems to have potential – as compared with the ones that I own.


(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  By the way I did also get an invite to Circle, a few weeks ago, but since I'm not American this hole trading thing isn't working and I can only use it as an wallet. Seems to be no major differences compared to blockchain so I see no reason to change it. Actually I can't even find a way to import my privet keys so would have to send all my BTC, and also all MAID and MSC to a new circle wallet. Which I'm not really keen about. However I did get 0.02BTC just for signing up so I'm grateful for that.

so you may find some utility in Circle… but NOT yet the full service.

By the way.. I am NOT sure if I should be jealous or resentful, but if you made your request for an invite before me, then I will be o.k…. otherwise steam will start building. Laugh

Did you request your Circle invite before May 27, 2014?



(09-21-2014 09:09 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Congrats JJG to 100BTC. Would love to hold that amount. A price of $10000 would make you financial independent, if counting on $1M as financially independent.

Yes, if you may have recalled in November 2013, when I began to invest in BTC, my goal was to continue to study and monitor various aspects of BTC fundamentals and the BTC market and to invest approximately $30k spread over approximately 6 months… and then to reassess the situation upon the closing of the 6 month period.. or as time passed.

Between November 2013 and May 2014, I became increasingly confident regarding the ongoing future potential of BTC, which resulted in me overinvesting (from my original assessment) by about 25%, and when I reassessed, I had decided to increase my BTC holdings (and/or exposure), which more or less caused me to double my BTC holdings in June and July… …. Fuck, if I had a little more foresight, I would have spread that June/July investing period out over a few more months, which would have allowed me to take better advantage of this extended dip period, but really, I probably became way too optimistic about the rocket getting to leave the launch pad and thinking that the downward manipulation had been going on long enough and that big players likely wanted to begin to get some of their money back through another exponential growth period….. FUCK!!!!!... I miscalculated that and miscalculated the incentives that likely exist to drag out this flat and downward period for a bit longer.. and I am seeing the light that a downward period could even last a couple of years in order to really weed out the weak hands and for the status quo wealthy to get their way with bitcoin… I have my doubts about whether they would attempt or even be able to be successful to drag out such flat and/or downward manipulation for 2 years.. but it is possible…. And remains in the cards.. and would NOT mean the death or demise of BTC… because even at $100 to $400, BTC continues to have considerable utility… it would just be somewhat dwarft if it were to float in these prices… by the way, I am thinking $100 as a worst case scenario.. because I have quite a few difficulties seeing downward manipulation lower than the previous ATH (of $266), even though NEVER say NEVER in bitcoin-landia.

Surely more holdings is better with BTC, but as we know there remains quite a bit of BTC potential, and people even believe that 1-10 BTC is a good holdings level.. I think we all invest to the extent that we are comfortable, and hope to maintain a sufficiently diverse investment portfolio (well easier as you get older because you may not have as much money to invest when you are younger, but similar principles should apply, in my humble bumble thinking).
09-22-2014 01:17 PM
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