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2017 Stock Market thread - The Beast1 - 01-02-2017 05:56 AM

I've been sitting in cash for the better part of 2016 because of the election.

Missed the gains and am looking to enter back in now. What's on everyone's radar for this year?


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Yeti - 01-02-2017 06:06 AM

Buy and hold as usual. It's possible that 2017 will see 10% + gains again. It's possible also that we'll revert to the mean and experience a drop/correction this year. You never know. My answer as usual is low-cost index funds, purchased a couple weeks at a time.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Que enspastic - 01-02-2017 07:35 AM

Bought LON:ZIN at 60p, currently 161p, target 200-300p


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Hell_Is_Like_Newark - 01-02-2017 12:43 PM

I am staying in cash despite the recent run up in stocks. PE ratios are out of wack and I expect when Trump is sworn in, there will be a wave of negative economic data (from MSM and various government agencies). I won't be shocked by a 20% drop by early 3rd quarter this year in the S&P. I don't expect 'doom' (1930s style crash) as we have so many dollars flowing into the USA right now. The Chinese are not selling US treasuries out of spite.. they have to in order to cover the dollar outflows. China announced that they are ringing in the new year my tightening capital controls even further.

My biggest concerns are debt levels (in particular business and government) and the pending meltdown of state level pensions. The latter IMHO will start to happen during Trump's first term.

Real estate I expect will start to deflate. Current prices are only possible because of the incredibly low interest rates. I expect those rates to rise and at least at first, deflation of real estate prices.

I can't speak for the country as a whole, but in my neck of the country (NYC metro) purchase prices have again (like in the mid 2000's) greatly exceeded rent equivalent value. A lot of property has been bought with little money down with the investor hoping to flip. If prices decline say 10% or 15%, a lot of investors are going to be stuck with cash flow negative investments.

Part of me is hoping for a real estate crash. I was buying property until the early 2000s. Since late 2003, I can't buy, renovate, and rent with a comfortable positive cash flow. I would love to pick up a few more properties before getting to deep into my middle age.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Que enspastic - 01-02-2017 02:36 PM

I'd also be looking to hold stocks with exposure to Zinc and Uranium.

Zinc has a 3 year deficit in supply kicking up prices until demand can be met .

Uranium I can see a rebound from what looks to be a bottom in prices per lb - look at forecast for Chinese nuclear power plant construction over next few years, Trump also appears favourably disposed.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Vincent Chase - 01-02-2017 02:55 PM

Long USD, short oil, short gold, long American financial stock.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - samifon - 01-02-2017 03:17 PM

(01-02-2017 02:55 PM)Vincent Chase Wrote:  Long USD, short oil, short gold, long American financial stock.

I don't see the dollar getting any higher.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Chetthebaker - 01-02-2017 03:32 PM

Gently selling off some biotech. Seems like some price regulation may be in the cards, though Trump won't be as aggressive as HRC..


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Hell_Is_Like_Newark - 01-02-2017 04:02 PM

(01-02-2017 03:17 PM)samifon Wrote:  
(01-02-2017 02:55 PM)Vincent Chase Wrote:  Long USD, short oil, short gold, long American financial stock.

I don't see the dollar getting any higher.

Stronger against gold? Probably Not.

Now what if Italy and a few other countries leave the Euro? What if China starts beating the war drums louder and we start seeing the Chinese and Japanese military rattle sabres and possibly skirmish with each other?

The dollar may not get stronger, but the other fiat reserve currencies may get a whole lot weaker.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - jj90 - 01-02-2017 04:05 PM

Still long VRX and ENDP. Although will likely cut half if not all VRX on a pop up. Not terribly negative on biotech/pharma but think there's plenty of other places better to put money(energy, financials, select euro companies)


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Brodiaga - 01-02-2017 05:33 PM

Good article about emerging markets. I am considering investing a small part of my portfolio in EM index funds and holding for at least a few years.

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/586-the-emerging-markets-hat-trick-time-to-throw-your-hat-in.html

Key points:

-Long-term investors have a unique investing opportunity in emerging market assets given the very rare combination of cheap equity valuations, depressed currencies, and positive momentum in equity prices and economic fundamentals.
-Even after the strong rebounds in emerging market assets since January 2016, which ended prolonged bear markets across the asset class, expected real returns over the next decade are still very attractive.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - fortysix - 01-02-2017 09:38 PM

Looking at my portfolio (which took quite a beating these past few months) my allocation is set forth below. Looking over it, its pretty risky, but I'm still under thirty.

15% small cap Canadian gas explorer
- Gains here pretty much negated all my gold losses.

10% renewable energy (5% each):
Alterra Power
Brookfield Renwable LP

10% uranium small-cap (Fission Uranium Corp)
- Put in 5% six months ago, and 5% more about a month ago. Hoping for a big return here.

15% gold mining
- Doing very bad here this past month.

10% USL (12 month oil ETF)
- Very long and confident here.

10% Total US stockmarket index fund
- This used to be 90% of my portfolio, slowly scaled down this past year, but regret it.

the rest in cash.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - chakalaka - 01-03-2017 07:29 AM

What about oil stocks? Oil seems to have bottomed out. With Trump wouldn´t an increase in oil price and oil companies stocks increase? I´m tempted in putting 50k in oil stocks. Some ETF or big players like Shell, etc.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Que enspastic - 01-03-2017 08:02 AM

Oil stocks : PVR, i3 (when it IPOs), PANR, SQZ


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - fortysix - 01-03-2017 12:41 PM

(01-03-2017 07:29 AM)chakalaka Wrote:  What about oil stocks? Oil seems to have bottomed out. With Trump wouldn´t an increase in oil price and oil companies stocks increase? I´m tempted in putting 50k in oil stocks. Some ETF or big players like Shell, etc.

I like oil, but every oil stock that I've seen is riddled with debt, and also has mostly recovered since the downturn. Do you have any recommendations?


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - jj90 - 01-03-2017 01:09 PM

@fortysix: It's the nature of the industry to have debt, there is high capex. Are there those with low/minimal debt? Sure, but it's work to find them. Found this elsewhere I thought it was decent. Sunoco(SUN)


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Peregrine - 01-04-2017 03:43 PM

I am long USD. About the only view I am confident in.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Travesty - 01-04-2017 03:49 PM

Healthcare ETFs had a great run from 2009-2015. Then they leveled off.

Boomers are aging though and medical expenses will only rise as more people live into their 90s with all this yoga and Whole Foods.

I have a bit in the 3X leveraged bull healthcare ETF: CURE. I expect it to do very well over the next decade.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - fortysix - 01-04-2017 04:20 PM

(01-04-2017 03:49 PM)Travesty Wrote:  Healthcare ETFs had a great run from 2009-2015. Then they leveled off.

Boomers are aging though and medical expenses will only rise as more people live into their 90s with all this yoga and Whole Foods.

I have a bit in the 3X leveraged bull healthcare ETF: CURE. I expect it to do very well over the next decade.

I bought the Vanguard Health Care Fund Investor Shares in my IRA last year at the peak, and I am down over $800 - its the biggest loss in my (relatively small) total portfolio (including the one where I just pick random stocks). I am hoping it will go up eventually - I bought with the same idea as you, just at a bad time.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - tapthatass - 01-04-2017 08:10 PM

I am a trader. I generally trade oil, natgas and NIFTY (indian stock index).

There are only two possible directions, according to me.

1)A silent bull market - Just like the last two months, there might be a silent trending market . Look at S&P from 2004 to 2007. Something like that. It just keeps on slowly creeping up.

2)A roller coaster - 2017 can be a roller coaster because i) Trump might do something stupid ii) Political shocks like brexit


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - jj90 - 01-04-2017 09:50 PM

(01-04-2017 03:49 PM)Travesty Wrote:  I have a bit in the 3X leveraged bull healthcare ETF: CURE. I expect it to do very well over the next decade.
I would suggest you google tracking error and volatility decay.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Travesty - 01-04-2017 10:36 PM

^ Yeah I read about the pitfalls. I don't see a broad a Healthcare ETF like a single stock though. I really believe it has a strong upward trend. I believe it will be similar to consumer staples as it is a steady rise.

Something like biotech, energy, or IT ETFs would be a completely different ball game.

I know all the videos say leave it in for a week max.

I have had my shares since mid November and am up 2.5% on them after a bit of volatility.

It is a tiny part of my portfolio as a fun test. Gone down over 10% then back up from that low point since I've had the shares.

The majority of my healthcare is in VHT.

I'll try to remember to post 6 months from now how it pans out.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Skank_Hunt - 01-07-2017 06:33 PM

The major indices seem overvalued, propped up by heavy stimulus to prevent a meltdown, but the question for 2017 is will this continue or will there be the overdue correction. P/E ratios are very unattractive to me and there doesn't seem to be the real growth in support of these higher index values. I couldn't justify putting cash in there because I very rarely deviate from buy low sell high, and there should be a correction if these were normal market conditions... At the same time it's possible the indices just keep going up quietly albeit for no good reason.

So going from whole indices I will be looking at undervalued sectors within them and investing in ETFs associated with them or a handful of stocks.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Razor Beast - 01-08-2017 01:46 AM

(01-07-2017 06:33 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The major indices seem overvalued, propped up by heavy stimulus to prevent a meltdown, but the question for 2017 is will this continue or will there be the overdue correction. P/E ratios are very unattractive to me and there doesn't seem to be the real growth in support of these higher index values. I couldn't justify putting cash in there because I very rarely deviate from buy low sell high, and there should be a correction if these were normal market conditions... At the same time it's possible the indices just keep going up quietly albeit for no good reason.

So going from whole indices I will be looking at undervalued sectors within them and investing in ETFs associated with them or a handful of stocks.

They keep going up because there are few places outside the stock market you can put money where any reasonable return can be expected. Stock market is richly valued now but given lack of other attractive investment options you really don't have a choice.


RE: 2017 Stock Market thread - Thomas Jackson - 01-08-2017 02:42 PM

(01-03-2017 12:41 PM)fortysix Wrote:  
(01-03-2017 07:29 AM)chakalaka Wrote:  What about oil stocks? Oil seems to have bottomed out. With Trump wouldn´t an increase in oil price and oil companies stocks increase? I´m tempted in putting 50k in oil stocks. Some ETF or big players like Shell, etc.

I like oil, but every oil stock that I've seen is riddled with debt, and also has mostly recovered since the downturn. Do you have any recommendations?

Oil stocks ran up a lot the 2nd half of 2016 as well. If you got them cheap in 2015 you could have done well though.