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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2176
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-13-2015 10:25 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Bitcoin is already making a lot of progress in a lot of areas, and therefore, it already can be used in a lot of ways as an online currency. Surely, work needs to be done, but it has come a long ways in the last couple years to become much more liquid and much more attainable without so many efforts as it had been more more difficult to obtain in years past and in its earlier days.

Exactly. The fiat system will fail eventually and one reason I am active in the bitcoin community, especially with merchants, is that the more merchants take things like bitcoin, litecoin and bitgold, the more we'll have a functioning society that doesn't need central banks and will be able to continue running fine when they all collapse.

Fiat money will end eventually, it always has and these alternatives give us a system that will be running fine when it does end.
08-13-2015 10:50 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2177
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-13-2015 10:50 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(08-13-2015 10:25 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Bitcoin is already making a lot of progress in a lot of areas, and therefore, it already can be used in a lot of ways as an online currency. Surely, work needs to be done, but it has come a long ways in the last couple years to become much more liquid and much more attainable without so many efforts as it had been more more difficult to obtain in years past and in its earlier days.

Exactly. The fiat system will fail eventually and one reason I am active in the bitcoin community, especially with merchants, is that the more merchants take things like bitcoin, litecoin and bitgold, the more we'll have a functioning society that doesn't need central banks and will be able to continue running fine when they all collapse.

Fiat money will end eventually, it always has and these alternatives give us a system that will be running fine when it does end.


This disappreciation of the value of fiat has been an ongoing subtopic within this thread - rather than merely talking about trading bitcoin and potentially profiting from the volatility (if you can time it right), there has also been quite a bit of discussion of the usefulness of hedging your bets in various ways and to be involved in various cryptos has been considered one of the ways to attempt to accomplish such hedging against the fiat system (and various mainstream asset classes that seem to be tied to the success of fiat).

We neither need to believe in a total collapse of fiat nor a $10k increase in BTC prices in the coming couple of years in order to take meaningful steps at hedging our bets outside of mainstream investments.

Surely historically, gold, silver, real estate, etc. have been means to hedge against fiat volatility.

I am maybe a little more extreme than others because I have placed around 10% of my semi-liquid finances into bitcoin; however, I have a sense that more conservative (and less bullish folks) could feel comfortable in placing 1-5% or possibly even less of their semi-liquid assets into bitcoin. I realize as well that people tend to be way too skitish towards various uncertainties in regard to bitcoin in order to place such a large percentage of their finances into it - yet, I am fairly confident that through appreciation in the coming years (probably less than 5 years) Bitcoin is going to become a much larger percentage of my asset diversification (and I mean that I will NOT even have to make any further conscious efforts towards increasing its percentage (except NOT to disinvest) because, I have already largely allocated my various quasi-liquid assets in the bitcoin direction.

Certainly, I could be wrong, but I remain fairly optimistic regarding the ongoing and upcoming upward price direction in BTC in the coming years.
08-13-2015 11:53 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2178
RE: The Bitcoin thread
This morning, I came across a couple of interesting bitcoin links.


This first one gives a basic overview of bitcoin - tied in with politics regarding whether bitcoin will be successful, which is good to use these well written contemporary overviews to present to people who are just learning about bitcoin.


Introducing Bitcoin to Family and Friends


and

this second is a reddit feed discussing whether bitcoin prices are being manipulated down. The price remains a very interesting thing about bitcoin because, there are a large number of people who hold thousands of coins, and then there are people who hold hundreds and 10s of coins. So, really, it makes a person wonder how the price could be so low, when the current quantity of coins is only about 14.5 million. For example, once there are a million bitcoin users, then if they hold 10 coins each on average, there would NOT be many coins left for trading.

Is the bitcoin price being manipulated downward?
08-14-2015 10:50 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2179
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I thought that I should also supplement my earlier post with the below information.


The below linked thread provides a decent discussion regarding theories and methodology concerning bitcoin distribution.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

In essence from the first post of the thread, you can see that the theory is, more or less, that if there happens to be about 1 million bitcoin users,

1) fewer than 100,000 hold 10 or more bitcoins

2) about 250k people hold 1-10 BTC

3) about 650k people hold less than 1 BTC.


With ongoing BTC market manipulations, sometimes it is reasonable to question how those potential manipulations are affecting BTC distribution... and whether the manipulations cause fewer and fewer people (or entities) to hold the large quantity of coins (because they frustrate a large number of regular people regarding price performance and conceptions of BTC profitability).

For example, when the price is so low (less than $300) and the means to obtain BTC has become so easy, it seems very possible that a large number of people could easily buy and hold around 10 BTC - for less than a $3k investment.

I continue to be fairly confused about a lot of these kinds of questions regarding who is holding BTC because frequently, we hear news about people in various countries beginning to invest in BTC because they are concerned about retaining value when they have value being held in their own currency.

Just today, I saw a reference to an article about demand being up in Greece by 600% in the past few weeks... Whatever that is supposed to mean?
08-14-2015 11:25 AM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
What's your thought about Ethereum, JJG?
08-15-2015 08:38 PM
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yolo Offline
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Post: #2181
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I put in 1 bitcoin for shits in giggles over a year ago into the Ethereum presale, and it netted me 12+ BTC a year later. Not bad return.
I think Ethereum has a solid community behind them, with dozens of meet-ups across the world. I have high hopes.
Personally, I'm going to wait until the volatility goes down post-IPO and hopefully re-invest at a lower rate, ~0.004 BTC per ether.
Ethereum is much more complex than Bitcoin, but is still based on similar core principles of blockchain, etc.
So there are more places where things can go wrong.
Where Bitcoin is just a blockchain for one simple currency transactions app, Ethereum is a block-chain custom language for creating many such blockchain-based/decentralized apps.
In theory, Ethereum is the next progression or evolution of Bitcoin/blockchain technologies.
If it doesn't break down somewhere in practice, technically, i.e., security vulnerability, and if its community continues to stay active, I think there's huge potential.
(This post was last modified: 08-15-2015 09:34 PM by yolo.)
08-15-2015 09:16 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
I just woke up to see price below $260 so transferred all my BTC I've bought during the last 7 months to dump. Still waiting for the transactions to clear. Not a block has been mined the last 40 minutes. And kraken requires 3 conformations.
08-16-2015 05:32 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2183
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-15-2015 09:16 PM)yolo Wrote:  I put in 1 bitcoin for shits in giggles over a year ago into the Ethereum presale, and it netted me 12+ BTC a year later. Not bad return.
I think Ethereum has a solid community behind them, with dozens of meet-ups across the world. I have high hopes.
Personally, I'm going to wait until the volatility goes down post-IPO and hopefully re-invest at a lower rate, ~0.004 BTC per ether.
Ethereum is much more complex than Bitcoin, but is still based on similar core principles of blockchain, etc.
So there are more places where things can go wrong.
Where Bitcoin is just a blockchain for one simple currency transactions app, Ethereum is a block-chain custom language for creating many such blockchain-based/decentralized apps.
In theory, Ethereum is the next progression or evolution of Bitcoin/blockchain technologies.
If it doesn't break down somewhere in practice, technically, i.e., security vulnerability, and if its community continues to stay active, I think there's huge potential.

I largely agree with you Yolo, and it seems that you are following Ethereum much more than me, especially, if you have taken measures to buy and sell some.

At this point, I personally have NOT been buying and selling any other Cryptos besides Bitcoin, except a year and a half ago, I bought some of various random other cryptos that were then being traded through BTC-e.

I have continued to stay away from various alt currencies for similar reasons, and that is based on momentum. Surely, there may be a lot of potential to make a lot of money through many of them including ethereum, monero, safemaid, etc, and some of them may have a lot of technological extra contributions, but in the end, bitcoin remains the king of the road of cryptos and that has to do with first player advantage and the amount of network that has been built around bitcoin.

Further, bitcoin has already been the target of many attacks, which have caused increases in its security rather than lessening.. and in that regard, bitcoin, has way more computer and security than it's current price point... and today is in a much better position to sustain a $1,000 to $10,000 price point, as compared to where it was 2 years ago, when it did reach the $1,200 price point.

As many recall, there had already been quite a few shenanigans in Ethereum's history, and Ethereum is only about two years old... accordingly, the fund raising and the use of the millions of dollars of fund raising causes questions about whether Ethereum is still fairly young and may continue to go through several more growing pains of shenanigans, prior to becoming big and developed enough to have evolved systems and measures to safeguard against some of these kinds of problems.

The growing pains of any system is the problem of increasing value causing incentives for bad people to attack and incentives to extract value from a system that does NOT have securities already tested. In my view, Bitcoin remains in a better place, at this point, to have already been attacked many times and will likely be able to continue to sustain attacks, if and when they continue to come.



(08-15-2015 08:38 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  What's your thought about Ethereum, JJG?


Satoshi: Tell us your thoughts regarding Ethereum. I'm sure that you have thoughts about it's mid to long term potentials, as well, and you are likely a whole hell of a lot more informed (especially regarding the technical aspects and maybe some of the ongoing happenings of ethereum) than me.
08-16-2015 01:31 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-16-2015 05:32 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  I just woke up to see price below $260 so transferred all my BTC I've bought during the last 7 months to dump. Still waiting for the transactions to clear. Not a block has been mined the last 40 minutes. And kraken requires 3 conformations.



I am NOT so convinced about selling in a downtrend... and regarding where is the bottom of the downtrend based on current news and concerns about forking, etc.... Variations of this forking issue has been in the news for a few weeks, it seems.... and I do NOT see any new developments that really justify a clear signal that BTC prices are going to continue to go down... as far as I know, $255 could be the bottom.

MY continued strategy, regarding bitcoin, remains deciding when, exactly, to buy more.

Surely, it is possible that BTC prices will continue to go down and to breach $250 and even lower price points.... yet I am NOT convinced.....

Satoshi, if you sold around $260, then where would you buy back in? Around $230? I understand that when you buy back and at what point you buy back is in part determined by how long a downtrend continues... and surely, you would be able to rest more assured that you did the right thing, so long as prices go below $250; however, if prices do NOT go below $250, then BTC prices may begin to trend back upwards, and then you have to decide, at what point, if at all, to buy back in.

I may buy some more in the coming days if price goes back below $255... depending upon when or if I catch it... In about the last 8 hours, BTC prices have been hovering between $255 and $257.... yet the trend over the past couple weeks has generally been down... though the trend over the past 3 months is generally up...

These different trends, depending on the chosen timeline affects my thinking about what to do, and generally, I consider all of the $200 price points to be very good buy value for BTC.
08-16-2015 01:42 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2185
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's a link to an older article (from January 2015) discussing the current BTC fork "crisis."

http://qntra.net/2015/01/the-hard-fork-missile-crisis/
08-16-2015 02:58 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm not really planing to buy back in since I don't think that the price will rise again, and if it does I do believe that it will be just temporary. As I've been writing about earlier in the thread there is many flaws with bitcoins. The block size was one of them. Even if that's been solved now it increases another problem instead, blockchain size. Bitcoin mining is pretty much centralized theses days. Though the biggest problem is having to wait for blocks for transactions to confirm. I had to wait more than one hour for my kraken deposit to clear. It's just a little bit too annoying. A little bit too much 2009. Outdated technology.

Etereum is up and running and seems to be working fine. Twelve seconds blocks in much better than ten, however it's still worse than instant. Etereum protocol is cool and there seems to be lots of possibilities for different types of applications to be built on it. However I do not really see why I should have to hold ether coins myself. They are said to "fuel" the contracts, and how that works, I don't know. Me myself, personaly, have no direct interest in making contracts on the etereum blockchain today, so I don't have any interest in buying the coins today, except for speculating and at this moment the price seems to be all over the place. And I don't think most people buying ether coins have any interest in making contracts either, so price is pretty much speculations.

I've bought 7.7BTC for a price of €1664 the last six-seven months. Today I'm selling 7BTC for the same price. So a small BTC profit on those trades. As for the coins I bought in early 2013, the ones remaining I've used to buy MAIDSAFE. I'm holding quite a lot of MAIDSAFE coins, I've been considering buying more of them for the remaining 7BTC, but I decided not to do so. I still don't know what I will do for the €1664, just having some extra cash in the bank for spending will be enough I guess.

I've been following MAIDSAFE since IPO and I've been writing about it earlier in this thread so I won't write anything more about it. Development seems to be going great so I'm even more bullish than before.

If BTC goes to $32.000 I'll regret selling today. However I do think that the chances of that is really small, if not none exciting. Chances of double digits is bigger, in my opinion. I'm almost writing this with a tear in my eye.

Looking in my email inbox the earliest bitcoin related mail I got is from first of November 2012 when I bought 5.56BTC for a price of €56.33. I'm pretty sure that I bought those coins to imminently spend on silk road. It took me a few more months to buy and hold. Of course I regret I didn't sell more when price was over $1000, I could have sold and bought a nice car or a two-three years full time traveling back then. Still I've been lucky and made a quite big fiat profit. Selling the coins I bought in the last months also with a profit, yet small, feels good. If it drops a bit more I will be in the red for this last coins and I don't want that.

I know one thing for sure and that is that the day one crypto currency is ready to go mainstream, the business is already there. Kraken added etereum in the first day and selling ether for € is as easy as selling bitcoins for €. Wouldn't take too much effort for coinbase or bitpay to add ether either.
08-16-2015 07:11 PM
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brg444 Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Shrinked balls blabber

You are unworthy of your username.

Quote:Though the biggest problem is having to wait for blocks for transactions to confirm. I had to wait more than one hour for my kraken deposit to clear. It's just a little bit too annoying. A little bit too much 2009. Outdated technology.

Your "concerns" are so 2009, it's a wonder you've held this long seeing as how little your thought process has evolved.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2015 12:38 AM by brg444.)
08-17-2015 12:37 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I'm not really planing to buy back in since I don't think that the price will rise again, and if it does I do believe that it will be just temporary. As I've been writing about earlier in the thread there is many flaws with bitcoins. The block size was one of them. Even if that's been solved now it increases another problem instead, blockchain size. Bitcoin mining is pretty much centralized theses days. Though the biggest problem is having to wait for blocks for transactions to confirm. I had to wait more than one hour for my kraken deposit to clear. It's just a little bit too annoying. A little bit too much 2009. Outdated technology.

To me, your thoughts sound a bit erratic, and maybe you are somewhat biased by some kind of desire to make money in the short term, rather than investing in the long term. There is NOTHING wrong with having a desire for quicker returns, but I really see no logic in denigrating bitcoin in the process. In other words, you seem to be over exaggerating thoughts about some kind of upcoming calamity in bitcoin, and really, it is NOT likely to be all that you are making it out to be...

In the past nearly 9 months, there have been tests after tests after tests of bitcoin and attempts to drive the price below $200... and we had $200 for a day or even less than a day... and then there were additional tests to bring it lower than that... surely, in the last 9 months we have only spent a few days above $300, but in the near future, bitcoin is again going above $300 and again into the thousands of dollars.... maybe it will take a year or two, but it will be going up in the near future, because there really is NO other crypto currency competition that even comes in the ball park of being near to the infrastructure built around bitcoin.....

Whatever you are calling centralization in Bitcoin is NOT even close to centralization.... Surely, there are a lot of entities that are centralized that are trying to get a piece of the bitcoin pie.. and there are also a lot of big players (pools) that are investing in bitcoin mining... but hardly centralized, and that is part of the reason why we are getting a bit of politics and a fork battle and some uncertainty and politicking in the attempts of the two sides to get their way in the outcome (which at this point still remains uncertain and causes negative BTC price pressures when there exists such uncertainties in what's going to happen with the fork).

In spite of all of this, BTC prices seem to be holding up well, and there are difficulties attempting to bring prices below $250.. in spite of a few apparent players dumping large quantities of coins that are getting absorbed by others in the BTC trading markets....






(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Etereum is up and running and seems to be working fine. Twelve seconds blocks in much better than ten, however it's still worse than instant. Etereum protocol is cool and there seems to be lots of possibilities for different types of applications to be built on it. However I do not really see why I should have to hold ether coins myself. They are said to "fuel" the contracts, and how that works, I don't know. Me myself, personaly, have no direct interest in making contracts on the etereum blockchain today, so I don't have any interest in buying the coins today, except for speculating and at this moment the price seems to be all over the place. And I don't think most people buying ether coins have any interest in making contracts either, so price is pretty much speculations.


Surely, the price of Ethereum depends on a variety of factors, and investment into the coins (and potentially speculation) is part of that. Maybe it would NOT hurt to have a little bit of money in Ethereum, yet I do NOT mind keeping my money in bitcoin and to what the extent to which Ethereum may evolve in the coming years... and surely if some of the Ethereum investors become rich.. more the power to them.


(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I've bought 7.7BTC for a price of €1664 the last six-seven months. Today I'm selling 7BTC for the same price. So a small BTC profit on those trades. As for the coins I bought in early 2013, the ones remaining I've used to buy MAIDSAFE. I'm holding quite a lot of MAIDSAFE coins, I've been considering buying more of them for the remaining 7BTC, but I decided not to do so. I still don't know what I will do for the €1664, just having some extra cash in the bank for spending will be enough I guess.

These kinds of comments cause me to believe that maybe you were just over extended in BTC for your own psychological comfort level.

Ultimately, in my thinking, it is better to be "in" various cryptos rather than in fiat, but in order to have that kind of mindset, a guy has to already have sufficient quantities of fiat and/or fiat cash flow. In fact for me, I am just continuing to invest into BTC.. but never too large of a percentage of my total cash flow in order that I can NOT really worry too much about the fiat investment.... so for example, in the last 6-8 months, I have had a few strains on my cash flow, but I was still able to put some continued and smaller percentage of my cash flow into btc... (not as much as previously, but that is mostly due to a few unexpected constraints in my fiat cash flow supply).

NOTE: nearly always, we have to be sufficiently prepared that from time to time, we may have unexpected occurrences and in that regard, the unexpected is expected and there are some safeguards in place to deal with such when they do occur.





(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I've been following MAIDSAFE since IPO and I've been writing about it earlier in this thread so I won't write anything more about it. Development seems to be going great so I'm even more bullish than before.

If BTC goes to $32.000 I'll regret selling today. However I do think that the chances of that is really small, if not none exciting. Chances of double digits is bigger, in my opinion. I'm almost writing this with a tear in my eye.

There is NOTHING wrong with people having differing perspectives about the price direction. Surely, some bad things could happen in bitcoin, but I put those probabilities at a much lower likelihood than you do. Accordingly, I view the upside potential to be much greater than the downside potential... and surely, anyone can be wrong about these kinds of price prediction matters.






(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Looking in my email inbox the earliest bitcoin related mail I got is from first of November 2012 when I bought 5.56BTC for a price of €56.33. I'm pretty sure that I bought those coins to imminently spend on silk road. It took me a few more months to buy and hold. Of course I regret I didn't sell more when price was over $1000, I could have sold and bought a nice car or a two-three years full time traveling back then. Still I've been lucky and made a quite big fiat profit. Selling the coins I bought in the last months also with a profit, yet small, feels good. If it drops a bit more I will be in the red for this last coins and I don't want that.

I know one thing for sure and that is that the day one crypto currency is ready to go mainstream, the business is already there. Kraken added etereum in the first day and selling ether for € is as easy as selling bitcoins for €. Wouldn't take too much effort for coinbase or bitpay to add ether either.


Yes, it is possible that some day, some of the other mainstream bitcoin businesses, such as coinbase and/or circle will add some other crypto's besides bitcoin... but that day may be quite some time into the future, as far as I can tell.
08-17-2015 02:14 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 12:37 AM)brg444 Wrote:  
(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Shrinked balls blabber

You are unworthy of your username.

Quote:Though the biggest problem is having to wait for blocks for transactions to confirm. I had to wait more than one hour for my kraken deposit to clear. It's just a little bit too annoying. A little bit too much 2009. Outdated technology.

Your "concerns" are so 2009, it's a wonder you've held this long seeing as how little your thought process has evolved.


I have had some similar reactions in reading Satoshi's post....

Seems like there could be some apparent crazy talk going on and some inconsistencies, yet at the same time, I understand that guys have to come to their own various conclusions regarding how to proceed with their investments... even if some of the thought process seems to be somewhat rash and lacking in measured efforts going forward.
08-17-2015 02:21 AM
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zaqan Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
I had the chance to buy in back when it was in the mid double digits. Twenties maybe? And I never did. In fairness, it was not as easy then as it is now, however, I did get to see one of the first ATMs in 2012 or 2013. I have sold some stuff for bitcoin, so I now have like a third or half of one. I would like to do more with it, but options are limited outside the right circles.
08-17-2015 10:09 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 10:09 AM)zaqan Wrote:  I had the chance to buy in back when it was in the mid double digits. Twenties maybe? And I never did. In fairness, it was not as easy then as it is now, however, I did get to see one of the first ATMs in 2012 or 2013. I have sold some stuff for bitcoin, so I now have like a third or half of one. I would like to do more with it, but options are limited outside the right circles.

If you know about bitcoin, then at these prices many people should be able to acquire a few bitcoins (rather than fractions of a bitcoin). NONETHELESS, it is good to invest and or hold an amount that is comfortable for you (and if that is a fraction of a coin, then so be it).

Your point about liquidity of bitcoin remains important, and in that regard, in many places in the world, there have developed more and more sources of buying and selling bitcoin or using bitcoin to buy and/or sell goods and services. In that regard, it is really easy just to create some kind of wallet or an account that denominates in bitcoin...
08-17-2015 12:23 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 12:37 AM)brg444 Wrote:  
(08-16-2015 07:11 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Shrinked balls blabber

You are unworthy of your username.

Quote:Though the biggest problem is having to wait for blocks for transactions to confirm. I had to wait more than one hour for my kraken deposit to clear. It's just a little bit too annoying. A little bit too much 2009. Outdated technology.

Your "concerns" are so 2009, it's a wonder you've held this long seeing as how little your thought process has evolved.

A little bit butthurt huh?

(08-17-2015 02:14 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In the past nearly 9 months, there have been tests after tests after tests of bitcoin and attempts to drive the price below $200... and we had $200 for a day or even less than a day... and then there were additional tests to bring it lower than that... surely, in the last 9 months we have only spent a few days above $300, but in the near future, bitcoin is again going above $300 and again into the thousands of dollars.... maybe it will take a year or two, but it will be going up in the near future, because there really is NO other crypto currency competition that even comes in the ball park of being near to the infrastructure built around bitcoin.....

Well I used to believe the same as you, I don't anymore, that's why I sold. I would be the first one to cry if I'm proven wrong.
08-17-2015 02:25 PM
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SunW Offline
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The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 02:25 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  
(08-17-2015 02:14 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In the past nearly 9 months, there have been tests after tests after tests of bitcoin and attempts to drive the price below $200... and we had $200 for a day or even less than a day... and then there were additional tests to bring it lower than that... surely, in the last 9 months we have only spent a few days above $300, but in the near future, bitcoin is again going above $300 and again into the thousands of dollars.... maybe it will take a year or two, but it will be going up in the near future, because there really is NO other crypto currency competition that even comes in the ball park of being near to the infrastructure built around bitcoin.....

Well I used to believe the same as you, I don't anymore, that's why I sold. I would be the first one to cry if I'm proven wrong.

Yeah, there is a very low probability that bitcoin will be hitting a thousand, or more, over the next four to five years and possibly a decade. Emerging markets have entered a bear market, the CRB index is falling to 10+ year lows, rental units in many places are in high demand, along with a multitude of other factors right now. The good news is that these will present all of us with buying opportunities of a lifetime.

Still, I'm getting a 10% return on bitcoin through BitLendingClub, so I'm one of the only bitcoin non-speculators in this thread. You earn consistent returns by investing, not hoping.
08-17-2015 03:41 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 02:25 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  
(08-17-2015 02:14 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In the past nearly 9 months, there have been tests after tests after tests of bitcoin and attempts to drive the price below $200... and we had $200 for a day or even less than a day... and then there were additional tests to bring it lower than that... surely, in the last 9 months we have only spent a few days above $300, but in the near future, bitcoin is again going above $300 and again into the thousands of dollars.... maybe it will take a year or two, but it will be going up in the near future, because there really is NO other crypto currency competition that even comes in the ball park of being near to the infrastructure built around bitcoin.....

Well I used to believe the same as you, I don't anymore, that's why I sold. I would be the first one to cry if I'm proven wrong.


Fair enough. Only time will tell on this one, and watching the price - whether it takes 1 week to find out or 1 year.

I really don't have any major problem with your strategy because it is a personal choice of yours regarding how to proceed. On the other hand, as I have likely already articulated, I find your strategy to be quite a bit more extreme than my own, because you seem to be divesting about 90% of your bitcoin holdings (that is if you have decided to hold onto .7BTC). On the other hand, I do NOT know or claim to know your total diversification of investment assets, and possibly, given your circumstances, you have taken a reasonable step in the right direction for yourself.
08-17-2015 04:53 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 03:41 PM)SunW Wrote:  
(08-17-2015 02:25 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  
(08-17-2015 02:14 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In the past nearly 9 months, there have been tests after tests after tests of bitcoin and attempts to drive the price below $200... and we had $200 for a day or even less than a day... and then there were additional tests to bring it lower than that... surely, in the last 9 months we have only spent a few days above $300, but in the near future, bitcoin is again going above $300 and again into the thousands of dollars.... maybe it will take a year or two, but it will be going up in the near future, because there really is NO other crypto currency competition that even comes in the ball park of being near to the infrastructure built around bitcoin.....

Well I used to believe the same as you, I don't anymore, that's why I sold. I would be the first one to cry if I'm proven wrong.

Yeah, there is a very low probability that bitcoin will be hitting a thousand, or more, over the next four to five years and possibly a decade. Emerging markets have entered a bear market, the CRB index is falling to 10+ year lows, rental units in many places are in high demand, along with a multitude of other factors right now. The good news is that these will present all of us with buying opportunities of a lifetime.

Still, I'm getting a 10% return on bitcoin through BitLendingClub, so I'm one of the only bitcoin non-speculators in this thread. You earn consistent returns by investing, not hoping.


Again, SunW, your posts sounds like you are competing with some of the rest of us in order to be correct.

We will see about the price direction of bitcoin...

You are pretty bold to be claiming to be able to predict bitcoin prices (or NON-prices) for the next 10 years, but all the more power to you, if you happen to be correct in your assessment. I get the sense that you are talking financial mumbo-jumbo talk if you are attempting to suggest that there are a multitude of other "great" investments, other than bitcoin.
08-17-2015 04:57 PM
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SunW Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 04:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Again, SunW, your posts sounds like you are competing with some of the rest of us in order to be correct.

We will see about the price direction of bitcoin...

You are pretty bold to be claiming to be able to predict bitcoin prices (or NON-prices) for the next 10 years, but all the more power to you, if you happen to be correct in your assessment. I get the sense that you are talking financial mumbo-jumbo talk if you are attempting to suggest that there are a multitude of other "great" investments, other than bitcoin.

Low probability is not a prediction. Depending where someone's positioned, it might be a hope.
08-17-2015 05:13 PM
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BBinger Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
So, it looks like Hearnia's XTCoin fork is dead on announcement. Not an unexpected outcome, but price on BTC/Fiat exchanges will probably remain a bit depressed these next couple weeks as people realize hard consensus means hard. The latest email that might actually be from historical Satoshi is interesting while maintaining beautiful plausible deniability. It has been a while since I've been this optimistic about the future.
08-17-2015 08:19 PM
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zaqan Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Bitcoin will definitely go up in value significantly. The question is how the forking and changes will pan out. It has very small adoption right now, but grows every day, which means it will naturally have to gain value over time. We should probably be very happy that it has levelled out for the past months. Its still volatile, but not like it was previously.
08-17-2015 11:07 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 05:13 PM)SunW Wrote:  
(08-17-2015 04:57 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Again, SunW, your posts sounds like you are competing with some of the rest of us in order to be correct.

We will see about the price direction of bitcoin...

You are pretty bold to be claiming to be able to predict bitcoin prices (or NON-prices) for the next 10 years, but all the more power to you, if you happen to be correct in your assessment. I get the sense that you are talking financial mumbo-jumbo talk if you are attempting to suggest that there are a multitude of other "great" investments, other than bitcoin.

Low probability is not a prediction. Depending where someone's positioned, it might be a hope.


Yes, hopefully we take investment actions based on our future view of probabilities, and timelines for such probable events.

There may be hope included in the calculation as well, but I see no need to denigrate another persons predictions regarding probabilities by labelling them as hope(s), even if you do NOT agree with such views on probabilities.

I have few ideas regarding the role, exactly of bitcoin in financial markets in the next 10 years, but as you know from my previous posts, currently, I have some of my portfolio diversified into such. I am expecting there to be some kind of exponential rise in BTC value in the coming couple of years, yet I am NOT opposed to reassessing my investments, if those kinds of reassessments seem appropriate based on my own particulars.

The current price action of bitcoin seems to be that there is some uncertainties regarding which way is the price going to go in the coming weeks... but that uncertainties about direction seems to have been ongoing in the BTC space for more than 6 months... a bit frustrating for some and also causing the exiting of some persons who were previous BTC bulls (Satoshi seems to be a decent example of such).
08-18-2015 03:17 AM
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SunW Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(08-17-2015 08:19 PM)BBinger Wrote:  So, it looks like Hearnia's XTCoin fork is dead on announcement. Not an unexpected outcome, but price on BTC/Fiat exchanges will probably remain a bit depressed these next couple weeks as people realize hard consensus means hard. The latest email that might actually be from historical Satoshi is interesting while maintaining beautiful plausible deniability. It has been a while since I've been this optimistic about the future.

Thanks for sharing those; very interesting. I think this is good in general just because it addresses bitcoin viability with regards to controversy.

Of course, media may spin this as a negative and I expect as much. The media love to bitcoin-bash, as they all ultimately are unintentionally serving central bank's interests (we'll eventually see cash-bashing too because cash does take away some control from central bankers).
08-18-2015 08:03 AM
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