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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2451
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-28-2015 12:05 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I recently read Nathaniel Popper's Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money, and I'm sold on the concept of bitcoin (the book itself was a great read, especially for anyone looking for an introduction to the ideas/history behind the cryptocurrency).

I want to start moving a bit of my cash savings into bitcoin, preferably by dollar cost averaging a few dollars (~$5) each day for the next year or so.

Would any of you guys be able to advise me on the best way to go about that?

I was thinking I'd maintain a "hot" wallet on an exchange like Circle for purchasing new bitcoins, and then transfer them once a month or so to a "cold" wallet for long-term storage, perhaps by downloading the private key to a thumb drive, or printing/laminating it on a piece of paper and storing that in my safe.

This will be purely for (most likely mid-to-long-term) investing purposes, not for purchasing goods/services, so I'm less concerned with anonymity, security, and merchant access, and more concerned with reducing my transaction fees as much as possible. That's why I'm looking at Circle, which (for now at least) doesn't charge to convert funds to or from bitcoin with a linked bank account, or to store bitcoins, or for bitcoin transactions.

Any thoughts/suggestions?

As SunW mentioned, I think that you are employing a similar method as I had been employing, since the beginning of my BTC investment. Surely, it sounds as if you have a lot of decent ideas already, and as you may have read earlier, I have never really gotten into private storage avenues, but it is not necessarily a bad idea and can be good in various ways to really store your coins privately and securely. One of the problems with long term solutions like those, though is that you do have to be responsible for remembering your access 5 or 10 years down the road, which could be a problem if you do not take some safeguarding methods.



Regarding low fees, circle is a pretty decent mechanism, but sometimes you may find other avenues with lower fees, for example sending funds to some exchange, and then once you buy the bitcoins, you can transfer them to where ever you like.

I think bitcoin is in a much better position as compared with when I got started, but when I got started, I first allocated $30 k for over 6 months, and then I reconsidered my investment at the end of that period, and allocated more at the end, and I kept investing for the past 2 years with reconsideration every few months about how to proceed.

Accordingly, you may want to consider for a bit further out. Of course, $5 per day can work, but you may want to consider some other lump sum methods.

So for example if you dedicated $150 for the month, then you may want to time it a bit better. Maybe divide the month into three? if you are at first not sure about the price movement, then you invest $50 and wait... then if the price drops you invest the other $50 and if it goes up you wait... and maybe it will come back down and you invest the last portion of the $50.

You could do both. Have one part of the money that you invest no matter what... $5 every other day, and then the other half of the investment fund, you attempt to be strategic about it and to invest on dips (dividing it how you like). Your budget is what it is, and if you feel comfortable with $150 a month, there are still a variety of ways to be strategic about it while you are building up your bitcoin holdings.

I personally, recall that I wanted to purposefully frontload my BTC investment, so I dedicated about 1/4 of my total 6month investment allocation towards the 1st month, and after that I spread the remaining over the remaining 5 months. Here it sounds as if you are working with a smaller amount than I was.. maybe $900 to $1000 over 6 months... that is not a lot, but it is something... and maybe you could consider $250 over each of the first two months and then spread the remaining $500 out over the remaining 4 months.....

Don't take anything that I say as investment advice, just a bit of brainstorming in order that you may want to think about other possible ways of dividing up your investment and maybe getting a bit more stake in the game... but ultimately it is up to you and your budget and your financial situation and overall comfort level.
12-28-2015 10:28 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2452
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-28-2015 05:21 PM)SunW Wrote:  Isaac what you're doing is similar to what JayJuanGee is doing (dollar cost averaging), so he'll be more than happy to help you out.

Good point about the fees; might be worth posting all the different sites and the fees, though I'm sure it changes.


Regarding fees, etc.. some of that does change over time, but earlier I did mention each of the various services that I have used, and guys should be able to research into any of those and to ask questions...

hahahahaha.. we haven't been having too much interactions regarding those kinds of details in recent times, so it may be a bit of a waste of time, if guys are not specifically interacting regarding possible avenues to obtain BTC or trade BTC or even to monitor various BTC news.

I suspect when price goes to $1,000

or even to my "pie in the sky" projections of $3,000 to $5,000, then interest is going to pick up...

hahahahaha
12-28-2015 10:33 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2453
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I found the below-linked article to be pretty interesting and showing the current ranking of bitcoin in the payment's processing arena and suggesting its future competitiveness in the payments processing space. One thing in order to assist bitcoin in its competitiveness will be to double or triple or even 10x its price(market cap) in order to have better liquidity for players who may want to quickly transfer $10-$100 million in value from one local to another but to have little to no slippage in the BTC price during such transactions whether they decided to cash in and out of bitcoin or not.

right now, it would be pretty easy to make a quick transaction of less than 1/4 million dollars with little slippage in the price (that's 500 BTC), but when you get to larger amounts of BTC, it gets harder and harder to get rid of them quickly without potentially causing some unwanted slippage.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2015/12/29/visa-b...e-anymore/
12-28-2015 10:44 PM
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #2454
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-27-2015 05:53 PM)thisisright Wrote:  blockchain do not hold your keys. But their security track record is nothing but a shame. They have been a target of multiple security attacks and users lots money.

If you are holding a significant amount, it's reckless not to own the keys. You are "double" gambling. A good start is "Master Bitcoin" by Andreas A.M.

Ah, I'm just going to appreciate the irony in Andreas once having been a head of security at blockchain.info

Seriously though I have trouble understanding the people who would rather Paypal their Bitcoin by putting it on websites instead of their own keys. Gotta wonder if they even run a full node.
12-29-2015 08:45 AM
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #2455
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-27-2015 08:25 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  At this point, it is becoming less clear about whether to treat you seriously or to treat you as a troll.

I believe that I made it sufficiently clear regarding my understanding 3rd party risk with spreading my bitcoins through the already listed entities, but you continue in an apparently repetitive patronizing and lecturing tone.

Regarding your choice of the term gambling, that term is fairly laden with baggage and imprecision.

In that regard, you should hopefully acknowledge that there is a difference between gambling and various other kinds of informed risk-taking.. Accordingly, your choice of the expression " 'double' gambling" seems imprecise at best or a purposeful attempt to interject judgmental patronizing in a worse interpretation.

He's not trolling. He likely just perceives the informed risk you are taking as being several orders of magnitude greater than you do. For the record I lean towards his interpretation of the risk.

It's like the two of you are at a bar and he's really concerned about the thing on the lip of that girl you're planning to stick it in.
12-29-2015 08:59 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2456
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Under some of SunW's previously proposed theories regarding bitcoin's price connection to macro-economic trends, the below article may explain a little potential upsurge in BTC prices in the near-term based on downgrading of the valuation of the Chinese Yuan


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-28...-june-2011
12-29-2015 11:51 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2457
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-29-2015 08:59 AM)BBinger Wrote:  
(12-27-2015 08:25 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  At this point, it is becoming less clear about whether to treat you seriously or to treat you as a troll.

I believe that I made it sufficiently clear regarding my understanding 3rd party risk with spreading my bitcoins through the already listed entities, but you continue in an apparently repetitive patronizing and lecturing tone.

Regarding your choice of the term gambling, that term is fairly laden with baggage and imprecision.

In that regard, you should hopefully acknowledge that there is a difference between gambling and various other kinds of informed risk-taking.. Accordingly, your choice of the expression " 'double' gambling" seems imprecise at best or a purposeful attempt to interject judgmental patronizing in a worse interpretation.

He's not trolling. He likely just perceives the informed risk you are taking as being several orders of magnitude greater than you do. For the record I lean towards his interpretation of the risk.

It's like the two of you are at a bar and he's really concerned about the thing on the lip of that girl you're planning to stick it in.


Yep... Understood, and it seems that I have sufficiently stated my position, even though some (or even several) guys may have a different view regarding the situation, which should not be a problem.

If we are adults, we should be able to freely make informed choices, even when others do not agree.
12-29-2015 12:03 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2458
RE: The Bitcoin thread
The chart linked at the top of the below-linked Reddit post shows that there has been about 1 billion dollars invested in various Bitcoin ventures so far in the past few years, which venture investments into bitcoin will likely continue to increase in the coming years


http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments...graph_not/
12-29-2015 12:05 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2459
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I think we need to start a RooshVCoin. Let's download the source code, start one, and have an official currency of Neomasculinity/RP.

Agree2

See, Roosh agrees.

(12-29-2015 12:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  If we are adults, we should be able to freely make informed choices, even when others do not agree.

Exactly; we're not butt-hurt Yale graduates who get our feelings hurt when someone disagrees. Bitcoin is in for an interesting year!
(This post was last modified: 12-30-2015 05:31 PM by SunW.)
12-30-2015 05:29 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2460
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-30-2015 05:29 PM)SunW Wrote:  I think we need to start a RooshVCoin. Let's download the source code, start one, and have an official currency of Neomasculinity/RP.

Agree2

See, Roosh agrees.

I recall that in around the early to mid-2014 time frame, during the alt-coin mania period, some posters were proposing a RooshV coin, and even described some specifics - that seemed potentially reasonable, if anyone were to follow through, which I think that there was little to no follow through, but you never know about behind the scenes if Roosh may have considered such an alt-coin possibility.

Also, Roosh used to accept bitcoin payment for silver and gold membership, but it appears that was discontinued - even though it would seem that bitcoin would be much less burdensome than Paypal (including lower administrative fees), yet maybe Roosh became irritated with BTC prices dropping by more than 60% and languishing in the $200s for so long... ?



(12-30-2015 05:29 PM)SunW Wrote:  
(12-29-2015 12:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  If we are adults, we should be able to freely make informed choices, even when others do not agree.

Exactly; we're not butt-hurt Yale graduates who get our feelings hurt when someone disagrees. Bitcoin is in for an interesting year!

A couple of years ago, you could only invest in bitcoin or sell it, and then there developed more options to short it and to margin trade it. So, I suppose, you don't have to necessarily be a bitcoin bull to participate in this thread as long as you have some involvement in bitcoin besides theory.

In late 2013 and even through 2014, there were quite a few posters who would come in and troll the thread (and who were banned), and a general patterned seemed to be posters who would lecture how bitcoin is bad.. blah, blah, blah in order to save the bitcoin investors from themselves.

The problem with a large number of those troll posters was their lack of involvement in BTC and judging and lecturing rather than the fact that they ended up being correct about the long bear trend that ensued mostly between late 2013 and late 2015.
12-30-2015 06:31 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2461
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I had read the below linked article yesterday, and I had meant to post it here. I


t seems pretty well reasoned and interesting regarding why bitcoin is a good investment.

https://news.bitcoin.com/four-reasons-in...s-bitcoin/
12-31-2015 02:24 AM
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Isaac Jordan Offline
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Post: #2462
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-28-2015 10:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  As SunW mentioned, I think that you are employing a similar method as I had been employing, since the beginning of my BTC investment. Surely, it sounds as if you have a lot of decent ideas already, and as you may have read earlier, I have never really gotten into private storage avenues, but it is not necessarily a bad idea and can be good in various ways to really store your coins privately and securely. One of the problems with long term solutions like those, though is that you do have to be responsible for remembering your access 5 or 10 years down the road, which could be a problem if you do not take some safeguarding methods.

Regarding low fees, circle is a pretty decent mechanism, but sometimes you may find other avenues with lower fees, for example sending funds to some exchange, and then once you buy the bitcoins, you can transfer them to where ever you like.

I think bitcoin is in a much better position as compared with when I got started, but when I got started, I first allocated $30 k for over 6 months, and then I reconsidered my investment at the end of that period, and allocated more at the end, and I kept investing for the past 2 years with reconsideration every few months about how to proceed.

Accordingly, you may want to consider for a bit further out. Of course, $5 per day can work, but you may want to consider some other lump sum methods.

So for example if you dedicated $150 for the month, then you may want to time it a bit better. Maybe divide the month into three? if you are at first not sure about the price movement, then you invest $50 and wait... then if the price drops you invest the other $50 and if it goes up you wait... and maybe it will come back down and you invest the last portion of the $50.

You could do both. Have one part of the money that you invest no matter what... $5 every other day, and then the other half of the investment fund, you attempt to be strategic about it and to invest on dips (dividing it how you like). Your budget is what it is, and if you feel comfortable with $150 a month, there are still a variety of ways to be strategic about it while you are building up your bitcoin holdings.

I personally, recall that I wanted to purposefully frontload my BTC investment, so I dedicated about 1/4 of my total 6month investment allocation towards the 1st month, and after that I spread the remaining over the remaining 5 months. Here it sounds as if you are working with a smaller amount than I was.. maybe $900 to $1000 over 6 months... that is not a lot, but it is something... and maybe you could consider $250 over each of the first two months and then spread the remaining $500 out over the remaining 4 months.....

Don't take anything that I say as investment advice, just a bit of brainstorming in order that you may want to think about other possible ways of dividing up your investment and maybe getting a bit more stake in the game... but ultimately it is up to you and your budget and your financial situation and overall comfort level.

Thanks for the advice. I may do something along those lines, of DCAing a few bucks a day no matter what, and then throwing a couple hundred down if there's a big price drop on a particular day.

I'm convinced Bitcoin is beginning to hit the steep part of the exponential curve, and that it'll explode over the next few years, so front-loading my investment is probably a good idea. It's tough looking a few months back at when Bitcoin was trading at ~$250, but if prices progress over the next few years like I expect it'll be worth getting in even at ~$450.
12-31-2015 09:24 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2463
RE: The Bitcoin thread
The S&P 500 and Dow ended red for the year and the Nasdaq was up a little, while I beat all of them for the eighth year (out of nine).

Two of my most surprising "beats" of the year were the US Dollar (up from 90 at the beginning of the year) and bitcoin, which I was able to get multiple times at lows this year (even less than $200!). I did not expect those positions to perform as well as they did, I even thought that toward the end of the year, bitcoin would be falling if there was an interest rate increase, which would give me some time to buy more. The interest rate increase told me a lot about who uses bitcoin though, and if we see four of them this year, that will strengthen my theory. With BLC, I've grown my bitcoins as well.

The funniest part of this year was when oil dropped 30-40% and newbies piled in quickly, thinking it was going to rise again. The bear market in oil is doing exactly what it needs to and may continue. If GS' predictions about $20 oil are right, I will absolutely fall over laughing because there will be some buyers who get crushed.

Great 2015. Happy New Year and happy hunting in 2016!

Forgot http://www.coindesk.com/5-bitcoin-blockc...tch-2016/. A bitcoin eBay!
(This post was last modified: 01-01-2016 09:26 AM by SunW.)
01-01-2016 09:18 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2464
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-31-2015 09:24 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  
(12-28-2015 10:28 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  As SunW mentioned, I think that you are employing a similar method as I had been employing, since the beginning of my BTC investment. Surely, it sounds as if you have a lot of decent ideas already, and as you may have read earlier, I have never really gotten into private storage avenues, but it is not necessarily a bad idea and can be good in various ways to really store your coins privately and securely. One of the problems with long term solutions like those, though is that you do have to be responsible for remembering your access 5 or 10 years down the road, which could be a problem if you do not take some safeguarding methods.

Regarding low fees, circle is a pretty decent mechanism, but sometimes you may find other avenues with lower fees, for example sending funds to some exchange, and then once you buy the bitcoins, you can transfer them to where ever you like.

I think bitcoin is in a much better position as compared with when I got started, but when I got started, I first allocated $30 k for over 6 months, and then I reconsidered my investment at the end of that period, and allocated more at the end, and I kept investing for the past 2 years with reconsideration every few months about how to proceed.

Accordingly, you may want to consider for a bit further out. Of course, $5 per day can work, but you may want to consider some other lump sum methods.

So for example if you dedicated $150 for the month, then you may want to time it a bit better. Maybe divide the month into three? if you are at first not sure about the price movement, then you invest $50 and wait... then if the price drops you invest the other $50 and if it goes up you wait... and maybe it will come back down and you invest the last portion of the $50.

You could do both. Have one part of the money that you invest no matter what... $5 every other day, and then the other half of the investment fund, you attempt to be strategic about it and to invest on dips (dividing it how you like). Your budget is what it is, and if you feel comfortable with $150 a month, there are still a variety of ways to be strategic about it while you are building up your bitcoin holdings.

I personally, recall that I wanted to purposefully frontload my BTC investment, so I dedicated about 1/4 of my total 6month investment allocation towards the 1st month, and after that I spread the remaining over the remaining 5 months. Here it sounds as if you are working with a smaller amount than I was.. maybe $900 to $1000 over 6 months... that is not a lot, but it is something... and maybe you could consider $250 over each of the first two months and then spread the remaining $500 out over the remaining 4 months.....

Don't take anything that I say as investment advice, just a bit of brainstorming in order that you may want to think about other possible ways of dividing up your investment and maybe getting a bit more stake in the game... but ultimately it is up to you and your budget and your financial situation and overall comfort level.

Thanks for the advice. I may do something along those lines, of DCAing a few bucks a day no matter what, and then throwing a couple hundred down if there's a big price drop on a particular day.

I'm convinced Bitcoin is beginning to hit the steep part of the exponential curve, and that it'll explode over the next few years, so front-loading my investment is probably a good idea. It's tough looking a few months back at when Bitcoin was trading at ~$250, but if prices progress over the next few years like I expect it'll be worth getting in even at ~$450.

sounds very good, and you can likely reassess your situation to the extent needed.

Each of us need to find a balance that works for him, and if the price goes down people may call you dumb for investing, and if the price goes up, you may feel some resentment that you did not invest more... but in the end, you have to live with yourself and your choices and find your level.

Personally, in the beginning, I had thought that accumulating 30 coins would be my target and more than sufficient for my needs, but views can change based on the direction of the market and the reassessment of personal finances and/or stake. But having some stake is going to put you quite a bit ahead, and with some bitcoin naysayers, I suggest that they acquire just one coin and forget about it... but surely people can be skeptical and don't really want to invest before they are ready, which is understandable.
01-01-2016 04:55 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2465
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-01-2016 09:18 AM)SunW Wrote:  The S&P 500 and Dow ended red for the year and the Nasdaq was up a little, while I beat all of them for the eighth year (out of nine).

Two of my most surprising "beats" of the year were the US Dollar (up from 90 at the beginning of the year) and bitcoin, which I was able to get multiple times at lows this year (even less than $200!). I did not expect those positions to perform as well as they did, I even thought that toward the end of the year, bitcoin would be falling if there was an interest rate increase, which would give me some time to buy more. The interest rate increase told me a lot about who uses bitcoin though, and if we see four of them this year, that will strengthen my theory. With BLC, I've grown my bitcoins as well.


Well, it is a bit funny because bitcoin's performance really came at the very end of the year... and was explosive at that time.

The dollar has been doing pretty well for a couple of years, but I guess everyone kept thinking that the dollar was in a bubble and could not continue to appreciate... go figure.


(01-01-2016 09:18 AM)SunW Wrote:  The funniest part of this year was when oil dropped 30-40% and newbies piled in quickly, thinking it was going to rise again. The bear market in oil is doing exactly what it needs to and may continue. If GS' predictions about $20 oil are right, I will absolutely fall over laughing because there will be some buyers who get crushed.

Great 2015. Happy New Year and happy hunting in 2016!


I can definitely relate to this kind of phenomenon of continuing to double down, and I suppose the longer term the investment, the more likely that it will go back up.. but it is really difficult to get out of an investment that you have just doubled down on.







(01-01-2016 09:18 AM)SunW Wrote:  Forgot http://www.coindesk.com/5-bitcoin-blockc...tch-2016/. A bitcoin eBay!


Yep, those are all interesting businesses that innovate in the bitcoin space, and it is a bit unclear the extent to which each of them will survive or be imitated.
01-01-2016 05:08 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2466
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(12-31-2015 09:24 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  .......
I'm convinced Bitcoin is beginning to hit the steep part of the exponential curve, and that it'll explode over the next few years, .........


An exponential upside is definitely within the realms of possibilities.

So anyone who recognizes the probability should take a stake in bitcoin that more or less reflects his views about how likely such an exponential price upsurge could occur.


I am really not sure about where I would place such probabilities. I am not the most bullish about bitcoin, but I probably rank amongst the more bullish of folks.

At this time, I would approximate that there is a fairly decent chance of maybe about 25% of a 5x bubble from the current price point during 2016 and a 33% chance that such bubble would occur before the end of 2017.

In my view, some people who look at bitcoin attempt to categorize bitcoin too narrowly as if it were some traditional asset or company (but bitcoin is much more of a game changer, and it is not as centralized and unstable as some attempt to characterize it)..... but if a person categorizes bitcoin narrowly, then surely that person would not recognize much upside potential in its growth, and that seems to be the error of a lot of people who know little to nothing about bitcoin... and sometimes chime in on this thread to "tell us about their bitcoin predictions."


I mentioned my current view above regarding one potential upside upsurge either this year or next, but it is not outside of the realm of possibilities that bitcoin could again experience two 10x price surges in one year (similar as what happened in 2013).

Some people assert that a repetition of 2013 is not possible because the bitcoin scene is much different, and surely, maybe they are correct to the extent that they are asserting low probability, but they are likely incorrect when they are asserting arguments in absolutes because a lot of things are possible in bitcoinlandia, especially if we were to experience a number of big players pumping and even some degree of greater popularity and jumping on board of various regular people.

Maybe I would put a double bubble at less than 10% for 2016, but maybe at about 15% to include the next two years (until the end of 2017).

In that regard, a double bubble may look something like this. The first 10x price surge could be described as being from approximately $230 to $2,300, and the next 10x price surge could be from $1,500 to $15,000...


That scenario is not unrealistic given the infrastructure developments around bitcoin, and the computer security infrastructure (including hashrate/difficulty) seems well capable of currently handling a $15,000 price point, and if BTC prices were to go up the computing power infrastructure may well continue to be bolstered (as well as attacked), but to be able to secure $50k BTC prices and greater (which may be a bit further down the road (maybe 3-5 years).


Maybe you can review my probability predictions and determine that they are too high? instead of 15% you assess the probability is 1.5%, yet if you do assess any probability that it could happen, then you should have at least some small stake in bitcoin (maybe even .5 BTC to stock aside is better than nothing).
01-01-2016 05:42 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2467
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-01-2016 09:18 AM)SunW Wrote:  The S&P 500 and Dow ended red for the year and the Nasdaq was up a little, while I beat all of them for the eighth year (out of nine).

Two of my most surprising "beats" of the year were the US Dollar (up from 90 at the beginning of the year) and bitcoin, which I was able to get multiple times at lows this year (even less than $200!). I did not expect those positions to perform as well as they did, I even thought that toward the end of the year, bitcoin would be falling if there was an interest rate increase, which would give me some time to buy more. The interest rate increase told me a lot about who uses bitcoin though, and if we see four of them this year, that will strengthen my theory. With BLC, I've grown my bitcoins as well.

There may be some arbitrariness to using the calendar year as a measurement of performance, and sometimes performance may be a bit inaccurate as well, especially if the positions are still open and they are on paper as gains are losses, but have not been realized, yet.

Nonetheless, a lot of people make assessments based on the calendar year in part based on tax considerations.. and I suppose it could just be as good as any quasi-arbitrary time period for assessing the overall on paper performance package.

I have various index funds that are bundled into a kind of 401k, and the performance of my portfolio was as follows:

2012 - + 11.64%
2013 - + 21.27%
2014 - + 6.38%
2015 - - 0.93%



With BTC, there is overall market performance, and there is my personal on paper performance. I only got started in BTC for 1 month in 2013, so I was not involved at all in 2012, but I find the 2012 numbers fairly interesting as a contextual set up and a comparison to the on paper performance of my 401k investment.

I note that my personal performance in BTC is only a little bit better than the overall BTC market performance, but really I consider all of my time in BTC and my various investments, so far to be accumulation of BTC for a longer term, and as a hedge, as I had explained in some of my other posts.

Overall BTC performance
2012 - + 116.67%
2013 - + 5,669.23%
2014 - - 58.67%
2015 - +40.32 %


My BTC performance
2012 - not involved in BTC
2013 - - 2.78%
2014 - - 39.13%
2015 - + 52.15%

At the end of the year, my total BTC holdings are about 9.29 % in the red including various fees and BTC related expenses, and we will have to see how the rest of the year plays out At this point, I have quite a large sum in a trading fund to be able to continue to buy as prices go down and sell as prices go up, but my overall BTC portfolio does much better if the price goes up.

I am quite a bit more optimistic regarding my BTC holdings as compared with my 401k holdings, both long term and short term. Within my 401k holdings, I can trade around funds, and maybe it would be better to put the stock indexes in the government bonds category... but no matter what I do, it seems that the 401k portfolio is in a more precarious place as compared with the BTC portfolio.
01-01-2016 09:40 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2468
RE: The Bitcoin thread
[Image: 20160101_ABCT1_0.jpg]

Bitcoin vs. printed currencies. Which can Mr. Krugman use?

"Why is low inflation a problem? One answer is that it discourages borrowing and spending and encourages sitting on cash. Since our biggest economic problem is an overall lack of demand, falling inflation makes that problem worse." At the end of the day, capitalism (as Malthus admits in the image) doesn't lead to consumption. It is the Keynesian doctrine that wants consumption for the sake of demand.
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2016 08:24 AM by SunW.)
01-02-2016 08:20 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2469
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-02-2016 08:20 AM)SunW Wrote:  [http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/01/20160101_ABCT1_0.jpg[/img]

Bitcoin vs. printed currencies. Which can Mr. Krugman use?

"Why is low inflation a problem? One answer is that it discourages borrowing and spending and encourages sitting on cash. Since our biggest economic problem is an overall lack of demand, falling inflation makes that problem worse." At the end of the day, capitalism (as Malthus admits in the image) doesn't lead to consumption. It is the Keynesian doctrine that wants consumption for the sake of demand.

I understand that you (SunW) tend to frame your thinking with some of these macroeconomic considerations, yet the future adoption, expansion and implementations of bitcoin in a variety of jurisdictions or even globally and its likely expansion into various practical applications of the lives of people is likely going to be explained in a multitude of ways beyond the opposing Keynsian and Austrian visions of the world... and even those renditions in the image seem to fall quite short in describing a variety of dynamics in society to distinguish the impact of the behaviors of various actors whether governments, individuals or wealthy entities.

So, applying these concepts to bitcoin, I would like to hear some concrete explanations in your own words and attempt to figure out whether your renditions make any sense for predicting the future direction of bitcoin (in terms of its fundamentals and its history).
01-02-2016 07:14 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2470
RE: The Bitcoin thread
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

China halts markets and bitcoin soars. I love how many markets are down while bitcoin is giving all of them the middle finger.
01-07-2016 07:57 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2471
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2016 07:57 AM)SunW Wrote:  HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

China halts markets and bitcoin soars. I love how many markets are down while bitcoin is giving all of them the middle finger.


Yeah, it's pretty interesting... and over the past couple of years, some people probably became a bit confused about BTC and frequently were asserting that BTC is just some part of the stock market, etc, etc, etc.

Yes, the manipulative effectiveness actually likely threw off a lot of people considering bitcoin; however, now, bitcoin seems to be showing some of its very good and strongly ingrained hedging potential... and once the word gets out, we are likely going to witness even more of this dynamic in which bitcoin's price performance moves differently (and probably even opposite) from fiat dependent investments.

Probably, bitcoin's movement will more closely appear parallel to gold; however, one of the problems with gold is that there seems to have developed a considerable financialization and fakery of gold through paper instruments... accordingly , there could develop some differences between prices of real gold and paper gold.

A similar dynamic could occur with bitcoin to the extent that some leveraging seems to be occurring with some financial instruments and exchanges and even fractional reserve practices seems to be occurring with some of the bitcoin exchanges. Nonetheless, I still expect that bitcoin is going to perform better than gold and/or precious metals in the coming years and during these times of apparent financial turmoil. In that regard, there seem to be various people attempting to take corrective measures regarding various bitcoin shortfalls of fractional reserves, etc, but on the other hand, there seem to be few measures that are being taken regarding more longstanding paper financialization of gold and/or other precious metals.
01-07-2016 03:41 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2472
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2016 03:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Probably, bitcoin's movement will more closely appear parallel to gold; however, one of the problems with gold is that there seems to have developed a considerable financialization and fakery of gold through paper instruments... accordingly , there could develop some differences between prices of real gold and paper gold.

Yes, definitely. I think the ratio of paper gold to physical gold is over 100, or the last time I looked it was. That's frightening when you realize everyone doesn't own the gold they think they do.
01-10-2016 04:35 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #2473
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Kinda BTC related..

What if you want to spend some?

I have a " friend" that wants to buy a cabin in the mountains and this cabin is not finance able buy banks cause it's off the grid etc.

How could you get a loan with 50% down ?
01-10-2016 07:28 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2474
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-10-2016 07:28 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Kinda BTC related..

What if you want to spend some?

I have a " friend" that wants to buy a cabin in the mountains and this cabin is not finance able buy banks cause it's off the grid etc.

How could you get a loan with 50% down ?

Sounds like you are presenting a riddle, no?

So, I am not sure where you are going with the question, and it's potential relationship to bitcoin. Do you already know the answer?

Let's say for example, the cabin is worth $100K, and that is the price that the person is asking for it; however, no bank would finance it for more than $10k? Then you have to come up with the other $90k.

Or your example of 50% down, you have $50k, and you just need to get financing for $50k, but maybe the bank only is willing to loan $10k.

O.k. what is the next direction with the riddle? There are several ways this could go, no?

Anyone else has any ideas?
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2016 07:59 PM by JayJuanGee.)
01-10-2016 07:54 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #2475
RE: The Bitcoin thread
It's not a riddle who loans on off grid property with a huge downstroke?
01-10-2016 08:01 PM
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