Post: #1751

(06-09-2014 08:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ lol yes but they're where he wants it be so makes perfect sense.

I predict 691 as a high and I will sell all my shit cause I'm bored. Unless it goes past 800 then I will frantically buy back in.

I have NO problem with BTC predictions or projections or making plans about what to do regarding buying, selling or hodling, and I am guilty of making various kinds of predictions of BTC price direction(s) on a frequent basis and even changing my predictions based on ongoing BTC price movements.

On the other hand, i see no real purpose to assert the extent to which my prediction is correct, yet I know several guys have a tendency to make those kinds of proclamations.

Regarding UR plan to remove yourself from the BTC fun: you seem to be betting that there is NO real long-term security in BTC, and accordingly, you would prefer to put your fiat somewhere else or to spend it.

Your expectation(s) about the direction of BTC could be true; however, I am of the belief that BTC remains a fairly decent investment vehicle, in the whole scheme of possible investments.... and at the moment, I see NO real reason NOT to ride this bad boy for a couple more years - especially given the continued developments of the bitcoin space. I really do NOT recognize any meaningful downfall bitcoin, even though there has been manipulation and even though there has been a few troubling events in the past 6-7 months. I remain of the view that the positive potential outweighs the negative, yet if some better investment comes along, I would NOT be opposed to transferring some or all of my bitcoin investment into that better investment, so long as I recognize such.

Either one of us could be correct about the direction of BTC, yet I recall you stating several times, that you were more of the trading inclination regarding your BTC involvement, rather than a longer-term HODLER.

Really to me, it does NOT matter too much whether a guy chooses to play short-term or to bet long-term or which one of the guys is correct about the most prudent course of action regarding BTC investment(s) b/c either way, each of us is making a choice for himself about how to invest his money and/or time.

What's your timeline for the expected $691 and exit, within the next week or two? Actually, BTC has already been at that $691 price point on bitstamp recently, in the past couple of weeks; however, I imagine you are projecting BTC-e prices - for your exit price?

On the other hand, if you put your sell order in on BTC-e at $691 (or some price point of that range), then do you get BTC-e to send you your fiat, or do you have another means to convert from BTC into fiat or are you going to convert into some alternative crypto investment?

Post: #1752

(06-09-2014 09:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-09-2014 08:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ lol yes but they're where he wants it be so makes perfect sense.

I predict 691 as a high and I will sell all my shit cause I'm bored. Unless it goes past 800 then I will frantically buy back in.

I have NO problem with BTC predictions or projections or making plans about what to do regarding buying, selling or hodling, and I am guilty of making various kinds of predictions of BTC price direction(s) on a frequent basis and even changing my predictions based on ongoing BTC price movements.

On the other hand, i see no real purpose to assert the extent to which my prediction is correct, yet I know several guys have a tendency to make those kinds of proclamations.

Regarding UR plan to remove yourself from the BTC fun: you seem to be betting that there is NO real long-term security in BTC, and accordingly, you would prefer to put your fiat somewhere else or to spend it.

Your expectation(s) about the direction of BTC could be true; however, I am of the belief that BTC remains a fairly decent investment vehicle, in the whole scheme of possible investments.... and at the moment, I see NO real reason NOT to ride this bad boy for a couple more years - especially given the continued developments of the bitcoin space. I really do NOT recognize any meaningful downfall bitcoin, even though there has been manipulation and even though there has been a few troubling events in the past 6-7 months. I remain of the view that the positive potential outweighs the negative, yet if some better investment comes along, I would NOT be opposed to transferring some or all of my bitcoin investment into that better investment, so long as I recognize such.

Either one of us could be correct about the direction of BTC, yet I recall you stating several times, that you were more of the trading inclination regarding your BTC involvement, rather than a longer-term HODLER.

Really to me, it does NOT matter too much whether a guy chooses to play short-term or to bet long-term or which one of the guys is correct about the most prudent course of action regarding BTC investment(s) b/c either way, each of us is making a choice for himself about how to invest his money and/or time.

What's your timeline for the expected $691 and exit, within the next week or two? Actually, BTC has already been at that $691 price point on bitstamp recently, in the past couple of weeks; however, I imagine you are projecting BTC-e prices - for your exit price?

On the other hand, if you put your sell order in on BTC-e at $691 (or some price point of that range), then do you get BTC-e to send you your fiat, or do you have another means to convert from BTC into fiat or are you going to convert into some alternative crypto investment?

By the way, I am thinking that I will be rewarding myself with a RVF gold membership when BTC reaches $750-ish... Don't hold me to an exact number b/c if BTC prices are moving rapidly, then I may be engaging in some trading...

Personally, at this point, I am projecting that we may dabble in the $600 to $700 BTC price range for a few weeks and maybe up to a month, then BTC prices will go up to $750 to $850 for another month or two, and maybe even flash crash down into the $600s, and then will have our next bubble into the $3,000 to $5,000 arena, somewhere around or before mid-2015. Who knows for sure, but that is my current thinking about the direction of BTC prices based on recent BTC price performance and recent BTC news and developments.

Post: #1753

(06-09-2014 08:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To be more direct: This post (and your several other posts making similar assertions) makes nearly NO sense concerning a supposed predictive ability when it comes to BTC prices.

First of all I make no assertions to my predictive ability. Like everyone else I am just speculating as to the short term movement of the price. If we pool our collective insight we should be able to trade the movements better. You have a problem with this concept?

When it was 600 I predicted it would bump its head trying to break above 660 and bobble around the 660 mark for a little while.

That's exactly what it has done this week.

If someone were able to accurately tell me what BTC price is gonna do a even one week in advance I would appreciate it - not post an ego offended bitchy post.

Where it breaks from when this pattern of hovering around 660 end I really don't know but hey, if you get so ego offended by a correct prediction of short term behaviour then I guess you must be the real genius so over to you.

Post: #1754

(06-09-2014 09:51 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

(06-09-2014 08:05 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To be more direct: This post (and your several other posts making similar assertions) makes nearly NO sense concerning a supposed predictive ability when it comes to BTC prices.

First of all I make no assertions to my predictive ability. Like everyone else I am just speculating as to the short term movement of the price. If we pool our collective insight we should be able to trade the movements better. You have a problem with this concept?

When it was 600 I predicted it would bump its head trying to break above 660 and bobble around the 660 mark for a little while.

That's exactly what it has done this week.

If someone were able to accurately tell me what BTC price is gonna do a even one week in advance I would appreciate it - not post an ego offended bitchy post.

Where it breaks from when this pattern of hovering around 660 end I really don't know but hey, if you get so ego offended by a correct prediction of short term behaviour then I guess you must be the real genius so over to you.

I already said that I have NO problem with attempts to make BTC price predictions.

I believe that predictions and prognosticating and the sharing of information and speculation concerning the direction of BTC prices and/or related BTC infrastructure or even alternative crypto currencies can be very helpful for anyone reading or participating in this thread.

Your three or more posts regarding your getting right a BTC prediction or a set of predictions regarding a supposed $660 BTC gravitation point seemed to be quite another story... Maybe there really is some kind of $660 gravitation point, yet I do NOT see it, except for possibly some attempt at a self-fulfilling prophecy, nor do I see much of any added value in repeating several times that you predicted it?

As El Mech suggested, there could be some possible value contained in the post.... yet I remain puzzled, specifically about the value therein...

If other RVF members find utility in those about three posts of yours declaring your BTC price predictive powers, then who am I to question such appreciation that may exist among the membership?

Post: #1755

JJG did you buy your 30BTC already? You could put targets like if price drops to $590 $570 and $550 you'll buy 10BTC at each target... And also have some upper roof.. If price touches $700 you'll go all in straight away. What's your strategy?

Post: #1756

(06-11-2014 03:35 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  JJG did you buy your 30BTC already? You could put targets like if price drops to $590 $570 and $550 you'll buy 10BTC at each target... And also have some upper roof.. If price touches $700 you'll go all in straight away. What's your strategy?

I understand what you are saying, yet I lack some confidence that prices are going to get that low.. and I get anxious.


Over the last few days, I bought BTC in three increments in the $640s... of about 21BTC in total.

It seems that I have about $6,600 to $6,900 remaining in my BTC investment budget, until my next fiat comes in.

I have been getting the sense that BTC prices are dropping; however, I am a little afraid that BTC prices may NOT go into the $500s... Not sure... of course.

I also need to place my orders manually b/c I use Coinbase.

Maybe with this remaining $6,600 to $6,900 I can place orders in thirds... Maybe $2,200 in the $620s and then $2,200 in the $610s... and still have $2,200 in reserve in case BTC prices go lower....

Of course if I had some confidence that BTC prices were going to go lower, then I would wait for the lower price.

Whenever I get some extra fiat, I get a little anxious about having my holdings in fiat and missing the train. On the other hand, maybe some or all of my new fiat that will be coming in will reach me in the event that BTC prices go lower over the next 2-6 weeks.

Post: #1757

Prices dropping, do you think its the news that the US government is going to sell off their silk road coins?

Damn it, I just bought some at $650.

Post: #1758

(06-12-2014 04:58 PM)Bubbs Wrote:  Prices dropping, do you think its the news that the US government is going to sell off their silk road coins?

Damn it, I just bought some at $650.

Personally, I believe that prior to any news about silk road coins, there was already an inclination in the BTC market to readjust and to go flat for a while - maybe a month or so, and accordingly, there would NOT necessarily be anything unusual to have a downward readjustment in BTC prices, as well.

Also, personally, I believe you are o.k. at $650, yet buying some more BTC during the downswings can also bring down your average price per BTC.

Few of us would claim to know exactly to where BTC prices are going, yet to me it seems that the BTC market is currently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market.. and the transition can take a bit of time.. yet ultimately, within the next weeks or months, we are likely to witness a considerable appreciation in BTC prices in order to absorb the numerous investments into BTC including some of the wallstreet players who seem to be increasingly coming into the BTC space.

Post: #1759

$18 Million Worth of Silk Road Bitcoin to be Sold By US Government

http://www.coindesk.com/18-million-worth...overnment/

Post: #1760

Yeah, I already did that. I bought some at 420 and some at 450, 650 is the most I have paid and probably the last I will buy.

Post: #1761

(06-12-2014 06:05 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  $18 Million Worth of Silk Road Bitcoin to be Sold By US Government

http://www.coindesk.com/18-million-worth...overnment/

Thanks for that link. The information contained therein was much better than the previous reports that I had seen.

Personally, I do NOT see this as a bearish type problem.. even though the market may be reacting in a negative way.

In essence, 10 blocks of 3,000, and likely they are going to be purchased at or near market rate.

People tend to be fearful that the coins are going to go far below market rate, and then they will be dumped.. and that seems pretty unlikely, and even if they are dumped, 30,000 coins are NOT that much for the market to absorbed. However, on the other hand, if other seized coins go up for auction, as well, and if GOX coins also go onto the market, the combination of potential dumped coins could cause additional panic.. or at least panic potential....

I see news like this as an opportunity to get cheaper coins, so long as I do NOT run out of Fiat, which could certainly happen, since I get so excited to buy when the price is going down.

Post: #1762

(06-12-2014 06:14 PM)Bubbs Wrote:  Yeah, I already did that. I bought some at 420 and some at 450, 650 is the most I have paid and probably the last I will buy.

NEVER say NEVER... ..

But I understand what you are saying... I have been pretty intensely into bitcoin; however, my ongoing practice has been to allocate only a certain portion of my cash flow to increasing my BTC holdings.

Each of us is going to come to our conclusion at a different price point, concerning when we feel comfortable that enough is enough (in terms of how much of our total investment is in bitcoin(s) as compared with other investments that we may have).

Post: #1763

(06-12-2014 06:20 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-12-2014 06:05 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  $18 Million Worth of Silk Road Bitcoin to be Sold By US Government

http://www.coindesk.com/18-million-worth...overnment/

Thanks for that link. The information contained therein was much better than the previous reports that I had seen.

Personally, I do NOT see this as a bearish type problem.. even though the market may be reacting in a negative way.

In essence, 10 blocks of 3,000, and likely they are going to be purchased at or near market rate.

People tend to be fearful that the coins are going to go far below market rate, and then they will be dumped.. and that seems pretty unlikely, and even if they are dumped, 30,000 coins are NOT that much for the market to absorbed. However, on the other hand, if other seized coins go up for auction, as well, and if GOX coins also go onto the market, the combination of potential dumped coins could cause additional panic.. or at least panic potential....

I see news like this as an opportunity to get cheaper coins, so long as I do NOT run out of Fiat, which could certainly happen, since I get so excited to buy when the price is going down.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/...ion-worth/


Here's another article, and it describes the two categories of BTC that were seized by the US Govt from Ulbricht.

For some reason, the Govt is of the opinion that the 30K customer coins are ready for auction; however, the 144K Ulbricht personal coins are NOT yet ready.

It could be more devastating to BTC prices if both sets of coins were released at once. So, in that regard, I get the sense that the 30K coins is NOT too large of a quantity to release upon the market within the Fed Govt. auctioning procedures.

At today's prices:

30k = about $18 million
144k = about $86.4 million

Another irony, highlighted by the article, remains that the seized coins are worth about 6X their value upon seizure, at today's prices.

Post: #1764

I don't think Ulbrichts coins are in the hand of the feds. But please correct me if I'm wrong. Looking at the pic posted earlier in this thread a few red candles now is as it should be isn't it.

Post: #1765

(06-13-2014 12:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  I don't think Ulbrichts coins are in the hand of the feds. But please correct me if I'm wrong.

The Forbes article that I cited above refers to the feds having two stashes of coins from the Silk Road seizure. One stash is from customer accounts 30K coins, and the other stash is from Ulbricht's wallets, 144K coins. That is the same that I heard in earlier reports when he was initially arrested.

I have NOT really read up on the details, but his attorneys are making two kinds of arguments concerning the ownership of the coins, and whether the Feds have the right to liquidate the coins (to convert them into dollars).

(06-13-2014 12:34 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Looking at the pic posted earlier in this thread a few red candles now is as it should be isn't it.

I'm NOT sure which pic, you are referring to - but I'm thinking probably the graph that shows the long term series of bubbles on an upward trajectory?

And, yes, I believe we are in the ball park of being on track for a series of upward bubbles. Even though history may NOT repeat itself exactly, it sure does seem to rhyme... and a little more flatness in prices for a little while is o.k., as well... but ultimately, it seems that the BTC news has been pretty good over the past few months with more and more avenues to liquidate bitcoins and wallstreet seeming more and more inclined to come in to the bitcoin space... seems to rev us up for another bubble... which could be in one week or as late as a few months from now. ..

There could be some more dropping of coins on the market, or other negative news, but likely the glitches are NOT going to stop the next bubble.

I am kind of glad for this current delay... b/c I continue to have decent chunks of fiat arriving and projected for more to come.

Post: #1766

The feds dumping the silk road coins is good. It allows for big whales to join in. Second Market has been having problems getting early adopters to part with their coins for the BTC ETF they are creating.

Post: #1767

(06-13-2014 01:19 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  The feds dumping the silk road coins is good. It allows for big whales to join in. Second Market has been having problems getting early adopters to part with their coins for the BTC ETF they are creating.

I agree with you, completemente, regarding your first statement.

Do you have a source for your second statement? I would think that so long as Second Market has capital, it can buy as many coins as it likes - unless it is trying to bargain or strategize some kind of reduced rate for the coins that it is obtaining.

Post: #1768

(06-13-2014 01:27 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-13-2014 01:19 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  The feds dumping the silk road coins is good. It allows for big whales to join in. Second Market has been having problems getting early adopters to part with their coins for the BTC ETF they are creating.

I agree with you, completemente, regarding your first statement.

Do you have a source for your second statement? I would think that so long as Second Market has capital, it can buy as many coins as it likes - unless it is trying to bargain or strategize some kind of reduced rate for the coins that it is obtaining.

The thing is Second Market rather have lump sums of bitcoin associated with as few middle men/wallets as possible. Hence targeting early adopters. They can't buy the amount of btc the need with current volume on numerous exchanges without greatly affecting the price.

The statement regarding them having trouble convincing a few large early adopters from parting with their btc is just heresay

Post: #1769

Could this be the begining of the end for Bitcoin. . .

Quote:For the first time in Bitcoin's five-year history, a single entity has repeatedly provided more than half of the total computational power required to mine new digital coins, in some cases for sustained periods of time. It's an event that, if it persists, signals the end of the crypto currency's decentralized structure.

Quote:a single mining pool repeatedly contributed more than 51 percent of Bitcoin's total cryptographic hashing output for spans as long as 12 hours. The contributor was GHash, which bills itself as the "#1 Crypto & Bitcoin Mining Pool." During these periods, the GHash operators had unprecedented powers that circumvented the decentralization that is often held up as a salient advantage Bitcoin has over traditional currencies. So-called 51 percenters, for instance, have the ability to spend the same coins twice, reject competing miners' transactions, or extort higher fees from people with large holdings. Even worse, a malicious player with a majority holding could wage a denial-of-service attack against the entire Bitcoin network.

Quote:Undermines a core Bitcoin tenet that it be decentralized so it can't be controlled by a single entity.

"A 51 percenter can control which Bitcoin transactions happen," wrote Ittay Eyal, a post-doctorate researcher in Cornell's Department of Computer Science, in an e-mail to Ars. "It becomes a monopoly. It can set arbitrarily high transaction fees, for example, or even extort someone to allow them to perform transactions. It could block or delay all transactions but its own. One of Bitcoin's goals was to be a free system, independent of anyone's control. With small pools, no one has this kind of control. With a 51 percenter, there is."

Quote:Bitcoin's value proposition stems from its technological foundation, which in turn is based on building distributed trust. People flock to Bitcoin because they do not trust the fiat infrastructure, they hold Bitcoin because they are worried that the people in charge of USD can inflate it at will or usurp money from their accounts. But now, with a monopoly miner, they are suddenly in a position where they have to, once again, trust a single entity to remain benign.

This completely collapses the Bitcoin narrative that the Bitcoin community has been using to draw in new users.

source

Post: #1770

(06-16-2014 10:43 PM)bacon Wrote:  Could this be the begining of the end for Bitcoin. . .

I'm continuing to put my newly available money into bitcoin, so I am betting that bitcoin is NOT ending anytime soon... and in fact, I have the sense that we are on the verge of another upswing in prices, whether that be doubling, tripling or more. Possibly in a couple of weeks, we will begin to see more and more upside momentum in BTC prices.

I thought that the below linked article by Peter Diamantes provided a useful tool for looking at bitcoin the recent history and a projection of the near term direction that bitcoin is moving out of its deceptive phase and into its disruptive phase, which seems to be upward and continued adoption, which will likely mostly cause increasing upward price pressures upon it.. and those who hold it will likely be able to appreciate such upward price pressures.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments..._to_enter/

Post: #1771

Do you guys think the silk road coins will draw any media attention in the US and world wide?

Post: #1772

(06-25-2014 08:45 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Do you guys think the silk road coins will draw any media attention in the US and world wide?

YES!!! It already has with the US Marshalls announcement, and there have been various written articles and I even heard something on NPR a few days ago, and I am sure that there is quite a bit more press and continued press with this kind of event, with a govt sanctioned auction... WOW!!!!

Whether it causes an influx of BTC adopters, though, that may be another question.

This seems to be a great time to buy, and I have been letting several of my friends and family know. A few have asked me about it, but I have NOT received one report, yet, from any of them, that they actually set up a BTC wallet.... though there have been some seemingly increasing interest in the inquiries that causes me to believe that there may be some willing to pull the wallet set-up trigger in the near future.

Post: #1773

Can you use BTC to buy the coins at auction?

Post: #1774

(06-25-2014 08:59 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  Can you use BTC to buy the coins at auction?

Yeah right... cash out of the BTC first, and you need to put down a $200k assurance deposit to qualify for bidding and even if you do all of that, the US Govt (through the US Marshall Services) reserves the right NOT to allow your participation and to sell the coins to you (if it believes that you are NOT a qualified bidder).




Fairly stringent requirements to get involved directly with the auction, but also I believe that there are quite a few big names (from wallstreet, banks, individuals and BTC spheres) that have entered into the auction process.

There are 10 lots of about 3,000 BTC that are being auctioned, and I estimate that several of those lots will sell above market rate...

Still remains a mystery though concerning whether and how much of a premium the auctioned BTC will draw and how the whole situation will affect BTC prices up until tomorrow, on 6/26 (the day of the auction) and in the near thereafter.

The auction remains a fairly interesting event in the BTC sphere b/c it seems to be unprecedented... and breaking some new grounds.... and to see if the US govt screws this up?

Probably, El Mech you should sell some of your NMC, and then if you have NOT been using your bike, sell that, and sell your cutlass and join in on the BTC auction bandwagon fun, directly, once you have assembled $200K.

Well, there are other ways to accomplish such participation in the auction too, and maybe a lot of us involved in the forum are going to be more watchers rather than participants in the exclusive means to participate in some kind of way in this BTC auction.

Surely, I am in the BTC auction watcher category, and I have been continuing to hold BTC and buying BTC on what I perceive to be dips (which I do NOT always get right).

Post: #1775

(06-25-2014 09:37 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(06-25-2014 08:59 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  Can you use BTC to buy the coins at auction?

Yeah right... cash out of the BTC first, and you need to put down a $200k assurance deposit to qualify for bidding and even if you do all of that, the US Govt (through the US Marshall Services) reserves the right NOT to allow your participation and to sell the coins to you (if it believes that you are NOT a qualified bidder).




Fairly stringent requirements to get involved directly with the auction, but also I believe that there are quite a few big names (from wallstreet, banks, individuals and BTC spheres) that have entered into the auction process.

There are 10 lots of about 3,000 BTC that are being auctioned, and I estimate that several of those lots will sell above market rate...

Still remains a mystery though concerning whether and how much of a premium the auctioned BTC will draw and how the whole situation will affect BTC prices up until tomorrow, on 6/26 (the day of the auction) and in the near thereafter.

The auction remains a fairly interesting event in the BTC sphere b/c it seems to be unprecedented... and breaking some new grounds.... and to see if the US govt screws this up?

Probably, El Mech you should sell some of your NMC, and then if you have NOT been using your bike, sell that, and sell your cutlass and join in on the BTC auction bandwagon fun, directly, once you have assembled $200K.

Well, there are other ways to accomplish such participation in the auction too, and maybe a lot of us involved in the forum are going to be more watchers rather than participants in the exclusive means to participate in some kind of way in this BTC auction.

Surely, I am in the BTC auction watcher category, and I have been continuing to hold BTC and buying BTC on what I perceive to be dips (which I do NOT always get right).

Woops. I mistakenly remembered the auction to be 6/26; however, when I look at the NOTICE from the US Marshall services, I see that the auction is taking place on 6/27.

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

Additionally, registration for bidding closed on Monday, 6/23, so too late to get registered, if you have NOT already.

I do find it quite strange that the actual auction is on a Friday, but maybe the day of the week is NOT too significant - except for the way that it could affect action on exchanges. If there is NOT sufficient money on exchanges over the weekend, then usually people cannot get their money on the exchanges over the weekend; however, I would think that a large majority of bigger investors have already gotten their money on exchanges, to the extent that they judge such preparations to be necessary.