I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
2018/2019 Bear Market
Author Message
semibaron Offline
Chubby Chaser
**

Posts: 504
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 20
Post: #53
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market
(12-21-2018 12:35 AM)The Black Knight Wrote:  It should be a big, BIG warning to everyone that the largest economy in the world, which has had cheap debt (low interest rates/free money when accounting for inflation) for around a decade, can't handle a modest increase in interest rates without having a major panic attack.

The entire world economy has been propped up on cheap debt and there is gong to be a crash of epic proportions sometime in the near future.

Some major areas of concern:

1. Entire sectors like the tech sector for example, basically can't function without access to cheap debt. Anyone who has worked in tech can tell you about the many joke companies that still exist with tons of revenue but haven't been profitable for years. That bullshit can only last in a world with cheap debt. Silicon Valley culture has been drunk for long time on keeping alive non-sustainable business models. A reckoning is coming.

2. Emerging markets are having massive currency issues. What happens if they default due to weak currency/strong dollar? What happens to their ability to purchase exports?

Quote:Over $200 billion of USD-denominated bonds and loans issued by emerging market governments and companies will come due during the remainder of 2018, according to the Wall Street Journal. About $500 billion will come due in 2019. They will need to be paid off or refinanced.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4199297...arket-debt

3. The EU, fiscally speaking, is a disaster. It's a realistic possibility that Italy could pull the pin any day, leave the Euro to get control of their country back (they have not benefited at all from the Euro), and blow up the EU/Euro in the process. Politically, Hungary and other countries might quit the EU eventually after getting bullied and stripped of their EU power because they won't bend the knee to globalist migration bullshit. Shit, look at the whole Yellow Vest deal recently. The EU has an economy around the size of the USA and is hot and ready to pop from multiple directions.

4. Brexit? - Hard exit/soft exit? Who knows.

5. Muller investigation ending with bullshit charges and/or Democrat overt coup originating from the House? - Very real possibilities.

6. Entitlement spending in US federal/state/local governments is going to explode over the next decade as we hit Peak Baby Boomer. Federal SS/Medicare/Medicaid spending is 2 TRILLION dollars or thereabouts right now. Federal revenues are around 3.5 Trillion. And interest rates are going up = debt payment expenses are going to increase.

7. China Trade War - The largest economies in the world in a overt fiscal war is a real possibility.

8. China internal issues/housing/debt - 1 in 5 apartments/housing units in urban areas (need to double check the urban areas bit) in China are unoccupied and much of the populace holds their overall net worth in housing; including 2nd and 3rd properties. The gov't has been propping up the housing market to keep the house of cards together. What happens if China has their own version of a housing related financial crisis?

This is just a sampling of how many fucked up things are floating around out there in the the overall world economies right now that could trigger a major economic crash. We honestly need a hard reset back down to reality, one that should have occurred in 2008-2009 (which was postponed), but I'd be wary of being invested in the market right now.

I feel like if you buy now, you're basically buying right before the financial 2008 crisis or the dot com crash. Sure, you could make some gains but why not just wait it out a bit longer and catch the amazing bargain prices when the REAL freaking out starts.


Great analysis.

The only point I disagree is that you shouldn't invest now. We are living in a very globalised world, in which financial crisis can spread fast.

Imagine one of your points raised above, for example the implosion of the EU, happens, then this will by itself trigger many other effects. Maybe Japan with ~250% debt to GDP and an ageing population will implode next. By then a lot of smaller countries would collapse as well, finally reaching your own country of residence.

In such a worst case scenario, the majority companies will run some sort of emergency plan (laying of employees, reducing factory output) or even go straight into bankruptcy. I highly doubt, that national currencies like the Japanese Yen or the US Dollar will be worth anything in such a scenario. More likely we would face civil war.

Therefore, take the chance and invest now. Because if we are going to run into a crash, it is going to be the biggest one the world has ever seen and by then I worry about my security and how to secure food rather than some $$$.
12-23-2018 04:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Messages In This Thread
2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 12-20-2018, 02:22 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 12-20-2018, 02:29 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Caduceus - 12-20-2018, 02:30 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Flux - 12-20-2018, 02:33 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - DamienCasanova - 12-20-2018, 02:47 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - nek - 12-20-2018, 11:52 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-25-2018, 08:32 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - LINUX - 12-20-2018, 02:51 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - NoMoreTO - 12-21-2018, 12:32 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-20-2018, 03:23 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-20-2018, 07:55 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Mr. Accuride - 12-20-2018, 09:12 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-25-2018, 08:38 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - TheFinalEpic - 12-20-2018, 09:27 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - nek - 12-20-2018, 11:49 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - TheFinalEpic - 12-21-2018, 12:08 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - redpillage - 12-23-2018, 01:05 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Shinebox - 12-21-2018, 12:16 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - NoMoreTO - 12-21-2018, 12:35 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-25-2018, 08:39 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - nek - 12-21-2018, 01:06 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - semibaron - 12-23-2018 04:19 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 12-23-2018, 11:43 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Glaucon - 12-21-2018, 06:51 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - IveBeenFramed - 12-21-2018, 07:26 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Salesian - 12-21-2018, 01:22 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-21-2018, 01:33 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 12-21-2018, 01:45 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-21-2018, 01:51 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Rotten - 12-21-2018, 02:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-21-2018, 02:48 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Shemp - 12-21-2018, 03:19 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-21-2018, 03:24 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - redpillage - 12-23-2018, 01:12 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-26-2018, 09:38 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 12-21-2018, 03:31 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - RDF - 12-22-2018, 03:15 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 12-23-2018, 12:58 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-25-2018, 08:58 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Troller - 12-26-2018, 11:09 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 08:02 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 08:16 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Troller - 12-27-2018, 05:25 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-27-2018, 07:17 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Thomas Jackson - 12-22-2018, 06:45 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - void - 12-22-2018, 09:02 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - fantome - 12-22-2018, 11:54 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - fantome - 12-23-2018, 05:59 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - fantome - 12-23-2018, 05:21 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Foolsgo1d - 12-23-2018, 03:24 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - RatInTheWoods - 12-23-2018, 06:29 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - edlefou - 12-23-2018, 11:18 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Shinebox - 12-23-2018, 02:53 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 12-23-2018, 03:49 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - edlefou - 12-24-2018, 08:22 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - MrLemon - 12-24-2018, 05:42 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-24-2018, 05:46 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - edlefou - 12-25-2018, 11:36 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-25-2018, 12:27 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Que enspastic - 12-23-2018, 01:18 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Shemp - 12-23-2018, 04:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - bobmjilica - 12-24-2018, 05:37 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Lithuanian10 - 12-24-2018, 05:48 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - kamoz - 12-24-2018, 06:37 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-24-2018, 08:55 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-26-2018, 09:59 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 01-03-2019, 05:25 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-26-2018, 04:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-26-2018, 05:36 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 08:08 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-26-2018, 08:14 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 08:59 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Neo - 12-26-2018, 08:23 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Swordfish1010 - 12-26-2018, 09:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 10:33 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Swordfish1010 - 12-26-2018, 09:12 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-26-2018, 09:26 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Swordfish1010 - 12-26-2018, 09:34 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 10:29 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-26-2018, 09:39 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Jetset - 12-26-2018, 10:34 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-26-2018, 10:46 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - spaceman - 12-28-2018, 08:59 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 12-26-2018, 10:49 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-27-2018, 09:25 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-27-2018, 11:11 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-28-2018, 10:11 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-28-2018, 10:23 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-29-2018, 10:42 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 11:11 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-29-2018, 11:16 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 12:14 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-27-2018, 07:47 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Lampwick - 01-27-2019, 11:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 12-27-2018, 11:04 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-27-2018, 11:06 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-28-2018, 10:28 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 11:04 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-27-2018, 09:09 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - jeffreyjerpp - 12-27-2018, 09:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-27-2018, 09:25 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-27-2018, 09:32 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-27-2018, 09:29 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-27-2018, 09:38 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-28-2018, 10:03 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-28-2018, 10:17 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-28-2018, 11:28 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 12-29-2018, 10:29 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Bikal - 12-29-2018, 12:49 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 01:04 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-29-2018, 01:47 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-29-2018, 01:51 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 03:17 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 03:40 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 12-29-2018, 01:53 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-03-2019, 10:47 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 01-03-2019, 11:55 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-04-2019, 08:48 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 01-04-2019, 09:52 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 01-26-2019, 10:06 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-29-2018, 03:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-29-2018, 05:23 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - BaatumMania - 12-29-2018, 03:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-29-2018, 05:45 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 12-29-2018, 05:48 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-29-2018, 05:52 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-29-2018, 05:44 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 12-29-2018, 05:53 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 12-29-2018, 06:05 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Johnnyvee - 12-29-2018, 06:27 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-01-2019, 12:47 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 01-03-2019, 05:14 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-03-2019, 07:52 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-01-2019, 09:55 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - JayR - 01-02-2019, 02:00 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - demolition - 01-04-2019, 01:59 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-03-2019, 10:43 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Father - 01-04-2019, 06:02 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 01-04-2019, 02:05 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 01-04-2019, 12:05 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-04-2019, 08:35 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 01-05-2019, 02:25 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 01-05-2019, 03:42 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-06-2019, 12:52 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - BostonBMW - 01-06-2019, 10:36 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - jeffreyjerpp - 01-11-2019, 10:34 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-11-2019, 07:10 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-09-2019, 10:32 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Bushido - 01-10-2019, 12:36 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Deepdiver - 01-11-2019, 08:00 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - jeffreyjerpp - 01-11-2019, 10:47 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - hipster - 01-11-2019, 12:13 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-11-2019, 10:03 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-17-2019, 02:48 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-25-2019, 12:20 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-25-2019, 07:19 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-27-2019, 08:12 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Swordfish1010 - 01-26-2019, 04:02 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - jeffreyjerpp - 01-18-2019, 03:17 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 01-26-2019, 04:29 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-24-2019, 11:19 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-25-2019, 10:53 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-26-2019, 06:20 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Repo - 01-26-2019, 03:33 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Repo - 01-25-2019, 10:56 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 01-27-2019, 08:14 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - SamuelBRoberts - 01-28-2019, 12:13 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Lampwick - 01-28-2019, 01:36 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Lampwick - 01-28-2019, 02:09 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Lampwick - 01-28-2019, 02:50 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - BB1 - 01-30-2019, 04:50 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - The Beast1 - 01-30-2019, 05:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-30-2019, 09:05 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 01-31-2019, 12:05 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - robreke - 01-31-2019, 08:55 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - NoMoreTO - 01-31-2019, 12:35 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 01-31-2019, 09:46 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 02-01-2019, 12:01 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - gework - 02-05-2019, 02:00 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 02-07-2019, 10:59 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Bushido - 02-08-2019, 12:49 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 02-12-2019, 08:11 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 02-26-2019, 02:58 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - BetaNoMore - 02-26-2019, 04:10 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 02-27-2019, 12:06 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 02-28-2019, 11:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 03-07-2019, 11:18 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Troller - 02-27-2019, 05:57 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 02-28-2019, 11:25 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - void - 03-01-2019, 12:34 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - gework - 03-05-2019, 02:21 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Repo - 03-05-2019, 11:37 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 03-07-2019, 11:40 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 03-08-2019, 05:08 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 03-09-2019, 06:01 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - godzilla - 03-09-2019, 06:34 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 03-10-2019, 06:58 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Genghis Khan - 03-10-2019, 08:53 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Jaydublin - 03-10-2019, 10:18 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Genghis Khan - 03-10-2019, 12:16 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 03-11-2019, 09:58 AM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 03-21-2019, 01:44 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - jeffreyjerpp - 03-28-2019, 12:56 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Genghis Khan - 03-29-2019, 11:23 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 04-02-2019, 09:41 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - BetaNoMore - 04-03-2019, 06:46 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Arado - 05-29-2019, 03:53 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - MrLemon - 05-29-2019, 07:02 PM
RE: 2018/2019 Bear Market - Kid Twist - 05-29-2019, 10:46 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
Information My 2019 tour through the United States Roosh 235 29,560 Yesterday 02:15 PM
Last Post: budoslavic
  Ross Perot, 1930-2019 puckerman 15 1,532 07-14-2019 12:59 PM
Last Post: puckerman
  2019 California earthquakes Roosh 30 3,572 07-10-2019 03:30 AM
Last Post: fiasco360

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication