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Argentina's 46% Stock Crash
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash
(08-13-2019 12:56 PM)NoMoreTO Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 12:49 PM)BBinger Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 12:37 PM)NoMoreTO Wrote:  A friend and I had an idea, to take down a bunch of US cash, get it changed at the street level. Then bring back a huge chunk of the Argentinian Pesos (Acquired at lower price) to US, and change back at the posted level.

Dangerous idea. Depends on Argentina having the foreign currency reserves to enforce the illusion of an inflated rate on pesos on international markets. Even if it worked in the past, probably not happening in the future.

So the risk is you try to change your Argentinian Pesos back to USD in US and its a "no-go". Wow.

Still it would all be within a short period of time (1 month vacation) so if you checked if there were reserves before you left that would mitigate your risk.

Consider the degree of divestment from Argentina that happened yesterday. Everytime I walked during business hours so far, the buy sell spread of Pesos Argentinos on the rate board of the local cambios widened and dropped (Here in Uruguay there's a cambio on just about every other street corner). Right now on their website Cambio Matriz is advertising a buy/sell spread of 0.45/0.90 for Pesos Argentinos denominated in Pesos Uruguayos.

That spread is insanely wide, because nobody outside of Argentina wants Pesos Argentinos. Argentina isn't some far away land where a wide spread could excused by citing non-existent volume. Argentina's a short boat ride from Montevideo.

The way to arbitrage Argentina's ongoing failure is dollars in, anything of value out. Of course, this is contingent on there being anything of value left to take out. This could be a challenge, because Argentina doesn't produce much of value. At the local Tienda Inglesa (local walmart like chain), products from Argentina are limited to the regional version of some western snack foods, and pesticides. Cookware, and anything else requiring advanced industry comes from Brasil, Europe, or Asia. The most industrially sophisticated new products imported from Argentina to Uruguay are cheap motorcycles made in India then assembled in Argentina.

Go to have fun and stretch you dollars, but don't count on being able to make a profit.
08-13-2019 01:18 PM
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Messages In This Thread
Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - Shifty - 08-12-2019, 10:45 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - LoveBug - 08-13-2019, 12:10 AM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - NoMoreTO - 08-13-2019, 12:37 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - BBinger - 08-13-2019, 12:49 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - NoMoreTO - 08-13-2019, 12:56 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - BBinger - 08-13-2019 01:18 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - NoMoreTO - 08-13-2019, 02:08 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - perros - 08-13-2019, 08:47 AM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - BBinger - 08-13-2019, 12:21 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - Arado - 08-13-2019, 08:02 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - BBinger - 08-13-2019, 09:13 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - djk100 - 08-13-2019, 08:18 PM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - Mekorig - 08-14-2019, 10:01 AM
RE: Argentina's 46% Stock Crash - BBinger - 08-14-2019, 12:11 PM

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