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To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog
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ZayanZaken Offline
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Posts: 47
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Post: #109
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog
(06-17-2011 10:32 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  
(06-17-2011 10:03 AM)Mystik Wrote:  http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read...sexual-sex
http://www.virusmyth.com/aids/index/drasnick.htm

I generally agree with the article on Straight Dope. The chances of spreading HIV between 2 heteros having normal sex who are in the low risk category is so small it's not worth making a big deal about. However, this 1 in 5 million number is based on a single incidence. Meaning if you had sex once in your life with a low risk woman without a condom, you'll have a 1 in 5 million chance of getting HIV. However with each incidence of sex and with more partners, that number drops dramatically. That's why damn near a third of some southern African countries are HIV positive. A lot of people fucking like rabbits and nobody using rubbers. Do the math.

I did not read the article but I will use the number you quote--1 in 5 million--and do the math for you. (I teach these things for a living, by the way.) Given that there is a risk of 1/5000000, the chance you'll not catch it is 4999999/5000000. Now suppose you have a new sexmate every single day so you take the risk 365 times a year. Raise 4999999/5000000 to the power of 365 and you get 0.999927, indicating that your chances of catching it are 0.0073% per year. Do that for 50 years (and I trust you agree that you are not likely to score a chick a day for 50 years!), and you get a 99.64% chance of staying HIV free.

Disclaimer: the 1/5000000 figure is highly suspect, and it does not take a huge daily risk to make the 99.64% figure look VERY optimistic.

Me personally? I wrapped it to protect myself for one ONS whom perhaps I should not have fucked at all--she was crazy and on medication--and one other woman whom I thought might be too high a risk because I could not estimate how many guys she might have had. She was Vietnamese, by the way, and I did not yet have experience with them. She did not look like a slut at all, but I did not trust my judgement on that because of lack of experience and because I did pick her up with little difficulty. I took her to be tested and found that she was a carrier of hepatitis! That, guys, is one of the real worries! Much more likely to be transmitted from female to male during vaginal sex. The doctor told me, however, that even though I got an unprotected BJ from her I did not have anything to worry about. (And since I got tested at the same time, I knew I was clean.) I then got immunized for hep and took a few more BJs from the girl, but nothing else, wrapped or not.
07-07-2014 07:23 PM
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Messages In This Thread
To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Tuthmosis - 06-15-2011, 04:45 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - MrPink - 06-15-2011, 05:01 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jariel - 06-15-2011, 05:32 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Kickb - 06-15-2011, 05:37 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - CJ - 06-16-2011, 10:35 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Paideia - 06-15-2011, 07:40 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jariel - 06-15-2011, 08:25 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - skulled - 06-16-2011, 12:47 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - tjuan - 06-16-2011, 12:12 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Kaizen - 06-16-2011, 12:20 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Pete - 06-16-2011, 10:28 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Gmac - 06-16-2011, 04:01 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - CJ - 06-16-2011, 11:12 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Roosh - 06-16-2011, 04:39 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Gmac - 06-16-2011, 05:58 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jariel - 06-16-2011, 06:15 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Samseau - 06-17-2011, 09:42 AM
Some obvious points - gds555 - 06-16-2011, 09:30 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - CupCake - 06-16-2011, 09:44 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - pitt - 06-17-2011, 08:16 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Mystik - 06-17-2011, 10:03 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - ZayanZaken - 07-07-2014 07:23 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Roosh - 06-17-2011, 10:40 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Riker - 06-17-2011, 12:47 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Neo - 06-17-2011, 05:14 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Gmac - 06-19-2011, 09:01 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Kickb - 06-19-2011, 09:18 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Roosh - 06-19-2011, 12:44 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Gringo - 06-19-2011, 01:01 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Pete - 06-19-2011, 08:58 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Samseau - 11-05-2012, 05:27 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jammer - 11-05-2012, 12:39 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Rick91 - 11-05-2012, 12:44 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jammer - 11-05-2012, 03:31 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Rick91 - 11-05-2012, 03:51 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - fresh - 11-06-2012, 08:44 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - R Smoov - 11-08-2012, 12:44 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Swooper - 11-09-2012, 04:24 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Samseau - 11-09-2012, 08:19 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - NoBalls - 11-14-2012, 04:55 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Matt3B - 11-14-2012, 09:46 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - void - 07-07-2014, 10:51 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - kosko - 08-09-2018, 12:00 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Rikardo - 07-08-2014, 02:49 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - asdfk - 08-12-2018, 08:32 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Fortis - 08-12-2018, 10:08 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Roardog - 08-14-2018, 12:46 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - stefpdt - 08-14-2018, 07:30 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Garden - 08-15-2018, 04:20 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Incubus - 08-15-2018, 08:08 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Roardog - 08-15-2018, 10:25 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Incubus - 08-15-2018, 11:32 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Cold - 08-21-2018, 06:57 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - placer - 08-21-2018, 06:20 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jacknap - 08-21-2018, 01:47 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jacknap - 08-21-2018, 10:06 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - placer - 09-11-2018, 10:22 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - SeaFM - 09-11-2018, 08:03 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - topdog - 09-11-2018, 03:03 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - masta - 09-29-2018, 03:46 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Luther - 09-29-2018, 10:35 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jacknap - 11-01-2018, 11:12 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - jacknap - 11-01-2018, 01:30 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Barney - 11-10-2018, 12:37 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - trio - 12-04-2018, 10:32 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - trio - 12-05-2018, 11:28 AM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - trio - 12-05-2018, 01:20 PM
RE: To Raw-Dog or Not to Raw-Dog - Akwesi - 12-05-2018, 05:10 PM

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