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Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
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Rush87 Offline
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017
(08-22-2017 12:28 AM)rungoodinc Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 12:24 AM)Rush87 Wrote:  
(08-22-2017 12:06 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  No there aren't. This is the best bet I've seen in 7 years as a pro.

Arrogance in betting is the best way to lose your money. A good bet has less assumptions about variables. To say this is a great bet, especially when you have to outlay a grand just to win $270, is making a lot of assumptions.

Floyd will probably win, but you can make $270 without a.) Making a bunch of assumptions on something with no precedent and b.) Risking such a large sum of money on said assumptions.

It all comes down to the math. Floyd needs about an 82% chance of winning the fight for the bet to be profitable (-430 right now). If you think his chance is more than 82%, it's a good bet, if you think it's less, it's not.

I'm not a boxing fan but a lot of people have been talking as if Floyd has at least a 90% if not greater chance so I think it's probably the right bet and by a good margin.

There's too many intangibles for my liking. The fight game is a funny thing. Floyd is almost 41. He's fighting for money. This will be just the second time he's been at a reach disadvantage [First was De La Hoya]. Conor will be the longest reach he's faced. He's giving up 11 years in age and 20lb's in weight.

On top of this, Conor is awkward, but more importantly, he's experienced. Much more so than the MSM have covered [Specifically because they don't understand MMA]. He has been boxing since he was 12. Six years longer than Jeff Horn who just beat Pacman. As an MMA fighter, he does pure boxing training almost every day.

Once again, Floyd should win, but we are assuming Conor is as inexperienced as the MSM say [Which is false], we are assuming Floyd is training to the same level as his past camps [Likely false], that Floyd is the same fighter he was 2 years ago [Likely false].

Further, there is no precedent. We can assume Conor's distance and style won't work in a boxing ring, but unlike every other boxing fight, there is zero to suggest this other than our own assumptions, and irrespective of how accurate they might be, it's still pure speculation.

In contrast, this weekend we have dozens of football [Rugby games] where we have over 20 weeks of form to work off, paying far higher than the 1.27 Floyd's paying to win. Outside of making the fight a little more entertaining, there is no reason to bet on it.
(This post was last modified: 08-22-2017 12:53 AM by Rush87.)
08-22-2017 12:48 AM
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RE: Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor is August 26th 2017 - Rush87 - 08-22-2017 12:48 AM

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