I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Author Message
Isaac Jordan Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 799
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 95
Post: #2501
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-22-2016 12:04 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  It's possible that I could have been wrong with my assessment of $351 as the bottom in the most recent downward run (correction), because currently, we seem to be experiencing a pretty strong additional downward price movement and pressure for more downward movement...

In other words, I get surprised a lot in bitcoinlandia, even though I attempt to put my money where my mouth is, to the best of my ability (and even though I give quite a few details of my investment strategies, I may not say exactly what I am going to do before I do it)...

I'm inclined to agree with your estimate of ~$350 as a new bottom. Maybe $300 if the mainstream media gets a hold of some particularly bad news, like the Hearn letter from a few days ago. But I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin never goes that low again.

The Gartner Hype Cycle describes the visibility and adoption of a new technology over time:

Quote:1. Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.

2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most don't.

3. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.

4. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious.

5. Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.

Let's compare the Hype Cycle to bitcoin's progress thus far:

Hype Cycle:

[Image: Hype-Cycle.png]

Bitcoin price in USD, 2009-present:

[Image: chart?safe=off&biw=1536&...jwS477KwDA]

2009: Bitcoin is invented (Technology Trigger)

2013: From what I understand, the giant spike in November wasn't authentic, organic growth, but occurred instead due to malicious bot purchases that took advantage of Mt. Gox's lax security measures in order to drive up the price. Nevertheless, it served the purpose of massively inflating expectations for a technology that, at the time, still wasn't ready for mainstream adoption. (Peak of Inflated Expectations)

2014-Oct 2015: Because bitcoin was never truly valued at $1100, the price quickly dropped, slowed only perhaps by an influx of new users lured in by the promise of quick, easy wealth. Once folks realized bitcoin wasn't going to solve all the world's problems overnight, the price dropped even further, and stayed that way for the better part of two years. (Trough of Disillusionment)

Oct 2015-present: Once the doom & gloom wore off and the technology proved its staying power (as can be seen by the recent proliferation of bitcoin startups and investments), things began to pick up again. I'm guessing we'll continue to see a gradual rise in price as bitcoin continues on its path towards mainstream adoption. (Slope of Enlightenment)

I doubt it will be a smooth transition out of the Trough, for a variety of reasons (general economic malaise, warring factions within the bitcoin community, pushback from central banks/governments looking to control the currency, etc.). However, neither do I think the Slope will be as small as it is pictured in the Cycle above. I think bitcoin is an exponential technology, and its growth will only compound on itself as more people buy-in to the idea and begin using the currency.

While I'm hoping for a few more downward swings in order to grab some cheap coins, I'm not going to sweat too much if I end up averaging ~$400/coin. With a long-term (> 5 years) mindset, it won't matter if I miss out on a twenty bucks difference, as bitcoin prices should be into four figures by then. I'd (cautiously) encourage others to continue investing, even as newcomers to the scene lament missing out on $200 bitcoin by mere months. In the long run, you'll still be glad you got in before the Slope started to really pick up steam.

Then again, I could easily be painting targets around my arrows. Only time will tell.
01-22-2016 10:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Isaac Jordan's post:
robreke
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2502
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-22-2016 10:08 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  ....
Hype Cycle:

[http://newmr.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Hype-Cycle.png[/img]

Bitcoin price in USD, 2009-present:

[Image: chart?safe=off&biw=1536&...jwS477KwDA]

2009: Bitcoin is invented (Technology Trigger)

2013: From what I understand, the giant spike in November wasn't authentic, organic growth, but occurred instead due to malicious bot purchases that took advantage of Mt. Gox's lax security measures in order to drive up the price. Nevertheless, it served the purpose of massively inflating expectations for a technology that, at the time, still wasn't ready for mainstream adoption. (Peak of Inflated Expectations)

2014-Oct 2015: Because bitcoin was never truly valued at $1100, the price quickly dropped, slowed only perhaps by an influx of new users lured in by the promise of quick, easy wealth. Once folks realized bitcoin wasn't going to solve all the world's problems overnight, the price dropped even further, and stayed that way for the better part of two years. (Trough of Disillusionment)

Oct 2015-present: Once the doom & gloom wore off and the technology proved its staying power (as can be seen by the recent proliferation of bitcoin startups and investments), things began to pick up again. I'm guessing we'll continue to see a gradual rise in price as bitcoin continues on its path towards mainstream adoption. (Slope of Enlightenment)

I doubt it will be a smooth transition out of the Trough, for a variety of reasons (general economic malaise, warring factions within the bitcoin community, pushback from central banks/governments looking to control the currency, etc.). However, neither do I think the Slope will be as small as it is pictured in the Cycle above. I think bitcoin is an exponential technology, and its growth will only compound on itself as more people buy-in to the idea and begin using the currency.

While I'm hoping for a few more downward swings in order to grab some cheap coins, I'm not going to sweat too much if I end up averaging ~$400/coin. With a long-term (> 5 years) mindset, it won't matter if I miss out on a twenty bucks difference, as bitcoin prices should be into four figures by then. I'd (cautiously) encourage others to continue investing, even as newcomers to the scene lament missing out on $200 bitcoin by mere months. In the long run, you'll still be glad you got in before the Slope started to really pick up steam.

Then again, I could easily be painting targets around my arrows. Only time will tell.


I believe that each of us who look into bitcoin develop theories regarding its history and/or price direction based on various information that help us to understand it better and which cause us to project our assessment of its future value and risks.

Of course, I don't disagree with your overall conclusion that bitcoin seems to be a great investment with considerable upside potential (and maybe even i am expecting higher upside potential than you, since you seem to be referring to $1,000 as an extremely high price - which it really does not seem to be), and really, I don't disagree overall with your historical outline; however, there are parts of your historical outline that I view to be glossing over a variety of underlying bitcoin dynamics, and thus my view is a bit different.

Yes, the extent to which the price rises in 2013 of nearly 100x was in part hype and/or pumping of bitcoin, and in retrospect, the infrastructure and base was not ready to support such price increases. I really don't buy some of the Gox bot explanations, but that may be another story.

In any event, in reality, BTC prices did not really drop back down to anywhere near pre-bubble levels... whether we start out with $2 to $6 prices in 2012 or $10 prices in early 2013, overall BTC prices have not dropped below $200 in any meaningful way since 2013... yes there were a few downward (and short lived) spikes below $200, but those were not sustained for any meaningful period beyond a few days in total.

Anyhow, part of my point is that the investment into BTC is currently much more solid than you seem to be crediting it with (especially in the past couple of years)... and the value of bitcoin pertains in part to its market cap, and liquidation and stability utility that comes with a larger market cap.... $4-6 billion and even $15 billion (which was about its 2013 peak value) is small potatoes in regards to the utility and paradigm shifting nature of bitcoin.... and really, the current numbers of computers and mining farms dedicated to bitcoin mining (and also by design security) would fairly easily support a BTC price beyond $10k.

Yes, we are getting a lot of infighting in recent times, and a lot of emphasis on the internal factions, which is causing downward price pressures, and could cause additional downward price pressures.

in the past couple of years, BTC prices have seemed to have been disproportionately controlled by exchanges, and not broader ways of establishing price. Whether this is the proper way for bitcoin or not, it remains true that you do not need a large number of coins to manipulate prices (relatively speaking). Surely, none of us small potatoes have control over prices, but any relatively wealthy person with less than $100 million could wield a lot of influence over bitcoin prices (at least for short term periods, and maybe even longer periods), if chosen to do so.. and if strategically employing such capital.

Accordingly, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that BTC prices could be driven back into the $200s and even with dips below $200; however, I am pretty confident that the broader and broader adoption of bitcoin in a large number of parts of the world, including bigger and bigger players investing into bitcoin with the purpose of expecting price appreciation is going to cause more and more difficulties for downward manipulators to be able to get ahold of coins and to be successful in their attempts at downward manipulation into the $200s or below.

In sum, both of us conclude that BTC price trend seems to continue in an upward direction, even during these apparently ongoing contentious times.
01-23-2016 03:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2503
RE: The Bitcoin thread
By the way, Isaac, have you continued to buy BTC on a regular basis in the past month or so.. and then also attempted to time dips to some extent?

I understand creating an accumulation theory and a buying plan and then attempting to stick with those can be pressure filled.. and challenging and there can be lots of pressures for reconsideration when prices seem to be so volatile... and the btc news is so prolific.. and even disparate with various macro-economic considerations, as well..
01-23-2016 04:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Isaac Jordan Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 799
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 95
Post: #2504
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-23-2016 04:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  By the way, Isaac, have you continued to buy BTC on a regular basis in the past month or so.. and then also attempted to time dips to some extent?

I have. Started on the first of the year with Circle, figured I'd buy ~$50 a day and dollar cost average my way in. I didn't mind that they limited me to $300/week; from what I read online it takes about 4-6 weeks for their internal algorithm to bump up regular users to the $3k/week threshold. In the meantime, at least I can purchase and transfer coins for free.

But then BTC took that 10% dive last week after the Hearn letter, and having already hit my weekly Circle limit I started a Coinbase account and bought a few coins at $360. Worth it even with the 1% fee.

I've been alternating between the two lately, buying a little on Circle every day to try and encourage the algorithm to increase my limit, and then buying full coins off Coinbase whenever there's a dip below $375 (my current average purchase per coin). I'm looking into the somewhat arduous process of setting up my own "cold" wallet soon, and I'll be transferring my funds to it every couple of weeks to hedge against any hackers/issues within the exchanges.

I agree with you that bitcoin's upside is much, much larger than its downside (worst case scenario my coins are worth nothing, best case it doubles multiple times). I'd rather buy a few coins now and then feel bad if it drops down to $200 temporarily, rather than wait for the "right" price only to watch it go up, up, up.

I'm up to 10 BTC right now, and I'd like to triple that over the next few months. Just trying to get a feel for how volatile things are, and if there might be a few more solid dips to take advantage of before I'm fully invested.
01-23-2016 05:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2505
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-23-2016 05:05 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  
(01-23-2016 04:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  By the way, Isaac, have you continued to buy BTC on a regular basis in the past month or so.. and then also attempted to time dips to some extent?

I have. Started on the first of the year with Circle, figured I'd buy ~$50 a day and dollar cost average my way in. I didn't mind that they limited me to $300/week; from what I read online it takes about 4-6 weeks for their internal algorithm to bump up regular users to the $3k/week threshold. In the meantime, at least I can purchase and transfer coins for free.

But then BTC took that 10% dive last week after the Hearn letter, and having already hit my weekly Circle limit I started a Coinbase account and bought a few coins at $360. Worth it even with the 1% fee.

I've been alternating between the two lately, buying a little on Circle every day to try and encourage the algorithm to increase my limit, and then buying full coins off Coinbase whenever there's a dip below $375 (my current average purchase per coin). I'm looking into the somewhat arduous process of setting up my own "cold" wallet soon, and I'll be transferring my funds to it every couple of weeks to hedge against any hackers/issues within the exchanges.

I agree with you that bitcoin's upside is much, much larger than its downside (worst case scenario my coins are worth nothing, best case it doubles multiple times). I'd rather buy a few coins now and then feel bad if it drops down to $200 temporarily, rather than wait for the "right" price only to watch it go up, up, up.

I'm up to 10 BTC right now, and I'd like to triple that over the next few months. Just trying to get a feel for how volatile things are, and if there might be a few more solid dips to take advantage of before I'm fully invested.


Even though you and I phrase things in a bit different ways, your thinking seems very similar to mine as to when I was beginning to accumulate BTC.. .and of course, when I started, the price dynamics were different; however, like you, I still had a goal to accumulate a certain quantity of coins....


In that regard, like you said, you do not want to pay more for your coins than necessary, but you want to have stake in the BTC game, in case there's an upward bump (or pump) that does not return the prices back down.

Currently, Circle does seem to be the better value, as compared with Coinbase, but Coinbase's buy limits are higher. I do currently have $3k per week on Circle, and it is best to link your debit card directly to Circle to get faster processing times (and that may also increase your limits).

I also created an account on Uphold, which allows you to get coins at about same price as the BitStamp price (Even though Circle does not have fees, Circle is about 1% or more above stamp, depending on bitcoin price fluctuation activities.. but still a bit cheaper than Coinbase on most occasions.. and coinbase has the obvious fee while circle just has a higher price that works for either buying or selling).

In the past few months, Uphold just began to allow free transfers of dollars from US bank accounts, and in the past couple of months I have been sending dollars to them to get coins cheaper.. you can send the dollars and have those dollars available on the Uphold account to buy (or convert) on price dips.

I also convert various chosen quantities of BTC at various times on Uphold for free, which is really the same concept as trading.

My thinking regarding trading (or selling) mostly changed in mid 2015 once BTC prices started returning upwards; however, probably, I could have begun to trade a bit earlier than that ... but really, I felt a considerable disincentive to sell any coins while BTC price were mostly going down through most of 2014 and half of 2015 and during that time, I also felt that I was still accumulating coins... even though I ran out of money at various times in early 2015 to keep accumulating.

I may be repeating myself a little bit; however, I got both my mom and my girlfriend employing some of my trading tactics, using Uphold. Neither one really listens to me and each of them can be a bit stubborn from time to time, but in essence, let's say hypothetically that you have accumulated 20 bitcoins.....

If you have accumulated 20 BTC, then each time BTC prices go up by $1, you have $20 of profit on paper. I personally set my trade authorizations in either $5 or $10 price increments, depending on the speed of the BTC price changes and whether I believe that the price is going to change directions.

Frequently, there can be more than a $20 gap in my next buy or sell price.... so in that regard, if you were to have 20 BTC and bitcoin prices go up $10, then you have $200 profits, and maybe you could feel comfortable selling up to 30% of those profits ($67) in order to prepare to buy back at a lower price.

More or less, I am doing something like this to trade with up to 30% of the profits with higher quantities of bitcoin being allocated for sale as the price goes higher...and my comfort level of how much I am willing to sell goes up as the price goes up.. but no matter what it stays within boundaries.

With my current trading method, I continue to accumulate more coins and to bring down my average price per BTC... while really only selling a small percentage (maybe less than 1% or cumulatively less than 10%) of my coins at any one time.

Hopefully, that information is not too repetitive.
01-23-2016 07:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Isaac Jordan Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 799
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 95
Post: #2506
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-23-2016 07:45 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Even though you and I phrase things in a bit different ways, your thinking seems very similar to mine as to when I was beginning to accumulate BTC.

It does. Please keep posting your updates, as having a like-minded investor sharing his thoughts on something as revolutionary as bitcoin has been incredibly helpful.

The only major difference I see in our strategies is that I'm not so interested in active trading as I am simply buying and holding for the long term. I'm doing so mostly for tax purposes, as from what I understand (at least here in the U.S.), any short-term profits are taxed on top of regular income, whereas anything sold after holding for a year only gets hit with a capital gains tax.

I also imagine it would get rather tedious keeping track of each and every trade for tax reporting purposes. But again, I'm rather new to this so I remain flexible. I may set aside a thousand dollars or so worth of "gambling funds" using the strategy you described, of essentially only "betting" with your winnings, and keeping your principle protected.
01-23-2016 09:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2507
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-23-2016 09:09 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  
(01-23-2016 07:45 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Even though you and I phrase things in a bit different ways, your thinking seems very similar to mine as to when I was beginning to accumulate BTC.

It does. Please keep posting your updates, as having a like-minded investor sharing his thoughts on something as revolutionary as bitcoin has been incredibly helpful.

The only major difference I see in our strategies is that I'm not so interested in active trading as I am simply buying and holding for the long term. I'm doing so mostly for tax purposes, as from what I understand (at least here in the U.S.), any short-term profits are taxed on top of regular income, whereas anything sold after holding for a year only gets hit with a capital gains tax.

I also imagine it would get rather tedious keeping track of each and every trade for tax reporting purposes. But again, I'm rather new to this so I remain flexible. I may set aside a thousand dollars or so worth of "gambling funds" using the strategy you described, of essentially only "betting" with your winnings, and keeping your principle protected.


You are largely correct about the tax consequences being capital gains rate for holdings over a year and regular income tax for less than a year.

Surely, I am not holding myself out as any tax consultant; however, there can be some ambiguity as to when you have realized a gain for tax purposes. Therefore, when the money is converted on an exchange, such as uphold, those are not short term gains because they have not yet been realized with profits.


Accordingly, you can put money into an exchange and trade it around, and it does not trigger any tax consequences until you cash it out... so you could double or triple your BTC and/or cash holdings before you cash out and bring down your BTC basis... and if you thereafter cash out, then you calculate the basis and your gains based on those cashed out amounts (but not every trade and while you are trading only the amount in and the amount out).

So, let's say initially, you put in $4,000 to buy 10BTC at an average of $400 per BTC, however over the years, you trade them back and forth and hold them in dollars and BTC and in the end, you have 20BTC. You have still only put in the $4,000, so your average per BTC has become $200, and if you cash out, you would count those coins as having a basis of $200 per BTC.


Of course, it would be a bit more complicated than that if over the years you send a multitude of dollars transactions to the exchange, yet in the end, you add up the total dollars that you sent to the exchange, and divide the total of your btc holdings and get the average at the time that you cash out (assuming more than 1 year) and then you would pay capital gains on that amount, to the extent that you are cashing out in a way that needs to be reported.

Even though I trade, and I am planning on reporting certain aspects of my trades, in the end, I am not planning to cash out or to show any gain because of cash outs because I am putting all of the money back in that I cash out within a fairly short time of transferring money around.

Of course, if my circumstances change, and I feel that I need to completely cash out some of my holdings, then I would take the average price per BTC by adding all the value of my amount put into BTC and use that average as the basis at the time that I cash out.

On the other hand, there may be some ways in which you can cash out of your BTC in out-of-jurisdiction locations (such as overseas travel) that could cause your gains on your BTC to not be taxable by the USA govt.

As I mentioned, I was in no way interested in BTC trading at all during my phase of accumulation.. however, after accumulating more than I had anticipated, my interest turned to trading because I recognized it as a likely way to preserve my capital better, with the ongoing BTC price volatility. I understand that in the beginning (while accumulating), you may be less concerned about trading ideas because you are still in the fairly early stages of building up your BTC holdings into a decent sized stash.. which I was there too.. but after a while, I went quite a bit beyond my initial target comfort level in which I felt sufficiently cushioned with an adequate stash of BTC (which I probably reached in about the late 2014 period) in the event that prices were to shoot up I would feel sufficiently invested in BTC to profit from that kind of speculative occurrence.

Even though I have continued to accumulate after late 2014... I have nonetheless felt that my BTC stash was at a pretty decent level, and I was not so bothered about whether or not I would be accumulating more BTC... as long as I keep a foundational level of BTC that I have flexibly set in my own mind and projected over various price levels that I have to make sure that I keep a certain level of my BTC stash at certain price points, even while I sell some of my BTC... which really relates to ideas that I got by reading various ideas in the below-linked thread:



This thread is about having a cashing out plan...... ... preserving a certain level of BTC while cashing out at various points.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0
01-23-2016 09:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes JayJuanGee's post:
Isaac Jordan
SunW Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 8
Post: #2508
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Milo on bitcoin. Interesting explanation of the Hearn incident.
01-25-2016 07:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes SunW's post:
JayJuanGee
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2509
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-25-2016 07:42 PM)SunW Wrote:  Milo on bitcoin. Interesting explanation of the Hearn incident.


Yep.. I generally like this article, and it puts some perspective on the various seemingly emergency attempts at pushing for bigger blocks... and that those attempts to make an emergency in pushing for bigger blocks are likely ways to cripple/undermine decentralized aspect of bitcoin in various respects.

Regarding the author's initial classification of bitcoin as a currency, recently, I have been becoming a bit irked with those kinds of comments to classify bitcoin as a currency.

Surely, he is very bullish and positive about the real paradigm changing peer to peer aspects of bitcoin, and so he does not imply anything negative in his assertion that bitcoin is serving as a kind of currency.

I would suggest that even though bitcoin has some currency attributes, it remains way too new in size and familiarity and infrastructure to really compete in any kind of meaningful way like any kind of regular currency..

It remains way too small to really fit the currency definition, so the term is a bit too imprecise in my thinking, yet, it seems that years from now, if bitcoin continues to expand, bitcoin could become a very real contender in various currency circles.. and surely become a paradigm shifting form of currency, and surely that is one of the perceived threats of bitcoin and that is something that seems somewhat unstoppable about bitcoin and worthy for some legacy institutions to consider bitcoin to potentially undermine some of their current ways of generating profits.
01-25-2016 09:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2510
RE: The Bitcoin thread
In the below-linked YouTube clip (which is 11 minutes), Trace Mayer discusses - Seven bitcoin network effects, which is certainly an ongoing building up of various aspects of bitcoin that are making bitcoin a very strong and ongoing phenomenon that has considerable future potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPQP8axBU60

The seven network effects:
1) Speculators (betting on the price)
2) Merchants (selling items for bitcoins)
3) Consumers (buying items with bitcoins)
4) Miners (bitcoin security with an amazing amount of computer power)
5) Developers (specifically software developers)
6) Financialization (seems to be like more sophisticated forms of speculation through wallstreet instruments)
7) Currency (Specifically world reserve settlement currency)

I think that partly, Trace’s discussion of the 7th network effect of “world reserve currency” relates to my earlier points regarding this currency point. So in this regard, the concept of currency seems to have several levels of meaning, and if people attempt to put too much emphasis on the currency aspect of bitcoin, when currency seems to be a further down the road process (especially, if we are talking about world reserve currency).
01-26-2016 02:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2511
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I don't really want to encourage too much posting about alts, here in this thread; however, sometimes holding BTC can really provide considerable opportunities to trade some of the alts which a large number of BTC enthusiasts have recognized as pump and dumps - relative to BTC - even though sometimes people accuse BTC, also, of being a pump and dump.


and wow, some of the dynamics!!!!

and wow, sometimes BTC's own price performance can relate to some of the alts because frequently people are moving in and out of a large number of the various alts by holding btc.. and if an alt goes up a lot and then down and has quite a bit of volume, you can almost surely bet that some of the getting in and out and transferring of wealth was achieved through some form of BTC (even if kind of behind the scenes).

That was an amazing 24 hour move for Doge (over 100% for the 24 hours and nearly 200% for the week), and if you don't have insider information, there can be quite a bit of luck in timing those kinds of trading attempts as well...

Surely, having an overall sense of the price movement for a few of the alt markets, could really increase a better's odds of getting lucky in making such an alt trade, too.... so, I admit that playing those kinds of grand moves on alts would probably not be 100% luck, but they can have really decent payoffs if you get in and out of the alts with decent timing.

Some of those alts, are crazy too, in terms of figuring out where the fuck to trade them?.... is the exchange safe? what kind of fees are there? and how do you juggle which of the alts to trade?

The Crypsy crash was largely related to a lot of alt tradings, but yeah, we also heard about some of those guys from Crypsy supposedly running off with the ballpark of about 13k BTC.

Interesting moves for Ethereum too in the past week with 100% profits and passing up litecoin and then ripple in terms of market cap and then now coming back down, and maybe ETH going to crash hard, but who the fuck knows with these smaller alt markets with smaller market caps?
(This post was last modified: 01-27-2016 04:57 AM by JayJuanGee.)
01-27-2016 04:52 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2512
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Well, considering the past couple of weeks of bitcoin's performance in light of the past couple of months.

About two weeks ago, we experienced a considerable drop in BTC price in light of the piling on of FUD surrounding the Mike Hearn article (and other simultaneous exaggerated FUD) that caused a precipitous drop from the $430's price arena to a peak low of $352.

Thereafter, I had considered that a fairly decent volume pump of BTC passed $410 would bring us into a kind of safe-zone regarding whether we would go below $352 again. The subsequent pump over $420 from a bit over a week ago did not end up being as long-lasting as I had considered it to be, and so, yep, we came back down to the upper $300s, and we experienced some half-assed further attempts to bring BTC prices below $360, or lower if possible, yet it remains unclear if bears were throwing all of their ammunition into the battle or if they may be running out of coins to dump?

In any event, we are not exactly free from another test of $352 because certainly in the past 4 days or so BTC prices have been moving up and down and within striking distance of another test of $352.


Anyhow, I would not put it passed the bears to be able to come up with a sufficient number of more coins for dumping into the challenge of driving down BTC prices; however, it is beginning to appear that we are floating in a BTC price territory (mostly $374 to $379) long enough (a couple of days) in order that we could witness another attempt at a break out in either direction within the next two days (ending the weekend and maybe awaiting some Monday financial news - stocks were up around 2.5% on Friday, but doesn't mean such uptrend in stock prices will continue).

I am fairly certain that we are going to see some BTC price actions within the next couple of days..

To me the first bounce by 5% or so from our current price range could go either direction.. almost a toss (50/50), and I am thinking that the next bounce of at least 10% from our current price territory, is more favorably on the upside...

I will give the 10% bounce to have a 57% chance for upside and 43% chance for the downside... but, like a large number of us who are not whales, I am formulating my best guestimation regarding this short-term BTC price movement matter.
01-31-2016 03:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes JayJuanGee's post:
Isaac Jordan
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2513
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Hey SunW:

I LOL'ed a little bit at your post in the gold / silver membership thread - linked below for ease of reference.



https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-32112...pid1211168


I would have responded to your post over there; however, since the forum is under state of war (state of emergency rules), I did not want to make any posts that are directly requesting any changes of the forum (maybe until after the emergency rules are no longer in effect) - and probably Roosh reads that thread frequently.

The reason for my LOL is a bit of speculation on my behalf.

You realize that initially, Roosh was accepting Bitcoin for gold lifetime memberships, but he did not accept for very long and I am not really sure about when he stopped accepting bitcoin and for what reason. Maybe volatility, maybe the cumbersome nature of his having to interact one on one to confirm payment, or maybe some other reason(s)?

Since Roosh stopped taking bitcoin, and he thereafter did not provide any explanation as to the reason why (at least not to my knowledge), it seems like accepting Dash would be even more problematic for him, for some of the reasons that I stated above.

Yes, there could be some goals for Roosh to allow some degree of anonymity for users; however, in the end maybe some of the burdens on him would be greater than experimenting with Dash, for example.

Maybe if Roosh (or anyone else) does not respond to your above post by Sunday or Monday (when the emergency rules are likely to go out of effect), then I may venture a response in that thread that would be similar in content to this response.. including any subsequent adjustments in my thinking that may take place between now and then. razz.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2016 02:18 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-04-2016 02:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
SunW Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 8
Post: #2514
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Yeah, it's a long shot, I'll admit; it does open the door to being able to contribute to Neomasculine ideas without anyone ever being able to prove anyone is donating.
02-04-2016 03:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2515
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-04-2016 03:38 PM)SunW Wrote:  Yeah, it's a long shot, I'll admit; it does open the door to being able to contribute to Neomasculine ideas without anyone ever being able to prove anyone is donating.


Surely, what you say is an advantage of such; however, administratively, there could be some other issues including ones that i describe in my earlier posts that make it more difficult to administer and maybe stressful, in terms of potential unexpected volatility.

I can imagine guys timing their transactions based on volatility, and then it becomes a bit irritated, because they buy the membership during an upswing in prices that reverses, and by the time Roosh notices the transaction or has time to get to it, the price has dropped 10% or more... It can become a bit more irritating with a bunch of small transactions (as compared with a larger transaction that you may feel inclined to manage more closely).

I certainly would appreciate, at some point, hearing a bit more about Roosh's experiences with bitcoin, and why he decided to discontinue receipt of it.

You know that several guys have also proposed creating an RVF coin (I think even recently in this thread - was that you? ).... anyhow, yes, that would be interested for the technical minded and the innovative type people who want to experiment with these new payment (and asset creation) mechanisms, yet surely Roosh has several other priorities (and also he may feel neither knowledgeable enough, or able to trust someone with such likely experimental innovations - even given potential regulatory risk or other risks that are unknown at this time with various kinds of currency/assets "innovations.")
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2016 03:58 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-04-2016 03:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
SunW Offline
Woodpecker
**

Posts: 483
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 8
Post: #2516
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Yes, all of your points are valid because swings do occur with cryptos in general and people can try to "time" their memberships. I'm thinking more of the privacy angle for those who want to protect theirs, but it's a valid point to say that the swings make it difficult to accept it.
02-04-2016 04:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2517
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-04-2016 04:36 PM)SunW Wrote:  Yes, all of your points are valid because swings do occur with cryptos in general and people can try to "time" their memberships. I'm thinking more of the privacy angle for those who want to protect theirs, but it's a valid point to say that the swings make it difficult to accept it.


Some of us are kind of hobbyists in these new world innovations... Currently, I would put myself into that camp, in regards to bitcoin, and some of us are interested in a variety of other crypto innovations, as well, including the many different developments in the various alt coins space.

Once we kind of begin to feel that we have a handle on it, and we are even inclined to spend some additional time and energy experimenting and trying things out, in order to learn more about it, but really, regular people (even if they may otherwise be innovative) may not want to spend considerable time developing or monitoring these various systems, while they are still in considerable flux.

Probably in about the past year (maybe a bit longer than a year), I have spent a bit more time attempting to convince acquaintances to look into or to become interested in various aspects of bitcoin, and it is really hard, sometimes, to get their attention regarding the subject matter (and they may even falsely believe that I am trying to sell them something).

Really, though, I have found that I have been extending myself out in a variety of ways in the bitcoin space, and those kinds of extensions cause me to want to become more involved in other technical ways (beyond my previous intent regarding some of the technicalities of the bitcoin space).

We will see how these various coins develop, whether bitcoin and other alts, and surely, I am getting back to my earlier talking point regarding market cap being a very important factor in terms of allowing for more stability and confidence.. probably less manipulation of price based on such... and bitcoin has the various alts more than 20x beat in this regard, and probably more than 1000x beat in terms of overall security of the network in terms of computing power.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2016 05:46 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-04-2016 05:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2518
RE: The Bitcoin thread
A couple of days ago, I was quite nervous that BTC prices were going to retest $350.. The downward price movement of about $10 was fairly rapid and on fairly low volume.


Surely, such retest of $350 could still happen within the next few days (because the price is quite closely within striking distance of such a potential retest).

On the other hand, such a retest is not inevitable, so it seems best to prepare your BTC portfolio for price movements in either direction.

I don't really buy into some of the assertions that give any significant attribution to the Chinese exchanges in directly impacting and moving BTC prices; however, there could be some indirect effects with their volume and trading and possibly even some stagnation in BTC price movements in the coming week or so (due to the Chinese new years observation that seems to be taking place this week and the likely decrease in trade volume and decreased ability for the Chinese to move fiat around in the coming week - because they close a lot of the banks during the chinese new years observation period).

It's kind of a guess.

Currently, I am probably a little more inclined to predicting a 5% downward movement rather than a 5% upward movement.

On the other hand, if the price movement is 10% or more, at this time, I am a bit more inclined to believing that 10% adjustment from where we are at would be upward rather than downward.

All of this in spite of the ongoing scaling debate.



Below is my current staggering of my money:

More or less, if BTC prices go below the described price points, I intend to buy, approximately:


$349.00 1.00286533 $350.00
$354.00 0.98870056 $350.00
$359.00 0.97493036 $350.00
$364.00 0.96153846 $350.00
$369.00 0.40650407 $150.00
$371.50 0.40376851 $150.00



More or less, if BTC prices go above the described price points, I intend to sell, approximately:

$379.00 0.395778364 $150.00
$382.00 0.523560209 $200.00
$387.00 0.645994832 $250.00
$392.00 0.637755102 $250.00
$398.00 0.628140704 $250.00
$403.00 0.620347395 $250.00
$408.00 0.980392157 $400.00
02-07-2016 05:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Isaac Jordan Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 799
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 95
Post: #2519
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Just opened the Circle app on my phone to find that my purchase limits have been upgraded from $300/week to $3k/week. It took 5 weeks from signing up and requesting an increase (I did both on the same day) to actually having the limits raised.

I had purchased ~$25 worth each day for the first few weeks, then switched to Coinbase when the price dropped after the Heard letter was released. I hadn't used Circle much at all the last two weeks, so I'm not sure what lead the algorithm to bump me up.

Regardless, I'd advise anyone in the US who's interested in purchasing bitcoin to go ahead and open an account, request the increase, and make a few purchases, so that should you want to buy larger amounts in the near future you can take advantage of Circle's lack of fees.
02-10-2016 12:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2520
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-10-2016 12:52 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Just opened the Circle app on my phone to find that my purchase limits have been upgraded from $300/week to $3k/week. It took 5 weeks from signing up and requesting an increase (I did both on the same day) to actually having the limits raised.

I had purchased ~$25 worth each day for the first few weeks, then switched to Coinbase when the price dropped after the Heard letter was released. I hadn't used Circle much at all the last two weeks, so I'm not sure what lead the algorithm to bump me up.

Regardless, I'd advise anyone in the US who's interested in purchasing bitcoin to go ahead and open an account, request the increase, and make a few purchases, so that should you want to buy larger amounts in the near future you can take advantage of Circle's lack of fees.


I agree that both circle and coinbase are fairly inexpensive ways to accumulate coins, especially if you do not mind having your bank info linked to an exchange and to your acquisition of coins (which so far, I have also been o.k. with that).

It's good to hear your recent experiences because from time the procedures and the timelines may change with these various exchanges.

Regarding increasing your Circle limit, I am not sure whether making a request for an increase in your limit had much if any effect - because I think what happens is that Circle increases your limits after 30 days or so (so long as you do all of the identification verifications and the bank and card linkings), probably whether you use the account or not, and the same seems to be true with Coinbase....

They start you at a lower limit and then increase the limit, but the limits are different on each of them, and ways to get instant access is different as well.

Regarding price, frequently, I like to compare prices before I purchase, and you are correct that many of the times Circle is cheaper than Coinbase because you add up the fees in order to determine actual costs per coin. However, sometimes I check specifics, and depending on trade volume, the prices may be cheaper on Coinbase.

For example, yesterday, I had received a payment for nearly $300 on Coinbase from another Coinbase user, and I verified that the exchange rate was about $372.91, yet the Circle rate was a couple of dollars higher. The price was fluctuating a bit at the time with a bit of trending towards $375-ish on Stamp. I then went through the motions of getting the total price on each of them, as if I were going to buy 1 bitcoin, and Coinbase was about $2 cheaper than Circle.

I have found that there are some ways to play these various exchange rate differences when sending and receiving money and also sometimes moving money between exchanges, so long as you continue to keep money on each. So for example, you may lock in a profit by doing a simultaneous buy and sell when there is a considerable difference between two of them (which can happen more when the prices are very volatile), but to safely engage in this practice and exposing yourself to less time-processing risk, it is good to have a cushion of both fiat and dollars in various places.
02-10-2016 02:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2521
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-10-2016 02:31 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(02-10-2016 12:52 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Just opened the Circle app on my phone to find that my purchase limits have been upgraded from $300/week to $3k/week. It took 5 weeks from signing up and requesting an increase (I did both on the same day) to actually having the limits raised.

I had purchased ~$25 worth each day for the first few weeks, then switched to Coinbase when the price dropped after the Heard letter was released. I hadn't used Circle much at all the last two weeks, so I'm not sure what lead the algorithm to bump me up.

Regardless, I'd advise anyone in the US who's interested in purchasing bitcoin to go ahead and open an account, request the increase, and make a few purchases, so that should you want to buy larger amounts in the near future you can take advantage of Circle's lack of fees.


I agree that both circle and coinbase are fairly inexpensive ways to accumulate coins, especially if you do not mind having your bank info linked to an exchange and to your acquisition of coins (which so far, I have also been o.k. with that).

It's good to hear your recent experiences because from time the procedures and the timelines may change with these various exchanges.

Regarding increasing your Circle limit, I am not sure whether making a request for an increase in your limit had much if any effect - because I think what happens is that Circle increases your limits after 30 days or so (so long as you do all of the identification verifications and the bank and card linkings), probably whether you use the account or not, and the same seems to be true with Coinbase....

They start you at a lower limit and then increase the limit, but the limits are different on each of them, and ways to get instant access is different as well.

Regarding price, frequently, I like to compare prices before I purchase, and you are correct that many of the times Circle is cheaper than Coinbase because you add up the fees in order to determine actual costs per coin. However, sometimes I check specifics, and depending on trade volume, the prices may be cheaper on Coinbase.

For example, yesterday, I had received a payment for nearly $300 on Coinbase from another Coinbase user, and I verified that the exchange rate was about $372.91, yet the Circle rate was a couple of dollars higher. The price was fluctuating a bit at the time with a bit of trending towards $375-ish on Stamp. I then went through the motions of getting the total price on each of them, as if I were going to buy 1 bitcoin, and Coinbase was about $2 cheaper than Circle.

I have found that there are some ways to play these various exchange rate differences when sending and receiving money and also sometimes moving money between exchanges, so long as you continue to keep money on each. So for example, you may lock in a profit by doing a simultaneous buy and sell when there is a considerable difference between two of them (which can happen more when the prices are very volatile), but to safely engage in this practice and exposing yourself to less time-processing risk, it is good to have a cushion of both fiat and dollars in various places.



I am just looking at Coinbase, Circle and Bitstamp again, and certainly, it can be good to bring down your costs by checking the prices at the time of your transaction.

Currently, as I type, buying a bitcoin would be this price:

BitStamp $379.40
Coinbase: $375 + fee = $378.74
Circle: $382.60

Selling is another story, and Circle will give you the best sales price out of the three.. because Coinbase ends up being $371.26 and Circle's sales price is the same as the purchase price ($382.60).
02-11-2016 01:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Isaac Jordan Offline
Kingfisher
***
Gold Member

Posts: 799
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 95
Post: #2522
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-11-2016 01:35 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I am just looking at Coinbase, Circle and Bitstamp again, and certainly, it can be good to bring down your costs by checking the prices at the time of your transaction.

Currently, as I type, buying a bitcoin would be this price:

BitStamp $379.40
Coinbase: $375 + fee = $378.74
Circle: $382.60

Selling is another story, and Circle will give you the best sales price out of the three.. because Coinbase ends up being $371.26 and Circle's sales price is the same as the purchase price ($382.60).

I had noticed that Circle is usually a bit more expensive compared to Coinbase; hadn't checked out BitStamp yet. I believe it's free to move between the former two, so although I don't plan on selling anytime soon, that's good to know in case I find myself needing to suddenly liquidate some funds.
02-11-2016 10:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
jamaicabound Offline
Pelican
****

Posts: 1,618
Joined: Feb 2014
Reputation: 21
Post: #2523
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I thought I read in an article a while back coinbase was rolling out a feature where you could set "limit orders" like with stocks as opposed to having to set alerts on apps and then login to buy at your price. Does anyone know if this feature is out yet and if so how to access it?

My current stance on bitcoin is anything below $370 is a buying opportunity, I'll occasionally sell some off if it peaks at high $390's and then reload again when it comes back down, basically accumulating more coins while making some money swing trading. I really dont see it going below $350 at the lowest.
02-11-2016 01:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2524
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(02-11-2016 10:59 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  
(02-11-2016 01:35 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I am just looking at Coinbase, Circle and Bitstamp again, and certainly, it can be good to bring down your costs by checking the prices at the time of your transaction.

Currently, as I type, buying a bitcoin would be this price:

BitStamp $379.40
Coinbase: $375 + fee = $378.74
Circle: $382.60

Selling is another story, and Circle will give you the best sales price out of the three.. because Coinbase ends up being $371.26 and Circle's sales price is the same as the purchase price ($382.60).

I had noticed that Circle is usually a bit more expensive compared to Coinbase; hadn't checked out BitStamp yet. I believe it's free to move between the former two, so although I don't plan on selling anytime soon, that's good to know in case I find myself needing to suddenly liquidate some funds.


I mention Bitstamp mostly for a reference of actual overall current bitcoin exchange rate at the time that I was comparing. Many non-exchange based services either use bitcoin or some hybrid formulated algorithm to establish their fluctuating price.

There seems to be some overall industrial pressures to use Bitfinex as the main overall price measurer. See this ranking:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/exchanges/USD/30d

However, I remain disinclined to consider Bitfinex as the leader in price, etc. for a few reasons 1) they allow for leveraged trading of up to 20x and 2) in recent months they suffered from fairly lengthy down periods of several hours and I believe bitstamp took extensive measures to fix the downtime (and loss of funds) that it had suffered more than a year ago.


I recall reading information pertaining to both Circle and Coinbase regarding how they establish their prices, but I could not find that info in a quick search.

About a year ago, I had found that Circle was consistently lower prices than Coinbase (after adding the coinbase fee), but for some reason in recent times, Coinbase is running lower than circle (even adding the fee).

Coinbase is way bigger than Circle, and possibly they are using some of their other bitcoin related, exchange and merchant, services to subsidize their actual price for selling coins?
02-11-2016 01:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #2525
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I understand that alts are a little bit off topic, but we all likely can see Ethereum as a bit of a distraction and the amazing price appreciation of the past couple of weeks.

How long it may last is another question.

These days, mostly, people get in and out of ethereum through bitcoin, so there can be some price correlations with bitcoin when there is so much ethereum volume being generated - currently about 1/3 the trade volume of bitcoin (and currently approaching 1/14 bitcoin's market cap).
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2016 01:45 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-11-2016 01:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  IRS: Bitcoin is not currency assman 23 7,791 07-06-2019 08:37 PM
Last Post: Deepdiver
  Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Profit & Loss Trackers & Capital Gains Calculators jamaicabound 2 4,795 06-01-2019 09:03 AM
Last Post: Dr. Howard
  DACing for Cryptodummies: Hassle-Free and Easy Bitcoin Investing SamuelBRoberts 108 33,436 12-26-2018 08:27 PM
Last Post: redbeard

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication