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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4626
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I admit that especially in Crypto, you can't rely on wave counts or technical analysis anywhere near as much, so maybe one of my suggestions previously didn't occur, that's not out of the ordinary. I just go by the shape of the waves and make the most plausible wave count as anyone would do. Of course there are two scenarios, that on the weekly the big red candle constitutes a 'simple' correction, or that the correction will be more complex as in down-up-(down). First two have occurred - now it needs a down wave extending beyond the previous low of around 2100. Assuming the lengths of the down waves are similar, that leads to around 1800 or thereabouts, which is also near a Fib support making it a bit more likely.

I agree that if prices go below $2,100, then we have a decent chance of breaking down to about $1800, and then if we break below $1800 then probably around $1500 would be the next level of support - however, just getting to $2100 does not seem to be an easy task...

There are difficulties even going below $2400.. so? becomes a big IF.. and IF the momentum happens to be up, it becomes even more difficult to go down.. hahahaha


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Your post seems a bit defensive in that you think I'm saying "DOWN!" "DOWN!"

hahahahaha

Maybe I am misreading you and you are misreading me?

I already understand from some of your previous posts, that you seem to be a bit more bullish than me, regarding the upside and probabilities of upside numbers.

In any event I am NOT defensive at all. I am merely describing what I think and attempting to rebutt what I think that you are saying.

So you are saying that a correction is needed before we go up, and you are overall bullish...

So I am not really discussing at all any of your overall bullish, but I question how much weight you are giving to the probability of down first before up.

I don't necessarily want to get caught in the weeds here, but I do believe that I understood what you were saying... down before up.

I also am not totally discounting what you are saying, so I am not sure exactly what kinds of odds you are giving to down first, but I am giving less than 45% chance to down first.. so maybe we are quibbling on the margins... nearly a 45% chance of down is still pretty decent, and I am just suggesting that up is more likely than down and you seem to be giving quite a bit more weight to the possibility of down before up.


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  No man chill out, and if BTC reaches $20k in the next leg up I will eat my own shit and post it on this forum. I'd like BTC to go up 20x like ETH and agree that the move has been relatively gradual compared to ETH.

I am just suggesting the three possible range, and I suggest that the chances of $20k in this particular run would be pretty low, maybe in the less than 5% territory and maybe even lower.

I just mentioned the three price ranges for this run because those three price ranges seem to be becoming more and more probable in terms of framing how s-curve growth goes and how the market frequently overshoots reasonable expectations when the circumstances become right for such.



(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I think the so-called "flippening" is gay and it should not happen. Whatever hype is around the forked chain of Ethereum it's preposterous to think it could be bigger in mcap than BTC.

Yeah, sure, the term "flippening" seems a bit gay, but it is also a means for the ETH enthusiasts to taunt the so called bitcoin maximalists with a kind of sassy form of "I told you so."

Maybe I am too chickenshit to take any kind of stance, and a year ago, when ETH's market cap was struggling to stay within 10% of bitcoin's market cap, it would have seemed even more preposterous to assert a flippening - however, when the market caps become so close, like within 15%, then the flippening possibility is well within reach and may even have a greater than not likelihood to happen within the next weeks or months....

So, suggesting that a "flippening" is impossible or ridiculous or irrational, seems to be setting yourself up for likely psychological failure. Personally, I would rather just assume that it is going to happen, and go from there.. even if I agree the event is weird and a bit ridiculous, but it we gotta live in the real world with the real facts and accept real probabilities, even if they seem ridiculous.. Maybe the world is a bit ridiculous? We certainly have a decent amount of evidence that ridiculous things happen all the time, no?



(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  That means either forked Ethereum needs to go down or BTC needs to shoot up.

Either one can happen in either direction. I try not to care or get attached to these kinds of thing, but instead, just attempt to prepare my portfolio and my considerations in order to somewhat prepare for various directions that can occur.


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I still think there is a hell of a lot more value in the original Ethereum chain aka ETC because it can do much of the same shit but is at like 6% of the cost.

You could be correct that there is value in the disparity of prices between the two. Sometimes they are going to kind of perform in a correlation, but there could be issues that arise, including the movement to POS, like you already stated that could cause them to oppositely correlate. Maybe? Sure you can bet on that if you think that there maybe some future value in any bet that you might make.




(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The context is the insanity of Dogecoin shooting up 20x for no reason, that is a pisstake coin. Sometimes it feels as if ETH forked is a pisstake coin as well in the sense of ridiculous valuation.

Yep. momentum, irrational, and likely someone willing to target some random coin for pumping.


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  It's like if the Bitcoin Unlimited guys succeeded with a hard fork and they took over the BTC name because miners voted for it, while the original chain for all this time was forced to call itself something else and keep only 6% of its value compared to the artificially forked chain. Ethereum is ETC, ETH is a fork of ETC.

I have seen a few of your posts on this topic, and you seem to be fighting the parlance. Sure, technically you are correct that ETC is the original chain - but it really does not matter because ETH is a bit different from bitcoin, at least in regards tot he fact that it has some quasi-centralization factors.. ETH tries to act as if it were decentralized, but when push comes to shove, there is a lot more centralization than bitcoin - and the large majority of the whole fucking ETH community accepts that ETH is the "original" coin, even though it is not.. but who cares?

Why fight the parlance and what the community wants? You can argue that technically ETC is the real ETH until you are blue in the face, but you are likely only going to appear like some goofball who is relying on a technicality... when the ETH community already accepted ETH as the "official" one. That is part of the reason why ETH has nearly a 20x higher price valuation than ETC, and also, I am not sure about a lot of these ICOs and the degree to which they are getting introduced through ETH rather than ETC - and those dynamics further inflate the value of ETH in comparison to ETC.


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  ETH should hopefully go down to more rational levels but who knows in this market.

When you are talking about "should", then are you really grappling with reality?

We all know that there is a difference between the "ought" and the "is", and even though ETH's market cap continues to grow which causes it to be more and more difficult to pump, there are certain mechanisms in place in ETH that allow it to be pumped more than BTC - including the fact that it does not have as much liquidity, including that it is being used to pump ICOs and probably some other pump factors.


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  So with your bullish statements about ETH, I am assuming you just bought some ETH or something? I thought you were only in ETC only small % with most still in BTC.


Currently, I don't have either ETH or ETC. I sold my ETC incrementally from $3 to nearly $18, so I was glad to run out of ETC to sell.

Probably, I would be more likely to buy ETC rather than ETH - but who knows. I have been watching and considering whether I should buy some. NO matter which one I buy, I probably would have considerable jitteriness in terms of holding any kind of quantity and continuously nervous that it is going to dump any minute.. .so yeah, at this point, my personality and my views about the whole situation is likely not very compatible with either one of them.

Currently, I only own BTC, and small amounts of LTC and Monero. I am not opposed to buying other coins if I were to think that it could be kind of worth it as a potential hedge of some sort. My current holdings in both LTC and Monero are so small that I don't really pay too much attention to them..


(06-28-2017 08:13 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The thing about BTC is as always: as it gets higher, it gets harder to move just as a penny stock can go 10000% quickly but big blue chips reach a point where they're just too big to make those huge moves like before. I guess that's why as a speculative investment Dogecoin or the other copycat coins made better sense to pump. I'd love to see it at $20k but it takes a lot of new money coming in to move a $2500 to nearly 10x that. Not saying it won't happen but it's going to be hard.

bitcoin seems to be a lot more volatile than a lot of other traditional investments, but in the crypto space, it seems that part of the value proposition of bitcoin concerns its safer downside, rather than its explosive potential upside.

I have only recently come around to considering $20k as a more than de minimus possibility in the past week or so, based on some of the positive news in regards to seg wit and just how other things are falling into place, including the price performance of some of these recent price corrections that are seeming to be more bullish than they are bearish...

So, yeah, I don't really give $20k a very high chance because it is on the upside of the upside.. and we would have to get past a large number of resistance points before such a price would come within reasonable grasp.... and not sounding too pie in the sky... so yeah, if we currently have a less than 5%, but maybe more realistically a less than 3% chance of getting close to $20k in this price run, that is certainly NOT trivial in my view, and in that regard, I begun to believe that it is worth mentioning as a possible upside potential, even if it is a quite a stretch and quite a bit on the lowside of actual possibilities and it could even be a bit lower than I am describing it to be... even though I am trying to give a kind of approximation of my own perceptions based on current dynamics.
06-28-2017 09:17 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4627
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(06-28-2017 09:16 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  ^ Why do you think ETC is better than ETH?

I was under the impression that ETH is a huge improvement over ETC, and that was the whole point of their hard fork.


I understand that you are asking Skank... so yeah I expect that he should chime in on this topic because he made the assertion.

I personally would not assert better or worse, but if you understand the history, then you realize that one of the initial momentums for ETC refusing to fork off was because they did not believe in the fork. The ETH fork, at that time, was to save the DAO investors, and that was the main purpose of it, and ETH assumed that everyone would go along with it, and they did not realize that some folks would stay behind and assert that they did not believe in a fork for that reason, and the ETC folks have outlined some other differentiating factors.. including having an ETC declaration of independence. hahahaha

https://ethereumclassic.github.io/assets...ndence.pdf
06-28-2017 09:24 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4628
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Currently, I am getting the impression that we are likely to blow right past $2,600, and $2,700 will be the "true" test of whether we are going back into the testing of $3k resistance. As I type, price just moved up from $2,550 to $2,590 - so we are in the upper $2,500s, at the moment.

For me, it remains quite amazing to continue to witness the dynamics of the order book walls as a kind of contrary indicator of price direction.

Currently, ask walls are building the fuck up, and therefore, it is beginning to feel as if we are going UP.., even though if you look at the sell wall, you would come to the opposite conclusion. It is almost as if the higher the wall differentials (between bid and ask) on the ask side, the more likely we are going UP...

I will concede that trade volume of the past 24 hours has been relatively mediocre and even down a bit - however, trade volume for this whole week, starting from the Sunday change of the weekly candle is definitely on the above average side, and in that regard, on a weekly basis we continue to have high trade volume.. and also in that regard, the lower trade volume of the past 24 hours, likely just adds up to a kind of coiling effect... coiling for the strike - and that is striking UP....

So, even though I am merging into a confidence level, let me tell you that my movement has likely only gone from 55% up to 56% up... and therefore, there is still a 44% chance for down, no matter how excited you may read into my posting, here there is only about a 1% change and just a sense of glad that we continue to experience ongoing upwards price pressures in this price range (maybe currently in the $2450 to $2750 range).

I know that guys sometimes like to read excitement as if there were 100% confidence, even though from my perspective there may have only been about a 1% change in my confidence level and my increased enthusiasm based on that tweak of perspective and witnessing the price movements.

In any event, hang on and let us head to $2,700 and see where we can go from there.... but yeah we are pausing at $2600 - even though it seems that we should be able to get passed that with relative ease, no?
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2017 01:14 PM by JayJuanGee.)
06-29-2017 12:26 PM
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Skank_Hunt Offline
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Post: #4629
RE: The Bitcoin thread
We agree on BTC for the long-term, so any short-term debates I don't think will be that productive since it's essentially a case of hodl whatever little things we disagree on in terms of corrections or continuations etc. Short-term prices don't affect me and perversely big especially double digit percentage numbers in red make me smile. Perverse I know. It would be particularly nice to see ETH and ETC get a good -70% correction in one day. Smile Don't sweat the short term moves man, you've got enough BTC just hodl and think of 10k which is a realistic possibility not so far away.

BTC still leads the market and even ETH and the rest of the altcoins follow. What was interesting was the inverse relationship they have had in the past, which is logical in fiat terms to keep the fiat price the same, but recently there has been a noticeable change in that BTC increases while altcoins also increase in terms of BTC and hence doubly in terms of fiat. It used to be BTC goes up, altcoin goes down in satoshi terms to offset the BTC gain, now it's both go up. I wonder how long that relationship will last and if/when it will change.

That's cool you don't hold ETH, I thought you would for some reason. One other "flippening" I hope happens is between ETC/ETH. It's admittedly a lower probability but what if prices between ETH/ETC flipped or at least reached near parity? That would be cool. I like ETC compared to ETH because it is immutable unlike ETH which has shown itself to be actively controlled by a central authority, so it has the technological advances of ETH but with more trust, in my opinion. For better or worse, cryptocurrency payments should be irreversible to avoid the chaos of things like chargebacks. Everyone of course has to be warned of this before they start sending big payments. Finally, ETC is around 5% the price of ETH. The latter may have some extra features added but the core technology is the same. ETC can do what ETH can for the most part, I think. Yet it is priced 95% lower than ETH, which is a forked chain. Based on these two factors, trust and relative price, I think ETH Original AKA ETC is a strong buy, at least compared to ETH Forked.
06-29-2017 08:05 PM
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Post: #4630
RE: The Bitcoin thread
amazon will start accepting bitcoin as a payment method soon
06-30-2017 04:10 AM
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Isaac Jordan Offline
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Post: #4631
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(06-30-2017 04:10 AM)Kale_anonymous Wrote:  amazon will start accepting bitcoin as a payment method soon

Link/source?
06-30-2017 11:00 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #4632
RE: The Bitcoin thread
My business gets hit up with people who want us to integrate bitcoin as a payments solution every once in a while.

We usually laugh in their face. It's not anywhere near ready for that.
06-30-2017 11:09 AM
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Stun Offline
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Post: #4633
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm not convinced segwit2x is a done deal, or accepted by many of the core developers and by the miners. I wish news about this was more readily available, but you have go off what the major players are saying on twitter to get a very good impression. Here is the latest publicized news about the process.

If segwit2x runs into very much resistance, I feel this is bearish news for Bitcoin considering the timeframe. The bulls will probably pump it a few more times at 2430, but without reliable, good news on this be prepared for a down swing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdhFJ5uArUc
06-30-2017 12:08 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4634
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(06-30-2017 12:08 PM)Stun Wrote:  I'm not convinced segwit2x is a done deal, or accepted by many of the core developers and by the miners. I wish news about this was more readily available, but you have go off what the major players are saying on twitter to get a very good impression. Here is the latest publicized news about the process.

If segwit2x runs into very much resistance, I feel this is bearish news for Bitcoin considering the timeframe. The bulls will probably pump it a few more times at 2430, but without reliable, good news on this be prepared for a down swing.

Of course, the situation is not resolved, yet, but the combination of segwit2x and the UASF, BIP148 and BIP 91 reconciliation of these seemingly conflicting proposals, seems to have caused a situation in which the segwit portion is more and more certain and also that seg wit is seeming likely to become active and locked into bitcoin by mid to late August.

So the segwit portion is bullish.

On the other hand, the aspects pertaining to 2mb upgrade, the hardfork and attempts at changing consensus levels. Those matters remain in contention. A major thrust of this whole contentiousness is not about the technology such as the 2mb upgrade or the hardfork , but the desire of a large number of folks to change consensus and to make matters easier to change in bitcoin.

There is a belief that if things are easier to change in bitcoin then it will take away disputes, but probably the opposite is true.

Anyhow if segwit goes thorugh then the threat of a hard fork seems to be put off until November-ish.. so the short term is not necessarily as bearish as you are making it out to be --- and it is possible the at the short term is even bullish - based on the seemingly segwit portion becoming more and more likely to get locked in.. (sure locking that portion in is not a done deal yet, but it is looking more and more likely based on the various BIPs that are out there and how consensus seems to be lining up around that part of the matter).
06-30-2017 01:06 PM
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Post: #4635
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Senator's War on Cryptos and Cash:

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#sent/1...rojector=1

We all need to fight this Senate bill 1241 and write all of our Congressmen and Senators and Mr. Trump and Team... that the unintended consequences will be to drive off the greatest innovations since the internet to more Crypto friendly countries like Switzerland both the Ethereum and LiteCoin foundations moved to Switzerland.... this could cripple Trillions of Dollars of new Market Capitalization in the next 5 to 10 years and severely cripple the US Treasuries tax receptis from the sale of these Blockchain-Crypto Currencies by early investors and developers.

This proposed law is onerous - will eliminate anonymous tang hunt and bang runs as well - very likely to be weaponized against red pill men...

Covers all Prepaid Access Devices, DigitalCurrencies - Digital Tumblers - Bitcoin Anonymizers - Cards, Plates, Codes, Mobile or Personal ID Numbers to Portals... Smart Phone Wallets and Notebook PC Email accounts to see what emails you have sent...

This is the type of surveillance industrial state intrusiveness that never ends with these Deep State cucks - this is nothing less than preparation for a Cyprus Style "Net Asset Sweep" bail in to deal with the enormous Obamunists weaponized US Budget Deficits and Un-payable enormous unfunded Federal State County City and local towns Pension Liabilities - really just theft of your Retirement Savings and Investments Accounts...

We all have to FIGHT this mega Deep State overreach.

I will be contacting and donating to Rand and Ron Paul over this as well...

Deepdiver - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Trump's achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists 45 Goals for the USA:
https://www.beliefnet.com/columnists/wat...-1963.html
(This post was last modified: 06-30-2017 01:15 PM by Deepdiver.)
06-30-2017 01:14 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4636
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's an hour long interview of Trace Mayor that was just put on his podcast today, even though the interview seems to be about a month old, based on his discussion of then current BTC price of $2300 and ETH price of $200...

How matters fly quickly in this space... but his discussion seems still relevant - and he is almost always bullish about bitcoin, including in this interview... in which he mostly discusses bitcoin and its fundamental storage of value, future value and propositions about amount of bitcoins in circulation. Towards the end, he also does a little bit of comparison and contrast of ETH and Ripple.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/bitc...70981?mt=2
06-30-2017 01:53 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4637
RE: The Bitcoin thread
There is hardly any certainty to the direction of this segwit2x thingie-ma-jiggie.

As many of you may realize, the segwit2x code released today, and it should not really be a surprised that on the surface, the code looks tricky and buggy as fuck.

In other words sloppy. Segwit2x is also going to be running on some newly created testnet for 2weeks and they are not running it on the already created testnet - which really seems hiding the ball kind of suspicious.

Anyhow, today, it appears that LukeDashJr, wrote a review about the released code and he is not impressed and eve questions the extent to which any actual business is going to want to run the sloppy and/or tricky code that has been presented.

https://medium.com/@lukedashjr/the-segwi...480694a8c7
07-01-2017 05:02 AM
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Post: #4638
RE: The Bitcoin thread
We are a bit through half of the weekend, and of course a bank holiday coming on Tuesday.

Seems that largely BTC prices remain in the $2,350 to $2,700 range - even though we got close to the lower end of the range, less than 24 hours ago.

This week's candle will be closing in about 2 hours, so there may be a bit of a nail biter whether it is going to close red or green. I think that it has to close a little bit above $2,502 in order to be green, and as I type prices are bouncing between $2,480 and $2,517 and seemingly slightly in the upwards movement direction, for the moment, but the weekly candle could close either way.

So, my assertion of the current price range of $2,350 to $2,700 remains quite large, even though a more strict analysis inclines towards the use of triangles, which suggests that over time the price range is going to consolidate into more and more narrow - as compared to my less formal and more armchair approach which allows me to deviate in my own thinking about what is relevant to price or its possible direction.

In any event there seems to be a bit uncertainty in the current price direction - and maybe even I am heading towards the 50/50 arena regarding the direction of the break out - whereas a few days ago I was a bit more inclined towards the consideration of an UPWARDS price break.
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2017 05:35 PM by JayJuanGee.)
07-02-2017 05:11 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4639
RE: The Bitcoin thread
If some of you may not have heard about the latest drama with the fake satoshi - Craig Wright.

He made an unexpected and stupid-ass speech and presentation yesterday

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...or_not_as/

More or less, CW seems to be suggesting that he is teaming up with various BU and anti-segwit proponents in order to hardfork bitcoin because he thinks that segwit is an inferior solution in terms of scaling and even security.

I am not trying to give CW too much credit, and it is possible that his chiming in could have an inverse affect on BTC prices, because maybe in the end, the sooner and more ridiculous the proposed hardfork, the less likely such a proposed hardfork would be successful and the more likely that the segwit version of bitcoin can move forward with whatever remaining hashpower remains with such segwit fork?

Here's another article in which whalepanda is ciritical of the CW motives and alliances.

https://hackernoon.com/nchain-in-the-bra...15a8b07f04
07-02-2017 08:10 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #4640
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Hi Jay should I put one coin in that?
07-03-2017 08:05 PM
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Post: #4641
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-03-2017 08:05 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Hi Jay should I put one coin in that?


I'm not sure if I understand the question. Are you just asking about whether this is a good time to buy generally, in spite of various uncertainties and weirdnesses going on in the bitcoin space?

Currently, we are approximately in the middle of what I had proposed to be the trading range of $2350 to $2700, and we seem to continue to have ongoing upwards price pressures, even though that really does not tell us too much about whether BTC prices are going to break out to the upside or to the downside, and I am a bit torn about the direction of the likely breakout too... but what else is new?

Most of the time, I am torn, even if I make an attempt at describing the price situation, and for example, now we should not be getting too excited unless it appears that we are going to leave the price range in one direction or another.

So, I apologize if I don't get the reference, yet with the passage of time, my suggestions don't really change too much because I continue to advocate a kind of incrementalism, and your thinking on the topic would likely be different if you don't own any bitcoin compared with if you have accumulated quite a few of them.

If your question is about investing in Craig Wright or some other specific fork of a thing that is going on, I would need some clarification regarding such an investment potential.
(This post was last modified: 07-03-2017 08:31 PM by JayJuanGee.)
07-03-2017 08:29 PM
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Post: #4642
RE: The Bitcoin thread
What are you guys doing for August 1st? Holding or buying altcoins/USD/tether?

I myself am interested in buying BTU, assuming a fork.
07-04-2017 09:31 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4643
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-04-2017 09:31 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  What are you guys doing for August 1st? Holding or buying altcoins/USD/tether?

I myself am interested in buying BTU, assuming a fork.

There's nothing wrong with hedging bets in various ways or even giving a high probability to an event occurring, such as a forking...

Yet, there is a bit of lack of clarity in what you are saying. I think that you are referring to the uncertainties of a hardfork, right?

The August 1 UASF - is a softfork, yet there are other various possibilities of hardforking mixed up in there but not as likely to occur before November or so, if at all.

A softfork is much more easy to gradually measure the effects as compared with a hardfork. Accordingly, we have various levels of signaling of intention going on, and we have various levels of actually running software that would trigger various BIPS to become activated if the software being run reaches certain threshold levels (such as 80%).

Even though a hardfork could occur at any time, the odds of a hardfork seem pretty low in the immediate future, because some of these other more softforking scenarios seem to be more likely to play out in order to at least achieve the segwit portion of the implementation... but we have gaming going on in regards to whether those thresholds will occur, too.. and confusion. I follow this shit on a regular basis and I find it quite confusing to attempt to calculate how these matters might play out.. even when there are so many scenarios in which seg wit implementation (in a kind of softfork) manner seems to be very likely to reach a high enough consensus level for a long enough period of time that it will get locked in.

In other words, it seems that something like November would be more possible and reasonable for a hardfork, but I understand with all of this gaming bullshit, the element of surprise can play a very important role, too, so if there are some ways that the hardforking nutjobs believe that they can muster enough support to follow, then they might pull the hardforking trigger... but we seem to be quite a ways away from that state of affairs (even given the caveat of the element of surprise that could be attempted).

Accordingly, I am not really seeing any justification for rash actions or rash reallocations, but certainly, any guy can consider this differently, and consider various reallocation preventative measures in the coming weeks, whether that is reallocating 20% or 50% or even 100% of some parts of your crypto investment(s)
07-04-2017 04:08 PM
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tellmewhy Offline
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Post: #4644
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I am very interested in this.
07-05-2017 10:46 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4645
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-05-2017 10:46 PM)tellmewhy Wrote:  I am very interested in this.


You mean bitcoin specifically, because there is at least one other active RVF crypto thread, too?

Also there are a lot of parts of bitcoin.. are you interested in buying, or have you already bought some?
07-05-2017 11:03 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4646
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I believe a few days ago Core released some BIP148 supporting code.. that is the BIP supporting August 1, user activated softfork... I saw it and I had thought that I posted it here... oh well, here it is:

https://bitcoinuasf.org/

Previously, I had thought that core was distancing themselves from BIP148, but maybe I had been misreading - and there also seems to be some gaming going on with segwit2x, too that may end up attempts to pull mining power from support of such segwit2x prior to the locking in of segwit - so if there are other leveraging mechanisms that cause segwit to get locked in, then that could be more reassuring to bitcoin and to markets, maybe?
07-06-2017 01:36 PM
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Bill Brasky Offline
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Post: #4647
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I just finished reading the position paper for Tezos and learned more about Bitcoin in about 30 minutes than I have in several months.

It seems to me that the Proof of Work model on which Bitcoin operates is ultimately going to be obsolete. The fact that it requires burning fiat does protect it from attacks but it ultimately seems unsustainable in the long term.

I'm sure this has already been discussed in the thread somewhere but given the fact that I have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin since January of this year and that I am currently day trading with other Alts to ultimately acquire more BTC, it does give me some pause about me being long on BTC. I don't see it going away any time soon as there are way too many big players financially invested in its success but I think its starting to loose some of the benefits of its first mover advantage.

Here is the paper if any wants to read:

https://www.tezos.com/static/papers/position_paper.pdf
(This post was last modified: 07-06-2017 05:19 PM by Bill Brasky.)
07-06-2017 05:19 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4648
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-06-2017 05:19 PM)Bill Brasky Wrote:  I just finished reading the position paper for Tezos and learned more about Bitcoin in about 30 minutes than I have in several months.

It seems to me that the Proof of Work model on which Bitcoin operates is ultimately going to be obsolete. The fact that it requires burning fiat does protect it from attacks but it ultimately seems unsustainable in the long term.

I'm sure this has already been discussed in the thread somewhere but given the fact that I have been dollar cost averaging into bitcoin since January of this year and that I am currently day trading with other Alts to ultimately acquire more BTC, it does give me some pause about me being long on BTC. I don't see it going away any time soon as there are way too many big players financially invested in its success but I think its starting to loose some of the benefits of its first mover advantage.

Here is the paper if any wants to read:

https://www.tezos.com/static/papers/position_paper.pdf

Sure, you can lessen your allocation in bitcoin and increase your allocation in other coins if you believe that crap... The technically sophisticated article is a more in-depth way of coming to the same conclusions, like you said, to somehow suggest that proof of stake is more sustainable than proof of work and arguing that bitcoin is flawed and not going to play out in the long term..

Nearly pure speculation, and the fact of the matter is that bitcoin resolved the double spend problem and has a continued building on that with computing power that continues to be directed towards bitcoin.

Certainly, I don't advocate investing in any crypto, including bitcoin on any kind of locked-in 20 year term - and with any of these crypto matters, it can be a decent plan to consider your allocation in such a way that you are prepared for exponential price movements that could go in either direction.. and even keeping an open mind about whether some reallocation might be warranted...

I guess my point is that the technological sophistication of the arguments in the article don't move me in terms of their pointing out any kind of meaningful issue at the moment - except the recognition that there are a lot of folks that want to shake you from holding your bitcoins... in order that they can pick up some cheaper coins.

Certainly in the coming months we are facing some very interesting scenarios involving the four questions regarding implementation and changes in implementation.. 1) segwit, 2) 2mb upgrade 3) hardfork 4) changes in rules of consensus.

At the moment, it seems as if only the first one is going to go through - even though there is a large amount of disinformation and aspirations to muddy about the waters about the remaining three issues... and alt-coin propaganda is weaved into these discussions.

So, yeah, figure out your allocation preferences? You going to invest in ETH?

Well, sure there are a lot of ways to individualize your holdings, and there is not a shortage of information striving to denigrate and call for bitcoin's current death or soon to be coming death.

By the way, have you looked at the daily weighted BTC price averages lately?

My fucking god!!!!! This remains a phenomenal period of time in which bitcoin prices have been in the upper arena of its range and within striking distance of ATHs for so many months.. 6 months now?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg19967438

Surely, such data is not conclusive regarding the price direction, but the it seems to show me that we have been experiencing a kind of unprecedented long period of ATH price territories.. .. and kind of sustainable too.. because there have been many unsuccessful efforts to attempt to get the price to go down.. and the buying pressure seems to be ongoing and too great and the price just does not seem to want to go down..

So in that regard, even if we get a correction down to $1500 or below, seems like it is going to take a whole hell-of-a-lot of efforts to get there.. and even that scenario would not necessarily convert BTC into a bear market - because remember????? we were just solidly below $1200 less than 3 months ago..

so yeah, peeps keep expecting the crash of bitcoin and sooner or later they are going to be correct, in spite of the seeming continuing and amazing ongoing upwards price pressures.

Sure, my BTC holdings would diminish in value by more than 50% if prices go down to $1200, but I got quite a bit of fiat stacked up and kind of waiting for such a drop too... that is seeming quite difficult to play out in the real and actual world of current BTC price dynamics.
07-06-2017 07:02 PM
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Bill Brasky
Bill Brasky Offline
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Post: #4649
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm wanting to take a break from day trading and have started loaning Ether on Bitfinex. I saw some of the BTC funding bids and several are paying well over 1000%, one as high as 8500% per DAY for about 4,500 bitcoins (roughly $11,000,000).

The loan periods are for about 2 days.

Is there something I am not reading correctly?
07-06-2017 08:56 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-06-2017 08:56 PM)Bill Brasky Wrote:  I'm wanting to take a break from day trading and have started loaning Ether on Bitfinex. I saw some of the BTC funding bids and several are paying well over 1000%, one as high as 8500% per DAY for about 4,500 bitcoins (roughly $11,000,000).

The loan periods are for about 2 days.

Is there something I am not reading correctly?


Maybe you can give a link or two, or send the link privately, because something does not sound right about that.

I do understand that there are a variety of ways to make money on your bitcoin, including loaning them out... I personally have not been engaging in such practices, but maybe some other RVF guys have been.
07-06-2017 09:04 PM
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