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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4726
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's another forking flowchart... ...

https://image.ibb.co/gh1wxv/Bitcoin_flowchart_2017.png


I know I am providing a lot of different charts, but this is an active (shooter) situation, so it remains very informative to assess these varying perspectives in order to supplement our thinking about whether we are fucked or not. I hope not, but the story seems far from over, yet.
07-18-2017 03:42 AM
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Post: #4727
RE: The Bitcoin thread
There seems to be some optimism in the bitcoin market that the signaling of BIP91 is going to reach 80% and be sustained for about 72 hours prior to August 1.

So far, it appears that BIP91 has been available for a bit less than 48 hours and has reached 66% - so the signs are fairly decent... and this whole process seems to be causing additional upwards price pressures and optimism.

This below article seems to be accurate regarding the desire to achieve a 72 hour sustainable support of 80% for BIP91, as far as I can determine.

http://www.coindesk.com/coindesk-explain...ing-split/


I don't know if this second article might be more within the spirit of RVF guys. Apparently John McFee asserted that he would eat his own dick if bitcoin does not go to $500k in 3 years... something like that.. and there are a couple other bullish predictions of $5k by the end of the year by stock analyst Ronnie Moas and $50k by 2022 by Tom Lee - founder of litecoin.

Interesting stuffs:

https://news.bitcoin.com/500000-per-bitc...n-bitcoin/


By the way, trade volume is seeming pretty strong.. .and I am starting to think that we might be returning to our previous $2300 to $2700 range.. and in that regard, maybe slightly on the optimistic side about a possible breakout to the upside to test $3k.. I might be about 50/50 and tentative about the situation, but I agree that rapidly closing in on 80% on the BIP91 seems to currently be a fairly solid objective reason for optimism and bullishness. (btw, within last hours bouncing between $2300 and $2330 as I type with seemingly upwards movement therein)
(This post was last modified: 07-18-2017 08:30 AM by JayJuanGee.)
07-18-2017 08:15 AM
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Post: #4728
RE: The Bitcoin thread
A few more bullish bitcoin links.

1) Article seems pretty accurate to describe good odds of a hardfork avoidance and likely implementation and locking in of segwit through BIP91

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/18/bitcoin-s...oblem.html

2) This article is discussing a fourth industrial revolution and gives some credit to bitcoin for starting it - even though it does not seem to specifically distinguish bitcoin, at this point but instead seems to be describing "blockchain technologies." Overall decent read.

http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/blockchai...evolution/
07-19-2017 09:01 AM
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Post: #4729
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I am glad that Coinbase has communicated that it has some balls - and pretty much it is unambiguously asserting that it is not going to support any user activated "hardfork" on August 1, which seems to be referring to the Jihun proposition rather than the BIP148 UASF situation (the two are different)


https://twitter.com/coinbase/status/887703206435758080
07-19-2017 06:42 PM
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CleanSlate Offline
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Post: #4730
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I don't like how Coinbase handled this. They are an exchange and should not have any influence or position on how bitcoin handles its scaling issues whatsoever. They crossed a line and shame on them for doing so.

Instead, they must focus on improving their almost non-existent customer service, expanding their server capacity, introducing more coins to trade, and fighting off the IRS.

Let the bitcoin community handle their disputes, and Coinbase needs to get the hell out of the way.
(This post was last modified: 07-19-2017 06:50 PM by CleanSlate.)
07-19-2017 06:49 PM
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Post: #4731
RE: The Bitcoin thread
This below link seems to be another good one to monitor the extent to which a hardfork might be detected.


Apparently the bars on the website change from green to red if a hardfork is detected.

https://www.btcforkmonitor.info/
07-19-2017 08:43 PM
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Post: #4732
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2017 06:49 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I don't like how Coinbase handled this. They are an exchange and should not have any influence or position on how bitcoin handles its scaling issues whatsoever. They crossed a line and shame on them for doing so.

Instead, they must focus on improving their almost non-existent customer service, expanding their server capacity, introducing more coins to trade, and fighting off the IRS.

Let the bitcoin community handle their disputes, and Coinbase needs to get the hell out of the way.


Probably we can agree to disagree about this point, because I don't really understand how you could really believe that this particular decision is unnecessarily political from Coinbase. It would seem to be political to assert that they would recognize such a hardfork as it is currently being communicated.

For the most part, communicating non-recognition of such a fork seems like a smart business decision, and it seems to be that Coinbase is on top of the dynamics of the hardfork that is currently being threatened by Bitmain on 8/1-ish.

Coinbase indicated their reason for their decision, which is largely that it appears that the hardfork, as currently proposed is not following the already established ruleset - and disclosed their plan to their users..

Yeah, maybe Coinbase could have provided longer notice or communicated their decision in a different way, but it seems to be a reaction to an evolving situation and a prudent approach and I am glad that they attempted to clarify their situation and their plan in a fairly prompt manner.

They are not asserting that they will not recognize any kind of hardfork in the future but they are saying that they are not going to recognize this particular hardfork as it is currently being proposed because it seems to be currently being proposed by an apparently minority group that is not following the existing ruleset, no?

On the other hand, if there is sufficient hashpower that follows any such hardfork, were it to occur, by the seeming "minority group", then that could become the new bitcoin, and then Coinbase might have to change their position regarding recognition of such a hardfork, were it to occur.

Certainly as a business they can chose which coins to carry on their exchange and which coins to recognize, and I think that they are correct that some kind of spontaneous hardfork (as seems to be contemplated in this current hardfork proposal by Bitmain) would not be bitcoin - unless it were to follow the existing ruleset or obtain an overwhelming majoirty of hashpower (whether that is 80% or 95%, as seems to be the existing ruleset).

I'm not sure how that particular Coinbase position could be construed to be political, unless you are wanting them to be political by recognizing what seems to be various rogue attempts at hardforking bitcoin and to attempt to create new rulesets.

Are we talking about the same thing?

Edit:

By the way, here is a more fleshed out announcement from Coinbase/GDAX.

https://blog.gdax.com/uahf-a703b6a13115

Be clear that Coinbase is talking about NOT recognizing the hardfork - which is a proposed rogue attack by Bitmain and whoever will follow, and Coinbase does NOT take the same approach in regards to the User Activated Soft Fork. (USAF - BIP 148)


Does that help to clarify?
(This post was last modified: 07-19-2017 09:24 PM by JayJuanGee.)
07-19-2017 09:09 PM
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CleanSlate Offline
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Post: #4733
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2017 09:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Are we talking about the same thing?

No we're not. I am talking about how Coinbase needs to fix their own damn house before making statements about how the Bitcoin community should fix theirs.
07-19-2017 10:14 PM
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Post: #4734
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2017 10:14 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  
(07-19-2017 09:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Are we talking about the same thing?

No we're not. I am talking about how Coinbase needs to fix their own damn house before making statements about how the Bitcoin community should fix theirs.


I recall a couple of years ago, Coinbase was getting involved with the discussion about the scaling debate, but recently they seem to have been more restraint in their discussion of those matters.

You and I seem to be viewing this announcement differently because I do not see Coinbase's announcement as involvement or judgement about the bitcoin community.

I believe that all that they are saying is how they are going to treat the matter of a hardfork that is being proposed (and threatened in the way that it is), which seems reasonable.

You seem to be viewing Coinbase's approach as a kind of political statement, which seems a bit of a stretch to me.....

You seem to be considering that these threats of hardforks and changing the bitcoin rules as being within reason, which seems unreasonable to me.

I think that there are some circles of information about bitcoin and politics that are just not correct. Some of these seemingly misinformation viewpoints are in the ETH/ alt pumping circles and some of these are in the circles that believe that it is it reasonable to hijack bitcoin with a hardfork, and if you buy into some of those viewpoints regarding the nature of the debate - such as villianizing and overly personalizing the systems of Core and buying into the bitcoin is dead (or dying), then in my perspective, you are going to likely over politicize everything... and maybe even overly personalize certain behaviors, such as the coinbase announcement.

I believe that I try not to get caught up on some of this dogma, and I try not to talk anything regarding my book, but some of the seeming misinformation about bitcoin is dead and bitcoin needs to be hardforked seems to run through the thinking of some RVF members, too... Maybe there is some getting caught up upon thinking and planning for the "ought to be" rather than the "is?"

I am having difficulties understanding how to respond to such seemingly baggage-laden commentaries. Maybe there is a foundation in the thinking in terms of whether a guy thinks that a hardfork should be accepted to be bitcoin, and under what conditions? I am having trouble. Maybe it is just better that we agree to disagree because I am having some troubles getting a grasp of your viewpoint on this or the motivation for thinking that Coinbase is overextending themselves, this time around?

Edit: I am rethinking some of my thinking on the topic of Coinbase's recognition decision and my above post.

I recall that Coinbase had gotten into a bit of trouble last year when ETH split and they refused to recognize the ETC portion of that split. There was a kind of replay issue there, and I believe that coinbase ended up losing money regarding that situation.

I wonder if this is a similar kind of situation, or if they might have learned from their earlier mistakes. Surely, Cleanslate, you could be thinking that Coinbase is failing/refusing to recognize the minority fork is a kind of extraction of value? or a failure to preserve value that would likely exist on both forks (majority and minority forks)?
(This post was last modified: 07-19-2017 11:25 PM by JayJuanGee.)
07-19-2017 10:52 PM
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Post: #4735
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I don't know if guys are watching this, but it's a bit of a nailbiter regarding whether BIP91 is going to get locked in during this signaling period that is ending in about 21.5 hours.

Here are two websites to check the status. Each of these websites have added bars and descriptions, so you can really see a live renditions concerning likelihood of locking into BIP91.

https://coin.dance/blocks


https://www.xbt.eu/

The punchline is that 269 blocks need to Signal BIP91 during this 336 block signaling period.

As I type, 165 blocks have been found that have signaled BIP91. There are approximately 128 blocks remaining in this signaling period before a new signaling period starts, and therefore there are 104 of those blocks that would be needed to signal BIP91 to lock it in, otherwise a new signaling period starts to allow another opportunity.

This signal period has about 128x10 minutes = 1280 minutes remaining. That is about 21.5 hours.

Like I said a nail biter regarding whether BIP91 will reach the 80% goal during this signaling period... and then be locked in... which then begins the likely locking in of segwit in approximately two signaling periods thereafter. We cross one step at a time.
(This post was last modified: 07-20-2017 01:21 AM by JayJuanGee.)
07-20-2017 01:15 AM
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Post: #4736
RE: The Bitcoin thread
This flow chart is kind of neat.

Because of its colors, it seems a bit easier to read than some of the others:

[Image: 1*rjn00kvasUiFaQgoRcbxtg.jpeg]


You can also look at the page directly for a better manageable size.

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000...cbxtg.jpeg
(This post was last modified: 07-20-2017 04:01 AM by JayJuanGee.)
07-20-2017 03:33 AM
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Post: #4737
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2017 10:14 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  
(07-19-2017 09:09 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Are we talking about the same thing?

No we're not. I am talking about how Coinbase needs to fix their own damn house before making statements about how the Bitcoin community should fix theirs.


Hey CleanSlate. It appears that Gemini made a statement yesterday, too that seems to be a bit more open than Coinbase's planned approach.

https://gemini.com/blog/information-rela...ain-split/

Would you conclude that Gemini is being more responsible because they are being more open in their approach? Even though from what they are saying, they could come to the same conclusion as Coinbase without making such assertions ahead of time. Thoughts?

If you guys are paying attention, this $300 or more than 11% price increase in the past 12 hours seems to be attributable to the appearance that there are pretty strong odds that BIP91 is going to get locked in during this difficulty period - which in my view seems to considerably less than odds of any meaningful hardfork in the near future... even some of the threats of a hostile hardfork seem to be less likely because of this BIP91 direction that is going to allow for the locking in and then activation of segwit.

By the way, I say we have $300 price appreciation, but really we have about $800 - which is about 30% from last weeks dippening.. so maybe we have witnessed a flippening of the dippening (again?) Banana
07-20-2017 02:49 PM
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CleanSlate Offline
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Post: #4738
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm under the impression that BIP91 has ALREADY got locked in as of today. Am I correct?

Does this also mean the UASF is now off the table?
07-20-2017 09:23 PM
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Post: #4739
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2017 09:23 PM)CleanSlate Wrote:  I'm under the impression that BIP91 has ALREADY got locked in as of today. Am I correct?

Does this also mean the UASF is now off the table?

So today's upwards price spike was within hours before BIP91 got locked in, and then as soon as it locked in, then the price dropped (or at least stop going up).

Of course, there are still various players attempting to engage in some gamesmanship, but I think that the punchline is that the USAF is off of the table because BIP91 has a 350 block grace period, and then thereafter miners have to signal segwit or else their blocks will be left out - so this pretty much provides a road for segwit to be locked in and then activated in the very near future - sometime in mid-to-late August, I am not clear about the exact date that segwit will be activated - but I think that the market likes these parts... and will give a bit of time for potential additional bullish moves..


And also makes the four proposed hard forks to be considerably less likely, even though variations of the four proposed hardforks are considerably likely to continue to be threatened and to argue that they are necessary... and it is possible that some of those hardforks could actually take place, but it seems fairly unlikely that too many folks will follow such a minority chain even though there continues to be considerable propaganda around the necessity of improviing bitcoin in the various proposed on chain ways... seemingly anti-segwit and anti core governance.
07-21-2017 12:13 AM
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Post: #4740
RE: The Bitcoin thread
O.k. guys. Maybe we are in a place for another temporary assessment?

We had about a week and a half of extremely bullish behavior and really exponential price spurts.

Some of the bullish behavior comes from a mere rebound from the significant correction down from $2980 to $1830 - however, BIP 91 has largely provided a vehicle for the locking in and activation of segwit that seems pretty clear, straight forward and likely.

Regarding the seeming "inevitability" of segwit, surely we have to watch for signs that some additional gamesmanship might get employed, but there continues to be considerable evidence that miners are going along with such signaling that is going to lock in segwit in the next period.

You can see here.

https://coin.dance/blocks

Currently the segwit signaling is 100%, and 95% is needed for a period of 2016 blocks - and since this 2016 blocks signaling period is almost over, there was not enough support in this period because a lot of miners did not employ segwit signaling until after BIP91 was locked in.

I think that this is a strong buy on the dips period.

I personally am not really doing anything differently because I bought a long time ago and have been pretty much employing the same variation of my strategy throughout this considerable volatility and uncertainty - and it seems to be working out pretty good.. and I feel pretty good about my current allocation of my bitcoin allocated funds to be 92.7% bitcoins - even though I probably would feel o.k. with a 95% or 96% allocation too. Anyhow, I have been pretty much staying within my range of authorized allocations in the past several months... so it seems to be playing out fairly well for me.

Right now, we have broken upwards through a couple of resistance points ($2400 and $2700), so currently it seems that we are really in the striking range of breaking upwards through $3k.. which seems to have pretty decent odds at the moment - which would likely take us at least to $3400 to $3600 range... and then $4k to $6k thereafter.

Surely, in spite of what seems to be considerably ongoing strong upwards buying pressures, it is not unheard of that we could experience one more considerable attempt at a shake out of weak hands.. yet I am having very hard times considering that such a shake out would take us below $2600 absent some really strong and meaningful FUD.. In other words, the price pressures are currently UPPITY - so ordinary FUD is not likely to be sufficient to shake this upwards price momentum...

As I type we are largely bouncing between $2780 and $2830.
07-22-2017 03:41 PM
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Post: #4741
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-13-2017 07:14 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-13-2017 06:59 PM)Kale_anonymous Wrote:  What do you guys think of the whole chaincoin situation?


What's to think about it?

Aren't there pumps all the time in the crypto space?

What do you think about it?

I did not even know that chaincoin existed until you mentioned it, and then I looked it up on http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ with a ranking of about 52 and that it is a coin with a supposed $60 million market cap and a 4,000% price appreciation in the past week.

It's not unusual that some random coin will get pumped while the market is flat for the rest or even while the others are depreciating.. You buying it?


I just looked at chaincoin, again.

Wow... seems to be a classical example of a pump and dump, no?

currently, as I type, a $8.5 million market cap. that is a 4000% rise in price in the beginning of the month.. and then 85% drop in about the next week.

I don't know who made money on this, but surely there were a lot of opportunities for "insiders" to fuck around. First of all how you going to get in and then once you get in, how you going to get out? in other words, regular folks tend to get screwed by these kinds of pump and dumps, even though they might look good.. but how do you actually play them to your advantage when we have likely shenanigans going on?

And, how much time do we have to be chasing around and attempting to monitor these various random coins that get pumped to shit and then to get out before they get dumped to shit.. and repeat cycle?
07-22-2017 04:23 PM
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Post: #4742
RE: The Bitcoin thread
On a phone. Can't quote easily. This article is discussing some Aug 1 date regarding Bitcoin and making it easier to use (developers are at odds with the miners over this). Apparently this guy thinks it could cause massive selling before the date.

http://www.naturalnews.com/2017-07-22-ma...xpert.html

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07-23-2017 12:11 PM
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Post: #4743
RE: The Bitcoin thread
There WAS massive selling in bitcoin just a week ago. There might be more, we're not out of the woods yet, but I don't see any reference in the article to it, because the article is referencing an interview done on July 9th, before the selloff.

Here's what's been happening in bitcoin land over the past week.

Let me see if this embed works...

[Image: OD8g7VDE]

Edit: Holy shit it does! Man tradingview is so amazing. I feel like I should sign up for a subscription just because holy shit that's nice software.
(This post was last modified: 07-23-2017 12:33 PM by SamuelBRoberts.)
07-23-2017 12:33 PM
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Post: #4744
RE: The Bitcoin thread
There are dynamics that move quickly in the bitcoin space - so of course, we have both upwards and downwards price pressures - for example, even though the market had considered the approximate July 20 locking in of BIP91 to be bullish - and even to have an ongoing upwards pressure on bitcoin prices, at the same time we have continued shenanigans and posturing that are threatening various kinds of forks - and suggestions that the hard forks might be able to take a large majority of Bitcoin's mining power.

I take a lot of these hardfork threats with a grain of salt both in terms of whether they are going to occur and whether they are going to come anywhere near their claimed ability to get miners or other economic actors to follow them... So in that regard, we have to take each of these dynamics with a grain of salt in figuring out our strategies. If you are waiting for a downtrend to make any kind of investment, you might well get left out and therefore, it frequently seems better, including these days, to consider some kind of incrementalist approach.

So, on an individual level, what you going to do? How much do you have in and what is going to be your preparation for price movements that can go in either direction? accounting for whether you believe the odds are more down than they are up, and still there is no 100% in crypto.. so gotta consider that too...
07-23-2017 03:49 PM
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Post: #4745
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-23-2017 03:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  There are dynamics that move quickly in the bitcoin space - so of course, we have both upwards and downwards price pressures - for example, even though the market had considered the approximate July 20 locking in of BIP91 to be bullish - and even to have an ongoing upwards pressure on bitcoin prices, at the same time we have continued shenanigans and posturing that are threatening various kinds of forks - and suggestions that the hard forks might be able to take a large majority of Bitcoin's mining power.

I take a lot of these hardfork threats with a grain of salt both in terms of whether they are going to occur and whether they are going to come anywhere near their claimed ability to get miners or other economic actors to follow them... So in that regard, we have to take each of these dynamics with a grain of salt in figuring out our strategies. If you are waiting for a downtrend to make any kind of investment, you might well get left out and therefore, it frequently seems better, including these days, to consider some kind of incrementalist approach.

So, on an individual level, what you going to do? How much do you have in and what is going to be your preparation for price movements that can go in either direction? accounting for whether you believe the odds are more down than they are up, and still there is no 100% in crypto.. so gotta consider that too...

Jay, buddy, I hate to say it, but this post says absolutely nothing. "There are upwards and downwards price pressures" is the kind of stupid bullshit that corporations put into their financial disclaimers to cover their asses. In a context like this it's completely useless.
Watch this:

If anyone on this board is unaware of the fact that there are upwards and downwards price pressures in a stock market, liquidate your holdings NOW and get out entirely until you've done some basic reading.

See how absolutely no one liquidated their holdings? Because everyone in this thread, everyone on this forum, everyone in the WORLD knows that there are upwards and downwards pressures on stocks. Some things make them go up. Some things make them go down. Everyone knows this.

The same with utterly useless statements like, "There is no 100% in Crypto." This is not useful information.

Your long, dense, and mostly unreadable posts are driving off members who would otherwise contribute, except they first have to wade through your interminable essays. We had some really good technical analysis people in the thread, they all ran off now because they didn't want to read junk.

Stop insulting the other members' intelligence with obvious statements. Stop making these posts.
07-23-2017 04:50 PM
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Post: #4746
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-23-2017 04:50 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(07-23-2017 03:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  There are dynamics that move quickly in the bitcoin space - so of course, we have both upwards and downwards price pressures - for example, even though the market had considered the approximate July 20 locking in of BIP91 to be bullish - and even to have an ongoing upwards pressure on bitcoin prices, at the same time we have continued shenanigans and posturing that are threatening various kinds of forks - and suggestions that the hard forks might be able to take a large majority of Bitcoin's mining power.

I take a lot of these hardfork threats with a grain of salt both in terms of whether they are going to occur and whether they are going to come anywhere near their claimed ability to get miners or other economic actors to follow them... So in that regard, we have to take each of these dynamics with a grain of salt in figuring out our strategies. If you are waiting for a downtrend to make any kind of investment, you might well get left out and therefore, it frequently seems better, including these days, to consider some kind of incrementalist approach.

So, on an individual level, what you going to do? How much do you have in and what is going to be your preparation for price movements that can go in either direction? accounting for whether you believe the odds are more down than they are up, and still there is no 100% in crypto.. so gotta consider that too...

Jay, buddy, I hate to say it, but this post says absolutely nothing. "There are upwards and downwards price pressures" is the kind of stupid bullshit that corporations put into their financial disclaimers to cover their asses. In a context like this it's completely useless.
Watch this:

If anyone on this board is unaware of the fact that there are upwards and downwards price pressures in a stock market, liquidate your holdings NOW and get out entirely until you've done some basic reading.

See how absolutely no one liquidated their holdings? Because everyone in this thread, everyone on this forum, everyone in the WORLD knows that there are upwards and downwards pressures on stocks. Some things make them go up. Some things make them go down. Everyone knows this.

The same with utterly useless statements like, "There is no 100% in Crypto." This is not useful information.

Your long, dense, and mostly unreadable posts are driving off members who would otherwise contribute, except they first have to wade through your interminable essays. We had some really good technical analysis people in the thread, they all ran off now because they didn't want to read junk.

Stop insulting the other members' intelligence with obvious statements. Stop making these posts.


Seems that your opinion and framework differs from mine.

As you know, my repeated framework tends to deal with discussions of probabilities that are based on recent price dynamics.

Yes, if we are talking about the past we can more likely talk in terms of 100% certainties... even though sometimes guys differ on those kinds of past assessments.

If we are talking about the future, it is good to discuss in terms of a framework, probabilities and to provide timelines for such.

Maybe you disagree and do not employ similar discussion frameworks or maybe you don't understand the framework because it does not align with your thinking?

Despite your different ways of assessing matters and your stated opposition to my stylistic framework, I don't see any reason to change my approach or my way of thinking about these kinds of matters. By the way, even my thinking and framing has evolved over the years, yet I am not opposed to differing frameworks.

You know that in part my post was responding to your earlier post, and I was attempting to get some kind of sense for what direction you are predicting for BTC. Are you willing to share your prediction instead of getting caught up in seeming stylistic irrelevancies?

In your earlier post, are you saying that we are going down, up or sideways? What is the timeline for such possible price movements? What level of probabilities would you assign to any of the possible directions?

Even if my last post did not assign any specific direction or probabilities, I provide these kinds of details frequently, even if they are in terms of probabilities.. and discussion of the price dynamics... so what are you predicting? Anything? or you just want to continue to erroneously assert that my posts have no value merely because you seem to be having troubles with either their content and/or style?
07-23-2017 05:17 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #4747
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Even if my last post did not assign any specific direction or probabilities, I provide these kinds of details frequently, even if they are in terms of probabilities.. and discussion of the price dynamics... so what are you predicting? Anything? or you just want to continue to erroneously assert that my posts have no value merely because you seem to be having troubles with either their content and/or style?

They have no content. They're just a giant swamp of words, that sucks people in and before you know it they've wasted 5 minutes listening to you tell them nothing.

In your earlier post, are you saying that we are going down, up or sideways? What is the timeline for such possible price movements? What level of probabilities would you assign to any of the possible directions?
OK, now we're getting somewhere!
Most probable outcomes as I see them right now...
1.) BTC: Down to the 2500$ level, which is EXACTLY the fib retracement from the last high, and then break the ATH. Where it goes from there I have no fucking clue. 3.8k? 10k? 500k? Who the fuck knows?
2.) ETH: I think will go sideways for a long time. It's been a victim of the fact that the smartcontract idea is too easily copied; any programmer who's getting into this space would much rather start their OWN ICO, and make the absolutely goofy amounts of money that come with it, than add another zero to Vitalik's bank account. Shapeshift.io took ETH's first mover advantage and torn it into tiny pieces, then painted the walls with its blood.
3.) LTC: Will continue to cost between 41 and 48 dollars, inflation adjusted, until the end of time.
07-23-2017 06:12 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #4748
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Even if my last post did not assign any specific direction or probabilities, I provide these kinds of details frequently, even if they are in terms of probabilities.. and discussion of the price dynamics... so what are you predicting? Anything? or you just want to continue to erroneously assert that my posts have no value merely because you seem to be having troubles with either their content and/or style?

They have no content. They're just a giant swamp of words, that sucks people in and before you know it they've wasted 5 minutes listening to you tell them nothing.

Good for you to come to such an assessment regarding lack of value. Therefore, you should not have any problem either skimming such posts or ignoring them in their entirety.

Oh? You don't want that. You would prefer to get caught up on nonsense about style and to assert that no RVF guys are going to find value merely because you don't?


(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  In your earlier post, are you saying that we are going down, up or sideways? What is the timeline for such possible price movements? What level of probabilities would you assign to any of the possible directions?
OK, now we're getting somewhere!

I talk about this shit all the time, so don't try to act like it is the first time that I mentioned it, merely because you find some lacking in directness from me.


(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Most probable outcomes as I see them right now...
1.) BTC: Down to the 2500$ level, which is EXACTLY the fib retracement from the last high, and then break the ATH.

Well you are more brave than me to assess more than one leg. About a day ago, I had assessed our current trading range to be between about $2600 and $2,950.. so from my point of view, we are floating in the range to retest ATH resistance (of $3k) at any time. So, yeah, at this time, no need to get excited until we break either to the upside or the downside.

Your assessment of $2500 is only slightly below the range that I am suggesting and so I am not even sure if that is quite to the level of a break down.. so I would assess that if we break support below $2600-ish (and maybe we are talking nearly the same thing here), then $2300-ish would be fair game.

(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Where it goes from there I have no fucking clue. 3.8k? 10k? 500k? Who the fuck knows?

I think that you are right regarding the uncertainties, but we can still talk about probabilities.. so yeah I am tentatively assessing resistance in the $3400 to $3600 territory and then next in the $4k to $6k territory and then in the $8k to $12k territory and then in the $16000 to $20k territory...

Anyhow, it seems a bit doubtful to have any straight shot to any of those levels - but it remains true that crypto has tendencies to overshoot expectations... and also even if $3400 to $3600 has decent chances, at the moment, if any of us attempt to figure out the next leg, then we are delving into a lot of unknowns - even though I have no problem considering assessments that attempt to project further down the line and to provide reasons for such.. .and of course, more than some mere reference to a chart.



(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  2.) ETH: I think will go sideways for a long time. It's been a victim of the fact that the smartcontract idea is too easily copied; any programmer who's getting into this space would much rather start their OWN ICO, and make the absolutely goofy amounts of money that come with it, than add another zero to Vitalik's bank account. Shapeshift.io took ETH's first mover advantage and torn it into tiny pieces, then painted the walls with its blood.

I don't know. We may be on a similar page with some of this thinking about ETH. Not only does ETH have a very recent outrageous exponential growth amount that has not been corrected, it also has a lot of scammy projects that are built on it in addition to the other reasons that you stated.

I am having troubles understanding, exactly what you mean by flat. You mean between $150 and $300 ? I have troubles with flat because there is so much money in the space, but I guess that I am not sure, except for my mere feeling that ETH needs to have a correction that is greater than it has been before it is ready to move up... but hey I have been proclaiming that ETH is overvalued since about $20.. and so goes to show how much I had under-appreciated it's pump potential in the past. We could easily get a couple more years of ETH pumping - and in cryptolandia, a couple of years is an eternity.

(07-23-2017 06:12 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  3.) LTC: Will continue to cost between 41 and 48 dollars, inflation adjusted, until the end of time.

hahahaha.. could be.

With this segwit fiasco in bitcoin, I think that LTC had proven to be a decent potential real world testbed for BTC projects, which is valuable - however, now that segwit seems likely to go through in BTC, gosh who knows how much immediate value there is for LTC, in terms of it seeming to be the most closely relative that is no longer as distinguishable from the real deal BTC. So, I don't know, it could have its moments of correction back down to $20 and pumps up to $100? One thing with a 20x lower market cap and likely quite a fraction of fewer liquidation avenues, as compared with BTC, LTC would be easier to pump and dump than bitcoin... so who knows what some whale malipulators may attempt regarding LTC prices.
07-23-2017 06:46 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #4749
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Specifically what I am predicting, based on... very little actually, but it's fun to put these predictions in writing and see how well you match up.

[Image: x0cXMDau]
07-24-2017 02:28 AM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #4750
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I for one am not selling. My strategy has been buy and hold, and I am sticking to it.
07-24-2017 10:19 AM
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