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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7276
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-05-2018 08:04 AM)semibaron Wrote:  
(12-05-2018 08:02 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  BTC doesn't have to "death spiral", whatever that means, for you to lose astonishing amounts of money on it.

What we are looking for is volatility. That's why we love BTC. The good thing, since there are derivates out, one can short BTC and profit even while it's going down.

Yes, on the short term, volatility causes really decent means to make money, and using leverage (or margin, or shorting) can increase the possible price directions of profiting, including magnifying both the ability to long and to short - but that does not mean that margin trading is a good idea.. especially if a lot of money is already possible to be made in bitcoin using more conservative strategies - including dollar cost averaging, buying on dips, accumulating and HODLing.

Margin trading takes a lot more skills, practice and likely investment of time that guys might not have or be ready, willing or able to adequately develop.


(12-05-2018 08:10 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Except you can't do that at any decent leverage because the Bart spikes will kill you.

I know that I have made efforts at busting your balls on the topic of dollar cost averaging in some of my prior posts based, in part, on your posting a thread about the topic, pertaining to BTC. I just keep thinking that either you don't believe in what you posted, your opinion has changed or your thinking has "evolved" on the dollar cost average topic.

I believe that I also accused you of either not understanding nor attempting to employ any reasonable long term dollar cost averaging strategy that you seemed to have otherwise decently described an defended in that thread.

Of course there are all kinds of discussions about the benefits of dollar cost averaging, and even within this thread, yet below is a link to a nice little contemporary presentation of some dollar cost averaging dynamics.... also note that in the end of the article, the author seems to aptly assert that dollar cost averaging is a good plan for bitcoin, but not necessarily too smart in regards to other cryptos (aka shit coins) (hahahahahaha .. a nice little bonus touch that might help save some folks (who are willing to be saved) from their confusion about differentiations of bitcoin from the crypto space).

https://medium.com/@homeytel/dollar-cost...81204ae272
12-05-2018 03:48 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #7277
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-05-2018 03:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I know that I have made efforts at busting your balls on the topic of dollar cost averaging in some of my prior posts based, in part, on your posting a thread about the topic, pertaining to BTC. I just keep thinking that either you don't believe in what you posted, your opinion has changed or your thinking has "evolved" on the dollar cost average topic.

Correct. I took the link to that thread out of my sig because I no longer believe it's a good idea and don't want to be responsible for people's lost money. I announced as much, either in this thread or the lounge thread.

It's a bad idea in what's likely to be a multi-year bear market.

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12-06-2018 01:27 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7278
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 01:27 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(12-05-2018 03:48 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I know that I have made efforts at busting your balls on the topic of dollar cost averaging in some of my prior posts based, in part, on your posting a thread about the topic, pertaining to BTC. I just keep thinking that either you don't believe in what you posted, your opinion has changed or your thinking has "evolved" on the dollar cost average topic.

Correct. I took the link to that thread out of my sig because I no longer believe it's a good idea and don't want to be responsible for people's lost money. I announced as much, either in this thread or the lounge thread.

It's a bad idea in what's likely to be a multi-year bear market.

I don't see why you would be responsible for the choices of other guys, and surely guys can disagree about whether DCA is a good or a bad strategy, even though it is revered in investing circles (including traditional investing circles) as a good and sound long term strategy.

I certainly only recommend it for bitcoin, and not other cryptos, but guys might reasonably come to different conclusions about the applicability of such strategy to other cryptos. I take no responsibility for the choices of other guys, even though I make such recommendations. Guys have to take responsibility for their own decisions and strategies.

This may be a bit of a repeated assertion, but Dollar cost averaging tends to be a good strategy if you believe that long term the asset is going to be worth more in the future (even if in the short term or medium term there could be a lot of volatility and even downward movements in price). No one knows the answer to the direction of the price, but if you have a pretty good idea that there is going to be a long bear market, then you could wait for lower prices, but you might end up being wrong and then miss out.

Overall, if you don't believe in the long run viability of the asset that you are investing in, then probably you should not be investing into it, anyhow, and you can always reassess at various points along the way. In the case of bitcoin, there has already been an 80-83% correction, so that could be considered as well, but you are correct that there is a chance of more and very long bear market and even 70% or more correciton from here, even though I conclude that the odds of such extension and such depth is not likely there are a lot of people (along with you) that believe that the bitcoin winter could be quite a bit longer and deeper from here...

Anyhow if you don't have some longer term bullishness about an asset and you still choose to invest in it in a less systematic way than dollar cost averaging, then such approach might be considered gambling rather than investing.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2018 01:43 AM by JayJuanGee.)
12-06-2018 01:42 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
If someone told you Bitcoin would go to 100k, but to make it happen you needed to write 5 posts that weren't rambling walls of nonsense, do you think you could do it?

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12-06-2018 05:51 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 05:51 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  If someone told you Bitcoin would go to 100k, but to make it happen you needed to write 5 posts that weren't rambling walls of nonsense, do you think you could do it?

You are so profound, Sam.

The reality of the substantive matter (rather than your seemingly distraction comment) is merely that we currently disagree about the extent to which dollar cost averaging is currently a good practice/strategy in regards to bitcoin.

RVF guys who are currently reading this thread, may be interested in such a substantive discussions of bitcoin and strategies rather personal attack distractions. You think?
12-06-2018 10:24 AM
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HD668B Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 10:24 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The reality of the substantive matter (rather than your seemingly distraction comment) is merely that we currently disagree about the extent to which dollar cost averaging is currently a good practice/strategy in regards to bitcoin.

The reality is averaging is never considered a good practice in trading. Just like martingale. And I am a former trader.
Doesn't mean I am not interested in Bitcoin tho.

On a side note, anybody here trading crypto in a SERIOUS way? Basically making a living of it? I have access to biggest exchanges API as I am developing HFT strategies executed by bots.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2018 11:09 AM by HD668B.)
12-06-2018 11:06 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #7282
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
3700 is the new 6500 I think trading bots are keeping it alive.
12-06-2018 11:09 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread


12-06-2018 03:45 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 11:06 AM)HD668B Wrote:  
(12-06-2018 10:24 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The reality of the substantive matter (rather than your seemingly distraction comment) is merely that we currently disagree about the extent to which dollar cost averaging is currently a good practice/strategy in regards to bitcoin.

The reality is averaging is never considered a good practice in trading. Just like martingale. And I am a former trader.
Doesn't mean I am not interested in Bitcoin tho.

On a side note, anybody here trading crypto in a SERIOUS way? Basically making a living of it? I have access to biggest exchanges API as I am developing HFT strategies executed by bots.


I don't know what you mean by trading because I am not referring to dollar cost averaging only in terms of trading, but instead in terms of a strategy for investing into an asset long term.... likely I already said, so long as you are bullish about it long term which may or may not end up being a correct assessment. Furthermore, you can employ dollar cost averaging investing and also other strategies too.

Martingale method is a gambling strategy, and of course, bitcoin naysayers like to refer to such strategy during BTC correction periods in order to proclaim that is the strategy being employed when investing into bitcoin while the price is going down... which is not an accurate generalization, even though there may be some folks who consider their investments in terms of gambling, including employing a kind of martingale method to their buying approach.
12-06-2018 03:52 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 11:09 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  3700 is the new 6500 I think trading bots are keeping it alive.

You talking about this from an academic perspective, el mech, or do you have any kind of stake or plan in regards to you and BTC? Seems like you sold the vast majority of your BTC in the $600-ish territory, or no?

Currently, the way you are describing the BTC situation, could be going down to zero? or you have some other price target in mind?

By the way, with your assessment of what is "alive" in regards to bitcoin, recall in 2015, there were times that BTC had a market cap of less than $4billion.. and currently, BTC's market cap is a bit over $60 billion...

Of course, in December 2017, bitcoin peaked with a market cap of at over $300 Billion, yet I am not sure that life of bitcoin depends on market cap, exactly, and if we are considering price, then $1k per BTC was pretty good in January 2017 - and it is possible that BTC price could go back to $1k-ish, but I doubt that even $1k would be death of bitcoin instead of perhaps indicating a longer period of down BTC prices (if such $1k prices were to occur).
12-06-2018 06:03 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Bots can't keep prices up, if they could they would've kept it up at 20k and we'd all be millionaries.

It's declined like 30% in a month, it needs some time before the next leg down hits.

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12-07-2018 12:27 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-06-2018 10:24 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The reality of the substantive matter (rather than your seemingly distraction comment) is merely that we currently disagree about the extent to which dollar cost averaging is currently a good practice/strategy in regards to bitcoin.

RVF guys who are currently reading this thread, may be interested in such a substantive discussions of bitcoin and strategies rather personal attack distractions. You think?

No, because they all find you annoying and nobody enjoys reading your posts. They'd be super happy if you stopped posting, honestly. We all would.



(12-06-2018 11:06 AM)HD668B Wrote:  The reality is averaging is never considered a good practice in trading. Just like martingale. And I am a former trader.
Doesn't mean I am not interested in Bitcoin tho.

On a side note, anybody here trading crypto in a SERIOUS way? Basically making a living of it? I have access to biggest exchanges API as I am developing HFT strategies executed by bots.

Averaging is nice for long-term investments (Every 401k is basically a dollar cost average) as well as a being a low-stress, easy way to invest for inexperienced people who want exposure to BTC without having to really understand how markets work. That's about it, it's not something you use if you're taking this stuff seriously.

As to your question, I did it seriously for a while, but honestly the rewards aren't there at the moment and the volatility is high enough that it's just not a good idea. Unless you have enough capital that you can do low leverage trading and still make a reasonable amount of money, which puts you in a group where you shouldn't be taking advice off of message board people.

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12-07-2018 01:15 AM
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Graft Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
If BTC goes much lower, to $2000 and below, it will moon when there is appropriate infrastructure to lure guys with a few million to throw a few bucks at it. I doubt most of the alt coin investors were rich, probably guys throwing 4 to five figures at it. When a doctor with $5 mil in the bank can tell his advisor at JP Morgan to throw 100k "fuck it money" at it, or hedge fund millions, the price will definitely go crazy. There is too much money to be made to avoid it if it's 90% off and can hit a 10x on a major capital investment.

The BAKKT service can be a real winner, the founders have been very successful with the NYSE and major projects. Their service will provide major infrastructure for larger investors.

Don't underestimate crypto, much smaller money was ejected into the system than when there is a stock bubble. There is also the probability that some whales pumped up the price a year ago, and now are waiting with all that capital that they sold to re-enter and make a killing twice. You want to catch that second wave because that's where you can make a killing too.
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2018 04:06 AM by Graft.)
12-09-2018 04:02 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Speaking of the Second Wave.... "Fiat is Dying and Blockchain is the Future" ...Clif High

From someone who is a far-out genius and NOT a Q-fanboy - Summary of Current Global Anglosphere Webbot AI Predictive Linguistics Analytics Summary

WARNING - Not Too Kind to Q stuff - actually aggravated he had to update/rewrite many of his algorithms to eliminate all the Deep State Q clutter/crap/garbage disinformation he has to filter out to get to USEFUL actionable intelligence and research.

Clif High's BTC and Market Predictive Linguistics Webbot Charts and Latest Summary

For Details see: https://youtu.be/13SzAcsVQUg Dec 5 2018...
Shared with Clif's Permission...
Chart 1
image.png

Takeaways: BTC Trades down to Low 1215.2 late summer 2019 then Panic Buying of BTC etc due to Major Gov (EU?Zone) Collapse. 2018/19 Harsh/Brutal Winter -2019/2020 Deadly Fatal Winter... Blockchain Going Corporate - Fiat Currency "Dieing" based upon the Language in the Global Anglo Web Crowd filtered by his AI Webbot Technology...

Of course, his rather unorthodox Disclaimer is since he is a Lunatic you would be an Idiot to trade on this and the only thing worse is the Bat Shit Crazy MSM idiots continuing to go off the Rails - Will release next report when his Temporal Markers - a dozen or so confirm in Jan/Feb 2019...

Chart 2:
image.png

The images are screenscraped from his Chart 1 and Chart 2 in his 5Dec2018 video link above...

I am not going to Doxx myself by uploading the images to Google Images because then I have to use my real Google account unless someone knows where I can upload anonymous images that are not PORN sites. Or PM me for Chart 1 and Chart 2... Or just watch his video and do your own screen captures and image edits.

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(This post was last modified: 12-09-2018 06:17 AM by Deepdiver.)
12-09-2018 06:02 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #7290
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-09-2018 04:02 AM)Graft Wrote:  If BTC goes much lower, to $2000 and below, it will moon when there is appropriate infrastructure to lure guys with a few million to throw a few bucks at it. I doubt most of the alt coin investors were rich, probably guys throwing 4 to five figures at it. When a doctor with $5 mil in the bank can tell his advisor at JP Morgan to throw 100k "fuck it money" at it, or hedge fund millions, the price will definitely go crazy. There is too much money to be made to avoid it if it's 90% off and can hit a 10x on a major capital investment.

The BAKKT service can be a real winner, the founders have been very successful with the NYSE and major projects. Their service will provide major infrastructure for larger investors.

It's a possibility, yeah. Even if you're not in the market right now, you're being negligent if you don't at least keep an eye on it.

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12-09-2018 06:29 AM
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Post: #7291
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Clif high has been wrong too many times, his calls are as bad as any. France or other EU countries have the euro to fall back on. I don't think they'd turn to Bitcoin. 1215 for summer 2019 seems really low, Im guessing ETF was never approved and BAKKT was cash settled.
12-09-2018 07:57 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-09-2018 04:02 AM)Graft Wrote:  The BAKKT service can be a real winner, the founders have been very successful with the NYSE and major projects. Their service will provide major infrastructure for larger investors.

As with anything, I'm cautious to be overly bullish on BAKKT. We don't know enough about it to confirm that it'll meet all our hopes and dreams, and it's still possible that it doesn't launch in the next year.

However - whoever can launch the a rigorous, insured, and tested custody solution will win. That's what it'll take to get "fuck it" investments like Graft suggests.

Right now there are a few options out there but nothing that meets mainstream standards.

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12-09-2018 08:30 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
You gotta wait and hold at least 5 years on this to be an interesting asset class.

I believe the melt up is real, and markets will soar. No one will have time for BTC during that. With the decline, then it will be huge and thought of when the non equity buying millenials move in.

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12-11-2018 09:54 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-11-2018 09:54 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  You gotta wait and hold at least 5 years on this to be an interesting asset class.

I believe the melt up is real, and markets will soar. No one will have time for BTC during that. With the decline, then it will be huge and thought of when the non equity buying millenials move in.

Are you talking about 5 years if you started buying BTC today? Or 5 years if you started buying at $19,666 (a year ago)?

I doubt that any guy who started to buy BTC earlier, whether one year ago or some other kind of time frame, just sits on his BTC investment, but instead, there are a few things that he might do 1) attempt to strategically buy more at various times (hopefully dips), 2) sell some hoping to buy lower 3) jump in and out and get distracted by various other coins that either claim to be better than bitcoin or to give higher short term returns than bitcoin or 4) some variation of the above.

My main point here is that I doubt that guys who look into bitcoin are just buying and waiting, and there is a likely a combination of strategies to the extent that they don't just bail and hope to wait for some other strategic time that may or may not come in their assessment of the situation.
12-11-2018 10:27 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I don't know what price it will have but having seen enough complex machinery I think the bitcoin network is far better designed then most and I don't think it will die as easily as people think.

Whether or not it will make you lambo rich I don't know and I don't think whomever came up with it cares either. Maybe it was part of the plan?
12-12-2018 01:26 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-07-2018 12:27 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Bots can't keep prices up

Yeah seems we have a misconception here about these magical bots. I am actually a bot coder and most of them are doing arbitrage right now. Because most crypto exchanges are still quite slow, and sometimes only accepting HTTP rest request instead of a non-stop tunnel connection like websocket (at bare minimum) , HFT or HighFrequencyTrading algos are hard to implement.

Oh and lets not forget the fees, on bitfinex for example with 0.2% twice for entering and exiting a trade, when BTC was at 6k I basically needed to be able to predict the next 30$ movement just to breakeven. Now that BTC is lower its actually better for me but still.
12-12-2018 06:45 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
A few people wrote me PMs about trading, especially crypto trading (note my Forex trading thread 8 years ago, represent), so I thought I'll just answer here.


Quote:I wanted to see what you thought about trading signal services.
I’m brand new to crypto and have been preparing to enter the market for a few months. I have my ledger nano s and a Binance account and have been trying to learn about TA and which coins have decent projects going on. Overall, I realize I’m not able to dedicate enough time to become an expert on this so I want to listen to some advisors and go from there (while still using my judgement and not necessarily blind trade from others).

TA is better than nothing, just dont fall into these computed indicators like RSI,MACD and stuff, they just cant predict well. Stick to basic Support + Resistance levels, Trendlines, and Volume per Price, and you are good to go.

Quote:I was looking for services and ran across https://www.cryptoadvisorypro.com/faq/

For $175 a year essentially I get all the trades from the top services. Ethically seems a bit wrong they are just forwarding others trades but what are your thoughts on taking 10% of my cash to try out a service like this for a few months?

My opinion on signal services is usually the same, if these guys are actually correctly predicting price, why would they give away their edge? 175$ a year is quite cheap imo if you can make thousand $ each time you trade a coin...

But you never know. Why not pay 1 month and see how their calls turn out? But yeah overall im not a big fan. The same was true in forex, if you were basically a good trader but could only breakeven or win 51% of the time, it was way more profitable to become an pro signal expert.

Quote:I’m leaning towards not doing the BitMEX margin trading and instead only exchange trading service.

Bitmex has a few advantages and disadvantages. I like that you only need a BTC adress, so you wont get stuck into some KYC/AML if you make 1 million $ profit lol
Also they have market maker negative fees, which is very very nice. Basically when you want to enter (and exit) a trade, always use limits order. That means you order is not executed instantly and goes into the orderbook, so you are basically providing liquidity. Instead of paying a trading fee now bitmex will actually pay you.

I’ve been watching a number of coins but I’m just gambling to say that I know when to enter a position or when to exit and for me that’s the stressful part. I feel like this might be a decent option.

Quote:Do you think now is a decent time to consider an entry into the market as well as I’m not very interested in going short yet?

Shorting crypto is quite dangerous indeed. Actually any kind of margin position is dangerous because of extreme volatility. Thats why I would stick to top 10 coins for margin, something like BTC on bitmex could be ok (especially because of their anti-spike protection which is the XBTUSD contract)

Quote:Do you think BitMEX is worth trading an insignificant amount to learn and use trade signals or is that suicide long terms as I’ll likely want to go bigger?

An insignificant amount of REAL MONEY is actually a great way to start. There is that psychological switch when you are trading real money. Emotions come into play, everything is different. Try to make enough to buy yourself a beer. Im telling you that beer will be delicious.
12-12-2018 06:58 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
If you want to trade Bitcoin I think it's worthwhile to take your time before you get to margin trading on BitMEX. It's trading on steroids, and is built to eat up beginners.

There's a few different "rungs" you can trade on before getting to 'MEX. Start with paper trading, then graduate to spot (long-only) trading. Once you have more confidence in your trading, start with a small amount on BitMEX to get used to the platform/going short.

Before trading ANY futures, options, or derivatives, make sure you read through all of the contract documentation so you understand exactly what's going on with the product you're trading.

And as always please use risk management and never risk more than 3% of your trading account on one trade. If you aren't calculating risk amount you shouldn't be trading.

Might be worthwhile to make a BTC Trading/Price thread, and keep this one focused on fundamentals. It's important for people to grasp the long-term proposition of Bitcoin before becoming traders imo.

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(This post was last modified: 12-12-2018 07:58 AM by redbeard.)
12-12-2018 07:56 AM
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Pinocchio Offline
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Posts: 348
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Post: #7299
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I think a separate BTC Trading/Price thread is good idea.
12-12-2018 01:20 PM
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Pinocchio Offline
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Posts: 348
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Post: #7300
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Was going to ask if anyone has managed to set APIs for Tradingview and Binance?
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2018 01:22 PM by Pinocchio.)
12-12-2018 01:22 PM
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