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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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Kid Twist Offline
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Post: #8226
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
^ That's what I'm saying, I own no BTC, so I'm not suggesting anything illegal or evading anything, just simply talking about what is done all over the world as a result of this technology that is not easily seized and/or may be a groundbreaking legal case when they try to come after guys like McAfee, etc.

Get your passport ready!
07-18-2019 09:55 PM
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Manbeline Offline
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Post: #8227
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I think you're going misinterpreting what I said, JJG. I didn't come here to challenge you about BTC. I just said I think it's stupid to tax for BTC acquisition, and then was curious why you felt that speaking against taxing BTC was going into the criminal act of tax evasion.
07-18-2019 10:00 PM
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Post: #8228
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
please bart back down BTC !!
07-18-2019 10:09 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #8229
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-18-2019 10:00 PM)Manbeline Wrote:  I think you're going misinterpreting what I said, JJG. I didn't come here to challenge you about BTC. I just said I think it's stupid to tax for BTC acquisition, and then was curious why you felt that speaking against taxing BTC was going into the criminal act of tax evasion.

Well, maybe you are misreading what I am saying and I am misreading of what you are saying based in part on bitcoin related experiences? You already know that this thread is about bitcoin, so I am not sure what more there might be to say, if you are not attempting to clarify some of your points in terms of bitcoin or your bitcoin experiences or your thinking about getting into bitcoin?

If you are not investing in getting into bitcoin, then maybe you want to just talk about it theoretically.;.. but that is a different question to talk about something theoretically or to talk about it from a place of experience. So I am not sure what you want to do, exactly? Are you invested at all into bitcoin, or thinking about investing into bitcoin, or shorting it or something?

I gave you my experiential perspective as someone who has been investing in bitcoin for more than 5.5 years and sharing information on this thread for that long and about a decently vast array of bitcoin related topics. My experiential based response should already seems to sufficiently outline why I said some of the things that I said, and maybe clarify some of the context, no?

Are you actually interested in bitcoin or investing in it or do you just want to talk about the various implications of bitcoin on a theoretical level? I'm not sure at this point.

Regarding the tax treatment of bitcoin it is going to vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, but generally the USA treats it as capital gains, so that brings some potential accounting complications when it comes to attempting to spend it. But acquisition of bitcoin does not generally create a tax event, but there are fees involved depending on if you are buying bitcoin directly from someone or on an exchange or acquiring it in some other way. Of course, there is mining of bitcoin too or earning bitcoin through rendering services. The tax implications are going to vary, so sometimes it is not clear to make blanket statements about what are fees and what are taxes and how that seems to currently vary depending on circumstances and location.

If you are saying that you want the law to change that is one thing that may or may not happen in the near term, and surely some jurisdictions are getting used to BTC, while historically there were some jurisdictions that were attempting to battle BTC more. That jurisdictional variation still exists but is a moving target and some of the congressional attention this week could cause some jurisdictions to rethink their treatment of bitcoin whether for tax purposes or otherwise.

Surely, it seems to me that it would not be a smart thing to go around, perhaps like McAfee spouting out that you are not going to comply with any laws, and in his case he sometimes talks out of both sides of his mouth, but it seems that he is referring to believing that the federal tax laws are without authority over this subject matter or they don't apply to him. That is a more complicated position for any guy to take, and has potential costs, especially for younger guys who might not want to be attempting to run from the law all of their lives, like the current choice that McAfee seems to be making (in his mid-70s).

If you are an individual who is investing in BTC, or looking at the matter from an investment perspective, there might be other questions of compliance or whatever rather than wanting the law to change, and just other ways of considering how to approach an investment in BTC from that experiential level, and yes, you can comply with the law (or attempt to) and want the law to change at the same time, but it is sometimes not so easy to present all the theoretical arguments or even to be interested in those theoretical laws that wish for the laws to be different if you are looking at bitcoin from a perspective of someone who is also complying because he is invested.
07-18-2019 11:37 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #8230
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-18-2019 09:55 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  ^ That's what I'm saying, I own no BTC, so I'm not suggesting anything illegal or evading anything, just simply talking about what is done all over the world as a result of this technology that is not easily seized and/or may be a groundbreaking legal case when they try to come after guys like McAfee, etc.

That is a fair enough clarification that you do not own any BTC, so you seem to be considering BTC as a non-owner of it.

Many people who do not own any BTC at all or have not invested into it at all attempt to make simplified assertions regarding how bitcoin is being used, even suggesting that bitcoin is being used more illegally than other means of value transfer.... I am not saying that you are doing this, but it is a common theme amongst no coiners.

But yeah, in terms of some of the theoretical aspects and the novelty of 1) custody 2) trying to prove a negative or 3) attempting to get compliance, these can be difficult questions regarding how the law is going to treat this from case to case, and if a court tells someone to give over value that he might not have, then there can be difficulties with that. Sometimes a court will still order the value is owed, whether or not the person being judged against really does have access to the value... so yeah, that can make for complications, too, and whether more laws need to be passed might be unclear.. the court already has some tools for this, including holding people in contempt who might not have access to something that they are judged to be having access to.
07-18-2019 11:45 PM
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Post: #8231
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-18-2019 10:09 PM)randomA Wrote:  please bart back down BTC !!

hahahahaha

Are we back in this stage again?

We already know that sometimes bitcoin goes up and does not come back down to price levels that you previously had experienced.

In that regard, hopefully you are prepared for either direction, including that bitcoin's price might not come back down.

I presume that you are thinking about 4 digit prices? Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a BIG MEANIE, because I do think that the odds are pretty decent, such as greater than 50% that we will see 4 digit prices again in the next month or two, but I have no damned idea how low or for how long, yet also if the odds are only greater than 50%, then they are also pretty decent that 4 digits might never occur again.

Bitcoin price dynamics: An ever present story of who knows?
07-18-2019 11:50 PM
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Dr. Howard Away
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Post: #8232
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-18-2019 11:50 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-18-2019 10:09 PM)randomA Wrote:  please bart back down BTC !!

hahahahaha

Are we back in this stage again?

We already know that sometimes bitcoin goes up and does not come back down to price levels that you previously had experienced.

In that regard, hopefully you are prepared for either direction, including that bitcoin's price might not come back down.

I presume that you are thinking about 4 digit prices? Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a BIG MEANIE, because I do think that the odds are pretty decent, such as greater than 50% that we will see 4 digit prices again in the next month or two, but I have no damned idea how low or for how long, yet also if the odds are only greater than 50%, then they are also pretty decent that 4 digits might never occur again.

Bitcoin price dynamics: An ever present story of who knows?

I finally put my toe in the water and bought in when it went under 10k. Not a lot mind you, but now I'm officially "in the game".

Why do the heathen rage and the people imagine a vain thing? Psalm 2:1 KJV
07-19-2019 06:59 AM
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Post: #8233
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-19-2019 06:59 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  
(07-18-2019 11:50 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-18-2019 10:09 PM)randomA Wrote:  please bart back down BTC !!

hahahahaha

Are we back in this stage again?

We already know that sometimes bitcoin goes up and does not come back down to price levels that you previously had experienced.

In that regard, hopefully you are prepared for either direction, including that bitcoin's price might not come back down.

I presume that you are thinking about 4 digit prices? Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to be a BIG MEANIE, because I do think that the odds are pretty decent, such as greater than 50% that we will see 4 digit prices again in the next month or two, but I have no damned idea how low or for how long, yet also if the odds are only greater than 50%, then they are also pretty decent that 4 digits might never occur again.

Bitcoin price dynamics: An ever present story of who knows?

I finally put my toe in the water and bought in when it went under 10k. Not a lot mind you, but now I'm officially "in the game".

Great.. Yeah, you don't have to buy much, and surely that is going to give you a much better grasp on keeping track of things in a kind of interactive way.

The commentary from some of those government officials during the hearings show that the education of folks on what is bitcoin has come a long way, in spite of a lot of misinformation in the media over the years.

Even maintaining something like $50 per month in a dollar cost averaging kind of way, would likely pay off quite grandly over 5-10 years... depending on if you have that much of a timeline... and also that much of a budget to spare.. and likely a decent hedge against some other investments that you might have, too. But, hey, surely a personal choice and some people take a while to get over some of their inner hostilities, and you could end up losing everything, even though dollar cost averaging does tend to be a decent long term strategy.

Regarding my earlier prediction about over 50% odds of going back into 4 digits, I would like to revise that to greater than 65%, but that is just my ballpark current idea which sometimes can change erratically over hours of witnessing what appears to be changes in short term price momentum. Blush
07-19-2019 08:30 AM
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Post: #8234
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-18-2019 06:19 PM)Manbeline Wrote:  
(07-18-2019 12:20 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  I've started to put some of my mandatory tax training courses into Crypto. Things I learned today which I did not know previously:

1. Trading one coin for another (BTC to ETH for example) is a taxable event
2. IRS Criminal division spent 1 million dollars on data miners to ID people using crypto
3. IRS Criminal enforcement is wrapping up most of its big time money launderer cases and will be passing the baton to just busting regular people (aka civil audits) once that work is done.

In short, keep good records! Via tax software or otherwise.

Ha, the jew is scared. Taxing crypto is the stupidest thing ever, especially since they are taxing you for their money instead of crypto money.

"We'll steal more of your USD for making money from BTC despite us not acknowledging it as an official currency."

Another few points that I was thinking with your seemingly pontificating post (above) that set off some of our later discussion. Think about what you said, Manbeline.

There are kind of three points of hatred and what seemed to be a kind of threaded through your post that could incentivize inaction in regards to bitcoin.

1) blame the jews for getting rich

2) government is controlling and taxing too much

3) the world is not fair in a variety of ways because of manipulation

I am thinking that a lot of times in this thread, I have been attempting to present ideas to help guys to empower themselves and to take responsibility when it comes to investing and actively studying bitcoin and dollar cost averaging into it, and in that regard, it is a much better position to be in, if you had ended up dollar cost averaging into an investment, such as bitcoin with even a small amount of extra money over 5-6 years or even fewer years, rather than worrying about whether the government would be taking some of your profits through taxes or that the jews are manipulating the system and the world is not fair.

I think that a lot of times, if guys work on themselves and their own self-improvements in spite of obstacles, and they can end up making a decent amount of their own freedoms and options and even if it might cost them more in taxes at various points in time when they are cashing in profits.

Long term capital gains taxes are 15% in the USA if you can structure your investment in that kind of a long term way, and let's say that you invest into something like bitcoin over many years, you end up having around $1k or $2k average cost per BTC, and for example, you had invested $30k over those many years, which could have been the case for guys who started investing in bitcoin at anytime in 2013, 2014, 2015 or 2016.

Of course, for the guys starting to invest in 2017, 2018 or 2019, the dynamics might be a bit different because the price is higher, but if these guys still are able to wait for several years, they still might be able to achieve some similar result as the guys who had begun to invest earlier. There are no real signs that bitcoin is any worse of an investment merely because its unit price is higher that it was several years earlier

Let's say when you cash out, you have about $330k of value your profits are 10x or 11x or something like that from your initial $30k investment.

So if you have to pay taxes on $300k, then you have to pay $300K x 15% = $45k in taxes, assuming that you cash out all of your profits at once, and then you would still have $255k worth of profits.

I don't really recommend cashing out all at once, because I have continued to be a long term investor in bitcoin and a long term thinker about the asset, and when I start to cash out of my own stash of bitcoin (perhaps a few years from now), I will probably be cashing out about 4% of my value per year, and for example, if I begin to believe that I might not be living very long, then I will probably ramp up my cashing out of my BTC stash in order that I can get utility out of my profits rather than passing down my profits (that would be preferable), and maybe start to cash out 12% per year or even more, depending on my perceptions of a projected timeline.

I am still thinking a couple more years before I begin to cash out though, and I am not going to blame banks, jews, or others for whatever I am doing or for any unfairnesses in regards to my bitcoin, the profits that I have earned around bitcoin or any cut that governments might take from me or certain other fees or expenses that I might have to incur (including having to hire an accountant or consultants), because I got into bitcoin with a decent amount of perspective that it may or may not pay off as an investment, or that it might only pay off equal to my other investments, but instead bitcoin has way outperformed my other investments (so far on paper), so if my BTC investment is currently more than 12x in profits, I cannot think of any other investment that I have had in my history that has done anywhere close to that well.

I actually have traditional investments that go back to the 80s and 90s and a kind of building of my investment portfolio over that time that included properties and 401ks and things like that, and if I look at those investments including a decent amount of passage of time with compounding interest, matching employer contributions and still those other investments do not even come close to the payoff of bitcoin.

I think that if I read a kind of optimistic scenario of my other investments, I have gotten about 4x or 5x return on all of my other investments over more than 30 years, which was about 5.5% per year average price appreciation.

So my 12x in profits in bitcoin in less than 6 years seems to be doing much better than those other investments, and personally, I believe that the bitcoin's appreciation has decent chances to continue to outperform my traditional investments.. that is my hunch... especially if I am looking at the next two years, and even more likely if I were able to project out another 6 years.

Every guy is still responsible for his own assessment of risk or decisions to invest, not to invest or how to allocate (and diversify) his investment over various asset classes including considering his cash flow, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, views of bitcoin as compared with other investments, and how much time and skills he has to put into managing his investments.
07-19-2019 07:51 PM
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rpg Offline
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Post: #8235
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Every day under $10,000 is a gift. Not sure why people get nervous. I am fully convinced BC is going ultra high in 10 to 15 years. When our country was founded there were some areas where prime farm country was going for 1 cent per acre. Now, that same land is $20,000 per acre and that is way off the beaten path. Huge gains in asset value is normal over long periods of time when there is continuous demand.
07-19-2019 11:45 PM
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Post: #8236
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-19-2019 11:45 PM)rpg Wrote:  Every day under $10,000 is a gift. Not sure why people get nervous. I am fully convinced BC is going ultra high in 10 to 15 years. When our country was founded there were some areas where prime farm country was going for 1 cent per acre. Now, that same land is $20,000 per acre and that is way off the beaten path. Huge gains in asset value is normal over long periods of time when there is continuous demand.

The longer your investment timeline, the more you could advantage from a kind of compounding aspect in which you will likely experience several spurts of growth.

In other words, I expect the future BTC price performance of bitcoin to play out somewhat like the past in terms of cycles of growth and retracement... of course, nothing is guaranteed, but there seems to be a kind of pattern that continues to play out and there really is not any bad news currently in bitcoin, including some of the seeming flow at this time from value in shitcoins to be flowing into bitcoin (and sure that is not guaranteed to continue, either)...

And, also guys may not even have to wait for 10 to 15 years, to profit from those kinds of cycles of growth that seem to somewhat coincide with halvening of BTC's supply, but they are also kind of periods of decently extreme up but still only small in the adoption with decent amounts of growth potential, even in the next couple of years we seem to be in a bull market, currently.

I do understand that younger guys might not have a lot of capital that they can invest, so sometimes they can feel that they are missing out because they might only have $100 per month or some more modest amount. I remember in my 20s, I used to invest low amounts like that. Of course, I was investing in traditional kinds of investments with lower returns, so taking on risk can be a bit concerning, yet even small amounts still can add up over time, so there can still be ways to invest modest amounts and come out decently better than if you had not invested at all...

Guys can decide, even perhaps to defer some gratification in terms of some of their purchases if they are kind of luxury items or even sometimes there are ways to slim the budget to increase abilities to invest higher portions and without breaking the guys in terms of lifestyle or luxury that might not be necessary.. the living within your means principles, will usually free up some investment abilities, too.
07-20-2019 12:14 AM
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MrLemon Offline
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Post: #8237
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
The whales that control bitcoin can take it to any price level they want, any time they want. They love to make the price gyrate...they do it absolutely on purpose. But the general trend is up, because they want to be ultra-billionaires. During that upward trend they will constantly stopping to shake out the weak players, going up and down and up and down to take money out of the pockets of the suckers.

You cannot predict the movement of price, ever, because it's intentionally made random by the whales. Any pattern you think you see is being put there, intentionally, by them, to lure you into making that stupid mistake that allows them to take your money. They have huge teams, massive software, absolute control, and if you think you can beat them, well good luck sucker.

The only way to win is to buy and hold no matter what. Then you are just along for the ride and they can't screw you.

Yes, sub-10k is a bonus round. Last chance you'll ever get. But what do I know.
07-20-2019 02:02 AM
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Post: #8238
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  The whales that control bitcoin can take it to any price level they want, any time they want.

That is a naive and simple perspective that is based on conspiracy and likely to NOT be true.

There is a decent amount of information that whales are going to attempt to manipulate as much as they can and for how long that they can, but there are whales on both sides.

There is also a decent amount of evidence that whales cannot get the price to go where they would like it to go, such as losing control over their ability to keep the price down. This happens on many occasions.


I will concede that frequently, especially if the volume is low, there will be times when the whales will periodically be able to keep the price within a price range for a decent amount of time, and they can more easily achieve such goals when the BTC trade volume remains low. If the trade volume picks up then it becomes impossible for them to continue to attempt to control the price range, change their position, go with the flow for a while and save their fight to keep the price within a different range for another day once the price stabilizes again and they are able to reestablish themselves.


(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  They love to make the price gyrate...they do it absolutely on purpose.

putting systems in place in order to take advantage of volatility and causing the volatility would be two different concepts, and not every whale is going to profit in every circumstances. Of course, any whale will make the most money when s/he is able to profit in the most circumstances possible. There could be times when a whale will take a loss in one position or attempt to move the price in a vast way by losing in the position, hope that others follow and take up the slack and be able to profit if the price continues to move in the direction that s/he attempted to cause. These efforts are not always successful, and sometimes they might be successful beyond expectations.

Don't get me wrong, of course, I agree with any conclusions that the more rich that you are then the more that you are able to manipulate the BTC prices, but even these abilities have limitations. There are rich people on both sides, and sometimes a rich whale is going to bite off more than s/he can chew and get reckt in the process of making an attempted manipulation.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  But the general trend is up, because they want to be ultra-billionaires.

Who the fuck knows? You are trying to lump too many kinds of whales together in order to create your conspiracy thesis.

Of course, anyone who develops a practice to accumulate BTC is going to do better during a bull market, and anyone who is shorting overall during a bear market should be able to do better.

There are likely whales who have profited in dollars, and have been quite pessimistic about BTC and its price, but still got into BTC and anticipating to pull out their wealth in dollars, but are not sure about when, exactly.

There are also long term holders who advantage overall because they hold, and some of those are whales too, but they are too afraid to sell their coins or maybe too ethical to attempt to engage in btc price manipulation behaviors with the stash that they have, even though they could if they wanted or if they had those kinds of talents and resources.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  During that upward trend they will constantly stopping to shake out the weak players, going up and down and up and down to take money out of the pockets of the suckers.

I doubt that these are always the same players, but sure sometimes the more professional whale traders are going to attempt to stay ahead of the game and try to profit as much as they can by staying ahead of where they believe the BTC price is going or where they can push the price, but this is not a constant, and they might even realize that at some point they are going to lose control of the price and they have contingencies for those situations, too. Still does not mean that they know in advance where the price is going to go or that whatever the fuck manipulation that they attempt to do is going to be successful in terms of personal profits to them.


(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  You cannot predict the movement of price, ever, because it's intentionally made random by the whales.

Sure there are going to be a decent amount of frequent times in which whales will purposeful manipulate BTC prices in the opposite direction in order to purposefully take advantage of bets that are stacking up in a certain direction... In that regard, they want to reck as many normies as they can, which they can cause regular people and those attempting to bite off more than they can chew in their trade to end up becoming emotional and to do the opposite of what they should do... and thereby in a general sense be able to profit on both ends of the price move that they end up causing with their whale status.. if they have a lot of coins or a lot of cash.. they are going to know how much they have in reserve and how much on how many exchanges and whether they have enough to attempt to manipulate past a certain point in order to cause the effect that they want. These abilities to manipulate are surely not constants or even held by the same whales at all times, as you seem to be suggesting.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  Any pattern you think you see is being put there, intentionally, by them, to lure you into making that stupid mistake that allows them to take your money.

Sure sometimes whales might be ahead of the game and to be able to create a condition and other times they might be able to take advantage of a condition that already exists, but that does NOT mean that they are always in front of the creation of the condition or even in a position at all times to take advantage of certain conditions that the market has created.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  They have huge teams, massive software, absolute control, and if you think you can beat them, well good luck sucker.

Sure they are big, but they are not omnipresent, always in control, and always on the winning side of trades.

There are a lot of people who can be successful by engaging in tactics that either take advantage of volatility or take advantage of long or short term price movements, without necessarily trying to play a whale game, you can still profit from BTC price movements UP, down or sideways if you try to stay within your lane and/or get lucky.

Sometimes, you can profit from more than one aspect. You can profit from both volatility and from long term up, too. There are various strategies for each that can be short term and long term successful, depending on how played.

Merely because the market is frequently manipulated, does not mean that regular people can profit from a variety of tactics, including HODL and BTC accumulation strategies.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  The only way to win is to buy and hold no matter what.

It is not the only way, but it is likely amongst the better ways, especially for people who are more new to bitcoin or to trading tricks and techniques.

I will also concede that whales will purposefully take advantage of newbie traders, but that does not mean that newbie traders might create some techniques in which they are trading within parameters that are within their own control and able to profit as long as they don't do too many dumb things or overplay their hand or the direction of the market.

(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  Then you are just along for the ride and they can't screw you.

I will agree, again that a lot of people get screwed. Some learn and some get repeatedly screwed. Some abandon attempts to trade.


(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  Yes, sub-10k is a bonus round. Last chance you'll ever get. But what do I know.

Hard to know for sure about if BTC prices are going to go back below $10k again. I keep waffling in my own thinking about whether they will or not.

I do personally set up a system to not really give too many shits about which way the price goes in the short term, but long term I advantage most if the price goes up. I also profit from volatility, and usually more if volatility is more extreme, but I don't attempt to cause such volatility, I just set up my orders in anticipation that volatility is one of the most likely inevitabilities in bitcoin.. not guaranteed but extremely the fuck likely and in that regard it remains good to prepare in both price directions and to prepare way beyond what you expect, just in case (as insurance) even if the price might not go as far as you are prepared for.
07-20-2019 05:48 AM
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Post: #8239
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-20-2019 05:48 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  The whales that control bitcoin can take it to any price level they want, any time they want.

That is a naive and simple perspective that is based on conspiracy and likely to NOT be true.

I respect your views and don't want to argue.

Nevertheless, if you understand how markets work, and look at the price movements of btc in the past few months, it is 100% obvious that the price is being controlled by somebody.

Indeed, it is impossible to come to any other conclusion. The price changes we see every few days in BTC cannot happen in any natural market. They are absurdly impossible.

There's nothing naive about this. It's simple math. Math doesn't lie.

In any case, it doesn't matter, so again let's not argue about it. It's not actually important that anybody believe or not believe what I say. All that matters is that they understand the basics: 1) invest a small amount. 2) hold for multi-year timeframes, ignore all short and medium term changes.

Your investment philsophy and mine are largely the same.
07-20-2019 04:19 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  
(07-20-2019 05:48 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-20-2019 02:02 AM)MrLemon Wrote:  The whales that control bitcoin can take it to any price level they want, any time they want.

That is a naive and simple perspective that is based on conspiracy and likely to NOT be true.

I respect your views and don't want to argue.

I am not trying to completely poo poo your points, even though I disagree with them.

I believe that you really believe what you are saying, and so I am not really saying anything against you personally, and really this thread is for batting around ideas, so I find it a good thing that you raise beliefs that you really have.

Also, maybe I express my opinion too strongly sometimes, but if you noticed, I did not assert that you are completely wrong because I agree that there is some evidence for what you say, at least in the short-term. A lot of my objections to your points have to do with the absolutism in which they come off and such certainty that you express regarding both the ongoingness of manipulation and also the degree.

Accordingly, I was attempting to point out scenarios in which manipulation is neither true, and obviously, you should be able to understand and recognize that even if manipulation is taking place at various points of times and to degrees that we would not be capable of proving exactly anyhow, sometimes the manipulators really lose control over the direction of the price and they are completely unable to contain the price for an extended period of time - even though might simultaneously have systems in place to still be able to profit from the movement of the market both in degree and timeframe that they cannot control.


(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  Nevertheless, if you understand how markets work, and look at the price movements of btc in the past few months, it is 100% obvious that the price is being controlled by somebody.

I will just point out here that you are saying 100% again, and also seem to be suggesting that it is one group. I would posture that if there is any control for periods of time, such control is a whole hell of a lot more diffuse than you are making it out to be.

Furthermore, of course, the pump up to $13,880 was really BIG ASS and amazing, but such degree of movement in terms of quantity and time is also in the playbooks of what is attempted by whales, if they can pull it off, which is when the price is going in one direction, they will push it in that direction for as long and as far as they can until it is completely exhausted. That is a BIG so what because it is something that is attempted and can be pushed by several different uncoordinated entities once the momentum starts, yet there is also a certain point that is not really going to be known that the momentum dries up too, and the entities attempting to control the matter could end up losing a decent amount too, because they are likely not coordinating, as much as you are arguing them to be one entity or to somehow be coordinated or foresightful.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  Indeed, it is impossible to come to any other conclusion.

It is possible. I show you decently reasonable arguments, and we could go on and on and on about this in terms of various scenarios that will show varying degrees of manipulation and we would even likely agree about some and disagree about others. I will agree that some folks have more access to more information than others in regards to attempting to prove these points, and sometimes bad information is relied upon too, when making these kinds of manipulation arguments.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  The price changes we see every few days in BTC cannot happen in any natural market. They are absurdly impossible.

Again, I believe that you can read this from a variety of frameworks, and at least you have not become a no-coiner because of this belief. A lot of no coiners get frustrated by these kinds of beliefs and choose not to get into bitcoin, to under invest or to get out too soon. They are distracting beliefs, but I understand that people believe them, such as you, and believe them strongly, which you seem to.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  There's nothing naive about this. It's simple math. Math doesn't lie.

Don't take my naive statement personal, because I am not trying to personally attack you or to patronize.

Regarding math, oh my.

I sometimes will get worked up when people draw out various charts, and I also used to get a bit worked up in my economics classes based on some of the overmathification of analysis. The thing about economics and markets they are both math and human behavior, so even if you can lump human behavior into predictable categories and probability theories, there are still some unknown aspects, including irrationalities that can be expressed in a variety of ways. So I really don't believe that all of it is math, even though sure, probability theory and game theory and a lot of math can be used to predict within ranges of possibilities, but the exact opposite can also end up happening, and then we might realize that we miscalculated how likely the opposite was to have had occurred.


(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  In any case, it doesn't matter, so again let's not argue about it.

You are correct that we can have differing beliefs about this, and in that sense it does not matter too much because we have to come to our own conclusions, and really I don't give too many shits whether guys chose to invest in bitcoin or not or for what reasons; however, part of the reason that I remain so active in this thread is because I believe that it is helpful to me (and perhaps to other guys too) to be able to discuss these kinds of thoughts and whether we believe that we should change our approach to our BTC investment based on these kinds of dynamics that we believe to be taking place. So in some sense it does not matter in the end what we believe, but it still can be helpful to bat around these ideas in genuine kinds of ways to attempt to figure out if either of us might want to adjust our approach, our allocation amounts, our plans or even how we think about or talk about our investment (strategies) into BTC.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  It's not actually important that anybody believe or not believe what I say.

There are a decent number of folks who believe what you say, and I frequently argue against those kinds of assessments, whether you are going to change your views or not. I still find that they are important discussions to continue to attempt to have, and like I already attempted to say, I am surely not completely against the ideas that manipulation is taking place, but I certainly disagree with absolute assessments, and surely I tend to believe that the BTC market is much more diversely influenced than many manipulation perspectives seem to argue or imply.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  All that matters is that they understand the basics:

I think that I understand what you are saying in that there are some matters that are more basic than manipulation, but sometimes, folks will get completely scared of taking action towards investing in bitcoin if they actually believe the kinds of things that you are suggesting, so in that regard, ideas about manipulation could be part of the basics, especially if it is influencing basic decisions about whether to get into bitcoin and how much.

(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  1) invest a small amount. 2) hold for multi-year timeframes, ignore all short and medium term changes.

I agree with those points, and even though RVF guys could be a bit more educated about bitcoin, perhaps (I used to believe this, but sometimes I am not too sure, either, especially after some of the alt coin hype from 2017-ish), there are still going to be some stages in deciding to get into bitcoin.

If guys get into bitcoin to gamble short term, then their experience could be all over the place, but like you said, if guys get in for long term investing, then they do need to also get their own financial shit in order so that they can actually reasonably consider how much of their portfolio they will put into bitcoin, and then go through an accumulation phase and then a maintenance phase and to have some ideas for conditions and/or how they are going to attempt to apply their liquidation phase.


(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  Your investment philsophy and mine are largely the same.

Fair enough. We seem to agree that bitcoin is a good long term investment that guys (or at least we personally) should hold as part of their investment portfolio, and that there is a lot of value to dollar cost averaging into BTC and holding and accumulating BTC... so definitely those are good foundational agreements.
07-21-2019 11:12 AM
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jeffreyjerpp Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  Indeed, it is impossible to come to any other conclusion. The price changes we see every few days in BTC cannot happen in any natural market. They are absurdly impossible.

There's nothing naive about this. It's simple math. Math doesn't lie.

Uhhh....what? All the big moves in BTC in the past few years have been amongst the most common patterns seen in all commodities trading. For example, a parabolic advance this year, which was preceded by the breakdown of a symmetrical triangle in 2018:

[Image: D_YQJK4UEAAkmz0.jpg]

The ACTUAL weird thing about this latest bull run was that the financial instruments that actual whales might use to increase their gains (futures products etc.) were untouched during the run up. So whoever was buying had enough money to know they would be pumping the price hard, but wasn't interested in extracting the maximum dollar value from their investments.

[Image: 1.jpg]

Who on earth wants custody of billions of dollars of BTC, but isn't interested in getting the maximum return?

Probably not retail.
DEFINITELY not hedge funds.
Likely not pension funds or endowments, either...

Could there be a central bank out there acquiring some BTC?
07-23-2019 10:53 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-23-2019 10:53 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(07-20-2019 04:19 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  Indeed, it is impossible to come to any other conclusion. The price changes we see every few days in BTC cannot happen in any natural market. They are absurdly impossible.

There's nothing naive about this. It's simple math. Math doesn't lie.

Uhhh....what? All the big moves in BTC in the past few years have been amongst the most common patterns seen in all commodities trading. For example, a parabolic advance this year, which was preceded by the breakdown of a symmetrical triangle in 2018:

[Image: D_YQJK4UEAAkmz0.jpg]

The ACTUAL weird thing about this latest bull run was that the financial instruments that actual whales might use to increase their gains (futures products etc.) were untouched during the run up. So whoever was buying had enough money to know they would be pumping the price hard, but wasn't interested in extracting the maximum dollar value from their investments.

[Image: 1.jpg]

Who on earth wants custody of billions of dollars of BTC, but isn't interested in getting the maximum return?

Probably not retail.
DEFINITELY not hedge funds.
Likely not pension funds or endowments, either...

Could there be a central bank out there acquiring some BTC?

I have heard this theory recently. I am not sure how much weight I put into it, but what you seem to be suggesting is that there is some kind of irony in the way that this run up had taken place in that usually there would be signs of profit making in other areas besides merely the acquisition of bitcoin... but in this case, there seems to be no signs of such attempts to make money in more than one way, like a hedge fund might do if they know that they are going to be pushing up the price.

If there is a real large correction, such as something back down into the territory of sub $6k, then would't that negate some of what you are suggesting, jeffreyjerpp..... because then we would have seen a pump followed by a dump... and then the jury would no longer be out, about what was the reason for the 3.5x pump from $4,200 to $13,880.
07-23-2019 11:02 PM
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crypto_hustly Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(12-15-2018 10:05 AM)Lithuanian10 Wrote:  Bitcoin dead, going to 0 next year,sorry for miners.all crypto dead market. No value at all.

Bitcoin is not dead as it is booming every day people are showing a lot of interest in the cryptocurrency.
One of the popular crypto tron is performing really well in the crypto market, several crypto experts predict that tron price prediction the price will rise in the upcoming years.
07-24-2019 07:57 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-24-2019 07:57 AM)crypto_hustly Wrote:  
(12-15-2018 10:05 AM)Lithuanian10 Wrote:  Bitcoin dead, going to 0 next year,sorry for miners.all crypto dead market. No value at all.

Bitcoin is not dead as it is booming every day people are showing a lot of interest in the cryptocurrency.
One of the popular crypto tron is performing really well in the crypto market, several crypto experts predict that tron price prediction the price will rise in the upcoming years.

You are correct about bitcoin not being dead, but it is also the only crypto that it seems prudent to invest in long term because it is the only one that is not a scam, centralized, snake oil, immitation, etc....

If you want to discuss other coins, perhaps make another thread or go to an existing thread that is more or less on that topic, such as the crypto thread.
07-24-2019 08:50 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-23-2019 11:02 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have heard this theory recently. I am not sure how much weight I put into it, but what you seem to be suggesting is that there is some kind of irony in the way that this run up had taken place in that usually there would be signs of profit making in other areas besides merely the acquisition of bitcoin... but in this case, there seems to be no signs of such attempts to make money in more than one way, like a hedge fund might do if they know that they are going to be pushing up the price.

If there is a real large correction, such as something back down into the territory of sub $6k, then would't that negate some of what you are suggesting, jeffreyjerpp..... because then we would have seen a pump followed by a dump... and then the jury would no longer be out, about what was the reason for the 3.5x pump from $4,200 to $13,880.

US and by extension the USD, GBP, and EUR are looking increasingly weak while China and the RMB are far from strong enough to be the reserve currency. Money has to go somewhere relatively safer.
07-24-2019 11:08 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I see it going to 9k or lower in the next few months, but am very bullish on it by mid next year, where I foresee 20k+

Get your passport ready!
07-26-2019 12:09 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-26-2019 12:09 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I see it going to 9k or lower in the next few months, but am very bullish on it by mid next year, where I foresee 20k+


What odds are you giving for below $9k in the coming months?

We were already at $9,049 about 9 days ago, so I am not sure that you are saying anything really remarkable with a $9k or below assertion.

Regarding $20k+ by mid next year, that is not really saying much either.

We are within about 50% of that mark, and really $20k should not be much of any kind of sticking point, so it would make much more sense to talk about when and whether we would get to $17,500 or $24,000.

Also, mid next year is the halvening, too. so getting a pump in bitcoin before or around the halvening is showing a bit of an attempt to front-run the halvening.. .which a lot of market analysis like to seemingly nonsensically assert that such well known events should already be "priced in", but I have my own contentions with that because even though we might know what the supply is going to do, we do not really know what demand is going to do, which is the other half of the formula with regards to price being partly driven by supply and demand.

Another theme that you are making is "down before up" .. maybe and maybe not. Here that one a lot, sometimes it is right and sometimes not, but it surely is said a lot in bitcoin.... maybe even moreso with nocoiners, fence sitters, shorters, folks who sold too much too early, and even though I don't really care too much, I do get some kind of additional pleasure when I frequently see those folks get left behind, over and over again, when the "down before up" does not play out in any kind of proximity to their wishes.

By the way Kid Twist, have you either acquired any BTC yet, or created some kind of reasonable plan to get some stake in bitcoin, or do you just want to observe as someone without a stake or just hoping bitcoin to go down for other reasons?
07-26-2019 12:53 PM
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Pinocchio Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-26-2019 12:09 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I see it going to 9k or lower in the next few months, but am very bullish on it by mid next year, where I foresee 20k+

I think we could push on from here shortly, we've already had a 35ish% correction from the high.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2019 12:12 AM by Pinocchio.)
07-27-2019 12:09 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(07-27-2019 12:09 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 12:09 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  I see it going to 9k or lower in the next few months, but am very bullish on it by mid next year, where I foresee 20k+

I think we could push on from here shortly, we've already had a 35ish% correction from the high.

Yeah, but how are we going to know?

You are correct that so far the correction brought us down from $13,880 to $9,049, which is about 35%, but we had come up about 3.5X in less than 3 months.

So I will agree with you that the BTC price is bouncing within a range that still is within striking distance of testing support - or testing resistance - while at the same time, there are some more senate hearings next week. I think the banking finance committee wants to figure out some possible "crypto" regulations... but is that thinking about facebook coin and those kinds of things? Various other cryptos, exchanges or will it have some affects on bitcoin in terms of more KYC AML or even concerns about tax reporting or other movement of value concerns that might not be as controllable by government through various cryptos, including bitcoin.

Maybe there could be a pump before a dump before another pump? As usual, I am NOT planning any drastic moves, but just will buy if the price goes down and sell small amounts if it goes up.
07-27-2019 01:02 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
A big part of btc going from 1k to 20k was Ethereum and the ICO/altcoin market driving speculation and demand. 20k to 300k is going to need Libra. I've heard all about the halvening and stock to flow ratios but I just don't see 250k+ in 2 years without a catalyst like Libra injecting money from a small percentage of 2 billion FB users. I suspect most of you will be satisfied with a conservative 50-100k within the next 18-24months before it crashes back to sub 20k levels.
07-27-2019 10:42 AM
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