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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #8301
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 02:55 PM)rungoodinc Wrote:  This might sound silly but in my opinion the worst thing that could happen to BTC was if the true satoshi nakamoto came out and then dumped his 1 million BTC on the market and ran off with his money. But seeing that Hal Finney is the most likely creator and he already passed, that seems quite unlikely.

Governments have already tried to shut it down and that got zero traction. If governments are ever able to shut it down then we will have much worse problems to deal with than the price of BTC aka complete authoritarianism.

Those are both pretty BIG what ifs, and both seem implausible as fuck.
08-23-2019 05:01 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Clearly you would have to understand absolutely zero about cypherpunks to think Satoshi would do all of this for an elaborate pump and dump. Rofl.
08-23-2019 06:28 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I never said this was any kind of reasonable possibility (which is why I am heavily invested in BTC, maybe too much), but I do think the probability is > 0 and that this would be a huge threat to BTC if it were to ever happen. I'm not concerned with the other "threats" to BTC aside from their impact on its short-term price.
(This post was last modified: 08-23-2019 07:33 PM by rungoodinc.)
08-23-2019 07:32 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Rungoodinc is smart to consider tail events like Satoshi dumping.

Personally, I'm more concerned about subversive government attacks against Bitcoin. We know the CIA keeps some tricks up their sleeves, what's to stop them from "shutting down" industrial mining pools?

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08-23-2019 07:48 PM
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Post: #8305
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 07:48 PM)redbeard Wrote:  Rungoodinc is smart to consider tail events like Satoshi dumping.

Personally, I'm more concerned about subversive government attacks against Bitcoin. We know the CIA keeps some tricks up their sleeves, what's to stop them from "shutting down" industrial mining pools?

I can't image the government cares much about BTC. It's not like many people are using it as a currency, so it's not a threat to the USD in that regard.
08-23-2019 08:32 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 08:32 PM)zoom Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 07:48 PM)redbeard Wrote:  Rungoodinc is smart to consider tail events like Satoshi dumping.

Personally, I'm more concerned about subversive government attacks against Bitcoin. We know the CIA keeps some tricks up their sleeves, what's to stop them from "shutting down" industrial mining pools?

I can't image the government cares much about BTC. It's not like many people are using it as a currency, so it's not a threat to the USD in that regard.

Sounds like you are playing a desperate bcash talking point card, rather than engaging in a position of reason.

You don't seem to understand what bitcoin is if you believe that the value of bitcoin should be to make itself as worthless as regular fiat in term of making itself desired to be spent which seems to be what the bcash camps are propagandizing as being what bitcoin should be aiming for...... and that is not the only problem of the various bcash camps.

In your thinking, let's aim to devalue ourselves so much that people want to spend us first? You are no dummy, zoom, are you? You do understand Gresham's law in regards to spending less valuable assets/monies first, don't you? I know that I mentioned Gresham's law plenty of times in this threads, but bcash pumpers remain in denial regarding the various powers of bitcoin and sound money and the fact that even though roger ver's various talking points sounded so correct and logical, they have taken you on a ride in terms of wanting you to believe what bitcoin should be, but ending up with a shit coin that can only be used as an attack vector from time to time to the extent that they might trick some people into actually buying that relatively less valuable crap.

Governments are made up of people, and some people are smarter than others in terms of recognizing the proposition of bitcoin including that the hardness of money is a potential threat to their fiat systems of inflating away towards valuelessness. You can still have a store of value that is spent, like bitcoin, but there is going to be a BIG ass incentive to replace it and to spend any less likely to retain value money first, such as fiat and bcash and even spending various other shitcoins before spending your bitcoin.

Smarter government officials and even institutions that have really worked through understanding the facts and the logic of bitcoin including its whole backbone system of hashing power and security are going to gain some understanding of the value proposition(s) of bitcoin, and therefore also recognize its threat to sloppiness in fiat systems and perhaps even cause incentives for sloppy fiat systems to clean themselves up, even if such government officials might not publicly articulate their understanding of the bitcoin threat to the frequently excessive and abusive value extraction past-practices of traditional financial systems, and the various bcash strains and even various scammy altcoins are much closer to fiat in that regard than bitcoin, even though some of the scammy altcoins might be able to perform better than fiat, as long as they are not eaten from the inside out by their own inabilities to keep up their various smoke and mirror attempts to be phony copy cat bitcoin wannabes.
08-23-2019 08:56 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 08:56 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In your thinking, let's aim to devalue ourselves so much that people want to spend us first? You are no dummy, zoom, are you? You do understand Gresham's law in regards to spending less valuable assets/monies first, don't you? I know that I mentioned Gresham's law plenty of times in this threads, but bcash pumpers remain in denial regarding the various powers of bitcoin and sound money and the fact that even though roger ver's various talking points sounded so correct and logical, they have taken you on a ride in terms of wanting you to believe what bitcoin should be, but ending up with a shit coin that can only be used as an attack vector from time to time to the extent that they might trick some people into actually buying that relatively less valuable crap.

Governments are made up of people, and some people are smarter than others in terms of recognizing the proposition of bitcoin including that the hardness of money is a potential threat to their fiat systems of inflating away towards valuelessness. You can still have a store of value that is spent, like bitcoin, but there is going to be a BIG ass incentive to replace it and to spend any less likely to retain value money first, such as fiat and bcash and even spending various other shitcoins before spending your bitcoin.

Viewing the current China/US drama in light of Argentina discovering elections (even primary elections) have consequences... I suspect the USD's volatility is about to increase. Bitcoin is winning, and Trump is right but far too late (not electing Pat Buchanan in the 90's was doom).

If the Satoshi coins moved and them got sold, the money is there in Russia-China trade to take them for the sake on simply knowing they are circulating. The Satoshi stash risk is already priced in.

Hope everyone Hodl'd.
08-23-2019 09:28 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I wanted to share this interview. It is Raoul Pal interviewing Dan Tapiero. Both are old school hedge fund macro guys. The interview isn't 100% bitcoin, just fyi.

Raoul bought into bitcoin in the 200s and sold out when the forking began around about a couple thousand. He has since became a full on believer again.

Dan just began to buy in this year it sounded like(maybe i missed that detail). Raoul mentioned in a separate podcast something that Dan did not say in this interview and it was that Dan went into bitcoin 100%. That is very telling coming from hedge fund macro guys who are just buying in 2019. They have a bit of a different view from the early adopters.

In that separate podcast(I forget what one it was) Raoul said that all the big known and unknown hedge fund guys are going into bitcoin.

I've recently been binge listening to Raoul since I found him recently. It is interesting to hear these types of people throwing serious money into bitcoin after such a monster move over the years.



(This post was last modified: 08-23-2019 09:47 PM by Jaydublin.)
08-23-2019 09:46 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 09:28 PM)BBinger Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 08:56 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In your thinking, let's aim to devalue ourselves so much that people want to spend us first? You are no dummy, zoom, are you? You do understand Gresham's law in regards to spending less valuable assets/monies first, don't you? I know that I mentioned Gresham's law plenty of times in this threads, but bcash pumpers remain in denial regarding the various powers of bitcoin and sound money and the fact that even though roger ver's various talking points sounded so correct and logical, they have taken you on a ride in terms of wanting you to believe what bitcoin should be, but ending up with a shit coin that can only be used as an attack vector from time to time to the extent that they might trick some people into actually buying that relatively less valuable crap.

Governments are made up of people, and some people are smarter than others in terms of recognizing the proposition of bitcoin including that the hardness of money is a potential threat to their fiat systems of inflating away towards valuelessness. You can still have a store of value that is spent, like bitcoin, but there is going to be a BIG ass incentive to replace it and to spend any less likely to retain value money first, such as fiat and bcash and even spending various other shitcoins before spending your bitcoin.

Viewing the current China/US drama in light of Argentina discovering elections (even primary elections) have consequences... I suspect the USD's volatility is about to increase. Bitcoin is winning, and Trump is right but far too late (not electing Pat Buchanan in the 90's was doom).

If the Satoshi coins moved and them got sold, the money is there in Russia-China trade to take them for the sake on simply knowing they are circulating. The Satoshi stash risk is already priced in.

Hope everyone Hodl'd.

I doubt that Trump has much ability to focus on anything beyond himself, but even that could possibly cause policy directions, including some of his tendencies to stir shit to end up causing a back and forth battle, if he were to actually make any further focuses on bitcoin than he already has.

Of course, the most recent studies into bitcoin has been through some of the congressional studies of facebook coin, and surely those kinds of discussions and investigations could spark some policies implementation attempts.

Like you seem to suggest, BBinger, the overall policy hole that has been dug, in terms of financial irresponsibility seems quite beyond any kind of simple fix and could even be beyond repair.. but I would think that any national program (and even Trump could do this, but he would not likely do it) that aimed at attempting to recover the economy and the dollar by focusing on broad swaths of national infrastructure repair then those kinds of efforts could possibly rebuild the dollar, and even responsible foreign cooperation programs could help too, but the self interest of each country is going to have tendencies to cause countries NOT to trust other countries and not to want to cooperate, and likely devolve into situations in which bitcoin continues to serve as a value gravitation point.
08-23-2019 10:09 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 09:46 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  I wanted to share this interview. It is Raoul Pal interviewing Dan Tapiero. Both are old school hedge fund macro guys. The interview isn't 100% bitcoin, just fyi.

Raoul bought into bitcoin in the 200s and sold out when the forking began around about a couple thousand. He has since became a full on believer again.

Dan just began to buy in this year it sounded like(maybe i missed that detail). Raoul mentioned in a separate podcast something that Dan did not say in this interview and it was that Dan went into bitcoin 100%. That is very telling coming from hedge fund macro guys who are just buying in 2019. They have a bit of a different view from the early adopters.

In that separate podcast(I forget what one it was) Raoul said that all the big known and unknown hedge fund guys are going into bitcoin.

I've recently been binge listening to Raoul since I found him recently. It is interesting to hear these types of people throwing serious money into bitcoin after such a monster move over the years.




I watched the 1 hour video, and I believe that this is a largely bitcoin focused interview, except the middle /end kind of migrates into some other areas including gold and financial policy discussion, and Tapiero does seem to be more inclined to focus on bitcoin and to understand the sound money aspect of bitcoin (even though he seems to be a recent convert - coming back into BTC as you mentioned, Jay).

Surely Pal seems more inclined to get caught up in technicalities and even the innovations of other coins, but that might be just his attempt to explore various areas and to get Tapiero's views regarding where other coins might fit into the whole sound money picture, as compared with bitcoin.

I do agree with you Jay, that kind of transformation of thinking of Tapiero does seem to kind of reflect a more sympathetic appreciation of bitcoin that is coming into the traditional financial guys, and even Tapiero seems to be arguing that we still remain in quite early days and there still remains a decent amount of entry that still needs to come into the space by a lot of traditional financial guys that still do not know about bitcoin (or believe in it) and are likely to increasingly incorporate bitcoin into their investment strategies in the coming 5-8 years.
08-23-2019 11:18 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-23-2019 09:46 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  I wanted to share this interview. It is Raoul Pal interviewing Dan Tapiero. Both are old school hedge fund macro guys. The interview isn't 100% bitcoin, just fyi.

Raoul bought into bitcoin in the 200s and sold out when the forking began around about a couple thousand. He has since became a full on believer again.

Dan just began to buy in this year it sounded like(maybe i missed that detail). Raoul mentioned in a separate podcast something that Dan did not say in this interview and it was that Dan went into bitcoin 100%. That is very telling coming from hedge fund macro guys who are just buying in 2019. They have a bit of a different view from the early adopters.

In that separate podcast(I forget what one it was) Raoul said that all the big known and unknown hedge fund guys are going into bitcoin.

I've recently been binge listening to Raoul since I found him recently. It is interesting to hear these types of people throwing serious money into bitcoin after such a monster move over the years.




I've been watching/ following Raoul Pal for a while - very interesting guy. He's basically said before that every major macro trader he knows is long Bitcoin.

This is another interesting video on his view of wider economy and potential incoming recession - although it doesn't have any Bitcoin content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7zEXiqiiqA&app=desktop
08-24-2019 09:50 AM
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Barron Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
All the big crypto currencies just took a big hit in the last 24 hours (all went down around 10%), anyone know what's going on?

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08-29-2019 03:06 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 03:06 AM)Barron Wrote:  All the big crypto currencies just took a big hit in the last 24 hours (all went down around 10%), anyone know what's going on?

Normal market movements, and don't get caught up with "crypto" currencies when the ONLY one that matters is bitcoin.

In other words, various shitcoins are getting purged of their overvaluations on a regular basis, and also weak hands are getting shaken out of bitcoin while BIGGER players are accumulating BTC in preparation for the currently anticipated launching of BAKKT on September 23... and also BTC's halvening in May 2020.


Edit:
Here's a link also to an article that seems to show that BAKKT is getting closer and closer because they are allowing BTC deposits, starting next week.

https://www.coindesk.com/customers-can-d...-next-week

Surely, there are no guarantees that BTC prices are going to go up from this, but seems to me to cause a decent amount of extra upwards BTC price pressures (likely additional pressures on BTC's supply)
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2019 03:50 AM by JayJuanGee.)
08-29-2019 03:22 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 03:06 AM)Barron Wrote:  All the big crypto currencies just took a big hit in the last 24 hours (all went down around 10%), anyone know what's going on?

Lots of dumping.
I bet many Chinese are cashing out and running with their money.
08-29-2019 11:48 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 11:48 AM)rpg Wrote:  
(08-29-2019 03:06 AM)Barron Wrote:  All the big crypto currencies just took a big hit in the last 24 hours (all went down around 10%), anyone know what's going on?

Lots of dumping.
I bet many Chinese are cashing out and running with their money.

Yeah, but are you talking about bitcoin or something else?

There could be dumping of alts into bitcoin or dumping into cash.

I understand that there are some cultures that are really into various gambling ideas about making it rich with the various shitcoins, and accordingly don't give a lot of value to bitcoin because they consider the upside potential of bitcoin to NOT be as great as one of the shitcoins. Those matters are likely going to persist, and that is part of the reason that shitcoins are not really too likely to go away, completely, and there is both the dream of your own particular shitcoin gaining enough muster to pump or choosing the right shitcoin(s) to be in.. which may or may not work out. .. for example, believing that shitcoin A or shitcoin B cannot go any lower, so either staying in it or buying more of it, and then it continues to go down.

Of course, guys who are into BTC have a certain sense that the downside is NOT likely to be as BIG even while the UPSIDE is NOT as BIG either, but at the same time, recognizing that whatever UPSIDE bitcoin has, that amount of upside is likely to be more than enough to get rich as fuck, especially if either you have been in a long time or if you are patient enough to have a decent longer time horizon of 5-10 years - even while you could get lucky and get rich quicker but if you have at least a 5 year time horizon, you are likely to do quite well for yourself relative to other investments played on the same timeline.

Edit:


And, below is a link to one of those examples of a supposedly smart person (because she is rich) considering bitcoin as her worst investment.

Probably she considers bitcoin to be her worst investment because she neither knows shit about it, and neither she nor her buddies can do anything to control the price direction of honey badger bitcoin.

Gambling on something that you have no idea about nor conviction is likely NOT to work out too well, especially if you follow the FOMO. hahahahaahaha

https://coinnounce.com/richest-woman-in-...nvestment/
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2019 12:40 PM by JayJuanGee.)
08-29-2019 12:18 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Im only talking bitcoin.
As I watch coinbase pro I see lots of huge dumps. 60 coin dumps.
08-29-2019 04:14 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 04:14 PM)rpg Wrote:  Im only talking bitcoin.
As I watch coinbase pro I see lots of huge dumps. 60 coin dumps.

Thanks for the clarification.

Seems to me that BTC is still in a bull market, so yeah, maybe we will get more down from here, but seems that it is better to consider this as a correction rather than any kind of reversal.

Of course, BTC trade volume picks up when there is any meaningful attempt at a dump, or a battle or attempt to test the bottom or to determine if there are more weak hands that can be shaken, and surely the bearwhales who start out any of these kinds of dumps hope that others will follow in order that they do not have to dump all the way down and they can start to recoup whatever BTC that they had used to dump the BTC price to get some of those coins back at a lower price.

On the other hand, yeah, we have only been in this particular BTC price correction for about two months, and corrections can last for many months longer, without transforming the bull market into a bear market.

If you remember early 2016, we had a BTC price run up from $250 to $500 in October 2015, and then the consolidation lasted from early November 2015 until May 2016 before breaking back above $500.

So I am not sure if we are in an early 2016 like scenario or perhaps we are in a mid-2016 like scenario where the BTC price seemed to have been correcting in June and July and perhaps returning to go back up, but then the seemingly blackswan event of the Bitfinex "hack" took place in early August 2016, which caused additional correction and several more months of uncertainty regarding when or if the BTC price would recover that particular decently large scale event.

I am still inclined to believe that we are in a kind of early 2016 like scenario, but hey, it is really difficult to know short term BTC price movements until maybe looking at them retrospectively to see where the bottoms ended up playing out.
08-29-2019 04:42 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
The bond markets are a joke, I think you'll see net push to equities still, Trump gets elected for 4 more, then the air comes out a little while afterwards (1-2 years).

Bitcoin bobs and weaves, but when the whole world bond markets are so clearly down for the count, it explodes. Hang in there.

Yeah, they'll still blame Trump, but who cares at that point.

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08-29-2019 07:27 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 07:27 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  The bond markets are a joke, I think you'll see net push to equities still, Trump gets elected for 4 more, then the air comes out a little while afterwards (1-2 years).

Bitcoin bobs and weaves, but when the whole world bond markets are so clearly down for the count, it explodes. Hang in there.

Yeah, they'll still blame Trump, but who cares at that point.

You seem to be becoming more and more bitcoin bullish with each post. Hopefully, you have not leveraged all your assets on this one, even if it might end up paying off, still is prudent to have some other investments, no?

Also, you have not really explained what you did last time around with the dip into the $9,400s and now there is a dip even further into the $9,300s that could bring us to test $9k and lower, again, possibly. What's your BTC buying plan, if you have one? Anyone else have a BTC buying plan that they would like to share?
08-29-2019 08:08 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
I think BTC may be in trouble, at least from a medium term price perspective.

The financial markets are reflecting increasing anxiety with the world monetary system and a possible global recession. The result has been a bid on any assets seen as "safe" from such an event, like gold, US stocks, long dated bonds, etc.

BTC has been going down, however. This is extremely discouraging to me, because I was hoping BTC would be seen as the safe haven asset in the event of another financial crisis or wild government money printing. It looks like gold might still have that title, though. Take a look at this as well, from Twitter:

"Here's some #Bitcoin market analysis: Here's a 2017 correction overlaid on top of now. It's rather magicaly how the appreciation trajectory lines up, with 2019 trend line support 2017 overlaid price; when only the bottoms were actually aligned.
....
Look at the divergence. At this point, I don't really see a history quadruple bottom 2 months to buy $9500 or lower (30% dip or more) in parabolic rises. I don't see any reason to not visit 20 RSI on the daily. Maybe test out that $8500 target."

[Image: ECCBy31XsAAjHJ9?format=png&name=medium]

I am perhaps more bearish than that. If BTC is seen as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven, there could be years of pain ahead.

Look at the 2011 chart of Gold in a parabolic bull run vs. the 2017 BTC chart. Could easily take years before BTC again shows serious signs of life. Not saying that is likely, just possible.
08-29-2019 09:52 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 09:52 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  I am perhaps more bearish than that. If BTC is seen as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven, there could be years of pain ahead.

Look at the 2011 chart of Gold in a parabolic bull run vs. the 2017 BTC chart. Could easily take years before BTC again shows serious signs of life. Not saying that is likely, just possible.

I agree with your assessment, and I have been shorting BTC on its way down. I am also short OSTK, which has a strong correlation to crypto prices. I am long gold, silver, and gold mining stocks.

Some bearish observations about BTC:

- As you noted, it is doubtful that BTC will act as a safe haven, at least based on recent price trends in this shaky macro environment. BTC hasn't been through a recession yet, so no one knows how it will behave. It doesn't look good so far though.

- The US government has been cracking down on exchanges. Exchanges have been forced to block US customers, and in many cases delist certain cryptos. The most notable event that's coming up is on September 12th, when Binance will start blocking US customers from its platform. This regulatory activity has completely decimated the alt market.

- When there was a thriving alt market, the money would flow back and forth between BTC and alts. Now the flow of money is unidirectional from alts -> BTC -> fiat. The big pump we saw from BTC recently was mainly the effect of alts being liquidated. Once alts are gone, there is nothing left to pump BTC. Also, one of the main use cases of BTC was as an onramp to alts. That use case no longer exists.

- Volume for all exchanges has been dwindling. If you look at Coinbase, the quintessential retail exchange, they have been desperately listing anything to try to get volume: total pump and dump scams like Algorand, for example. This is extreme desperation, because they are almost certainly running afoul of US regulators by listing unregulated securities. It's only a matter of time until they get served. Coinbase website traffic is sharply down according to Alexa. Executives at Coinbase have been leaving in droves. They know what is coming.

- The US government is all over the Tether/Bitfinex operation, and they are methodically unwinding the scam. The Tether printer has mysteriously stopped, at least on the OMNI blockchain. We're not seeing the constant printing like we saw in recent months. I think that regulators may have already seized their operations. The printing of Tethers (along with alts liquidation) has been propping up the price on this dead cat bounce in recent months, but it looks like that is coming to an end.
(This post was last modified: 08-29-2019 10:59 PM by Lampwick.)
08-29-2019 10:53 PM
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Post: #8322
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-29-2019 10:53 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  
(08-29-2019 09:52 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  I am perhaps more bearish than that. If BTC is seen as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven, there could be years of pain ahead.

Look at the 2011 chart of Gold in a parabolic bull run vs. the 2017 BTC chart. Could easily take years before BTC again shows serious signs of life. Not saying that is likely, just possible.

I agree with your assessment, and I have been shorting BTC on its way down. I am also short OSTK, which has a strong correlation to crypto prices. I am long gold, silver, and gold mining stocks.

Some bearish observations about BTC:

- As you noted, it is doubtful that BTC will act as a safe haven, at least based on recent price trends in this shaky macro environment. BTC hasn't been through a recession yet, so no one knows how it will behave. It doesn't look good so far though.

- The US government has been cracking down on exchanges. Exchanges have been forced to block US customers, and in many cases delist certain cryptos. The most notable event that's coming up is on September 12th, when Binance will start blocking US customers from its platform. This regulatory activity has completely decimated the alt market.

- When there was a thriving alt market, the money would flow back and forth between BTC and alts. Now the flow of money is unidirectional from alts -> BTC -> fiat. The big pump we saw from BTC recently was mainly the effect of alts being liquidated. Once alts are gone, there is nothing left to pump BTC. Also, one of the main use cases of BTC was as an onramp to alts. That use case no longer exists.

- Volume for all exchanges has been dwindling. If you look at Coinbase, the quintessential retail exchange, they have been desperately listing anything to try to get volume: total pump and dump scams like Algorand, for example. This is extreme desperation, because they are almost certainly running afoul of US regulators by listing unregulated securities. It's only a matter of time until they get served. Coinbase website traffic is sharply down according to Alexa. Executives at Coinbase have been leaving in droves. They know what is coming.

- The US government is all over the Tether/Bitfinex operation, and they are methodically unwinding the scam. The Tether printer has mysteriously stopped, at least on the OMNI blockchain. We're not seeing the constant printing like we saw in recent months. I think that regulators may have already seized their operations. The printing of Tethers (along with alts liquidation) has been propping up the price on this dead cat bounce in recent months, but it looks like that is coming to an end.

To me, it seems that neither of you really understand BTC, but hey you give enough bearish arguments to justify your bearish positions, so I supposed that we can see how it plays out and let your money speak for where your mouth is.

By the way, I would not consider a total of a 50% price correction down from the $13,880 price bump in June to be out of the ordinary or even to remove BTC from its current bull market. That would be $7k-ish - even though it might take a bit of bit more FUD spreading and negative momentum to get it to go down there... Not impossible but also not unusual after BTC had experienced about a 3.5x price increase in less than 3 months. So, matters in BTC are not quite as dire as they are made out to be by perennial BTC naysayer wannabes.

Yes, BTC is currently in a price correction, so it might not yet be ready to go up, and if any of you might recall early 2016 took nearly 6 months of correction and flat before it was ready to continue upwards to go above $500 and never to return.

I don't know whether it is worth my time to attempt to assert that various actions against exchanges or even exchanges booting out of USA customers is less bearish than some might make that out to be, because at the same time there are is increasingly more and more financialization mechanisms coming online for BTC, and sure some of the BTC naysayers are going to suggest that those financialization avenues are going to cause additional shorting mechanisms, but yeah, let's see how it plays out with the ongoing increasing BTC development, adoption and awareness as well as the halvening coming up that are all also going to putting upwards price pressures on BTC.... Hopefully you are ready, willing and able to close your shorts when price action might not be playing in your anticipated direction... but we will see. Right?

Naysayers are not new to bitcoin, and they have been calling for its death and demise all the way up from 200 in 2014/2015, and BTC HODLers have been able to laugh those naysayers all the way to the bank (or maybe better to their trezors).

Regarding pms such as gold or silver.. yeah good luck with that. You have recently seen a bit of a spark in those markets of 20% rise or whatever, but my BTC holdings are currently in the 12x territory, even after I made a whole bunch of silly mistakes.. and likely BTC is going to continue to perform quite well, as it has historically in bull waves, which we currently seem to be in early stages of such. Regarding gold and silver, bitcoin is just superior, and gold/silver bugs are just caught in their little fantasy-landia regarding the relative performance potential of those assets.. think about a few characteristics of transportability, verifiability, divisibility, and abilities to take out third party costs.. bitcoin has those asset classes whooped and accordingly bitcoin's upside potential is going to show this in the upcoming years, whether it happens in the next year or two or it takes 10 years, these are modern dynamics that old school financial people are going to end up seeing whether they like it or not.

Regarding shit coins... don't get bitcoin mixed up with shitcoins. Of course, there has been some additional purging of shitcoins in the past year or so, and even seemingly more in the past 3 months, and whether the purging continues, I am not sure, and whether a decent number of shitcoins get pumped again, I don't know, so even though shitcoins are likely taking advantage of the security and strength of bitcoin, they still are not the same thing as bitcoin .. but they still might be a means that money keeps coming into the space, even though you guys seem to be a bit unclear about what is happening now in your assumption that money is going to be flowing (or is flowing) into fiat and/or gold, when that does not seem to be an actual phenomenon beyond your wishes.

So if you consider BTC as the king daddy of crypto and a paradigm shifting phenomenon that has stupendous computing power, development and adoption, rather than getting distracted by shitcoins, you might be able to understand the matter a bit more clearly, and if you recognize that bitcoin is actually currently in a bull market, you might end up making the right decision(s).. so good luck with your shorting, selling of BTC, fence sitting and/or failure to buy btc..

You are likely going to need a bit of luck in terms of your perspective of betting on less likely scenarios of bitcoin going to zero or some other downfall bear market (when that is not the case) and missing out on one of the best current investments in this particular market situation that we find ourselves.
08-30-2019 01:05 AM
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Post: #8323
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
- agreed the short term is looking bearish, descending triangle and other indicators is pretty convincing FUD. I don't see why the price can't easily drop to 8500 or lower. I am more optimistic about December onwards. It's still amazing that the price is at this level already. Previously when price was 3.5-4k I was saying we probably won't see 8-12k until the halvening, now people are only talking about 20k and higher before mid 2020.

Quote: As you noted, it is doubtful that BTC will act as a safe haven, at least based on recent price trends in this shaky macro environment. BTC hasn't been through a recession yet, so no one knows how it will behave. It doesn't look good so far though.

-I'm thinking we might not see another credit crutch like we saw in 2006-2007 and the resultant asset bubble pop in housing and gold/BTC thanks to negative interest rates. This is one of the biggest speculative questions in crypto. I've heard the opposite will happen too and to me they both make sense.

Quote:- The US government has been cracking down on exchanges. Exchanges have been forced to block US customers, and in many cases delist certain cryptos. The most notable event that's coming up is on September 12th, when Binance will start blocking US customers from its platform. This regulatory activity has completely decimated the alt market.

I actually don't think this is a big deal, Alts were decimated before said regulation. Of course, it's not helping.

I remember throughout the 2017 ICO market you couldn't do anything to stop Americans from buying in. I remember people with deep pockets using friends, family, and employees to buy ICOs/alts they weren't allowed into.

I think regulation right now is now just background FUD. Sure, the SEC is in the background culling the lowest of hanging fruit, but I think this is secondary or tertiary concern to price.


Quote:- When there was a thriving alt market, the money would flow back and forth between BTC and alts. Now the flow of money is unidirectional from alts -> BTC -> fiat. The big pump we saw from BTC recently was mainly the effect of alts being liquidated. Once alts are gone, there is nothing left to pump BTC. Also, one of the main use cases of BTC was as an onramp to alts. That use case no longer exists.

I wish every bitcoin maximalist would read and re-read things like this before they demean alts. I still think once BTC passes 20k the greed and enthusiasm will return to alts and flow into bitcoin and vice-versa. I've noticed people are buying some of the blue chip alts and supporting the price. I'll have a more complete picture by mid2020.

Quote:- Volume for all exchanges has been dwindling. If you look at Coinbase, the quintessential retail exchange, they have been desperately listing anything to try to get volume: total pump and dump scams like Algorand, for example. This is extreme desperation, because they are almost certainly running afoul of US regulators by listing unregulated securities. It's only a matter of time until they get served. Coinbase website traffic is sharply down according to Alexa. Executives at Coinbase have been leaving in droves. They know what is coming.

eh...if Coinbase is getting served yeah that be red alert. I just don't see it. They spread their cheeks to the IRS, ratting out their US customers since 2017. Same goes for Gemini and other US exchanges. If anyone is getting served it's the low hanging shitcoins that are pure scams with big bags and no actual development. Kin and VERI come to mind, and more to come.

Quote:- The US government is all over the Tether/Bitfinex operation, and they are methodically unwinding the scam. The Tether printer has mysteriously stopped, at least on the OMNI blockchain. We're not seeing the constant printing like we saw in recent months. I think that regulators may have already seized their operations. The printing of Tethers (along with alts liquidation) has been propping up the price on this dead cat bounce in recent months, but it looks like that is coming to an end.

There's other fiat coins to cover: USDC, PAX, TUSD and soon there might be coins from China, Walmart, Amazon, and Facebook. The sooner this get buried the faster the rest of the market can pump. If you recall, the last tether scare actually had people buy BTC with their tether with a resultant price increase.
08-30-2019 02:25 AM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #8324
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Quote:eh...if Coinbase is getting served yeah that be red alert. I just don't see it. They spread their cheeks to the IRS, ratting out their US customers since 2017. Same goes for Gemini and other US exchanges. If anyone is getting served it's the low hanging shitcoins that are pure scams with big bags and no actual development. Kin and VERI come to mind, and more to come.

I think the thing you're overlooking here is that the US government goes after the low hanging fruit first purposely, so that they can get favorable rulings, and then work their way up the food chain.

Remember when Coinbase had these extremely stringent rules about what they would list? XRP was a no go because it wasn't decentralized enough, etc. This was because they didn't want to list anything that their lawyers thought could be construed as an unregistered security. Now it's a free for all, and they are listing anything to capture fleeing Binance users, and to cash out well connected insiders with big bags of particular coins. What changed, the regulators gave them the green light? No, their volume dried up, and they decided it's better to risk breaking the law than to go under. The exact story of Kik/Kin.

I suspect Coinbase will be the Enron of this whole debacle. They are hated by many, sure. But they still widely have this air of credibility about them. I just smell a massive fraud underneath it. It's always the one everyone least suspects.

Like I said, the government works their way up by setting precedents. That can take a long time, but they are for sure watching what Coinbase is doing.

Quote:There's other fiat coins to cover: USDC, PAX, TUSD and soon there might be coins from China, Walmart, Amazon, and Facebook. The sooner this get buried the faster the rest of the market can pump. If you recall, the last tether scare actually had people buy BTC with their tether with a resultant price increase.

No other stablecoin is as systemic to the ecosystem as Tether. There is still a long way to fall. When Bitfinex lost the $850m last October, the crypto market was on the brink. Internal chat logs from Bitfinex showed their (quite probable) assessment that BTC could fall below $1k without intervention. Since then, Tether has been exposed as being undercollateralized, and the market has been levitating in kind of a weird denial. Yes BTC pumped, but that's because BTC is the only door on the way out of alts/Tether. When denial gives way to fear, we'll see a similar return to reality.
(This post was last modified: 08-30-2019 03:11 AM by Lampwick.)
08-30-2019 03:06 AM
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Post: #8325
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(08-30-2019 03:06 AM)Lampwick Wrote:  When denial gives way to fear, we'll see a similar return to reality.

Probably the main one that need to return to reality is you, Lampwick.

It will be interesting to see if your fears play out. I really have my doubts.

After having so much difficulties getting below $9k and the various financializaitons on the brink including the upcoming halvening, I would be surprised to see anything below $7k that might have some kind of potential to knock BTC out of its current bull market.

Until then, you must realize the significance of a bull market? The odds for up are greater than the odds for down, so hopefully for your own sake, if you really did attempt to short bitcoin from here, you have some pretty damned tight stops because you have decent chances of getting liquidated unless you are watching yourself... and all of your nonsense talk about all of the supposed doom and gloom in the space is not likely to carry much, if any weight, even if you might be hanging out in like minded bitcoin naysayer circles.

We saw a decent amount of that at various times in BTC's history. Remember in early 2017, BTC prices went above $1k, and even got close to $2k, and then corrected down to $890-ish.... there were all kinds of doomsayers that said we needed to revisit $500 and all the BIG money was getting out... Well those diptwats got wrecked the fuck because they were shorting, or they were sitting on the fence and failing to buy bitcoin, and sure bitcoin had a decent amount of BIG obstacles in 2017, but the market ended up playing out quite decently price wise.

Seems that the fundamentals in BTC are stronger (even regulation-wise) in 2019 than they were in 2017. Remember bitfinex went down in August 2016? Remember GOX went down in February 2014? Remember Chinese made a pretty decently sized locking up of a large number of their exchanges in late 2016, which caused a lot of those investors to get fucked with locked up coins, but BTC did NOT give any ratt's asses about the chinesemen getting locked out, even though they had supposedly controlled the market and the mining etc etc....

Maybe coinbase will implode, like you said, I doubt that bitcoin is going to wait around for those matters to get resolved. Maybe there would be some short term dips, depending on how it plays out and if coins actually disappear.. you really think something like that is going to happen? I think that bitcoin will be moving on, whether you and other naysayers or deniers get on board or not, and surely it is better to hold a decent amount of your coins off of exchanges and also to run a node, which is even a higher level of verification security. There are way more ways in and out of bitcoin, these days than there were in prior BTC price runs... and I doubt that more ways to short is going to keep BTC prices from going down when there continues to be all kinds of adoption, development and even emboldening of Bitcoin's hashing power security to make it much harder to attack from even rogue forces from within that might try some shenanigans.
08-30-2019 03:34 AM
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