I'm Touring The United States! Starting in June, I'm conducting private events in 23 American cities. Click here for full details.

Post Reply 
The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Author Message
Stats Offline
Pigeon

Posts: 6
Joined: May 2018
Reputation: 0
Post: #8551
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Just baught some on shakepay at 7500. will buy more at every 500 drop from here and sell at 12000.
10-23-2019 04:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tactician Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 513
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 10
Post: #8552
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Interesting post by DeepDiver about lifting the 21 million Bitcoin cap. It's something I've been thinking about for a long time.

I've worried that far into the future miners won't have the incentive to secure the network if they are only being paid by transaction fees. At the risk of oversimplifying things, miners will require some minimum $ per block processed to offset their costs.

1. If transaction fees are expensive, likely there will be less transactions in total (e.g. people won't use BTC for microtransactions outside of Lightning). This is fine, but it pushes BTC more into a 'store of value' route and allows other coins to gain market share by touting their low transaction costs.

2. If transaction fees are cheap, then there needs to be a ton of transaction volume on-chain to provide enough fees for miners. This can happen, but innovations like the Lightning Network and centralization/custody solutions are providing alternatives to on-chain transactions and more infrastructure like this will be developed going forward (e.g. Your average Coinbase user can send BTC to other Coinbase users without paying miner fees, as Coinbase does the transaction within their own system).

A last minor concern is that transaction volume spikes all over the place. Using today as an example, transaction volume was chilling at around 1,000 transactions before spiking up to over 19,000 transactions during today's dump. Allowing the 21 million Bitcoin cap to be surpassed through maintaining block rewards will provide more consistency to miners (i.e. consistent block reward + variable transaction fees). This is not a big deal now, but miners may be incentivized to turn off some rigs during periods of low transaction volume + it would suck for the few hobbiest miners to finally discover a block, but there's barely any fee reward inside, haha.

(Personally, I think continued halvenings will put tremendous pressure on miners because if BTC price cannot keep up with miner costs, then miners will shut down. This kind of puts BTC adoption on a 'schedule' instead of allowing it to play out more organically. Anyway, I'm just putting this here as a disclosure since it is a bias of mine and it may have coloured the rest of my post. I get that halvenings are needed to incentivize early adoption, but I just feel that their schedule is too aggressive.)

If it were up to me, I'd keep a block reward minimum of like 6.25 Bitcoins going out into the future. This also has the benefit of replacing some coins that people lost due to broken hard drives or silly mistakes.

With that said, I can see why an immutable cap of 21 million coins is important to the community. Changes to BTC's monetary policy kind of go against the 'idea' and origin of Bitcoin and undermine trust in its principles. Would love to hear your thoughts.

p.s. Not an attack on Bitcoin. I love the solutions BTC has provided. At any rate, there's like 100 years until the last Bitcoin will be mined, but it's fun to think ahead haha.
10-23-2019 06:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Tactician's post:
Tail Gunner, JayJuanGee
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8553
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-23-2019 06:02 PM)Tactician Wrote:  Interesting post by DeepDiver about lifting the 21 million Bitcoin cap.

Yes, this is a real mind-blower, because the abandonment of a main pillar of BitCoin could lead to a collapse of confidence in it. If they can simply abandon such a key pillar of BitCoin, then how is it different than any fiat currency?

As James Rickards has stated in regard to fiat currencies, there is an "invisible confidence boundary" where people suddenly lose confidence in a "hypersynchronous phase transition," which means the specific moment when the pressure or temperature is just right to cause something to shift from one state to another. For example, heated water can appear very calm for a long period of time, even as it becomes extremely hot, until the very moment that it begins to boil and evaporate into steam. Such a disturbance can happen quite quickly after a long period of apparent calm.

Quote:There's an invisible confidence boundary where everyday Americans will suddenly lose confidence in Fed liabilities (aka "Dollars") in a hypersynchronous phase transition. No one knows exactly where the boundary is, but no one wants to find out the hard way.

https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/f...-060820181


Raising BitCoin's total supply could lead to such a crisis in confidence. IMO, they are playing with fire.
(This post was last modified: 10-23-2019 06:41 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-23-2019 06:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like Tail Gunner's post:
Tactician, jeffreyjerpp
[email protected] Offline
Pelican
****

Posts: 1,310
Joined: Feb 2016
Reputation: 20
Post: #8554
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
You guys are talking about something that might happen in 120 years. I don't think anyone but a tiny minority is seriously entertaining the idea the raising the cap.

I put a short in for BTC but held off longing XRP because I was afraid it would drop with BTC and I turned out to be right.

I watched Zuckerberg face off congress and it seems like this caused the dump. I couldn't watch more than 40 minutes of virtue signalling and verbal abuse from congress.
10-23-2019 07:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like [email protected]'s post:
Tactician, Kid Twist, SpursFan741
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8555
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-22-2019 07:57 PM)SlickyBoy Wrote:  
(10-20-2019 10:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  This about 12 minute YouTube video has Libra/bitcoin presentations of: 1) Tim Draper, 2) Andreas Antonopolis, 3) bitcoin the cartoon character and 4) John Macafee. Ultimately Antonopolis probably gets to the jist of the matter, in that the dynamics of Libra coin are just not going to be likely to get to bitcoin's level of real meaningful disruptiveness.

Libra or not, I've never been a big fan of bitcoin as a replacement currency and the fact that Tim Draper pops up in any crypto currency discussion doesn't do anything to inspire me. He's the same asshat who was still shilling for Holmes over at Theranos long after the lights came on, everyone else realized how ugly the girl was and hit the road. That he's in the same boat as McAfee? Well, at least McAfee has the excuse of snorting coke of a hooker's ass to cloud his judgment.

I understand people wanting to make a profit on the hype, but as a genuine replacement currency it doesn't make any sense. The more transactions made, the longer the block chain gets and the more cumbersome the crypto currency becomes. To my understanding they all use some form of block chain.

That said, there are very useful applications for block chain technology, but replacing currency isn't one of them. Good for anyone here who's made a good run on crypto hype, but I would get out of it while you can.

Are you recognizing the difference between bitcoin and other crypto currencies, or are you just conceptually lumping them all together and thinking of them as the same thing?

Your whole concept of what's going on seems to be a bit backwards. Money is likely the only application that matters in terms of a reason to have a blockchain, because blockchains are extremely inefficient - but for money, the bitcoin blockchain is providing a kind of service that has never previously been providing, and that is what is so amazing about it. There may be some inefficiency with the redundancy and even the power consumption, but the incentives that are built within are verifying the transactions that are communicated and the competition for hashrate will likely cause more efficiencies in terms of power consumption and likely in the end cause usages of power/electricity sources that would not otherwise be used.

In terms of your own stance, it appears that you are not investing in bitcoin at all? Well, if that is so, then you are likely going to miss out on the great transfer of wealth that has taken place, unless, of course, you change your mind. It is likely going to take a while for such wealth transfer to occur, so you may be able to get in on one of the dips, whether this one or perhaps the next one... that seems to be in approximately 4 year cycles. No one knows for sure, but invest as you will and we will see how these matters play out.
10-24-2019 06:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8556
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-22-2019 11:58 PM)arafat scarf Wrote:  
JayJuanGee Wrote:Sometimes when we are sharing information, we try to keep out some personal privacy matters or try to save OpSec, and if my use of percentages is confusing to you, then you could ask me to clarify something that might be confusing or if I might have mistated something or left out some kind of explanation that would help to make it more clear.

Missing the point, the exact percentages isn't confusing at all.

The point is that it's ridiculous when you say that you're "just as completely neutral and valid in your opinions" as a professional investment fund portfolio manager given the fact that the vast majority of your portfolio is in Bitcoin and given your temperament on the topic. Many people would consider it foolhardy when you say that "NOT diversifying into gold and having BTC as a dollar hedge is ... prudent".

Maybe it is a good idea to follow many people when making your investment decisions? Hopefully in the end you are deciding for yourself, and if you conclude that bitcoin is NOT something worth investing into, then that is your choice. I already made my points.


(10-22-2019 11:58 PM)arafat scarf Wrote:  From reading this thread it appears more like you're talking your book and that you have a peculiar, malignant attachment to Bitcoin, albeit fortuitous, rather than good sense.

I have been sharing information about bitcoin, and if guys are able to either learn about bitcoin or learn about themselves, then that is a good thing. I also have been posting bitcoin related information here in order to explore my own ideas and bitcoin related strategies.... Sorry that you believe that I am too wedded to my ideas, or you believe that having strong feelings on certain topics might not still allow someone to also NOT be talking their book. You are entitled to your own opinions and conclusions.


(10-22-2019 11:58 PM)arafat scarf Wrote:  In contrast, Tail Gunner's perspective isn't that of a total shill and seems thoughtful in providing a variety of references from economists and investment fund managers about those assets that historically do what Bitcoin purports to do for hedging against inflation.

I thought that TG said that he did not really know too much about bitcoin, and he was largely posting about gold?

Hey, there is no problem with guys talking about diversification or allocation issues and having differences of opinions about the extent to which they should diversify and in what assets. I think that tail gunner and I have made our points on that topic, several times.

(10-22-2019 11:58 PM)arafat scarf Wrote:  To that end, I find his comments relevant and informative here.

Sure, there could be some relevance to the extent that he is talking about bitcoin or diversifying his holdings, but probably not as much to the extent that he seems to be just pumping gold without really knowing much if anything about bitcoin.. or not even really trying to learn about bitcoin beyond some superficial observations.... In the end, it's up to him whether to post or not and what to post.... so we have probably already beat this angle to death, no?

(10-23-2019 08:46 AM)SpursFan741 Wrote:  Yea, right JayJuanGee and Swordfish we are indeed in a bull market hhahahahahah. BEAR modus is on like I and a few other posters mentionned earlier here, based on clear technical Analysis.


We broke the support level of 7700 and see it go down to 6.5$k for the short term. My short got filled at 7650$

We are likely in an ongoing correction, not a bear market, and maybe we are talking semantics and technicalities rather than attaching any meaning. Anyhow, we will see if the bull market is converting into a bear market. Hard to conclude that we are in a bear market when the bull market was more or less tentatively confirmed in Mid-May and when we have not even gotten close to reaching the April 1, $4,200 break out

Sure, maybe we don't have to get as low as $4,200 in order to presume more than a correction, here?
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 06:19 PM by JayJuanGee.)
10-24-2019 06:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8557
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 06:14 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have been sharing information about bitcoin, and if guys are able to either learn about bitcoin or learn about themselves, then that is a good thing. I also have been posting bitcoin related information here in order to explore my own ideas and bitcoin related strategies....

While perhaps not always pertaining to BitCoin, that is exactly why I periodically post here. I find that I learn things, and that I delve a bit deeper into my own preconceived notions (which certainly could be erroneous), when I analyze and discuss concepts or explain things to others. It is this cumulative accretion of knowledge and analytic ability that serves to prepare us for a most precarious economic future in an almost unprecedented time of financial uncertainty.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 06:36 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 06:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
JayJuanGee
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8558
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 06:33 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:14 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have been sharing information about bitcoin, and if guys are able to either learn about bitcoin or learn about themselves, then that is a good thing. I also have been posting bitcoin related information here in order to explore my own ideas and bitcoin related strategies....

While perhaps not always pertaining to BitCoin, that is exactly why I periodically post here. I find that I learn things, and that I delve a bit deeper into my own preconceived notions (which certainly could be erroneous), when I analyze and discuss concepts or explain things to others. It is this cumulative accretion of knowledge and analytic ability that serves to prepare us for a most precarious economic future in an almost unprecedented time of financial uncertainty.

Fair enough tailgunner.

Now for a completely neutral commercial break.

Watch this bitcoin (GBTC - investment) perspective "drop gold" campaign advert. It's only one minute. I am sure that you will be totally convinced:

https://twitter.com/GrayscaleInvest/stat...57217?s=20
10-24-2019 06:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8559
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 06:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:33 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:14 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have been sharing information about bitcoin, and if guys are able to either learn about bitcoin or learn about themselves, then that is a good thing. I also have been posting bitcoin related information here in order to explore my own ideas and bitcoin related strategies....

While perhaps not always pertaining to BitCoin, that is exactly why I periodically post here. I find that I learn things, and that I delve a bit deeper into my own preconceived notions (which certainly could be erroneous), when I analyze and discuss concepts or explain things to others. It is this cumulative accretion of knowledge and analytic ability that serves to prepare us for a most precarious economic future in an almost unprecedented time of financial uncertainty.

Fair enough tailgunner.

Now for a completely neutral commercial break.

Watch this bitcoin (GBTC - investment) perspective "drop gold" campaign advert. It's only one minute. I am sure that you will be totally convinced:

https://twitter.com/GrayscaleInvest/stat...57217?s=20

Well, I liked the music in the video. "O Fortuna" was written in the 13th century as a medieval Latin poem, which was part of a collection known as the Carmina Burana. It literally means "Oh Fate," and it is a complaint about the inescapable power of fate.

Twenty-four poems in Carmina Burana were set to music by Carl Orff in 1936. I own a modern version on LP performed by Ray Manzarek of "The Doors."

The lyrics of "O Fortuna" (translated into English) seem rather apropos to our discussion of a potential economic collapse:

Quote:O Fortune,
like the moon
you are changeable,
ever waxing
ever waning;
hateful life
first oppresses
and then soothes
playing with mental clarity;
poverty
and power
it melts them like ice.

Fate – monstrous
and empty,
you whirling wheel,
you are malevolent,
well-being is vain
and always fades to nothing,
shadowed
and veiled
you plague me too;
now through the game
I bring my bare back
to your villainy.

Fate is against me
in health
and virtue,
driven on
and weighted down,
always enslaved.
So at this hour
without delay
pluck the vibrating strings;
since Fate
strikes down the strong,
everyone weep with me!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_Fortuna





Now, if I could only figure out how to derail this thread. Smile
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 07:32 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 07:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Polniy_Sostav
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8560
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 07:22 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:49 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:33 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 06:14 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have been sharing information about bitcoin, and if guys are able to either learn about bitcoin or learn about themselves, then that is a good thing. I also have been posting bitcoin related information here in order to explore my own ideas and bitcoin related strategies....

While perhaps not always pertaining to BitCoin, that is exactly why I periodically post here. I find that I learn things, and that I delve a bit deeper into my own preconceived notions (which certainly could be erroneous), when I analyze and discuss concepts or explain things to others. It is this cumulative accretion of knowledge and analytic ability that serves to prepare us for a most precarious economic future in an almost unprecedented time of financial uncertainty.

Fair enough tailgunner.

Now for a completely neutral commercial break.

Watch this bitcoin (GBTC - investment) perspective "drop gold" campaign advert. It's only one minute. I am sure that you will be totally convinced:

https://twitter.com/GrayscaleInvest/stat...57217?s=20

Well, I liked the music in the video. "O Fortuna" was written in the 13th century as a medieval Latin poem, which was part of a collection known as the Carmina Burana. It literally means "Oh Fate," and it is a complaint about the inescapable power of fate.

Twenty-four poems in Carmina Burana were set to music by Carl Orff in 1936. I own a modern version on LP performed by Ray Manzarek of "The Doors."

The lyrics of "O Fortuna" (translated into English) seem rather apropos to our discussion of a potential economic collapse:

Quote:O Fortune,
like the moon
you are changeable,
ever waxing
ever waning;
hateful life
first oppresses
and then soothes
playing with mental clarity;
poverty
and power
it melts them like ice.

Fate – monstrous
and empty,
you whirling wheel,
you are malevolent,
well-being is vain
and always fades to nothing,
shadowed
and veiled
you plague me too;
now through the game
I bring my bare back
to your villainy.

Fate is against me
in health
and virtue,
driven on
and weighted down,
always enslaved.
So at this hour
without delay
pluck the vibrating strings;
since Fate
strikes down the strong,
everyone weep with me!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_Fortuna





Now, if I could only figure out how to derail this thread. Smile

Their marketers probably chose those kinds of underpinnings on purpose in order to attempt to send a deep and subliminal message - perhaps even exaggerating the level of bitcoin's paradigm shifting nature including understanding of the greatest wealth transfer that man has ever witnessed? From no coiners to coiners. Wink
10-24-2019 07:48 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
rpg Offline
Ostrich
****
Silver Member

Posts: 2,130
Joined: Jul 2014
Reputation: 12
Post: #8561
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
People are gobbling up this cheap coin and it looks like the dumps have tapered off.
I got my bitcoin goal in. Any more I can add at these low prices will make it sweeter.
10-24-2019 09:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes rpg's post:
JayJuanGee
Lampwick Offline
Robin
*
Gold Member

Posts: 221
Joined: Aug 2017
Reputation: 12
Post: #8562
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Staying short.
10-24-2019 09:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8563
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 09:47 PM)rpg Wrote:  People are gobbling up this cheap coin and it looks like the dumps have tapered off. I got my bitcoin goal in. Any more I can add at these low prices will make it sweeter.

(10-24-2019 09:49 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Staying short.

Someone's going to win. Someone's going to lose. We shall see.

For me, this is easy. I only make asymmetric trades. I pick up the money when it is just sitting over there in the corner.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 10:23 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 10:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8564
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 10:22 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 09:47 PM)rpg Wrote:  People are gobbling up this cheap coin and it looks like the dumps have tapered off. I got my bitcoin goal in. Any more I can add at these low prices will make it sweeter.

(10-24-2019 09:49 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Staying short.

Someone's going to win. Someone's going to lose. We shall see.

For me, this is easy. I only make asymmetric trades. I pick up the money when it is just sitting over there in the corner.

You are like a puzzle, Tail Gunner, but to me, it seems as if you are waiting for more downward BTC prices. Perhaps sub $6k? Maybe even lower, such as sub $3k?

You may or may not realize that Bitcoin has a history of punishing a quite a few fence sitters or those persons waiting for "bargain basement" BTC prices that never end up happening.

Maybe you are correct in your thinking about what level of pain is necessary in bitcoin this time? And maybe you don't care if you don't get into BTC in the event that your target price is not reached because you are ONLY willing to get in at what you perceive to be be bargain basement prices?

How many other investments have you foregone investment because of such bargain basement hunting tactics? Maybe you will not admit to experiencing those kinds of opportunity costs?

Of course, you likely already realize that I have employed a largely buy and accumulate btc strategy, and I have done that with all my investments because largely I do not try to time markets, especially if there is a decent amount of volatility in it.

Anyhow, you also might realize that BTC has paid off quite well for a lot of people (including me) with a buy and accumulate strategy.

Sure, it is possible that I could have done better in my BTC investment if I had attempted to time the market (and had gotten successful or lucky), but surely I feel good about my ongoing BTC strategy because it has allowed me to become quite rich and to sleep quite well at night and to amass an amount of money that I had not even really aspired to amass - in other words I had acquired a decent amount of money that were largely windfall profits (Aka Icing on the cake above and beyond what I had expected in the most bullish of scenarios).

So, we will see whether blood is already on the streets currently in bitcoinlandia, or if you, tailgunner, are going to be able to experience a scenario that is even more unambiguously clear about blood being on the streets of bitcoinlandia, and maybe that would have to be sub $2k for you to be motivated, even though it is quite doubtful that BTC prices are going to get even close to such an unambiguous blood in the streets price level, such as $2k.
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 11:25 PM by JayJuanGee.)
10-24-2019 11:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8565
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 11:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  How many other investments have you foregone investment because of such bargain basement hunting tactics? Maybe you will not admit to experiencing those kinds of opportunity costs?

I am a cautious investor. All the stars must align for me to make a major investment. I made a significant investment this year that took years of research and analysis. Some years, I do not invest at all.

I am an even more cautious speculator. I only make asymmetric speculative trades. To me, BC is purely a speculation. I would take a look at BC if it began to approach a double-bottom near $3,200. If it does not hit that mark, who cares? I don't. I will just move on to the next potential opportunity.

Walking away is not an opportunity cost. It is simply a strategic retreat. It is like a mugger looking for the perfect victim. That guy is too big. That one might be packing. Hey, there is a little old lady clutching a purse. How many successful high-probability asymmetric speculative trades do you need per year? One? Two?

Over-trading may be the single biggest problem in the trading / investing world today. I read this article just today:

Quote:As for the expensive part, I have written before that high fees should not be the enemy of investors, because high fees discourage overtrading. People in the brokerage industry have made public statements about how they hope zero commissions will not lead to overtrading.

Belief in the upward-sloping demand curve persists.

Of course, people will overtrade. The goal here is to buy and hold. High commissions encourage people to hold…for long periods of time.

I sincerely believe this—that about half the country should not be involved in the stock market at all. They should save, in a bank account. Maybe I would change their mind if, once invested, they were denied access to their brokerage account until age 70. But there is an irresistible temptation to sell the winners and let the losers run. It is human nature. People got Nobel Prizes over this.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10t...your-dice#
(This post was last modified: 10-24-2019 11:48 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-24-2019 11:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like Tail Gunner's post:
JayJuanGee, Tactician, The Black Knight
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8566
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 11:39 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-24-2019 11:17 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  How many other investments have you foregone investment because of such bargain basement hunting tactics? Maybe you will not admit to experiencing those kinds of opportunity costs?

I am a cautious investor. All the stars must align for me to make a major investment. I made a significant investment this year that took years of research and analysis. Some years, I do not invest at all.

I am an even more cautious speculator. I only make asymmetric speculative trades. To me, BC is purely a speculation. I would take a look at BC if it began to approach a double-bottom near $3,200. If it does not hit that mark, who cares? I don't. I will just move on to the next.

Walking away is not an opportunity cost. It is simply a strategic retreat. It is like a mugger looking for the perfect victim. That guy is too big. That one might be packing. Hey, there is a little old lady clutching a purse. How many successful high-probability asymmetric speculative trades do you need per year? One? Two?

Over-trading may be the single biggest problem in the trading / investing world today.


That's all fair enough, especially if you are lacking that much conviction about the underlying asset.

There are certain other crypto assets that I clearly had opportunities to buy and I could have made more money than I did in bitcoin. Bitcoin went up about 80x from October 2015 to December 2017. There were some other projects that went up several times higher than BTC - maybe even 10x higher. I would have never invested in those projects, because I had no conviction about them. So in that regard, I understand what you are saying.

I also understand that if you know what you are looking for, and you have other investments that meet your criteria, then you don't really need as many that hit the ball out of the park.

So, I suspect that the odds are quite high that you are going to continue to be a no coiner for a decently large amount of time into the future. You have every right to strike those kinds of balances in terms of your own comfort level.
10-24-2019 11:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 2 users Like JayJuanGee's post:
Tail Gunner, Tactician
Deepdiver Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 3,306
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 96
Post: #8567
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Another interesting BTC angle... October 25, 2019:

Earlier this month, Peter Todd, an ex-Bitcoin developer has spoken out about his views on the Monero community, stating that he believes Monero is backed by a group of very honest people, despite their passion for all things private. According to reports at the time, Todd stated:

“The XMR community seems honest and represents the coin accurately.”

Furthermore, Todd believes that the future could see Bitcoin and Monero working more closely together. Todd stated:

“Monero is perfectly blinding and Bitcoin is perfectly binding. Smaller numbers of currencies are more efficient than a larger number so I would rather see something like add-ons to Bitcoin, where you could take your Bitcoins and move it off into something like Monero.”

What Todd is discussing here is the idea that though he thinks Bitcoin is better, it will eventually become less efficient because of the sheer number of Bitcoins in circulation. Users can gain access to something more efficient through moving their Bitcoin over the Monero in order to grow and develop their own portfolios.

We know that the Monero community is one of the biggest and most passionate communities within the industry. This is mostly because Monero is a bit of a veteran, as a privacy coin it is often seen as an industry leader and thus, it’s one of the biggest cryptocurrencies in the markets to date. Governments however fail to recognise this and sadly believe that privacy coins are reserved by criminals and those who wish to mask their identity for illicit reasons. This may not be the case, we all have a right to our own data security and we all have a right to remain anonymous, as law abiding citizens. The Monero community recognises that and thankfully, Monero is going to go very far as a result of it.

Source: https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/05/the-mo...est-people

Will be interesting to see what the BTC "Core Dev Team" winds up doing as the halvings reduce the Mining rewards and thus miners numbers consolidate to the lowest cost locations with lower temperatures to cool mining gear and ultra-cheap Electricity. (Norway Glacial Rivers, Iceland Thermal, China Solar/Gov subsidized Tibetan mountain rivers and of course locations featuring the lowest taxes ...)

###

Deepdiver - Nuke Boats Forever!
"You do not have to be a perfect person to be a perfect PATRIOT!"

Official Whitehouse.gov President Trump's achievements: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-adminis...lishments/

Communist Freaking Red China's Plan to Undermine the USA and the West:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...18-PDF.pdf

The Naked Communists 45 Goals for the USA:
https://www.beliefnet.com/columnists/wat...-1963.html
10-25-2019 06:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 3 users Like Deepdiver's post:
Tactician, Tail Gunner, Momo007
Jaydublin Offline
Pelican
****

Posts: 1,662
Joined: Jun 2012
Reputation: 5
Post: #8568
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Breaking 9,500. At this rate we will have that 16k October price on Halloween!

Kidding about 16k but what a ride. Guy at work was just talking about how concerned he was today at lunch. An hour later it spiked up 1k and looks like we are breaking out big time.
10-25-2019 08:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Jaydublin's post:
JayJuanGee
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8569
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-25-2019 06:10 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Another interesting BTC angle... October 25, 2019:

Earlier this month, Peter Todd, an ex-Bitcoin developer has spoken out about his views on the Monero community, stating that he believes Monero is backed by a group of very honest people, despite their passion for all things private. According to reports at the time, Todd stated:

“The XMR community seems honest and represents the coin accurately.”

Furthermore, Todd believes that the future could see Bitcoin and Monero working more closely together. Todd stated:

“Monero is perfectly blinding and Bitcoin is perfectly binding. Smaller numbers of currencies are more efficient than a larger number so I would rather see something like add-ons to Bitcoin, where you could take your Bitcoins and move it off into something like Monero.”

What Todd is discussing here is the idea that though he thinks Bitcoin is better, it will eventually become less efficient because of the sheer number of Bitcoins in circulation. Users can gain access to something more efficient through moving their Bitcoin over the Monero in order to grow and develop their own portfolios.

We know that the Monero community is one of the biggest and most passionate communities within the industry. This is mostly because Monero is a bit of a veteran, as a privacy coin it is often seen as an industry leader and thus, it’s one of the biggest cryptocurrencies in the markets to date. Governments however fail to recognise this and sadly believe that privacy coins are reserved by criminals and those who wish to mask their identity for illicit reasons. This may not be the case, we all have a right to our own data security and we all have a right to remain anonymous, as law abiding citizens. The Monero community recognises that and thankfully, Monero is going to go very far as a result of it.

Source: https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/05/the-mo...est-people

Will be interesting to see what the BTC "Core Dev Team" winds up doing as the halvings reduce the Mining rewards and thus miners numbers consolidate to the lowest cost locations with lower temperatures to cool mining gear and ultra-cheap Electricity. (Norway Glacial Rivers, Iceland Thermal, China Solar/Gov subsidized Tibetan mountain rivers and of course locations featuring the lowest taxes ...)

###


Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me.

Yesterday, we had a bunch of members (not everyone of course) either bragging about how smart that they were because they were either not buying BTC, they were waiting for lower prices or they were shorting BTC.

How is that waiting working out for you?

Seems like another one of those occasions in which only a few members are willing to suggest that guys should be buying and/or at least adequately prepared for UP, just in case. The quick reversal seems to be the more important BTC story at the moment rather than some nonsense trying to suggest either that bitcoin is broken in some way or that some shitcoin, such as monero has much if any advantage over bitcoin that is going to cause it to take any kind of market share from bitcoin in terms of bitcoin's ongoing lead in the space, decently strong fundamentals and also NOT having anything sufficiently or meaningfully wrong with it... so you see baloney assertions of largely making things up. Trying to turn positives into negatives, etc etc etc.

The fact of the matter is that bitcoin has all kinds of hashpower getting thrown at it on a regular basis, so if there are assertions that miners are going to gravitate to some other coin, then those assertions seem to be delusional at best.

Yeah, when BTC prices are going down, none of us really have any kind of confidences concerning when the bottom is in, exactly. So yeah even I was getting a bit concerned that there may be some need to prepare for sub $5k and to tweak some of my downside buy orders in to account for such, possibilities, but getting more than a 25% in less than 12 hours gotta give some pause regarding the ongoing feasibility of the correction, and maybe such correction is over?

Yes, that is what King daddy bitcoin does. Punish the shorters, the fence sitters, the no coiners and the altcoin pumpeners, except alt coins do seem to be pumpening currently, too.
10-25-2019 08:35 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Tail Gunner Offline
Hummingbird
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 2,806
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 47
Post: #8570
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-25-2019 08:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Yesterday, we had a bunch of members (not everyone of course) either bragging about how smart that they were because they were either not buying BTC, they were waiting for lower prices or they were shorting BTC.

How is that waiting working out for you?

This volatility, with such wild price swings, is definitive proof that BC is not stable enough to act as a store of value or as a currency, which was its original purpose. A decentralized digital currency with such wild volatility is absolutely useless as a currency.

You could buy BC today to use in a transaction tomorrow and lose far more money than what is involved in the underlying transaction. As such, it is an unmitigated failure with regard to its original purpose. If BC does not serve a purpose as a stable store of value or as a stable currency, people may eventually realize its lack of utility and abandon ship in droves. Refer to my earlier post about the "invisible confidence boundary."

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537...pid2032017

In regard to a speculation in BC, that is why I stated yesterday that I would only enter a BC trade as an asymmetric trade (i.e., at an entry point with very limited downside), because the last week has proven that anything is possible with the price of BC. That is called gambling.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2019 09:42 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-25-2019 09:37 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
[-] The following 1 user Likes Tail Gunner's post:
Polniy_Sostav
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8571
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-25-2019 08:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Yesterday, we had a bunch of members (not everyone of course) either bragging about how smart that they were because they were either not buying BTC, they were waiting for lower prices or they were shorting BTC.

How is that waiting working out for you?

This volatility, with such wild price swings, is definitive proof that BC is not stable enough to act as a store of value or as a currency, which was its original purpose.

Bitcoin does not have original purposes that are so narrowly restrictive. Who told you that bitcoin had such original purposes? You have been reading the wrong sources.

Bitcoin has an adoption curve that is being worked out, and incentives to secure it, and in the longer term value is likely to go up and up and up because there are incentives to secure the network and to thereby secure coins.

Of course, you can already use bitcoin to transmit value. You can also likely use bitcoin to store value, especially if you are able to deal with the almost inevitable high level of volatility that is going to continue for many years to come. If you are able to put systems into place in order to protect yourself from the nearly inevitable likelihood of volatility, then you are likely to profit stupendously as long as your minimum time line is 3.5 years to 5 years or longer.

Surely BTC volatility is both up and down, but it has very great probabilities to have asymmetric upside potential and thus a balancing of the volatility to the upside while price is being discovered during its early stages of adoption.

So you could only wish that gold had such upside volatility, even though of course, it can be somewhat inconvenient if you do not attempt to have systems to psychologically and financially prepare yourself for such...including price battles that involve a kind of war. hahahahaaha


(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  A decentralized digital currency with such wild volatility is absolutely useless as a currency.

Not useless, but can be more difficult during earliest stages of adoption.


(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  You could buy BC today to use in a transaction tomorrow and lose far more money than what is involved in the underlying transaction.

That's why you should be careful, especially during more volatile periods... and also attempt to protect yourself financially and psychologically, if you are astute enough to figure out ways to attempt to accomplish such.

(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  As such, it is an unmitigated failure with regard to its original purpose.

Yeah, but you do not get to define what is bitcoin's supposed "original purpose" or any other purposes that it has. Bitcoin is part of a market, and each person who choses to get involved in bitcoin has the choice to choose how and the extent to which s/he believes that bitcoin can be useful to him/her. If you do not believe that it is useful to you, then you have every right to abstain.

However, instead of completely abstaining, you want to complain about bitcoin's going up nearly 30% today in less than 10 hours and now correcting back down. There are ways to profit from this volatility.. do you know that?

(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  If BC does not serve a purpose as a stable store of value or as a stable currency, people may eventually realize its lack of utility and abandon ship in droves.


I doubt it. Part of the problem with the volatility is that there is a battle about BTC's price, but there are also a lot of new people coming into bitcoin on an ongoing basis that causes additional volatility, especially to the upside.

(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  Refer to my earlier post about the "invisible confidence boundary."

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537...pid2032017

Your assertions about lack of confidence are largely theoretical and pie in the sky assertions that are not very likely to play out in reality. Accordingly, if you believe that you can choose NOT to invest, but instead, you seem to feel some kind of duty would to attempt to convince other people NOT to invest. Go figure?

(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  In regard to a speculation in BC, that is why I stated yesterday that I would only enter a BC trade as an asymmetric trade (i.e., at an entry point with very limited downside), because the last week has proven that anything is possible with the price of BC. That is called gambling.

Just because you stated your preference does not mean shit in terms of what other guys might want to do, including guys who might want to figure out reasonable and prudent ways to invest in bitcoin. Just because you have a seemingly dumbass system that causes a pretty damned high likelihood that you are going to be a no coiner for a long ass time into the future, at least until you change your thinking on the topic, does not mean that such a way of thinking would be or should be prudent for other guys attempting to think about reasonable ways into bitcoin.

As many guys likely already realize, Bitcoin is already an asymmetric bet with a lot of upside potential.... You do not have to wait for bargain basement prices in order to get started, even though that is what you want to do. So fucking what? The BTC price is not currently moving in your preferred sub $3k direction, and is NOT likely to do so.. perhaps never ever ever.

Anyhow, guys can treat bitcoin as gambling or they can attempt to be more systematic in their approach, which will likely pay off quite well, especially if guys don't invest more than they can afford to lose and take at least a 3.5 year to 5 year timeline. I would also recommend dollar cost average investing, especially for guys who might be a bit more leery and might not have lump sums of capital available to them, but surely more experienced investment oriented guys might have their own systems in that regard, including lump sum investing... but dollar cost average investing tends to be very good for less sophisticated investors and also investors who do not want to spend much time thinking about short term (including periods of volatile) price movements.. which are nearly inevitable in bitcoin as we have already discussed.
10-25-2019 10:35 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8572
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-23-2019 08:46 AM)SpursFan741 Wrote:  Yea, right JayJuanGee and Swordfish we are indeed in a bull market hhahahahahah. BEAR modus is on like I and a few other posters mentionned earlier here, based on clear technical Analysis.


We broke the support level of 7700 and see it go down to 6.5$k for the short term. My short got filled at 7650$

I spotted a never-been-released secret video of SpurFan741 - making friendly with a bear.





So embarrassing!!!!!

Blush
10-25-2019 10:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
jeffreyjerpp Offline
Kingfisher
***

Posts: 504
Joined: Jul 2016
Reputation: 12
Post: #8573
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-25-2019 08:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Yesterday, we had a bunch of members (not everyone of course) either bragging about how smart that they were because they were either not buying BTC, they were waiting for lower prices or they were shorting BTC.

How is that waiting working out for you?

This volatility, with such wild price swings, is definitive proof that BC is not stable enough to act as a store of value or as a currency, which was its original purpose. A decentralized digital currency with such wild volatility is absolutely useless as a currency.

Precisely.

This price pump is INSANE, albeit in a good way, but basically confirms the speculative nature of BTC.

That's fine- speculating in BTC has paid off handsomely for many, and could continue to do so in the future.

But endorsing a "buy and hold" strategy for a speculative asset is obviously not optimal, in fact it is crazy. I stress that I'm saying this as somehow who fundamentally likes BTC, both technically and politically, and has done my research.

A great idea, and a major innovation....but still definitely a speculation, at this point anyways.
10-25-2019 11:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8574
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-24-2019 09:49 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  Staying short.

Lampwick spotted this morning trying to break below $7,400 with his BTC short.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8E4yvju.g...ri5d73_MvA]

Need to feel bad for the courageous guy, no?
10-25-2019 11:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
JayJuanGee Offline
Crow
*****
Gold Member

Posts: 6,205
Joined: Aug 2013
Reputation: 79
Post: #8575
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(10-25-2019 11:01 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(10-25-2019 09:37 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-25-2019 08:35 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Yesterday, we had a bunch of members (not everyone of course) either bragging about how smart that they were because they were either not buying BTC, they were waiting for lower prices or they were shorting BTC.

How is that waiting working out for you?

This volatility, with such wild price swings, is definitive proof that BC is not stable enough to act as a store of value or as a currency, which was its original purpose. A decentralized digital currency with such wild volatility is absolutely useless as a currency.

Precisely.

This price pump is INSANE, albeit in a good way, but basically confirms the speculative nature of BTC.

That's fine- speculating in BTC has paid off handsomely for many, and could continue to do so in the future.

But endorsing a "buy and hold" strategy for a speculative asset is obviously not optimal, in fact it is crazy. I stress that I'm saying this as somehow who fundamentally likes BTC, both technically and politically, and has done my research.

A great idea, and a major innovation....but still definitely a speculation, at this point anyways.

There are a lot of BTC holders that recommend a buy and hold strategy, and so far, such strategy has tended to pay off quite well for all of them who have held at least 3.5 years from the time of any purchase that they had made, including any time that they bought at the top. I recommend dollar cost averaging continuing to buy since it is a bit more risky to just buy at the top and to wait it out, even if historically that has worked out for everyone, so far, you seem to have better odds of better results if you just continue to dollar cost average buy.

Trading tends to screw a lot of people unless they are somewhat skilled in that direction, but trying to trade is likely NOT going to work out so well for regular people especially if they try to game it or time it too much and they don't really have a continue to buy strategy or some other systematic way that ensures buying low and selling high (to the extent that they choose to sell once in profits).
10-25-2019 11:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Like Post Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Possibly Related Threads...
Thread: Author Replies: Views: Last Post
  IRS: Bitcoin is not currency assman 23 7,811 07-06-2019 08:37 PM
Last Post: Deepdiver
  Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Profit & Loss Trackers & Capital Gains Calculators jamaicabound 2 4,812 06-01-2019 09:03 AM
Last Post: Dr. Howard
  DACing for Cryptodummies: Hassle-Free and Easy Bitcoin Investing SamuelBRoberts 108 33,520 12-26-2018 08:27 PM
Last Post: redbeard

Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)

Contact Us | RooshV.com | Return to Top | Return to Content | Mobile Version | RSS Syndication