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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1101
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-28-2014 01:32 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Honestly I'm wondering if there's going to be a "long term" Jay there's just too much Gov pressure increasing.

I have NO problem with guys having second thoughts, BTC scepticism and/or different opinions about the value of BTC or in their thinking about how long BTC can last. Frequently, I come across news pieces that cause me to question the long term viability of BTC. In that regard, there MAY never be another UPspurt with BTC.

With any risky investment, investors are gambling on the potential for the UPside....

Definitely, BTC remains a moving target... and I am of the belief that the upside for BTC remains very large, and I am willing to bet a certain small fraction of my investment portfolio on the possibility that a BTC UPside will occur.

I may lose money, or I may only break even after two years or I may win the lottery.

It seems that similar things could be said about the risks of any volatile asset classes, and personally, I would NOT put all my eggs into the BTC basket (even though I know that some people have done such).
01-28-2014 02:07 PM
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aphelion Offline
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Post: #1102
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Okay, quick question - why is BTC $800 at Vault of Satoshi and $1000 at MTGOX? What's the difference?

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01-28-2014 03:20 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1103
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
You can't get your money out of Gox so they just trade in limbo.
01-28-2014 03:25 PM
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aphelion Offline
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Post: #1104
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Ahhhhhh I see. They're basically holding up cash like the poker sites did a few years ago before they went busto.

So VoS is reliable then (so far)?

EDIT: read about the banking troubles, sort of understand what's going on now

Check out my occasionally updated travel thread - The Wroclaw Gambit II: Dzięki Bogu - as I prepare to emigrate to Poland.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2014 03:55 PM by aphelion.)
01-28-2014 03:47 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1105
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-28-2014 03:47 PM)aphelion Wrote:  Ahhhhhh I see. They're basically holding up cash like the poker sites did a few years ago before they went busto.

So VoS is reliable then (so far)?

EDIT: read about the banking troubles, sort of understand what's going on now

In recent weeks, Bitstamp, BTC e and Coinbase have been running at very comparable rates (maybe less than 1% difference between them), and Mt Gox has been running at 10 to 25% higher than those ones. I had NOT been monitoring prices at VoS, but I would suspect that the VoS prices are closer to Bitstamp and Coinbase than to Mt. Gox.

As both you and El Mech suggested, there has been considerable and increasing suspicions about Mt. Gox and about whether they are sufficiently funded in order to be able to pay off account holders in the event that account holders were to attempt to get their money out of Mt. Gox. Some investors have alleged that for several months (some allegations of 3 months), they have been trying to cash out of Mt. Gox, without luck. In this regard, some Guys on RVF have thrown around accusations about dumb investment strategies - to me, it would seem pretty dumb if any guy would knowingly put money into Mt Gox and attempt to get a higher return through arbitrage - unless he has already been successfully able to do it in a timely manner - b/c Mt Gox could be an example of a large exchange that goes under in the near future.

On the other hand, we may get lucky, and Mt. Gox may be able to get their house in order so that they are NOT potentially screwing up the reputation of BTC (whatever little reputation BTC may have... he he he ).
01-28-2014 04:10 PM
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Maciano Offline
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Post: #1106
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Nobody paying attention has BTC/$ at Gox. It's going to implode if this keeps up.

Also, expect the delta to increase before that happens, because lots of people are arb-ing this situation to the max.

PS Huobi is full of shit too. They've been caught fixing volumes.

http://www.coindesk.com/reality-chinese-...g-volumes/

Look at BTC-e & Bitstamp. Or boring Coinbase.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2014 04:25 PM by Maciano.)
01-28-2014 04:20 PM
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Post: #1107
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Bitstamp is the gold standard as far as the price of BTC.

It is the exchange all the major bitcoin business use to buy BTC and sell BTC.
01-28-2014 04:27 PM
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Maciano Offline
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Post: #1108
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
TP

You're right Coinbase is pegged (no pun) to Bitstamp
01-28-2014 04:45 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1109
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I can tell the bulls are holding it up. Crash time comin!
01-28-2014 07:23 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1110
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-28-2014 07:23 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I can tell the bulls are holding it up. Crash time comin!

The problem with that prediction(that the crash is coming) is that there may be enough bulls (including myself.. sorry about that) that the BTC price does NOT really drop too much.

I am going to be so bold as to predict that this "crash," if it were to occur, based on the current news in front of us, is NOT going to bring BTC prices below $700. Currently, my plan is to buy at $750, $725 and $705. Of course, I will NOT buy BTC at the higher rates if I notice a real fast drop in BTC prices, and I can feel confident with an expectation that BTC prices are going to continue to drop.

The only reason that a guy buys BTC at a higher price is b/c he is NOT confident that the price will drop lower.

Exchange trades were really active in BTC about 12 hours ago - however in the last, approximately 8 hours, exchange trades have been really dead (or at least slow).
01-28-2014 09:15 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1111
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-28-2014 04:20 PM)Maciano Wrote:  Nobody paying attention has BTC/$ at Gox. It's going to implode if this keeps up.

Agreed!!


(01-28-2014 04:20 PM)Maciano Wrote:  Also, expect the delta to increase before that happens, because lots of people are arb-ing this situation to the max.

If this is happening, then it has to be by insiders with Mt. Gox or people with special Mt. Gox accounts - b/c apparently, regular people have trouble getting their money out of Mt. Gox, which makes arbitrage impossible... or at least so time consuming that it will NOT pay off.






(01-28-2014 04:20 PM)Maciano Wrote:  PS Huobi is full of shit too. They've been caught fixing volumes.

http://www.coindesk.com/reality-chinese-...g-volumes/

Maciano:

I am NOT trying to be a fud dud... but I read the article that you referred to and also the various linked articles therein that were in English, and the evidence is just NOT convincing me that fakery of BTC trade volume is going on through the various Chinese exchanges.

Yes, surely, I remain curious about how so much intense BTC trade volume in Chinese Yuan seems to cause so little movement in BTC prices - however, hardly any evidence is being presented to convincingly establish that there is actually some kind of BTC trade volume manipulation going on.

I am NOT saying that BTC trade volume manipulation is NOT happening but so far the presented evidence that I have seen is NOT very compelling, convincing or clearly presented (at least NOT in my understanding of the evidence that I have seen).

For example, the strongest evidence that the linked articles points out seems to be that there is a gap between BTC offer prices and the BTC sell prices... and therefore, few offers and sells are in fact getting fulfilled (accordingly, whatever is being shown as trade volume coming out of China as being traded is fake).

So far, I remain unconvinced by this argument b/c I do NOT see convincing evidence specifically showing what is going on that would really establish manipulation..... a part from various accusations.

On the other hand, you should NOT believe that I CANNOT be convinced of various conspiracy theories. Based on my minimal understanding of physics and videos that I have seen of the twin towers collapsing on 9/11/01, I am convinced that on 9/11 the twin towers in NYC fell due to planned demolition.. .thus an inside job... rather than the official claim that heat caused the two buildings to collapse due to their design... ... whatever...

My point is that I can be convinced the BTC trade volume in China is being manipulated if I am provided with or see compelling evidence.., and I have NOT seen it yet...




EDIT: BTW: An interesting side note is that at the moment, as I type, Sexcoin is back. 50% up in the last 24 hours. A higher return rate than any of the other Crypto currencies. Well, Sexcoin has ONLY a 1 million dollar market cap and about a $70,000 total trade volume...
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2014 11:56 PM by JayJuanGee.)
01-28-2014 11:48 PM
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Post: #1112
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-26-2014 09:53 AM)Maciano Wrote:  It can.

The focus of bitcoin devs is now on fully finishing product, it's still beta (heh). If you're rly interested, check out Jeff garzik, Andreas Antonopoulos, Mike heard, gavin andresen. They talk abt bitcoin development. Vitalik bruterin did create Ethereum, a blockchain based altcoin, that can do a lot more than bitcoin at this point.

I think bitcoin will (as Marc Andreessen argued) will grow to dominance through network effect. The analogy is w/ dotcom domain names and dotnet, dotinfo or dottv. These top level DNS names are all perfectly valid and usable, but they'll never be premium like dotcom. There will be altcoins w/ a function; Litecoin as 2nd tier, some coin for tipping like Doge (LOL), some local country or specific purpose stuff, but only one will grow to real dominance. Whatever function blockchains will cover, like Ethereum, when it comes to currency/value/banking/stocks bitcoin will be number #1.
Didn´t know about Ethereum project.. Are you planning on investing into it Maciano? I´ve been reading about it and decided not to put any money into it. For several reasons but the baseline is that I don´t think it will gain any major value the way it´s built.

Anyhow it is very interesting, it´s now five of this projects.. Mastercoins, Nxt, eMunie, Ethereum and Protoshares...

All of them is trying to take bitcoins to the next level. Maybe the big raise in value for bitcoins is over and one of this next second generation will be the next one to skyrocket in price. The advantage of bitcoins is already very clear and as a store of value I´m sure it will, maybe not always, but at least for a long time ahead.

I´m feeling rather safe with my Mastercoin investment even though the price just droped down to 0.11MSC/BTC and my average buying point is 0.17. But as soon as this decentralized exchange is up I´m sure to price will go up, maybe to around 1MSC/BTC.

Is anyone else informed about this coins? All coins on cryptocoincap is actually playing their role.
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2014 02:41 AM by Satoshi.)
01-29-2014 02:41 AM
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Maciano Offline
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Post: #1113
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-29-2014 02:41 AM)friheten Wrote:  
(01-26-2014 09:53 AM)Maciano Wrote:  It can.

The focus of bitcoin devs is now on fully finishing product, it's still beta (heh). If you're rly interested, check out Jeff garzik, Andreas Antonopoulos, Mike heard, gavin andresen. They talk abt bitcoin development. Vitalik bruterin did create Ethereum, a blockchain based altcoin, that can do a lot more than bitcoin at this point.

I think bitcoin will (as Marc Andreessen argued) will grow to dominance through network effect. The analogy is w/ dotcom domain names and dotnet, dotinfo or dottv. These top level DNS names are all perfectly valid and usable, but they'll never be premium like dotcom. There will be altcoins w/ a function; Litecoin as 2nd tier, some coin for tipping like Doge (LOL), some local country or specific purpose stuff, but only one will grow to real dominance. Whatever function blockchains will cover, like Ethereum, when it comes to currency/value/banking/stocks bitcoin will be number #1.
Didn´t know about Ethereum project.. Are you planning on investing into it Maciano? I´ve been reading about it and decided not to put any money into it. For several reasons but the baseline is that I don´t think it will gain any major value the way it´s built.

Anyhow it is very interesting, it´s now five of this projects.. Mastercoins, Nxt, eMunie, Ethereum and Protoshares...

All of them is trying to take bitcoins to the next level. Maybe the big raise in value for bitcoins is over and one of this next second generation will be the next one to skyrocket in price. The advantage of bitcoins is already very clear and as a store of value I´m sure it will, maybe not always, but at least for a long time ahead.

I´m feeling rather safe with my Mastercoin investment even though the price just droped down to 0.11MSC/BTC and my average buying point is 0.17. But as soon as this decentralized exchange is up I´m sure to price will go up, maybe to around 1MSC/BTC.

Is anyone else informed about this coins? All coins on cryptocoincap is actually playing their role.

I am definitely interested in buying and understanding Ethereum, but I'm trying to get my head around the sudden interest. Is it a complement or an attempt at substitution of BTC?

I don't think bitcoin's rise is over at all. The more I think about bitcoin, the more I think this stuff is the real deal for years to come.

But I could be wrong.
01-29-2014 11:27 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1114
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Over the last couple of hours, I just bit the bullet and bought a couple of BTC at around $790 - b/c I figured that the way things are going, we may never see $750 again. I was waiting and hoping for $750 and was even hoping that we could get even low $700s - however, it seems that kind of a crash may NOT happen - especially given today's news out of China that they are pretty much reversing themselves and allowing fiat to be transferred into BTC through their banks.

In the last several hours, and as I write, BTC prices (on Bitstamp - which seems to be the new RVF - BTC price reference point) seem to be fluctuating between $780 and $810

Overall, it seems to me that today's China news is going to cause a skyrocketting of BTC prices, at least for the short-term and potentially even for the long term. Even the NY hearings that had been taking place this week seem, overall, to be good news for BTC b/c even though the hearings may result in govt. regulation, there does NOT seem to be outright hostility towards BTC - at least, NOT yet and NOT that I have noticed.

Accordingly, I would expect, absent some new catastrophic BTC news, by no later than mid-February (and possibly before the end of this upcoming week), we are going to experience NEW all time highs in BTC prices (that means over $1,200 per BTC). That is my short-term prediction, based on the news in front of me, at the moment.

I am OPEN to being told differently, b/c I like to review some of the competing sources of information about BTC in order to be better informed about having these kinds of hunches about the direction of BTC prices.... and maybe even, with such new and competing information, to adjust my planned course of action.
01-30-2014 12:32 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1115
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
^ Some funny shit is going on with the Chinese especially BTC China which is doing 1.2 mill in volume every few minutes but the price is not rising accordingly. I'm not sure what they're cooking.
01-30-2014 12:52 PM
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RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-30-2014 12:52 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Some funny shit is going on with the Chinese especially BTC China which is doing 1.2 mill in volume every few minutes but the price is not rising accordingly. I'm not sure what they're cooking.

Yes.

I can confirm the increase in volume over the last few hours, and in the last hour, according to Fiatleaks, China did about 20,000 in BTC trades, which is about $16 million.... however, BTC price has NOT significantly changed.. it went up from $785 to $810, then came back down to about $805 and now seems to be moving down-ish?

I suspect that the trend is going to be up, but there could be some phoney baloney going on... .. we will see...

Usually, the BTC volume would be a fraction of the amount in the last hour... so the amount is really high... the usual amount may be something like $1 to 5 million an hour, at best.


Another interesting stat is that currently, china trade volume on fiat leaks is running between 50 and 100 times higher than the USA trade volume... The usual number would be between 3 to 5 times and maybe 10 to 20 times during china rallys....
01-30-2014 01:35 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1117
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
All that drama was the Maker-Taker bit at btc china
01-30-2014 03:01 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1118
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Can you explain what that means?
01-30-2014 03:08 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1119
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-30-2014 03:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Can you explain what that means?
Conceptualize what's happening...

one guy has a bot that he's sleeping in.. it will buy at one price and sell at another based on a preset margin. It doesn't place "limit orders" it places "market orders".

Another guy... much wiser... has realized that by placing limit orders on the books will

1) entice this other bot to buy and sell at ever decreasing margins
2) EARN "maker" fees for the winner
3) Leave the loser to wake up not just to the fees associated w/ buying and selling 100 or 200 BTCs... but 50,000 BTC worth of fees.


Someone is going to wake up so F'ed its not funny...

And someone else is going to be swimming in a BANK of maker fees.


awww SNAP!!!
01-30-2014 03:19 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1120
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-30-2014 03:01 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  All that drama was the Maker-Taker bit at btc china


(01-30-2014 03:19 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  
(01-30-2014 03:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Can you explain what that means?
Conceptualize what's happening...

one guy has a bot that he's sleeping in.. it will buy at one price and sell at another based on a preset margin. It doesn't place "limit orders" it places "market orders".

Another guy... much wiser... has realized that by placing limit orders on the books will

1) entice this other bot to buy and sell at ever decreasing margins
2) EARN "maker" fees for the winner
3) Leave the loser to wake up not just to the fees associated w/ buying and selling 100 or 200 BTCs... but 50,000 BTC worth of fees.


Someone is going to wake up so F'ed its not funny...

And someone else is going to be swimming in a BANK of maker fees.


awww SNAP!!!

Definitely, I appreciate your explanation of what you had meant and there is likely some truth to what you are describing.

I am also getting a sense that a lot of the China volume may be occurring based on the use of bots, and the lower the transaction fees, the more profitable it will be to trade based on lower levels of volatility – however, the bots are going to cause less volatility with potentially a lot of volume.

There may be some truth that some guys may have been programing their bots in a bad way in order to fail to account for transaction fees – but I would NOT presume that to be the case. I suspect that in any of these scenarios, there are going to be some guys who are in privileged positions that do NOT suffer any transaction fees, and those guys can afford to trade and to profit with lower margins.

We also must remember that for quite a while BTC China did NOT have any transaction fees… But then they implemented a .3% transaction fee. I believe that currently Huobi does NOT have any transaction fees, and that will attract and encourage higher trade volumes and the use of bots trading at lower margins.

Anyhow, I would NOT necessarily hypothesize that some guy is getting screwed by misprogramming his bot(s).. … though maybe there is some of that going on, also.

Maybe also once the bots get going then they build upon one another to attempt to increase volatility, as you described, because in the last several hours, the trades have decreased to a near standstill…. Accordingly, we may more may NOT have an additional crash on 1/31 or sometime leading up until the middle of February. I take your point, though, that a guy may need to account for China volume with a grain of salt because magnitudes of increased volume does NOT automatically indicate that there is going to be any kind of meaningful BTC price change.

In sum, even if there is all of this bot activity in China, we are likely going to have to look at other factors to attempt to predict either short-term and/or long-term BTC prices. IN that regard, FinCEN just published a ruling that is favorable to bitcoin.. two components to the ruling: 1) that miners are NOT money transmitters and 2) companies investing in BTC are NOT money transmitters. Good news for BTC.
01-30-2014 07:33 PM
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Maciano Offline
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Post: #1121
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
I'll soon be back in. The Chinese only matter for daytrading, I'm back in for the long run. Also, if BTC has another 10x run up, you can make some nice daily profits from just 1 BTC. LoL, imagine that.

@ JJG, Pants, TP & El-Mech et al

We could help some guys at the forum by donating a small amount of BTC. Just tip them $1 worth of BTC It's a good way to get started, just get a wallet at blockchain.info & it's up/running. You guys in? I'm not doing it alone.
01-31-2014 09:57 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1122
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-31-2014 09:57 AM)Maciano Wrote:  I'll soon be back in. The Chinese only matter for daytrading, I'm back in for the long run. Also, if BTC has another 10x run up, you can make some nice daily profits from just 1 BTC. LoL, imagine that.

@ JJG, Pants, TP & El-Mech et al

We could help some guys at the forum by donating a small amount of BTC. Just tip them $1 worth of BTC It's a good way to get started, just get a wallet at blockchain.info & it's up/running. You guys in? I'm not doing it alone.
No I'm not in. Lazy people don't deserve shit. The info is all here to make some shit happen you'll be getting pms asking to set up their wallets and all kinds of other shit. The same shit happens at my work..everyone wants to flip cars but they want me to do all the work..I'm in business because I roll the dice and make quick decisions and the people who work for me would run this shit to the ground in one month.
01-31-2014 10:05 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1123
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-31-2014 09:57 AM)Maciano Wrote:  I'll soon be back in. The Chinese only matter for daytrading, I'm back in for the long run. Also, if BTC has another 10x run up, you can make some nice daily profits from just 1 BTC. LoL, imagine that.

@ JJG, Pants, TP & El-Mech et al

We could help some guys at the forum by donating a small amount of BTC. Just tip them $1 worth of BTC It's a good way to get started, just get a wallet at blockchain.info & it's up/running. You guys in? I'm not doing it alone.

There are quite a few guys who are into bitcoin that believe that the long term success of bitcoin depends upon helping various people to get set up in bitcoin. Accordingly, the more people who become aware of bitcoin through use of bitcoin is better for the long term success of bitcoin. Generally, I agree that is true.

I am considering setting up various mechanisms to gift in BTC with some targeted people – but sometimes, I can be a little slow in getting things done because of the shortness of the day. Too many things to do, and NOT enough hours in the day.

I am considering starting with one of my nephews. I owe him a graduation gift, and I am thinking about asking him if he knows about bitcoin. If he does NOT then I will help him to set it up in order that he can receive BTC. If he already knows about BTC, then I will send him the intended gift in BTC.

Once that goes through then, I will consider another gifting target(s), and maybe after I get the hang of it to gift a few friends and relatives under my belt, then I may be willing to expand my gifting (evangelism) practices.

Maciano, I think that if you already have a general idea in place, you could experiment a little bit with setting some guys up.. whether on this forum or other people that you know. It may be too complicated to try to get others to go along in some kind of concerted way. Certainly, in order to accomplish what you are suggesting, a guy would NOT have to give very much BTC. For example, just give .005 BTC or even less. I am NOT quite to that level of setting anyone else up, yet. Nonetheless, I will be interested in hearing about any ideas of short-cuts that guys have. You are thinking that setting a wallet on Blockchain.info is the easiest and quickest?
01-31-2014 11:00 AM
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Satoshi Offline
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Post: #1124
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
Donated 0.1BTC to my Mother and 0.2BTC to my sister about a year ago. They are lost now......
01-31-2014 11:38 AM
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Post: #1125
RE: Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month
(01-31-2014 11:38 AM)friheten Wrote:  Donated 0.1BTC to my Mother and 0.2BTC to my sister about a year ago. They are lost now......


I think that is the big dilemma to attempt to get the person receiving the BTC to have some skin in the game.

So for example, if the person sets up an account or a wallet, then it is more likely that the person will keep track of the BTC and the password etc etc...

If we donate the BTC and set everything up, then the person receiving the BTC may NOT take any further action.

I have a similar problem attempting to get my mom to back up her computer hard drive. I buy all the equipment, set it up, and show her how to do it, but she does NOT do it. I say once a month, open this program and hit this button, and it is too complicated for her and the backing up does NOT get done until I show up to do it. I have even seen her lose all her information on the computer and buy a new hard drive to start over b/c she did NOT back up, and she is still NOT motivated to run the back up program.
01-31-2014 12:12 PM
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