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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1551
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz
04-02-2014 08:58 PM
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JJ Roberts Offline
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Post: #1552
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-02-2014 08:58 PM)brg444 Wrote:  everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz

Seen it.

I like Marc's comment about how this is the best late beta opportunity of our lifetimes.

That's pretty much how I feel about it and describing the stage we are at as "late beta" is a good assessment.
04-02-2014 09:19 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1553
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-02-2014 06:22 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(04-02-2014 05:58 PM)rottenapple Wrote:  I used Bitcoin Central this time, which suited me well. I agree on the price, I don't think it will get much lower. The question then is, what percentage of my personal capital am I willing to risk on this? Not an easy question to answer.

Yeah, that tends to be a very personal question that depends on a variety of factors including age, risk tolerance, income, how diversified you are in other investments. People often say don't bet more than you are willing to lose; however, we know that sometimes people will leverage their investment.. which is really betting the farm on their investment, which could cause you to become very rich if you bet correct or potentially live a life of poverty if you lose....

I tend to make sure that I am diversified in my investments, including my BTC investment, but as you may have noticed, there are other philosophies and perspectives that have contributed to this thread.


I want to supplement my above answer to add one additional perspective to describe my own investment strategy.


Certainly, I have a little bit of a problem with my investment strategy into BTC b/c I got in after a bull run that had increased bitcoin by about 6 times within a month (from about $200 per BTC to about $1200 per BTC). So I understood that I was entering the BTC sphere at the end of a recent and extensive bull run and that affected my initial plan and strategy.

I wanted to get in right away and to get some skin in the game (even though I was somewhat concerned about the most recent BTC performance), but I did NOT want to go all in b/c of that recent performance.

Accordingly, I figured that in about 6 months, my BTC investment budget was going to be $30k, and I planned to stretch that out through the period, and in the first month, I ended up investing about $10K. By the time, I had invested 10K, I felt comfortable about having fairly decent skin in the game - though my average price per BTC, at that point, was about $760.

At that point towards the beginning of January 2014, I began to consider ways that I could strive to buy on the lows, which to date, I have already invested my $30k initial investment, and I have an average of $648 per BTC (Not the greatest in the world, but NOT so bad considering that I started out at $1200 per BTC).

If I had come into BTC today, on the same kind of 6 month budget of $30k, probably, probably would front load 50 to 75% of my six month budget within the first week or so, and then spread out the investment thereafter with a dollar cost averaging strategy. Accordingly, if I invested 75% that would be about $22,500 and then $7,500 to spread over the next six months, which is about $288 per week. That kind of investment style is in line with my risk tolerance and historical past practice.

Of course, the above kind of plan is scalable and adaptable to your own particular budget, investment style and/or risk tolerance. And, of course, even if you have a plan, you can readjust it to the extent that you feel that circumstances may have changed.

Hopefully, this makes sense... and if any guy reading this thread wants to run any ideas by me via PM, I am receptive to such.
04-03-2014 12:15 AM
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strengthstudent Offline
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Post: #1554
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-02-2014 08:58 PM)brg444 Wrote:  everyone should watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iir5J6Z3Z1Q#t=1805

Marc Andreessen and Balaji Srinivasan of Andreessen Horowitz

Great video. Learned some new concepts which I hadn't considered before. Blockchain / Bitcoin technology can change the world a lot.


If you look at the Bitcoin price since the January, Bitcoin has been a TERRIBLE investment this year but that is reasonable due to the huge bubble of November. I bought half of my coins at 750 $, and have been buying at every 'low', this one included. As a student haven't been able to afford as much Jay but nearly every extra penny I have earned has gone to Bitcoins.

I don't think it is very productive to think in terms of 'if I had...'. Buying at 800$ to 1200$ could have been a great investment if the price continued to rise, there were reasons to thinks so.

It is funny that when browsing threads on reddit/bitcointalk 1-2 years back, people are worrying about the exact same things as now and very afraid of the price fluctuations. Maybe next year we look back - happy - that we didn't lose our minds on this rocky road.
04-03-2014 07:57 AM
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JayJuanGee
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Post: #1555
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
Quote:Didn't you hear the CEO of Bitcoin (trademark) has banned China.
It was confirmed by the CEO of the Internet himself.
Banana
04-04-2014 11:43 AM
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JJ Roberts Offline
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Post: #1556
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
Interesting info here about an announcement expected in China on 15th April.

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-china-dismis...en-letter/

How to trade this?
04-04-2014 02:32 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1557
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-04-2014 02:32 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Interesting info here about an announcement expected in China on 15th April.

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-china-dismis...en-letter/

How to trade this?

buy Wink
04-04-2014 06:27 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1558
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
bought for the first time from an ATM today

http://genesiscoin.com/

experience was good. QR are a bitch to scan though
04-04-2014 06:28 PM
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JJ Roberts Offline
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Post: #1559
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-04-2014 06:27 PM)brg444 Wrote:  buy Wink

What I mean is that is it wise to expect a price drop when the announcement comes out or has the FUD and recent price drop mean that the bad news has already been taken into account in the BTC price?

I mean if we are expecting BTC to go down then it makes sense to sell some now and buy them back on the 15th / 16th at the lower prices.
04-04-2014 07:17 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1560
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-04-2014 06:28 PM)brg444 Wrote:  bought for the first time from an ATM today

http://genesiscoin.com/

experience was good. QR are a bitch to scan though


What City? Are you in Canada? Are there a lot of bitcoin ATMs in Canada? What was the bitcoin price and the exchange rate cost? I mean was the bitcoin price similar to the price on a major exchange? Were you charged a 2 or 3% fee?




(04-04-2014 07:17 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  
(04-04-2014 06:27 PM)brg444 Wrote:  buy Wink

What I mean is that is it wise to expect a price drop when the announcement comes out or has the FUD and recent price drop mean that the bad news has already been taken into account in the BTC price?

I mean if we are expecting BTC to go down then it makes sense to sell some now and buy them back on the 15th / 16th at the lower prices.


Very risky to be selling BTC, now... but we each come to our own judgements about what is going to happen to the price... and whether we believe it is worth the risk to sel and to buy lower. Surely that can be very profitable, but very risky, too... . I sleep much better in BTC than I do in fiat.... b/c I do NOT know when the price is going to skyrocket upward and then leave this mid-$400 price territory forever.

I have bought about 13BTC in the last about 3 weeks, when the price was $610 and all the way down to $418. Each time, I thought that the price may NOT go lower, and I need to stock up.... Then the price went lower. Certainly, I would have preferred to buy all of my BTC at $418... but I have NO real idea about the price direction. and I would rather error on the side of stocking up.... even though my average BTC buy price is higher than what it could be if I had waited.... but if the BTC price would have taken off, then I would NOT have been stocked up.
04-04-2014 08:07 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-04-2014 02:32 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  Interesting info here about an announcement expected in China on 15th April.

http://www.coindesk.com/btc-china-dismis...en-letter/

How to trade this?

In my opinion whatever happens in the 15th of April has already been calculated into the price. I believe BTC infrastructure in China is less than in the US and Europe and there is no reason to buy BTC for a Chinese than to speculate. In the west other things like Silk Road or similar might get people to buy.

Bitcoin will survive without China but it would be a big lose for China if they are not allowed to trade bitcoins. And even if there is no online exchange to trade bitcoins in China, people who still wanna buy still will in one way or another.

The most bullish news about bitcoins is from country's with strong and stable economy already, like Australia, Canada, Scandinavia, Germany, Switzerland and so on.

China has been leading the price first in buying panic in Novermber taking us to $1200 and now down to $400 in panic selling.

The lack of people with skills in both English and Chinese is a big problem when China controls the price. Is it just be or is biggest changes in price during China business hours?
04-05-2014 04:46 AM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1562
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-04-2014 08:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  What City? Are you in Canada? Are there a lot of bitcoin ATMs in Canada? What was the bitcoin price and the exchange rate cost? I mean was the bitcoin price similar to the price on a major exchange? Were you charged a 2 or 3% fee?

I'm in Quebec city. This is the one and only ATM in the city, closest one is in Montreal. I think there's more in Vancouver.

There was a 5 % fee which I feel is too much. On the other hand I had the chance to speak with the owner and it is kind of a big gamble for him and these things cost 15k so he has to earn his money back somehow. I expect the fees to go down once competition enters the market.

All that said, nothing beats the convenience of just going to an ATM to deposit/withdraw BTCs. No waiting on wire transfers and what not. I will use it again

Also, the ATM is located in an hostel and I couldn't help but think how convenient this is for travelers.
(This post was last modified: 04-05-2014 11:50 AM by brg444.)
04-05-2014 11:48 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-05-2014 11:48 AM)brg444 Wrote:  
(04-04-2014 08:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  What City? Are you in Canada? Are there a lot of bitcoin ATMs in Canada? What was the bitcoin price and the exchange rate cost? I mean was the bitcoin price similar to the price on a major exchange? Were you charged a 2 or 3% fee?

I'm in Quebec city. This is the one and only ATM in the city, closest one is in Montreal. I think there's more in Vancouver.

There was a 5 % fee which I feel is too much. On the other hand I had the chance to speak with the owner and it is kind of a big gamble for him and these things cost 15k so he has to earn his money back somehow. I expect the fees to go down once competition enters the market.

All that said, nothing beats the convenience of just going to an ATM to deposit/withdraw BTCs. No waiting on wire transfers and what not. I will use it again

Also, the ATM is located in an hostel and I couldn't help but think how convenient this is for travelers.


I had heard that some of the ATMs only allow one way... that is to purchase BTC. It is nice to hear that the one that you used offers both. Certainly seems that it could work for some people and some situations, and I was thinking that it could work for the chinese exchanges - even though they would likely NOT want to spend 5% .. .. and that 5% becomes 10% if you have to use it both ways.

The guy has to do $300,000 in volume, just to recoupe his initial $15k start up cost. Maybe his operational costs would be a wash if it ends up that he attracts more customers to his business?
04-05-2014 12:39 PM
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Apollo Away
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Post: #1564
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
From a purely technical perspective, it looks like an uncontained selling spree. I see slight supports at $400 and $300 with pretty solid support at around $200. Since I'm long term bullish on this, I'll be looking at an entry in the very immediate future. We're seeing lower lows, but the accompanying volume is decreasing, so that's a good sign.

To be certain, these are major losses from the top, but for anyone with a long term outlook, the risk profile and price is coming more into line.

An interesting incentive might be for business owners to offer discounts for bitcoin payment. Considering the fees they normally have to pay, this would be a win-win all around.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstamp...10zm2g25zv

"Despite their numbers, their pussyness means I was barely hurt. 2 black eyes and a cut nose, no big deal. I could sense the fear in them so as they were walking I chased them down and told them to "go home". They all left like little girls." - Revelations 21:4
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2014 12:22 AM by Apollo.)
04-06-2014 12:13 AM
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Bum Farto Offline
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Post: #1565
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
I use human ATMS. You can find them on http://www.localbitcoins.com - buy & sell, lots of them per city, and I've never paid fees.
04-06-2014 12:38 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-06-2014 12:13 AM)Apollo Wrote:  From a purely technical perspective, it looks like an uncontained selling spree. I see slight supports at $400 and $300 with pretty solid support at around $200. Since I'm long term bullish on this, I'll be looking at an entry in the very immediate future. We're seeing lower lows, but the accompanying volume is decreasing, so that's a good sign.

To be certain, these are major losses from the top, but for anyone with a long term outlook, the risk profile and price is coming more into line.

An interesting incentive might be for business owners to offer discounts for bitcoin payment. Considering the fees they normally have to pay, this would be a win-win all around.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstamp...10zm2g25zv


You know that we are all speculating here in this thread, somewhat about the direction of BTC prices, and certainly you could be as correct about your price direction speculation (or more correct) than others in this thread.

Surely, there are a lot of guys in this thread who are very bullish regarding the future potential of BTC (and its prices).. including myself.. if you have seen my previous posts; nonetheless, good luck if you believe you are going to be getting into BTC in the $200 price range - absent some kind of flash crash.

I think that overall you are correct about low volume on the various BTC exchanges; however, there is also some BTC buying, trading and transactional activities that are taking place off of the exchanges. And, yes some of the recent and ongoing scandals are also nerve racking, including what appears to be that the NEO & Bee executive running off with 12,000 of investors' BTCs.

I certainly do NOT have any crystal ball regarding BTC price direction, and I am NOT sure about what to expect exactly regarding BTC prices. I would be surprised, though if bitcoin prices were to go below $400 within the next week or two, absent some additional and amazing negative news......

I will concede there are some pretty big stories in bitcoin, and the negative news seems to have a tendency to disproportionately bring down BTC prices much more than any positive news in BTC brings prices up. I have my doubts about whether your assessment of Bitcoins risk/price profile is correct - but surely each of us is entitled to his opinion(s) regarding when and how much to invest in any asset.


Since BTC prices are currently floating in the mid $400 territory, these prices could sky rocket at any time as well. Many in the BTC sphere are still predicting BTC prices to reach $2k within 2014... (whether that is pie in the sky, I do NOT know) and it is likely if we begin to go down that road of escalating BTC prices, then any BTC prices below $1,000 are going to look like bargain basement prices.

Personally, you have a right to come to your own judgement regarding what you are going to do and when or if you are going to invest, but I would NOT bank on waiting for any kind of $200 price point, and it may be worth it to bank a little into BTC at the current $450 price so you are NOT left behind in the event that BTC prices do go suddenly upwards... and there are a lot of reasons to believe that BTC prices could depart upwards at any moment and unannounced.

Oh by the way what would be your timeline for buying BTC, if you were to buy? within the next month? six months? Do you have various scenarios in mind that would cause you to buy BTC at various price points? How much would you buy? Have you thought about probabilities that BTC prices will drop to points that you believe are more within your willingness to buy? I would imagine that a lot of this depend on news developments, I suppose, but each of us probably have various visions regarding any investment that we make or that we are considering to make.

Also, I do appreciate that you linked to a longer term presentation of BTC's prices (over a one year period) rather than showing BTC prices from some random point on or after December 2013 - which is a frequent fallacy, when I see people suggesting that BTC prices are "overvalued."
04-06-2014 01:59 AM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1567
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
Ouch! Here are your cheap coins guys!
04-10-2014 10:27 AM
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rottenapple Offline
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Post: #1568
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
Strong reaction of the bitcoin just based on shutdown notices of banks in China and the Australian National Banks announcement no? Wait for the 15th I guess and then buy more perhaps?
04-10-2014 10:42 AM
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JJ Roberts Offline
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Post: #1569
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-06-2014 01:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I would be surprised, though if bitcoin prices were to go below $400 within the next week or two

It's at 395 now. Next support level looks like 350.
04-10-2014 02:10 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1570
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-10-2014 02:10 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  
(04-06-2014 01:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I would be surprised, though if bitcoin prices were to go below $400 within the next week or two

It's at 395 now. Next support level looks like 350.

Yes.. should go without saying that I am "_____"

Actually, I ran out of funds in my bank, and I am unable to buy any more until maybe tomorrow when my deposit arrives.
(This post was last modified: 04-10-2014 03:02 PM by JayJuanGee.)
04-10-2014 02:54 PM
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JJ Roberts Offline
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Post: #1571
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-10-2014 02:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Yes.. should go without saying that I am "_____"

Actually, I ran out of funds in my bank, and I am unable to buy any more until maybe tomorrow when my deposit arrives.

I sent funds a week ago specifically so I have funds on hand right now (and I have been using them)

Bought at 450 and 400. Have a limit order at 350 for more.
04-10-2014 03:19 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
(04-10-2014 02:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(04-10-2014 02:10 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  
(04-06-2014 01:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I would be surprised, though if bitcoin prices were to go below $400 within the next week or two

It's at 395 now. Next support level looks like 350.

Yes.. should go without saying that I am "_____"

Actually, I ran out of funds in my bank, and I am unable to buy any more until maybe tomorrow when my deposit arrives.

Yeah... I kind of fell behind on some of these deposit sufficiency matters b/c I have always had enough dinero in my account... Then I got caught up with taxes... and I let my attention to my account balance slip... so by the time, I tried to get money over to my account, its NOT happening quickly enough.

Who knows how long this downward trajectory will last, but if the price keeps dropping, then NO big deal about NOT having funds in my account today.

At the moment, there does seem to be quite a bit of downward price momentum, yet these kinds of momentum trends can also reverse very quickly, too.
04-10-2014 03:56 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1573
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
i have no idea where this is going razz


all I know is I'm gonna try to catch the falling knife again and get more Bitcoin at these prices
04-10-2014 05:59 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #1574
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
I have a utopic theory that BIG players are driving the prices down trying to get as many cheap coins as possible before the rocket to the moon.

There are reports of institutional pockets wanting in. If that's the case, they have the necessary liquidity to fuck around with the market until we reach a point where everyone is comfortable jumping in and all the "off exchange" coin reserves are expired
04-10-2014 06:04 PM
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1575
RE: The Bitcoin thread (formerly "Bitcoins up 60% in less than a month")
China 124btc in 5 minutes on fiatleak. I guess we fingered out that it counts sales. I'm still all in and losing my azz but fuck it. I want it to drop to 75 bucks and let China get screwed then we can build it up again.

Also this is an eye opener for me as to how big of haters some governments are. Like Bitcoins are really going to screw the Chinese money.

Other than that I may be switching to a risky alt coin if it gets real low.
04-10-2014 06:20 PM
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