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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2126
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-15-2015 12:48 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I'm going to start playing with this again next week. Also as far as making money ALT coins are the way to go as far as HODL BTC.

I generally agree that for traders, there is going to be a lot more potential in the coming months (and possibly year) to realize greater gains in the various alt coin markets because likely those market are going to be pumped and dumped considerably (just like litecoin has been in the last 4-6 weeks).

And, a lot of us realize the pump and dump potential of the alt coin markets to be a lot greater in part because the market caps are a lot smaller than bitcoin's market cap...

And it is also my sense that there is a lot of downward price pressure on BTC in part because large mainstream financial institutions are a lot more afraid of BTC and because of that, they are specifically and intentionally spending considerable resources in order to continue to attempt to keep btc prices down. Though as suggested by BRG444, some of those efforts of the mainstream financial institutions to keep BTC prices down are going to be challenged considerably in the near future, and these mainstream financial forces (bears) are going to have considerable difficulties (once the upward price momentum starts) to continue to suppress BTC prices.

We already seem to be in that transition with BTC, and in recent months, the bears have been losing the battle and we seem to be transitioning into a bull market in the btc world.
07-16-2015 05:21 AM
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BBinger Offline
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Post: #2127
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-13-2015 08:23 PM)brg444 Wrote:  
(06-22-2015 12:12 AM)BBinger Wrote:  I'm very active on the #bitcoin-assets IRC channel and there's a near consensus in the big holder circles that much of the present price depression is a natural effect of poor information on actual trades. Most bitcoin are never touching BitStamp, the Chicom exchanges (especially Bitfinex), or the new American wave of exchanges.

Interesting. I read the logs on a regular basis. What is your username?

Agree with your assessment of the price situation. The market signal-to-noise ratio is very poor and it is also my impression that most of the BTC changing hands are being traded OTC.

Been away for awhile, good to see this thread is still active. 2nd half of the year should be very interesting. Especially if masterluc from BTCtalk forum is right and historical wave III has indeed started.

The best way to find out is to go there and ask.
07-16-2015 04:36 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2128
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Actually, I wanted to mention that my bitcoin purchase from a few days ago through Circle using my credit card, rather than direct debit, seems to have cost me an arm and a leg, nearly.

I only made a $100 purchase of bitcoin through that transaction; however, Circle charged $2.90 on the backend.

And then my credit card charged, three fees $10 cash advance fee $.15 interest on cash advance $3.01 interest on outstanding balance (luckily my outstanding balance was pretty low at the time, under $600). Today, when I noticed many of those additional fees on my statement, I checked with my credit card, and they said that they cannot do anything about it, yet I think that they are lying, but I am willing to go through the motions to check with Circle to see whether they can reverse the transaction and/or convert the credit card transaction over to a bank transaction. I doubt that I will receive an answer over the weekend, since Circle's support seems to be closed over the weekend. In any event, my credit card rep said that he would stop the accumulating of interest fees pertaining to my outstanding credit card outstanding amount, but still the total of the additional fees, so far, adds up to 16.06% additional fees for my $100 bitcoin purchase. Prices gotta go up, just to break even on that butt dial of a transaction.

I blame those fuckers at Circle for causing credit card to be default on the payment method when I do NOT even use credit card to purchase BTC... those fuckers... .
07-17-2015 11:24 PM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2129
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Wow, not cool.

Suggestion: only have a bank account set up and make sure the bank account has no cards set to it.

In general, if one of these exchanges ever had a major data compromise, I wouldn't want a primary account to be on the line. A bitcoin-only checking account makes it easy to turn off the spigots in a compromise.
07-18-2015 07:41 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2130
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-18-2015 07:41 AM)SunW Wrote:  Wow, not cool.

Suggestion: only have a bank account set up and make sure the bank account has no cards set to it.

In general, if one of these exchanges ever had a major data compromise, I wouldn't want a primary account to be on the line. A bitcoin-only checking account makes it easy to turn off the spigots in a compromise.

You may have the safer and better practice SunW... Yet, I am thinking that for the time being, I am going to keep my credit card linked within my circle account and just attempt to pay more attention to any transactions that I make.

Regarding your point about any potential attempts to make transactions through my credit card that are NOT authorized by me, I have some faith that this will NOT occur... On the other hand, I am going to continue to ponder over this point a bit in order to consider whether, at the time being, there is any upside to having one of my credit cards linked within my Circle account.,, especially, since at the time being (and I cannot really foresee any realistic future scenarios) I really DO NOT plan to purchase or sell bitcoins through my credit card.
07-18-2015 07:22 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2131
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-17-2015 11:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Actually, I wanted to mention that my bitcoin purchase from a few days ago through Circle using my credit card, rather than direct debit, seems to have cost me an arm and a leg, nearly.

I only made a $100 purchase of bitcoin through that transaction; however, Circle charged $2.90 on the backend.

And then my credit card charged, three fees $10 cash advance fee $.15 interest on cash advance $3.01 interest on outstanding balance (luckily my outstanding balance was pretty low at the time, under $600). Today, when I noticed many of those additional fees on my statement, I checked with my credit card, and they said that they cannot do anything about it, yet I think that they are lying, but I am willing to go through the motions to check with Circle to see whether they can reverse the transaction and/or convert the credit card transaction over to a bank transaction. I doubt that I will receive an answer over the weekend, since Circle's support seems to be closed over the weekend. In any event, my credit card rep said that he would stop the accumulating of interest fees pertaining to my outstanding credit card outstanding amount, but still the total of the additional fees, so far, adds up to 16.06% additional fees for my $100 bitcoin purchase. Prices gotta go up, just to break even on that butt dial of a transaction.

I blame those fuckers at Circle for causing credit card to be default on the payment method when I do NOT even use credit card to purchase BTC... those fuckers... .




Within the past hour, I did just get a response from Circle...

I do appreciate their fairly timely response, even though it is the weekend...



>>>>>>>>>>>>
"{_______} (Circle)
Jul {_______}

Hi {_______},

Thanks for reaching out!

I wish that we could interfere, however once a transaction is initiated there is no way to cancel it. In the future, make sure you check out which funding type you are using on the deposit page.

For more information feel free to check out this Help Center article.

Please let us know if there is anything else we can do to help.

Best,

__________, Team Circle"
<<<<<<<<<<<<<
07-18-2015 07:26 PM
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Grind Offline
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Post: #2132
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I hadn't been following bitcoin much in the past 6 months but in light of China's stockmarket falling around 30%, as well as Greece's problems, I decided to buy back in. Made a nice 6% profit over 3 days then sold off before the price leveled back to what it was before hand.

I admit I have no interest in using bitcoin as a currency and only as a short term investment.. its a bit disappointing that the push in price only lasted a few days.

I also just noticed that the mintpal.com exchange closed down a while back. I used to use that exchange everyday when I was trading a lot 6 months ago..More bitcoiners losing their money..
07-19-2015 07:00 AM
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SunW Offline
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Post: #2133
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2015 07:00 AM)Grind Wrote:  I admit I have no interest in using bitcoin as a currency and only as a short term investment.. its a bit disappointing that the push in price only lasted a few days.


If you treat bitcoin like a stock, then yes it's disappointing. For those of us who lend bitcoins, significant price fluctuations are bad. Pattern fluctuations are not, such as an increase in value over a long period of time, or decrease after a banking crisis resolves.
07-19-2015 01:58 PM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #2134
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-19-2015 07:00 AM)Grind Wrote:  I hadn't been following bitcoin much in the past 6 months but in light of China's stockmarket falling around 30%, as well as Greece's problems, I decided to buy back in. Made a nice 6% profit over 3 days then sold off before the price leveled back to what it was before hand.

I admit I have no interest in using bitcoin as a currency and only as a short term investment.. its a bit disappointing that the push in price only lasted a few days.

I also just noticed that the mintpal.com exchange closed down a while back. I used to use that exchange everyday when I was trading a lot 6 months ago..More bitcoiners losing their money..

my guess is the rise is only getting started. we overshoot a bit last week. but almost every single trading metrics are bullish.

feels like a perfect storm. just need some volume
07-19-2015 05:00 PM
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SunW Offline
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The Bitcoin thread
So someone(s) dumped gold big time, possibly because they were in a leveraged position (love these idiots because they make everything cheap for savers) and had to liquidate to cover their losses. The context of this with bitcoin is that I do keep an eye on bitcoin and gold and if gold becomes cheap, especially after an interest rate increase (possible, but not definite), then I may load up on gold. The one problem that I have with gold is that I can't lend out a portion of it, like with bitcoin. Seeing how bitcoin will react to an interest rate increase will be very revealing about who's behind it; people expecting it to go through the moon should dump their positions, as I expect an interest rate increase should put bitcoin down about 10-20% and this may be enough for some of those "impatients" to dump it.

We'll see. Still, gold is a 6000+ year currency and will continue to outlast them all, so if that gets cheap, I'll buy it and wait on bitcoin. The Fed realizes that inflation is starting to increase and they also realize that if they don't raise interest rates, if another recession hits, they have fewer tools to trick the market. The latter point is why I think they might raise interest rates this year instead of next.
07-20-2015 08:35 AM
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Post: #2136
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 08:35 AM)SunW Wrote:  So someone(s) dumped gold big time, possibly because they were in a leveraged position (love these idiots because they make everything cheap for savers) and had to liquidate to cover their losses. The context of this with bitcoin is that I do keep an eye on bitcoin and gold and if gold becomes cheap, especially after an interest rate increase (possible, but not definite), then I may load up on gold. The one problem that I have with gold is that I can't lend out a portion of it, like with bitcoin. Seeing how bitcoin will react to an interest rate increase will be very revealing about who's behind it; people expecting it to go through the moon should dump their positions, as I expect an interest rate increase should put bitcoin down about 10-20% and this may be enough for some of those "impatients" to dump it.

We'll see. Still, gold is a 6000+ year currency and will continue to outlast them all, so if that gets cheap, I'll buy it and wait on bitcoin. The Fed realizes that inflation is starting to increase and they also realize that if they don't raise interest rates, if another recession hits, they have fewer tools to trick the market. The latter point is why I think they might raise interest rates this year instead of next.

So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.
07-20-2015 10:53 AM
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SunW Offline
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The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 10:53 AM)brg444 Wrote:  So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.

Actually, I said the opposite about gold: it's superior to all currencies.

When it comes to money, though, there is nothing that is a good or bad investment (or currency move). There are only expensive and cheap investments (or currencies), just like buying a pair of jeans at $50 is more expensive than buying a pair of jeans for $15 on sale. It was neither "good' nor "evil" to have purchased the jeans at either price. If gold becomes cheap, it's a better buy than an expensive bitcoin and vice versa.

Just reflecting over a record of your thoughts so far about bitcoin:

Quote:Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike.

Quote:I will strongly reconsider my investment in Bitcoin if we haven't hit at least 10,000$ by the end of 2016.

Interesting.
07-20-2015 11:07 AM
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brg444 Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 11:07 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 10:53 AM)brg444 Wrote:  So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.

Actually, I said the opposite about gold: it's superior to all currencies.

When it comes to money, though, there is nothing that is a good or bad investment (or currency move). There are only expensive and cheap investments (or currencies), just like buying a pair of jeans at $50 is more expensive than buying a pair of jeans for $15 on sale. It was neither "good' nor "evil" to have purchased the jeans at either price. If gold becomes cheap, it's a better buy than an expensive bitcoin and vice versa.

Just reflecting over a record of your thoughts so far about bitcoin:

Quote:Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike.

Quote:I will strongly reconsider my investment in Bitcoin if we haven't hit at least 10,000$ by the end of 2016.

Interesting.

You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Here is an interesting video from one of the smart guys in the bitcoin space that expands on the idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIvqJsCOSo

Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?
(This post was last modified: 07-20-2015 12:19 PM by brg444.)
07-20-2015 12:11 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #2139
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 11:07 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 10:53 AM)brg444 Wrote:  So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.

Actually, I said the opposite about gold: it's superior to all currencies.

When it comes to money, though, there is nothing that is a good or bad investment (or currency move). There are only expensive and cheap investments (or currencies), just like buying a pair of jeans at $50 is more expensive than buying a pair of jeans for $15 on sale. It was neither "good' nor "evil" to have purchased the jeans at either price. If gold becomes cheap, it's a better buy than an expensive bitcoin and vice versa.

Just reflecting over a record of your thoughts so far about bitcoin:

Quote:Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike.

Quote:I will strongly reconsider my investment in Bitcoin if we haven't hit at least 10,000$ by the end of 2016.

Interesting.

You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Here is an interesting video from one of the smart guys in the bitcoin space that expands on the idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIvqJsCOSo

Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?


I have my doubts about whether we can assert, with any level of logical confidence, that bitcoin will outlast gold.

Nonetheless, at this moment in time, there seems to be considerably much more upside potential to bitcoin, as compared with gold because of the various added value aspects of bitcoin and its various features and infrastructure building and that currently, it's market value seems to be considerably short sighted regarding the extent to which BTC seems to be undervalued.

In any event, any surge in BTC prices could happen within the coming month or it may take 5 or more years to take hold.

Yes, we can surely become lucky and bet on bitcoin prices in either direction, but betting correctly may NOT signify that we have accounted for the large number of factors that gives it value, much above and beyond any direct relationship that it may have with interest rates and/or the trading of currencies based on interest rates and/or perceived value.

In any event, my vision of the future price of BTC lines up pretty closely with BRG44's in that I believe that BTC is on the verge of a upsurge in prices. Nonetheless, I am somewhat cautionary in any statement of BTC's bullish price direction because I do NOT want to fail to recognize a variety of bearish forces that have considerable incentives to place large downward price pressures on BTC in order to discourage confidence in BTC and to keep BTC prices suppressed in order to hang onto status quo financial institution dynamics for as long as feasible (and within their ability to manipulate).
07-20-2015 06:03 PM
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brg444 Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 06:03 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 11:07 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 10:53 AM)brg444 Wrote:  So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.

Actually, I said the opposite about gold: it's superior to all currencies.

When it comes to money, though, there is nothing that is a good or bad investment (or currency move). There are only expensive and cheap investments (or currencies), just like buying a pair of jeans at $50 is more expensive than buying a pair of jeans for $15 on sale. It was neither "good' nor "evil" to have purchased the jeans at either price. If gold becomes cheap, it's a better buy than an expensive bitcoin and vice versa.

Just reflecting over a record of your thoughts so far about bitcoin:

Quote:Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike.

Quote:I will strongly reconsider my investment in Bitcoin if we haven't hit at least 10,000$ by the end of 2016.

Interesting.

You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Here is an interesting video from one of the smart guys in the bitcoin space that expands on the idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIvqJsCOSo

Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?


I have my doubts about whether we can assert, with any level of logical confidence, that bitcoin will outlast gold.

Nonetheless, at this moment in time, there seems to be considerably much more upside potential to bitcoin, as compared with gold because of the various added value aspects of bitcoin and its various features and infrastructure building and that currently, it's market value seems to be considerably short sighted regarding the extent to which BTC seems to be undervalued.

In any event, any surge in BTC prices could happen within the coming month or it may take 5 or more years to take hold.

Yes, we can surely become lucky and bet on bitcoin prices in either direction, but betting correctly may NOT signify that we have accounted for the large number of factors that gives it value, much above and beyond any direct relationship that it may have with interest rates and/or the trading of currencies based on interest rates and/or perceived value.

In any event, my vision of the future price of BTC lines up pretty closely with BRG44's in that I believe that BTC is on the verge of a upsurge in prices. Nonetheless, I am somewhat cautionary in any statement of BTC's bullish price direction because I do NOT want to fail to recognize a variety of bearish forces that have considerable incentives to place large downward price pressures on BTC in order to discourage confidence in BTC and to keep BTC prices suppressed in order to hang onto status quo financial institution dynamics for as long as feasible (and within their ability to manipulate).

Well from a physical perspective we are certain, logically, that it can oulast gold Wink
07-20-2015 07:18 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 07:18 PM)brg444 Wrote:  Well from a physical perspective we are certain, logically, that it can oulast gold Wink


Surely, you are joking, Mr. BRG....

Even though I do NOT appreciate the various arguments denigrating Bitcoin because bitcoin is NOT sufficiently tangible, like gold, we must admit that gold is a hell of a lot more tangible than Bitcoin.

I believe that Bitcoin needs at least two computers (a network) to survive, and really, computer networks are really NOT very old, and we do NOT know how long that networks will survive...

However, to assert that bitcoin is NOT valuable because it is NOT physical like gold is stupidly and ridiculously absurd in its failure to recognize the modern world and the era of the network.

Anyhow, absent some major armageddon, it is likely that bitcoin is going to survive much beyond our own lifetimes and the lifetimes of any living person now in being... so in that sense, bitcoin should be valuable as a promising upside innovation in terms of its abilities to materially rock our worlds and to be built upon for many many generations to come (or at least until something better comes along to supercede it).

Well, anyhow, I understand that I am preaching to the Choir, if you, BRG, are part of my audience, yet nonetheless, sometimes, I think that it is important to reiterate some of these various aspects of bitcoin and the various contending views about "value." I am confident that even some guys in the forum could be mislead by some of the information that is circulated through mainstream media channels.... accordingly, this thread should be helpful to clarify these kinds of public perception matters to the extent to which guys in the forum may be researching into the costs and benefits of investing their time, energy, and possible finances into Bitcoin and/or some other crypto currencies.
07-20-2015 11:47 PM
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SunW Offline
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The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

What percent of your wealth is in bitcoin? Considering what you believe, it should be at least 80% of it. If not, why aren't you converting the rest. You realize that bitcoin going to $10K by 2016 from an starting point of $300 is 33x principal growth and I'd love to know where you think you're going to get that kind of return outside bitcoin (meaning it would be irrational to hold anything else if you strongly believe that will be your return).

Quote:You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Have you met the metric system? Consider it, then consider something like BitGold.

Quote:Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?

Statements like this make me realize why most people aren't cut out to work on Wall Street. You don't understand how interest rates could interact with bitcoin, you don't understand how something can be cheap while something can be expensive or even how to assess relative value of each, etc. You seem to have strong financial views about bitcoin, yet don't seem to be aware how our entire financial system works or how we measure things.

Don't agree; buy as many bitcoins as you can while "knowing" that it hits $10,000 in 2016, expect interest rates won't affect bitcoin at all (assuming they actually raise rates - it's possible they won't), and forget about comparing the cost of bitcoin to the cost of gold and evaluating which would be a better buy in a given time frame. Follow exactly to the letter what you think and let's see how you do!
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2015 08:15 AM by SunW.)
07-21-2015 08:14 AM
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brg444 Offline
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Post: #2143
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-20-2015 11:47 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 07:18 PM)brg444 Wrote:  Well from a physical perspective we are certain, logically, that it can oulast gold Wink


Surely, you are joking, Mr. BRG....

Even though I do NOT appreciate the various arguments denigrating Bitcoin because bitcoin is NOT sufficiently tangible, like gold, we must admit that gold is a hell of a lot more tangible than Bitcoin.

I believe that Bitcoin needs at least two computers (a network) to survive, and really, computer networks are really NOT very old, and we do NOT know how long that networks will survive...

However, to assert that bitcoin is NOT valuable because it is NOT physical like gold is stupidly and ridiculously absurd in its failure to recognize the modern world and the era of the network.

Anyhow, absent some major armageddon, it is likely that bitcoin is going to survive much beyond our own lifetimes and the lifetimes of any living person now in being...

Tangibility has never been a mandatory feature of money. In fact, the physical nature of gold comes with great disadvantages.

Allow me to quote the people at #bitcoin-assets channel to illustrate properly the idea:

Quote:decimation: Bitcoin teaches that the valuable part of the gold coin isn’t the physical coin but merely the information it conveys.
asciilifeform: was this really a shock to anyone?
mircea_popescu: Are we sure this is actually true ? It could just as well show that the pedestrian definition of “physical” isn’t really as important as we thought. What is more “physically yours” than something nobody can take from you ?the laws of physics are after all maffs, all of them.
asciilifeform: If gold could be teleported at will, and likewise stowed in an inaccessible ‘never-land’ by the owner, one would need no electronic cryptocoin.
mircea_popescu: The absence of both of these being long regarded as a bug in the implementation of physicality.

While the network may die or be put on hold for awhile because of unforeseen circumstances, your private key hash, unlike gold, can last forever and safely be passed on to the following generations until the network is accessible again. After all, as Popescu mentions, Bitcoin is math and if there is one thing we can be sure will outlast gold, it's physics/math.

To whomever likes to bring up the ill-fated max mad scenario where the whole network goes down I always suggest to weight the probability of this happening vs. a sudden and important increase in gold "production" (asteroid mining for example).

This thought experiment will also reveal another important superior feature of Bitcoin: mathematically enforced scarcity.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2015 08:22 AM by brg444.)
07-21-2015 08:21 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

What percent of your wealth is in bitcoin? Considering what you believe, it should be at least 80% of it. If not, why aren't you converting the rest. You realize that bitcoin going to $10K by 2016 from an starting point of $300 is 33x principal growth and I'd love to know where you think you're going to get that kind of return outside bitcoin (meaning it would be irrational to hold anything else if you strongly believe that will be your return).

It is indeed around 80%

(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  Have you met the metric system? Consider it, then consider something like BitGold.

To what extent exactly can you divide your gold and have it remain practical for trades? Can I purchase a loaf of bread from you with gold? Surely not. Can you do micro-transactions with gold?

And please for the love of god tell me you are not trusting any amount of money and certainly not your gold holding to services like Bitgold... Consider counter-party risks.

(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  Statements like this make me realize why most people aren't cut out to work on Wall Street. You don't understand how interest rates could interact with bitcoin, you don't understand how something can be cheap while something can be expensive or even how to assess relative value of each, etc. You seem to have strong financial views about bitcoin, yet don't seem to be aware how our entire financial system works or how we measure things.

Huh

Look, Mr. Wall Street, your hubris is precisely why I despise the likes of you who pretend to be "aware of how our entire financial system works" because you learned it in Soviet-Harvard university and economists told you so.

I am obviously aware of the impacts an interest hike can have on commodities and what not. The point is Bitcoin currently sits at a 3-4B$ market cap. Unless we see a fantastic rise in the coming months I am fairly confident in saying that whatever your FED bros decide will have little to no impact for Bitcoin short-term likely accelerate its chances of success long term.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2015 08:44 AM by brg444.)
07-21-2015 08:42 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  You might want to quote this one as well for posterity : Bitcoin will outlast gold.

What percent of your wealth is in bitcoin? Considering what you believe, it should be at least 80% of it. If not, why aren't you converting the rest. You realize that bitcoin going to $10K by 2016 from an starting point of $300 is 33x principal growth and I'd love to know where you think you're going to get that kind of return outside bitcoin (meaning it would be irrational to hold anything else if you strongly believe that will be your return).

I get what you are saying SunW regarding if someone really believes in the upside of something so much that they should invest a lot of their personal assets into that area. Yet, on the other hand, there are going to be varying levels of ability to diversify, depending upon how much money a person is able to invest.... and the extent to which he or she may be locked into certain kinds of investments. In other words, some assets are more liquid than others and sometimes, there may be considerable costs if one first has to ensure various payments of basic living expenses before having investment assets.





(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  
Quote:You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Have you met the metric system? Consider it, then consider something like BitGold.


Really, there is NOTHING too special about bitgold... it is a centralized system that is both limited by the limited upside of gold and the various manipulations of gold.




(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  
Quote:Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?

Statements like this make me realize why most people aren't cut out to work on Wall Street. You don't understand how interest rates could interact with bitcoin, you don't understand how something can be cheap while something can be expensive or even how to assess relative value of each, etc. You seem to have strong financial views about bitcoin, yet don't seem to be aware how our entire financial system works or how we measure things.

I doubt that anyone in this thread needs to be qualified to work on wall street or even to understand the whole financial system in order to feel confident in investing in Bitcoin and/or any other crypto currencies.

Surely, it remains a good thing to understand various financial dynamics and relationships between various financial factors, but even "financial experts" maintain varying perspectives regarding these financial relationships and predicting the directions of values/prices/manipulations.


(07-21-2015 08:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  Don't agree; buy as many bitcoins as you can while "knowing" that it hits $10,000 in 2016, expect interest rates won't affect bitcoin at all (assuming they actually raise rates - it's possible they won't), and forget about comparing the cost of bitcoin to the cost of gold and evaluating which would be a better buy in a given time frame. Follow exactly to the letter what you think and let's see how you do!

It is NOT a bad thing to keep people in check regarding their predictions, yet as I already stated, there may be some variance in whether people are ready, willing and able to invest in strict compliance with their beliefs and predictions.

I think that we have these kinds of discussions in order to learn about how people are investing and how they are diversifying their investments.

SunW, do you mind providing some rough overview or synopsis regarding how you personally are diversifying your investments? for example, describe for us your rough percentages of allocations of your assets in gold as compared with real estate as compared with stocks as compared with cash and allocations in cryptocurrencies (such as bitcoin)
07-24-2015 09:56 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-21-2015 08:21 AM)brg444 Wrote:  While the network may die or be put on hold for awhile because of unforeseen circumstances, your private key hash, unlike gold, can last forever and safely be passed on to the following generations until the network is accessible again. After all, as Popescu mentions, Bitcoin is math and if there is one thing we can be sure will outlast gold, it's physics/math.

To whomever likes to bring up the ill-fated max mad scenario where the whole network goes down I always suggest to weight the probability of this happening vs. a sudden and important increase in gold "production" (asteroid mining for example).

This thought experiment will also reveal another important superior feature of Bitcoin: mathematically enforced scarcity.

Actually, I agree with each of your above points, and I failed to note your point about the network going down and then coming back up.... Certainly, the value of bitcoin could be maintained in such a downed network scenario.

I also would like to chime in regarding mad max scenarios being a hell of a lot less likely than other scenarios, and really, I personally believe that it is NOT very psychologically healthy or financially prudent to live ones life providing way greater probability to such unlikely eventualities than they deserve. Surely, we have to account for a variety of scenarios, but we should be gambling regarding the more likely scenarios rather than the outlying extreme predictions.
07-24-2015 10:04 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Actually, I woke up to a nice little $10 spike this morning... .. nice little surprise... but will it last through the weekend?

Maybe by next month, we will be wishing that we had gotten into bitcoin in the $200s?
07-24-2015 10:08 AM
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The Bitcoin thread
JayJuanGee, those points were directed at BRG, not anyone else. For instance, my point about BitGold was that it's an attempt to break down gold into smaller pieces and use it for transactions. Whether someone finds that appealing or not is irrelevant to the point that you can break down gold by using the metric system, like we can break down bitcoin into smaller pieces.

Quote:SunW, do you mind providing some rough overview or synopsis regarding how you personally are diversifying your investments? for example, describe for us your rough percentages of allocations of your assets in gold as compared with real estate as compared with stocks as compared with cash and allocations in cryptocurrencies (such as bitcoin)

My preferred investment route and one that I follow closer than anything else I'm aware of (relative to prices) is the permanent portfolio: 25% cash, 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% commodities. I differ by category, though, for instance a basket of currencies for cash, and I would consider bitcoin in the commodities because that basket is really decentralized "stuff" (not necessarily commodities, but "stuff" that cannot be controlled, printed, etc). The other major difference is that I would never distribute it equally every year; I was not buying gold when it was above $1500 or silver when it was above $20 and I would consider people who did that suckers because they're failing to look the value of something relative to the value of something else - for instance, the value of gold at $1700 an ounce was too expensive relative to the value of the USD or bitcoin at the time (2011-2012).

I would say something similar right now with stocks: they're very expensive while commodities are becoming cheap (and by virtue may become good buying opportunities). Just an example of how I look across asset classes: think value investing only with bonds, commodities and cash included. Likewise, interest rate increases can pop bubbles big time and for people unprepared, create major headaches. One must always be wary about purchasing any security during a year which interest rates could rise, or rise quickly.
(This post was last modified: 07-24-2015 12:04 PM by SunW.)
07-24-2015 12:01 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(07-24-2015 12:01 PM)SunW Wrote:  JayJuanGee, those points were directed at BRG, not anyone else. For instance, my point about BitGold was that it's an attempt to break down gold into smaller pieces and use it for transactions. Whether someone finds that appealing or not is irrelevant to the point that you can break down gold by using the metric system, like we can break down bitcoin into smaller pieces.

We should each realize that when posting in an RVF thread, the post becomes public and part of the thread, and thus fair game for any RVF member to chime in, to the extent to which he identifies points that are interesting to him or potentially interesting to guys reading the thread and/or somewhat relevant to the thread. Otherwise, if you had intended the message to be directly personal to BRG, then likely, the more appropriate channel would be via personal messaging.

I believe that I mostly understood, and even kind of agree, with your point regarding BitGold; however, we should recognize that Bitgold and Bitcoin are two quite different animals, and accordingly, should be distinguished from one another.

I neither proclaim to be an expert at BitGold nor Bitcoin; however, I believe that I am sufficiently familiar with the concepts of each to understand that even though they have some similarities (and maybe BitGold is attempting to imitate some of the positive aspects of bitcoin (divisibility and transferability)). In any event, both BRG and I have responded to you regarding the more important value adding aspect of bitcoin, as compared with bitgold, and that is the decentralized intrinsic and innovative design of bitcoin - that distinguishes btc in a meaningful and value adding way from bitgold, even though bitgold seems to be attempting to imitate some of btc's other laudable features.





(07-24-2015 12:01 PM)SunW Wrote:  
Quote:SunW, do you mind providing some rough overview or synopsis regarding how you personally are diversifying your investments? for example, describe for us your rough percentages of allocations of your assets in gold as compared with real estate as compared with stocks as compared with cash and allocations in cryptocurrencies (such as bitcoin)

My preferred investment route and one that I follow closer than anything else I'm aware of (relative to prices) is the permanent portfolio: 25% cash, 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% commodities. I differ by category, though, for instance a basket of currencies for cash, and I would consider bitcoin in the commodities because that basket is really decentralized "stuff" (not necessarily commodities, but "stuff" that cannot be controlled, printed, etc). The other major difference is that I would never distribute it equally every year; I was not buying gold when it was above $1500 or silver when it was above $20 and I would consider people who did that suckers because they're failing to look the value of something relative to the value of something else - for instance, the value of gold at $1700 an ounce was too expensive relative to the value of the USD or bitcoin at the time (2011-2012).

I would say something similar right now with stocks: they're very expensive while commodities are becoming cheap (and by virtue may become good buying opportunities). Just an example of how I look across asset classes: think value investing only with bonds, commodities and cash included. Likewise, interest rate increases can pop bubbles big time and for people unprepared, create major headaches. One must always be wary about purchasing any security during a year which interest rates could rise, or rise quickly.

Thank you for disclosing some of your personal details and preferences regarding investments, and even your considerations on investment goals and how those might be tweaked based on your personal assessment of the financial, macro-economics and/or political situations of any particular time-period.

I have no real disagreement with your various statements about these kinds of preferences, and it seems to be generally beneficial for you to share some of these concepts as they may relate to bitcoin and various RVF members' considerations regarding whether or when to invest in bitcoin.

At the same time, however, I have some concerns when your tone comes off as if you are seeming to suggest that other guys are dumb or that you are smarter than other guys when it comes to finances. I doubt that it is necessary to assert whether you are smarter or dumber than other guys, even if true, in order to make a large number of points within this thread or topics related to this thread.

I think that this thread does tend to touch on a variety of financial topics related to bitcoin, and surely, sometimes, we do get on a little bit of a tangent; however, many of us probably do not mind such tangents as many of us likely view a larger number of financial topics (including various alternative crypto topics and economic and social and political issues - and even potentially religious topics) to be arguably related to bitcoin (such a seemingly amazing phenomenon - that even though it has had some past success, seems to be yet to see its hayday).
07-24-2015 01:33 PM
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SunW Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
If you want to jump into a discussion, that's fine, but you need to pay attention how it started, which is why I made the comments I did:

(07-20-2015 11:07 AM)SunW Wrote:  
(07-20-2015 10:53 AM)brg444 Wrote:  So you realise Bitcoin is superior to gold yet you choose to buy gold Huh

Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike. \

Gold has been good to humanity for 6000+ years yes but now that we finally have the opportunity to use something way better, we should embrace it.

Actually, I said the opposite about gold: it's superior to all currencies.

When it comes to money, though, there is nothing that is a good or bad investment (or currency move). There are only expensive and cheap investments (or currencies), just like buying a pair of jeans at $50 is more expensive than buying a pair of jeans for $15 on sale. It was neither "good' nor "evil" to have purchased the jeans at either price. If gold becomes cheap, it's a better buy than an expensive bitcoin and vice versa.

Just reflecting over a record of your thoughts so far about bitcoin:

Quote:Also, Bitcoin is way too small to be affected so much by an interest rate hike.

Quote:I will strongly reconsider my investment in Bitcoin if we haven't hit at least 10,000$ by the end of 2016.

Interesting.

There has been no solid macroeconomic (or microeconomic) reason offered why bitcoin will hit $10K in 2016. I'm still waiting for this. Just cuz isn't a reason. Additionally, with gold, silver and a basket of commodities becoming cheaper, those may be the best buys of 2016. We'll see, but outside of an insane QE (like 10 trillion), we probably won't see bitcoin at $10K.

Stated differently, "Wall Street Style", who's buying bitcoin at $10K when gold is $500 an ounce, silver is $5 an ounce, 30YT are yielding 5%, and developing stock markets have fallen 80%? The answer: no one with a brain.

(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  You provided yourself an example of why Bitcoin is superior to gold : divisibility.

Above, see the divisibility statement. Ironically, I never said any such thing. The point of gold being divisible is that other commodities are divisible and that's part of the reason for measuring systems such as the Metric (which is not the only measuring system). Both you and BRG are mistaking an example for an argument. An example is not an argument; an example is a demonstration of how something works.

BitGold is a derivative of e-gold, which was founded in 1999, long before bitcoin. BitGold (and it seems like you're distracted by the name) has absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin and is not copying it whatsoever. E-gold was shut down by the US Government and George Soros (and his sons) have been interested in starting a gold backed global currency, which is what BitGold is. One of Soros' sons was the early investor, BitGold was started outside of the United States (wise move), and it holds gold all over the world (another wise move).

The problem I have with BitGold is that, so far as I know, you can't lend it out. That was my criticism of it. That may change.

Now, this sentence may be totally missed, but it needs to be said. None of the above words are arguments in favor or against bitcoin or gold. I like both. I like both a lot. But as Solomon would say, "There's a time and place for everything under the sun" and the time to buy may not be now with an interest rate increase knocking at the door. As I've already said in this thread, I want to see how bitcoin reacts to that because I suspect it may offer me a great buying opportunity. It also may create a market run, panic, and the Fed is right back to QE.

(07-20-2015 12:11 PM)brg444 Wrote:  Also, I'm not quite certain I understand or agree with your comment on currencies. It is all relative. Under what circumstances would you qualify gold as "cheap" or bitcoin "expensive"?

As for intelligence in a discussion, see those last sentences relative to what I had posted.

I'll reiterate: bitcoin offers a lot of benefits I like. I am not buying right at this moment (I already own quite a few), as I want to see how the bitcoin market reacts to an interest rate increase, if it happens this year. I am very interested in people's perspectives on it, but I am not interested in fanboy's perspectives of it, so I don't intend to continue discussions with fanboys. I will continue discussing it with people, like yourself, who offer insight. Insight is not something a fanboy can offer; they say things like "It has an advantage over gold in that it's divisible" when they don't see how obvious gold divisibility is too (or silver). Fanboys aren't objective about things; it's like speaking to a blue-piller about his girl - she's perfect no matter what.
(This post was last modified: 07-24-2015 03:14 PM by SunW.)
07-24-2015 03:08 PM
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