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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3126
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-04-2016 08:57 PM)Bushido Wrote:  
(11-04-2016 04:16 PM)pants Wrote:  
(11-04-2016 12:41 PM)Bushido Wrote:  Hillary is the status quo so her winning shouldn't hurt the BTC price too much or shock the markets.

I'd put Trump's chances of winning at 90%. 10% Hillary because I don't have a crystal ball and electoral fraud is possible.

If you really think 90% is a valuable probability, I rather put some money on trump winning through a booking site. That will give you much better bang for the bucks in the long run.

I don't have the stomach to possibly lose all my money. Even if 10% is a small probability. Simple as that.

I personally believe that the reason that you respond that you do not feel comfortable betting is because you don't believe your own estimation of probabilities of such future events at 90/10 Trump/Clinton, because in reality you should feel completely comfortable in making a wager that is approximately in proportion to your belief of probability that such an event will occur (whether you are betting $10 or $1,000, now that is a different story - you should only bet what you have as extra cash flow apart from what you need for your other expenses and projected expenses). On the other hand, finding a suitable betting venue might be another more realistic obstacle.
11-05-2016 06:11 AM
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Bushido Offline
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Post: #3127
RE: The Bitcoin thread
No man. I'm not a betting man and wouldn't put money down even if I were 99% sure.

This way I get to "wager" without losing the principal. I wanted to increase my BTC holdings anyway and it's a totally reasonable approach.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2016 06:48 AM by Bushido.)
11-05-2016 06:47 AM
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Beyond Borders Away
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Post: #3128
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

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11-05-2016 07:02 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3129
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Can you provide a link to the one that you are referring to?

I think that there are several online courses that relate to crypto currencies.
11-05-2016 08:07 PM
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Bushido Offline
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Post: #3130
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Yes this one:

http://digitalcurrency.unic.ac.cy/free-i...tory-mooc/

I also haven't looked at it yet.Big Grin
11-05-2016 08:56 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3131
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-05-2016 08:56 PM)Bushido Wrote:  
(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

Yes this one:

http://digitalcurrency.unic.ac.cy/free-i...tory-mooc/

I also haven't looked at it yet.Big Grin


Oh.. I had heard something about this, but I had never seen a link or actual description.

That looks pretty interesting. It is like a free degree (or certification), so it is much more than one or two courses in "digital currencies."

I will certainly look into it, and maybe i will recommend friends, too.

Even if it is free, financially, there is likely a certain level of obligation to spend quite a bit of time in reviewing whatever materials that they provide... but still may be a decent use of time for folks who are interested in the topic.
11-06-2016 01:29 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3132
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's a recent thread discussing the alleged affect of the Chinese bitcoin trading and regulation on the price of bitcoin.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...ain_today/


Quite a bit of bullshit related to over stating the Chinese influence on bitcoin, even though inevitably china is a factor, whether it is actual or over emphasized perceptions.
11-06-2016 05:20 PM
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Bushido Offline
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Post: #3133
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Well I was right about the election, but wrong about the extent of the hit on the dollar. Turns out that people on Wall Street didn't panic as much as we were expecting. I'll take this outcome!
11-10-2016 03:59 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3134
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-10-2016 03:59 AM)Bushido Wrote:  Well I was right about the election, but wrong about the extent of the hit on the dollar. Turns out that people on Wall Street didn't panic as much as we were expecting. I'll take this outcome!


Regarding your Trump prediction, and our earlier discussion of betting on that outcome, I had been thinking about writing a further response regarding that matter and whether you had sufficiently bet on the Trump outcome. Of course, there were ways to bet directly on such an outcome, and surely the odds would have been in your favor in a direct and official betting institutions because there was overwhelming consensus that a Trump win was not very statistically probable given the states that he would need to win and the total expectations regarding how extreme of a persona that he tends to present.

So, yeah, I was also live watching the election results through various websites, and the various prediction meters of the NYT and 538 and a couple of others, and pretty consistently in the beginning of the night, the odds were quite considerably with Hilary... but then as some of the states showed Trump and even closer than expected and even opposite than as expected, the flip came pretty fast and it became more and more statistically improbable that Hilary was going to make up for the momentum of some of those larger states that Trump was winning and flipping.

I was also attempting to live trade bitcoin based on such election results, and I kind of changed my normal BTC trading plan and practice in order to attempt to capitalize on the unexpected news. And, yeah, initially the traditional markets went down and the bitcoin prices went up, but those price movements only seemed to have lasted for a few hours, and by the time the USA markets opened up on Wednesday morning, the negative reaction of the traditional markets had already largely played themselves out... and accordingly, the bitcoin market seemed to have played itself out too.... possibly partly based on the lack luster and even turning out positive day long reaction of traditional markets.

Yeah, so I was also expecting some violent upwards BTC price movements that would at least bring us above the mid-$700s based on such news (and expected instability in traditional markets), and pretty much the BTC up came and then came back down and currently (in the $716 to $718 arena) we are only remaining about 1% or possibly 2% above where we started in the lower $700s, but maybe overall this Trump outcome will continue to contribute to upwards BTC price pressures - even though such upwards BTC price pressures may not be clearly and directly attributable to Trump effects, exactly?

I think that there are also some kinds of waiting and seeing what kinds of things he is going to do in transitional type announcements, and even if he comes off of some of his extreme and shocking kinds of behaviors (because maybe there is less utility in some of that once he has actually clearly gotten the power to make some of the changes that he was proclaiming that he was going to make).

By the way, even though I took some initial actions in preparation for a potential violent upwards BTC price swing based on the Trump win, by the middle of the night, I had half way reverted back to a modified position based on the non occurence of any kind of violent upwards price movement, and then after the market came back down from its very little upwards movement of 5-6%, I initiated a kind of trade that allowed me to pretty much revert back to my original BTC trading strategy which allows for continued incremental BTC selling on the way up and incremental buying BTC on the way down... without really banking on explosive growth (or a crash), even though I still would be financially prepared for either explosive direction, if either explosive direction were to occur.
11-10-2016 06:11 AM
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Post: #3135
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I completed the course, DEFINITELY worth it.

(11-05-2016 07:02 PM)Beyond Borders Wrote:  Anyone else end up signing on for that digital currencies course?

I did but have yet to dig through the material.

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11-10-2016 09:10 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3136
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Actually markets are quite strange, and frequently, they seem to go down a path that is the opposite of expectations.

Really? An additional upwards cascading of traditional markets, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to be heading very closely to a new ATH in the coming days (if not today? hahahaha)

None of this is really detrimental to bitcoin, yet I do anticipate that bitcoin remains a kind of hedge (or even a counter performer) in respect to traditional markets - even though from time to time, it could also move somewhat parallel too. Bitcoin remains so small that it remains fairly easy to manipulate in any direction in the short term - even while expected longer term performance should be trending upwards. No?
11-10-2016 02:29 PM
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ShanghaiPlayer Offline
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Post: #3137
RE: The Bitcoin thread
This is slightly off topic, but is anyone planning to buy Trumpcoin with your BTC?
11-10-2016 09:58 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3138
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-10-2016 09:58 PM)ShanghaiPlayer Wrote:  This is slightly off topic, but is anyone planning to buy Trumpcoin with your BTC?


Yeah, it is a bit off topic, but such a topic may go well in the Alternative Crypto thread.

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-32992...pid1433227
11-10-2016 10:02 PM
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Post: #3139
RE: The Bitcoin thread
It took me a little while to read and digest the below linked article, which is a response to a request for comments submission by ARK investment regarding the bitcoin ETF.

https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-batsbzx-...630-23.pdf

In essence, they are not against a bitcoin ETF; however, they are of the opinion that at this time, a bitcoin ETF would be premature because in part, they believe that the bitcoin market is insufficiently liquid and accordingly a bitcoin ETF would likely cause way too much upwards volatility. Furthermore, they seem to be strongly suggesting that there are potential conflicts of interest with the winklvoss twins and the ETF and Gemini Exchange, which could be true, and is further commented upon in Reddit, below link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...nvestment/

Also, the reddit link, above, shows that the ARK investors seem to have a kind of competing product... hm?

Anyhow, surely, the ARK investors are entitled to their opinion, and they seem to be a bit more knowledgeable than me in regards to the history and functions of ETFs - nonetheless, I kind of remain of the opinion that the supposed lack of maturity of the bitcoin market, the ability to manipulate bitcoin and its prices and bitcoin's inability to support an ETF is overstated, yet I can understand why regulators may act with a bit of conservativism and caution.

Regarding current state of bitcoin liquidity versus future liquidity, surely there may be some prematurity in suggesting that bitcoin remains too small - because if there is another 10x or 100x increase in prices (and market cap), which are quite possible, it becomes much more difficult to manipulate BTC prices - even though I would concede that we gotta get some more development in bitcoin regarding how various exchanges influence prices (which seems to make BTC seem even smaller with greater manipulative outcomes)
11-14-2016 02:10 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3140
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Probably the podcast that I consider to be the most informative and correct in it's ongoing expressed skeptisms of various alt coins is bitcoin uncensored.

But, Ansel Linders seems to frequently express a decent amount of alt coin skepticism, too. In his most recent podcast from a few days ago, he discussed the apparent pump and dump appearance of the charts of almost every single alt coin that has ever reached a decent-sized market cap.


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment..._the_east/

For some reason, he states that he tentatively believes that Litecoin and Monero are potential exceptions to the pump and dump rule that seem to be shown by the charts.

By the way, I don't think that Linders is against going into various alt coins on a very short term basis, and in that regard, he seems to be suggesting that if a person goes into any alt coin on a temporary basis, he needs to remain somewhat vigilant in that entrance and be prepared to strategically exit - in hopes of not getting powned by the alt coin creators (and front runners) who seem to do the best by getting in and out before everyone else.
(This post was last modified: 11-14-2016 02:28 PM by JayJuanGee.)
11-14-2016 02:25 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3141
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-10-2016 06:11 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(11-10-2016 03:59 AM)Bushido Wrote:  Well I was right about the election, but wrong about the extent of the hit on the dollar. Turns out that people on Wall Street didn't panic as much as we were expecting. I'll take this outcome!


Regarding your Trump prediction, and our earlier discussion of betting on that outcome, I had been thinking about writing a further response regarding that matter and whether you had sufficiently bet on the Trump outcome. Of course, there were ways to bet directly on such an outcome, and surely the odds would have been in your favor in a direct and official betting institutions because there was overwhelming consensus that a Trump win was not very statistically probable given the states that he would need to win and the total expectations regarding how extreme of a persona that he tends to present.

So, yeah, I was also live watching the election results through various websites, and the various prediction meters of the NYT and 538 and a couple of others, and pretty consistently in the beginning of the night, the odds were quite considerably with Hilary... but then as some of the states showed Trump and even closer than expected and even opposite than as expected, the flip came pretty fast and it became more and more statistically improbable that Hilary was going to make up for the momentum of some of those larger states that Trump was winning and flipping.

I was also attempting to live trade bitcoin based on such election results, and I kind of changed my normal BTC trading plan and practice in order to attempt to capitalize on the unexpected news. And, yeah, initially the traditional markets went down and the bitcoin prices went up, but those price movements only seemed to have lasted for a few hours, and by the time the USA markets opened up on Wednesday morning, the negative reaction of the traditional markets had already largely played themselves out... and accordingly, the bitcoin market seemed to have played itself out too.... possibly partly based on the lack luster and even turning out positive day long reaction of traditional markets.

Yeah, so I was also expecting some violent upwards BTC price movements that would at least bring us above the mid-$700s based on such news (and expected instability in traditional markets), and pretty much the BTC up came and then came back down and currently (in the $716 to $718 arena) we are only remaining about 1% or possibly 2% above where we started in the lower $700s, but maybe overall this Trump outcome will continue to contribute to upwards BTC price pressures - even though such upwards BTC price pressures may not be clearly and directly attributable to Trump effects, exactly?

I think that there are also some kinds of waiting and seeing what kinds of things he is going to do in transitional type announcements, and even if he comes off of some of his extreme and shocking kinds of behaviors (because maybe there is less utility in some of that once he has actually clearly gotten the power to make some of the changes that he was proclaiming that he was going to make).

By the way, even though I took some initial actions in preparation for a potential violent upwards BTC price swing based on the Trump win, by the middle of the night, I had half way reverted back to a modified position based on the non occurence of any kind of violent upwards price movement, and then after the market came back down from its very little upwards movement of 5-6%, I initiated a kind of trade that allowed me to pretty much revert back to my original BTC trading strategy which allows for continued incremental BTC selling on the way up and incremental buying BTC on the way down... without really banking on explosive growth (or a crash), even though I still would be financially prepared for either explosive direction, if either explosive direction were to occur.

To continue a little bit on the Trump effect in relation to bitcoin, yeah there have been various kinds of discussion and articles.

I think that this thread (and article) attempts to play on that theme and to more or less assert that Trump is going to be a disaster for traditional markets, and therefore that is good for bitcoin.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...y_in_2017/

Based on market reactions, and maybe even defying the expectations of a large number of folks (including yours truly), there is a kind of illogical nature of markets and even going with momentum and even pumping of momentum.

So, it could be that traditional markets (dollar and dollar based stocks) will have another 3 -6 months or even longer of decent and even bullish performance, and then when folks get all excited and really are pumping their money into such continued and unexpected bullish performance, we will experience a reversal.

I have my doubts regarding the extent to which bitcoin is exactly correlated (or oppositely correlated) to the performance of various traditional markets that are connected with the dollar. Of course, there is some correlation, yet at the same time, it is becoming more and more apparent that bitcoin remains in a kind of league by itself as a new asset class... so yeah, bitcoin can grow and seem to experience some parallel growth with various asset classes, but I surmise that bitcoin's growth curve is going to continue largely on an upwards trajectory in spite of potential continued and ongoing corrections that suggest that it is being corrected when it is going to continue upwardly and onwardly.


Also, in the below link, we have more and more traditional banks getting into bitcoin in one kind of way or another (and maybe even sometimes behind the scenes?)


http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/11/13/shinha...mittances/

In the end, the benefits of bitcoin is not necessarily the fact that various traditional banking institutions are attempting to onboard bitcoin, but surely the involvement of such traditional institutions does bring additional legitimacy to bitcoin even though there are likely going to continue to be a lot of opportunities in the longer run for folks to incorporate more and more p2p solutions with bitcoin and to skip some of the intermediary avenues of third party banks (unless some of these banks can figure out ways to actually lend some value to the whole proposition of bitcoin holding and transmitting of value through bitcoin).
11-14-2016 02:59 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3142
RE: The Bitcoin thread
According to the below articles, it appears that there is going to be a bitcoin "futures" market filing by CME Group Inc. The inference is that they are going to file it with Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and they have already created a bitcoin price index that they assert fits with industry standards and would be used in price determinations for the product.


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-fu...1114-00953

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-futu...1479143252 (I was not able to read, and I think that you need a WSJ account to read this article online)
11-15-2016 03:45 PM
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Mr. Scumbag Offline
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Post: #3143
RE: The Bitcoin thread
It's on the rise again, yet nary a peep from you guys. Wtf? lol

Time to buy?
11-17-2016 01:56 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3144
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-17-2016 01:56 AM)Mr. Scumbag Wrote:  It's on the rise again, yet nary a peep from you guys. Wtf? lol

Time to buy?


You get plenty from me, whether BTC prices are rising or not, and you already likely know from me that it is always time to buy at least some BTC, just a matter of how much and what kind of strategy to get a stake into bitcoin because by now, you should have been buying BTC for quite a while (at least the last couple of years).. and sure there are legit excuses of not buying in events that BTC was not yet on your radar.

What about you ScumB? Have you been buying bitcoins? selling? or anything else in relation to bitcoin?

Certainly, nice to experience more than 5% price bump in past 24 hours with seemingly continuing and ongoing upward price pressures. The charts are looking good in a lot of ways and in an lot of recent time periods, and there appears to be quite a bit more upwards potential (though of course no guarantees that upwards prices are going to continue - even though looking good and very bullish at the moment)
11-17-2016 02:15 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3145
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Here's a couple of good bitcoin bullishness articles.

1) bail-ins in Italy potentially a boost for bitcoin

2) how bitcoin could reach $10k per coin or even $10 million per coin.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-b...ng-bail-in
11-17-2016 02:31 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3146
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I know that sometimes I have posted pretty bullish scenarios with the impeding activation of seg wit, yet there remains quite a few folks betting against seg wit going live.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...ce_segwit/

I kind of think that when push comes to shove miners are going to be more practical than to aim at blocking seg wit. Seg wit should be a fairly non controversial solution, step forward and financial advancement of bitcoin.. but if it does not implement, that would probably be a bit bearish... or at least a bit less bullish.
11-17-2016 05:58 PM
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Mr. Scumbag Offline
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Post: #3147
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Bought and sold last year.

Dipping again. I might wait a little to see if it drops further, then buy again.
11-17-2016 07:23 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #3148
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(11-17-2016 07:23 PM)Mr. Scumbag Wrote:  Bought and sold last year.

Dipping again. I might wait a little to see if it drops further, then buy again.


Yeah.. can be good to buy on the dips.

I already mentioned this earlier in the thread, but in about late 2014, I began to tell several people about bitcoin while prices were in the upper $300s, expecting that prices were going to go up from there.

Some people got in and then got scared to death when the price went into the lower $200s and then floated in the mid $200s for almost a year, and other people bought in the $200s.

My girlfriend actually was someone who bought at various points in 2015 between upper $100s and mid $300s, but in the end had about a mid $200s buy average, but when prices shot up to $350 and then to $500 in October / November 2015, she got pretty anxious and sold all the bitcoins that she then owned at $350 - making nearly $2k in the process. but then it was difficult for her to determine exactly when to get in and how much to get in at a time.

My point is that there can be a bit of confusion and even some contradicting information concerning a decent bitcoin buying opportunity and when to sell and how much.
11-17-2016 07:33 PM
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Post: #3149
RE: The Bitcoin thread
This article describes the increase in the bitcoin wallets on blockchain.info.


https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-bigges...onth-ever/


This article refers to some kind of partnership that blockchain has with coinify and creating new services. I don't see them on my end, and maybe because I am in the USA?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comment...n_instant/



Here's several Localbitcoin related articles in the past month describing all time high trading in volume in a large number of places including descriptions of: Europe, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United States, Brazil, Sweden, Venezuela, Turkey and Malaysia. I did not see India listed, though there has been discussion of increased volume in India, maybe that was through its exchange called http://www.unocoin.com (where there is currently about a $100 premium being paid for bitcoins bought there).


http://www.razor-forex.com/search/label/LocalBitcoins
11-17-2016 08:19 PM
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Post: #3150
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Interesting to see the apparently main public spokesperson of Bitfinex resign.


https://medium.com/@zanetackett/i-have-r....kyev54ugf


I found the resignation letter to be somewhat of interesting and understandable way of resigning (even though the statement is somewhat fraught with logical tension).

More or less, Tackett is saying that this is so much the best bitcoin exchange in the world (based on it's USD/BTC aspect), and I don't want to be a part of such a wonderful exchange because I no longer want to deal with public criticisms.
11-18-2016 06:22 PM
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