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The Bitcoin thread
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Dvorak Offline
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Post: #5576
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Anyone expecting a drop this Friday? Apparently black Friday people typically sell some coins to get some deals...

Apparently the end of the year is also a bad period (buying gifts, holidays etc.)...

I'm not sure if there will be a big drop that quick. A lot of people believe in the "10k before the end of the year" narrative, so they might try to buy the dip... But yeah, things can change quickly Dodgy
Yesterday 04:22 PM
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Neo Offline
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Post: #5577
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I liquidated some of my holdings around ~7700, but still hold a position and kept my recurring transactions going. I'll keep an eye on the price.
Yesterday 04:34 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5578
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 05:34 AM)Maciano Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:05 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Here's a current and decently bullish mainstream report that predicts bitcoin prices to rise to $14k in 2018 - which also demonstrates a point that I frequently make, which is that sometimes predictions need to be updated based on changes in events (and circumstances). Apparently, previously Ronnie Moas had predicted BTC to reach $11k in 2018 - but he upgraded his prediction based on the passage (or expectation) of some bullish events.



https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/standpoi...rcent.html

Tbh, that prediction isn’t very meaningful. Ronnie Moas is a good investor, so was excited about him being so bullish on BTC. Turns out, he’s a crypto babe in the woods. Two or three weeks ago he was pumping Chroestlcoin and then Bcash. His targets aren’t worth much imo.

And anyone who’s checked the bitcoin graph must acknowledge this parabolic pattern can’t go on forever. We’ll see a painful correction within a couple of months. Certainly before the end of 2018. I doubt 14K will be realistic by then. BTC will still moon for sure, but don’t bet on Moas or any mainstream media outfit. MSM has been calling BTC consistently wrong. No need to expect it’ll be different this time.

hahahahahaha

Fair enough criticism that any reliance that I may have incidentally placed on R. Moas or any other mainstream prognosticator.... So, surely, we should consider any BTC price prediction with a grain of salt, and it may even start to appear that I am becoming slightly more bullish than you Maciano... hahahahaha.. at least in the short term.

I will be the first to concede, over and over, that I don't really have any certain level of confidence, exactly where the price is going to go; however, we do continue to seem to have a lot of upwards price momentum in this space - and even though I agree with you that at some point there is going to be a pretty decently strong crash, yet with all the good news and developments, recently, the trend remains our friend, and that trend remains UP.


By the way, when you look at the charts with weekly candles and consider the gradual nature of this BTC price climb, compared to past exponential curves, this particular exponential climb is still coming out a bit more gradual, in comparison, and with a lot more decent sized corrections along the way.

Yet, I will concede that if you look at a chart with monthly candles, it does seem to appear that a correction could be imminent and could be quite harsh and long...

Check out this chart with monthly candles:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo...AMP:BTCUSD

So yeah, in previous posts, I have already pegged the next resistance in the $9600 to $13,600 price territory, so it does seem like it could be quite a while to break through such, but it does seem like it could have decent odds before the end of the year, perhaps in the 30% to 40% range - even perhaps less than 25% of actually breaking above that, but these are not trivial probabilities... and at the beginning of the year, I would have probably consider above $8k to be less than a 15% chance and maybe even less than a 10% chance.

But, here we are an our actual placement changes the realm of possibilities and probabilities.
Yesterday 06:50 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5579
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 08:15 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  CNBC is now confidently reporting that BTC will 2x?


God, I have GOT to sell this stuff.
I keep worrying about logging into Gdax since I'm out of the country, but at some point I have just got to bite the bullet and get rid of this stuff in the next week or two.

Maybe I can set up a VPN...

First it is funny that you are not already out, based on your previous bearish assessments, and second, hopefully you are not so rash as to sell everything... remember that you have a dollar cost averaging thread?

Do you even DCA? Laugh
Yesterday 06:54 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5580
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 11:44 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Worth buying Bitcoin now ?


Same advice is true, all the time, and that is that you have to do your own assessment of long term and prepare for price movements in both direction.

If you believe that the asset is a long term good investment, then you should, buy on the way down and sell on the way up, but you don't have any to sell if you have not bought any, yet. So sometimes you have to take a stake.

Up, down? who knows? you should not be investing anything more than you can afford to lose, which means not leveraging and having enough money that is not invested to cover your monthly living expenses projected out several months into the future.
Yesterday 06:58 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5581
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 04:22 PM)Dvorak Wrote:  Anyone expecting a drop this Friday? Apparently black Friday people typically sell some coins to get some deals...

Apparently the end of the year is also a bad period (buying gifts, holidays etc.)...

I'm not sure if there will be a big drop that quick. A lot of people believe in the "10k before the end of the year" narrative, so they might try to buy the dip... But yeah, things can change quickly Dodgy

I don't think anyone completely knows, and I doubt that bitcoin is very much connected to consumeristic trends, in terms of cashing out like you said in order to buy things for the holidays. We frequently hear those kinds of consumerism narratives but I doubt that they are specifically applicable to bitcoin, except perhaps on the margins.

More important is looking at trends and, you are correct that it can turn on a dime.... Remember we had a dip two weekends ago, and we had a dip last weekend.. but I doubt necessarily means that there is going to be a dip this weekend... sometimes long weekends can also be an opportunity to pump, and we have seen that historically, too... when people are preoccupied with family and entertainment, whales are pumping and perhaps shutting folks out and perhaps attempting to create FOMO for the following week?

I agree with you about your guess is as good as mine - re: turning on a dime...even though overall trend remains UP (until it's not)
Yesterday 07:05 PM
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yaku Online
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Post: #5582
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Bitcoin was about $750 a year ago, dropped about $15 around Thanksgiving weekend, then gradually climbed to $1000 around New Years.

The price is so high now that you probably don't really need to sell a lot of bitcoin to get shopping money.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 08:36 PM by yaku.)
Yesterday 08:35 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5583
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 08:35 PM)yaku Wrote:  Bitcoin was about $750 a year ago, dropped about $15 around Thanksgiving weekend, then gradually climbed to $1000 around New Years.

The price is so high now that you probably don't really need to sell a lot of bitcoin to get shopping money.

There is no way that it would be safe to assume that folks who would be cashing out (which I would likely classify as weaker hands) would have been holding throughout the whole of this calendar year and then all of a sudden feel like they need a bit of extra holidays cash.

People got in earlier than 2017, but there are also a variety of folks who got in during various points of 2017, and may feel some kind of need to cash in their $1800 profits in order to treat themselves.

I am not saying that cashing out does not exist, but I am saying that it is probably not as BIG of a factor as it is made out to be, and that peeps are going to stay in or out of bitcoin for deeper reasons rather than just being weak hands and feeling some needs to consume.

Now, if you lack confidence in bitcoin or its continued upwards price for other reasons, such as SamuelR had expressed, then consumption could just be a good excuse to get out and locking some profits could also be a good excuse - but hopefully, RVFers are actually developing strategies in which they are choosing when to get out of BTC rather than being driven by having had overinvested.. and feeling like they are lacking in cashflow or for lack of preparation, for example (Just to be clear, I am thinking that SamR fits in the lack of confidence category and not the weak hands category, but really I cannot really know financial specifics of guys from various postings on the interwebs).

I think that you also make a decent point about the price of bitcoin last year, and it kind of show that it has taken some time for bitcoin to rise with such exorbitance, even considering the matter in terms of a year - though we could also consider the matter in terms of the price rise from mid August to present, and that would be a rise from $2600-ish to $8200-ish - which seems to be bordering on possibilities of "overheating." Though it seems to me that there are decent odds that we are going to experience a kind of blow off to the upside - before returning to a bear market...... so in that regard, I could be getting a bit too much in a fantasy myself, because perhaps we already experienced our blow off when doing a 3x from $2600 to $8200 - yet part of my problem in considering that 3x to be a blow off is that we had also experienced two sizeable corrections within that 3x.

In mid-september we had a clear and unambigous 40% correction from $4980 to $2970, and then only a couple of weeks ago we had another clear and unambigious 30% correction from $7888 to $5555. So what the fuck more BTC price correction do we need? which two recent and decent corrections cause me to conclude that we continue to have continued fuel and refueling for UP.

I concede that there is no clear answer, and I am still not putting odds of up to be anywhere much north of 65% - at the most... until we reach the next resistance range of $9600 to $13,400ish... if we get into that range, then we better fucking reassess at that time and consider if buy support still seems to exist and also consider how fast and how far we move into the range, that is if we make it there in the near term and before entering a bear market - which is also possible, perhaps below 35%-ish?
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 10:45 PM by JayJuanGee.)
Yesterday 10:42 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Online
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Post: #5584
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 06:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(Yesterday 11:44 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Worth buying Bitcoin now ?


Same advice is true, all the time, and that is that you have to do your own assessment of long term and prepare for price movements in both direction.

If you believe that the asset is a long term good investment, then you should, buy on the way down and sell on the way up, but you don't have any to sell if you have not bought any, yet. So sometimes you have to take a stake.

What does this even mean?


(Yesterday 06:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  First it is funny that you are not already out, based on your previous bearish assessments, and second, hopefully you are not so rash as to sell everything... remember that you have a dollar cost averaging thread?

Do you even DCA? Laugh

I stopped my DCA after my initial cashout. No way in hell am I taking a financial loss on crypto after all the time I put into it.

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Yesterday 10:44 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5585
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 10:44 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(Yesterday 06:58 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(Yesterday 11:44 AM)Constitution45 Wrote:  Worth buying Bitcoin now ?


Same advice is true, all the time, and that is that you have to do your own assessment of long term and prepare for price movements in both direction.

If you believe that the asset is a long term good investment, then you should, buy on the way down and sell on the way up, but you don't have any to sell if you have not bought any, yet. So sometimes you have to take a stake.

What does this even mean?

I have explained my various strategies ad nauseum, and if you want to hear me go through it again, I can, but I think that I said as much as I need to say, at the moment.

Further, if you have no stake at all in bitcoin, your considerations will be different than if you already have taken a stake.

If you consider bitcoin a good long term investment, your considerations are going to be different than if you don't consider it as a good long term investment.



(Yesterday 10:44 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(Yesterday 06:54 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  First it is funny that you are not already out, based on your previous bearish assessments, and second, hopefully you are not so rash as to sell everything... remember that you have a dollar cost averaging thread?

Do you even DCA? Laugh

I stopped my DCA after my initial cashout. No way in hell am I taking a financial loss on crypto after all the time I put into it.

Of course, you can tailor your approach how you feel, and it seems that my philosophy is a bit different from yours, especially when it comes to when to apply dollar cost averaging.. so we are not on the same page regarding how and when to apply dollar cost averaging, and in that regard, you can apply it how you believe is going to work for you and your circumstances.

Mostly I consider DCA a relatively longer term technique to attempt some semblance of "set it and forget it," so in that regard, there is accumulation for the long term, and not any kind of aim to cash out. So in that regard, you don't invest more than you can afford to lose and you tend to have a longer time horizon. Surely, I will concede that it is possible to employ some other form of short-term DCA which is how you seem to consider DCA, at least in respect to bitcoin, and nothing wrong with that because you explained that is what you are doing.
Yesterday 10:53 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Online
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Post: #5586
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Quote:I have explained my various strategies ad nauseum, and if you want to hear me go through it again, I can, but I think that I said as much as I need to say, at the moment.

Further, if you have no stake at all in bitcoin, your considerations will be different than if you already have taken a stake.

If you consider bitcoin a good long term investment, your considerations are going to be different than if you don't consider it as a good long term investment.

A guy asked you for advice on buying BTC, and you told him it depends on whether he thinks buying BTC is a good investment?! How the hell does that help him?

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Yesterday 11:25 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #5587
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 11:25 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
Quote:I have explained my various strategies ad nauseum, and if you want to hear me go through it again, I can, but I think that I said as much as I need to say, at the moment.

Further, if you have no stake at all in bitcoin, your considerations will be different than if you already have taken a stake.

If you consider bitcoin a good long term investment, your considerations are going to be different than if you don't consider it as a good long term investment.

A guy asked you for advice on buying BTC, and you told him it depends on whether he thinks buying BTC is a good investment?! How the hell does that help him?

I guess I don't give advice.

Guys have to decide for themselves if they are going to buy, sell or hodl based on their views of bitcoin, currently, short term and long term.

So in that regard, whenever possible, I attempt to assist guys to come to their own conclusions to figure out their own circumstances by providing various frameworks that I have considered helpful in my own journey and therefore, hopefully, guys will be able to decide for themselves what they are going to do and what works for them and their circumstances.

I don't mind sharing my various personal thinking and my past practices and strategies in that regard, which may be helpful to some guys who may be able to relate, perhaps?

Furthermore, I have frequently suggested that guys consider a 6 month time horizon and to structure their budget accordingly and perhaps divide up their budget, but it would not be very helpful to go through all of that again, if the guy is merely deciding the initial question, which seemed to have been whether or not to buy now, and that is one that he likely has to determine for himself, rather than asking a bunch of quasi-anonymous folks to apply his own finances and life views to bitcoin.
Yesterday 11:40 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Online
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Post: #5588
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(Yesterday 11:40 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I guess I don't give advice.

Then maybe don't post in response to questions when people are asking for advice?

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