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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7576
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 10:19 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  JayJuanGee is a windbag who can't state a coherent idea to save his life, but he is correct.

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02-21-2019 10:23 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7577
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 10:20 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I still think we are in a bear market for the next 5-6 months so shorting isn't a bad idea as even a small percentages of movement can make you a lot of money with 10x leverage. I'm confident the 200 wma will be tested again, therefore shorting isn't a ridiculous idea. Even people with many years of experience trading will tell you it's a good idea to short in the bear market and long in the bull market. We are still in the bear market for many months.

O.k. If you have experience playing around with margin, then you may be able to structure your bet in a reasonable way that prepares your BTC portfolio for either price direction.

I would say that people capable of that level of margin trading is quite a small minority of those who attempt it, so likely is NOT a good idea or a decent practice for the vast majority of RVF guys.

I would suggest that the best strategy is to dollar cost average and to buy on dips.. and keep enough fiat in your BTC portfolio that you are able to buy more if the price goes lower. Of course, each guy is responsible for his own trading behavior, including playing around with fire (aka margin trading) with an asset that can make you a whole hell-of-a lot of money without having to play with margin (at least historically it has, and there seem to be decent chances of similarly good performance in the future - even though not guaranteed.. that's for sure).

Edit: by the way, I agree with you that we are currently in a bear market in regards to BTC, which means that odds for the BTC price going down are greater than odds for up. But, even if the odds for down are 55/45 for example rather than 45/55, which is greater, that still does not make down anywhere close to being certain, even while the odds for down are higher than the odds for up. Of course, each of us will have differing assessments regarding the odds in either BTC price direction at any given point in time, and that is part of what makes this fun and interesting.. not everyone sees the probabilities the same, so we all bet differently and in different ways.... and some guys will be nervous about making any short term bets too.. which tends to be my practice to incorporate a system to that remains largely neutral to the short term and largely presumes that in the long term the price is going up.
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2019 10:37 PM by JayJuanGee.)
02-21-2019 10:30 PM
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[email protected] Offline
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Post: #7578
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
With regards to Quadriga, it seems like most of the crypto has already been liquidated at Bitfinix. According to the research out there it appears Quadriga was a front for Columbian cartel to launder money. The money being stored in a small Polish Bank in a village of 15k people until it was raided by police. The 2 individuals that had accounts had citizenship with Panama and one was a born Canadian named Ivan Manual Molina Lee who was director of Crypto Capital (previously called Havelock investments). I don't understand why they would stash the money in Poland instead of Panama or the 20 other tax haven countries but more is being uncovered everyday. The DOJ is investigating Bitfinix so we'll have to see what happens there.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/22/bi...ed-company
02-21-2019 10:37 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7579
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 10:21 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 10:15 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 09:52 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 08:24 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 08:14 PM)Swordfish1010 Wrote:  Not if you sell it off the chain, I.e. for cash.

You can't sell bitcoin "off the chain". It's on the chain. That's why it's a blockchain.

Lol what? Of course you can. Try not saying incorrect things so authoritatively.

Swordfish: It is a little bit unclear about what you are referring to. There could be some kind of question about whether all of the bitcoin addresses used by QuadrigaCX are accounted for.

There does seem to be some weirdness that was going on in terms of where the bitcoins and other crypto currencies were being held.

If the coins of known addresses begin to move, then there would likely be considerable commotion over that, and I think the same is true with some other watched addresses... for example, there are some GOX hacked addresses in which those coins have never moved - which remains puzzling, just as in this case, if anything could be done to stop or to monitor all the possible ways that someone might be able to cash out and get away with it.

In this case, moving of QuadrigaCX coins would bring some question about whether the owner is really dead and/or whether QuadrigaCX had completely lost access to the coins. Of course, with any scam, they could change their story and suggest that the addresses may have been compromised or hacked.

What I am saying is that he could liquidate "dirty" wallets and transfer ownership of their private keys without any btc moving from A -> B on the ledger. Say give them at a discount since they are shady. Someone could sit on the wallets for 10-20+ years until the heat dies down and then start to tumble them out. I.e. there would be no audit trail to monitor until then.

Actually that is a fair point, and the buyer would have to have a certain level of confidence that s/he actually has received the private keys. There may be ways to accomplish that, and I am not sure.**

And, of course, like you said under such a situation, the buyer would likely be paying a considerable discount because of the many risks, including both the risk that the private keys might not be exclusively transferred and the risk of likely ongoing monitoring of the address(es) that he may have some difficulties moving the coins, even in 10-20 years.

**It actually seems to me that one of the most effective ways that I can rest assured that I have access to the certain already existing addresses (that were previously owned by someone else) is to have received them into a wallet address that I know that I have the private keys. Likely more technical people know better than me, if there might be tricks to assure that the private keys were adequately transferred or newly generated without leaving any access for the previous owner.
02-21-2019 10:47 PM
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Sidney Crosby Offline
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Post: #7580
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 10:37 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  With regards to Quadriga, it seems like most of the crypto has already been liquidated at Bitfinix. According to the research out there it appears Quadriga was a front for Columbian cartel to launder money. The money being stored in a small Polish Bank in a village of 15k people until it was raided by police. The 2 individuals that had accounts had citizenship with Panama and one was a born Canadian named Ivan Manual Molina Lee who was director of Crypto Capital (previously called Havelock investments). I don't understand why they would stash the money in Poland instead of Panama or the 20 other tax haven countries but more is being uncovered everyday. The DOJ is investigating Bitfinix so we'll have to see what happens there.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/22/bi...ed-company

Didn't Quadriga also have hundreds/thousands of crypto wallets as well?
Yesterday 12:10 AM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #7581
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 10:37 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  With regards to Quadriga, it seems like most of the crypto has already been liquidated at Bitfinix. According to the research out there it appears Quadriga was a front for Columbian cartel to launder money. The money being stored in a small Polish Bank in a village of 15k people until it was raided by police. The 2 individuals that had accounts had citizenship with Panama and one was a born Canadian named Ivan Manual Molina Lee who was director of Crypto Capital (previously called Havelock investments). I don't understand why they would stash the money in Poland instead of Panama or the 20 other tax haven countries but more is being uncovered everyday. The DOJ is investigating Bitfinix so we'll have to see what happens there.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/22/bi...ed-company

Quadriga looks like a small part of a much broader criminal network. It would not be surprising if Gerald Cotten is actually dead, and is being used as a scapegoat. SamB is right that it defies logic that someone would try to run with crypto he can't cash out, and potentially a bunch of high net worth individuals and lawyers trying to hunt him down.

Doesn't mean it's impossible, but I don't see any evidence that the money even existed in the first place. Quadriga customers are owed about $190m USD. So far only about $27m has been shown to exist, which was stolen and laundered through ShapeShift, Bitfinex, and Poloniex. This podcast breaks down pretty thoroughly what we know so far (from 5:00 to around 17:00 mark):

Unchained Podcast - Taylor Monahan

Quadriga was headquartered in Vancouver, ground zero for organized crime that laundered billions through real estate and casinos.

What's also interesting is that Tucker Carlson is implicated in this mess:

Quote:Robertson [Gerald Cotten's wife] owns two other properties in her own name, including an island in Mahone Bay the couple purchased in September 2017 from Fox News personality Tucker Carlson for $161,250 — well below the island's tax-assessed value of $349,400.

Very strange. A prominent TV personality just happened to sell one of his homes for half its value to the wife of the CEO of an alleged money laundering front. It's kind of like how Sean Hannity sought the advice of a dope like Michael Cohen, supposedly for his real estate expertise.

Also keep in mind that 86% of BTC volume is crypto-to-crypto, largely USDT, and largely on relatively new exchanges that no one's ever heard of. Only 14% is BTC-to-fiat.

The main risk with something like Tether isn't necessarily the solvency issue. It's regulatory intervention by the US government. I would say that Bitfinex, Tether, and Binance are the three main choke points for the whole market. All three seem to be flouting US law pretty openly. If the US moves against one of them, liquidity could get pretty tight. But it's possible that this whole criminal network is so well-connected that it may be difficult to prosecute these people, so who knows what will happen.
Yesterday 12:18 AM
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Sidney Crosby Offline
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Post: #7582
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Lampwick I don't see how he couldn't cash out a significant amount of BTC.

If someone bought BTC with CAD and kept it on Quadriga who knows where that BTC is or what wallet is in or if he even ever bought the BTC in the first place.
Yesterday 12:21 AM
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Sidney Crosby Offline
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Post: #7583
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
So he writes a will a month before he dies, travels to India for really no reason right in the middle of a huge crisis with Quadriga and then people find out about his death 2 months later?

It is very rare to die from Crohn's disease and if he was sick or had issues do you really think India would be a good place to travel to, for no reason.
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 12:26 AM by Sidney Crosby.)
Yesterday 12:26 AM
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Lampwick Offline
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Post: #7584
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(Yesterday 12:21 AM)Sidney Crosby Wrote:  Lampwick I don't see how he couldn't cash out a significant amount of BTC.

If someone bought BTC with CAD and kept it on Quadriga who knows where that BTC is or what wallet is in or if he even ever bought the BTC in the first place.

The wife's story is that Gerald is dead, and only he knows where the keys are. If Gerald and his wife cooked up this scheme, in order for it to work, she has to be able to point to some cold wallets with a bunch of money trapped in them.

But what the court will turn up eventually, I think, is that the little money that actually existed has been tumbled to shit and converted to assets that are nearly impossible to find or get a judgement against.

Could Gerald have tumbled the money and run? It's possible. But he strikes me as a total cuck who bit off more than he could chew in every aspect of his life (his scheming wife, operating a business over his head, dealing with actual mobsters). Why would they cut a simp like this into the deal when they can just ice him, blame him for everything, and buy time while the courts take forever to dig through the rubble?
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 12:34 AM by Lampwick.)
Yesterday 12:34 AM
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Sidney Crosby Offline
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Post: #7585
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Who knows, maybe they even killed him or forced him to fake his death.
Yesterday 12:44 AM
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Pinocchio Offline
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Post: #7586
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(02-21-2019 08:11 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm starting to second guess myself about the price going below the 200 weekly moving average. I've been taken in by this idea that the price will go down under 3k but according to the history, price has never been under the 200 WMA. Further evidence shows the price has bounced off the 200 WMA (around $3200) about 2-3 times already. Last cycle there was a high of 1147 and a low of 187 which corresponds to a 84% drop. We've already dropped 84% from 20k to 3260. Maybe we've already hit the bottom? I still think shorting is a good idea but maybe the price will not break the 200 wma levels.

I think there's a decent chance the bottom is in. A few of the alts have now turned bullish on their weekly time frames as an early heads up... I've been heavily accumulating BTC between $3.2k and $4.2k.
Yesterday 01:32 AM
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Post: #7587
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(Yesterday 01:32 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 08:11 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm starting to second guess myself about the price going below the 200 weekly moving average. I've been taken in by this idea that the price will go down under 3k but according to the history, price has never been under the 200 WMA. Further evidence shows the price has bounced off the 200 WMA (around $3200) about 2-3 times already. Last cycle there was a high of 1147 and a low of 187 which corresponds to a 84% drop. We've already dropped 84% from 20k to 3260. Maybe we've already hit the bottom? I still think shorting is a good idea but maybe the price will not break the 200 wma levels.

I think there's a decent chance the bottom is in. A few of the alts have now turned bullish on their weekly time frames as an early heads up... I've been heavily accumulating BTC between $3.2k and $4.2k.

Sad for me to say that I would suspect that if any BTC price pump is actually coming from alts "leading" the charge (as you have depicted), then such BTC price pump is NOT on solid grounds.
Yesterday 02:09 AM
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Post: #7588
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Probably true that there was no 190m dollars worth of anything on the exchange. Money was laundered through the exchange and sent off to Kraken, Bitfinix, cex.io etc to liquidate. The yearly volume on Quadrigacx was equivalent to one months worth of volume on bigger exchanges. It wasn't used to make money, just a front end business like a laundromat to clean dirty money. Withdrawals were given in dirty money from outside sources. Clean fiat deposits were exchanged for dirty crypto.

This debacle has brought out a lot of questionable individuals. Mike Patryn/Omar Dhanini (convicted scammer & quadriga shareholder), Christine Duhaime (holds 20k quadriga shares). Tucker Carlson surprised me. Erik Vorhees is rumoured to have an office directly across from Crypto Capital in Panama which can't be just a coincidence. By the end of this a lot of people will be exposed.
Yesterday 02:57 AM
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Post: #7589
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(Yesterday 02:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:32 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 08:11 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm starting to second guess myself about the price going below the 200 weekly moving average. I've been taken in by this idea that the price will go down under 3k but according to the history, price has never been under the 200 WMA. Further evidence shows the price has bounced off the 200 WMA (around $3200) about 2-3 times already. Last cycle there was a high of 1147 and a low of 187 which corresponds to a 84% drop. We've already dropped 84% from 20k to 3260. Maybe we've already hit the bottom? I still think shorting is a good idea but maybe the price will not break the 200 wma levels.

I think there's a decent chance the bottom is in. A few of the alts have now turned bullish on their weekly time frames as an early heads up... I've been heavily accumulating BTC between $3.2k and $4.2k.

Sad for me to say that I would suspect that if any BTC price pump is actually coming from alts "leading" the charge (as you have depicted), then such BTC price pump is NOT on solid grounds.

I don't think alts are going to lead the charge. What I meant was it could be an early indication that this crypto bear market has finally come to end.
Yesterday 03:55 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7590
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(Yesterday 03:55 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  
(Yesterday 02:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:32 AM)Pinocchio Wrote:  
(02-21-2019 08:11 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  I'm starting to second guess myself about the price going below the 200 weekly moving average. I've been taken in by this idea that the price will go down under 3k but according to the history, price has never been under the 200 WMA. Further evidence shows the price has bounced off the 200 WMA (around $3200) about 2-3 times already. Last cycle there was a high of 1147 and a low of 187 which corresponds to a 84% drop. We've already dropped 84% from 20k to 3260. Maybe we've already hit the bottom? I still think shorting is a good idea but maybe the price will not break the 200 wma levels.

I think there's a decent chance the bottom is in. A few of the alts have now turned bullish on their weekly time frames as an early heads up... I've been heavily accumulating BTC between $3.2k and $4.2k.

Sad for me to say that I would suspect that if any BTC price pump is actually coming from alts "leading" the charge (as you have depicted), then such BTC price pump is NOT on solid grounds.

I don't think alts are going to lead the charge. What I meant was it could be an early indication that this crypto bear market has finally come to end.

Fair enough, and I surely don't seem to know anything about how all of this is going to play out - even though i have an ongoing gut feeling that what seems to be a lot of ongoing froth in the altcoin space might be holding back a reversal of the current BTC bear market.

Further, I could not really feel comfortable that BTC is out of the bear market until prices are solidly above $6k, even though there might be some sub $6k scenarios that I might come around to tentatively concluding that BTC is out of the current bear market.

By the way, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the nice little laddering price bumps that we have been seeing in the past couple of weeks. Nice to have a cushion between current price and the mid-December $3,122 bottom (current bottom of this cycle).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 04:33 AM by JayJuanGee.)
Yesterday 04:30 AM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #7591
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Sounds like the Quadriga thing was vastly weirder than I imagined it was.
Great post, Lampwick.

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Yesterday 10:43 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7592
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Below is a link to a nice bullish article from yesterday suggesting that a bull run could be coming in 2019 - yet such a bullrun seems a bit too soon in my thinking and I don't think that the article really makes the case for such a bullrun to happen imminently in 2019 rather than in 2020 or 2021, but at least it gives a decent number (10) of plausible thinking points.


https://www.ccn.com/10-reasons-bitcoin-w...un-in-2019
Yesterday 03:02 PM
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Post: #7593
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
BTC went past 4k. Most likely resistance at 4200-4300 and back down to test 200wma. Happened while I slept. Wish i longed it but there is plenty of opportunity in the way down.
Today 05:08 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #7594
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(Today 05:08 PM)[email protected] Wrote:  BTC went past 4k. Most likely resistance at 4200-4300 and back down to test 200wma. Happened while I slept. Wish i longed it but there is plenty of opportunity in the way down.

Yes...

Like a gambling addict, who prefers to take the more difficult route for the thrill of it.

If you think about investing in bitcoin and bitcoin fundamentals, you have one of the most lopsided upside risks in the history of assets, and you can bet on up with relatively low risk, and become rich. In other words, you do not need to use leverage in order to profit from investing in bitcoin (especially if you are thinking about the long run, rather than the short run).

This is how it works.. you invest whatever you are going to invest, and the most that you can lose is the amount of your investment, if bitcoin were to go to zero, for example before you were able to cash out.

On the other hand, if you play with margin, then you run the risk of losing more than you bet, at least losing all of it faster and on way lower amounts of price movements. In other words, the only meaningful way to make money by betting against bitcoin is to use leverage/margin.

I am glad that I have built a decent amount of money in bitcoin and a great equity cushion in my BTC investment so I feel no inkling of a temptation to gamble in order to make even more money by playing around with gambling and margin trading (even if I agree that the odds for down BTC price movement are currently pretty great and become greater in the mid-$4k price arena).

Currently, in my particular situation, if the BTC price goes down, I look forward to buying some more. At this time, my buy orders start around $3,700... and there are probably better than 50% chances that at least a few of my current buy orders will trigger, but even if they don't trigger, which is also possible, I have plenty of BTC in the event of UP.
(This post was last modified: Today 05:29 PM by JayJuanGee.)
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