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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #8351
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-03-2019 10:04 PM)rpg Wrote:  I think the gyrations of the bitcoin price are built in and not a problem per se. The fact that so much selling was going on last week and the price didnt drop too far is a plus. I am buying the dips every month. Hopefully we hit 15K by year end.

Price volatility in BTC is one of the most guaranteed of things to happen.

Price direction is another question, but I think that there are decent odds for hitting $15k or higher BTC prices by the end of the year.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but it is hard to think of any better investments, currently, for the upcoming couple of years.. even while there can be too much pretentiousness to attempt to count your chickens before they hatch... but if you are already close to reaching your BTC targets and just continuing to dollar cost average with an amount that is reasonable and prudent for yourself, you do seem to have decent chances of increasing the value of your holdings in the coming years.

Here's an interesting chart for BTC prices in the past several years on September 3,

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2...sL-ZMBn1qg]


And, the price on September 3, 2010 was about 7.5 cents.

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUS...10zm2g25zv
09-03-2019 10:17 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-02-2019 08:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-02-2019 06:33 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-02-2019 05:16 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Heart will be lucky if he does not get thrown in jail with his various self-serving, narcissistic and emotion-laden shenanigans.

Don't take this the wrong way, but you seem way too psychologically invested in Bitcoin. It's why I haven't bothered to respond much. I've noticed when people get emotionally and ideologically attached to an investment, rational thinking goes out the window.

Well, you can believe or conclude whatever you like, It is your choice, but does not necessarily mean that you are on track with your assertions.

.........[edited out].........


The below-linked image captures an alternative response that I could have made to jeffreyjerpp:

https://imgflip.com/i/39nm8i

[Image: 39nm8i.jpg]

Laugh
09-04-2019 04:48 PM
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Nolimitz Offline
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Post: #8353
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20...fecf3a3deb

i enjoy reading Clem Chambers (Forbes writer)

He has made some great calls on btc. Also knowledgeable on macro/markets.

Called the bottom earlier this year.
09-04-2019 08:55 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-04-2019 08:55 PM)Nolimitz Wrote:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20...fecf3a3deb

i enjoy reading Clem Chambers (Forbes writer)

He has made some great calls on btc. Also knowledgeable on macro/markets.

Called the bottom earlier this year.

I am not necessarily impressed with that article and I am not otherwise familiar with Chambers as any kind of knowledgeable bitcoin analyst. I doubt that there is anything close to a soothsayer, especially when it comes to mainstream commentators, even if those commentators might have some background in financial analysis and able to look at various price performances and to describe some of the price dynamics.

Chambers seems to be attempting to make some attempts at correlating bitcoin to trade wars or recent stock market performance and to gold, which is largely making various attempts to place bitcoin somewhere within existing macromarket conditions, yet he does not mention any meaningful bitcoin fundamentals, history nor the seeming ongoing purging of shitcoins, nor such important happenings in bitcoin such as the upcoming halvening nor the various network effects or tie any of bitcoin into sound money, which causes me to speculate that he is largely just shooting in the dark when it comes to his attempts at bitcoin analysis and maybe even some lack of understanding that bitcoin may be an asset that currently is in an adoptions phase and could be uncorrelated to some of the macrodynamics that he is describing (the jury is still out regarding the extent of bitcoin's correlation, if any).
09-04-2019 09:36 PM
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Giacomo Casanova Away
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Quote:Among many things that affect crypto prices, these stand out recently:
a. As parts of globe slide into recession, short-term speculators tend to sell. Affects Bitcoin but affects alts more.
b. Recessions increase financial risks, causing moves into deeply safe Bitcoin & Monero.

https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/11...7318242304

What's the take of bitcoin maximalists like JJG on Monero?
This statement from Nick Szabo is quite strong.
09-07-2019 04:44 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-07-2019 04:44 AM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  
Quote:Among many things that affect crypto prices, these stand out recently:
a. As parts of globe slide into recession, short-term speculators tend to sell. Affects Bitcoin but affects alts more.
b. Recessions increase financial risks, causing moves into deeply safe Bitcoin & Monero.

https://twitter.com/NickSzabo4/status/11...7318242304

What's the take of bitcoin maximalists like JJG on Monero?
This statement from Nick Szabo is quite strong.

Yes, Giacomo, I recognize the seeming tension in Szabo's statement that seems to be supportive of Monero, while someone like Szabo is both considered to be a bitcoin maximalist and perhaps either influential in the creation of bitcoin and has even been relatively credibly asserted to have been satoshi or on team satoshi in the creation of bitcoin.

Maybe the statement from Szabo shows that any of the people in bitcoin can either end up going down a shitcoin route or be seen to be giving too much attention to some shitcoins, such as monero.

Of course, in terms of this thread there are a few questions at play, and 1) one is a question of the extent to which getting into the weeds about Monero is potentially a slippery slope that we don't want to go down, meaning the extent to which such other project is really related to bitcoin, 2) another question would be how much credibility to give to recommendations from folks who are thought to be bitcoin maximalists and 3) a third question would be deciding for oneself how much to invest in other coins, whether monero or other shitcoins.

Maybe you are mostly just asking about the third aspect? And, in order to not make my response too long, I will respond to that portion?

I have responded to this idea previously, and my perspective about diversification remains that when a guy attempts to diversify his investment, he should be attempting to diversify amongst different asset classes, and frequently there is NOT much of a need to diversify within the asset class. Of course, my investment strategy is to attempt to invest largely long term, and so if in 3-10 years if I woke out of a coma would I generally still feel comfortable having had invested in my investment... or the longer term choices and confidence that I have in my investments as a class.

Of course, guys can invest shorter term, also, but I doubt that Szabo's statement is suggesting Monero as a short term investment and suggesting that it's value comes from long term potential. Anyhow, personally, within crypto, I don't consider that Monero is really diversifying much away from bitcoin, and the main risk is in bitcoin. Therefore, if bitcoin succeeds, then it provides an ability for a multi-tude of other cryptos to have pump potential and also perhaps to succeed longer than merely as a pump vehicle.

I personally hold some monero, but it is value is less than .5% of the value of my bitcoin value. I believe that all of my shitcoins combined are at less than 1% of mystery bitcoin value, and there has been some fluctuation from time to time that may have brought them up to 2% - but in any event, I really don't pay too much attention to those shitcoin holdings that have been mostly losing value in comparison to bitcoin.. and even moreso in the past 6 months.

I understand other guys might come to differing conclusions than me regarding how much percentage to put in some of these shit coin projects, and I understand up to 10% might be prudent. I believe that 20% would be a stretch and I recall in 2017 some guys were either not putting any into bitcoin or they were reversing what I would have had considered to be prudent. Likely those guys made money in the 2017 pump, but lost their asses off, if they did not get out of that crap as the bottom was falling out.

I understand other guys believe that such dropping in other coins compared to bitcoin illustrates a possible situation in which the other coins might be undervalued
as compared to bitcoin, which seems to presume that there is going to be another altcoin season, which might or might not happen, and there could even be another decently large amount of bleeding in altcoins before a possible season comes, assuming that such alt season has decent chances of coming.

I say given all of the uncertainty, and the hope for a pumpening of other coins, then why the fuck waste your time on diversifying into other coins when you are just adding risk upon risk, and you might even be presuming with some unit bias that altcoins have potential to pump higher than bitcoin.. which is also presuming an altcoin season is either inevitable or likely, which even though it might have decent chances of happening, it is far from guaranteed.

Of course, there could be some special knowledge investing, such perhaps with Monero, but getting into those weeds seems to be a topic for another thread, no? I personally give less than two shits about Monero, even if Szabo or maybe even others are preparing to pump it, just like I was completely happy when my BTC value went up nearly 78x between 2015 and 2017, while some other guys were bragging that their shitcoins were going up more. I was not interested in taking on such additional risk.

Whether bitcoin is going to pump 20%, 2x 5x or 10x again, I remain happy with bitcoin as an investment vehicle while considering both its upside and downside potential as compared with other projects, and surely no other project is offering what bitcoin is offering, including monero, which seems to be a misleading false equivalency statement from Szabo, especially if you also account for the ongoing building and development of bitcoin's network effect, too.
09-08-2019 05:16 PM
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Nolimitz Offline
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Post: #8357
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20...726d122685

Latest article from Clem daddy

“Bitcoin on cusp”
09-08-2019 07:07 PM
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jeffreyjerpp Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-08-2019 07:07 PM)Nolimitz Wrote:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/20...726d122685

Latest article from Clem daddy

“Bitcoin on cusp”

BTC has a major problem for the next 36 months. Namely, the Dollar is already strengthening vs. all major other currencies, and will continue to do so in an accelerating fashion.

Which leaves every other currency, BTC included, in a potentially tough spot.

FWIW, Peter Brandt, who has a remarkable track record, put out the following illustration of BTC a few days ago, classifying the current pattern as a descending triangle:

"Bitcoin meets the definition of a descending triangle. Don't let newbie chartists tell you different. Right-angled triangles imply (but do not demand) a resolution thru the horizontal boundary. $BTC"
[Image: ED4FgR2XkAY6RjO?format=jpg&name=small]

What's interesting to me is the possibility of a break down from the triangle, into strong support at $8500 or so. That could make for a solid buying opportunity, depending on how stiff the downward resistance is.

If we blow through $8500 on the downside, then yikes.
09-09-2019 09:09 AM
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Post: #8359
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
Peter Brandt has been wrong most of the time but when he is right he wins big. I agree everyone is seeing a descending triangle so more likely than not there's a drop. Probably to 7200-8500, I doubt less than this because of upcoming halvening and other bullish news.

USD is getting stronger so the US will try to debase their currency to "win" the trade war.

To me everything is lining up so that money will be flowing into Bitcoin. A lot of assets are losing their luster. Housing is deflating because of stagnating wages, stock market crash looks like it's on the near horizon. The bond market is yielding negative rates. Central banks are looking towards negative interest rates and further debasement of fiat currency. All that's left is gold and Bitcoin. We are still in an everything bubble and Bitcoin is one of the few assets that hasn't been seriously looked at yet.
09-09-2019 09:49 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  BTC has a major problem for the next 36 months.

That is a real strange statement, jefffey, which causes me to speculate that you don't really understand what the fuck is bitcoin. And sure, you attempt to justify your statement through the rest of your post, but you engage in a kind of process of justification that seems to attempt to correlate bitcoin too much to other assets and even to broader market performance. Sure, there might be some circumstances in which bitcoin is going to correlate more and more to broader market trends and to other assets because there is some inevitability that value frequently is flowing from one class of asset or from currency to other classes.

Just like a lot of mainstream pundits and supposed expert financial analysts, you seem to fail or refuse to really get into actual BTC fundamentals in order to really understand what is going on with bitcoins likely shorter term price performance dynamics, and two of the important shorter term bitcoin factors that have largely already been mentioned in Burner's responding post: 1) bitcoin is a new asset class establishing a place that remains in a kind of experiment phase in terms of figuring out how the market is going to get used to it, which is likely bullish for bitcoin in the short term with such an ongoing low level of adoption with a lot of money that can come into bitcoin, which is like a drop in the bucket to some of those other more mature asset classes and 2) the upcoming halvening that surely can have effects on BTC's price in the short term due to supply pressures which causes some folks to believe that they understand what will happen, but don't actually realize the price pressures that will happen until those price pressures actually start happening and can even last in the next couple years in the upwards direction (nothing more need be said.. if you cannot fucking figure that part out).

(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  Namely, the Dollar is already strengthening vs. all major other currencies, and will continue to do so in an accelerating fashion.

To the extent that Burner may not have already addressed this, bitcoin is not just a currency - otherwise like burner mentioned there are also ongoing attempts, that might be successful, that actually either weaken the dollar or cause the dollar to not continue in a strengthening trend.

(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  Which leaves every other currency, BTC included, in a potentially tough spot.

Again.. a problem in which you are talking about "other currencies" and including bitcoin in that.

Maybe you are not actually referring to other crypto currencies (aka shitcoins, aka altcoins), but there is a whole other dynamic going on in bitcoin that has to do with other crypto "currencies," currently, that may or may not last, which seems to be the ongoing purging of excess froth from them.

It is difficult to know how long or whether that purging of froth is going to continue, but just like bitcoin should not be considered as just "another currency" in terms of fiat, it surely is not merely "another crypto" in the crypto space, neither. So, do you really have any kind of grasp on those various subtleties that actually affect BTC price dynamics? No simple explanation that is for sure, but still seems like bitcoin price pressures remain more UP than they do DOWN, or even flat.

(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  FWIW, Peter Brandt, who has a remarkable track record,

Burner already addressed the point that Brandt has a questionable track record, at best, and surely if you are putting out many predictions, like Brandt does, sometimes guys like him are going to end up being correct. So fucking what? We should not be putting too much weight into proclamations of wanna be sorcerers, which frequently is what seems to happen when guys rely too much on charts and chartists.

(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  put out the following illustration of BTC a few days ago, classifying the current pattern as a descending triangle:

"Bitcoin meets the definition of a descending triangle. Don't let newbie chartists tell you different. Right-angled triangles imply (but do not demand) a resolution thru the horizontal boundary. $BTC"
[]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ED4FgR2XkAY6RjO?format=jpg&name=small[/img]

I am not going to say that charts do not matter at all, but they are merely one factor that help to visualize price dynamics that can be considered, in terms of price pressures and even break out direction(s) that may or may not end up playing out in the direction that the chart seems to describe as most-likely.

(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  What's interesting to me is the possibility of a break down from the triangle, into strong support at $8500 or so. That could make for a solid buying opportunity, depending on how stiff the downward resistance is.

Yes... so far our BTC trading range in this most recent price correction (since late the late June top of $13,880) has not broken below $9k, so $8,500 is surely within reach if BTC prices get even close to $9k. Seems like normal market movement to me.


(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  If we blow through $8500 on the downside, then yikes.

Sure, it is less likely that there would be a break below $8,500 (as compared with breaking $9k), but I doubt that we are even close to being out of our current BTC bull market unless BTC prices are sustained below $6k for a significant period of time.

So, really, I question any assertions about upcoming bitcoin calamity or pending doom and gloom for bitcoin that might inspire some guys to either not buy BTC or to wait for BTC price dips that never end up materializing.

Again, even if these might not seem like normal market movements in the regular world, we clearly had an outrageous BTC price surge between April and June, which was 3.5x, so there should not be any major shock if there are BTC price corrections that go down 50% and even more from the $13,880 top, but that still does not discount the ongoing upwards price pressures that exist in bitcoin too, that might even cause situations that we never see 4 digits ever, ever again, and then what guys like you going to do when either waiting for a dip below $9k or lower may have not adequately prepared for up?

Surely there is a need to prepare for either BTC price direction and make sure you are sufficiently stocked up with BTC in case prices go up. It is quite historically known (or should be by now) that bitcoin can go on a punishing streak in either price direction, and you would not want to be caught without a sufficient amount of BTC in case BTC prices break up rather than down.. and surely, also, there are a lot of "experts" out there who have been predicting doom and gloom for bitcoin for years and years and years, which has talked some people out of bitcoins and caused others to hesitate too much before taking a meaningful bitcoin stake.
09-09-2019 11:08 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
09-09-2019 01:48 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-09-2019 11:08 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  BTC has a major problem for the next 36 months.

That is a real strange statement, jefffey, which causes me to speculate that you don't really understand what the fuck is bitcoin.

Fair enough- where do you expect BTC price to be at the end of the year, and why?

We'll be into December in a dozen weeks, and an accurate forecast can showcase your depth of understanding, and permanently silence skeptically oriented people like myself.

Heck, if the case is really compelling, I will probably begin to re-accumulate!
09-09-2019 02:51 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-09-2019 02:51 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 11:08 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 09:09 AM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  BTC has a major problem for the next 36 months.

That is a real strange statement, jefffey, which causes me to speculate that you don't really understand what the fuck is bitcoin.

Fair enough- where do you expect BTC price to be at the end of the year, and why?

I don't really make BTC price predictions, especially on the short term beyond maybe suggesting some of the price dynamics. I do get some pleasure out of criticizing the BTC price predictions or others especially when the seem to including strong probabilities that border on certainty or they are based on simplified explanations that fail to account for important fundamentals or emphasize seemingly non-important factors.

I will concede that I tend to be more critical of bearish BTC scenarios than I am of bullish predictions, and I suppose that part of the reason is that such bearish scenarios might dissuade guys from establishing a BTC accumulation strategy and starting some kind of informed action. Furthermore, trolls, shills and bitcoin naysayers, tend to gravitate more towards bear scenarios, and they have largely been wrong, especially if you zoom out a bit and are playing the longer term game.

Of course, any guy can make short-term plays here and there and make some money in that kind of short term process, but that is not the game that I am personally interested in, especially when it comes to BTC, so I tend to be a bit critical of guys who seem to be advocating that kind of an approach to BTC, even though sometimes they might be right or able to short term profit by playing that kind of game.

For the past nearly 6 years that I have been in bitcoin, I have considered BTC to be a good long term investment and something that guys should accumulate and include in their holdings, and accordingly to attempt to accumulate and allocate anywhere between 1% and 10% of their investment value in BTC.

Of course, if a guy is more bullish then he would invest towards the higher end of the range, and if he is less bullish then towards the lower end of the range, which like I said should be a minimum of 1% into BTC. At the same time, guys should do whatever they believe is good for them and their own circumstances, so even though I am considering that 1% to 10% is a good investment amount for BTC, guys might conclude outside of that range too.




(09-09-2019 02:51 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  We'll be into December in a dozen weeks, and an accurate forecast can showcase your depth of understanding

Again, I could give any shits, about attempting to make short term forecasts or playing that game.

I will concede that a guy's decisions about what to do might be different whether he is in a BTC accumulation status or if he is more in a maintenance status. So, maybe if a guy has already achieved what he considers to be a good BTC accumulation status, then he might go more into a maintenance status. Thereafter, maybe he could play around with part of his stash in an attempt to predict short term BTC price direction.. perhaps?

My own personal approach has been to sell if the BTC price goes up and to buy if the price goes down, but I really did not engage in any selling until after I had reached my accumulation goal, which was in the 10% arena. So, it took me almost a year to reach my BTC accumulation goal from late 2013 to late 2014, but even then I was too nervous to sell BTC until late 2015, so any time that I did sell BTC between about late 2013 and late 2015, I would replace them within a day or two.

Currently, I am more or less comfortably in my system that sells if the BTC price goes up and buys back as the BTC price goes down. I consider the selling of BTC to be a kind of insurance in case the price goes down. At some point later, perhaps in the next 2-3 years, I will enter more into a kind of liquidation phase, which would be to sell about 1% of my BTC per quarter, no matter the price, as long as the price is above $5k, which I consider to be quite likely.

By the way, in the longer term, I expect BTC prices to be higher than they are today and even for BTC to perform well as a long term investment, and to at least deliver 6% or greater annualized returns per year, which is better than can be said for a lot of traditional investments, including index funds. Sure, of course, we also have the halvening coming up, and there remains decent likelihood that long term investments could return at similar levels as they had in the past, including 20% price appreciations or even streaks of 2x, 3x, 5x , 20x or even 78x, like we experienced between our 2015 base price of about $250 and our $19,666 price in December 2017.

(09-09-2019 02:51 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  , and permanently silence skeptically oriented people like myself.

Sure, you have rights to be skeptical, but I don't really need to silence you. You should figure out some kind of reasonable plan that works for you to accumulate BTC. Dollar cost averaging tends to be a real good plan, but if you are just itching with a stack of money that you are ambivalent about then you might want to divide your stack into 3 parts. One part, invest right away, 2nd part dollar cost average over the next 6 months while you study the space and 3rd part schedule (or set buy orders) to buy BTC on dips.

Of course, the amount that you set aside or the timeline that you establish would be one of your own choosing, and can help you to study the space while you are getting some kind of meaningful stake that is likely not going to break the bank, if matters go belly up. There surely are no guarantees in the bitcoin space, even if bitcoin seems to be one of those very strong asymmetric bets, that is if you recognize the upside potential (that may or may not play out).

(09-09-2019 02:51 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  Heck, if the case is really compelling, I will probably begin to re-accumulate!

Sure, that is up to you. Can be dangerous to attempt to time the market and get screwed. We have seen a lot of that in the past, and I expect bitcoin to have a lot more of those periods into the future. One of the BIGGEST guarantees in bitcoin remains its volatility, so if you can figure out a way to both accumulate bitcoin and to profit from what seems to be nearly inevitable volatility without gambling too much on the price direction, then you are likely to improve your wealth position quite dearly by paying attention to bitcoin and acting upon your knowledge about bitcoin.
09-09-2019 03:32 PM
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RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-09-2019 03:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  At some point later, perhaps in the next 2-3 years, I will enter more into a kind of liquidation phase, which would be to sell about 1% of my BTC per quarter, no matter the price, as long as the price is above $5k, which I consider to be quite likely.

By the way, in the longer term, I expect BTC prices to be higher than they are today and even for BTC to perform well as a long term investment, and to at least deliver 6% or greater annualized returns per year, which is better than can be said for a lot of traditional investments, including index funds.

So you say that BTC will go up in price, and perform well as a long term investment. Yet your actual long term plan involves....selling BTC?

While recommending that everyone else needs to buy, and zealously criticizing anyone skeptical of buying in at this point?

And you also have insight into "important fundamentals", which despite their importance, leave you without any reliable insights into price movements? Why is that?

If they don't have any predictive value, then how important are these nebulous "fundamentals" you mention, really?

A fascinating outlook, to say the least.

Here is Peter Brandt's opinion on the state of BTC markets, which I enjoyed thoroughly. Anyone following the thread can compare, and see who has better and more actionable advice.

bitcoin.live/video/peter-brandts-crypto-update-september-5-2019-edition
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2019 08:33 PM by jeffreyjerpp.)
09-09-2019 08:19 PM
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Post: #8365
RE: The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  
(09-09-2019 03:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  At some point later, perhaps in the next 2-3 years, I will enter more into a kind of liquidation phase, which would be to sell about 1% of my BTC per quarter, no matter the price, as long as the price is above $5k, which I consider to be quite likely.

By the way, in the longer term, I expect BTC prices to be higher than they are today and even for BTC to perform well as a long term investment, and to at least deliver 6% or greater annualized returns per year, which is better than can be said for a lot of traditional investments, including index funds.

So you say that BTC will go up in price, and perform well as a long term investment. Yet your actual long term plan involves....selling BTC?

You come off as hostile, and wanting to skew matters however you would like.

I could give two shits if you or any other skeptic decides to buy bitcoin or waits until the price is $100k. That is up to you. You can read my motives in all kinds of shady ways, and ignore bitcoin's upside potential.

I am not sure if I need to explain my situation any more than I already have, but I had gotten into bitcoin after nearly 30 years of already investing and building various finances, and so far I have been in bitcoin for nearly 6 years. I think that I said that I would start liquidating soon, and if you are anyone else wants to know what I mean by that then I can, perhaps explain a little bit. I actually doubt that you are interested in actual particulars because you are trying to see a scam or a ponzi scheme or some other bullshit that you have been led to believe by mainstream no matter what I say.

Anyhow, cashing out comes after maintenance which comes after accumulation. Of course, none of them are going to exist in any kind of pure form, but like I mentioned earlier I had gone through my essential accumulation phase in 2014, and I started to transition into maintenance in 2015 and 2016. Of course by the time that I started to sell bitcoin with my accumulated proceeds and develop that system, my strategy had gone more towards maintenance than accumulation. So, like I said at some point I will transition into a kind of maintenance liquidation that involves cashing out 1% per quarter so long as the BTC price is above $5k, which seems quite easy to accomplish. Of course, if I believe that I might be closer to death, then at that point I would like to be able to transition into cashing out higher percentages that would likely then diminish my principle (whereas, in theory a 1% per quarter cashing out, should not diminish principle).


(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  While recommending that everyone else needs to buy,
I have been consistently saying the same thing when the price was $250 and currently and even when the price was $19,666. I said that guys need to create a plan, and to figure out where they are at 1% or 10% or some other level, and they should use bitcoin as a hedge. Of course, when the bitcoin price is high, then the short term likelihood for a dip becomes a lot greater and it can take quite a bit of time to recover for the bitcoin bought at those higher prices. On the other hand, there are quite a few resources that show that if guys had gotten into some kind of dollar cost averaging (such as $100 per week) and even started at the top, currently he would be in profits.

(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  and zealously criticizing anyone skeptical of buying in at this point?

You seem to be purposefully misreading me. I might be more zealously criticizing guys who spout out theories of certainty regarding short term price movement rather than criticizing guys who are not buying. You and other guys can buy if you want. That is your choice.

Currently, there are probably quite less than 1% of the world population that has any kind of significant investment into bitcoin, so you can wait around if you like. Network effects and even Metcalfe's law can provide all kinds of exponential growth from just small amounts of entrances into the space. There are a decent number of financial institutions treating this matter way the fuck more serious than many of us even dreamed in 2013 time frame, so a lot of the developments are coming to fruition... you can sit on the sidelines if you want, or even have resentment about guys like me and even spout out your negative views, but I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about what you or I think or even other guys on this forum.

(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  And you also have insight into "important fundamentals", which despite their importance, leave you without any reliable insights into price movements? Why is that?

It seems that I already answered this, and you seem to be merely engaging in argumentative behavior and wanting to turn this discussion into something about me. You need some kind of bitcoin expert or sorcerer to help you? I believe that I tried to give you some help in my last response, and also to suggest that you can study the bitcoin matter while you are investing into it. I suppose that I am suggesting similar things to what I did, and I am doing quite well with my bitcoin investment. I personally believe that the fundamentals of bitcoin are just as strong, if not stronger than when I got into bitcoin, but if you are not ready, willing or able to look into the matter, then that is more about you than about any one else.

(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  If they don't have any predictive value, then how important are these nebulous "fundamentals" you mention, really?

Perhaps if you attempt to read up on bitcoin and understand what it is offering, then you might be able to understand why it continues to have great appreciation potential. I have provided a decent number of resources in this thread through the years, and there are other locations that you can get reliable information too.

Below is a link to a good beginner or starter thread that has a lot of beginner resources. It's called "5 Resources to teach Average Joe about Bitcoin". Of course, there are other areas that you can learn to, in the event that you want to learn about bitcoin rather than just spouting off about why I cannot tell you which way the BTC price is going to go.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg51545936

(09-09-2019 08:19 PM)jeffreyjerpp Wrote:  A fascinating outlook, to say the least.

Here is Peter Brandt's opinion on the state of BTC markets, which I enjoyed thoroughly. Anyone following the thread can compare, and see who has better and more actionable advice.

bitcoin.live/video/peter-brandts-crypto-update-september-5-2019-edition

Ok. Follow Peter if that makes you feel good. Certainly, I am not trying to either give advice or take advice. I consider my role in this thread as a fellow brainstormer, and surely from time to time, great information is provided that will help you to help yourself rather than counting on a sorcerer to hold your hand. Seems to me that Brandt has been wrong quite a bit too, but I don't follow the guy so, go figure.
09-09-2019 10:02 PM
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