Post: #826

"As of this morning it looks like party is over."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013...e-the-dust

Post: #827

Top comment on one article:

"This would be pretty tragic if you could die from jumping out the window of your mom's basement."

I'm still long BC and think this is a good entry point, but that's pretty hilarious.

Post: #828

Some thoughts on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, which I'll probably flesh out more in an upcoming post...

1) The best way to think of BC is like a credit union for nerds. Silicon Valley geeks with a libertarian/neo-reactionary ideological bent getting together and creating a store of value that they all agree to honour today and in the future. As long as all of the bitcoin geeks continue to store a portion of their savings in BC, it will hold its value and function as a way for nerds to protect their savings from inflation and artificial bubbles.

2) Bitcoin is a good idea. It is a secure and elegant technological solution to a very old political problem - the ability of strong governments to impose currency debasement on its population - and all of the common arguments against it are complete BS. Deflationary, too volatile, no intrinsic value... I don't think anyone on this board is naive enough to take arguments by economists like Paul Krugman at face value, but I'm willing to go into more detail on these points if necessary.

3) There is a critical mass of nerds (I'm one of them) who are 100% sold on bitcoin, who will continue to hold and use bitcoins regardless of price swings, and who will continue to believe in the necessity of bitcoin as a replacement for fiat money. The creator(s) and early investors in BC make fall into this camp, and they will not sell.

4) If and when Bitcoin is destroyed, it will be by a concerted effort from large governments to criminalize it and impose severe penalties on any holdouts. This might work, or it might not. Bitcoin bulls say it would be impossible for governments to crack down on bitcoin, due to its anonymous and decentralized nature, but I think those bulls fail to appreciate how far the US government and others would be willing to go to stamp out an existential threat.

So, final analysis - one bitcoin = 30% chance of making you rich, 30% chance you will die in a gulag, 40% chance you will lose your private key and hate yourself for the rest of your life.

In the short term I think that bad news for bitcoin (i.e., today) is long-term good for it, because it demonstrates bitcoin's resiliency/anti-fragility.

Post: #829

Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

Post: #830

(12-18-2013 12:13 PM)jimmypa Wrote:  "As of this morning it looks like party is over."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013...e-the-dust

I read the same thing and I could see the US discouraging it because it can "be used to transport terrorist funds"

Post: #831

This is good news. The bubble needed to pop to make the currency more stable. If it is going to be a currency, it should be a stable store of value and not a source of speculation. Also, why is it a surprise that governments are against something that will take away their monopoly to create money? Bitcoin is that best thing that has come along and will survive because all of the alternatives are bleak.

Post: #832

(12-18-2013 01:16 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

The Chinese are a tricky bunch.

The problem for the Chinese who haven't cashed out is pretty gruesome: When do you stop pumping and finally cash out??? Someone is going to drive the price to zero on BTC China and get left holding the bag. It is just a question on when this happens.

As for the price on the non-Chinese exchanges when this happens, I'm guessing $200-$300.

Post: #833

(12-18-2013 02:04 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 01:16 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

The Chinese are a tricky bunch.

The problem for the Chinese who haven't cashed out is pretty gruesome: When do you stop pumping and finally cash out??? Someone is going to drive the price to zero on BTC China and get left holding the bag. It is just a question on when this happens.

As for the price on the non-Chinese exchanges when this happens, I'm guessing $200-$300.

Ultimately, it looks like we are in for a lot of BTC volatility in the coming weeks, and when the price was plunging last night, it was difficult to realize that $390 was going to be the bottom for the night. But if we are dropping back in the $300s territory then there are opportunities to make a killin or to lose a killin, if a guy times the up and downs badly.

BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

Post: #834

(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

Hey dude

If you're long term bullish on BTC then the choice is clear - buy now, don't try to figure out the bottom. You've been talking a lot about your long term predictions and kept saying you were hoping the price would be cut in half, because with DCA you'd be able to buy in at a significantly lower price. If you really believe that, just go ahead and buy. If you want to play the ups and downs, don't buy, listen to el mech and go in when he does.

Post: #835

(12-18-2013 02:49 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

Hey dude

If you're long term bullish on BTC then the choice is clear - buy now, don't try to figure out the bottom. You've been talking a lot about your long term predictions and kept saying you were hoping the price would be cut in half, because with DCA you'd be able to buy in at a significantly lower price. If you really believe that, just go ahead and buy. If you want to play the ups and downs, don't buy, listen to el mech and go in when he does.

Portofmanteau:

As you may possibly already know, since I started investing in BTC (nearly 4 weeks now), I've been buying every day (except the first week when my Coinbase account was locked up). I've already described my methodology, as you seem to be aware of such.

If I had followed your suggestion about the clearly buy now based strictly on my bullish sentiment, then I would NOT have any money left b/c I would have bought all in at $1,200 (would not have been a good position to be in), and anyhow, as you seem to know, I am NOT investing in that kind of a way (which I have explained).

You seem to be purposefully simplifying about what I should do just to be argumentative or critical, b/c in some sense you seem to be suggesting that it does NOT matter whether I buy at $500 or $300, which we all seem to realize that buy in price does matter.

Also, I wasn't really asking about how I should invest at this particular moment, but attempting to find out whether guys have additional input concerning where they anticipate the market to be going.

Regarding El Mech's method, at this point, he seems to be investing with profits that he already made, and NOT adding to his investment on any regular basis; therefore, in part, El Mech and I are investing differently based on when we started to get into BTC.

Hopefully that makes sense.

What are you doing, exactly? Are you in or NOT and if you are in what method have you been following? is it working out for you?

Post: #836

(12-18-2013 01:16 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

El Mech:

It looks like about this time of the day the Chinese are waking up, and accordingly, do you sense any increase in the BTC traffic from china at that point... so then we may anticipate some market moves around the times that they are awake...?

The pattern that I have been noticing is that price drops had been occurring more at the end of their business day and in their evenings.... maybe they are more active in selling in their evenings?

On the other hand, maybe there is NO real pattern... since this BTC is being traded 24/7.

Post: #837

(12-18-2013 04:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 01:16 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

El Mech:

It looks like about this time of the day the Chinese are waking up, and accordingly, do you sense any increase in the BTC traffic from china at that point... so then we may anticipate some market moves around the times that they are awake...?

The pattern that I have been noticing is that price drops had been occurring more at the end of their business day and in their evenings.... maybe they are more active in selling in their evenings?

On the other hand, maybe there is NO real pattern... since this BTC is being traded 24/7.

I can't figure them out right now but trying like hell.

What would help me is if someone knew exactly how Fiatleak works.

Post: #838

(12-18-2013 03:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 02:49 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

Hey dude

If you're long term bullish on BTC then the choice is clear - buy now, don't try to figure out the bottom. You've been talking a lot about your long term predictions and kept saying you were hoping the price would be cut in half, because with DCA you'd be able to buy in at a significantly lower price. If you really believe that, just go ahead and buy. If you want to play the ups and downs, don't buy, listen to el mech and go in when he does.

Portofmanteau:

As you may possibly already know, since I started investing in BTC (nearly 4 weeks now), I've been buying every day (except the first week when my Coinbase account was locked up). I've already described my methodology, as you seem to be aware of such.

If I had followed your suggestion about the clearly buy now based strictly on my bullish sentiment, then I would NOT have any money left b/c I would have bought all in at $1,200 (would not have been a good position to be in), and anyhow, as you seem to know, I am NOT investing in that kind of a way (which I have explained).

He was telling you DCA... not to go all in. Do you know what DCA means? I know I sound like an ass by asking that but you seemed to misinterpret his message.

Post: #839

Problem China: Math does not add up at all. They're pinging 45+btcs on Fiatleak, volume is flat, price is rising, they pump and dump all night, lose their asses while awake, .05 sale raises their price after a 35btc sell off..etc etc..

Post: #840

I wonder if the black market has anything to do with the rise and fall of the bitcoin. There's been some serious turmoil on the various black market sites recently. One of them shut down and took off with about 20000 in user bitcoins to cash out big. Silk Road is back but is shutting down for the holidays. Everyone on there is presumably cashing out to avoid the bitcoin fluctuations... not sure but it could have something to do with it.

Post: #841

(12-18-2013 05:14 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 04:24 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 01:16 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Chinese..very unpredictable right now and we're all following them. I'm still holding but could have made a fortune today.

El Mech:

It looks like about this time of the day the Chinese are waking up, and accordingly, do you sense any increase in the BTC traffic from china at that point... so then we may anticipate some market moves around the times that they are awake...?

The pattern that I have been noticing is that price drops had been occurring more at the end of their business day and in their evenings.... maybe they are more active in selling in their evenings?

On the other hand, maybe there is NO real pattern... since this BTC is being traded 24/7.

I can't figure them out right now but trying like hell.

What would help me is if someone knew exactly how Fiatleak works.

Even though fiatleaks seems to be gathering its data from several sources:

Quote: Data from MT.GOX, BITSTAMP, BTCChina, BTC-E, Bit2c, Mercado Bitcoin BR, Local Bitcoins, OKCoin, BTCTrade

Based on your description(s) of data coming in and the price changes you see in response, something seems incomplete... like maybe the timing of some of the tickers is off... accordingly, the updates are NOT quite live?

Maybe it shows the money going into BTC but it does NOT show the money coming out of BTC and back to fiat?

Post: #842

(12-18-2013 05:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Problem China: Math does not add up at all. They're pinging 45+btcs on Fiatleak, volume is flat, price is rising, they pump and dump all night, lose their asses while awake, .05 sale raises their price after a 35btc sell off..etc etc..

I suspect in 2 hrs from now, China will dump again. The price is still quite high for useless coins...

So, it's best to go into cash with your coins.

If you're unsure, you could always split your BTC half in cash (for loss speculation) to buy back in later and put some of it in LTC and put them in a sell order (for profit speculation). LTC is more volatile both up & down.

PS BTC-e.com seems buggy tonight.

Post: #843

(12-18-2013 05:58 PM)Maciano Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 05:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Problem China: Math does not add up at all. They're pinging 45+btcs on Fiatleak, volume is flat, price is rising, they pump and dump all night, lose their asses while awake, .05 sale raises their price after a 35btc sell off..etc etc..

I suspect in 2 hrs from now, China will dump again. The price is still quite high for useless coins...

So, it's best to go into cash with your coins.

If you're unsure, you could always split your BTC half in cash (for loss speculation) to buy back in later and put some of it in LTC and put them in a sell order (for profit speculation). LTC is more volatile both up & down.

PS BTC-e.com seems buggy tonight.

2 hours is mid day for china.... .. You may be correct about another sell off ... which means both ups and downs for the next 10 hours.ish... but why 2 hours?

I also had several problems with BTC e in the last couple of hours.

Regarding the alt currencies, they seem to be falling more quickly than BTC... or at least their ups and downs are greater... and I suppose a guy could make or lose more on those...

Post: #844

[/quote]

2 hours is mid day for china.... .. You may be right... but why 2 hours?

I also had several problems with BTC e in the last couple of hours.
[/quote]

No in 2hrs it's 9 in the morning. When people are logged in to the net.

Post: #845

The live event is happening.

Post: #846

(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

(12-18-2013 03:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  If I had followed your suggestion about the clearly buy now based strictly on my bullish sentiment, then I would NOT have any money left b/c I would have bought all in at $1,200 (would not have been a good position to be in), and anyhow, as you seem to know, I am NOT investing in that kind of a way (which I have explained).

You seem to be purposefully simplifying about what I should do just to be argumentative or critical, b/c in some sense you seem to be suggesting that it does NOT matter whether I buy at $500 or $300, which we all seem to realize that buy in price does matter.

I'm saying if you're following DCA then why are you trying to time the market and hold back on your buying? If you're long-term bullish the price crashing like this is good for you, so this is definitely not the time to stop buying. The whole point of dollar-cost averaging is that it's impossible to perfectly time the market - so whether you think the bottom is $300 or $350 you keep buying as the price plunges to 500 and seems to keep dropping. I'm not being argumentative - you laid out your strategy pretty clearly in this thread, so follow it.

I'm in and long-term bullish. There's blood in the streets so I'm buying. If I lose everything so be it.

Post: #847

Manteau, do you elaborate somewhere why your bullish?

With all the alternative cryptos out there, I have a hard time seeing how BTC has any serious value whatsoever.

Post: #848

(12-18-2013 05:20 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 03:41 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 02:49 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 02:26 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  BTW.. since I remain long-term bullish on BTC... it is difficult to know either to buy in the 400s, especially if a guy were to know for sure that it is going into the 300s or even lower.. then if that lower price is for sure, then waiting would be the most appropriate course of action.

Hey dude

If you're long term bullish on BTC then the choice is clear - buy now, don't try to figure out the bottom. You've been talking a lot about your long term predictions and kept saying you were hoping the price would be cut in half, because with DCA you'd be able to buy in at a significantly lower price. If you really believe that, just go ahead and buy. If you want to play the ups and downs, don't buy, listen to el mech and go in when he does.

Portofmanteau:

As you may possibly already know, since I started investing in BTC (nearly 4 weeks now), I've been buying every day (except the first week when my Coinbase account was locked up). I've already described my methodology, as you seem to be aware of such.

If I had followed your suggestion about the clearly buy now based strictly on my bullish sentiment, then I would NOT have any money left b/c I would have bought all in at $1,200 (would not have been a good position to be in), and anyhow, as you seem to know, I am NOT investing in that kind of a way (which I have explained).

He was telling you DCA... not to go all in. Do you know what DCA means? I know I sound like an ass by asking that but you seemed to misinterpret his message.

JayDub:

You may consider reading these posting in context. I joined this BTC thread on page 18, and in my post #655, I described my then current thoughts on my BTC investment methodology which included discussion of daily dollar cost averaging and front loading my investment... and I have made varying posts attempting to clarify that methodology. Accordingly, I have the sense that Portofmanteau was suggesting something else... I'm NOT really clear, and maybe if Portofmanteau responds, we will get some better idea about what he was suggesting.

I don't claim to be any investment expert - just merely trying to diversify some of my assets out of the dollar in the most cost effective manner that I can muster - while learning about Bitcoin.

By the way, thanks for editing your initial post, b/c the edits were of assistance.

Post: #849

(12-18-2013 12:13 PM)jimmypa Wrote:  "As of this morning it looks like party is over."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013...e-the-dust

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/...e/4107831/

Bitcoin tumbles after China crackdown...

Bitcoin is supposed to be beyond the reach of governments, but some central banks and financial regulators are cracking down on the virtual currency, or questioning its status.

Bitcoin was supposed to be beyond the reach of governments, but investors in the virtual currency are realizing that is not the case.

The price of a Bitcoin slumped Wednesday after China's largest exchange for the virtual currency said it would stop accepting deposits in yuan — China's local currency.

The much-ballyhooed Bitcoin currency has lost more than half its value since hitting records above $1,100 at the end of November. On Wednesday, the price of a Bitcoin fell 18% to $558 and traded as low as $422.50 earlier in the day, according to an index run by CoinDesk, a website focused on digital currencies.

The exchange, BTC China, had to "temporarily stop its yuan account recharging functions," according to comments it made on Weibo, a popular Chinese micro-blogging service similar to Twitter.

Post: #850

(12-18-2013 07:11 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 12:13 PM)jimmypa Wrote:  "As of this morning it looks like party is over."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013...e-the-dust

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/...e/4107831/

Bitcoin tumbles after China crackdown...

Bitcoin is supposed to be beyond the reach of governments, but some central banks and financial regulators are cracking down on the virtual currency, or questioning its status.

Bitcoin was supposed to be beyond the reach of governments, but investors in the virtual currency are realizing that is not the case.

The price of a Bitcoin slumped Wednesday after China's largest exchange for the virtual currency said it would stop accepting deposits in yuan — China's local currency.

The much-ballyhooed Bitcoin currency has lost more than half its value since hitting records above $1,100 at the end of November. On Wednesday, the price of a Bitcoin fell 18% to $558 and traded as low as $422.50 earlier in the day, according to an index run by CoinDesk, a website focused on digital currencies.

The exchange, BTC China, had to "temporarily stop its yuan account recharging functions," according to comments it made on Weibo, a popular Chinese micro-blogging service similar to Twitter.

WTF Over?????? We have had some young rushers touting the holy crap out of this "Revolutionary Cyber Currency" that was about to change the world only to see it's bubble burst from $1,100+ to as low as $422.50???

Why - the Revolutionary Peoples Communist Party Red China Central committee declare this a bogus money laundry and currency control escape mechanism... If this were a true currency like a world reserve currency the Chinese would have to launch nuclear war against Russia, Japan and the PI to have this sort of impact on the world's reserve currency and even then it might rise as the world's safe haven reserve in time of turmoil NOT crash 60% plus like bubble coins.

The purpose of a currency is a to be a reliable and long term (More than ONE phooking month) transferable store of wealth.

There are a few ways to create reliable long term wealth and BubbleCoins is not it.