Post: #1051

The FBI is only going to sell approximately 30,000 BTC:

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-an...-bitcoins/

The rest of Dread Pirate Robert's coins are still in contention. My guess is that the FBI will sell the ~30K coins in an auction and not on one of the exchanges. This is what the FBI does with drug dealer's cars, houses, etc... My guess is some hedge fund or other large investor will end up buying the FBI's coins.

Post: #1052

(01-17-2014 03:07 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  The FBI is only going to sell approximately 30,000 BTC:

http://www.coindesk.com/us-government-an...-bitcoins/

The rest of Dread Pirate Robert's coins are still in contention. My guess is that the FBI will sell the ~30K coins in an auction and not on one of the exchanges. This is what the FBI does with drug dealer's cars, houses, etc... My guess is some hedge fund or other large investor will end up buying the FBI's coins.

I read a few articles about this, also, and it seems most convincing that the FBI is going to want to get as much dollars as it can from the 30,000 BTC stash, but they will NOT attempt to sell them on the exchanges b/c that is NOT their MO... - there is NO US Gov approved exchange, yet.

Additionally, the feds will likely consult with an auctioneer and attempt to get the most that they can for the BTC by breaking the stash into lots....b/c they would NOT likely get as much if they were to attempt to sell the whole BTC stash to one buyer.

Post: #1053

I'll be cash on 24th january, at highpoint that day.

From then on, I'm going to wait until 30th, after the whole China New Year thing plays out. I reckon, whatever I could lose can't be as much as what you could gain, so cash best option IMO. Last time FUD halved the exchange rate in a couple of days. (After which it bounced back, of course.)

Post: #1054

(01-20-2014 03:55 PM)Maciano Wrote:  I'll be cash on 24th january, at highpoint that day.

From then on, I'm going to wait until 30th, after the whole China New Year thing plays out. I reckon, whatever I could lose can't be as much as what you could gain, so cash best option IMO. Last time FUD halved the exchange rate in a couple of days. (After which it bounced back, of course.)

Maciano,

Surely, I appreciate that you specifically describe your intended BTC investment plan for the coming week. And, it seems that each of us have ourselves invested in BTC in different manners (in terms of the diversification of our total investment package).

I still do NOT believe that there are enough indicators that truly show BTC going down in value on or about the end of January. Accordingly, the way that I have my investment risk distributed, I would hate to take such a chance to get out of BTC and either BTC prices go up without me being invested or NOT to get back into BTC in a timely manner and miss out on BTC price rises.

If I were feeling fairly confident that BTC prices were going to fall by the end of January (which at this time, I am NOT), my strategy would be to wait and to buy BTC later (during the anticipated BTC price drop); however, I remain lacking in confidence about any guaranteed BTC price drop – and accordingly, I continue to buy BTC on nearly a daily basis because I find BTC priced in the lower $800s to be a good value – especially, because I believe that there is a decent possibility that BTC could go back over $1,000 (at least by no later than April)… and possibly never to return to sub-$1,000 prices. I do NOT want to miss out on that – were it to occur earlier, such as late January or early February.
My current plan is that if BTC prices continue to drop below $800, and possibly into the $400s, I will continue to buy and to buy increasing amounts on a regular basis and within my BTC investment budget (which personally, I only have so much money allocated to such).
In the end, I believe, even if in late January, BTC’s price were to drop in half to $425 or even drop lower, which seems strongly unlikely, BTC prices are coming back up above $850 very soon thereafter. Anyhow, I am willing to take such chances that BTC prices will fall and on paper my BTC will lose some value, rather than getting out of BTC and then trying to figure out when to get back in. Based on what I know right now, that’s my current thinking.

Post: #1055

(01-20-2014 03:55 PM)Maciano Wrote:  I'll be cash on 24th january, at highpoint that day.

From then on, I'm going to wait until 30th, after the whole China New Year thing plays out. I reckon, whatever I could lose can't be as much as what you could gain, so cash best option IMO. Last time FUD halved the exchange rate in a couple of days. (After which it bounced back, of course.)

how will you know what the highpoint is that day?

how ever cash might not be a bad idea..

Post: #1056

(01-21-2014 02:20 PM)pants Wrote:  

(01-20-2014 03:55 PM)Maciano Wrote:  I'll be cash on 24th january, at highpoint that day.

From then on, I'm going to wait until 30th, after the whole China New Year thing plays out. I reckon, whatever I could lose can't be as much as what you could gain, so cash best option IMO. Last time FUD halved the exchange rate in a couple of days. (After which it bounced back, of course.)

how will you know what the highpoint is that day?

how ever cash might not be a bad idea..

I want to supplement my post from yesterday evening.

I believe that I am NOT being overly optimistic about bitcoin b/c surely, there could be a crash in BTC prices at any time.

Nonetheless, nearly every day there is various good BTC news reports (that outweigh any bad reports) and venders seem to be continuing adding themselves into the BTC mix... the latest vendors related to E-bay and Paypal are planning various forms of BTC incorporation.

Additionally, the chinese news is more than a month old, and china trade volume seems to continue to be up. Are we anticipating that china BTC volume is going to drop off, all of a sudden?

In that regard, absent some devastating news, it seems reasonable to remain bullish about BTC and about the possibility that BTC prices could shoot up in value at any moment - never returning to today's prices.

Accordingly, getting into dollars could mean lost opportunities with BTC.

Post: #1057

^ Chinas volume is fake. If it wasn't a 300 coin sell wall on BTC-E wouldn't make a difference in the price but they go down just like everyone else when it happens.

Post: #1058

I'm all in NMC right now.

Post: #1059

Walls down, chance to make some small change..

Post: #1060

extremely profitable day for GPU miners...getting close to .4 BTC through arbitrage

Post: #1061

Is anybody buying litecoins?

Post: #1062

(01-21-2014 07:47 PM)Collide Wrote:  Is anybody buying litecoins?

No I'm done for now because all the holders live on it and are greedy as fuck

Post: #1063

(01-21-2014 07:47 PM)Collide Wrote:  Is anybody buying litecoins?

$24/LTC

so they're on sale ATM

but only buy as investment not to trade up to BTC

Post: #1064

Not at 24 though

Post: #1065

I want to buy litecoins as a long term investment but buying from Canada seems expensive and complicated.

Post: #1066

(01-21-2014 09:02 PM)Collide Wrote:  I want to buy litecoins as a long term investment but buying from Canada seems expensive and complicated.

can u get money into btc-e? or find someone on craigslist

Post: #1067

Here is a great article on Bitcoin:

Why Bitcoin Matters:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dealbook...ign=buffer

Post: #1068

(01-21-2014 09:02 PM)Collide Wrote:  I want to buy litecoins as a long term investment but buying from Canada seems expensive and complicated.

I mentioned in a previous post for Canadians Vault of Satoshi is a great simple trustworthy way to purchase litecoins at market rate.

http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537-...#pid619901

They've since added things such as depositing at their office in suburban Toronto, CAD support and pretty soon implementing direct payments I believe.

Post: #1069

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

Post: #1070

(01-22-2014 08:47 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

Technology, as a whole seems to me like a huge issue in Bitcoins...
I mean what if everybody owns a quantum computer in 15 years? The encryption technology will be worthless, so will be the bitcoins. There's just so many "what if's" when we look at the future technology/bitcoin issue

Post: #1071

(01-22-2014 08:47 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

The problem with other cryptocurrencies competing with Bitcoin is bitcoin has a huge network and a lot of infrastructure in place that would be hard to replicate with another altcoin. Remember, computing power is a scarce resource since there is only so much of it to go around. Right now, bitcoin is the most secure cryptocurrency by several orders of magnitude because of its giant network. Also, the new altcoins trade at a small fraction of bitcoin and have yet to gain much on bitcoin. Even litecoin (the second largest altcoin by market cap) has fallen as a fraction of bitcoin.

Post: #1072

(01-22-2014 02:40 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  

(01-22-2014 08:47 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

Technology, as a whole seems to me like a huge issue in Bitcoins...
I mean what if everybody owns a quantum computer in 15 years? The encryption technology will be worthless, so will be the bitcoins. There's just so many "what if's" when we look at the future technology/bitcoin issue

The bitcoin protocol can be updated with quantum-proof encryption (quarkcoin already kind of has this). Not a big deal.

Post: #1073

(01-21-2014 09:02 PM)Collide Wrote:  I want to buy litecoins as a long term investment but buying from Canada seems expensive and complicated.

Collide:

Your question seems to imply that for some reason LiteCoin may be a better value than BTC b/c litecoins are ONLY $24 per coin rather than $800+ per coin (the currentl BTC price). Personally, I recognize that guys come to varying evaluations about how to value of these various Alt-currencies based on the various features and market share of the coin. I would NOT let the price of the coin make you consider that litecoinis a better value than BTC or that litecoin has more potential upside, as compared with BTC. Keep in mind that you can buy BTC in very small increments.

Some people have suggested that litecoins are undervalued b/c they should be 1/4 the value of BTC (based on the fact that there are going to be a total of 84 million litecoins as compared with a total of 21 million BTC). Therefore if BTC and litecoin are the ONLY two standing, then they would be valued accordingly. Funny thing is that the market is NOT so logical in terms of making these kinds of valuations. Another funny thing is that currently we have few ideas about which if any of the cryptocurrencies are going to be the last ones standing down the road... next year or even 100 years from now.

Probably, we should mainly care about what is going to happen both short-term (within the next 6 months) and medium term (within the next few years) rather than what is going to happen 100 years from now (even though there is a bit of a value to the 100 year scenario as well b/c these various cryptocurrencies get some of their value by having a long term plan about how the coin is intended to develop in the long term).

(01-21-2014 07:56 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Not at 24 though

Who knows whether litecoin is overvalued or undervalued? There are a variety of factors that affect this, including market momentum and infrastructure and some of the network affect as referred to by Texas Prophet in post 1071 above - and when we look at these various alt cryptocurrencies, we see some of them have more momentum in the market than others (and both BTC and LTC fall in the category of having current market momentum status).

(01-22-2014 08:47 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

Zarzuelazen:

The argument that you making concerning the uncertainty and the potential overvaluation of BTC is valid, and the scenario that you describe regarding BTC being overtaken by another crypto-currency(ies) is a possibility; however it seems to be very speculative, at the moment because it seems to downplay momentum and the irrationality of momentum. Whenever we are looking at investments, we should be attempting to measure momentum and BTC has retained most of the current crypto-currency momentum.

Surely, some day BTC’sw advantage could dissapate, and BTC’s momentum could change suddenly and that is why BTC should NOT be the totality of any guy's investment. A problem with the scenario that you describe is that you are suggesting that BTC is overvalued and only worth $200 given the other crypto-currencies competition and because of that we should steer clear of BTC; however, at the moment, none of the other crypto-currencies have the BTC momentum that exists and will likely continue to exist into the near future.


An attractive aspect of BTC for any investor remains its uncertainty, its volatility and its general upward momentum (that may or may NOT last forever, as you suggest). I personally believe that guys can invest in BTC either long-term or short-term and can profit from such (or lose depending on timing and/or overall investment strategy), and if any guy were to invest as if he were a fund manager, he would only put a small percentage of his total investment into BTC (and to hedge his bets). And in that respect, if BTC becomes more mainstream, there are going to be a lot of fund managers that are going to want to place a percentage of their managed portfolios into BTC or some other crypto-curriencies. For a lot of reasons NOT limited to momentum, BTC remains an attractive investment candidate.

For investment purposes, currently, the competetion of other cryptocurrencies is NOT a bad thing for BTC, unless BTC were to lose its momentum. As an investor, we would hope that we are NOT so loyal to any one cryptocurrency as to miss any opportunity that may be presented to abandon ship and/or move to another cryptocurrency. At this time, BTC is doing well and BTC continues to have good prospects because it continues to be expanding in a large number of ways (vendors, developers, network, investors, speculators, and consumers). At the same time, you are correct, there are a variety of potential scenarios that BTC’s value could drop – but in my thinking, currently, none of those negative scenarios are imminent.

(01-22-2014 02:40 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Technology, as a whole seems to me like a huge issue in Bitcoins...
I mean what if everybody owns a quantum computer in 15 years? The encryption technology will be worthless, so will be the bitcoins. There's just so many "what if's" when we look at the future technology/bitcoin issue

I agree that there are a lot of “what ifs” in respect to BTC and other cryptocurrencies; however, you just presented a 15 year scenario –that currently is NOT imminent and I would NOT discontinue investing in BTC merely because of a speculation about what could occur 15 years from now.

Post: #1074

(01-22-2014 08:47 AM)zarzuelazen Wrote:  

(01-17-2014 12:30 PM)FrenchCanadian Wrote:  Don't know if it's been mentioned, but the lack of intrinsic value in bitcoins makes it hard for me to invest mid/long term.

All this, because ultimately, data, even encrypted, isn't worth anything.
A bitcoin system backed by a commodity, such as gold/silver/oil, would be a lot more interesting.

m2c

True.

But here's the big problem with Bitcoin as an investment:

Although the tech behind Bitcoin (i.e. block-chain) is an innovation, the same tech can be used for any number of rival coins. So even if I agree that the tech is a real innovation and crypto-currencies are the way of the future (which I do), the big problem is there is no real reason for the price of Bitcoin to keep rising when more and more rival coins keep appearing.

One scenario I can see is the price of Bitcoin crashing to a floor of around $US 200 as other rival coins suck away all the cash. So even if Bitcoin is here to stay, it's price may well fall to some fixed point and never rise again.

Bitcoin has the network effect advantage

If they can fix a couple of things, mainly the 1mb block limit. There is nothing revolutionary about other altcoin offers

Post: #1075

(01-21-2014 02:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Chinas volume is fake.

I have very little knowledge from where you are getting your information about China's trade volume being fake. You have made this assertion a few times, and you suggest that you are getting your information from BTC e troll box and fiatleaks.

I looked at fiatleaks. Generally, fiatleaks.com shows most of the BTC trade volume to be taking place through the USA or China (and only a fractional amount through other locations). Consistently, China's volume on fiatleaks is highest - generally ranging anywhere between 3 to 10 times the volume of the US.

That is what you are asserting to be fake, or something else?

Who is faking it? And, what is the motive for faking it? It sounds as if you are suggesting that BTC volume is some kind of overall conspiracy theory of pump and dump and there is NO long-term legitimacy in BTC b/c of various smoke and mirrors tactics. Is that what you are suggesting?

If so, do you have any sources for your assertion, besides the BTC e troll box? I have a couple of problems with the BTC e troll box. First, it would be very time consuming to try to follow the BTC e troll box and to try to follow what the posters are writing therein. Second, it would be very difficult to figure out which poster sources, therein, are good sources for BTC information, if any. Don't get me wrong, I am NOT hating on the BTC e troll box completely, b/c I do believe some valuable information can be gleaned from such BTC e troll box, and sometimes these kinds of troll boxes are breakers of latest and greatest news (regarding BTC or other crypto currencies) - -- Nonetheless, the BTC e troll box is also filled with a lot of hype and a lot of misinformation (and jokers), and in the end, a guy needs some talents to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Accordingly, I would prefer to base my investment actions on more reliable sources…. Though I do NOT have any specific ones myself except for watching the overall news, and recently I have been following quite a few redditt news sources concerning BTC. I admit that reddit sources are generally bullish on BTC; however, I read any news with a grain of salt and I attempt to cross check my news sources, when feasible.

(01-21-2014 02:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  If it wasn't a 300 coin sell wall on BTC-E wouldn't make a difference in the price but they go down just like everyone else when it happens.

(01-21-2014 06:49 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Walls down, chance to make some small change..

You seem to be talking to big shot insiders or big shot BTC’ers, here? I cannot see that many RVF guys are trading 300+ BTC at any time (or that many RVF’ers even have 300+ BTC in their investment portfolios - even though the price of BTC could be affected by the ability of other investers to make 300+ BTC trades. Are you trading in more than 300 BTC increments?

If so, I feel like very small potatoes in the BTC world because I am only up to a little over 18 BTC in my portfolio, after nearly two months of small increment buying.

(01-21-2014 06:20 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I'm all in NMC right now.

To me, this also makes very little sense about why a guy would get out of BTC for any of these other alt-crypto currencies… and specifically NMC? What advantage does NMC have over any other alt crypto coin or even being in dollars? I do NOT understand why anyone would do such. I would imagine if BTC crashes, then these various alt crypto currencies would also be likely to crash too….. unless there is something special about one or more of them that causes movement from BTC to one or more of these alt currencies – I do NOT recognize NMC to be such a crypto currency that would react opposite to BTC in the market.

(01-22-2014 10:57 PM)brg444 Wrote:  Bitcoin has the network effect advantage

If they can fix a couple of things, mainly the 1mb block limit. There is nothing revolutionary about other altcoin offers

Brg444:

I agree with your overall points, above, and in order to become more informed about your concerns about the 1mb block limit, I just read some information about that.

I do NOT claim to be any kind of expert about any technical aspects of BTC; however, it appears that the 1mb block limit is currently programed into BTC but such 1mb block limit is NOT currently negatively limiting BTC transactions – yet the 1 mb limit is expected to be reached in 1 to 2 years (based on current expected rates of growth). Additionally, it appears that with consensus of the miners, the 1mb limit can be raised – and in the end, the currently built in 1mb block limit is NO real and/or meaningful problem for BTC.

On a related note: there have been some criticisms about BTC being too slow in confirmations of transactions (which will cause it to be impractical for commercial and/or quick retail transactions), yet, it seems that there are a lot of ways that those lack of speed concerns can be addressed.
Personally, I find BTC to have problems with lack of user friendly interfaces and to be very technically difficult - NOT very user friendly with applications and/or security of BTC investments – however, I have confidence that with continued innovations of BTC developers (which seems to be ongoing), some kind of “Apple-like” company(ies) is/are going to come to BTC and present some user-friendly BTC interfaces. I am of the belief that we remain so much on the ground level of BTC innovations, and there is going to be a lot of movement in this BTC space in the coming couple of years – which is going to cause wide spread adoption, improvement in user-friendliness and security and an accompanied rise in BTC prices.