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The Bitcoin (BTC) thread
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el mechanico Offline
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Post: #1976
RE: The Bitcoin thread
You never know but like the lotto commercial says.. You got to be in it to win it
01-05-2015 08:23 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1977
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-05-2015 08:23 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  You never know but like the lotto commercial says.. You got to be in it to win it

I agree with you regarding the potential crypto currencies, especially bitcoin; however, regarding the lottery, about 20 years ago, I remember that my uncle told me that I need to be in the lottery in order to be able to win it.

At that time, I told my uncle that I was NOT interested in the lottery because overall I understood the lotto to be a loser's game (meaning that the house takes its cut and the lottery pool is ultimately paying out less than it takes in).

I believe that I still follow the same practice, and I do NOT generally play those kinds of gambles in which the house is taking a cut out of the proceeds. That's why I generally do NOT play in Vegas or any other gambling towns.

About 20 years ago, I told my uncle that I would rather invest my time and energies into ventures that have a positive payout, which included work and education and self improvement. Along these same lines, I believe that generally bitcoin has decent odds for achieving a positive payout - even though in the past 13 months, we have witnessed an increasingly shrinking poole of funds - namely the value (and market cap) of bitcoin has shrunk by about 75% - and surely that shrinking market cap sucks.... however, if we step back and we look at the larger bitcoin picture, we will see a lot of amazing things with bitcoin, and even its price in the past 6 years has gone from a value of nothing to a market cap value of nearly $4billion, and I continue to believe that growth of bitcoin and its infrastructure remains really something to be awed by.
01-05-2015 08:38 PM
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Cattle Rustler Offline
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Post: #1978
RE: The Bitcoin thread
So what's JJG's outlook? Hold, buy? Increase or decrease in value?

"May get ugly at times. But we get by. Real Niggas never die." - cdr
01-05-2015 09:54 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1979
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-05-2015 09:54 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  So what's JJG's outlook? Hold, buy? Increase or decrease in value?


Thanks for asking Cattle Rustler:

Here's a general update regarding my BTC investment particulars to attempt to answer your questions.

RVF guys have to decide for themselves based on the diversification of their own investment portfolios, their risk tolerance, timeline, financial assets and view of BTC probabilities, and my outlook has been repeated quite a bit throughout this thread.

I am NOT a BTC (or crypto) trader, except maybe for big swings, and only once my BTC investment is clearly in the black (hopefully at some point in the coming years).

In the November / December 2013 time frame, I had indicated in this thread that I had made an initial investment allocation of $30k in the first 6 months into BTC (which I spread out my investment over the six months between December 2013 and June 2014), and then thereafter, in June/July 2014 (while prices were in the lower $600s) I decided to make a doubling of my initial investment into BTC because at that time, I thought that the probabilities were good that BTC prices were going to go up from there (yes, I was wrong about that).

From August 2014 to present and plans into the near future, I have generally been buying BTC and holding, and as we know, the BTC prices have continued to drop.

Nonetheless, as my money comes in, I allocate a portion of my income to investment and, since about early to mid 2014, all of my "new" investment allocated money has been directed towards increasing my BTC holdings, even though some of my money has been held in reserves in order to attempt to time my investment into BTC (but from time to time I have run out of my allocation of money, even when the BTC prices have gone lower).

Actually, I consider BTC to be a hedge against the dollar, and most of my other investments are tied to the dollar, and at this time, about 10% or less of my total quasi-liquid investments are in BTC.

In any event, I consider my plan to be tailored to my own circumstances, and guys should consider their BTC investment strategies based on their own circumstances including diversification of their investments, their timeline, their risk tolerance, their view of probabilities concerning the price direction of BTC.

I really do NOT have any meaningful prediction concerning the short term price direction of BTC, and even in the long term, I anticipate that we are going to have another exponential upward BTC price growth, yet that upward price growth could take a week or more or even could take a couple of years. NONETHELESS, as I already stated, I am inclined to believe that chances are pretty decent that from this current BTC price point of upper $200s that 2015 is going to be a bullish year for BTC rather than a bearish year (like was 2014).


What about you Cattle Rustler? Do you own any BTC? Have you invested in BTC in the past? Do you have any plans to invest in BTC? Have you set up any BTC accounts to buy BTC?
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2015 10:46 PM by JayJuanGee.)
01-05-2015 10:31 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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Post: #1980
RE: The Bitcoin thread
How many BTC do you hold right now JJG and what is your average buy in price?

My MAID have increased times 4.5 from 4000 satoshis to 18000 which is pretty nice, to bad I sold about 66% of my stash or something like that, in hope to buy back in cheaper, which probably won't happen.

I went long at $367 for 13BTC and greedy and didn't close it when we were in the $380 region, I will get margin called if we go down bellow $200, that seems unlikely but if we do I might actually need that suiced hotline. Had to sell 1.5BTC two days ago too, to pay my rent. Didn't feel good about that. However this will be the last coins sold from me until we're at least in four digits again.

Might bounce up good when bitstamps open again, but who really knows.
01-07-2015 04:01 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1981
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  How many BTC do you hold right now JJG and what is your average buy in price?

For personal privacy reasons (even though we are quasi-anonymous here), I don't want to disclose my exact BTC holdings; however, I will disclose some ideas regarding my holdings.

In about the next 24 hours, I expect to receive enough fiat to buy around 25 BTC (at current prices), and after I make those purchases, I expect my average buy in price to drop from about $532 to $512. I do have a bit of a problem with my average buy in price, especially since i made considerable quantities of BTC purchases in the upper $500s and lower $600s (one of the problems of investing with a dollar cost averaging methodology).

Surely, it would be nice to get some upward BTC price action in the next 6 months, but I can hold out during a BTC price depression for several years, if needed, because I was NOT expecting to cash out of my BTC any time in the near future. However, I was expecting to cash out some of my BTC portfolio if it were to go sufficiently into the black. Since being in the black is somewhat speculative at the moment, I have NOT yet settled on exact amounts of BTC price appreciation that I would need in order to cash out part of my BTC portfolio.

I do retain some theories about BTC price movement that I have stated earlier in this thread, but largely my theory is that once BTC prices get into the $800s territory, then it is going to likely shoot past the previous ATH of $1,163 into the $3k to $9k territory. But I think that before we reach the $800s price arena, we are in for quite a bit of BTC price volatility and profit taking that may prevent us or prolongedly delay reaching the $800 price arena.








(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  My MAID have increased times 4.5 from 4000 satoshis to 18000 which is pretty nice, to bad I sold about 66% of my stash or something like that, in hope to buy back in cheaper, which probably won't happen.

Yeah, it's hard to predict exactly when there is going to be a price appreciation, and surely you were engaging in some risk taking when you diversified your BTC holdings into MAID, Mastercoin and one or two others, no?



(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  I went long at $367 for 13BTC and greedy and didn't close it when we were in the $380 region, I will get margin called if we go down bellow $200, that seems unlikely but if we do I might actually need that suiced hotline.

Never say never in Bitcoinlandia, but it does seem like a longshot for BTC prices to go below $200, and the current temporary closing down of Bitstamp does seem to lend a certain degree of uncertainty concerning the BTC price direction in the coming week or so. There could be further surprises, either positive or negative regarding details of their nearly 19k missing BTC.



(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Had to sell 1.5BTC two days ago too, to pay my rent. Didn't feel good about that. However this will be the last coins sold from me until we're at least in four digits again.

Yeah.. we know that saying that the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent, so we have to be prepared for the long run when considering potential needs to cash out parts of our BTC holdings.




(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  Might bounce up good when bitstamps open again, but who really knows.

Sure, it is possible to bounce up, but we have had so much downward BTC price movement for so long that it is difficult to have confidence regarding whether anything is going to ensure us to upward BTC price movement.



By the way, Satoshi, in which countries have you recently used BTC? You are currently in Thailand, right, and in Thailand they have become more receptive to BTC, right? Have you travelled to Vietnam? I am planning to go to Vietnam in late January and mid-February, and I am wondering if I should attempt to spend BTC while there?
01-07-2015 04:50 AM
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Independent1 Offline
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Post: #1982
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2015 04:50 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  
(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  How many BTC do you hold right now JJG and what is your average buy in price?

For personal privacy reasons (even though we are quasi-anonymous here), I don't want to disclose my exact BTC holdings; however, I will disclose some ideas regarding my holdings.

In about the next 24 hours, I expect to receive enough fiat to buy around 25 BTC (at current prices), and after I make those purchases, I expect my average buy in price to drop from about $532 to $512. I do have a bit of a problem with my average buy in price, especially since i made considerable quantities of BTC purchases in the upper $500s and lower $600s (one of the problems of investing with a dollar cost averaging methodology).

Surely, it would be nice to get some upward BTC price action in the next 6 months, but I can hold out during a BTC price depression for several years, if needed, because I was NOT expecting to cash out of my BTC any time in the near future. However, I was expecting to cash out some of my BTC portfolio if it were to go sufficiently into the black. Since being in the black is somewhat speculative at the moment, I have NOT yet settled on exact amounts of BTC price appreciation that I would need in order to cash out part of my BTC portfolio.

I do retain some theories about BTC price movement that I have stated earlier in this thread, but largely my theory is that once BTC prices get into the $800s territory, then it is going to likely shoot past the previous ATH of $1,163 into the $3k to $9k territory. But I think that before we reach the $800s price arena, we are in for quite a bit of BTC price volatility and profit taking that may prevent us or prolongedly delay reaching the $800 price arena.



So you are basically saying that at some point BTC will rise to 800 USD then 3k-9k each? I just looked at the pricing chart for the last year and noticed the current price hasn't been this low in over a year, I am thinking of putting a 5k USD investment into bitcoins but am not totally sure yet. I doubt they will get much lower than the current price? I am pretty sure they will slowly rise again in price..


If you own BTC can you sell it instantly at anytime?
01-07-2015 05:10 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1983
RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2015 05:10 AM)Lanky0 Wrote:  
(01-07-2015 04:50 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  [quote='Satoshi' pid='924564' dateline='1420621304']
How many BTC do you hold right now JJG and what is your average buy in price?

For personal privacy reasons (even though we are quasi-anonymous here), I don't want to disclose my exact BTC holdings; however, I will disclose some ideas regarding my holdings.

In about the next 24 hours, I expect to receive enough fiat to buy around 25 BTC (at current prices), and after I make those purchases, I expect my average buy in price to drop from about $532 to $512. I do have a bit of a problem with my average buy in price, especially since i made considerable quantities of BTC purchases in the upper $500s and lower $600s (one of the problems of investing with a dollar cost averaging methodology).

Surely, it would be nice to get some upward BTC price action in the next 6 months, but I can hold out during a BTC price depression for several years, if needed, because I was NOT expecting to cash out of my BTC any time in the near future. However, I was expecting to cash out some of my BTC portfolio if it were to go sufficiently into the black. Since being in the black is somewhat speculative at the moment, I have NOT yet settled on exact amounts of BTC price appreciation that I would need in order to cash out part of my BTC portfolio.

I do retain some theories about BTC price movement that I have stated earlier in this thread, but largely my theory is that once BTC prices get into the $800s territory, then it is going to likely shoot past the previous ATH of $1,163 into the $3k to $9k territory. But I think that before we reach the $800s price arena, we are in for quite a bit of BTC price volatility and profit taking that may prevent us or prolongedly delay reaching the $800 price arena.



(01-07-2015 05:10 AM)Lanky0 Wrote:  So you are basically saying that at some point BTC will rise to 800 USD then 3k-9k each?

Even though I have been studying the BTC space for more than the last year, I have been wrong so often about the direction of BTC prices in the past year, that I am NOT really predicting anything regarding BTC price direction with any certain terms... especially when it comes to short-term BTC prices.

Also, I anticipate that if there continues to be a lot of downward price pressures and profit taking in the $2xx to $800 price range, then these downward BTC price manipulators could keep BTC prices down for another year or two or even longer.

To me it seems that because BTC prices have been so downwardly manipulated in the past year, I am anticipating 2015 to be generally a BTC price uptrend year... because to me it seems that it would be difficult to continue to manipulate BTC prices down further, especially given how much investment has been going into various aspects of BTC infrastructure. And there are several big BTC investors who have the means to cause BTC prices to go up who probably would NOT want BTC prices to go below a certain price point or to stay below a certain price point for very long.



(01-07-2015 05:10 AM)Lanky0 Wrote:  I just looked at the pricing chart for the last year and noticed the current price hasn't been this low in over a year, I am thinking of putting a 5k USD investment into bitcoins but am not totally sure yet. I doubt they will get much lower than the current price? I am pretty sure they will slowly rise again in price..

For the reasons stated above and in some of my earlier posts, I generally agree with you, here. NONETHELESS, in the next week or so, we may see a few surprises in relation to issues surrounding Bitstamp, and even in the near future, there could be announcements for the US Marshalls to auction off another 94k coins in their possession or there could be new issues concerning the 200k found Gox coins or the 600k missing Gox coins.




(01-07-2015 05:10 AM)Lanky0 Wrote:  If you own BTC can you sell it instantly at anytime?

Over the past year, BTC has become fairly liquid, depending upon where you are at. I am mostly familiar with the USA; however, if you are in the UK (as mentioned in your profile), then there are likely various liquidation channels there as well. Sometimes it does take a little bit of time to research and to set up your various accounts and to practice using them in order that you can figure out how to buy and how to liquidate, if you want to liquidate quickly (and to learn the various fees associated with such transactions).

In the USA, I have accounts with Coinbase, Circle and Local Bitcoins, and I could liquidate up to $50k per day through Coinbase, if needed. Surely, there are also purchases that can be made through various venders, too in order to liquidate coins... or even getting involved with various bitcoin meet-ups could help to engage in off exchange transactions between you and private parties.
01-07-2015 05:39 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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Post: #1984
RE: The Bitcoin thread
Below is a fairly decent link to an overview of the big events in Bitcoin in the past 18 months.

The article mostly describes facts correctly, except the article is not correct regarding the quantity of Silk Road bitcoins auctioned off by us marshals during 2014. The article incorrectly said that there was 18k btc auctioned off; however in 2014, there were two us marshals Bitcoin auctions with a total of nearly 80k Bitcoins auctioned off, the first auction was in June and almost 30k btc was auctioned off with a seemingly bullish result of one person winning all the coins (that were auctioned off in 10 lots). The second US Marshals auction was in September and 50k btc was auctioned off with a seemingly bearish result of several entities winning the various coin lots (that were auctioned off in 20 lots and at a btc price of nearly 50% lower than the first auction). Of note, is that the U.S. Marshals still retain at least 94k Silk Road btc in it's possession, yet have NOT yet scheduled a time to auction off those 94k btc.

http://bitcoinist.net/eighteen-month-bitcoin-analysis/
01-07-2015 02:48 PM
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Plato Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Kinda' newbie question.

But...

Isn't the long term goal for bitcoin enthusiasts to see the value of bitcoins fall - so that it can become a workable currency? Since - nobody is gonna' spend coins that keep appreciating in value.

If US dollars kept doubling in value every few weeks - we would hoard them and just barter for goods with cigarettes. As such - dollars - in such a world - would no longer be of any use as a workable currency.

What do the early investors think about this? It must be a common question - so apologies for that.
01-08-2015 06:30 PM
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freshfresca Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
I'm sure someone can explain this in much more depth but lay mans terms...there will eventually be 21 million bitcoins in circulation- this will be the max number of coins created. Also, bitcoin can be split up. For example, subway now excepts bitcoin. I could walk into subway and spend $7 and at current bitcoin price ($297) I'd have .976...% Bitcoin left.

As an investor I hope that a single bitcoin will hit four or five figures
01-08-2015 08:01 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-08-2015 06:30 PM)Plato Wrote:  Kinda' newbie question.

But...

Isn't the long term goal for bitcoin enthusiasts to see the value of bitcoins fall - so that it can become a workable currency? Since - nobody is gonna' spend coins that keep appreciating in value.

Welcome Plato.

Your question seems NOT only to be like a newbie question, but bordering on trolling.... NONETHELESS, I will give some benefit of the doubt to attempt to respond to some of its substance, but certainly there are a variety of sources, including this thread in which you could become a bit more informed regarding your question formulation... and even thinking through the topic a little bit.


Don't get caught up on how bitcoins are divided exactly because you do NOT need to spend full bitcoins, and the market cap is a much more important concept rather than the price of one bitcoin. Currently, the market cap of bitcoin is less than $4billion dollars, and last year, when bitcoin was at its previous all time high (of nearly $1,200 per BTC), the market cap was at about $15billion.

In this regard, Bitcoin would be much more stable, as a currency with a larger market cap, rather than a smaller market cap. A larger market cap makes BTC much more stable and less susceptible to volatility through manipulation. In any event, bitcoin is NOT only functional as a sort of currency, but it is also a storage of value and a payment system and a public ledger. Storage of value and payment system would also be with bitcoin and more stable with a higher market cap.

For example, gold has a market cap of more than 6 trillion, yet gold is still manipulated (but fairly stable, but still volatile). Also, there are billions and billions of dollar value transacted through various institutional payment systems including credit cards and western union and paypal. More stability is likely to come through higher market cap rather than a lower market cap, and higher market cap is higher prices.. which some big players likely realize these facts, even though they may NOT be saying it.





(01-08-2015 06:30 PM)Plato Wrote:  If US dollars kept doubling in value every few weeks - we would hoard them and just barter for goods with cigarettes. As such - dollars - in such a world - would no longer be of any use as a workable currency.


I would NOT get so caught up in such speculation because you seem to be creating a strawman argument to assert that BTC is aspiring to be a currency, and then to assert why it would NOT be a good currency if it value goes up a lot.. Like I mentioned above, bitcoin is much more than a potential currency, and the problem that you described has been discussed at various parts in this thread and also is frequently brought up to attempt to make easy distraction and diversionary attacks at bitcoin.

Bitcoin has a lot of potential, and it seems short sighted an narrow-minded to get caught up on attempts to oversimplify bitcoin. In this regard, if you read up on the topic, you will likely be able to bring some more interesting discussions of the inflationary/deflationary concepts as they relate to bitcoin as compared with fiat currencies.





(01-08-2015 06:30 PM)Plato Wrote:  What do the early investors think about this? It must be a common question - so apologies for that.

Yes common question and discussed in various parts of this thread and another RVF bitcoin thread. Maybe some other "early" and/or "earlier" investors have some insight to add, as well?

Plato: are you contemplating getting into BTC or are you just beginning some research into BTC? Do you have some other investments that you prefer, for example to hedge against the dollar?
01-09-2015 02:52 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-08-2015 08:01 PM)freshfresca Wrote:  I'm sure someone can explain this in much more depth but lay mans terms...there will eventually be 21 million bitcoins in circulation- this will be the max number of coins created. Also, bitcoin can be split up. For example, subway now excepts bitcoin. I could walk into subway and spend $7 and at current bitcoin price ($297) I'd have .976...% Bitcoin left.


I understand and I agree with your point here, Freshfresca.

we can buy and sell bitcoins in fractions of a bitcoin that currently can be broken down to 100 millionth of a bitcoin, which is 1 satoshi. There are various discussions to move the nomination of bitcoins to milibits or to microbits or to bits and there is some differences of opinion in the bitcoin community regarding the correct nominations and how much to divide down bitcoin to use smaller denominations.

Yet, even if the nomenclature does NOT change, the concept remains the same that we can buy and sell bitcoins in fractions. For example, if the exchange rate is $300, I can go to an exchange and buy .33 bitcoins for $100 or .033 for $10 or .0033 for $1. A lot of people find this a little bit confusion with fractions of a bitcoin, and that is why there has been some discussion and push to change the nomenclature down to bits, which would be 1 millionth of a bitcoin. If that were the case, then at an exchange rate of $300 per BTC, $1 would be the equivalent of 3,333 bits, and $10 would be 333.3 bits and $100 would be 33.33 bits, and 1 satoshi would equal .01 bits.



(01-08-2015 08:01 PM)freshfresca Wrote:  As an investor I hope that a single bitcoin will hit four or five figures

It does seem likely that bitcoin is going to move in the direction of 4 or 5 figures, but seems to be a question of time, whether 1 month or a few years.
01-09-2015 03:07 AM
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Plato Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
@JJG - thanks for the intelligent response. And apologies if I sounded facetious. That was not my intention.

I find the whole topic very interesting since Economics is a subject that fascinates me.

An author I respect recently wrote a well recieved book about bitcoins. I have been checking Amazon over the past year or two - and this seems to be the first major book analysing the bitcoin phenomena.

The publisher who put out the book is quite interesting by the way. Their business model is a kind of 'Kickstarter' but for books that readers might be interested in reading.

[Image: 9781783520763.jpg?1410538138]

http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Future-Mon...bc?ie=UTF8

I am snowed under with books at the moment. But I am definitely going to check it out at some point. Like I say - this is pretty much the first decent book that has been written on this topic (according to reviews).
01-09-2015 08:04 AM
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-07-2015 04:01 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  I went long at $367 for 13BTC and greedy and didn't close it when we were in the $380 region, I will get margin called if we go down bellow $200, that seems unlikely but if we do I might actually need that suiced hotline. Had to sell 1.5BTC two days ago too, to pay my rent. Didn't feel good about that. However this will be the last coins sold from me until we're at least in four digits again.

Might bounce up good when bitstamps open again, but who really knows.

Whoaza!!!!!! This bitcoin price fluctuation has been really fucked in the last couple of weeks, with the temporary closure of Bitstamp, and then Bitstamp opened up within about 4.5 days with a more secure server.

Thereafter, with BTC prices at around $280, people were expecting some kind of bitcoin price rally (because Bitstamp had appeared to handle its security problem fairly well); however, the BTC price rally was short-lived and arguably non-existent - because it was less than 24 hours. What happened within a few days after Bitstamp re-opened was a large downfall in BTC prices, and in the last few hours the capitulation of $200 down to $155 on Bitstamp and $166 on Bitfinex.

In essence, quite the BTC price capitulation; however, as I type, it remains difficult to determine whether BTC prices are going to be continuing downward or upward.

Currently, as I type BTC prices fluctuating in the $185-$190 price arena, yet in the last about 2 hours a quite a bit of volume with more than 66k btc traded on Btitfinex and more than 22k BTC traded on bitstamp and more than 12k BTC traded on BTC-e. - Arguably high BTC trade volumes on each of those three dollar exchanges.

Certainly, I remain nervous with these ongoing low and lowering BTC prices because I am running out of money to buy because I bought a bunch of coins in the upper $200s and even in the $300s.... the stress of the saying - trying to catch a falling knife.

@Satoshi - seems like you will be suffering some stress too, if you were margin called at around $200 - or if you were able to place a stop-loss in order to prevent being margin call.

Even though my losses in my BTC portfolio continue to appear on paper, at some point those portfolio losses are going to materialize into reality if I am needing to draw into those BTC funds - in spite of their seemingly ongoing low price points. We will see, and for me and due to my holding and my ongoing buying, low BTC prices causes more problems than high BTC prices.
01-14-2015 03:41 AM
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chyamor Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Sold my 4 I held for over a year last night around 230 mark. Bought 5 back in the day for $75 each, sold 1 around $800 and held onto last 4 to see if maybe something would cause it to skyrocket. Maybe I'll get back in when bitcoin 2.0 version comes out.
01-14-2015 10:35 AM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-14-2015 10:35 AM)chyamor Wrote:  Sold my 4 I held for over a year last night around 230 mark. Bought 5 back in the day for $75 each, sold 1 around $800 and held onto last 4 to see if maybe something would cause it to skyrocket. Maybe I'll get back in when bitcoin 2.0 version comes out.


Surely, some of this downward price trend is going to shake a few additional hands, even hands of the longer term BTC holders. NONETHELESS, i believe that it is way too early to write off bitcoin - even though we could experience another year or two of these kinds of downward BTC prices pressures in spite of what seems to be ongoing decent fundamentals, including development investment, investment into mining and wider adoption.

I have also considered that there could be scenarios in which big banks and big money is engaging in various shenanigans, including operating at a loss in order to continue to create the force downward price pressures - yet some of that thinking could be tinfoil hat speculation because it is really difficult to know what is going on behind the scenes.

There has certainly been a lot of exchange action going around with bitcoin - especially in the past 40 hours or so, and I have been quoting the statistics of Bitfinex because that exchange seems to have taken over as the price guidance (peg) for both Coinbase and Circle - ever since the temporary closure of Bitstamp last week.

Anyhow, in about the past 40 hours, we have witnessed close to record breaking volumes of coins being exchanged, and if we just look at Bitfinex and Bitstamp, we have seen Bitfinex exchanging more than 350,000 BTC during that period, and we have seen Bitstamp exchange 150,000 BTC during that same period.

The remainder of this week will likely be interesting to see what happens with BTC prices, even though current prices are somewhat depressing for some of us bitcoin holders.
01-14-2015 12:25 PM
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mymotivation Offline
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Post: #1993
RE: The Bitcoin thread
I wonder if I should buy some btc now or hold and see if it drops a bit more, hmm..
01-14-2015 04:10 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-14-2015 04:10 PM)mymotivation Wrote:  I wonder if I should buy some btc now or hold and see if it drops a bit more, hmm..

At the moment, and as I type, there seems to be considerable downward BTC price pressures, and you never know when such downward price pressure is going to reverse.

If you currently do NOT own any BTC, then it seems that it would be good to acquire some BTC right away, just in case the price goes up. At the same time, given the current downward BTC price pressures, you may want to wait and see regarding the majority portion of your potentially available BTC investment funds.

At the same time, if you are inclined to buy, then you should at least have some accounts set up for buying? Do you already have a bitcoin account set up? Some accounts will take a while to set up and to verify and to get to higher levels of verification which will allow for quicker and larger transactions after you have achieved higher verification levels. Which service are you using or planning to use?
01-14-2015 06:50 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Yeah I did get margin called, lost about 10BTC.

I'm currenctly owning about 8BTC and MAIDcoins worth about 18-20BTC.

Sucks really hard, even though I've cashed out my initial deposit several times already this big lose, including the one earlier in 2014 when I also lost a big amount of BTC in margin trading. It hurts.

Hope to price drops below $100 dollars, then I might be able to buy back what I've lost giving me a total of 50BTC which was what I had from the beginning.

By the way the whole forex market seems to be in a big crisis, with the USD going up against almost everything. I think USD is in a bubble now before it will collapse completely.
01-15-2015 01:51 PM
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Rawmeo Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
I bought when it fell to a new low a few days ago, went up to 220, and I thought it would go higher, but it went down and triggered my sale-stop order at 210... well it will be better next time.

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01-15-2015 03:54 PM
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Satoshi Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-15-2015 03:54 PM)alex3948 Wrote:  I bought when it fell to a new low a few days ago, went up to 220, and I thought it would go higher, but it went down and triggered my sale-stop order at 210... well it will be better next time.

So profit? Good for you
01-15-2015 06:17 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-15-2015 01:51 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Yeah I did get margin called, lost about 10BTC.

Trading is tough no matter what, and even when we begin to believe that we are making safe bets, there seem to never fail to be surprises. in this regard, all of 2014 - well starting in December 2013 and into January 2015 has been a very tough period of time for those who are bullish about Bitcoin and/or other crypto currencies (at least in regard to the price).

On the other hand, people shorting and betting against btc and other crypto would have had the trend on their side.

A bright side for you, Satoshi, has been that you had been trading with profits - so overall you have done pretty well with BTC and other cryptos, but understandably, it can be quite irritating to either lose or to fail to realize profits.

On the other hand, sometimes taking a risk can pay off fairly well, yet there remains the concept of the Martingale betting system , which suggests that if you keep doubling down, sooner or later you are going to lose. In any event, I understand that bitcoin and the system that you were attempting to employ, Satoshi, was likely more sophisticated than a simple Martingale system because you were attempting to take into account other factors besides making a 50/50 bet (as the Martingale betting system would suggest).



(01-15-2015 01:51 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  I'm currenctly owning about 8BTC and MAIDcoins worth about 18-20BTC.

Surely this seems like it would NOT be a bad time to accumulate BTC - if you have fiat, yet I have similar issues in that I had invested pretty good chunks already at $580 then $480 and then $380 and then $280. So in that regard, I am running out of fiat... ahahahahahaha, and then the BTC that I hold does NOT seem to be worth as much.. WTF???





(01-15-2015 01:51 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Sucks really hard, even though I've cashed out my initial deposit several times already this big lose, including the one earlier in 2014 when I also lost a big amount of BTC in margin trading. It hurts.

Yes... trading on margin has a great upside potential, but also as we know a great potential to wipe guys out, too. Probably, I could have sold seeral times and then moved my BTC investment from the red to the black; however, several times I became gun shy when I missed my marks.. and probably over the year I have locked in losses of less than a BTC, and I probably lost on paper about 3 BTC through my alt coin purchases, and depreciation has put my total investment at about less than 50% of the fiat that I invested into it - however, those losses still remain on paper and continue to have recovery potential - and some people are starting to call this hopium - but as I mentioned regarding what appears to be record-breaking trade volume on the various exchanges, we may currently be witnessing a trend reversal (rather than a mere bulltrap).

Actually, it pisses me off a little bit that I was beginning to believe that the stamp news was good and I bought about 10 BTC in the $280 range - even though if I had waited a week, I could have bought nearly 17 BTC in the $170 range... What a precarious and difficult to predict set of circumstances that likely frustrates a lot of us smaller time folks attempting to make reasonable purchases.


(01-15-2015 01:51 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  Hope to price drops below $100 dollars, then I might be able to buy back what I've lost giving me a total of 50BTC which was what I had from the beginning.

Never say never in Bitcoinlandia, but it seems that double digit prices are a bit "pie in the sky" thinking... but what the fuck do I know? Surely, we all know the philosophy of buy low and sell high and better to buy lower if possible, but at the same time, we do NOT want to miss out because we are attempting to be too greedy by waiting for the prices to get lower than they realistically are going to get. There seems to be quite a lot of resistance in this lower $200 price territory, so I am anticipating that prices are going to need to spring up from here and that they cannot stay in this lower $200s territory for very long... which causes two potential scenarios.. 1) prices spring up - like I just mentioned to the $250 and above range.. or 2) prices go below $200 and confidence is lost - then in that situation, prices may get to the $100 price arena. I am betting that it is way more likely that scenario 1 will take place, rather than scenario 2... maybe I will give it a 9/10 versus a 1/10... just my rough estimate based on my quasi-layman's thinking.




(01-15-2015 01:51 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  By the way the whole forex market seems to be in a big crisis, with the USD going up against almost everything. I think USD is in a bubble now before it will collapse completely.


I do NOT disagree with you about the artificial propping up of the dollar, and who knows for how long it will last. Yet, I would NOT write off the dollar too quickly.....

I think that the reason several of us are in cypto-currencies, including bitcoin, is to be able to hedge our bets against the dollar. Whether bitcoin is a good hedge against the dollar may be another question because if the dollar crashes in a half-assed manner, then maybe BTC will survive and be a decent hedge against the dollar. On the other hand, if the dollar does some major full-blown (take the whole world with it) crash , then maybe bitcoin will NOT do very well under those kinds of circumstances.. Probably, bitcoin relies upon some kind of stability in the crashing transition rather than outright full-blown collapse of the dollar (and various dollar systems).... that is if such a dollar collapse is going to be taking place any time soon.
01-15-2015 10:13 PM
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JayJuanGee Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
(01-15-2015 06:17 PM)Satoshi Wrote:  
(01-15-2015 03:54 PM)alex3948 Wrote:  I bought when it fell to a new low a few days ago, went up to 220, and I thought it would go higher, but it went down and triggered my sale-stop order at 210... well it will be better next time.

So profit? Good for you


I was also a bit curious about what Alex3948 meant by his post. I think that Alex is saying that he profited by engaging in short-term trading, by buying in the $170s territory and selling around $210; however, he could have profited more if the price had gone up a little higher to maybe $240 or $250?

In any event, it seems that Alex3948 has locked in his profits, and is currently in dollars rather than being in BTC.

I think that any of us has the potential to make some short-term profitable trades in BTC if we are in the short-term trading mindset (especially when prices are very volatile, as they have been in the past weeks), yet I continue to think that there remains quite a bit of luck in engaging in these various short-term trading practice.. and maybe even harder to claim profits in the last year since the BTC price trendline seems to have been mostly downward, rather than upward.

I have been more inclined towards considering trading BTC, somewhat on bigger and longer trend lines - though I am NOT any authority to speak on this trading topic even in long term trend lines since my BTC portfolio seems to had been going further and further into the red (except for the recent reprieve in the last couple of days).

Can't really hate on anyone for making a profit though, congrats Alex3948.
01-15-2015 10:29 PM
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Rawmeo Offline
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RE: The Bitcoin thread
Yes I am currently in dollars. I bought 10 BTC at US$180 and let it go up, at $225 I decided to place a sell-stop at $210 in case it would go down. I should have sold at $225 instead, but the market shows no mercy.

You can make money fast, but you can also lose money even faster.

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01-16-2015 01:56 AM
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