(03-10-2014 06:32 AM)rastignac Wrote:
(03-09-2014 07:32 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:
(03-09-2014 07:04 PM)rastignac Wrote:
Why are we discussing this again?This is not meant at anyone specifically.
(03-08-2014 06:46 PM)DaveR Wrote:
(03-08-2014 02:45 PM)Big Nilla Wrote: Probably best for Russia to annex Crimea to starve Ukraine of pipeline and bases money and leave it at that... and use the Russian loyalists all over the rest of Ukraine to make it politically impossible for the West/NATO to tip Ukraine to that side. Basically keep Ukraine as it is... a mess.
I would say "divide and conquer" is definitely part of Russia's plan.
(03-08-2014 02:45 PM)Big Nilla Wrote: What's best for Ukrainians (both the nationalists and Russians) is to simply go their own ways if they had a choice in the matter. There will never be stability in Ukraine, otherwise, since it is just a pawn for others to manipulate the "multiculturalism" split. As long as NATO isn't brought in to the western half the situation and split should be fine... sort of like the Czech Republic and Slovakia. But the nationalist part of Ukraine would probably be landlocked and not really have anything to build a strong economy with.
This is one thing I'm not so sure about.
Except for Crimea, Russian doesn't have absolute dominance in any of Ukraine's oblasts. Donetsk and Lugansk have the highest concentration (70-75%) but even in that region I think secession would be difficult. Many of the oligarchs come from that part of the country, and they know their control of the country is much stronger t
In other oblasts, the situation is split more on an urban/rural basis, with the cities being predominantly Russian and the rural areas being predominantly Ukrainian. Kirovograd is a very strong example of that, and also Odessa to some extent.
I don't mean to preclude a split, either. There are also differences in the economy of the South/East and the West. The former is more heavily industrialised, where as the West is less developed and more focused on agriculture and services.
(03-08-2014 02:45 PM)Big Nilla Wrote: Also, will Russia completely turn off oil/gas pipelines on the mainland of Ukraine or still use all or some of them once South Stream is going?
I don't think Russia will continue to use it for transit. It's an old and extremely inefficient system which consumes a lot of so-called "technical gas" just to run the pumping stations. All countries involved need to get efficiency gains out of the new pipelines to start recouping their capital costs.
Check the following.. The blue lines are potential South Stream routes. The circle is where most of Ukraine's heavy industry is located. That part of the current pipeline system will still operate near full capacity even if much of the rest of the network is shut down.
The Slovak and Hungarian legs have been modernised, and once South Stream goes active, the plan is to reverse the flow of those pipelines. Eastern Slovakia and Eastern Hungary are quite industrialised. A few large smelters and other heavy industry operate in that area.
Where are you getting your numbers. Donetsk city, according to Wikipedia, for example:
Quote:The current nationality structure of the Donetsk City Municipality is as follows:
Russians: 493,392 people, 48.15%
Ukrainians: 478,041 people, 46.65%
Russia does not have absolute dominance in Crimea either.
It is as if people accept the pro-Russian version of the facts, and begin their thinking there (e.g. the country is split 50/50, etc.)
There could be 90% Ukrainians in an oblast and they would want to succeed if they are Russian culture. Its based on culture NOT the so called ethnicity statistic. In fact as mentioned a Ukrainian, Russian and Bela-Russian is the same ethnicity.That being said since so many are used to be in Ukraine majority don't want to succeed..but they do want a president that represents them and isn't a Western Nationalist!
Those media statistic make no sense.The designation is part of a gov't segregation and identification project.
The Western Ukrainians at least can be said to have their own unique culture but I THINK to be designated as an ethnicity it takes a few more variables.
Its like saying a an American Hispanic who grew up in some white suburb would want to live in Chile because he is Hispanic. But if he is American why the fuck would he identify with them?
Eastern Ukrainians share most of the common ethnicity factors that a Russian does according to wiki.( cultural heritage, ancestry, history, homeland, language (dialect), or ideology, and with symbolic systems such as religion, mythology and ritual, cuisine, dressing style, physical appearance, etc.)
in fact they share 99%... but Western Ukrainians are different in language spoken,appearance and dress even(east is hotter), culture and religion among other factors.
Sorry to sound irritated but how many times can me, Dave and a bunch of others say this? Its getting to feel like herding cats here
Seriously if I call my Ukrainian wife a Russian she doesn't mind(she takes it as a compliment). However she will call me Russian(Russian-american)..but technically since before my family immigrated, they lived in Ukraine..one could even call some of my ancestry Ukrainian(a town in Ukraine is named after my family name).
This is what happens when you have a country formed that spent most of history as an unformed nation.There is a lack of identity.I suspect only those 25 and under might even have a full Ukrainian identity since those before then grew up in USSR,
Ok. I will stop throwing out Wikipedia facts and arguments against the traditional Russian view of Ukraine because it is not useful, fruitful here. And I don't want to be a dick.
And I will admit to "associating" almost exclusively with the under 25 set. They have firm "convictions". It has obviously colored my sense of the country.
The ethnic issue...is like mentioned akin to Hitler thinking Jews are a different race and Slavs also.Heck most Jews aren't even an ethnic group(you know the difference right?Jewish Russian and Russian jew).
In the American revolution much of the fighting was actually done Anglo Saxon vs Anglo Saxon(they even both often had Brit nationalities).
I get annoyed when the Western media uses the Ethnicity term. They do that because they think of Ukraine like Yugoslavia which actually was an ethnic division.
Ukrainians vs Russians is family vs family. Winston Churchill played the cousin card to try to get USA into WW2... altogether as % of numbers we had more Aryans than Anglo ancestry at that time.
Don't beat your self over it since I wouldn't take seriously polls done on facebook in America either... since those active tend to be young(i don't even use social networking) and even deviants/alternatives. Successful folks I know have better things to do than playing on Facebook..see my point?
Young start out liberal but often get more conservative as older. If you notice its always the young protesting in America...then 20 years later they don't even believe what they were protesting about.
The problem is there is an assumption that those same under 25 will continue to be LIBERAL... but I THINK other wise. Those same liberals selling black market jeans during perestroika are now conservative.
Someone under 25 will only have lived in Ukraine and think of themselves as Ukrainian. However the problem of identity comes up.. because there is 2 UKRAINEs.
Therefore you can be a loyal Ukrainian and all but still have different views based on where you grew up.
However many of those young Ukrainians are also victims of Yushchenkos Ukrainian project... he basically pushed Ukrainian language and culture on the young. I call it being victims because they were taught things that went against many of the things their families fought and died for. Also Yushcenko himself was full of shit and pretended to be a nationalist(same thing Tymoshenko is doing). He admitted later he didn't believe any of that crap and that Ukrainian language is redneck language. He even made sure his son went to Russian language school.
Nationalists believe in Banderas and a host of other characters that Odessa and the East consider HIM enemies and traitors.It doesn't make them any less Ukrainian but it shows a cultural difference.
Historically people will kill each other other religion and cultural difference more than even for nationality.
Many pro Russain might be anti-Putin now after the invasion but that isn't going to change their culture. They are still going to speak Russain, like Russain movies and go to Russain church. They also aren't wanting closer ties to West at Russia's expense. In 2012 poll showed only 1 out of 6 eastern and southern Ukrainians wanted EU pact(only 50% in the west).
NATO membership I think was in 2007 around 15%.
PS. @Rag... you remember you asked a Russain guy what he thought of Putin?
Well a more fair question would to be "what do you think about politicians?"
i bet you money that they would claim all are criminals and thief's. You think the Brooklyn Russians believe in paying taxes and don't think USA gov't is full of thieves?
One of the reasons Brooklyn has the highest car insurance is because of them scamming the system. Almost all the doctors here rip of medicare and my neighborhood doesn't have a large supermarket because the Russians kept tripping on Tomatos and suing.
Our people are con artists..so makes sense the gov't would be also lol.Ones gov't reflects the citizen.