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James Kunstler and Peak Oil
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EvanWilson Offline
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Post: #226
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 04:27 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  If it's too expensive, then why is it so cheap?

It is expensive because the companies doing oil shale drilling are borrowing all kind of money against the oil reserves to get it out of the ground. Another problem is that the estimate oil reserves and recoverable oil is almost always over estimated on wells.

I remember a number of oil companies telling every prior to well completion they expected 400 to 600 boe per day, and usually coming in at about half of that. As if that was not bad enough, oil shale well have a step decline so after 3 to 5 years, the well is basically 'done' and may even get capped because it is not worth pumping anymore.

It is cheap, to the end consumer, because the companies and other oil producing countries are all in trouble in that they need every dollar possible to either keep up government spending or bringing in revenue to service the debt that was borrowed to get the oil out of the ground.
02-08-2019 12:24 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #227
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 11:16 PM)---- Wrote:  
(02-06-2019 10:59 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  In this sense everything is renewable, oil, gas, coal were once biomass


Yes, but natural gas renews faster than coal or oil because the methane gas is released immediately upon the decomposition of the biomass. The biomass for coal and oil must be subjected to tremendous pressure and heat underground for millions of years before it turns into coal and oil. This is why it is also possible to extract methane from landfills because it is released immediately when the decomposition of the biomass begins.

You're comparing methane from landfills the size of a city block, with natural gas deposits the size of small countries... Landfill methane operations are not scalable, they can't provide anything close to the 32% power production that natural gas occupies today.

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02-08-2019 12:36 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #228
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 12:24 PM)EvanWilson Wrote:  It is expensive because the companies doing oil shale drilling are borrowing all kind of money against the oil reserves to get it out of the ground.

Of course you'd borrow against the oil reserves. An oil well is an asset with a high up-front cost and a long term return. How else would you do it?

Quote:Another problem is that the estimate oil reserves and recoverable oil is almost always over estimated on wells. I remember a number of oil companies telling every prior to well completion they expected 400 to 600 boe per day, and usually coming in at about half of that. As if that was not bad enough, oil shale well have a step decline so after 3 to 5 years, the well is basically 'done' and may even get capped because it is not worth pumping anymore.

This would mean that the entire oil industry is engaged in widespread fraud against its investors. And not just a little fraud, but inflating the expected returns of a well by 2x, which is absolutely massive. This fraud is so well-known that you, a random guy on a message board, are aware of it, but none of these high-powered investors, with millions or billions of dollars on the line, have noticed this, and they continue to blindly throw money at oil companies?
02-08-2019 12:37 PM
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Post: #229
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Oil guy: We'll get 2 billion barrels out of this well for sure, pardners! Yeeeeehaw!
Investors: Can we have minute please, Mr Eastwayneswood?
Oil guy: Sure thing, buckaroos!

Investor1: He says 2 billion barrels but they always double it.
Investor2: Will we still turn a massive profit on 1 billion barrels?
Investor3: Fuck yes.
Investor1: It's a go then.

Investors: Mr Eastwayneswood, you have a deal.

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02-08-2019 12:43 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #230
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Demand and supply curves do not apply to things in fixed supply. Oil is now such a thing. Therefore, in the current situation just small additional demand (or small supply removal) is required to push oil higher, for a time being.
At the moment it is being attempted to push oil price higher by taking down Venezuela, Libya, soon Iran, and part of Saudi output.
Volatility of oil price means also that oil has been already decoupled from the greater economical cycle, oil will never again push general economy up, only down. Overall price trend for oil is down.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 03:54 PM by Kaligula.)
02-08-2019 03:40 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #231
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 03:40 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  Demand and supply curves do not apply to things in fixed supply. Oil is now such a thing. Therefore, in the current situation just small additional demand (or small supply removal) is required to push oil higher.

Dead wrong, you keep making the same mistake. The supply
of accessible oil is constantly growing, the technology is changing
fast and allowing us to tap into ever greater supply sources.

This is the reality:

[Image: 8330919336_74b5db78f3_b.jpg]

Look at the size of that Siberian monster:

[Image: fig1map_large.jpg]

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(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 04:36 PM by 911.)
02-08-2019 04:01 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #232
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
There is neither shale oil nor shale gas in Poland. It was a great fad in Poland a few years ago, but then they drilled a couple of wells and since then Poles do not hear about shale anymore.

I presume that the rest of your map has similar level of imprecision.

"Siberian monster" is just Western Siberian oil basin, the main oil province of Russia, running out just now, by the way.
Siberia has no rail there. Just planes, pipelines, and trucks. Impossible to scale up any labour-intensive drilling like shale.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 04:22 PM by Kaligula.)
02-08-2019 04:12 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #233
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 04:12 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  There is neither shale oil nor shale gas in Poland. It was a great fad in Poland a few years ago, but then they drilled a couple of wells and since then Poles do not hear about shale anymore.

I presume that the rest of your map has similar level of imprecision.

After 30 seconds of google searching, I found that the reason they're not drilling for shale oil in Poland isn't because the initial reports were wrong, but because there's SO MUCH SHALE OIL OUT THERE FOR SO CHEAP that they just can't make any money off the shale they have. Nobody wanted to bother financing the construction of wells, because there's so much cheap oil out there that it's not profitable.

Quote:“We have been looking for a partner who could finance exploration works in Szczawno and Gdańsk W. for the last four years but we haven’t found one,” Paweł Chałupka, managing director at San Leon Energy Poland, told Puls Biznesu. “Oil prices have dropped and investors have diverted their attention to conventional gas reserves...

Again, this was a 30 second google search for "shale oil poland". Don't just talk out of your ass without doing basic research first.
02-08-2019 04:23 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #234
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 04:23 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:12 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  There is neither shale oil nor shale gas in Poland. It was a great fad in Poland a few years ago, but then they drilled a couple of wells and since then Poles do not hear about shale anymore.

I presume that the rest of your map has similar level of imprecision.

After 30 seconds of google searching, I found that the reason they're not drilling for shale oil in Poland isn't because the initial reports were wrong, but because there's SO MUCH SHALE OIL OUT THERE FOR SO CHEAP that they just can't make any money off the shale they have. Nobody wanted to bother financing the construction of wells, because there's so much cheap oil out there that it's not profitable.

Quote:“We have been looking for a partner who could finance exploration works in Szczawno and Gdańsk W. for the last four years but we haven’t found one,” Paweł Chałupka, managing director at San Leon Energy Poland, told Puls Biznesu. “Oil prices have dropped and investors have diverted their attention to conventional gas reserves...

Again, this was a 30 second google search for "shale oil poland". Don't just talk out of your ass without doing basic research first.

Why they have been drilling in USA during last 4 years?
Why the guy in Poland could not find anyone to drill a few exploration wells? Maybe because there is not much to explore...? You don't expect seriously a company guy to say the truth, do you...?
02-08-2019 04:34 PM
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glugger Offline
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Post: #235
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
That's right, the (((oil guys))) are hiding the truth about oil! (((They))) don't want you to know!

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02-08-2019 04:51 PM
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Post: #236
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Quote:Why the guy in Poland could not find anyone to drill a few exploration wells? Maybe because there is not much to explore...? You don't expect seriously a company guy to say the truth, do you...?

Well, that's certainly convenient.
"This chart show's there plenty of oil available across the world."
"The chart is lying! The fact that there's no oil fields in Poland proves it!"
"This link shows that there's no oil fields in Poland because oil is so cheap that it's just not profitable."
"The link is lying!"
02-08-2019 04:53 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #237
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 04:53 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
Quote:Why the guy in Poland could not find anyone to drill a few exploration wells? Maybe because there is not much to explore...? You don't expect seriously a company guy to say the truth, do you...?

Well, that's certainly convenient.
"This chart show's there plenty of oil available across the world."
"The chart is lying! The fact that there's no oil fields in Poland proves it!"
"This link shows that there's no oil fields in Poland because oil is so cheap that it's just not profitable."
"The link is lying!"
Cheap oil is 10-20$ barrel, ok?
You can still get low cost oil in Middle East.
They did not find Middle East conditions in Poland. Or elsewhere, for that matter.

BTW, you are obnoxious, pretending to not understand simple things.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 05:07 PM by Kaligula.)
02-08-2019 05:05 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #238
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Kaligula, about the map above, there are large shale oil deposits in eastern Canada that don't show on it.

With the current world oil reseerves around 1,600 billion barrels, and the current consumption rate of 100M barrels per day, we have an annual consumption of 360M barrels, so about 1 B every 3 years, which translates to about 400 years of oil left.

Basically, oil is a relatively cheap and accessible resource that can power humanity for generations to come. I think the reason Big Oil has lined up behind the global warming hoax is that this is a way to artificially throttle the supply of a near endless commodity. The owners of big oil are tribes like the Rockefellers, who have long become banker oligarchs, and to them artificially created markets like the carbon trade market represent trillion dollar financial opportunities, as are "green" energies which they also dominate. Furthermore, the banksters as oligarchs can impose taxes and further fleece the middle class.

This is covered really well in this James Corbett documentary, one of his best works, and one of the best documentaries made in the last decade, a must-see:





This is the angle that leftists don't understand, they believe that evil big oil is the main barrier against global warming regulation schemes, when in fact they're fully on board.

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(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 05:47 PM by 911.)
02-08-2019 05:36 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #239
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 05:36 PM)911 Wrote:  Kaligula, about the map above, there are large shale oil deposits in eastern Canada that don't show on it.

With the current world oil reseerves around 1,600 billion barrels, and the current consumption rate of 100M barrels per day, we have an annual consumption of 360M barrels, so about 1 B every 3 years, which translates to about 400 years of oil left.

Basically, oil is a relatively cheap and accessible resource that can power humanity for generations to come. I think the reason Big Oil has lined up behind the global warming hoax is that this is a way to artificially throttle the supply of a near endless commodity. The owners of big oil are tribes like the Rockefellers, who have long become banker oligarchs, and to them artificially created markets like the carbon trade market represent trillion dollar financial opportunities, as are "green" energies which they also dominate. Furthermore, the banksters as oligarchs can impose taxes and further fleece the middle class.

This is covered really well in this James Corbett documentary, one of his best works, and one of the best documentaries made in the last decade, a must-see:





This is the angle that leftists don't understand, they believe that evil big oil is the main barrier against global warming regulation schemes, when in fact they're fully on board.

Most of oil is produced by national oil companies, not "Big Oil" (Chevron, Total, BP, Shell, and others).
Why would Big Oil suddenly decide to earn money by artificially throttling supply instead increasing it? If they could increase it, they could earn 140$ per barrel, as 2008 showed. It doesn't make sense, sorry. Too complicated for Ockham razor.
02-09-2019 02:27 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #240
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 12:37 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 12:24 PM)EvanWilson Wrote:  It is expensive because the companies doing oil shale drilling are borrowing all kind of money against the oil reserves to get it out of the ground.

Of course you'd borrow against the oil reserves. An oil well is an asset with a high up-front cost and a long term return. How else would you do it?

Quote:Another problem is that the estimate oil reserves and recoverable oil is almost always over estimated on wells. I remember a number of oil companies telling every prior to well completion they expected 400 to 600 boe per day, and usually coming in at about half of that. As if that was not bad enough, oil shale well have a step decline so after 3 to 5 years, the well is basically 'done' and may even get capped because it is not worth pumping anymore.

This would mean that the entire oil industry is engaged in widespread fraud against its investors. And not just a little fraud, but inflating the expected returns of a well by 2x, which is absolutely massive. This fraud is so well-known that you, a random guy on a message board, are aware of it, but none of these high-powered investors, with millions or billions of dollars on the line, have noticed this, and they continue to blindly throw money at oil companies?

It is simple. Oil industry basically believed in higher oil prices when they took loans. Oil may be collateral, but its final price is set by general economy.
02-09-2019 02:40 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #241
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 04:23 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:12 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  There is neither shale oil nor shale gas in Poland. It was a great fad in Poland a few years ago, but then they drilled a couple of wells and since then Poles do not hear about shale anymore.

I presume that the rest of your map has similar level of imprecision.

After 30 seconds of google searching, I found that the reason they're not drilling for shale oil in Poland isn't because the initial reports were wrong, but because there's SO MUCH SHALE OIL OUT THERE FOR SO CHEAP that they just can't make any money off the shale they have. Nobody wanted to bother financing the construction of wells, because there's so much cheap oil out there that it's not profitable.

Quote:“We have been looking for a partner who could finance exploration works in Szczawno and Gdańsk W. for the last four years but we haven’t found one,” Paweł Chałupka, managing director at San Leon Energy Poland, told Puls Biznesu. “Oil prices have dropped and investors have diverted their attention to conventional gas reserves...

Again, this was a 30 second google search for "shale oil poland". Don't just talk out of your ass without doing basic research first.


Why not put some of your own skin in the game, as Nassim Taleb likes to say, by giving Paweł Chałupka your own dollars so he can finally drill his wells...?!
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 02:45 AM by Kaligula.)
02-09-2019 02:43 AM
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kazz Offline
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Post: #242
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
delete
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02-09-2019 03:45 AM
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Post: #243
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 04:01 PM)911 Wrote:  Look at the size of that Siberian monster:

[Image: fig1map_large.jpg]

Not saying it's wrong (or right), but in general if you want to understand russia it's helpful to look at maps such as this one Smile

[Image: 4e36e3d0ecad041533000006-480-360.jpg]

The orange rightmost basin is probably even bigger, but exploitation will not be possible until hell unfreezes over.
Which might just happen some day, but we'll have bigger problems by then.
02-09-2019 05:58 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #244
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
To say something uplifting, for a change:

https://karsteneig.no/2017/11/where-was-...ll-poland/

Poland was the first country in the world to start producing oil. Poland peaked already before WWII. But we still produce oil, domestic production of conventional oil provides 5% of Polish oil demand. Production costs of this domestic oil are around 30$ per barrel.

Since only 5% of oil is used by industry other than transport, Poland at least can be sure to have enough oil to produce medicines and other necessary stuff.

In the film below you can see cisterns signed "K.u.K Hafen Pola" [The Imperial and Royal Port Pola] at the end of film. Poland was providing Austro-Hungarian navy with necessary oil Wink

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTbEEl1h...3Gr2L9e51a

PS. Pola was the main base of Austro-Hungarian navy.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 06:23 AM by Kaligula.)
02-09-2019 06:22 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #245
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
https://peakoil.com/production/king-oil-...ent-321809

How we know that the oil age is ending:

1) There is now not a single producer on the planet replacing the reserves that they are extracting. What developed reserves that are now being removed are all that will ever exist with the present price structure.

2) The price has declined by 52% in the last 3 years.

3) Refinery yields have declined 32% in the last 12 years. In 2005 it required 1.08 barrels of crude to produce a barrel of finished product; in 2016 it required 1.62 barrels. As the cost of crude is 85% of a refiners operating cost the price of finished products can not increase in a market that is already massively over supplied. As yield continues to decline the price of crude must fall to compensate.

4) World inventories of raw crude, and finished product continue to build.
5) A review of the Profit and Loss Statements of the eight largest US producers show that the average US producer in 2016 lost money on operations.

6) The petroleum industry has seen its asset value decline by $59 trillion since the production energy half way point was reached in 2012.

7) In 2016 the industry did not generate enough free cash flow to pay the interest on its $2.5 trillion in debt.

8) The thermodynamics of the process, as outlined by the Etp Model, indicate that at a production energy cost of 99,400 BTU per gallon the process must stop. In 2017 it reached 80,100 BTU per gal.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
02-09-2019 06:55 AM
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Post: #246
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 12:36 PM)911 Wrote:  You're comparing methane from landfills the size of a city block, with natural gas deposits the size of small countries... Landfill methane operations are not scalable, they can't provide anything close to the 32% power production that natural gas occupies today.

Landfill methane operations do not need to comprise a large percentage of the energy production since the natural gas deposits that are being drilled by energy companies also renew quickly because of the rapid release of methane when biomass decomposes.
02-09-2019 07:10 AM
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Post: #247
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Oil cannot be stopped or reduced in supply. To do such a move would destroy the economies I'm sure.
02-09-2019 07:10 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #248
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 07:10 AM)---- Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 12:36 PM)911 Wrote:  You're comparing methane from landfills the size of a city block, with natural gas deposits the size of small countries... Landfill methane operations are not scalable, they can't provide anything close to the 32% power production that natural gas occupies today.

Landfill methane operations do not need to comprise a large percentage of the energy production since the natural gas deposits that are being drilled by energy companies also renew quickly because of the rapid release of methane when biomass decomposes.

Your post doesn't address my point, the fact that landfill gas are small local powerplants that aren't economically competitive with conventional natural gas without subsidies, that's why it is a marginal source of electricity today.

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02-09-2019 02:18 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #249
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 05:58 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:01 PM)911 Wrote:  Look at the size of that Siberian monster:

[Image: fig1map_large.jpg]

Not saying it's wrong (or right), but in general if you want to understand russia it's helpful to look at maps such as this one Smile

[Image: 4e36e3d0ecad041533000006-480-360.jpg]

The orange rightmost basin is probably even bigger, but exploitation will not be possible until hell unfreezes over.
Which might just happen some day, but we'll have bigger problems by then.

"Permafrost" means that the top few hundred meters
are frozen. This does not impede oil extraction in much
of Siberia, wherever oil is below the frozen surface.
On average in the Permian Basin oil is about 1km deep.

I would guess it would actually be easier to operate
in permafrost regions over a solid top, as opposed
to the mud soup that slightly warmer northern areas
turn into in summertime.

λ ό γ ο ς
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 02:35 PM by 911.)
02-09-2019 02:34 PM
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Post: #250
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 02:34 PM)911 Wrote:  
(02-09-2019 05:58 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:01 PM)911 Wrote:  Look at the size of that Siberian monster:

[Image: fig1map_large.jpg]

Not saying it's wrong (or right), but in general if you want to understand russia it's helpful to look at maps such as this one Smile

[Image: 4e36e3d0ecad041533000006-480-360.jpg]

The orange rightmost basin is probably even bigger, but exploitation will not be possible until hell unfreezes over.
Which might just happen some day, but we'll have bigger problems by then.

"Permafrost" means that the top few hundred meters
are frozen. This does not impede oil extraction in much
of Siberia, wherever oil is below the frozen surface.
On average in the Permian Basin oil is about 1km deep.

I would guess it would actually be easier to operate
in permafrost regions over a solid top, as opposed
to the mud soup that slightly warmer northern areas
turn into in summertime.

You need a lot of water to do fracking. Water, not ice.

http://energyskeptic.com/2017/permafrost...xtraction/

Besides, permafrost is not really good for construction of anything, as it fluctuates on the surface, melting and freezing again. If you build something directly upon it, permafrost will start to melt due to increased heat in place.
Generally, anything more permanent in such conditions should be build on piles.
You are from Canada and you don't know it?!
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 03:28 PM by Kaligula.)
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