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James Kunstler and Peak Oil
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #151
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
What was the hope of the internet age anyway ?
For me it was the mentor's manifesto, which I discovered 10 years late when I first got internet to begin with :
http://phrack.org/issues/7/3.html

Yup, it failed to materialize that's for sure Sad
02-01-2019 10:21 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #152
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 10:21 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  What was the hope of the internet age anyway ?
For me it was the mentor's manifesto, which I discovered 10 years late when I first got internet to begin with :
http://phrack.org/issues/7/3.html

Yup, it failed to materialize that's for sure Sad
Viral self-organization of people, which in turn would release some explosion of creativity, which in turn would solve all world problems. That was the dream.
Citizens science, citizen politics etc... The drive to scan every book and put it on the net, like somewhere there were millions prospective readers who just couldn't find their way to library. The drive to transparency in politics by placing all documents on the net; the fate of Wikileaks shows how it ends. Nevertheless Assange was shaped by exactly this early internet culture, and Wikileaks embodies this early hope that "knowledge changes people, you just must make it free."
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 11:31 AM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 10:34 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #153
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 01:06 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  I don’t follow the peak oil stuff closely, but Kunstler’s “Clusterfuck Nation” blog is good reading.

Kunstler is an old school liberal, and he dislikes the SJW type crazy leftists.

That's his blog banner, kind of sums up his boomer doomer dogma:

[Image: Kunstler-Logo-2-res72-final-e1372906270122.png]

Turns out the guy has a BA in theater from SUNY, no technical credentials. He's a story teller, not an analyst or some kind of based futurologist.

We have at least a century of oil, and about 3 to 5 centuries of coal. You can run cars and planes on coal-derived synthetic fuel. As a matter of fact, Germany run its war machine on coal-derived synthetic fuel, whose quality was so good it powered its jets:




“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
02-01-2019 11:22 AM
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Post: #154
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
To realize that the internet culture has changed, read a book on Assange ("Inside Wikileaks") by a former German Wikileaks member, Daniel Domscheit-Berg. Even taking into account his typically German solipsism (deeply harboured conviction than NOW, AT LAST, THE GERMAN CULTURE IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD), and typically German love of nature (obsession with opening windows everywhere to keep the air FRESH), no hacker brought up in this older culture would ever write things like "If I were Assange, I would just turn up at the police station. I trust in our independent judiciary".
After leaving Wikileaks Daniel Domscheit-Berg announced his project of improved leaks service, Openleaks, if I remember well. I have never heard about it again. But you realize reading the book that he does not have an ego stamina at all to lead any charge against TPTB.

The older internet culture was a culture of anarchy, essentially people against state. The new culture is just to work together with the state (or international system) to quash enemies of the Good.
Treating Assange as they do, TPTB ensured that no one will follow Wikileaks and the anarchic spirit of internet will fade.

As the recent saying sums up the disappointment of Internet age: "You promised us flights to Mars, you gave us Facebook".
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 11:45 AM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 11:24 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #155
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 01:06 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  I don’t follow the peak oil stuff closely, but Kunstler’s “Clusterfuck Nation” blog is good reading.

Kunstler is an old school liberal, and he dislikes the SJW type crazy leftists.

If you would like the doomer perspective, this is a good explanation of our conundrum:

https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/looking-down...d7eda9c3b0

https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/looking-down...25dfb4cc6a

https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/how-is-an-oi...9218da1ce0

https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/ofdks-fallin...6566f1b913

https://medium.com/@GeeeBee/the-tooth-fa...8cd4341189
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 12:39 PM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 12:16 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #156
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Your link says the world is going to stop relying on oil in THREE YEARS...

[Image: 1*hN_qOx365sixTvgDEEo7fQ.png]

Laugh3

This "study" probably dates from 2012, so they've placed their end of the oil world prediction ten years later. You should have picked a more recent "study" with a safe date, like 2030.

This is the kind of bullshit doomers always pull, that the end of the world is going to happen in 10, 12, 15 or 20 years, but they rarely get called out when their predictions fail miserably.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.co...mp;amp;f=1]

Millennials like that Capitol Hill bartender have carried the torch from boomer doomer, here you have little hollywood homoglobo shithead Ellen Page putting the new intersectional spin on end of worldism:

Quote:Actress Ellen Page appeared on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Thursday to sound the alarm about global warming and “environmental racism,” claiming that the world was going to end in just about a decade.

“I just want to say, too, people, particularly the most marginalized people and particularly people in the world that have nothing to do with this are the ones suffering the most currently, including in Canada, including the environmental racism that’s happening in Canada, including the province I’m from,” Ellen Page said.

“What’s environmental racism?” Stephen Colbert asked.

“It disproportionally affects people of color, whether it’s like, the disproportionate amount of landfills that are placed next to communities of people of color in Nova Scotia, or whether it’s about a pulp mill in [Nova Scotia] that’s been there forever and has destroyed the environment and the land of First Nations people, you know, it’s like, this is something that’s happening, and it’s happening to the most marginalized people, and we need to be talking about it, it’s really serious. We have been told…that, by 2030, the world as we know it, that’s it. That’s it,” the 31-year-old claimed.

“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
02-01-2019 01:51 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #157
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Kaligula, how much money do you have in oil futures right now, as a percentage of your net worth?

It's gotta be a decent amount, right? I mean you may lose money in the short term, but if you're right and oil is going to something crazy like 500$ a barrel, you could just keep absorbing the losses until one day you're rich beyond your wildest dreams.

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02-01-2019 02:17 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #158
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
@ 911

The links I provided are basically based on the Hill's Group study, which was a first study of oil depletion not in terms of geology and economy, but in terms of thermodynamics, namely the second law of thermodynamics (enthropy law).

The original study, made in 2013, arrived at 2031 as a date of "dead state" (defined as the situation when the entire energy you get from a barrel of oil goes into oil recovery process).

The author you are now criticizing arrived at 2022 instead of 2031 by introducing additional energy inefficiency on the site of a final consumer. But he might have some additional reasons to claim earlier date, as his page is also an advertisement for some business idea. Nevertheless he writes much more clearly for readers without background in physics and mathematics like Kunstler and his audience. But as a reader with such a background, I consider Hill's report legit in the sense that his theoretical model is sound (don't know anything about numbers he uses), even though going at the problem from the entropy perspective is like a deployment of a really big gun here. Such problems are hard to solve, he may have made mistakes. He bases his study on a kind of index values, so the entire thing depends on whether he has chosen his indexes right.

A later than 2031 year as the last one is dependent either on growing reserves of cheap oil or growing energy efficiency of our civilization.
Well, if you like math, read the original study:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_002.htm

I know there was a lot of criticism directed at Hill (as you may expect, mainly centered around his understanding of enthropy), but I have found pretty ominous that both he and Duncan (of the Olduvai Theory) came to ~2030 as the last year of the industrial civilization.

However, the main argument speaking for Hill is that his model had predicted falling oil prices before they started to fall. Until then everyone had thought the prices will be always rising on scarcity.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 03:09 PM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 02:20 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #159
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 10:34 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  Viral self-organization of people, which in turn would release some explosion of creativity, which in turn would solve all world problems. That was the dream.

So a better communication medium would make more geniuses ?
That was never very realistic I'd say.

(02-01-2019 02:20 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  The original study arrived at 2031 as a date of "dead state" (defined as the moment when the entire energy you get from a barrel of oil goes into oil recovery process).

You are aware that this is not going to stop oil extraction, right ?
02-01-2019 02:34 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #160
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
What they didn't know in 2021 when that study went out is this:

[Image: USA-SHALE-OPEC-B.jpg]


They've assumed that technology won't change, which turns out is a very clumsy assumption.

“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 02:38 PM by 911.)
02-01-2019 02:37 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #161
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 02:34 PM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  
(02-01-2019 10:34 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  Viral self-organization of people, which in turn would release some explosion of creativity, which in turn would solve all world problems. That was the dream.


So a better communication medium would make more geniuses ?
That was never very realistic I'd say.


(02-01-2019 02:20 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  The original study arrived at 2031 as a date of "dead state" (defined as the moment when the entire energy you get from a barrel of oil goes into oil recovery process).

You are aware that this is not going to stop oil extraction, right ?

1. Not the communication per se, but availability of knowledge was the point. Someone had this cute romantic idea of forgotten geniuses, who in their spare time could save the world if we only gave them opportunity to do so. If internet age has learnt us anything, then it showed us that there are no such stranded geniuses.


2. Probably no, but it will be energy-subsidized extraction. Oil will become just an energy carrier, not an energy provider. And such an extraction is limited by the size of subsidy we could mount. Also, the oil extraction process usually uses a lot of diesel, literally. Oil fields are often far away offshore fields etc. Often there is no electricity there.
That concerns, of course, any new activity. Even after 2031 some oil in the Middle East will still flow without investments, but that will be of course on the virtue of past energy input (past drilling). Until it stops.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 03:20 PM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 02:51 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #162
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 02:37 PM)911 Wrote:  They've assumed that technology won't change, which turns out is a very clumsy assumption.

Since energy efficiency depends on technology, then yes, better technology could give us a few years more.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 04:01 PM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 03:56 PM
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Post: #163
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Man, if I was really convinced that peak oil was real, I'd be the happiest dude on the planet.

Think of all the ways you could play it if you knew for certain that the price on a common, incredibly liquid commodity like oil was going to go up. Futures, options, shorting oil-dependent industries, etc...

I bet if I sat down for just a few hours I could come up with a plan that would make me so rich that when the collapse came and the apocalypse hit, I'd be living comfy in a giant mansion.

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02-01-2019 04:11 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #164
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 04:11 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  Man, if I was really convinced that peak oil was real, I'd be the happiest dude on the planet.

Think of all the ways you could play it if you knew for certain that the price on a common, incredibly liquid commodity like oil was going to go up. Futures, options, shorting oil-dependent industries, etc...

I bet if I sat down for just a few hours I could come up with a plan that would make me so rich that when the collapse came and the apocalypse hit, I'd be living comfy in a giant mansion.

The general price trend is DOWN. Why has OPEC just cut the output...? Maybe OPEC does not like this trend.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 04:27 PM by Kaligula.)
02-01-2019 04:24 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #165
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-01-2019 02:51 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  1. Not the communication per se, but availability of knowledge was the point. Someone had this cute romantic idea of forgotten geniuses, who in their spare time could save the world if we only gave them opportunity to do so. If internet age has learnt us anything, then it showed us that there are no such stranded geniuses.

There are, but they have their own problems.

Not sure whether the world needs saving, but clearly nobody is going to do it, it does not work like that - unless you believe that jesus is coming back someday ?

The forgotten geniuses are here, we know it and mistreat them since childhood in our school system.
So we don't help them, but with this internet they will help themselves, then come help us ? Smile

(02-01-2019 02:51 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  2. Probably no, but it will be energy-subsidized extraction. Oil will become just an energy carrier, not an energy provider. And such an extraction is limited by the size of subsidy we could mount. Also, the oil extraction process usually uses a lot of diesel, literally. Oil fields are often far away offshore fields etc. Often there is no electricity there.

There is no energy provider, I assume you know lavoisier.
We use diesel because we need torque for cheap.
Offshore fields are a bad example since this is where some put wind farms, but I get your point.
However oil is simply not replaceable in many industries.
02-02-2019 05:23 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #166
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-02-2019 05:23 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  
(02-01-2019 02:51 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  1. Not the communication per se, but availability of knowledge was the point. Someone had this cute romantic idea of forgotten geniuses, who in their spare time could save the world if we only gave them opportunity to do so. If internet age has learnt us anything, then it showed us that there are no such stranded geniuses.

There are, but they have their own problems.

Not sure whether the world needs saving, but clearly nobody is going to do it, it does not work like that - unless you believe that jesus is coming back someday ?

The forgotten geniuses are here, we know it and mistreat them since childhood in our school system.
So we don't help them, but with this internet they will help themselves, then come help us ? Smile

(02-01-2019 02:51 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  2. Probably no, but it will be energy-subsidized extraction. Oil will become just an energy carrier, not an energy provider. And such an extraction is limited by the size of subsidy we could mount. Also, the oil extraction process usually uses a lot of diesel, literally. Oil fields are often far away offshore fields etc. Often there is no electricity there.

There is no energy provider, I assume you know lavoisier.
We use diesel because we need torque for cheap.
Offshore fields are a bad example since this is where some put wind farms, but I get your point.
However oil is simply not replaceable in many industries.


1. You are right that there are no incentives for geniuses anymore, there are almost no people who have now made money on the basis of
an independent scientific discovery. It is hard time for geniuses and even internet grassroots organizing demands high social competence. Again, Assange shows limits of this approach.
http://geniusfamine.blogspot.com/

Science, too, became very state-like: dogmatic, bureaucratic and hierarchic. I think this concern was partly behind the idea of citizen science - which promotes a kind of scientific anarchism - but this idea has never got really accepted by the "professional" science.
Nevertheless, nowadays this science is like oil extraction - it provides only diminishing returns.

https://www.edge.org/conversation/john_h...-is-ending

2. I didn't mean any kind of phlogiston by energy provider, just any exoenergetic substance: coal, gas, oil, wood, whatever you can burn and get surplus heat. So after 2031, if no help comes, oil will become endonergetic, it will drain energy instead giving it.
But Lavoiser, who was guillotined by the French Revolution, is a good example that we are ready to get rid of geniuses for whatever reason; currently perhaps because they are not female enough.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2019 06:15 AM by Kaligula.)
02-02-2019 05:51 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #167
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
It seems that global cooling is our fate. Global warming theory cannot give answer why temperature fluctuated before the current industrial CO2 release. Moreover, it seems strange that man-made chimneys could be more powerful than the great ball of fire we are all orbiting.

John Casey theory of climate as a function of Sun activity provides a simpler solution. Solar minimum is coming.

The coming solar minimum seems to be accompanied by changing magnetic poles of Earth, which on the other hand would explain why solar minima tend to be accompanied by earthquakes and volcanoes eruptions. Since Earth's core is made of melted iron and nickel, the change in magnetism obviously would change energy flows deep down. This phenomenon would find its expression in earthquakes and volcanoes eruption on the Earth's surface.

The history somehow confirms this theory: during the so-called Little Ice Age (18th century), Lisbon and Portugal experienced the greatest earthquake and tsunami in history, in 1755. Recently, it was Japan and Fukushima.

My personal observations seem to confirm the theory too: the last few years, colder, more intensive winters seem to have been on the rise in the Northern hemisphere. As I am writing this, I see pretty snowflakes dancing behind my window, just now. And few years ago I experienced my first earthquake - in Germany. Quite unusual.... I would say.

So why is the global warming theory pushed so obsessively by the elites?
Peak oil seems to be the only rational explanation.
In other words: if you are against global warming, you must be for peak oil.


Is 2030 going to be a year of some catastrophic convergence...?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-3...ld-get-bad

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/149077...bl_vppi_i1

https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Winter-Causi...B015VN583Y
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 10:39 AM by Kaligula.)
02-03-2019 10:01 AM
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Post: #168
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
The invention of hydraulic fracturing in order to extract shale oil and the invention of the process for converting bitumen to oil in the US in 2009 has greatly increased the supply of oil. The supply of shale oil is estimated to last for 250 years and the supply of bituminous oil is also estimated to last for 250 years so that is a total of 500 years worth of oil now readily available and this stabilized the price of oil from that time up to the present at 1$/l and it also made the US the leading supplier of oil and gave it energy independence. Then in 2013, Ford introduced motor vehicles that use a chassis made of boron steel which is lighter and stronger than carbon steel. Because this greatly reduced the weight of motor vehicles, its average fuel economy increased from 13km/l to 27km/l which resulted in its fuel consumption being cut by 50%. This doubles the duration of the oil supply to 1,000 years. The pollution emitted by motor vehicles and other machines that use combustion engines has been greatly decreased with the introduction in the US by 1975 of the catalytic converter that reduces carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, and sulfur oxide emissions by 90%. The US also introduced unleaded gasoline in 1975 which uses anti-knock compounds that do not contain lead in order to make gasoline less polluting. In 2013, US oil companies further reduced emissions by introducing low sulfur diesel which has 90% less sulfur. This is done by subjecting the crude oil that has been refined into diesel to a process that removes most of its sulfur content. The extracted sulfur is then used for other applications which generates extra profit for oil and chemical companies. The next thing that needs to be done is to introduce population control so that a tremendous increase in population does not counteract the effects of these inventions in increasing the supply of oil and reducing pollution.
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02-03-2019 10:28 AM
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Post: #169
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Additionally, some on this thread say that the US has no public transit system except for road transport and this is not true. The US has high speed electric subway networks in its cities and 900 high speed double decker Superliner electric trains running through an interstate railway network that can reach a top speed of 160km/h. The US also uses multiple unit high speed diesel trains for hauling cargo that can reach 120km/h. There is also a network of SWATH hull RORO jet ships capable of reaching 107km/h and RORO hovercraft capable of reaching 137km/h running along the rivers and coastlines of the US. The US also uses STOL turboprop commuter planes for short haul flights in between nearby cities that can reach speeds of 920km/h.
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02-03-2019 11:56 AM
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Post: #170
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.

Quoted from the research overview at
https://principia-scientific.org/modern-...ng-coming/

It seems that the idea has already been around quite a while! So the elite knows.

In other news: Bye, bye arctic oil! Bye, bye Russia! Welcome.... Venezuela!
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 12:38 PM by Kaligula.)
02-03-2019 12:07 PM
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Post: #171
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Kaligua. You are operating on a very high level that requires thinking outside the box and setting aside ego. This is why you will run into conflict with ego driven small minded folks like samuelbroberts and his ilk. We can from here forth reffer to them as the peanut gallery.

1.The reason why oil price is decreasing and will continue decreasing over the long term (there will be swings) is the concept of energy deflation. As less available energy (eroei) after extraction costs in energy are factored, there will be less economic activity and less demand for oil. Energy deflation.lower prices. Less money for oil companies to discover and develop new production. Its a negative feedback loop.

2.The world runs on high eroei conventional oil. . shale oils are not what powers modern industrial civilization. Not all oil is equal. Were it not for low interest debt printed and flowing into the shale industry that oil would have stayed in the ground. Shale oil is a ponzi scheme and therefore not thermodynamicly relevant.

3. The grand solar minimum we are beginning to experience has terrible timing and huge implications. As we begin to see our economic system based on endless growth collapse due to declining eroei, we will also have crop failures en masse. This does not bode well.

4. As our economic system collapses and fiat currencies around the world experience sovereign debt crisis's we will see a move to gold based and crypto currencies. Food and food production will become extremely valuable.
02-03-2019 12:57 PM
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Post: #172
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 10:01 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  It seems that global cooling is our fate.

OK, so you're a peak oiler who is also a climate change denier. What little credibility you had just went out the window.

[Image: giphy.gif]

(02-03-2019 10:01 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  ...the elite knows

Yet another conspiracy theory nut. Why does the whole world have to tilt towards this?

Please drop the pretense that you're smarter than the average bear, will you? Your brain is just getting suckered into the all-too-convenient boogeymanism that so many others cling to as a crutch to avoid dealing with problems outside of human control.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 01:42 PM by questor70.)
02-03-2019 01:38 PM
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Post: #173
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 12:57 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Kaligua. You are operating on a very high level that requires thinking outside the box and setting aside ego.

[Image: bc4.jpg]
02-03-2019 01:41 PM
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Post: #174
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
2 more members of the peanut gallery. Nothing of value to share.

Such a fragile ego .
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 01:49 PM by Iconoclast007.)
02-03-2019 01:48 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
International Playboy
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Posts: 4,344
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Post: #175
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Iconoclast, I wanna know how you square a gigantic spike in the price of energy with a rise in demand for ultra-energy-intensive bitcoin.

Datasheets: Stretches for Better Posture, Sous-Vide Cooking
02-03-2019 02:14 PM
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