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James Kunstler and Peak Oil
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #176
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 01:38 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-03-2019 10:01 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  It seems that global cooling is our fate.

OK, so you're a peak oiler who is also a climate change denier. What little credibility you had just went out the window.

[Image: giphy.gif]

(02-03-2019 10:01 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  ...the elite knows

Yet another conspiracy theory nut. Why does the whole world have to tilt towards this?

Please drop the pretense that you're smarter than the average bear, will you? Your brain is just getting suckered into the all-too-convenient boogeymanism that so many others cling to as a crutch to avoid dealing with problems outside of human control.

1. I want to deal with problems, but if you want me to deal with problems, first I must know what problems we have. Also, already Heraclit said, panta rhei, everything changes. Problems change too.

2. A reasonable person can change his mind. A true believer cannot. Until now, I haven't even taken a position on the anthropogenic global warming. Now these new data allowed me to take a position.
There was global warming in 20th century. But it was the sun-driven warming.

3. I am the last person to be named a "conspiracy theorist". But the research has compelled me to believe that the elite has more power than allowed by an official narrative. Nevertheless I do not believe - like many true conspiracy theorists - that this power is unlimited or satanic in nature.
My impression is that the elite likes to drive society with narratives that are essentially religious in character: global warming, racism, feminism, islamophobia, multiculturalism etc. Such narratives create true believers, i.e. zealots.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 03:24 PM by Kaligula.)
02-03-2019 02:30 PM
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Iconoclast007 Offline
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Post: #177
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Samuelbroberts, Perhaps if you had read my post concerning energy deflation you would allready know that I predict a decrease in price as we accellerate into the net energy cliff. The decrease in price will be a negative feedback loop for producers. Our problem is that energy is no longer affordable for consumers at a price that is sustainable for producers.

Or perhaps it was too complicated for you to comprehend.

Bitcoin energy consumption is a big factor and will either be fixed or another, more robust solution will prevail. My comment concerned the crypto space in general.

Although your question was a poor one, I do appreciate you making the effort to pose a specific concern as opposed to resorting to name calling as others in the peanut gallery. You may even be removed from the peanut gallery eventually.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 02:39 PM by Iconoclast007.)
02-03-2019 02:35 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #178
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
So sketch this out for me.

The year is 2050. We've run into the "net energy cliff" and civilization as we know it has ended. Factories have fallen silent. Electric lighting is a thing of the past, and people are going to bed at 8:00 PM. The northern states are abandoned as there's no energy to power central heating. With no factories to make antibiotics, or transport networks to carry them to hospitals across the country, the slightest infection is now a potential death sentence.

All this, and you predict the price of power to go DOWN?

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02-03-2019 02:50 PM
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Iconoclast007 Offline
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Post: #179
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Samuelbroberts, I didnt make any of those predictions except the decreased price of oil. Dont put words into my mouth.

Yes. I did predict the price to go down and layed out the framework for my position.

Do you care to counter any of my points secificly or do you wish to continue to showcase your ignorance?
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 03:00 PM by Iconoclast007.)
02-03-2019 03:00 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #180
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
I don't think it's wise for anyone to answer you at all since you will be gone tomorrow iconoclast.
02-03-2019 03:13 PM
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Post: #181
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Only those with big egos will be gone. The wise ones like Iconoclast wil always be around, in ways too complicated for you to comprehend.

“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
02-03-2019 03:21 PM
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Post: #182
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Oberrheiner. My beef with samuelroberts and his ilk is their lack of interest in facts and analysis. They call names and belittle opinions. They ignore the points of discussion and present no backup to their claims.

That said. You inferred I will be banned. Perhaps you would like to specificly point out why you feel this to be true or perhaps you are in the same category as samuelbroberts.
02-03-2019 03:29 PM
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PapayaTapper Away
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Post: #183
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 03:29 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Oberrheiner. My beef with samuelroberts and his ilk is their lack of interest in facts and analysis. They call names and belittle opinions. They ignore the points of discussion and present no backup to their claims.

That said. You inferred I will be banned. Perhaps you would like to specificly point out why you feel this to be true or perhaps you are in the same category as samuelbroberts.

The data Im interested in is how many times youve had your ass kicked in real life. I'd guess that it closely correlates to how many times you've taken that pretentious cunty tone directly to a man's face. Id also surmise that its none because pussies like you never do.

BTW Oberrheiner implied, not inferred, that you will soon be banned.. I however infer that he is correct...dumbass

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02-03-2019 03:49 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #184
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 01:38 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-03-2019 10:01 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  It seems that global cooling is our fate.

OK, so you're a peak oiler who is also a climate change denier. What little credibility you had just went out the window.

https://principia-scientific.org/heat-fl...as-theory/

Interesting, theoretical explanation why the greenhouse effect itself may be fake in terms of thermodynamic.To be fair, the possible weak point is the presupposition that all heat transfers go by oscillation.

But the theory is so simple that I find it hard to believe that it wasn't discussed before. That nobody thought about such straightforward analogies like "Radiation from Sun is observed to burn your skin. No amount of radiation from Earth can cause sunburn."

I am starting to lose the remnants of my faith in science.... Any interaction more complicated than just between two bodies, and we are unable to really understand it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-body_problem
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 05:02 PM by Kaligula.)
02-03-2019 04:30 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #185
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 03:29 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Oberrheiner. My beef with samuelroberts and his ilk is their lack of interest in facts and analysis. They call names and belittle opinions. They ignore the points of discussion and present no backup to their claims.

That said. You inferred I will be banned. Perhaps you would like to specificly point out why you feel this to be true or perhaps you are in the same category as samuelbroberts.

Having beef after 20 posts usually gets people banned from this forum, that's all I'm saying.
I understand your frustration, but I'm too old to be upset by people who disagree with me online.

(02-03-2019 03:21 PM)911 Wrote:  Only those with big egos will be gone. The wise ones like Iconoclast wil always be around, in ways too complicated for you to comprehend.

Oh come on, you too with the kindergarten attitude now ?
What is wrong tonight, did you all sync your periods ? Smile
02-03-2019 05:09 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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Post: #186
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
@Oberrheiner, I believe 911 is operating at an elite level of speaking only those in the know like Iconolast007 would understand.

My small ego just can't comprehend that level of sarcasm!
02-03-2019 05:13 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #187
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Nothing has changed much since 2017....

   
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 04:55 AM by Kaligula.)
02-04-2019 04:45 AM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #188
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 05:13 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  @Oberrheiner, I believe 911 is operating at an elite level of speaking only those in the know like Iconolast007 would understand.

My small ego just can't comprehend that level of sarcasm!

Hmm yeah ok, maybe it was sarcasm which flew over my head, sorry for that if that's the case - my kids are killing me Smile
02-04-2019 07:19 AM
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---- Offline
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Post: #189
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(01-02-2019 11:06 AM)questor70 Wrote:  
(01-02-2019 09:19 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  what do you do if, after all, you need more working-age people?

In the short-run, robots.

A future society of fewer and fewer young people due to demographic shift where the lights stay on is ROBOTS.

Japan is already planning for that, for instance, although also fighting tooth and nail to goose the birth rates (which I don't think they should do).

The notion that US manufacturing has been stopped and that all manufacturing is outsourced to countries with cheap labor like China, or that low wage migrants are being used to work in US factories is incorrect. According to documentaries and news about manufacturing in the US, most of the factories in the US are already using robots and other types of automated systems. The industrial robot was invented in the US by George Devol in 1956 and the industrial server computers used for running automated systems were introduced in the US in the 1990's.

(02-03-2019 02:50 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  So sketch this out for me.

The year is 2050. We've run into the "net energy cliff" and civilization as we know it has ended. Factories have fallen silent. Electric lighting is a thing of the past, and people are going to bed at 8:00 PM. The northern states are abandoned as there's no energy to power central heating. With no factories to make antibiotics, or transport networks to carry them to hospitals across the country, the slightest infection is now a potential death sentence.

All this, and you predict the price of power to go DOWN?

Statistically, the rate of electricity in the US is extremely low at only 10.54 cents/KWh. The reason for this is that 63% of US electricity comes from renewable sources like hydroelectric, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic, solar-thermal, geothermal, hydrothermal, biofuels, biomass, flammable garbage and nuclear reactors which can have its fuel recycled.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1837...ince-1990/
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 09:14 AM by ----.)
02-04-2019 08:52 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #190
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
----, you remind me of all these guys who claim that Germany should have won WWII because Tiger was the best tank available at that time.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 09:37 AM by Kaligula.)
02-04-2019 09:36 AM
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Post: #191
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 09:36 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  ----, you remind me of all these guys who claim that Germany should have won WWII because Tiger was the best tank available at that time.

No, the Tiger was not the best tank, it was the Soviet T-34 because this was the first tank to use sloping armor to deflect artillery shells and suspension systems on the wheels to reduce vibrations and increase fuel economy, which gave the T-34 a range of 250km while the Tiger only had a range of 100km. The superior efficiency of the T-34 allowed it to carry the largest caliber cannon among all tanks in the 2nd World War with a caliber of 85mm.

The fastest tank on the other hand was the British Cromwell tank which had a top speed of 64km/h. It reached this speed because it was the first tank to use a V12 gasoline engine that had a supercharger to increase the amount of fuel and air going into the engine which increased the specific power density of the engine, allowing it to generate more power and propel the tank to high speeds. This tank, and all of the other British tanks were also the first to use armor piercing HEAT and HESH shells that allowed them to destroy enemy tanks like the Tiger in one hit.

The tank that was produced in the largest quantity was the M4 Sherman. 49,234 M4 Sherman Tanks were produced during the war because they were produced in moving assembly lines which were invented by Henry Ford who also produced these tanks. The M4 Shermans also used armor piercing rounds which were given by the British Army to the US Army since they were allies.

But the power of all of these tanks would pale in comparison to the BM-13 Katyusha. Introduced by the Soviet Union in 1941, the BM-13 Katyusha was the first self-propelled multiple rocket launcher in history. It fired 48 rockets simultaneously that had a diameter of 132mm, warheads weighing 42kg, and a range of 30km. Because the rockets could travel a distance that was much longer than the range of German artillery, the Soviets could shoot at the Germans without the risk of getting shot at, making the Soviet advance against the Germans completely unstoppable. Because of the size and destructive power of these rockets, a salvo of 48 rockets launched by a single BM-13 would have an impact zone of 100,000 square meters, making its power equivalent to 18 of the largest conventional cannons.
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02-04-2019 10:22 AM
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Post: #192
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 02:30 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  My impression is that the elite likes to drive society with narratives that are essentially religious in character: global warming, racism, feminism, islamophobia, multiculturalism etc. Such narratives create true believers, i.e. zealots.

What you don't realize is that "elites" are a narrative.
02-04-2019 10:36 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #193
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 10:36 AM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-03-2019 02:30 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  My impression is that the elite likes to drive society with narratives that are essentially religious in character: global warming, racism, feminism, islamophobia, multiculturalism etc. Such narratives create true believers, i.e. zealots.

What you don't realize is that "elites" are a narrative.

So you believe in elections and independent candidates with winning chances, free press and education of the electorate...?!
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 12:49 PM by Kaligula.)
02-04-2019 12:27 PM
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Post: #194
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 12:27 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  So you believe in elections and independent candidates with winning chances, free press and education of the electorate...?!

I believe we get the government we deserve. Seriously, though, I know we're on a seprate page on this. There's nothing I say that will get you to see any of this differently. By all means keep shaking your fist at illuminaughties if it makes you feel better.
02-04-2019 02:08 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #195
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 02:08 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-04-2019 12:27 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  So you believe in elections and independent candidates with winning chances, free press and education of the electorate...?!

I believe we get the government we deserve.

This is mumbo jumbo of American individualism. You are just reinforcing the myth of the just outcome which is based on
the "illusion of control" bias.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_control

This is also a way to Nazi-like social Darwinism. It is generally known that Nazis liked to put some inspiring slogans over their concentration camps, almost everybody heard about "Arbeit macht frei" in Auschwitz. But in Buchenwald it was "Jedem das Seine", "To each - his own [what he deserves]"

   
   

Yes, of course, you can always make a revolution... so if you don't, you deserve the outcome of not taking this risk.
What is generally true at the level of an individual, does not have to be true at the level of an entire society.
I am born into a complicated social system; if this system happens to be unjust, it does not mean I deserve it.

PS. I have said "elites", I have not said "Illuminati". Do not put words into my mouth.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 03:46 PM by Kaligula.)
02-04-2019 03:01 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #196
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 03:01 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  This is also a way to Nazi-like social Darwinism.

you can't have socialism (even national) and darwinism (even social), I believe you know this right ?
02-05-2019 04:28 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #197
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-05-2019 04:28 AM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  
(02-04-2019 03:01 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  This is also a way to Nazi-like social Darwinism.

you can't have socialism (even national) and darwinism (even social), I believe you know this right ?

It depends on whether you think about Nazism as socialism or corpocracy.
I choose the latter, namely integrating the state with industry.
You know that until the war Mussolini was admired by Hitler, don't you? Original fascism was Italian.
You know that SA was cut down and replaced by SS, right? With SA purge, socialist elements - so called "hamburgers" (red inside, brown outside) - were largely neutralized or removed from NSDAP. The "Lebensraum" Germans fought for, was largely for German industry, not for them. If they were really for re-enacting the true Germanic life, they should become something like Scandinavia, i.e. a nation build on independent farmers.
Actually earlier there were other ideas for 'Lebensraum', too. There was no real need for German colonization of the East, because there was a lot of untended land in Germany itself.
In 1926 in Germany there was a referendum for expropriation of aristocracy, with majority of voting people supporting the proposition.
Against were aristocracy, churches, industry, and great landowners (Junker).
More or less the same groups later supported Nazism. None of them were socialists.The outcome of referendum obviously was never put in force.
if you think about it thoroughly, Nazism happened because all other ways of reforming Germany were skillfully closed by German elites, with some help from Americans who leveraged German industry in the interwar period (hence the idea of Wall Street supporting Hitler) by lending a lot of money to it.
At the end, social Darwinism in Germany took a shape of the idea of race competition. But it was always class struggle, just obfuscated by the relentlessly discussed idea of cultural degeneracy. Likewise today, no one knows what to do about 1%, but everybody knows something about immigration. But without 1%, there would be no immigration.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expropriat...r_Republic

A cautionary tale from Polish history:
In XIV century, annexing Ukraine by Poland created rich oligarchy and thus ultimately destabilized Polish political system. So you better be careful with 'Lebensraum' and who ultimately gets it. I believe in France you had Algeria, which gave you more troubles than it was worth.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2019 06:16 AM by Kaligula.)
02-05-2019 05:21 AM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #198
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-03-2019 02:50 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  So sketch this out for me.

The year is 2050. We've run into the "net energy cliff" and civilization as we know it has ended. Factories have fallen silent. Electric lighting is a thing of the past, and people are going to bed at 8:00 PM. The northern states are abandoned as there's no energy to power central heating. With no factories to make antibiotics, or transport networks to carry them to hospitals across the country, the slightest infection is now a potential death sentence.

All this, and you predict the price of power to go DOWN?

Laugh3

He hasn't factored in the cost of having your bill delivered by the pony express.

Much like the guys that have been predicting a "6 month to a year from now" financial collapse with absolute certainty for the last ten years, you can make a lot of money selling doomsday scenarios while never admitting that there's just too much information the common plebs simply don't have access to.

Peak oil was supposed to have doomed us all to oblivion a decade ago according to many experts who bandied around all sorts of very impressive numbers and scary, authoritative graphs.

Bottom line. Nothing is happening until you see the elites flinch. If they're operating their business as usual then the status quo is a lock.

The public will judge a man by what he lifts, but those close to him will judge him by what he carries.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2019 06:14 AM by Leonard D Neubache.)
02-05-2019 06:05 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #199
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
@ Leonard


No one serious was predicting an immediate catastrophe. Even scary graphs need reading.
Peak of conventional oil was in 2005.
Since 2008 there is a state of creeping crisis in the West.
Elites are more insulated than commoners, but even they are preparing.
Empty Australia may be a good place to stay. In Europe, we have this idea of Australia as a country where people have small planes instead cars, so far away they live from each other.

https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/surviva...f6cddd0cc1

One condition of a successful escape is deception, since the others must be left behind.So I wouldn't rely on elites.
For public life, you have celebrities. But they are not elites.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2019 07:07 AM by Kaligula.)
02-05-2019 06:27 AM
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Post: #200
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-04-2019 08:52 AM)---- Wrote:  ...

Statistically, the rate of electricity in the US is extremely low at only 10.54 cents/KWh. The reason for this is that 63% of US electricity comes from renewable sources like hydroelectric, wind turbines, solar photovoltaic, solar-thermal, geothermal, hydrothermal, biofuels, biomass, flammable garbage and nuclear reactors which can have its fuel recycled.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1837...ince-1990/

Wrong.

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyourenergy.extension.co...mp;amp;f=1]


Alright, it's time to close this thread with some real industry info:

[Image: 1548348070-rs1.jpg]


U.S. Set To Pump More Oil Than Russia And Saudis Combined
charles the moderator / 1 min ago February 6, 2019

From Oilprice By Rystad Energy – Jan 24, 2019, 11:00 AM CST


In a major shift, the United States is set to produce more oil and liquids than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025.

In Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario, US liquids production is forecast to surpass 24 million barrels per day over the next six years, thereby outpacing the combined output from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

“The United States, having regained its position as the world’s top liquids producer in 2014, is poised to accelerate into a league of its own over the next six years and eclipse the collective output of its two closest rivals by 2025,” said Rystad Energy partner Artem Abramov.

Historically, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have consistently switched places at the top of the global list of liquid producers – measuring crude oil, lease condensate and plant natural gas liquids – but lately market-driven US oil activity and production has built significant momentum. The US has not seen its liquids market share exceed 50% among the “Big Three” producing nations since 1970.

“US growth potential could be slowed if oil prices slide below our base case for extended periods but, as long as average prices stay above $50, positive US production tendencies will persist,” Abramov added. Related: Saudi Arabia: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil

Rystad Energy, the independent energy research and consulting firm headquartered in Norway with offices across the globe, assumes an average WTI Cushing oil price of $58 per barrel in 2019 to 2025.

The growth in US liquids production will be driven by major shale basins such as the Permian in parts of Texas and New Mexico. Given the steep production decline rates of shale wells, consistently strong annual capital expenditure (capex) levels are needed in order to deliver on our base production forecast. This corresponds to as much as 20% growth compared to the investment level observed in the US oilpatch in 2018, while the $260 billion capex level recorded in 2014 is not expected to ever be seen again.

“Some market participants have voiced concerns about a possible depletion in resources from core parts of major liquids basins in the US. But there are no indications that such a development will occur any time soon,” Abramov noted. “While Rystad Energy generally applies a conservative approach when estimating remaining drilling inventory per acreage, even in the most mature Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, about 70% of economically recoverable resources in Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario have yet to be developed.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US...bined.html

Thanks guys.

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02-06-2019 02:17 PM
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