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James Kunstler and Peak Oil
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #201
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Wow, I didn't know that 20% of US power came from nuclear. I thought it was way less than that. That's pretty cool.

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02-06-2019 02:36 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #202
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 02:17 PM)911 Wrote:  Alright, it's time to close this thread with some real industry info:

[Image: 1548348070-rs1.jpg]


U.S. Set To Pump More Oil Than Russia And Saudis Combined
charles the moderator / 1 min ago February 6, 2019

From Oilprice By Rystad Energy – Jan 24, 2019, 11:00 AM CST


In a major shift, the United States is set to produce more oil and liquids than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025.

In Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario, US liquids production is forecast to surpass 24 million barrels per day over the next six years, thereby outpacing the combined output from Russia and Saudi Arabia.

“The United States, having regained its position as the world’s top liquids producer in 2014, is poised to accelerate into a league of its own over the next six years and eclipse the collective output of its two closest rivals by 2025,” said Rystad Energy partner Artem Abramov.

Historically, the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia have consistently switched places at the top of the global list of liquid producers – measuring crude oil, lease condensate and plant natural gas liquids – but lately market-driven US oil activity and production has built significant momentum. The US has not seen its liquids market share exceed 50% among the “Big Three” producing nations since 1970.

“US growth potential could be slowed if oil prices slide below our base case for extended periods but, as long as average prices stay above $50, positive US production tendencies will persist,” Abramov added. Related: Saudi Arabia: We’ll Pump The World’s Very Last Barrel Of Oil

Rystad Energy, the independent energy research and consulting firm headquartered in Norway with offices across the globe, assumes an average WTI Cushing oil price of $58 per barrel in 2019 to 2025.

The growth in US liquids production will be driven by major shale basins such as the Permian in parts of Texas and New Mexico. Given the steep production decline rates of shale wells, consistently strong annual capital expenditure (capex) levels are needed in order to deliver on our base production forecast. This corresponds to as much as 20% growth compared to the investment level observed in the US oilpatch in 2018, while the $260 billion capex level recorded in 2014 is not expected to ever be seen again.

“Some market participants have voiced concerns about a possible depletion in resources from core parts of major liquids basins in the US. But there are no indications that such a development will occur any time soon,” Abramov noted. “While Rystad Energy generally applies a conservative approach when estimating remaining drilling inventory per acreage, even in the most mature Bakken and Eagle Ford basins, about 70% of economically recoverable resources in Rystad Energy’s base case oil price scenario have yet to be developed.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US...bined.html

Thanks guys.

Do I hear "USA, USA, USA" again...?!


This prognosis depends on constant new spending on shale industry which is constantly in debt. Who will do that? Patriotic Americans,
I suppose. I expect "shale bonds" soon, for every American.

Russia for sure will start declining soon (they themselves said so ), Saudi Arabia is a big question mark as they hide everything what they can.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 03:09 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 03:06 PM
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glugger Offline
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Post: #203
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
I thought you were arguing that we are running out of oil. Now the US will just go broke before we do?

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02-06-2019 03:25 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #204
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
To those who want to say goodbye to this thread...Go! But remember this: Oil depletion never stops.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 03:26 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 03:26 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #205
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Neither do oil reserves, and oil extraction technology. "Peak oil" is always 10 or 20 years in the future...

The return on shale oil investment dwarfs that of heavily subsidized "green" energy like solar or wind, shale has been economically viable without subsidies dues to huge recent strides in technology which have more than halved extraction costs.

Russia's production will remain stable in the next decade, they could actually increase their production with further investments, which they would do if oil prices or global demand went up. Right now with the US and Saudis flooding the market it's not something they want to do in the short term.

[Image: Top_Oil_Producing_Countries.png]

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02-06-2019 03:31 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #206
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 03:25 PM)glugger Wrote:  I thought you were arguing that we are running out of oil. Now the US will just go broke before we do?

Yes. You finally got it!
Oil extraction costs will finally make this extraction unprofitable before oil itself ends. They drill now wells which have 4 km depth. That is a lot of meters, and a lot of dollars .
We are at the end of cheap oil, and the expensive oil is too expensive as an energy source for our civilization.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 03:42 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 03:31 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #207
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Learn to crash your world rather later than sooner in this simulation of Club of Rome WORLD3 model:

https://insightmaker.com/insight/153818/...Forecaster
02-06-2019 04:03 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #208
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
If it's too expensive, then why is it so cheap?

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02-06-2019 04:27 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #209
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 04:27 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  If it's too expensive, then why is it so cheap?

Demand destruction, i.e. crisis.
02-06-2019 08:46 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #210
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
"I.E. crisis" tells me nothing.


Here's a chart of energy consumption I grabbed off wiki. How is demand for oil down when consumption of oil is up?

[Image: Bp_world_energy_consumption_2016.gif]

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02-06-2019 08:52 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #211
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 08:52 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  "I.E. crisis" tells me nothing.


Here's a chart of energy consumption I grabbed off wiki. How is demand for oil down when consumption of oil is up?

[Image: Bp_world_energy_consumption_2016.gif]

Chart ends in 2015.
Go to the IEA chart few posts earlier, it starts falling down around 2018.
02-06-2019 08:56 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #212
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
I've looked through the posts and I don't see it, would you please post it again?

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02-06-2019 08:59 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #213
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 08:59 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  I've looked through the posts and I don't see it, would you please post it again?

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-33831...pid1931453
02-06-2019 09:01 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #214
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
That's not a chart of actual global energy consumption, or a chart of future prospects under current conditions. It's a chart of something completely different, presented without context, that's misleading and deceives the viewer in the context you presented it. You didn't, for instance, give anybody information about what the "Sustainable Development Scenario" is, or link to the original report, or talk about what "no new investment" means. You just posted a scary looking graph to prove your thesis. I assume you found it on reddit, which is one of the few places it's been linked, in /r/dieoff and other goofy-ass subreddits filled with doomers.

Now, you're a slimy little weasel who thinks he's far smarter than he actually is, so I'm not going dwell on the fact that you're either deliberately deceptive or too lazy to do basic research, though, because it's a waste of time.

The actual report you linked to, the World Energy Outlook 2018, is only available if you're willing to pay 120 euros, and I am not. You can, however, read a similar report here. Please pay particular attention to slide 6, where it shows that consumption of petroleum and other liquid products has risen steadily throughout the decade, did not level off in 2018, and is projected to continue to rise at a fairly even rate until at least 2040.

So there has not been no drop in demand. Since there has been no drop in demand, there cannot be demand destruction.

Any other ideas?

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(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 09:28 PM by SamuelBRoberts.)
02-06-2019 09:27 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #215
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 09:27 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  That's not a chart of actual global energy consumption, or a chart of future prospects under current conditions. It's a chart of something completely different, presented without context, that's misleading and deceives the viewer in the context you presented it. You didn't, for instance, give anybody information about what the "Sustainable Development Scenario" is, or link to the original report, or talk about what "no new investment" means. You just posted a scary looking graph to prove your thesis. I assume you found it on reddit, which is one of the few places it's been linked, in /r/dieoff and other goofy-ass subreddits filled with doomers.

Now, you're a slimy little weasel who thinks he's far smarter than he actually is, so I'm not going dwell on the fact that you're either deliberately deceptive or too lazy to do basic research, though, because it's a waste of time.

The actual report you linked to, the World Energy Outlook 2018, is only available if you're willing to pay 120 euros, and I am not. You can, however, read a similar report here. Please pay particular attention to slide 6, where it shows that consumption of petroleum and other liquid products has risen steadily throughout the decade, did not level off in 2018, and is projected to continue to rise at a fairly even rate until at least 2040.

So there has not been no drop in demand. Since there has been no drop in demand, there cannot be demand destruction.

Any other ideas?

The "current conditions" will not multiply oil.

IEA is more pessimistic than USA EIA.

NPS- New Policies Scenario - policies according to international climate accords, global warming driven.

Sustainable Development - even more radical than NPS

Periodic shortages of diesel in Europe, together with the fact that diesel is now more expensive than gasoline here, show that there are already supply problems.

Your own chart shows that it will be hard to replace oil - it provides more energy than gas or coil.

Your name calling is just bullying.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 09:52 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 09:41 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #216
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 09:41 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  The "current conditions" will not multiply oil.
IEA is more pessimistic than USA EIA.
NPS- New Policies Scenario - policies according to international climate accords, global warming driven.
Sustainable Development - even more radical than NPS
Your name calling is just bullying.

We weren't talking about "multiplying oil". You made a specific claim, which is that oil prices are down due to "demand destruction". But this is impossible, because demand for oil isn't down. It is up.

If you don't want to be called a slimy weasel, don't post scary-looking charts without explaining what they are.

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02-06-2019 09:50 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #217
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 09:50 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  
(02-06-2019 09:41 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  The "current conditions" will not multiply oil.
IEA is more pessimistic than USA EIA.
NPS- New Policies Scenario - policies according to international climate accords, global warming driven.
Sustainable Development - even more radical than NPS
Your name calling is just bullying.

We weren't talking about "multiplying oil". You made a specific claim, which is that oil prices are down due to "demand destruction". But this is impossible, because demand for oil isn't down. It is up.

If you don't want to be called a slimy weasel, don't post scary-looking charts without explaining what they are.

If there were no demand destruction, oil supply should be constantly rising together with prices. But oil supply is at the plateau, prices are falling, debt is rising.
And higher prices in the recent past did not bring more oil to the market.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 10:26 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 10:01 PM
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---- Offline
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Post: #218
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 02:17 PM)911 Wrote:  [Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyourenergy.extension.co...mp;amp;f=1]

Yes, this chart is correct, but what is amazing is that natural gas is also a renewable resource because methane can be derived from sewage, agricultural waste, landfill waste, and biomass. There are already natural gas power plants in landfills that extract the methane gas from these sites and use them to generate electricity and this is also an invention of the USA. Even the natural gas drilled from underground is also renewable because the biomass that gets buried underneath the soil every day rapidly converts into methane as it decomposes providing an instant source of natural gas. An analysis by the Gas Technology Institute of the US actually determined that renewable sources of fuel like natural gas can meet the energy needs of 50% of American homes. Below is an interesting quote:

Quote:In combination with power-to-gas, whereby the carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide fraction of biogas are converted to methane using electrolyzed hydrogen, the renewable gas potential of raw biogas is approximately doubled. Many ways of methanising carbon dioxide/monoxide and hydrogen exist, including biomethanation, the sabatier process and a new electrochemical process pioneered in the United States currently undergoing trials.

Because of the use of natural gas for 32% of US electricity generation, the percentage of renewable electricity used by the US is actually 70%.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_natural_gas

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Development/O...to-Potable
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 10:56 PM by ----.)
02-06-2019 10:17 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #219
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
The main reason demand for oil is slated to plateau in a decade or two is the imposition of artificial restrictions by Warmist and globalist regulators. In other words, it's a purely artificial and self-defeating barrier. Hopefully the cooling that should be happening due to reduced solar activity will help squelch the warmist narrative and reverse the trend.

Also, good article in the NYT about the Permian Basin in Texas becoming the world's largest producer:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/busin...d-oil.html

"How a ‘Monster’ Texas Oil Field Made the U.S. a Star in the World Market

Innovation, investment and inviting geology have given new life to an oil patch that once seemed spent. The oil field is now the world’s second most productive.

By Clifford Krauss Feb. 3, 2019

MIDLAND, Tex. — In a global collapse of oil prices five years ago, scores of American oil companies went bankrupt. But one field withstood the onslaught, and even thrived: the Permian Basin, straddling Texas and New Mexico.

A combination of technical innovation, aggressive investing and copious layers of oil-rich shale have transformed the Permian, once considered a worn-out patch, into the world’s second-most-productive oil field.

And this transformation has apparently inoculated Texas against its traditional economic enemy, the boom-and-bust cycle pegged to oil prices.

Even now, with prices still far below their peak, the Permian is bursting with production and exploration, and the biggest concern is how to create more capacity to get all that oil to market.

...Companies found ways to lower exploration and production costs in tapping the Permian’s accommodating shale. New technologies for drilling and hydraulic fracturing helped bring the break-even price for the best wells from over $60 a barrel to as low as $33.

The Permian, as vast as South Dakota, is distinct from other shale fields because of its enormous size, the thickness of its multiple shale layers — some as fat as 1,000 feet — and its proximity to refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. Some shale fields produce too much natural gas, which is worth less than oil. Others have uneven layers of rock difficult to drill through. The Permian is rich in oil, and its shales are relatively easy to tap with today’s rigs...."

“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 10:26 PM by 911.)
02-06-2019 10:20 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #220
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 10:17 PM)---- Wrote:  
(02-06-2019 02:17 PM)911 Wrote:  [Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fyourenergy.extension.co...mp;amp;f=1]

Yes, this chart is correct, but what is amazing is that natural gas is also a renewable resource because methane can be derived from sewage, agricultural waste, landfill waste, and biomass. There are already natural gas power plants in landfills that extract the methane gas from these sites and use them to generate electricity and this is also an invention of the USA. Even the natural gas drilled from underground is also renewable because the decomposing biomass that gets buried underneath the soil every day rapidly converts into methane as it decomposes providing an instant source of natural gas. An analysis by the Gas Technology Institute of the US actually determined that renewable sources of fuel like natural gas can meet the energy needs of 50% of American homes. Below is an interesting quote:

Quote:In combination with power-to-gas, whereby the carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide fraction of biogas are converted to methane using electrolyzed hydrogen, the renewable gas potential of raw biogas is approximately doubled. Many ways of methanising carbon dioxide/monoxide and hydrogen exist, including biomethanation, the sabatier process and a new electrochemical process pioneered in the United States currently undergoing trials.

Because of the use of natural gas for 32% of US electricity generation, the percentage of renewable electricity used by the US is actually 70%.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_natural_gas

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Development/O...to-Potable



Oh, that's really bad argumentation, very poor attempt to conflate biomass/methane from human waste with natural gas, tsk tsk quadruple dash! You said that renewables today are 2/3 as electricity source when it's actually about 1/3.

Admit you were wrong, learn and move on, nothing wrong about that, to the contrary. Doubling down is silly when your audience isn't too thick.

“Nothing is more useful than to look upon the world as it really is.”
02-06-2019 10:34 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #221
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Global warming is a cover for resources depletion, and won't be scrapped soon.
They will just call cooling "weather instability driven by global warming" or something in this style.

But I think we have already started repeating our arguments.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 10:40 PM by Kaligula.)
02-06-2019 10:37 PM
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---- Offline
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Post: #222
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 10:34 PM)911 Wrote:  Oh, that's really bad argumentation, very poor attempt to conflate biomass/methane from human waste with natural gas, tsk tsk quadruple dash! You said that renewables today are 2/3 as electricity source when it's actually about 1/3.

Admit you were wrong, learn and move on, nothing wrong about that, to the contrary. Doubling down is silly when your audience isn't too thick.

I also said that the natural gas drilled from underground is renewable because the biomass that gets buried underneath the soil every day rapidly converts into methane as it decomposes providing an instant source of natural gas.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 10:56 PM by ----.)
02-06-2019 10:54 PM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #223
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 10:54 PM)---- Wrote:  
(02-06-2019 10:34 PM)911 Wrote:  Oh, that's really bad argumentation, very poor attempt to conflate biomass/methane from human waste with natural gas, tsk tsk quadruple dash! You said that renewables today are 2/3 as electricity source when it's actually about 1/3.

Admit you were wrong, learn and move on, nothing wrong about that, to the contrary. Doubling down is silly when your audience isn't too thick.

I also said that the natural gas drilled from underground is renewable because the biomass that gets buried underneath the soil every day rapidly converts into methane as it decomposes providing an instant source of natural gas.

In this sense everything is renewable, except nuclear. Oil, gas, coal were once biomass.
02-06-2019 10:59 PM
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Post: #224
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 10:59 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  In this sense everything is renewable, oil, gas, coal were once biomass


Yes, but natural gas renews faster than coal or oil because the methane gas is released immediately upon the decomposition of the biomass. The biomass for coal and oil must be subjected to tremendous pressure and heat underground for millions of years before it turns into coal and oil. This is why it is also possible to extract methane from landfills because it is released immediately when the decomposition of the biomass begins.
(This post was last modified: 02-06-2019 11:17 PM by ----.)
02-06-2019 11:16 PM
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Post: #225
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-06-2019 04:27 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  If it's too expensive, then why is it so cheap?

This guy has many good answers, unfortunately it's in french :





There used to be an english version of the slides but apparently it's gone Sad

Although I just saw that there are english subs available with the video, no idea whether they're any good though.

(02-06-2019 10:59 PM)Kaligula Wrote:  In this sense everything is renewable, except nuclear. Oil, gas, coal were once biomass.

Well we tried breeder reactors in the past ..
02-07-2019 03:30 AM
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