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James Kunstler and Peak Oil
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #251
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 02:34 PM)911 Wrote:  "Permafrost" means that the top few hundred meters
are frozen. This does not impede oil extraction in much
of Siberia, wherever oil is below the frozen surface.
On average in the Permian Basin oil is about 1km deep.

I would guess it would actually be easier to operate
in permafrost regions over a solid top, as opposed
to the mud soup that slightly warmer northern areas
turn into in summertime.

Maybe, I'm not from the oil extraction industry so I don't know the details.
However the problem is that infrastructures around the basin will be pretty much non-existent, because of the permafrost.

Here are maps of roads and railways, the problem is rather clear :

[Image: 1200px-Russian_federal_highways.svg.png]

[Image: russia-major-railway-network-map.jpg]

What's left ?
River routes are not that practical as far as I know, airways would not be economically interesting, something else I'm missing maybe ?
02-09-2019 03:16 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #252
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
If we're talking about a situation where oil is a scarce and precious commodity, wouldn't they just build some railways? They're not expensive, it's literally just wood and metal.
02-09-2019 03:28 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #253
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Maybe, I don't have a crystal ball Smile

The lower the temperatures the more maintenance the infrastructures require, and it quickly becomes exponential.
At some point you are spending more time repairing than actually being able to use said infrastructure.

So for the moment it was never deemed interesting but yes it could change in the future, who knows.
This wouldn't be trivial at all, but maybe it will still end up being done.
02-09-2019 03:58 PM
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deerhunter Offline
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Post: #254
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 03:58 PM)Oberrheiner Wrote:  Maybe, I don't have a crystal ball Smile

The lower the temperatures the more maintenance the infrastructures require, and it quickly becomes exponential.
At some point you are spending more time repairing than actually being able to use said infrastructure.

So for the moment it was never deemed interesting but yes it could change in the future, who knows.
This wouldn't be trivial at all, but maybe it will still end up being done.

The oil work is done in the winter when the ground is frozen and vegetation is protected by ice. Drilling is done of gravel pads built in winter. This has been going on in Northern Alaska for over 50 years. Infrastructure is built and wells drilled. Pipelines are hooked up from production pads. Enviromental regulations are extreme, pour your cup of coffee on the snow and you are likely to be fired. Pickup trucks are left running in winter and they put an oil pan underneath the blocks to catch any potential drips. All without interconnecting roads. One gravel road was built north from Fairbanks along the route of the main pipeline to transport oil to the ocean for tankers and to bring supplies to the North Slope. Oil People will build and drill anywhere they can make a buck and they can make a buck in the far north even with Alaskan environmental rules as long as the deposits justify it.
02-09-2019 04:33 PM
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Oberrheiner Offline
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Post: #255
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Ok, thanks for interesting input deerhunter.

Like I said, for the moment the russians apparently decided it made more sense to build tracked amphibious vehicles than to bother rebuilding transport infrastructure every year.
But yes, maybe it will change at some point and they will end up doing it like in the alaska, I do not believe it's likely but it's always a possibility.

They say that when there is a will there is a way after all ..
02-11-2019 05:59 AM
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---- Offline
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Post: #256
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-09-2019 02:18 PM)911 Wrote:  Your post doesn't address my point, the fact that landfill gas are small local powerplants that aren't economically competitive with conventional natural gas without subsidies, that's why it is a marginal source of electricity today.

I never said that landfill methane gas extraction should comprise a large percentage of the natural gas that is extracted, I am simply saying that the natural gas extracted from deposits renew faster than oil and coal because methane gas is released quickly as soon as the biomass buried underground decomposes while the rest of the biomass has to be subjected to tremendous pressure and heat for millions of years before it turns into coal and oil.
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02-12-2019 07:46 AM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #257
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Interesting thread. Conclusion seems to be that peak oil either started a couple years ago, or it is 200 years in the future. Assuming the maunder minimum mini-ice age began in 2015 and will peak in 2028, a 200 year peak oil is the best we can hope for. If peak oil is upon us, the maunder minimum will be quite a doozy. Mass depopulation event. Wonder if we have an ice age thread here.

One interesting argument against the 200 year peak oil is that it is being artificially propped up by quantitative easing (printing fiat). How would one prove or disprove that?
02-15-2019 08:03 PM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #258
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Also, the "Ice Age Now" crowd have a good explanation for the diesel tax etc making it LOOK like peak oil even if it isn't... they say the next year will see a planned collapse of the economy a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.
02-15-2019 08:09 PM
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questor70 Offline
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Post: #259
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-15-2019 08:09 PM)TheMost Wrote:  a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.
02-15-2019 10:33 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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Post: #260
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-15-2019 10:33 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 08:09 PM)TheMost Wrote:  a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Not to mention, food prices stateside have collapsed. The price of meat especially is so damn cheap right now thanks to the trade war. No more Chinese sucking up the supply.
02-15-2019 11:12 PM
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infowarrior1 Offline
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Post: #261
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-08-2019 05:36 PM)911 Wrote:  Kaligula, about the map above, there are large shale oil deposits in eastern Canada that don't show on it.

With the current world oil reseerves around 1,600 billion barrels, and the current consumption rate of 100M barrels per day, we have an annual consumption of 360M barrels, so about 1 B every 3 years, which translates to about 400 years of oil left.

Basically, oil is a relatively cheap and accessible resource that can power humanity for generations to come. I think the reason Big Oil has lined up behind the global warming hoax is that this is a way to artificially throttle the supply of a near endless commodity. The owners of big oil are tribes like the Rockefellers, who have long become banker oligarchs, and to them artificially created markets like the carbon trade market represent trillion dollar financial opportunities, as are "green" energies which they also dominate. Furthermore, the banksters as oligarchs can impose taxes and further fleece the middle class.

This is covered really well in this James Corbett documentary, one of his best works, and one of the best documentaries made in the last decade, a must-see:





This is the angle that leftists don't understand, they believe that evil big oil is the main barrier against global warming regulation schemes, when in fact they're fully on board.

Good info. Plus I am more worried about the polluting effects of its current use in tech the toxic stuff that vehicles belch when it drives(excluding CO2). The plastic pollution and BPA shenanigans for example.

And toxic byproducts of factories and other industrial processes dumped in the environment.

Although improving industrial civilization has a lot to work on aesthetically and environmentally.
02-15-2019 11:49 PM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #262
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-15-2019 10:33 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 08:09 PM)TheMost Wrote:  a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Typo. Meant 2028, not 2018.
02-16-2019 01:02 AM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #263
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-15-2019 11:12 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 10:33 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 08:09 PM)TheMost Wrote:  a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Not to mention, food prices stateside have collapsed. The price of meat especially is so damn cheap right now thanks to the trade war. No more Chinese sucking up the supply.

The Ice Age guys explain this as part of the collapse. Globally there were a lot of crop failures because of unusually cold and damp weather. Cattle need hay and feed to get through winter. The collapse of beef prices reflects that ranchers had to cull far more than the usual amount of cows, because there wasn't enough feed available for sale to get them through the winter.

Stockpile your cheap beef and keep it in the freezer. I expect beef prices to go back up in half a year or so. Takes a couple years to bounce back from such a large cull. Once the current glut on the market is cleared it will take a long time to rebuild herds, especially if the cold weather continues and feed remains in limited supply.

Lot of our bread-basket region crops went moldy in the field this year and the ground was too cold and mushy to plant the winter crop. When you rely on 2 or 3 crops a year, a late spring and early winter can cut your output by 2/3 and more. And when that is happening world wide, you can't just ship in food from elsewhere without warfare.

One analyst reported that China has already bought out the entire grain crop from the countries on their borders, in addition to their activities in Africa.
02-16-2019 01:10 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #264
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
I did not know that crops failed worldwide. In EU, they certainly did, with some places having fallen by 50%.
Poland had 18% less crops in 2018 comparing to 2017.
Luckily, EU is cushioned by its agricultural policy, producing more than we need in normal times.

I wonder whether TPTB are surprised by Maunder minimum. They have been so much into global warming and carbon tax... Didn't they notice the sun?

Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 03:53 AM by Kaligula.)
02-16-2019 03:17 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Meanwhile, it is now becoming official that shale oil, oil which does not produce much diesel, is not the oil we really wait for...
"Quality" problems they call it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Em...rkets.html
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 03:35 AM by Kaligula.)
02-16-2019 03:28 AM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #266
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 03:17 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  I did not know that crops failed worldwide. In EU, they certainly did, with some places having fallen by 50%.
Poland had 18% less crops in 2018 comparing to 2017.
Luckily, EU is cushioned by its agricultural policy, producing more than we need in normal times.

I hope the EU is storing that extra. Canada and the USA used to have a 7 year reserve. Now... hah. Gone by the wayside, like a lot of our infrastructure. Redundancy and resiliency sacrificed in the name of efficiency.

When I did my last bulk purchases I discovered that paper reserves are not related to the real reserves. Had to wait a year to get my relatively small order of rye fulfilled, although I was reassured that it was "in stock" the whole time. No it wasn't, because they shipped it to me right around harvest time.

Quote:I wonder whether TPTB are surprised by Maunder minimum. They have been so much into global warming and carbon tax... Didn't they notice the sun?

NASA consultant John Casey noticed it. And for the past 20 years I've seen people like Robert Felix and others talking about it. The book by Mike Baillie about the Black Death is chilling; the Black Plague was likely the result of starvation and dampness causing mold and fungus during the mini ice-age. Around the world trees stopped growing entirely for 10 years, and it took 100 years for growth to return to normal. Baillie is a tree ring expert so he went into detail on this topic.

If TPTB didn't know about it, why would they be preparing a controlled market collapse ahead of the need for food rationing?

If you are already versed in the basics of Ice Age theory, this video is a good "where are we at right now" update.



(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 04:53 AM by TheMost.)
02-16-2019 04:31 AM
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TheMost Offline
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Post: #267
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 03:17 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.

Yes. Taking this into consideration, very important to get peak oil right. I really hope you are wrong and peak oil is 200 years away. If we are at peak oil, this maunder minimum is going to be way way way more painful.


I still don't understand your argument, Kaligula, about lower oil prices being a result of peak oil. I mean, I think I understand the argument, but it doesn't make sense. You say that the people willing to buy crude at higher prices have stopped doing whatever it was they were doing, so only those who are willing to pay lower prices are left? Is your argument that the current price of oil is a game of musical chairs propped up by issuance of fiat?
02-16-2019 04:36 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 04:36 AM)TheMost Wrote:  
(02-16-2019 03:17 AM)Kaligula Wrote:  Maunder minimum seems to be a typical black swan event. And it is to end only around 2070-2080. But the 2020-2030 decade may be the hardest one.

Yes. Taking this into consideration, very important to get peak oil right. I really hope you are wrong and peak oil is 200 years away. If we are at peak oil, this maunder minimum is going to be way way way more painful.


I still don't understand your argument, Kaligula, about lower oil prices being a result of peak oil. I mean, I think I understand the argument, but it doesn't make sense. You say that the people willing to buy crude at higher prices have stopped doing whatever it was they were doing, so only those who are willing to pay lower prices are left? Is your argument that the current price of oil is a game of musical chairs propped up by issuance of fiat?

Every knowledgeable person expects economic reset, namely, the crash of debt driven economy. I do not think that economic reset is a cover for Maunder minimum, there is quite an independent need to reset the money system. This is why a lot of people are expecting some big war.
Don't know. The problem is how much TPTB are ready to "surface", so to say. The official narration is just a debt crisis, a war would suit as well.
The covert reasons are peak oil and Maunder minimum. But I do not believe the latter was seriously expected, since it does not pass into the official global warming narrative. Where is this "overt" narrative for Maunder minimum?

If we were able to go into limitless debt, there would be no peak oil, since we could recover more and more expensive oil reserves. NOT the current market price of oil is supported by fiat, by the current level of production are supported by fiat, so yes, in a way, you are right, the current costs of oil production are supported by fiat, i.e. debt. The problem is that money system itself hinges on petrodollar, petrodollar hinges on Saudi rial-USD peg, and Saudis are dependent on their diminishing oil reserves. If we don't crash economy, Saudi situation will crash US dollar sooner or later, and so will crash the USD-based money system. The fiat is essentially "pretend" money, and the question is what to do so we could be able to "pretend" further.
I think that US chosen solution is to bring more oil producing countries under the direct US control. After Iraq, Libya, Venezuela is now on the table, and Iran is the next one, I suppose. This is a temporary solution, of course, since the viability of petrodollar demands that oil will be still available and important fuel. Less oil means less urgency to have petrodollars in your wallet, too.

Due to the crisis, the market price of oil much is much lower than the current price of oil, and there is no real price discovery. But the chicken are coming home to roost, just read titles like:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...-Deal.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...antra.html

Such titles mean that the pressure of reality (economy not able to take high priced oil) is increasing. Economy would be able to take this higher costs only if it were growing at least at the pace matching the rising oil extraction costs. Otherwise the share of non-energy economic activity decreases.
But the general economy does not exist to extract oil only, after all. So it will collapse.

It is all a grand cycle of feedback.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 06:14 AM by Kaligula.)
02-16-2019 05:45 AM
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Kaligula Offline
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Post: #269
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
Also, I think that the talk about oil production cuts in Saudi Arabia is nowadays the cover for peak oil depletion. Let's see: Saudi Arabia announces 500 000 bd production cut. Since the general Saudi production last years used to be around 10 millions barrels per day, we can easily get that this current cut is just 5% of former production, which is just a stated oil depletion rate which is 5-6% for conventional oil. And remember, Saudi Arabia is the low cost producer. They say now they cannot balance budget under 80$ oil. But they were able to do that in the past with low price oil. So?

They will now say that they need some high price for their oil, so they make "cuts", whereas in reality those cuts are just oil depletion rates.
Expect production "cuts" all the time in coming years.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 06:34 AM by Kaligula.)
02-16-2019 06:24 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #270
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 01:10 AM)TheMost Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 11:12 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 10:33 PM)questor70 Wrote:  
(02-15-2019 08:09 PM)TheMost Wrote:  a year ahead of actual food rationing starting, with peak starvation and food shortage in 2018.

Might want to check your calendar. It's already 2019.

Not to mention, food prices stateside have collapsed. The price of meat especially is so damn cheap right now thanks to the trade war. No more Chinese sucking up the supply.

The Ice Age guys explain this as part of the collapse. Globally there were a lot of crop failures because of unusually cold and damp weather. Cattle need hay and feed to get through winter. The collapse of beef prices reflects that ranchers had to cull far more than the usual amount of cows, because there wasn't enough feed available for sale to get them through the winter.

Stockpile your cheap beef and keep it in the freezer. I expect beef prices to go back up in half a year or so. Takes a couple years to bounce back from such a large cull. Once the current glut on the market is cleared it will take a long time to rebuild herds, especially if the cold weather continues and feed remains in limited supply.

Lot of our bread-basket region crops went moldy in the field this year and the ground was too cold and mushy to plant the winter crop. When you rely on 2 or 3 crops a year, a late spring and early winter can cut your output by 2/3 and more. And when that is happening world wide, you can't just ship in food from elsewhere without warfare.

One analyst reported that China has already bought out the entire grain crop from the countries on their borders, in addition to their activities in Africa.


1-There is absolutely no evidence that we're entering an ice age. We are probably going to experience some slight cooling similar to the period from 1950-80. Nothing to panic about. Alarmism is sexy and exciting, but its premises are usually flawed. Climate has been relatively stable in the last 100 years, with periods of warming (1920-40, 1975-99) and periods of cooling (1945-75), all within a relatively small envelope. Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here.

2-World agricultural output has been stable and growing, propped up by rising CO2 concentrations. CO2 is a very powerful plant fertilizer, up to 20%-25% of agricultural productivity is credited to higher rates of CO2.

[Image: ?u=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-Eq3...%252Ba.png]

[Image: ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwhyfiles.org%2Fwp-conte...n_prod.png]

There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.

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02-16-2019 12:51 PM
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Post: #271
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
"Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here."

You gotta hand it to the internet. It's full of people making declarative statements like this without any evidence to back it up.
02-16-2019 06:30 PM
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RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 06:30 PM)questor70 Wrote:  "Manhattan is never going to be under water, or under an ice sheet, no need to go Al Gore on us here."

You gotta hand it to the internet. It's full of people making declarative statements like this without any evidence to back it up.

If he is going with the common definition of Ice Age, I understand where he is coming from. In the Ice Age community we've known for a long time that Manhattan was never under giant sheets of ice. You can look at the analysis by Kurt Johman for that info.

When we speak of Ice Age, we are taking about the type of ice ages that we've had over the past 4000 years, such as the one 1400 years ago, 800 years ago, 400 years ago, 200 years ago... Manhattan won't be covered with giant ice sheets, but 400 years ago the Baltic sea and the Thames river froze solid. The Dalton minimum in 1816 killed thousands of Americans. A year without summer is a terrible thing.



02-16-2019 07:09 PM
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Post: #273
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 12:51 PM)911 Wrote:  There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.

The chart you showed stops in 2011. Lot has happened since then. You didn't hear about the riots in the Philippines because of rice shortages? A lot of people credit high food prices (caused by food shortages) for the Arab Spring. Perhaps you've heard that analysis?
02-16-2019 07:12 PM
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Post: #274
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
TheMost, how much money you got in grains futures right now?

Gotta be a lot, right, since they're gonna go way up in price as global cooling hits full swing?
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 07:57 PM by SamuelBRoberts.)
02-16-2019 07:57 PM
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Post: #275
RE: James Kunstler and Peak Oil
(02-16-2019 07:12 PM)TheMost Wrote:  
(02-16-2019 12:51 PM)911 Wrote:  There has been no shortage of wheat or of the other big three cereals in recent times (rice, corn and soy), to the contrary.

The chart you showed stops in 2011. Lot has happened since then. You didn't hear about the riots in the Philippines because of rice shortages? A lot of people credit high food prices (caused by food shortages) for the Arab Spring. Perhaps you've heard that analysis?

The recent world grain production data does not justify doomsday porn narratives:

[Image: w_wvusratio.gif]

[Image: GetStoredBlogImage?symbolicName=original...tegory=CMS]

[Image: w_wprodvcons.gif]

there is a small deficit in 2018, which as you can see from the first chart, is easily absorbed by existing stocks.

Global wheat stocks have been near all-time highs, so is global production.

If the small deficit from 2018 continues, prices will go up and more land will be cultivated. The amount of land cultivated has been shrinking due to increases in yields, this is for corn, the pattern is similar for wheat:

[Image: ?u=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-8Lw...nprice.jpg]

agricultural yields have been increasing faster than global demand, hence the concept of peak farmland.

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(This post was last modified: 02-16-2019 08:02 PM by 911.)
02-16-2019 08:00 PM
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