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Poll: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I own physical Gold
I own physical Silver
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Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
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Arado Offline
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Post: #376
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(04-08-2019 10:27 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(04-07-2019 05:40 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Owning a small farm for personal use is a smart idea if your up for the work. Owning a small farm as a business is a hands on operation , not a passive investment . Its a career choice in addition to an investment.

(04-08-2019 03:52 AM)Arado Wrote:  In terms of agriculture investing, it's a bit of a pain to own and run a farm for those stuck in big cities. What about agriculture focused REITs?

This is exactly what I mean about thinking outside-the-box. A farm can indeed be a passive investment. Or if you are an American living overseas and can commit about ten hours a week of management time yourself (in addition to daily farm management by a third party), you could also conceivably draw a tax-free salary up to $104,000 under the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion.

There are many options available, constrained only by your imagination and the tax code. Unfortunately, because of the recent Trump tax law, the days of holding tax-deferred retained earnings in offshore corporations are now over for U.S. citizens. This includes farms, unless you can get really creative while still complying with the tax code.

Just think about all of your assumptions and how erroneous they are. Compete against big ag. Uh, no. Grow conventional crops. Uh, no. Become a farmer and work in the fields. Uh, no (unless you want that lifestyle change). Just as a matter of logic, why would any thinking person do any of that? Significantly, all of these erroneous assumptions stem from inside-the-box thinking.

Instead of thinking about "agriculture focused REITs," how about committing to some real research and thinking about a farm management company? This is why many people do not get far in their financial life. They make assumptions based on ordinary conventions and fail to perform basic research. Even gold bugs, while contrarians, are still part of a pack with set thinking patterns. Gold and silver are great insurance, but they should be a mere complement to a true financial survival plan. You can do better. Separate yourself from the pack by educating yourselves. Learn what is out there.

(05-29-2019 12:22 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  An interesting article comparing farmland versus gold as an alternative investment and an inflation hedge. Investing in farmland is largely overlooked in recent decades as an alternative tangible investment to paper assets. Yet, unlike gold, farmland has generated positive combined annual returns every year for the last 20-plus years.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinan...e155ff71ed

So how does an amateur investor actually go about investing in farmland? This is far from what the typical financial advisor recommends so we need some specifics. So far I found acretrader, which allows accredited investors to buy shares in farms, but don't know if this is a legit company. Finding a trustworthy management company for urban real estate is hard enough, let alone for farmland.
05-29-2019 08:58 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #377
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(05-29-2019 08:58 PM)Arado Wrote:  
(04-08-2019 10:27 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(04-07-2019 05:40 PM)Iconoclast007 Wrote:  Owning a small farm for personal use is a smart idea if your up for the work. Owning a small farm as a business is a hands on operation , not a passive investment . Its a career choice in addition to an investment.

(04-08-2019 03:52 AM)Arado Wrote:  In terms of agriculture investing, it's a bit of a pain to own and run a farm for those stuck in big cities. What about agriculture focused REITs?

This is exactly what I mean about thinking outside-the-box. A farm can indeed be a passive investment. Or if you are an American living overseas and can commit about ten hours a week of management time yourself (in addition to daily farm management by a third party), you could also conceivably draw a tax-free salary up to $104,000 under the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion.

There are many options available, constrained only by your imagination and the tax code. Unfortunately, because of the recent Trump tax law, the days of holding tax-deferred retained earnings in offshore corporations are now over for U.S. citizens. This includes farms, unless you can get really creative while still complying with the tax code.

Just think about all of your assumptions and how erroneous they are. Compete against big ag. Uh, no. Grow conventional crops. Uh, no. Become a farmer and work in the fields. Uh, no (unless you want that lifestyle change). Just as a matter of logic, why would any thinking person do any of that? Significantly, all of these erroneous assumptions stem from inside-the-box thinking.

Instead of thinking about "agriculture focused REITs," how about committing to some real research and thinking about a farm management company? This is why many people do not get far in their financial life. They make assumptions based on ordinary conventions and fail to perform basic research. Even gold bugs, while contrarians, are still part of a pack with set thinking patterns. Gold and silver are great insurance, but they should be a mere complement to a true financial survival plan. You can do better. Separate yourself from the pack by educating yourselves. Learn what is out there.

(05-29-2019 12:22 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  An interesting article comparing farmland versus gold as an alternative investment and an inflation hedge. Investing in farmland is largely overlooked in recent decades as an alternative tangible investment to paper assets. Yet, unlike gold, farmland has generated positive combined annual returns every year for the last 20-plus years.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinan...e155ff71ed

So how does an amateur investor actually go about investing in farmland? This is far from what the typical financial advisor recommends so we need some specifics. So far I found acretrader, which allows accredited investors to buy shares in farms, but don't know if this is a legit company. Finding a trustworthy management company for urban real estate is hard enough, let alone for farmland.

Yes, acretrader was listed at the bottom of the article that I cited. There are at least a dozen other companies that have entry-level investments for farmland. I will not list any of them, because I do not wish to be accused of schilling for them (and some of them may have problems of which I am not aware). Once you locate such companies, it is imperative that you do your due diligence, including boots-on-the-ground inspections of their land, infrastructure, offices, etc. I often try to locate previous investors to determine whether projections and promises were kept -- and whether the company communicates well with its investors.

In short, while you do not need to become a professional investor, you must indeed graduate from "amateur investor" status to an actual thinking logical action-oriented person (which excludes the vast majority of amateur investors).
(This post was last modified: 05-29-2019 09:27 PM by Tail Gunner.)
05-29-2019 09:22 PM
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Polniy_Sostav Offline
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Post: #378
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Anyone collecting Latin monetary union coins (20francs format ) and / or nugget/kangaroo coin ?
06-01-2019 02:51 AM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #379
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Gold is now at the highest price that it has been in several years, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ongoing trade wars, and Central Banks indicating they are ready to start printing again. There is still significant long term potential upside but short term movements can be all over the place based on the headline news. Silver has gone up slightly recently but is still relatively quiet.

Most other asset classes are relatively expensive now. I'm still open to the idea of investing in farmland as a stagflation hedge - any suggestions on books/websites/etc would be great.
06-24-2019 03:41 PM
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MrLemon Offline
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Post: #380
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
With Bitcoin available, gold is largely irrelevant. I mean, sure, it's better than stocks, but it's not as good as Bitcoin so why even bother?
06-24-2019 03:56 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #381
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(06-24-2019 03:56 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  With Bitcoin available, gold is largely irrelevant. I mean, sure, it's better than stocks, but it's not as good as Bitcoin so why even bother?

That is one damn crazy statement. How can something that has had intrinsic value for all of mankind's existence suddenly be replaced by something that might not even exist in a few years? Gold is insurance; Bitcoin is speculation.

Gold will always exist and always be valuable. There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will even exist in a few years.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2019 04:35 PM by Tail Gunner.)
06-24-2019 04:33 PM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #382
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I have an idea for a trade on what is going on in these markets. Let me first say that I am not an experienced trader and I don't know much about options trading though I have played around in the past. So enjoy and try not to make too much fun haha

What I am looking for here is mainly contrary information and opinions. Otherwise I will be making the Trades in the AM. I will be using ETFs GLD and SLV while also referring to to Gold and Silver physical prices in charts and with the GSR.

The GSR(Gold Silver Ratio) is at 92 right now. This is a 30 year high. and other than that is a 100 year high.
Quote:[Image: gold_20_year_silver.png]

This ratio swings wildly when these markets get going. As stated in posts above Gold just broke 6 year resistance and IMO it is not only due middle east tensions and trade wars. It has bumped up against the 1350-1370 range 4+ times in those 6 years and created higher lows on the way. I believe this move is for real and it could head much higher with a pullback or 2. Likely in the next 6 months, maybe 12. Remember, everything in the world has gone way up in price in the last 8 years EXCEPT a few things including Gold and Silver.

[Image: au2920lf_ma.gif]


Gold often drags silver until the trade gets hot then Silver usually spike ahead % wise.

[Image: ag2920lf_ma.gif]


1 of 3 thing will happen.
1. Both of the metals will continue up, moving more or less in tandem.
2. Silver will explode at some point and put the GSR at 65-75
3. Both metals will move down, likely with silver going down more than gold... but possibly staying stagnant while gold moves down slightly.

Or I guess
4. Both metals stay stagnant for the next 6 months( I can't imagine this happening, especially after the move we just had)

I have been following the Silver and Gold markets since 2008, religiously(I used to be obsessed because I had listened to too much Peter Schiff) and I have looked back over historic charts a good amount. I do not see another outcome. I especially do not see gold going higher while silver doesn't move, not at the current GSR(Gold Silver Ratio).

I see option 2 being very likely and silver quite possibly going up to 20-25$ in the next 6 months. This would be an increase of ~33-66% on the current price. Gold should be in the 1550-1700$ range in this case.

There is even a chance Silver rockets higher than this. Similar to the quick silver move in 2010 which continued into 2011. Gold had been moving and making 30 year highs and silver was stagnant in comparison. Remember, while gold recently broke a 6 year high, silver is still far off its 6 year high.



Now let me say I have made a lot of stupid option trades when I was in my mid 20s and I rarely make them anymore. I used to make a couple of 500$ long shot bets a year looking for a homerun that could return tens of thousands. Often looking for a market crash or something silly(Thanks Schiff). It was silly but I had a lot of disposable income and like the thrill. I hit a couple things but overall lost.

With this high GSR I was thinking of making a similar trade with a expiration date either in October or December. But now rather than gambling on this I think I can cover the other side. I think I can for example make the similar bet, but far more conservative, that gold will go down a couple %. I think this is better than put options on SLV due to golds recent spike and multiple closings in a row at 6 year highs.

This way it covers me on all my 3 scenarios above. Even if they both crash my GLD puts will cover my SLV call options. Could even profit nicely if gold gets smashed back below 1370.


I can't figure out how to get the options profit/loss charts to post but let me just say that if SLV were to go to these levels around 19-24 on just roughly 20$ strike prices for Dec 31 expire. We are talking 1,000%-3,000% gains. And though unlikely I think a high 20s silver spike this year is possible.

While the same expire date for GLD a put can be bought at a strike of roughly 2% less than the current price. This is an easy double if gold tests the 1370ish floor(previous resistance) anytime within the next few months. Which would pay for the entire silver longshot.

Again, I am just looking for contrary opinions if anybody can throw some at me. I try to see all sides these days.

Disclaimer: This a risky bet and you probably shouldn't do it unless you can handle losing all of the money you put in. You should also do your own thorough research.
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2019 11:32 PM by Jaydublin.)
06-24-2019 11:26 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #383
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(06-24-2019 11:26 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  1 of 3 thing will happen.
1. Both of the metals will continue up, moving more or less in tandem.
2. Silver will explode at some point and put the GSR at 65-75
3. Both metals will move down, likely with silver going down more than gold... but possibly staying stagnant while gold moves down slightly.

Or I guess
4. Both metals stay stagnant for the next 6 months( I can't imagine this happening, especially after the move we just had)

Again, I am just looking for contrary opinions if anybody can throw some at me. I try to see all sides these days.

You are missing at least one other plausible scenario. I am not saying that it is a likely scenario, just that it is plausible -- especially if gold has more or less permanently eclipsed silver as safe haven insurance. The price of gold could continue to rise as the price of silver stays more-or-less stagnant.

Quote:Zooming out a bit, the consistency of the trend in the gold/silver ratio chart for the past three years is even more striking: Ever since the early-2016 precious-metals rally peaked and ended in the summer of 2016, gold has outperformed silver so steadily and consistently that the gold/silver ratio chart is almost perfectly smooth in its ascent:

* * *

But in the medium and long term, the global economic and industrial slowdown and the long-term gold/silver ratio uptrend do not favor silver over gold.

Investors should never forget that silver is more of an industrial metal than gold is. As such, silver has an unusual dynamic, being part precious metal, part industrial metal. Silver is most valuable in periods when there is inflation along with healthy or growing global industrial activity. For example, historically the silver price has soared in times of large-scale global military conflict, such as during World Wars I and II.

But this also means that silver is not purely a "safe haven" precious metal asset in the same way that gold is. Demand for silver declines when global economic and industrial activity are slowing down rather than growing. In the Great Depression, gold held its value but silver did not. The gold/silver ratio soared up to as high as 100:1 back then as well.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4270470...ce-rallies
(This post was last modified: 06-24-2019 11:43 PM by Tail Gunner.)
06-24-2019 11:43 PM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #384
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
TG thanks for the input. Great point.

I did recognize that smoother move up to the current GSR. It seems that the reversal of the GSR usually reflects the move up(based on a longer term chart) which would mean that silver will not spike in this case but at best slightly gain on gold over the coarse of years.
06-24-2019 11:49 PM
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The Black Knight Offline
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Post: #385
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(06-24-2019 03:56 PM)MrLemon Wrote:  With Bitcoin available, gold is largely irrelevant. I mean, sure, it's better than stocks, but it's not as good as Bitcoin so why even bother?

How much Bitcoin has any central bank bought up? Not being sarcastic... has any significant central bank bought Bitcoin?

I ask because of this:

Quote:Central bank gold buying hits highest level in half a century

Jan 31 2019

The amount of gold bought by central banks in 2018 reached the second highest annual total on record, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

Central banks bought the most gold by volume since 1967, according to the industry research firm, which also highlighted it was the largest amount since former U.S. President Nixon Richard’s decision to end the dollar’s peg to bullion in 1971.

Central bank net purchases reached 651.5 metric tons in 2018, 74 percent higher than in the previous year when 375 tons were bought. The WGC has estimated that central banks now hold nearly 34,000 tons of gold.

The Federal Reserve is reported to hold the most, amounting for almost three quarters of the nation’s foreign-exchange reserve pot.

Taking the current spot price of $1,321.15 per troy ounce, gold purchases by central banks in 2018 amounted to a $27.7 billion spending splurge on the precious metal.

“Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty throughout the year increasingly drove central banks to diversify their reserves and re-focus their attention on the principal objective of investing in safe and liquid assets,” said the report released on Thursday.

The WGC said the bulk of the buying was carried out by a handful of central banks with Russia leading the way as it looks to swap out dollars from its portfolio. The Russian central bank sold almost all of its U.S. Treasury stock to buy 274.3 tons of gold in 2018.

The central bank of Turkey increased gold reserves by 51.5 tons in 2018. That marked a second consecutive year of net purchases but was 40 percent lower than the volume it bought in 2017.

Other big central bank buyers were Kazakhstan, India, Iraq, Poland and Hungary.

Net sales of gold from central banks remained small, totaling less than 15 tons. Australia, Germany, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Ukraine accounted for almost all of that figure.

WGC said total gold demand in 2018 reached a total of 4,345.1 tons. The biggest demand came from jewelry which, while flat on the 2017 figure, accounted for just over half of the total. Bars and coins contributed 1,090 tons in 2018, marking a 4 percent rise from the previous year. Gold used in technology climbed marginally to 334.6 tons.

The price of gold has risen around 9 percent in the last three months.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/world-go...1967-.html

If the central banks are buying up a ton of gold and a bunch of billionaires are as well, then ask yourself: what do THEY know that I don't?

I'm very bullish on Gold in the medium-long term. It has a clear floor of around 1200 and can go as high as 3,000-5000 very easily if a major insolvency/debt/currency crisis hits somewhere; which we are on the verge of having any day now between today and the November 2020 US election.

There are also a TON of things on the horizon that could blow everything up:

1. Iran War - Oil shoots up in price and economy crashes.

2. A socialist gets elected and the US currency goes right down the tubes.

3. Hard Brexit

4. Corporate debt crisis - the tech industry is especially vulnerable with all their stupid ass unprofitable companies valued in the billions. We saw what happened in fall 2018 when the FED said they were going to hike rates... the markets had a heart attack. What happens if the FED is forced to raise rates for some reason? Bye Bye Silicon Valley and a bunch of other non-tech stupid companies that have used cheap debt for a decade to buy back stock as oppose to building up business operations.

EVERYTHING is on the down slope already real economy wise ... it's just a matter of waiting for the trigger now. The stock market is extremely over-valued and overdue for a massive correction. A lot of made-up value is suddenly going to evaporate and many currencies are going to be re-pegged to be worth FAR less than before. You can't debase currencies forever to prop up make believe economies. A long time... but not forever. Russia and other countries see the writing on the wall and are stocking up on gold for a reason; not because they are bored or want to make nice gold earrings for their mistresses.

Hence, get some gold as an insurance policy at a bare minimum. If the central banks are stocking up, you better stock up as well. They know what's up with their paper currencies and how worthless they are compared to their current perceived value. The upside of gold is solid at this stage and the downside risk is minimal.

Silver is a bit more of a wild card. I would honestly put money in Bitcoin or maybe a gold-backed crypto vs silver since half the argument it seems about silver is: "It's cheaper than Gold and the common man will use it."

If the aforementioned is the standard for why silver is valuable as a store of value/currency, then crypto is the better fit in the 21st century. Assuming crypto, WHICH crypto is up for debate. I'm exploring gold-backed cryptos right now to see what's out there as well as privacy oriented coins. Real potential in both of those long-term. Bitcoin might end up as the best of the lot but I feel like Bitcoin is phase 1 in the cryptocurrency realm. Like AOL, Netscape, MySpace, etc. All were the overwhelming first big players in their field for a time and all got wiped out by something a bit better and/or had better marketing. BitCoin is still a technology product and if there is one constant with technology, things can change VERY fast in EITHER direction.

Anyway, this next possible pullback in Gold might be the last chance to get in before the major run-up to 2-3k. I'm waiting to see what happens with this trade deal/G20 stuff this week before I make any moves. If it breaches 1450, I'll probably pull the trigger on the assumption there won't be a significant correction for a while.

Anyone who wants to poke holes in my theories or offer constructive criticism, PLEASE DO!
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 12:06 AM by The Black Knight.)
06-26-2019 11:36 PM
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Post: #386
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Physical cash you can hold is always better than digital.
06-28-2019 05:44 AM
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Sandstorm Offline
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Post: #387
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(06-28-2019 05:44 AM)SilentOne Wrote:  Physical cash you can hold is always better than digital.

Not in Venezuela

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06-28-2019 06:24 AM
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Sword and Board Offline
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Post: #388
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I remember reading some preppers collecting Silver/Gold for a SHTF scenario. I could wrong but I would have thought bullets and food would be a more usable currency in a lawless world of starving people.
07-01-2019 05:06 AM
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Post: #389
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(06-26-2019 11:36 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  4. Corporate debt crisis -

This is where it's at. My best guess is that it's in the next 3-6 years.

Possibly 2, if there is a mini quake and then the back breaker is after the 2024 election.

Notice that it's bubbling up with worldwide sovereign debt crises as well.

I think all we can say for sure is that major confidence loss in every major "institution" will occur in the next 10-12 years, we're talking paradigm shift.

Get your passport ready!
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2019 08:05 PM by Kid Twist.)
07-01-2019 08:04 PM
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Lost in Transfiguration Offline
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Post: #390
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I own some Credit Suisse gold bars (of the smaller variety). As far as coins I have some Eagles, and Austrian Philharmonics.

With silver I just buy anything that's 90 percent or more silver.
07-02-2019 01:29 AM
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Post: #391
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I closed out the majority of the trade I mentioned a couple of posts above. I ended up straddling both sides of GLD and SLV. Everything was closed at a small profit except my GLD 130$ Dec 19 PUTS was a 50% loss and I sold half of my SLV 19$ Dec 19 Calls at 2x. Which was also the largest position.

Overall I am in the green enough for the other half of my SLV 19$ Dec 19 Calls to ride for free.

I wish I knew more about options. I know I did a couple of things wrong that hurt me but this time it seems to have paid off.

One lesson was not to use market orders at the open of a market when the volume is thin.


I've bought a decent bit of physical gold and silver in the last month, from the low 1300s to low 1400s. I think Silver is still a solid buy here.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 12:15 PM by Jaydublin.)
08-07-2019 12:13 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #392
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(08-07-2019 12:13 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  One lesson was not to use market orders at the open of a market when the volume is thin.

Never use market orders . . . period. Market orders are just a license for market makers to steal. Even during options expiration Friday when I absolutely had to roll a position, I would use price discovery with limit orders over the course of the day rather than risk using a market order.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 12:38 PM by Tail Gunner.)
08-07-2019 12:37 PM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #393
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Wow, gold is currently trading over $1500 and silver over $17.
08-07-2019 12:44 PM
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Foolsgo1d Offline
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Post: #394
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Yeah Trends in the News stated it would quite a bit ago and it will be the new normal. People are now going to start buying a lot more gold and silver. Could be a runaway train.
08-07-2019 04:45 PM
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