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Poll: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
I own physical Gold
I own physical Silver
I own Both
I own neither
I only own paper metals
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Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #401
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
It is interesting to see the low premiums from online dealers. Also, I've heard that local dealers are buying back more gold/silver than selling. This is far different from in 2009/2010 when premiums were sky high. At one point I remember Apmex didn't even have any silver to sell except numismatics, 1,000 oz bars, and silver shot for industrial use.

Of course this doesn't mean anything. After 6 years of PM smackdowns the average retail investor is just happy to get their money back. They will foam in if prices rise more. This low retail interest could even be a positive. The Kitco Forums used to be widely visited, even 2-3 years after the crash. The visitors dwindled and when we got the spike up in summer of 2016 the forums were popping again immediately "THIS IS IT!". Now, even after this big move the forums are still pretty dead. Any given day the silver forum has only 2-4 threads bumped.

I am personally not buying much now but did buy a little in June. I really loaded up in 2008-2010 then again in 2013-2015. I have grabbed a few miners in August, half positions and looking for another opportunity to buy in. Maybe I'll get it or maybe I won't. I had a few positions from 2013-2015 but I wanted to have more exposure incase this thing runs like it did after the 2008 crash. After the crash gold and miners spiked up and never had much of a correction until they crashed in 2011.

I have been playing around with SLV call options and making some really nice profits though.
09-03-2019 02:36 PM
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Deepdiver Offline
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Post: #402
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SIZ201...Extending/

SIZ2019 Dec2019 Comex Silver Futures closed today at 19.39

Wave 5 = 1.62 Times Wave 1 0.98 = 1.59 or 16.97+1.59 = 18.56 so 1.62 extension exceeded

Wave 5 2.62 Extension Times Wave 1 ... 0.98 times 2.62 = 16.97 + 2.58 = 19.53 the next target on the way to retesting the 1 August 2016 swing high of 21.60

Silver Coins Melt Values:

http://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html


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(This post was last modified: 09-03-2019 05:46 PM by Deepdiver.)
09-03-2019 05:44 PM
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zoom Offline
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Post: #403
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
If you have the space, then it's better to buy physical gold and silver rather than an ETF. The ETFs don't get properly audited and a lot of commentators believe that these funds don't have as much bullion in their vaults as they claim to.
09-04-2019 07:41 AM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #404
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
^^^ that all depends on the purpose of buying it. When I was younger I loaded up on silver bullion and it really became a hassle. There are huge spreads in premiums(usually) and don’t believe people when they say you get the premium back on the sell, you don’t.

Anything that is a true insurance policy should be physical if possible. I have been dabbling with onegold recently but their security seems meh(they let me change my phone number for 2F authentication through a quick email lol). But I like the etfs for short term gainz and obvious playing with options.
09-04-2019 04:45 PM
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Jaydublin Offline
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Post: #405
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
An update the physical market from personal experience.

I mentioned a couple posts ago that retail investors haven't been investing. Dealers are letting PMs go at rock bottom premiums.

I just got an email form a pretty decent sized online dealer and they are unloading jewelry grade and AU grade pre1933 gold AT SPOT. Even MS 62 10$ double eagles at like 30$ over spot.

These coins aren't exactly rare but when I was big into buying physical PMs back in 2008-2012 I never saw anything like this, not with pre1933 gold or with any of the modern stuff.

Maybe this run will keep going but at the moment the retail investors just are not buying and are actually probably dumping at their break even number. It has been 6 years of pain for a lot of these folks and they are happy to get out even.
09-04-2019 09:00 PM
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Polniy_Sostav Offline
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Post: #406
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
@jaydublin

Since you re quite knowledgeable I have a question for you

I have various type of fractional gold coins as part of both collection and investment. Usually 6.45g 20 francs format from various countries , models etc.
Some are bullions (2-5 % above premium) some are "semi numismatics" (10% or more) and some are clearly numismatics although they always hold their spot value (up to 300% premium)

We recently had a raise of the price of gold , which means less people buy and if they buy , they usually are beginners going into the safest bullions. I even notice a trend , which is to buy 1/10 fractional gold even if the premium is much higher than a 1oz

My question is
If gold goes up , why premiums on numismatic coins (with huge premiums) do not crash ?
If gold goes down (haven't lived any period like this as i am a rather recent collector) , do premiums on numismatic coins grow , as there is more room for such market and less demand on bullion ?
Yesterday 10:10 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #407
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
(Yesterday 10:10 AM)Polniy_Sostav Wrote:  @jaydublin

Since you re quite knowledgeable I have a question for you

I have various type of fractional gold coins as part of both collection and investment. Usually 6.45g 20 francs format from various countries , models etc.
Some are bullions (2-5 % above premium) some are "semi numismatics" (10% or more) and some are clearly numismatics although they always hold their spot value (up to 300% premium)

We recently had a raise of the price of gold , which means less people buy and if they buy , they usually are beginners going into the safest bullions. I even notice a trend , which is to buy 1/10 fractional gold even if the premium is much higher than a 1oz

My question is
If gold goes up , why premiums on numismatic coins (with huge premiums) do not crash ?
If gold goes down (haven't lived any period like this as i am a rather recent collector) , do premiums on numismatic coins grow , as there is more room for such market and less demand on bullion ?

It is all about supply and demand. If retail buyers flood the market, then premiums on numismatic gold coins grow. If retail buyers keep shy of the market, then premiums on numismatic gold coins shrink. Right now, institutional investors are driving the price of gold instead of retail buyers (unlike in 2009-2011), so there are great deals on numismatic (historical) gold coins -- many of which have a premium similar to newly minted coins. This is just one example:

Quote:An anomaly currently exists that only a couple years ago could not have been imagined. 10 years ago, it would have been considered an impossibility!

Back in 2010, when gold traded at around $1,000 per ounce, "numismatic" pre-1933 gold coins traded for huge premiums. This happened because there was fear that the Obama administration might go the route of FDR and confiscate bullion. That did not happen, but we did get to see a precursor to what might happen should (when?) confiscation become a reality.

My focus is currently on the pre-1933 MS-62 and MS-63 $10 and $20 Liberties and the MS-62, MS-63, and MS64 Saint Gaudens.

Back in 2008, these coins were "bid," meaning dealers were willing to pay between $1,600 and $1,800 while spot gold was only $1,000. You could currently say the jumping off point to the highest-grade numismatics is at the MS-63 grade for Liberties and MS-64 for Saints. The next grades higher carry much higher premiums. Please keep in mind that these grades of MS-63 and MS-64 are way up the totem pole and represent extremely high grading – and thus rarity.

Over the last year, premiums for these coins compressed, particularly the MS-60 to MS-62 range. These could be purchased for roughly the cost of a current year American gold eagle or Canadian maple leaf. Now, MS-63 Libs and MS-64 Saints have seen premiums shrink to levels not much higher than that of modern gold eagles. This offers an incredible opportunity whether you are an outright buyer or want to swap current bullion into rare and uncirculated coin. Current pricing is stupid cheap!

Why have premiums collapsed? Because since 2011, the bear market in precious metals has destroyed sentiment and created sellers who became worn out, just as a severe bear market in real estate might reduce or wipe out premiums for waterfront vs. inland property. The premiums will once again expand, but confidence and desire to own must occur for the premiums to begin to come back. Should a whiff of confiscation come about or the prices simply continue to move, good luck finding ANY product resembling the spot price of gold...

https://mailchi.mp/futuremoneytrends/ret...6c2471da81


BTW: Paying the higher prices for fractional-ounce coins is a waste of money. Spend your money an actual gold, not premiums. Obviously, buying numismatic gold coins is a great investment if the premiums are similar to those of newly minted coins, because there is no real downside risk (if uncirculated condition).
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 12:54 PM by Tail Gunner.)
Yesterday 12:46 PM
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Sandstorm Offline
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Post: #408
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Premiums should be avoided at all cost (pardon the pun)

Because the only people who will buy it off you later and pay the premium are other retail investors. But how will you sell to them? Face to face in the street? On eBay? On Craigslist? eBay will rape you for 10% plus you run the risk of the buyer being a scammer, making a claim with eBay who always sides with the buyer, and either not returning it, or returning you fake gold or returning it scratched, or just wasting your time and your eBay reputation.

Craigslist you'll probably be mugged and have it stolen when you meet them... any other method seems unlikely. Best way would be through a PM forum where you sell to highly repped members and become a highly repped member yourself.

Otherwise, the safest way is to sell it back to the bullion dealer you bought it from and they will not pay you any of the premium, in fact they will not even pay you spot; they will pay under spot so they can make the difference.

So, buying beautiful PAMP Suisse gold bars is utterly pointless. Buy plain-Jane bars from your national mint.

Also, if you look at the price of buying a 1 kilo bar, vs a 500g, vs a 250g bar... it's all about the same (ie, 250g is a quarter of the price of the 1 kilo bar)

The smaller you go, the higher the premium and buying "cool" products like the Valcambi "Combi-Bars" is utterly pointless.

The difference between a 10g bar and a 100g bar is huge in terms of price per gram.

The very smallest size gold to buy in my opinion is 1 oz coins (preferably in bulk) and 50g bars at the very smallest. 250g would be better but obviously they are quite big-baller! The worlds wealthy all now just buy 1 kilo bars and keep them vaulted.

You have to really consider what the purpose will be - if it's simply an insurance hedge against a collapsing stock market/dollar devaluation, then bigger bars are your best bet. You just want as much gold as cheaply as possible.

If you may need to sell some as price moves up, then 1oz coins are easy to shift and obviously much smaller weight, so nicely fractional. Same for 50g bars (about 1.5 oz)

In a "Mad-Max" scenario, where ATMs have stopped working, power is out, mobs are terrorizing the streets... well, it's likely in that scenario that the entire financial system has collapsed in some way, so the price of gold is probably sky-high - your 1oz coin is now possibly worth $2500-$25000! (who fucking knows at that point)

If that's the case you'd be better off with a stack of silver dollars. They too will be worth more ($50-$250) but it's better trying to buy a weeks supply of food with a silver coin that asking for change from $10,000s worth of gold!

Best coins would be silver eagles, silver maples, silver Britannias if in the UK. Remember, it just needs to be easily recognizable to average people. Most people don't even know about gold and silver to begin with, so that's another problem to deal with.

Something else often overlooked by "stackers", is that even if ATMs were to shut down like they did in Greece and Argentina, most people will trust cash money above all else. More than they'll understand a silver dollar in this day and age.

So what you should also have is a nice fat-stack of crisp $10, $20 (your country's equivalent currency) hidden away somewhere at home.

That way, if ATMs/power go out, you'll still have a regular supply of money that people still value.

If money fails and goes into hyper-inflation, you've got the silver coins to trade with.

And of course you've got your big bars of gold which have persevered your wealth and can be transferred back into the new fiat (or whatever) when the situation is finally resolved.

And don't ignore Bitcoin - huge gains to be made if it takes off again - it proved very valuable to the people of Venezuela when their currency went down the toilet - VERY important lesson to be learned there.

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Yesterday 02:12 PM
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Polniy_Sostav Offline
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Post: #409
RE: Do you own physical Gold or Silver or Both?
Hello
My strategy at the moment is to collect all 20Francs formats (6.45g) up to 300% premium . This will keep me busy for 5-10 years , with around 40 coins. Only commemorative circulated or circulated and in decent state.
When I find a good deal , I buy a few , and try to sell and make little money.
Example I buy a finnish 20 markkaa 320 euro and try to sell it for 350 and repeat.
With the surplus , I buy bullion such as belgian 20 francs , french 20 francs , italian umberto s and vittorio emmanuelle s, ,swiss vrenelis etc which are also part of that list. You can find them for 5% premium big max , and 2% or less with a good research on the internet. So they fall in the same category than the eagles , the maples , etc but as an individual proud of European history and its various nations I prefer to buy such coins.

I also have a philarmonic 1oz which operates as pure bullion , and i could profit from selling it , but the % allocated to bullions ( LMU gold or modern such as philarmonic , eagles , maples etc) is too low compared to my % of numismatic coins so I ve decided to keep it.

My exit strategy is to keep my whole collection and its value for my kids. The speculative transactions are made to make little money and to consolidate my trading skills.

I usually use forum and sell to other forumers , this is the best. Where I live there is 0 dealer so I have to do it all this way.

I know that dealers would take back coins with a decent spread only for a few models. Most of numismatic stuff have a big spread and they more or less take everything back at spot. Which obviously isn't good when you bought coins for 100 or 200% premium.

With the "fall" of numismatics as a hobby I think we are going to see a lot of gold coins with big premiums crashing in the future. But this is just my theory.

All of what you two made sense but my main question was how does the premium evolve in case of a big raise of gold for coins which have a 100-200% premium , and same question when gold crashes.
I know for a fact that the 20 francs napoleon is commanding a much bigger premium when gold rises than during quiet times because there is "trust".

I do not have a huge budget (all in all maybe 15k max when collection will be finished in a few years ) so think it s a better thing to have various type of coins and premiums to eventually get rid of as it covers most of the outcomes (gold up or down)

If i had much more wealth , i would definitely buy bars only or a bunch of 1oz coins with discount and 2% premium as i would simply hedge myself against inflation , but i am at a different level at the moment where i combine collecting as a hobby and hedging myself against inflation.

PS : I Ignore bitcoin , because i do not understand anything about the technicality - and i also do not want to be tracked. There are plenty of ways to use cash only when buying coins , noone knows you have them.
(This post was last modified: Today 07:52 AM by Polniy_Sostav.)
Today 07:41 AM
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