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Handsome Creepy Eel Offline
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Post: #51
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Excellent summary, NTP. I have two questions in regards to this:

A) Regardless of the obvious (un)sustainability of FED printing money in this way, it seems to me that another significant problem is also that none of this money reaches actual companies or citizens to stimulate the economy, but instead just gets bandied around by those buying the bonds and pumped into various securities bubbles.
Is fractional reserve banking to blame for this? It seems that if it weren't for that, the FED could simply say "ok government, here's a trillion dollars for you" (subject to same limits of sustainability and inflation, of course) and have the government spread it around through various projects. What changes would result if someone abolished fractional reserve banking tomorrow?

B) While I was digging around Rand Paul's refusal to support Donald Trump in his promise to Audit the FED, I have been told that "the FED has already been audited in 2011, producing the following Government Accountability Office July 2011 Report, which means that any further auditing is simply for theatrical purposes".

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(This post was last modified: 02-26-2016 01:20 PM by Handsome Creepy Eel.)
02-26-2016 01:16 PM
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Post: #52
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Who wants to bet that the market tanks and the Fed decides to implement QE4. But this time, QE4 is helicopter money (ie everyone gets cash)?

Everyone with a social security number will get $1000 each month from the fed for a certain amount of time?

Could this be what ultimately destroys the world economy?

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02-26-2016 06:45 PM
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rpg Offline
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Post: #53
RE: USA heading into a depression.
What will destroy the world economy is a huge catastrophe that breaks the bank. Think Fukishima/tsunami kind of thing. We are in such debt we will just sink instead of weather the storm.
02-26-2016 08:43 PM
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Post: #54
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(02-26-2016 01:16 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Excellent summary, NTP. I have two questions in regards to this:

A) Regardless of the obvious (un)sustainability of FED printing money in this way, it seems to me that another significant problem is also that none of this money reaches actual companies or citizens to stimulate the economy, but instead just gets bandied around by those buying the bonds and pumped into various securities bubbles.
Is fractional reserve banking to blame for this? It seems that if it weren't for that, the FED could simply say "ok government, here's a trillion dollars for you" (subject to same limits of sustainability and inflation, of course) and have the government spread it around through various projects. What changes would result if someone abolished fractional reserve banking tomorrow?

B) While I was digging around Rand Paul's refusal to support Donald Trump in his promise to Audit the FED, I have been told that "the FED has already been audited in 2011, producing the following Government Accountability Office July 2011 Report, which means that any further auditing is simply for theatrical purposes".


Handsome Creepy Eel, your points are noteworthy and your question about what if the Federal Reserve was abolished is so astute, that I will provide a general response to your points here and link it to a more detailed response here:

https://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-53234...pid1233006

I recommend that you look at the audit produced in 2009 after the bond debauchery in 2008. Congressmen Paul led this and that influenced the 2011 report. I am of the opinion that another audit of the Federal Reserve will produce very little (and they will point to the 2011 audit). It also depends what they would audit. If they choose to look at detailed transactions at the Federal Reserve window at the Bank of New York and then the connection to the ESF, watch people disappear. I think there is close to a zero percent chance of this happening. One thing is that those involved in the auditing do not know what questions to ask. There are a few out there that do and some Congressional members are aware of them (one was jailed unreasonable for a decade and part of the condition for his release (in my opinion) was based on not discussing, supporting or examining certain areas directly). The pressure exerted on these Congressmen would be tremendous and oppressive.

To more directly address your point with the money not reaching businesses and individuals, you are correct. The bottom line is there will be less domestic capital formation and wages will eventually be reduced (relative to purchasing power) and the number of working poor (slaves) will increase as the decades roll by. The idea of the government (or some central authority) redistributing what has been given to the central authority is economically flawed. The issue as it relates to prosperity for the citizenry is the proper allocation of capital (determined by a free market (and our markets are not free, but rather manipulated) in an efficient manner based on the desires of the market (citizenry). Therefore, one of the biggest problems now is the mis-allocation of capital. This will connect to capital flight in its many forms and it will come full circle in our discussion with financial repression (to deal with the capital flight that central authorities are against as it erodes their ability to control). It is not just a U.S. issue (FACTA); it is a world-wide issue (GACTA).

The large issue that you will see on the screen of life as a result will be the contraction of credit that is being used to carry stocks, bonds and other investment instruments. Margin call will lead to forced sales which will lead to weaken prices which will lead to more forced sales which lead to weaken prices and on and on. What you will see in the headlines is: Market Panic.

Fractional reserve banking can work and it actually did from 1913-1934. If you look at the strength of the dollar from that period you will notice some variation, but stable for the most part, it is after 1934 that the nose dive occurred. Section 10 of the Federal Reserve act of 1934 allowed the Federal Reserve through the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase foreign currencies, financial securities, and other financial instruments in order to control the dollar’s value and conduct open market operations without the assistance or approval of the Federal Reserve. So, to answer your question, no the Federal Reserve is not directly to blame per its original design. But that was then and it was transformed in 1934, so there after was a different story. If you want to study more history examine records of former Federal Reserve Governor Eugene Meyer (who resigned in 1933) calling out FDR stating in the Washington Post that the Federal Reserve that was established in 1913 was no longer the same and would not function properly. He further stated that the modified Federal Reserve had been shorn of its power to formulate an independent credit policy and it could no longer regulate the flow of funds into and out of this country, as it did when the United States was on the gold Standard. So, rather than formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve implemented policies devised by others, principally the U.S. Treasury. This may seem like splitting hairs, but it is critical. I will expand with a larger point. I put forth that the Federal Reserve is presented as the wizard, but it is in front of the curtain with Dorthy and the gang, to hide the Wizard behind the curtain which is the ESF. I will not get into it here, but the ESF grew much larger and expanded its´ influence after the inception of the OSS in the 1940´s.

In the near future, I would not be surprised to see the Federal Reserve abolished (or perhaps transformed) and many will yell, hurray. This has always be an option before loss of faith or a currency collapse. The debt can be transformed or wiped away and a new Treasury Note (TN), as opposed to a Federal Reserve Note (FRN), will be created by the Department of the Treasury and this will be like a domestic U.S. Dollar. Watch for this new TN to be devalued and Americans feel what the rest of the world does when they do not have a reserve currency status. There will be games played and it will appear to be backed by gold (like the Euro was in its inception by 15% and then down to 10% and 5%, but a holder of a Euro note could never say, I want some of that yellow stuff for my piece of paper) and the games will evolve. But what about all of the FRN´s that are stored by the pallet in (central) bank vaults in other nations? That will be interesting. I am inclined to think that they will be considered an International dollar (ID) that will not be accepted as legal tender within the U.S., but can be used outside of the U.S. because nations tend to go to war over trade issues and this would be a big one.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2016 03:18 AM by NASA Test Pilot.)
02-27-2016 03:18 AM
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debeguiled Offline
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Post: #55
RE: USA heading into a depression.
It's threads like this that remind me I miss Zelcorpion going to bat for outlier concepts like interest free economics.

“That sig BTW is a very asinine anti-family anti-parent quote. You live in a country where 40% of children grow up without a biological father, yet somehow “the greatest burden a child must bear is the unlived life of its parents”? Sorry but this is fruity Boomer nonsense.”

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02-27-2016 04:18 PM
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #56
RE: USA heading into a depression.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04...ithin-year

Jim Rogers: There's A 100% Probability Of A U.S. Recession Within A Year


Quote:Legendary billionaire investor Jim Rogers is certain that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next 12 months. During an interview on BloombergTV, he explained why he had covered his position in the Japanese yen, saying that the nation is "printing a lot" of the currency. Rogers also warned that there is a "100 percent" probability of a recession in the U.S. within a year, and with debt levels very high across the nation, this is a grave concern.

In fact, we've been in a non-stop depression, which means things are about to get a whole lot worse. Check out M2 Money velocity, just hit fresh new lows;

   

Literally the economy has never stopped slowing down under Obama except briefly during 2009 when there was a huge stimulus, and ever since then we've been bleeding out. Now the wound is going to be opened up again because it was never sutured, you can expect the coming poverty with world record population to cause upheaval like you've never seen.

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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2016 04:17 PM by Samseau.)
03-04-2016 04:16 PM
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zeitgenosse Offline
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Post: #57
RE: USA heading into a depression.
The US is not in a recession, it s much more simple : it s flat broke
03-04-2016 04:59 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #58
RE: USA heading into a depression.
There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

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(This post was last modified: 03-04-2016 05:07 PM by robreke.)
03-04-2016 05:05 PM
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Post: #59
RE: USA heading into a depression.
^What stats are you looking at?

23% Unemployment rate is not a sign of a healthy economy.

National debt in the trillions, which equates to $60K per person.

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03-04-2016 05:25 PM
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Post: #60
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-04-2016 05:05 PM)robreke Wrote:  There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

It's pretty obvious you don't know what money velocity is. Go look it up on investopedia and get back to the chart I just posted. The USA is a non-stop downward spiral right now.

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03-04-2016 09:25 PM
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Post: #61
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-04-2016 09:25 PM)Samseau Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 05:05 PM)robreke Wrote:  There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

It's pretty obvious you don't know what money velocity is. Go look it up on investopedia and get back to the chart I just posted. The USA is a non-stop downward spiral right now.

I had to look it up myself. So what the graph you posted is showing is that money is moving to somewhere and just stopping. This would line up well with the news stories of corporations building up stagnant cash reserves overseas, or 'the rich getting richer' aka...not reinvesting...and lines up with stock investors pulling out and just keeping cash in the bank 'aka on the sidelines'

People do not have enough confidence in the economy to invest in it, tits all in. I can see that skepticism even in working people my age (30s). No trust of employers, no trust of job security, no trust that social security will exist to retire with, no trust that an employer pension plan won't get stolen, liquidated or otherwise pirated.

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03-04-2016 10:35 PM
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rpg Offline
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Post: #62
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-04-2016 10:35 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 09:25 PM)Samseau Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 05:05 PM)robreke Wrote:  There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

It's pretty obvious you don't know what money velocity is. Go look it up on investopedia and get back to the chart I just posted. The USA is a non-stop downward spiral right now.

I had to look it up myself. So what the graph you posted is showing is that money is moving to somewhere and just stopping. This would line up well with the news stories of corporations building up stagnant cash reserves overseas, or 'the rich getting richer' aka...not reinvesting...and lines up with stock investors pulling out and just keeping cash in the bank 'aka on the sidelines'

People do not have enough confidence in the economy to invest in it, tits all in. I can see that skepticism even in working people my age (30s). No trust of employers, no trust of job security, no trust that social security will exist to retire with, no trust that an employer pension plan won't get stolen, liquidated or otherwise pirated.
You read my mind. Trust has been eroded to nil and with the oil industry collapse due to the Saudis fucking everybody by whoring out the price, we are not in a good way. Wait until September, October. It is going to look like shit and Hillary is going to own it.
03-04-2016 10:44 PM
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #63
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Obama's economy:

[Image: 20160301_obama_0.jpg]

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03-05-2016 12:51 PM
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Post: #64
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-04-2016 10:35 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 09:25 PM)Samseau Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 05:05 PM)robreke Wrote:  There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

It's pretty obvious you don't know what money velocity is. Go look it up on investopedia and get back to the chart I just posted. The USA is a non-stop downward spiral right now.

I had to look it up myself. So what the graph you posted is showing is that money is moving to somewhere and just stopping. This would line up well with the news stories of corporations building up stagnant cash reserves overseas, or 'the rich getting richer' aka...not reinvesting...and lines up with stock investors pulling out and just keeping cash in the bank 'aka on the sidelines'

People do not have enough confidence in the economy to invest in it, tits all in. I can see that skepticism even in working people my age (30s). No trust of employers, no trust of job security, no trust that social security will exist to retire with, no trust that an employer pension plan won't get stolen, liquidated or otherwise pirated.

In situations like this, to prevent corps and banks from sitting on the money, why does it not make sense to increase government deficit spending (such as bail-out packages) and subcontract out public works to big businesses / independent contractors? I read a lot of conservatives ask the question "well who decides what is the proper way to spend the money" and that such policy creates "mixed signals regarding proper economic activity." However, whats the alternative? It seems that when the economic activity is down / money-velocity is down, what alternate solutions are there?

I acknowledge that the government is currently in a deep deficit hole - the issue is that the spending has been going into the wrong sectors (such as welfare, healthcare, etc) rather than large infrastructure projects / scientific research / etc. that could have a strong effect on the economy by increasing demand for big finance and loans. Its true that Obama's subsidies for solar power have greatly led to failure, but arguably projects / subsidies such as that may be effective in keeping banks / corps from sitting on cash, no?
(This post was last modified: 03-05-2016 10:01 PM by fortysix.)
03-05-2016 10:00 PM
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Fast Eddie Offline
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Post: #65
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-05-2016 10:00 PM)se7en Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 10:35 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 09:25 PM)Samseau Wrote:  
(03-04-2016 05:05 PM)robreke Wrote:  There is no recession or depression now. The economic figures, economic activity and financial market action do not support that.

If you want to see what a recession looks like, study 2008/ early 2009.

The argument could be made, very accurately I think, that there's too much easy money floating around which is, in essence propping up much of the economy and financial markets. That money, of course came from the Fed pumping newly created dollars out of whole cloth into the economy.

Will the chickens come home to roost on this inflation of the monetary supply, it's subsequent stimulation and propping up of the economy and markets, and the massive debt it took to achieve that? I think they must.

Then, you have your recession or very likely, a depression. We're not there yet.

It's pretty obvious you don't know what money velocity is. Go look it up on investopedia and get back to the chart I just posted. The USA is a non-stop downward spiral right now.

I had to look it up myself. So what the graph you posted is showing is that money is moving to somewhere and just stopping. This would line up well with the news stories of corporations building up stagnant cash reserves overseas, or 'the rich getting richer' aka...not reinvesting...and lines up with stock investors pulling out and just keeping cash in the bank 'aka on the sidelines'

People do not have enough confidence in the economy to invest in it, tits all in. I can see that skepticism even in working people my age (30s). No trust of employers, no trust of job security, no trust that social security will exist to retire with, no trust that an employer pension plan won't get stolen, liquidated or otherwise pirated.

In situations like this, to prevent corps and banks from sitting on the money, why does it not make sense to increase government deficit spending (such as bail-out packages) and subcontract out public works to big businesses / independent contractors? I read a lot of conservatives ask the question "well who decides what is the proper way to spend the money" and that such policy creates "mixed signals regarding proper economic activity." However, whats the alternative? It seems that when the economic activity is down / money-velocity is down, what alternate solutions are there?

I acknowledge that the government is currently in a deep deficit hole - the issue is that the spending has been going into the wrong sectors (such as welfare, healthcare, etc) rather than large infrastructure projects / scientific research / etc. that could have a strong effect on the economy by increasing demand for big finance and loans. Its true that Obama's subsidies for solar power have greatly led to failure, but arguably projects / subsidies such as that may be effective in keeping banks / corps from sitting on cash, no?

Deficit spending and companies sitting on money are two separate issues. Increasing deficit spending does nothing to motivate private investment, in fact it tends to decrease it further. Those fears of the future that Dr. Howard mentioned would just get reinforced by accelerating the path to financial ruin through debt.
03-06-2016 04:07 AM
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All or Nothing Offline
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Post: #66
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-04-2016 10:35 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  People do not have enough confidence in the economy to invest in it, tits all in. I can see that skepticism even in working people my age (30s). No trust of employers, no trust of job security, no trust that social security will exist to retire with, no trust that an employer pension plan won't get stolen, liquidated or otherwise pirated.

This is just due to lack of growth in the economy.

There is nothing to invest in, in the USA. The Dot-com bubble has passed and Dot-com 2.0 is just passing right now. We have traces of virtual reality and AI, but both are undeveloped.

We have just come off of literally having the human population and GDP per capita having explosive growth for over a century. Do you honestly believe that we can continue to grow the economy perpetually at a high rate?

I'm not worried.
03-06-2016 05:14 AM
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Post: #67
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Interesting Newsletter today:

Why Interest Rates Are NEVER Going Back to Normal

BY BILL BONNER, CHAIRMAN, BONNER & PARTNERS, BALTIMORE –

Let’s see… U.S. corporate earnings have been going down for three quarters in a row.

The median household income is lower than it was 10 years ago.

And now JPMorgan Chase has increased its estimated risk of a recession to about one in three.

These things might make sober investors wonder: Is this a good time to pay some of the highest prices in history for U.S. stocks?

Apparently, they don’t think about it…

Grotesque Mutants

Yesterday, U.S. stocks rose again, after the Fed announced that it would go easy on “normalizing” interest rates.

The Dow rose 156 points, putting it in positive territory for 2016.

Hooray! Investors – at least those who passively track the index – are even for the year. And with more central bank fixes, maybe they’ll be able to keep their heads above water for the rest of 2016. Good luck with that!

You may recall our prediction: The Fed will NEVER return to a “normal” interest rate.

Why not?

Many Wall Street analysts say the Fed’s move to bring interest rates to a more normal level – after seven years of ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy) – was “too early.”

We think it was too late. The Fed has already distorted too much for too long.

Its EZ money policies have created a hothouse of speculation, mistakes, and misallocation of resources.

The financial plants that grew up in that environment – grotesque mutants that require huge doses of liquidity – cannot survive a change of seasons.

But these plants are big. And powerful.

Washington... the health care industry... housing... Wall Street... They control the U.S. government, the bureaucracy, and major economic sectors – notably the $1 trillion-a-year security industry.

What they need – what the entire economy needs – is a correction. Excess debt must be purged. That’s what credit cycles, bankruptcies, and depressions are for.

“Normal” includes corrections. But the feds can’t let it happen.

They’ve staked their careers – and their fortunes – on the myth that they can tame the credit cycle… and prevent serious setbacks. They’re not going to give up now and admit defeat. They’re not going to let their major crony friends – or their campaign contributors – go broke.
Freaky Finances

Yes, the feds created this freakish financial world. They cannot fix it because they want it to stay broken. So what if it doesn’t make the typical family better off? It makes THEM – the feds and their cronies in the Deep State – better off. And that’s what really matters.

In these Diary entries, we have shown how the system has become “extractive” rather than productive.

In a normal, healthy economy, people work, save, invest, and build real wealth one dollar at a time. But today’s dollar is different. And the economy is different, too. It runs on credit, not real savings, and builds debt – not wealth.

Instead of encouraging savings – which is what you need to make progress – it penalizes thrift. Over the past 10 years, U.S. savers have lost nearly $8 trillion, extracted from them by the Fed’s ZIRP.

While savers were punished, borrowers were rewarded.

Since 1980, the U.S. economy has added about $50 trillion in excess debt – above and beyond the real output that can comfortably sustain it.

This $50 trillion came not from honest work and saving. Instead, it was conjured up by banks – out of thin air.

And now, the productive Main Street economy must pay interest… and principle... on that debt – effectively extracting real wealth from the real economy and sending it to Wall Street and other favored industries.

The scam is so elegant that not one person in 1,000 understands how it works. We’ve been studying it for years, and we’re still in awe. But the result is obvious: Honest working people struggle to stay in the same place, as real wealth goes to the elite.
Scammy Policies

The plain people may not understand it, but they don’t like it. And they count on Donald J. Trump to do something about it.

Alas, even the best swindle runs into trouble. The debt burden crushes the life out of the real economy. Productive sectors sink into the mud. Manufacturing disappears. Business slows. Trade slows. Borrowing slows.

And soon, the feds are paying people to borrow! As Chris Lowe reported in Wednesday’s Market Insight, about one-third of developed country government debt – worth roughly $7 trillion – is now trading at negative yields.

And then, even more elegance…

With the world economy slowing down, central banks adapt to the world they created.

How?

With more scammy policies.

“Global risks bring Fed into line… ,” reads a headline in yesterday’s Financial Times…

The Federal Reserve has scaled back its forecasts for lifting interest rates this year, coming closer into line with market expectations for two quarter-point rises as it flagged up risks to the U.S. outlook from global, financial, and economic developments.

See how it works?

Central banks destroy the real economy with cheap money and extractive policies. Then, as the economy slumps, they need to bring their policies in line with the slumping economy. They need to swear off raising rates back to normal.

And since their policies can never produce real prosperity, they can never produce an economy that can support normal interest rates.

Normal?

Forget it.

Eventually, normal will make a comeback. But not because the Fed wants it. Instead, the markets will normalize – brutally ­– over the Fed’s dead body…

… Which is just the way we’d like it.

Regards,

Signature
Bill Bonner

Further Reading: That $50 trillion of excess debt sloshing around in the U.S. economy like a noose around Washington’s neck. And it could drag the country – and you and your loved ones – down further than most folks dare to imagine.
03-18-2016 03:28 PM
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puckerman Offline
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Post: #68
RE: USA heading into a depression.
The USA's economy hasn't been good since 1999. That was the last time I felt optimistic about my future in my current career.
03-18-2016 11:19 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-05-2016 12:51 PM)Samseau Wrote:  Obama's economy:

[Image: 20160301_obama_0.jpg]

I love ZH as much as the next guy, but some of their data is so bunk.

How do you quantify black inequality?

Another complaint of mine would be when they say something is surging or collapsing then change the scale on their chart to make a 2.3% decline look like Black Tuesday.

Even the comments on their articles point this out.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2016 04:18 AM by The Beast1.)
03-19-2016 04:14 AM
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Samseau Offline
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Post: #70
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-19-2016 04:14 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(03-05-2016 12:51 PM)Samseau Wrote:  Obama's economy:

[Image: 20160301_obama_0.jpg]

I love ZH as much as the next guy, but some of their data is so bunk.

How do you quantify black inequality?

Another complaint of mine would be when they say something is surging or collapsing then change the scale on their chart to make a 2.3% decline look like Black Tuesday.

Even the comments on their articles point this out.

It's probably the Black poverty rate.

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03-19-2016 02:57 PM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #71
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-18-2016 03:28 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Further Reading: That $50 trillion of excess debt sloshing around in the U.S. economy like a noose around Washington’s neck. And it could drag the country – and you and your loved ones – down further than most folks dare to imagine.


That newsletter sums up a lot of observations of what we've been seeing in the stock market charts.

What's even more suspicious is that a lot of liquidity is currently flowing into "safety" investments like precious metals and govt bonds even though a lot of mainstream investment pundits are singing praises for the fed and the market. Treasury notes have had a lot of money pouring into it crushing yields while the stock market continues to rally hard. I'll explain this relationship for people who don't watch the market..normally treasure yields rise when the stock market rises. The reason behind this is that money naturally flows out of safe investments like bonds into the stock market when the market is bullish. However, when yields are getting lower it means money is flowing into bonds inflating bond prices which means either there's a lot of fear in the market or too much liquidty everywhere..or both.

It's all really fishy. Part of the scheme and a big concern is that corporations are essentially borrowing money with low interest rates to buy back their own stock. The QE and low to negative interest rates (in the E.U.) and other stuff cheapens currency and creates a mass of liquidty that has nowhere to go but into the market again and again. It's the fed printing money to stuff into the market when the fundamentals no longer make sense anymore.


Keep in mind it's not just the fed that is doing this but the central bank of europe and Japan are also doing it. The debt ratios in some European countries and Japan are much more severe too.

This is almost a global ponzi scheme of sorts kicked off by the central banks in many countries. What happens when the market actually corrects is anyone's guess.

You can blame Bernanke for a lot of this though. He was talking about doing this as widespread policy way back in the early '00's.

The idea of policies trying to create a permanent bull market is a very scary thing since it's not only unrealistic but when the crash comes it will come hard.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2016 11:14 PM by El Chinito loco.)
03-19-2016 10:22 PM
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blacknwhitespade Offline
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Post: #72
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Are there any signs of another housing bubble? I've been looking into purchasing some property (house or condo), but signs of a coming crash have me worried.
03-19-2016 11:09 PM
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El Chinito loco Offline
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Post: #73
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-19-2016 11:09 PM)blacknwhitespade Wrote:  Are there any signs of another housing bubble? I've been looking into purchasing some property (house or condo), but signs of a coming crash have me worried.

Don't be expecting a bubble like 2008. Mortgage loans are much tighter now. There's less funny money in housing these days. It still depends on your city though. A lot of the housing increases on the west coast (CA and NY mostly) in particular is due to an influx of foreign capital.

The latest banking scam seems to have shifted to endless currency printing (currency devaluation) and forever low interest rates and lax student/consumer loans now.

The student and consumer loan bubble is a real thing though and who knows what kind of economic consequences are attached to that.
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2016 11:20 PM by El Chinito loco.)
03-19-2016 11:19 PM
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Leonard D Neubache Offline
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Post: #74
RE: USA heading into a depression.
Anyone want to dig into unfunded liabilities (state AND federal) as well as the shaky status of the petrodollar?

With the facts in hand, predicting a mere depression would be wild optimism.

God demands of Man responsibility. God demands of Woman vulnerability. These are their curse and blessing alike. Libertianism is to Man as Feminism is to Woman.
03-20-2016 12:05 AM
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blacknwhitespade Offline
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Post: #75
RE: USA heading into a depression.
(03-19-2016 11:19 PM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  
(03-19-2016 11:09 PM)blacknwhitespade Wrote:  Are there any signs of another housing bubble? I've been looking into purchasing some property (house or condo), but signs of a coming crash have me worried.

Don't be expecting a bubble like 2008. Mortgage loans are much tighter now. There's less funny money in housing these days. It still depends on your city though. A lot of the housing increases on the west coast (CA and NY mostly) in particular is due to an influx of foreign capital.

The latest banking scam seems to have shifted to endless currency printing (currency devaluation) and forever low interest rates and lax student/consumer loans now.

The student and consumer loan bubble is a real thing though and who knows what kind of economic consequences are attached to that.

I'm looking in middle and upper-middle class suburbs around Chicago. Property here has been very undervalued, and slowly climbing in value for at least a year now. I've heard rumors that Chicago could join NY/LA/SF/Toronto as a prime area for foreign investment, but haven't really seen proof of that yet. Economy/employment around here is more or less national average, pretty diversified workforce, neighborhoods I'm looking at are desirable for white collar professionals and families.
03-20-2016 12:14 AM
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