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Making Money 2017 Stock Market thread
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #401
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Given the positive divergence in the daily charts and my other analysis make me expect a bounce in the short term.

However, in the long term, I am very bearish. The short term bounce should not exceed all time highs of SP500 and DJI. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis.
10-29-2018 12:16 AM
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white22 Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Anybody catch the TTD dip yesterday or this morning? I added a few shares under$107
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2018 10:19 AM by white22.)
11-09-2018 10:19 AM
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CaptainChardonnay Offline
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Post: #403
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Anyone in Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM)? Long term it looks like a good buy.

"If you meet every day with optimism - if you confront every obstacle with determination - if you refuse to give up, if you never give up, if you face every challenge with confidence and pride - then there is no goal you cannot achieve, and no dream beyond your reach!"
11-11-2018 11:04 PM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #404
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-09-2018 10:19 AM)white22 Wrote:  Anybody catch the TTD dip yesterday or this morning? I added a few shares under$107

Yes, I picked up more TTD shares at $107 in the after hours session last Thursday.

Fantastic company that has a very bright future! From the CEO on the conference call :

"Brands are coming to us directly at a record pace. TV content creators are coming to us directly at a record pace. Our data business has grown 70% year over year. Cross-device has grown three times. Mobile video was up almost 100% and mobile overall is almost half of our revenue, and we saw remarkable 10 times increase in Connected TV yet again."
11-12-2018 04:48 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #405
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-24-2018 06:20 PM)BB1 Wrote:  I just brought Nvida (NVDA) for $193.50 in the after-hours market. They are the clear leader in the AI Revolution.

Sold my NVDA for $170 (12% loss) in the after-hours yesterday after reading their disappointing earnings report. Long term I think they will outperform from here, but over the next couple of quarters I think there are better opportunities.
11-16-2018 08:00 AM
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Denzel
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Post: #406
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
My best deal for this year was CHF/TRY going short at 6.50. Now is around 5.30. And I expect TRY to become still stronger, bouncing back to at least 5.00 with potential to 4.50 within six months.
11-16-2018 08:40 AM
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Prince Charming Offline
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Post: #407
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
GOV
currently at 20% dividend. Could definitely drop more with interest rate increases but the business (goverment property REIT) seems safe to me.

Question is how safe is that dividend should intrest rates increase...

any insights?
11-16-2018 12:06 PM
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Post: #408
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
GOV dropped dramatically some months ago when they were bought. I'm not sure how much lower it'll go but who knows.

I've got big losses on it as I've held it for a few years now. Initially I thought that as a REIT that had only government tenants, it'd be be pretty solid but all my other REITs have outperformed this one.
I'd planned to sell it at least 3 times when it broke back even but each time I held off thinking maybe it'd bounce back more. Wrong move. Now I'm just holding it as a loss for when I need to offsite gains for tax purposes. But sill collecting that dividend. They haven't lowered it since I've owned it.
11-16-2018 01:33 PM
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Sleazy Offline
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Post: #409
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
So far this month:

   
11-19-2018 08:42 PM
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Post: #410
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
PREDICTION: complete bloodbath in the markets today. Futures got destroyed and AAPL and some other big firms got downgraded.

Got popcorn?

We suffer more in our own minds than we do in reality.
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11-20-2018 09:27 AM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #411
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Based on technical analysis?

(11-16-2018 08:40 AM)Endless Escapes Wrote:  My best deal for this year was CHF/TRY going short at 6.50. Now is around 5.30. And I expect TRY to become still stronger, bouncing back to at least 5.00 with potential to 4.50 within six months.
11-22-2018 11:03 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #412
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Surprised how dead this thread has been. The stock market has been tanking lately, and as long as the Fed keeps tightening, it is unlikely to rebound significantly.

Anyone here cashing out?

The real concern is what happens after it tanks - with deficits at 1T per year and interest rates very low, there is little room for monetary and fiscal policy to restimulate the economy.
11-24-2018 05:21 PM
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jbkunt2 Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I agree with the above. The federal debt and deficit is terrifying.

The clown Republicans who tore Obama to shreds for increasing the deficit during a downturn are a disgrace. They have blown it up during relatively rosy economic times.

It’s disgusting.
11-25-2018 02:39 AM
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Swell Offline
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Post: #414
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Hello Stock Market thread.

I'm new to investing and I'm curious that is the general opinion of high dividend stocks?

https://www.suredividend.com/high-monthly-dividends/

"to thrive in that hunger." -Balkan
11-25-2018 09:53 PM
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The Wire Offline
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Post: #415
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-24-2018 05:21 PM)Arado Wrote:  Surprised how dead this thread has been. The stock market has been tanking lately, and as long as the Fed keeps tightening, it is unlikely to rebound significantly.

Anyone here cashing out?

The real concern is what happens after it tanks - with deficits at 1T per year and interest rates very low, there is little room for monetary and fiscal policy to restimulate the economy.


Does it make sense to look into Gold stocks like Barrick Gold?
11-26-2018 07:23 PM
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Arado Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-26-2018 07:23 PM)The Wire Wrote:  Does it make sense to look into Gold stocks like Barrick Gold?

A marketwatch article from early October said that Barrick is part of the BANG gold mining stocks. At the time, the article stated that the big tech stocks were over valued, and since then big tech has fallen while gold stocks have been mixed. Barrick is up significantly since that article was published.

Quote:That brings us to our call of the day from The Felder Report’s Jesse Felder, who suggests going against the crowd with some cheap, anti-passive precious metals miners.

“It looks to me like they have been left for dead and, for this reason, present a terrific opportunity for true value investors, regardless of the bullish case for gold. And if the gold price takes off, today’s BANG share prices will certainly look like an unbelievable bargain in retrospect,” said Felder, in a blog post.

Felder says the so-called BANG (Barrick Gold ABX, +0.84% ABX, -0.75% Agnico Eagle AEM, -0.70% Newmont Mining NEM, +0.03% and Goldcorp GG, +1.49% G, +0.87% ) stocks are trading at their cheapest in decades. Meanwhile, the FANG highfliers (Facebook FB, -0.82% Amazon AMZN, -1.00% Netflix NFLX, -0.94% and Alphabet’s Google GOOGL, -0.85% ) are hitting their highest valuations in history, he notes.

He attributes this to the fact that big tech names dominate ETFs, while mining stocks are far less represented in those passive funds. That‘s laid out in his chart below (Note: Newmont Mining pops up, but in ETFs with hardly any assets, he says):

I'm pretty conflicted about gold, though. From what I know, as long as the Fed keeps tightening (both QT and rising rates), then gold shouldn't spike and should remain relatively calm - it may even go down a bit like it did in 2008 since investors may need to sell gold for liquidity to cover the inevitable stock market drop. Gold miners with significant debt could also suffer.

However, if the Fed starts up QE again and lowers interest rates, gold will probably skyrocket like it did in 2009-2011 when the Fed started QE and people were worried about hyperinflation. Gold will probably go up even beforehand if the Fed hints that it will loosen monetary policy in the near future. The trade war is also another factor - if we tariff 25% on all Chinese goods, could lead to significant inflation and tank the stock market at the same time, so investors will flee to safe havens like gold.

Curious to hear if anyone else has figured out a good strategy to deal with the inconsistent messaging on trade and Fed policy.
(This post was last modified: 11-27-2018 09:34 AM by Arado.)
11-27-2018 08:34 AM
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gework Offline
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Post: #417
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-25-2018 02:39 AM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  I agree with the above. The federal debt and deficit is terrifying.

The clown Republicans who tore Obama to shreds for increasing the deficit during a downturn are a disgrace. They have blown it up during relatively rosy economic times.

It’s disgusting.

The deficit won't go down until the whole thing is either too ridiculous to continue or the game collapses.

When Trump was elected I called:

1) the economy would see good growth based on real fundamentals
2) he would continue to wrack up the defecit

It's electorally impossible to roll back the state in the current environment. Too many people who vote for the conservative in name only parties are dependent on the government.

The US has huge room to take on more debt and will continue to do. Currently the US debt service is about 7% of the budget. Japan is at 25% and still one of the better houses in a bad neighbourhood. Debt and welfare will continue to envelop the entire budget until people abandon the whole thing.

I think we will see a crash in the next few years and another around 2030. With those and the coming social security and muni pension crisis, debt to GDP will head past 250%.

(11-25-2018 09:53 PM)Swell Wrote:  I'm new to investing and I'm curious that is the general opinion of high dividend stocks?

They are generally paid out by big companies that are in mature markets that at best can take market share, like oil, gas and banking. Thus they are not likely to have upstart competitors. If it's a sound market for the future, like energy, then they should be pretty safe. But right now they are mostly overbought and I think we are heading for a crash.

(11-27-2018 08:34 AM)Arado Wrote:  I'm pretty conflicted about gold.

Gold is a hedge against big inflation+. Stock selling and the coming real bloodbath is deflationary - people are chasing dollar's - whose value goes up. The increasing asset liquidations of the increasingly retired population is deflationary.

In the 08 crash most of the QE money didn't come into circulation. It was used to prop up the banks who'd become illiquid. Money velocity went down, so fewer dollars chasing an economy that lagged in slowing to that drying up - deflationary.

The gold rally was due to fear that there would be big inflation due to the QE and stimulus. But all that did was paper over some of the deflationary pressures. It didn't cause inflation. Thus the gold bull run was based on speculation that was wrong.

If we are going into a crash it will again be deflationary. Inflationary forces are more money coming into the real economy and that money moving faster. The Fed can and will be able to paper it over again. QE will return and that's when we'll probably see another unnecessary gold rally based on the feat that this time it really will be the end. But it probably won't be.

I think the only likely scenario in which we'll see dollar inflation is if the world starts dumping their reserve dollars and T-bills, which will only happen if there is something that becomes more valued than the dollar, like the yuan.

So, now gold prices are fair and the gold stocks about the same. If we crash, they will go down like last time, as there will again be a rush to the dollar and away from assets and equities. That would be the best time to buy.

-----

Anyone have any tips on what to buy to sit out until the crash?

"I sold all stocks and went all cash months ago, just in case." - Kurt Eichenwald, 8 Nov 2016
World Stocks Have Underperformed The US By The Most Since The Financial Crisis - 1 Sep 2018
11-28-2018 09:16 AM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #418
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I believe that there will be one more bounce that will exceed 2820 but not reach all time highs. In the short term though (by/before next week), a retrace to 2670-2705 is possible/normal.

I also wrote one and a half month ago that US500 will reach 2000 (it will take a year or so to reach there). I still have the same opinion so I will heavily invest on SPY puts as US500 is bouncing to 2820+. Patience is the key here for buying put options. One exception is if the market turns south from here, and breaks 2600 (Which is a very low probability at this point), then again buying puts is a good idea. As the market approaches to its turning point, I will write another post.

If one believes that market will crash, one should buy SPY put options for Feb or March 2019 but I think it is early (unless US500 crashes below 2600).

These are probabilistic assessments and not market advice.
(10-12-2018 01:54 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Given that both Asian markets and S&P futures are bouncing, I can calculate how low S&P can go down. The number is around 2000 !!! This is probabilistic, of course. If S&P bounces tomorrow to 2790-2865 range but then breaks 2710 later, this scenario will have a much higher probability.

(10-29-2018 12:16 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Given the positive divergence in the daily charts and my other analysis make me expect a bounce in the short term.

However, in the long term, I am very bearish. The short term bounce should not exceed all time highs of SP500 and DJI. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis.
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2018 10:40 PM by Denzel.)
11-28-2018 10:20 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #419
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
What does everyone think about Powell's speech yesterday? The markets went up a bunch thinking that he hinted that rate hikes won't continue next year, though some economists said that was a misinterpretation of his wording.

Or, it could mean the Fed has seen some problems ahead and are not hiking to avoid a major crash. Also, G20 meeting is this weekend between Trump and Xi so that could cause some major movement. Really hard to plan an investment strategy at this point.
11-29-2018 05:23 PM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
If you look at it Treasuries have historically been a lot better hedge than gold. What happened a few months ago where they both fall deeply is a relatively rare event, generally they have a relatively decent inverse correlation. Now seems like as good as a time to buy as any as they have been relatively beat up. Regardless if your thinking long term having a portion of your portfolio in Treasuries seems like a good idea.

It may not be exciting but I know when shit truly hits the fan, odds are in most cases U.S treasuries are going up in value. Especially as we are approaching the 'neutral' rate.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2018 06:39 AM by Road_Less_Taken.)
12-02-2018 06:34 AM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #421
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
The Dow plunged almost 800 points yesterday on uncertainty over the China trade deal.

Part of the yield curve just inverted.

Growth is starting to slow.

Assuming no huge breakthroughs on trade, as long as the Fed doesn't drop interest rates or restart QE, I don't see any rationale to remain in this market. REITs are also likely to take a hit in the near term.
12-05-2018 11:17 AM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(12-05-2018 11:17 AM)Arado Wrote:  The Dow plunged almost 800 points yesterday on uncertainty over the China trade deal.

Part of the yield curve just inverted.

Growth is starting to slow.

Assuming no huge breakthroughs on trade, as long as the Fed doesn't drop interest rates or restart QE, I don't see any rationale to remain in this market. REITs are also likely to take a hit in the near term.

Cash is useless, slow death from inflation. At least buy some short term treasuries, or something. Just don't have your money there collecting dust.
12-05-2018 01:50 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #423
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(12-05-2018 01:50 PM)Road_Less_Taken Wrote:  Cash is useless, slow death from inflation. At least buy some short term treasuries, or something. Just don't have your money there collecting dust.

Obviously cash is just a short term solution - as long as the Fed is tightening, you can get a tolerable 2-3% in CDs and short term treasuries with nearly zero risk, compared with losing money as the stock market and real estate decline. With US shale producers able to kick in with higher oil prices and electric vehicles slowly penetrating the market, I don't see an oil price spike causing inflation like in the 70's. The main inflation risk is from the trade war.

Once monetary policy reverses, obviously we can revisit this thread and see where the opportunity is - maybe stocks, real estate, metals, emerging markets, etc.
12-05-2018 02:54 PM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #424
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
The bounce stopped at 2815. Too bad as it was short of my prediction of 2820+ and I was able to buy only a very small amount of puts and closed my position too early.

My strategy is to buy Jan/Feb SPY puts during the next bounce. I generally buy at three to five different points during the bounce.

If you do not like options, and believe that the market will go further south, you can also take a look at SPSX.


(11-28-2018 10:20 PM)Denzel Wrote:  I believe that there will be one more bounce that will exceed 2820 but not reach all time highs. In the short term though (by/before next week), a retrace to 2670-2705 is possible/normal.

I also wrote one and a half month ago that US500 will reach 2000 (it will take a year or so to reach there). I still have the same opinion so I will heavily invest on SPY puts as US500 is bouncing to 2820+. Patience is the key here for buying put options. One exception is if the market turns south from here, and breaks 2600 (Which is a very low probability at this point), then again buying puts is a good idea. As the market approaches to its turning point, I will write another post.

If one believes that market will crash, one should buy SPY put options for Feb or March 2019 but I think it is early (unless US500 crashes below 2600).

These are probabilistic assessments and not market advice.
(10-12-2018 01:54 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Given that both Asian markets and S&P futures are bouncing, I can calculate how low S&P can go down. The number is around 2000 !!! This is probabilistic, of course. If S&P bounces tomorrow to 2790-2865 range but then breaks 2710 later, this scenario will have a much higher probability.

(10-29-2018 12:16 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Given the positive divergence in the daily charts and my other analysis make me expect a bounce in the short term.

However, in the long term, I am very bearish. The short term bounce should not exceed all time highs of SP500 and DJI. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis.
12-06-2018 01:29 AM
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Post: #425
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(06-07-2018 06:48 PM)BB1 Wrote:  I beleive MongoDB is the pick of the bunch. Developers love MongoDB - they have downloaded more than 30 million copies of the company's free database since 2009, and over 10 million copies in the last 12 months alone.

Mongo is disrupting traditional databases like Oracle, so the growth potential is massive if they are successful.

MongoDB (MDB) released great earnings last week. Year to date the stock has risen from $29 to $85, while many of the more well known tech stocks have been crushed.

From their earning call :

"...we generated revenue of $65 million, a 57% year-over-year increase, which was above the high end of our guidance. We grew subscription revenue 59% year-over-year. Atlas revenue grew more than 300% year-over-year and now represents 22% of revenue. We ended the quarter with over 8,300 customers, up 69% compared to a year ago and we saw strong growth across all major regions, including North America, EMEA and Asia."
12-12-2018 12:55 AM
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