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Making Money 2017 Stock Market thread
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #426
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I've been thinking of expanding my portfolio, my broker charges high margin rates but basically nothing to short the inverse of SPY (SH). Essentially this would be going long the S&P 500. This is my only reasonable option in terms of my long with my extra margin.

Now I'm not hyped on the S&P 500 in general but I'm thinking having some short positions in high beta stocks would help me hedge myself. I was originally thinking a basic idea would be shorting an ETF like SPHB would work perfectly but they are charging interest on it, so it would probably wipe out the gains.

So was thinking shorting stocks that have high betas and correlations to the s&p 500. I was thinking stocks like Amazon, Netflix, Shopify, Square, Autodesk. Basically high risk tech stocks. These stocks are free to short at my broker. Any other ideas?

So it would be long
50% SPY
40% Treasuries
10% short high beta stocks.
(This post was last modified: 12-12-2018 01:53 PM by Road_Less_Taken.)
12-12-2018 01:48 PM
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Lithuanian10 Offline
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Post: #427
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Guys, Eur target 1.1 , GBP target 1,5 .. sell and forget or wait to buy and forget ..GL
(This post was last modified: 12-15-2018 10:11 AM by Lithuanian10.)
12-15-2018 10:10 AM
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Lithuanian10 Offline
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Post: #428
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Oil downtrent long term , SP ATH soon.
12-15-2018 10:12 AM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #429
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I wrote that US500 is headed for 2000 ish in October when everyone is waiting for further highs. I believe more investors consider this possibility now. It will take months to reach there though (With some major bounces after declines)

While I could not forecast every minor details, the last two days have been great for anyone who had put options before. I also followed my own advice of not keeping stocks that broke their long-term tren-dlines. Looking back, this was a wise decision.

My highest probability count is that we should see a lower low soon (it might take a month or so but more like within a week). After that, it will be time for the bulls/calls for a major bounce that will take months to form but we can discuss it when the time comes.

I also checked the chart of TTD. I would expect a bounce soon but my ideal price to consider buying is $92. If the price reaches there (as the assessment is probabilistic), we might discuss further. I believe in the very long term, it is a stock that I should buy.


(11-28-2018 10:20 PM)Denzel Wrote:  If one believes that market will crash, one should buy SPY put options for Feb or March 2019 but I think it is early (unless US500 crashes below 2600).

These are probabilistic assessments and not market advice.
(10-12-2018 01:54 AM)Denzel Wrote:  Given that both Asian markets and S&P futures are bouncing, I can calculate how low S&P can go down. The number is around 2000 !!! This is probabilistic, of course. If S&P bounces tomorrow to 2790-2865 range but then breaks 2710 later, this scenario will have a much higher probability.

(10-29-2018 12:16 AM)Denzel Wrote:  However, in the long term, I am very bearish. The short term bounce should not exceed all time highs of SP500 and DJI. This is the highest possible scenario in my analysis.
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2018 05:30 AM by Denzel.)
12-21-2018 05:19 AM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #430
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
We saw a lower low of 2350 ish on Dec 26 within a week of my last post.

There is a good probability that the market might reach 2200-2300 region (a lower low) in a month or so but it is very difficult to be certain of this as of now. However, I am almost certain that if one starts buying good stocks when the market is below 2450, he will make good money in a few months (although he might be in red for a month or so). Buying in installments is generally a good idea as the market might decline further.

If the market continues to decline below 2300 in a month or so, I would buy stocks AGGRESSIVELY (actually buy calls).

Be greedy when others are fearful!

These are not investment advice but just a discussion of some form of technical analysis.
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2018 05:18 AM by Denzel.)
12-31-2018 05:11 AM
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LawrenceAshford Offline
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Post: #431
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
The problem is assessing what stocks to buy regardless of the market's state. People make money in bull and bear markets and even more people lose their shirts in both. In long bull markets there's a lot more people winning, but that doesn't last.

I like high tech stocks but I've had mixed results. I've had better results just investing in portfolios or using the Acorns app (I had like a 10% return over 6 months).

Any stock picks for 2019 people care to share? I personally like Snap but that's for the next 5-10 years. I think they could be an Apple-like company. And they're cheap so I can buy a lot of shares.
01-03-2019 03:32 PM
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jbkunt2 Offline
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Post: #432
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I think Snap will be dead in three years. “Apple like”? How on Earth?

Instagram are killing them.
01-04-2019 07:01 PM
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SamuelBRoberts Offline
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Post: #433
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I've never met somebody who actually looks at photos on instagram, or is "influenced" by an "influencer" on it.

Am I just out of touch, or is it all bots?

Datasheets: Stretches for Better Posture, Sous-Vide Cooking
01-04-2019 07:29 PM
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LawrenceAshford Offline
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Post: #434
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(01-04-2019 07:01 PM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  I think Snap will be dead in three years. “Apple like”? How on Earth?

Instagram are killing them.

I hear a lot of that.

It's possible.

A lot of people thought Apple would die after Microsoft copied the Macintosh. For a while in the 1990's Apple was pretty close to death. But it was a visionary company and strategically had a lot to offer.

Instagram is winning right now, but that doesn't mean they win. The founders left the company recently. And I don't think Mark Z has a strong vision related to mobile beyond copying everyone else. And trying to purchase their companies.

Again, anything is possible. My opinion is Snap is more likely to transform into one of the leading social media companies. They also are branching into hardware which could pay off in the next 5-10 years.

And anyway, Snap shares are like 5-6$. I can buy a lot of shares.
(This post was last modified: 01-04-2019 07:54 PM by LawrenceAshford.)
01-04-2019 07:40 PM
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djk100 Offline
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Post: #435
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
The safest tech stock that is defensive and has also big growth components is Google. Health care Is also defensive and you could see more money chasing those insurers and pharma
01-04-2019 07:46 PM
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frankyja Offline
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Post: #436
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I would stay away from SNAP or any social media comp. They are on the way down from their all time highs.
01-08-2019 09:08 AM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #437
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
What are your strategies for 2019?

I am really liking the combination of financials and treasuries. When I think of the source of the next financial crises I am struggling to see it being financials again (though I am sure they will take a decent hit), there is also a lot of upside potential. Treasuries are the best hedge out there and the only thing I am confident in if the market tanks. Since my allocation to treasuries is very high the financials also help to combat the interest rate risk.

Short term also very bullish on small caps.
01-08-2019 01:24 PM
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robreke Offline
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Post: #438
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I guess we're posting in the 2017 Stock Market thread now instead of the 2018 Stock market correction thread. Works for me Laugh

Last week we improved a little with the strong up days, but still not an outright buy signal from my indicators, as of today.

I’ve seen a few stocks break out of bases here and there, which is usually a big component if the market is healthy. Many stocks are still "setting up" in technically sound bases. Whether they break out, break down or flat line will be a tell tale sign in the days and weeks going forward.

A snap back rally, which is what we're getting the past few days, is to be expected here. We were coming from oversold conditions and the sentiment we’re coming from was pretty pessimistic, so these conditions can produce a snap back rally.

Adding fuel to the snap-back rally fire, the bearish advisors were now actually a little higher than the bullish advisors during that last leg down. From a contrarian standpoint, this is bullish for the market. So, with many of the formerly bullish advisors throwing in the towel, we're finally seeing a temporary low.

To keep things in perspective,some of the largest rallies happen within bear markets and this may very well be what we’re seeing here. As Yogi Bera said, it ain’t over til it’s over.

These oversold rallies, within cyclical bear markets, average about 8 to 15% so that's what I'm expecting here. That would put us at a target of 2550 to 2660 on the S&P.

When/if the markets rebound to these levels, we’lll reassess and see if we’re looking at another leg down, or a possible V shaped recovery (more doubtful in my opinion)

To illustrate this point, In 1998, we were off about 18% before the market had its sudden 500+ point meltdown in one day (on the chart below, the red down candle occurring there at the end of August/first part of September). Many people become bearish. Then, we had a multi week snap back rally up 20% off the lows (The 2nd "counter move" on the chart). Then, the market got to the 200 DMA and then another brutal sell off ensued that took us to new lows.(forming a double bottom) Then, finally despair was setting in which resulted in capitulation around 2 weeks later. After that, the market started moving up and went straight up into spring of 2000:

[Image: 1998-stock-market-bottom-chart-pattern.jpg]

I maintain we’re in a cyclical (shorter-term, non-recessionary related) correction occurring within a secular bull market. Cyclicals can go as low as 20% whereas secular bears can go as low as 35% or worse.

The big question is, is this a temporary dead cat bounce rally or new leg up to new highs? I think once the S&P 500 gets into that range I wrote about and starts bumping up against it's moving averages ( 50 day, 200 day) we can possibly look at another leg down. If nothing else, expect volatility going forward.

- One planet orbiting a star. Billions of stars in the galaxy. Billions of galaxies in the universe. Approach.

#BallsWin
(This post was last modified: 01-08-2019 07:04 PM by robreke.)
01-08-2019 06:57 PM
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white22 Offline
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Post: #439
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I know there are a few MongoDB believers around here, what's everyone's thoughts on Amazon AWS launching their on services?? From the very little I have read I don't think it is anything to worry about am planning to load up below $75 later today.
01-11-2019 11:20 AM
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BB1 Offline
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Post: #440
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(01-11-2019 11:20 AM)white22 Wrote:  I know there are a few MongoDB believers around here, what's everyone's thoughts on Amazon AWS launching their on services?? From the very little I have read I don't think it is anything to worry about am planning to load up below $75 later today.

I am not overly concerned at this stage. MongoDB is the clear leader in NoSQL, and will keep on innovating. MongoDB remains one of the largest positions in my portfolio, but I will keep a closer eye on their quarterly growth numbers now.
01-12-2019 12:36 AM
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Sleazy Offline
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Post: #441
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
In 200 SPY at 247.46, long two Feb 15 SPY calls $235 @ 16.29, sold about $3500 in premium yesterday for Friday in naked strangles on NFLX and AMZN and an iron condor on TSLA, all positions up
01-16-2019 04:31 PM
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Sleazy Offline
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Post: #442
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Elon really screwed with me today. First time I've traded TSLA since the "funding secured" tweet and he lays off 7% of his employees so I'm glued to my trading platform all day hedging. Nevertheless, I've got $18,673.15 in realized profit so far this year, with a lot of it being from today.
01-18-2019 04:51 PM
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Sleazy Offline
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Post: #443
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(12-12-2018 01:48 PM)Road_Less_Taken Wrote:  I've been thinking of expanding my portfolio, my broker charges high margin rates but basically nothing to short the inverse of SPY (SH). Essentially this would be going long the S&P 500. This is my only reasonable option in terms of my long with my extra margin.

Now I'm not hyped on the S&P 500 in general but I'm thinking having some short positions in high beta stocks would help me hedge myself. I was originally thinking a basic idea would be shorting an ETF like SPHB would work perfectly but they are charging interest on it, so it would probably wipe out the gains.

So was thinking shorting stocks that have high betas and correlations to the s&p 500. I was thinking stocks like Amazon, Netflix, Shopify, Square, Autodesk. Basically high risk tech stocks. These stocks are free to short at my broker. Any other ideas?

So it would be long
50% SPY
40% Treasuries
10% short high beta stocks.

Shorting SH is not the same as going long the S&P at all. It is a leveraged (-1x) ETF so it does not track the performance of the underlying index over an extended period of time, but it should theoretically almost do it on a daily basis. The reason being is that these leveraged and inverse ETFs use derivatives to get the leverage or inverse factor, and derivatives by their own nature have time decay. It states as such in the prospectuses of these funds along with some high-risk factors most people don't consider. (people getting burned during the VIX meltdowns last year) Look at any 3 year chart on a 3x leveraged ETF and compare it to its underlying and you will see what I mean. This is also the reason these ETFs go through so many reverse splits to stay listed. It might actually be worth it to pay the margin rate, so you may want to reconsider that strategy.

Edit: here is the prospectus, check out the first part in bold:

http://doc.morningstar.com/DocDetail.asp...=74347B425
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2019 08:59 PM by Sleazy.)
01-18-2019 08:54 PM
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Denzel Offline
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Post: #444
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(12-31-2018 05:11 AM)Denzel Wrote:  ..... I am almost certain that if one starts buying good stocks when the market is below 2450, he will make good money in a few months (although he might be in red for a month or so). Buying in installments is generally a good idea as the market might decline further.
.......

Be greedy when others are fearful!

These are not investment advice but just a discussion of some form of technical analysis.

The highest-probability count is that US500 will decline for 200 points or so. The first signs of the decline should come soon (this week?). As always, this is a probabilistic assessment.

Be fearful when others are greedy.
01-20-2019 01:03 PM
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