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Making Money 2017 Stock Market thread
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #576
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-12-2019 04:31 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm curious as to what the forum crowd thinks of this current market.

Where in the cycle you begin investing really really matters a great deal:

Quote:Here’s an unpleasant full-cycle calculation. Within the 80-year period from 1929 to 2009, the S&P 500 took three long, interesting trips to nowhere, accounting for 53 of those years (1929-1945, 1959-1982, and 1995-2009), underperforming risk-free Treasury bills after all was said and done.

For example, anyone who entered the market in 1995 and who exited at the bottom in 2009 broke even after fourteen years of risk (many investors did exit at that bottom). If you entered the market in 1998-2000 and exited at the bottom in 2009, then you lost big time. If you do not understand all of the ramifications of the following article (discussing the history of the markets and cycles) and you do not have an exit or hedging strategy in place, then you should probably not be in the markets. If you are anywhere near retirement, staying in the market at a bottom may not work. For example, it took the NASQAQ more than seventeen years to regain its 2000 high water mark.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190906/
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2019 12:21 AM by Tail Gunner.)
10-13-2019 12:14 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I'm only 37, so my time horizon for retirement is still quite a ways off.

My current asset allocation looks something like this:

94% Cash
1% Silver Coins
2.5% BTC
2.5% Tech stocks

As you can see, I'm very heavily weighted towards cash. I'm willing to DCA into tech stocks for a bit more growth (companies that have strong upside potential, not WeWork wannabees), but am primarily concerned with getting a better asset allocation and hedging strategy in general.

Thoughts:

I'm afraid that most equities are overpriced. But leaving too much cash in the savings account is getting a paltry 1.85% APY. I'd like to have a relatively safe hedge against inflation, so I'm considering buying some gold (either coins or an ETF or both).

My local real estate market in California is coming off all-time highs, but there's a sign of severe price cuts month-over-month on the listings on Zillow. This is especially true for raw land, and somewhat less true for housing.

In April of every year, my county sells properties (mostly raw land) that have unpaid tax bills. Undeveloped land has very low tax rates compared to properties with homes on it, so the downside risk/cost of owning land is considerably less than having a huge mortgage on a property that is assessed at a much higher rate. Some of these raw land properties have sold for between $1k-$40k per acre, which is well below market rate. I have outstanding credit with lots of unused capacity, plus all this cash sitting around.

My goal is to do due diligence on the properties coming up at auction next April and create a shortlist of the ones I think have potential (either as a buy-and-hold for my own development) or as a buy-and-sell on the retail market. With all this excess cash that I have, I'm also preparing to submit lowball offers (50% or less than market rate) on properties listed in the retail market. I realize that most of these offers will be a long-shot, but there's considerable upside in case I shake a loose hand out and find a very motivated seller that wants out right now.

I also want to sit mostly on my cash (with the exception of perhaps a gold purchase) through the end of this year and up until the April auction. That gives me the chance to DCA back into equities just in case the market takes a huge nosedive.

Cash has a negative net return over the long haul when you factor in inflation. I want to sit on it just long enough to move it into other asset classes as soon as the opportunities present themselves.

If anyone would like to pick apart my strategy, I'll be humble enough to know that I may have missed something. Thanks as always gents. Smile

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(This post was last modified: 10-15-2019 07:47 AM by John Michael Kane.)
10-15-2019 07:43 AM
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gework Offline
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Post: #578
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
^ I think you've made the right move going mostly cash.

I did the same. I am currently have something similar:

10% crypto
10% high quality bonds, paying about 3.85%
2% stocks, mostly gold mining
78% cash

I sold almost all stocks in late January, after the rebound from the December crash. Given I was mostly holding medical marijuana stocks it was the right call.

[Image: Screenshot-at-2019-10-15-16-56-40.png]

I would personally hold off buying any real estate until the next recession. I'm looking to buy once a recession hits. I am also looking to jump into Asian REITs, at that point.

With increasingly more indicators flashing towards recession I would not buy any stocks. For a little extra yield I would look at high quality corporate debt. Problem is it seems a lot of that debt has gone up, since it seems to be more prudent to hold it. Apple debt has gone up about 15%, since Jan-Feb, when I bought.

My only impetus now is placing shorts and picking up some bargain alt-coins. I am not going to take the risk of doing the research (wasting time) and then buying overbought stocks at the top of a bubble.

[Image: valuation-metric_buffet-indicator.png?itok=dY8WzPDi]
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2019 09:52 AM by gework.)
10-15-2019 09:14 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Thoughts on Twitter stock?
10-16-2019 12:32 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 12:32 AM)Kangaroo Wrote:  Thoughts on Twitter stock?

Jack is a rat of a human being, not to be trusted at all. He's proven time and again the desire to silence and ban people from the platform, even though it cuts down engagement and total active-user rolls. I like investing in companies that don't pick political fights that push away potential users/customers. As long as you have a "woke" SJW running the ship, I wouldn't drop a dime into them.

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10-16-2019 12:36 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Quote:I would personally hold off buying any real estate until the next recession. I'm looking to buy once a recession hits. I am also looking to jump into Asian REITs, at that point.

Are you planning on buying RE as a personal property or as part of a buy/hold/appreciate/sell strategy? Looking to be a landlord or not? What country/cities are you looking into?

Here in California everything is seriously overpriced, but that also presents and opportunity with distressed owners looking to offload a property below market value to avoid foreclosure or eviction. Still, at least in this local market, raw land seems like the way to go given the much lower tax rates. With interest rates being so low, my plan to buy some raw land with a minimal down payment so I don't tie up too much cash. Because the overall purchase price will be low as well as annual taxes, there's much more upside than downside IMHO. Also, I'm not planning on buying any property I couldn't imagine myself living on, meaning that I have that fallback if I decide not to sell it or the market takes a prolonged downturn. There's no point buying into these high prices right now unless you negotiate a deal at least 30-50% the hyper-inflated book values. Despite the high list prices, many people are selling for less than that. Finding those people that want to get the heck out of dodge is key.

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10-16-2019 12:50 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I'm either looking to buy a medium-term property to tide me over for about 5 years or a lifetime property. I don't want to sink a huge amount into a home right now as that is money that could otherwise be earning big post-recession.

Ideal would be something in EE, on the outskirts of a small city, with a good tract of land and a swimming pool. You can get something like that in Ukraine now for under $300K. No doubt that can come down.

I have thought about rentals, either tenants or short-term, but it's too much hastle. Insurance, bills, repairs, taxes... And then there are the people. I don't like dealing with people and that will probably be worse in EE or SEA.

I'd also like to get an apartment in Thailand for wintering. For $100,000 you can get a plush apartment with pool and gym.

I had heard that properties were going XX% under asking, especially in the big markets. It seems like a good plan. Does somewhere outside of California tempt you more?

For real estate I would be most interested in getting access to markets I think have the best growth potential, primarily Vietnam, but also others in that general area.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 04:28 PM by gework.)
10-16-2019 04:26 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 04:26 PM)gework Wrote:  I have thought about rentals, either tenants or short-term, but it's too much hastle. Insurance, bills, repairs, taxes... And then there are the people. I don't like dealing with people and that will probably be worse in EE or SEA.

For real estate I would be most interested in getting access to markets I think have the best growth potential, primarily Vietnam, but also others in that general area.

Yes, you need to do it right. Here is a good article on how to spot a good property manager. In fact, this is so important that the author recommends that when you make a rental investment, first choose a market, next a rental manager, and, finally, a property.

Quote:You can act as your own rental manager, but I don’t advise it. If you’re not residing physically in the same place as the rental unit, I say definitely don’t do it. I’ve had 25 years of investor-landlord experience in nearly two-dozen countries. This isn’t something you want to take on yourself, unless you’re prepared to make it your full-time occupation. Rather, you want to engage someone who knows the market, who has marketing infrastructure in place, who has developed a client list you can leverage, and who can show you proven management systems (for reservations, for inventory control, for reporting, etc.).

* * *

This is why I say that, when you make a rental investment, you’re choosing, first, a market; next, a rental manager; and, finally, a property. Before you make a particular purchase decision, seek advice from the rental management agency you’re planning to work with. What’s more rentable? Two bedrooms… or one? What matters most to would-be renters? Location, of course, but other, less obvious things can be critical. In Paris, you’ll struggle to make a decent return off a fifth-floor rental in an apartment building with no elevator.

https://www.liveandinvestoverseas.com/re...-overseas/


If I have the liquid cash, during the next recession I would seriously consider Florida. Miami condos have tripled in value since 2018-2019. Recently, I heard a broadcast where an investor spoke about condos in Myrtle Beach that sold for $30k in 2018-2019 that now sell for over $200k. Of course, opportunities abound everywhere during a financial panic.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 04:42 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-16-2019 04:39 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 04:26 PM)gework Wrote:  I'm either looking to buy a medium-term property to tide me over for about 5 years or a lifetime property. I don't want to sink a huge amount into a home right now as that is money that could otherwise be earning big post-recession.

Exactly my thinking. I want my cash available to buy back into equities in a post-crash world. Tying up too much in real estate in a home you live in (no opportunity for cash flow) doesn't make sense to me.

Quote:The ideal would be something in EE, on the outskirts of a small city, with a good tract of land and a swimming pool. You can get something like that in Ukraine now for under $300K. No doubt that can come down.

List price should never be the final sale price, unless you've chosen a seller's market where there's vastly too much demand relative to supply. That's why I think 2nd and 3rd tier cities best and to avoid large metro areas. There's just not that many opportunities for value purchases inside of city centers, at least in the Western world.

Quote:I have thought about rentals, either tenants or short-term, but it's too much hastle. Insurance, bills, repairs, taxes... And then there are the people. I don't like dealing with people and that will probably be worse in EE or SEA.

Quote:I'd also like to get an apartment in Thailand for wintering. For $100,000 you can get a plush apartment with pool and gym.

With as fast as these SEA countries are growing, it will likely never be cheaper to get a nice pad over there, especially as the native-born starts establishing a middle-class and wanting better and better digs.

Quote:I had heard that properties were going XX% under asking, especially in the big markets. It seems like a good plan. Does somewhere outside of California tempt you more?

Major metro areas are not being discounted below more than 5-10% off listing price (think San Francisco and LA). It is the smaller and medium size areas that are seeing bigger discounts, as their job markets soften due to more jobs moving to the bigger cities. I live in a county where the average house price is $600k+. Homes regularly sell for $550k still. You can still shave something off list, but it isn't massive for any property with a home already on it. The real discounting happens on raw land, as most people just see it as a non-cash-producing tax burden and are happier to offload it, sometimes even at a significant loss over their original purchase price.

Quote:For real estate I would be most interested in getting access to markets I think have the best growth potential, primarily Vietnam, but also others in that general area.

SEA is still on pace to grow considerably over the coming years. The only major concern I have about the area is that increasingly China is looking to throw their weight around to the neighbors, as they've yet to really be stopped. Trump has started a trade war with them, but domestically they are still acting like little children, throwing fits whenever any other country asks them to treat them respectfully. It is possible, even if remote, that China starts some military conflict in the coming years.

Quote:Yes, you need to do it right. Here is a good article on how to spot a good property manager. In fact, this is so important that the author recommends that when you make a rental investment, first choose a market, next a rental manager, and, finally, a property.

You can act as your own rental manager, but I don’t advise it. If you’re not residing physically in the same place as the rental unit, I say definitely don’t do it. I’ve had 25 years of investor-landlord experience in nearly two-dozen countries. This isn’t something you want to take on yourself, unless you’re prepared to make it your full-time occupation. Rather, you want to engage someone who knows the market, who has marketing infrastructure in place, who has developed a client list you can leverage, and who can show you proven management systems (for reservations, for inventory control, for reporting, etc.).

I'm not keen on being a landlord. Too many variables for too many problems for too small of a margin with too big of a downside risk. I'd only do it if I lived on-site, but even that still is a huge challenge if you get a bad tennant, and you're bound to have one sooner or later.

Quote:If I have the liquid cash, during the next recession I would seriously consider Florida. Miami condos have tripled in value since 2018-2019. Recently, I heard a broadcast where an investor spoke about condos in Myrtle Beach that sold for $30k in 2018-2019 that now sell for over $200k. Of course, opportunities abound everywhere during a financial panic.

Florida has a massive boom/bust cycle similar to Las Vegas. This is due to two reasons: 1. Prices are overinflated during boom years, so they bust much harder during bust years (creating opportunity at a discount). 2. Hurricanes ravage certain areas every so many years, so a property that is worth $1m today might be worth pennies on that dollar post-storm. Many insurance carriers won't write home insurance policies in whole zip codes in Florida.

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10-16-2019 08:11 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm not keen on being a landlord. Too many variables for too many problems for too small of a margin with too big of a downside risk.

Too small of a margin? There are turnkey fully managed apartments offshore that produce double-digit annual yields up to 15%-20%. In fact, I will not even consider such a unit unless it conservatively produces at least a projected 15% annual return. By conservative, I mean that the projections are based on a 60% occupancy rate when actual occupancy rates for the area average about 80%. I admit that you must hunt for these gems, but they are most certainly out there.

(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'd only do it if I lived on-site, but even that still is a huge challenge if you get a bad tennant, and you're bound to have one sooner or later.

I agree, which is why I recommend having these units professionally managed. The availability of such services, and their quality, will vary by country.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 10:47 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-16-2019 10:46 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 10:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm not keen on being a landlord. Too many variables for too many problems for too small of a margin with too big of a downside risk.

Too small of a margin? There are turnkey fully managed apartments offshore that produce double-digit annual yields up to 15%-20%. In fact, I will not even consider such a unit unless it conservatively produces at least a projected 15% annual return. By conservative, I mean that the projections are based on a 60% occupancy rate when actual occupancy rates for the area average about 80%. I admit that you must hunt for these gems, but they are most certainly out there.

(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'd only do it if I lived on-site, but even that still is a huge challenge if you get a bad tennant, and you're bound to have one sooner or later.

I agree, which is why I recommend having these units professionally managed. The availability of such services, and their quality, will vary by country.

I'm not familiar with the offshore apartment business, so I can't speak with any authority on it. At least here in the United States (where I currently live), trying to get 20% yields would be unthinkable in most areas. To get such a margin you would have probably purchased a dump and done minimal upgrades. When you look at rates of return on the initial investment, most apartments here in the USA are getting less than 20% yields. Lawsuits, high taxes, high insurance costs, renters that are hard to evict, etc. make it very hard to get that kind of return.

Do you have some examples of REIT's that get such returns? I'd be more interested in investing in a REIT in a foreign country than I would be trying to be a direct owner from an ocean away.

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10-16-2019 11:03 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 11:03 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 10:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm not keen on being a landlord. Too many variables for too many problems for too small of a margin with too big of a downside risk.

Too small of a margin? There are turnkey fully managed apartments offshore that produce double-digit annual yields up to 15%-20%. In fact, I will not even consider such a unit unless it conservatively produces at least a projected 15% annual return. By conservative, I mean that the projections are based on a 60% occupancy rate when actual occupancy rates for the area average about 80%. I admit that you must hunt for these gems, but they are most certainly out there.

(10-16-2019 08:11 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'd only do it if I lived on-site, but even that still is a huge challenge if you get a bad tennant, and you're bound to have one sooner or later.

I agree, which is why I recommend having these units professionally managed. The availability of such services, and their quality, will vary by country.

I'm not familiar with the offshore apartment business, so I can't speak with any authority on it. At least here in the United States (where I currently live), trying to get 20% yields would be unthinkable in most areas. To get such a margin you would have probably purchased a dump and done minimal upgrades. When you look at rates of return on the initial investment, most apartments here in the USA are getting less than 20% yields. Lawsuits, high taxes, high insurance costs, renters that are hard to evict, etc. make it very hard to get that kind of return.

Do you have some examples of REIT's that get such returns? I'd be more interested in investing in a REIT in a foreign country than I would be trying to be a direct owner from an ocean away.

I agree. In the U.S., the average annual yield is probably in the 5-8% range. You must work hard to crack the double-digits. Artificially low interest rates have inflated real estate prices and thereby suppressed yields (just like stock yields). So, that is to be expected. Invest anywhere that has market interest rates and you will garner market yields, rather than suppressed yields. That is why offshore markets are far more lucrative for real estate investors (unless you buy in the U.S. or Europe during a financial panic).

I am not discussing REITs. I am discussing buying a unit in a condo or apartment project at the pre-build stage (or shortly after building has begun) in a proven market with proven occupancy-rate statistics using a developer with a proven track record. In the offshore world, 10-15% yields are common and they can reach 20% (using conservative occupancy rates). Moreover, such units can often appreciate 20-30% just after they are built, resulting in almost immediate capital appreciation. People who buy the finished units with a bank loan are willing to pay 20-30% more than the people who paid cash for an un-built unit.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 11:19 PM by Tail Gunner.)
10-16-2019 11:14 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
In case I missed it earlier in the thread, do you own or do you plan on buying into such a development in the near future? Also, at least in some countries, they restrict foreign ownership of real estate. Are you a citizen to the country or countries you plan on investing in real estate in? Which countries?

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10-16-2019 11:18 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
SaaS what a massacre
10-17-2019 10:20 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-16-2019 11:18 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  In case I missed it earlier in the thread, do you own or do you plan on buying into such a development in the near future? Also, at least in some countries, they restrict foreign ownership of real estate. Are you a citizen to the country or countries you plan on investing in real estate in? Which countries?

I almost pulled the trigger on one in Latin America a year ago involving a conservative 20% annual yield. I got to the very end of the process after doing all the due diligence, but I was then presented with a contract that appeared as if it was translated from Spanish to Chinese and then into English. I was not about to do business with a firm that refused to spend $100 on a proper translation. This was a very well-established developer with an established track record. I am cautious and I only invest when everything makes sense and all the stars align right.

I am in a private RE fund elsewhere that buys units in the path of development that then rehabs and rents them. I also own an agricultural business, which I believe is truly the wave of the future. No, I am not a citizen in any of these countries. Anyone can do this. I am not getting into specifics for privacy reasons, because privacy is my sixth flag.
10-17-2019 11:43 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-12-2019 04:31 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm curious as to what the forum crowd thinks of this current market. Personally, I like tech stocks, as they are positioned for the most possible growth relative to more capital intensive industries like energy and healthcare. I'm considering adding a position in Mongo and Elastic as suggested before. Any other trading ideas on growth-oriented tech stocks? Roku is another one that catches my interest because they are inclusive of so many content providers that they offer consumers better choices than many walled-garden systems. Sound off as to what your positions are and what you plan to move into.

(10-17-2019 10:20 AM)deneuk Wrote:  SaaS what a massacre

Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??
10-18-2019 10:23 AM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 04:31 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm curious as to what the forum crowd thinks of this current market. Personally, I like tech stocks, as they are positioned for the most possible growth relative to more capital intensive industries like energy and healthcare. I'm considering adding a position in Mongo and Elastic as suggested before. Any other trading ideas on growth-oriented tech stocks? Roku is another one that catches my interest because they are inclusive of so many content providers that they offer consumers better choices than many walled-garden systems. Sound off as to what your positions are and what you plan to move into.

(10-17-2019 10:20 AM)deneuk Wrote:  SaaS what a massacre

Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

It depends on both your age and your risk philosophy. Are you at an age where you can recover from catastrophic financial losses? What is your risk philosophy? If an alien spacecraft lands, are you the first guy knocking on its door -- or the guy that hides behind the bush to see what happens to the first guy who knocks on its door?

For the first time in recorded history, we have tech companies with no cash flow that thrive in the stock markets, we have negative interest rates on bonds, we have governments surviving debt that have historically always ruined other governments. Are we operating under a new paradigm -- or waiting for the great financial reset?

Personally, I will not be the first guy to knock on the door of an alien spacecraft. Nor am I the guy blindly following the herd on a dark night to the next water hole -- and possibly running off a cliff. I am a student of history. I spent a great time learning how to achieve higher yields with far lower risks by investing in real assets, rather than investing in these new-paradigm markets. If you can overcome, ignorance, laziness, and complacency there is an entire world of investments beyond the stock, bond, and derivative markets, where market forces still operate just like they always have.

I also watch what wise men with proven track records do. Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway now sit on over $100 billion in cash rather than investing it.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2019 11:11 AM by Tail Gunner.)
10-18-2019 11:04 AM
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white22 Offline
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Post: #593
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-18-2019 11:04 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

It depends on both your age and your risk philosophy. Are you at an age where you can recover from catastrophic financial losses? What is your risk philosophy? If an alien spacecraft lands, are you the first guy knocking on its door -- or the guy that hides behind the bush to see what happens to the first guy who knocks on its door?

For the first time in recorded history, we have tech companies with no cash flow that thrive in the stock markets, we have negative interest rates on bonds, we have governments surviving debt that have historically always ruined other governments. Are we operating under a new paradigm -- or waiting for the great financial reset?

Personally, I will not be the first guy to knock on the door of an alien spacecraft. Nor am I the guy blindly following the herd on a dark night to the next water hole -- and possibly running off a cliff. I am a student of history. I spent a great time learning how to achieve higher yields with far lower risks by investing in real assets, rather than investing in these new-paradigm markets. If you can overcome, ignorance, laziness, and complacency there is an entire world of investments beyond the stock, bond, and derivative markets, where market forces still operate just like they always have.

I also watch what wise men with proven track records do. Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway now sit on over $100 billion in cash rather than investing it.

Very Nice post! It took me a couple of time reading it to see the direction.

I've got another 30 years in the market and do not shy from risk. That being said I do not blatantly ignore warning signs and logic to take unwarranted risks.
10-18-2019 04:11 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #594
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-18-2019 04:11 PM)white22 Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 11:04 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

It depends on both your age and your risk philosophy. Are you at an age where you can recover from catastrophic financial losses? What is your risk philosophy? If an alien spacecraft lands, are you the first guy knocking on its door -- or the guy that hides behind the bush to see what happens to the first guy who knocks on its door?

For the first time in recorded history, we have tech companies with no cash flow that thrive in the stock markets, we have negative interest rates on bonds, we have governments surviving debt that have historically always ruined other governments. Are we operating under a new paradigm -- or waiting for the great financial reset?

Personally, I will not be the first guy to knock on the door of an alien spacecraft. Nor am I the guy blindly following the herd on a dark night to the next water hole -- and possibly running off a cliff. I am a student of history. I spent a great time learning how to achieve higher yields with far lower risks by investing in real assets, rather than investing in these new-paradigm markets. If you can overcome, ignorance, laziness, and complacency there is an entire world of investments beyond the stock, bond, and derivative markets, where market forces still operate just like they always have.

I also watch what wise men with proven track records do. Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway now sit on over $100 billion in cash rather than investing it.

Very Nice post! It took me a couple of time reading it to see the direction.

I've got another 30 years in the market and do not shy from risk. That being said I do not blatantly ignore warning signs and logic to take unwarranted risks.

I recommend that you read "Aftershock" by James Rickards, a book that was mentioned several times in this thread. I just read the lengthy forward and the first few chapters today.

It will really open your eyes as to the financial threats posed by the current economic system. At the end of each chapter, he provides some recommendations.
10-18-2019 07:56 PM
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Post: #595
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

MDB and ESTC are a couple of my favourite companies to own. High volatility is to be expected with these type of SaaS companies that are disrupting huge industries in front of our eyes. Im happy to hold these for the long term.

Last week I doubled my position in Alteryx (AYX) at $88. They are posting fantastic metrics - eg. "Achieved a dollar-based net expansion rate (annual contract value based) of 133% for the second quarter of 2019." :

https://investor.alteryx.com/news-and-ev...fault.aspx
10-28-2019 06:28 PM
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Kelent Offline
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Post: #596
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I don't have anything to add except regret. I bought AMD in 2017 when it was at something like $14/share. I didn't know anything, it tanked to $8.. and I sold. Looking at current prices my god was that a mistake...
10-31-2019 10:49 PM
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RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Both the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq reached their highest levels in history today. Great news for those who have put their faith in long term equity investing.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2019 06:46 PM by BB1.)
11-01-2019 06:45 PM
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Post: #598
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(10-18-2019 07:56 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 04:11 PM)white22 Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 11:04 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

It depends on both your age and your risk philosophy. Are you at an age where you can recover from catastrophic financial losses? What is your risk philosophy? If an alien spacecraft lands, are you the first guy knocking on its door -- or the guy that hides behind the bush to see what happens to the first guy who knocks on its door?

For the first time in recorded history, we have tech companies with no cash flow that thrive in the stock markets, we have negative interest rates on bonds, we have governments surviving debt that have historically always ruined other governments. Are we operating under a new paradigm -- or waiting for the great financial reset?

Personally, I will not be the first guy to knock on the door of an alien spacecraft. Nor am I the guy blindly following the herd on a dark night to the next water hole -- and possibly running off a cliff. I am a student of history. I spent a great time learning how to achieve higher yields with far lower risks by investing in real assets, rather than investing in these new-paradigm markets. If you can overcome, ignorance, laziness, and complacency there is an entire world of investments beyond the stock, bond, and derivative markets, where market forces still operate just like they always have.

I also watch what wise men with proven track records do. Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway now sit on over $100 billion in cash rather than investing it.

Very Nice post! It took me a couple of time reading it to see the direction.

I've got another 30 years in the market and do not shy from risk. That being said I do not blatantly ignore warning signs and logic to take unwarranted risks.

I recommend that you read "Aftershock" by James Rickards, a book that was mentioned several times in this thread. I just read the lengthy forward and the first few chapters today.

It will really open your eyes as to the financial threats posed by the current economic system. At the end of each chapter, he provides some recommendations.

The book is great. Rickards gets a lot of things right. I also recommend.

It - the book - is called 'Aftermath' though.

“The world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it.”

- V.S Naipaul 'A Bend in the river'
11-01-2019 09:00 PM
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Post: #599
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Anyone buying UK stocks? Pretty attractive P/E ratios and some bluechip names like Glaxo, Univlever and Vodafone offer dividends of 3.5 to 5.5%

I think the Brexit uncertainty will clear over pretty soon. Having grown up in England, I personally think the economy will fair pretty well there long-term. Highly educated workforce and much more business friendly attitudes than the rest of Europe.
11-04-2019 06:23 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #600
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-01-2019 09:00 PM)rockoman Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 07:56 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 04:11 PM)white22 Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 11:04 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  
(10-18-2019 10:23 AM)white22 Wrote:  Meant to chime in on this yesterday. I'm watching ESTC and MDB closely. I'm racking my brain whether the time is right to buy more or if there will be more dropping. I was right in feeling they'd drop more today. Still a little apprehensive buying at all right now. Guess QE4 could prop things up a while longer.

What's everyone else think? Great discount on two great companies that are headed to the moon or still buying in at the top of the market that is set for a huge selloff in which even great tech stocks will be slaughtered??

It depends on both your age and your risk philosophy. Are you at an age where you can recover from catastrophic financial losses? What is your risk philosophy? If an alien spacecraft lands, are you the first guy knocking on its door -- or the guy that hides behind the bush to see what happens to the first guy who knocks on its door?

For the first time in recorded history, we have tech companies with no cash flow that thrive in the stock markets, we have negative interest rates on bonds, we have governments surviving debt that have historically always ruined other governments. Are we operating under a new paradigm -- or waiting for the great financial reset?

Personally, I will not be the first guy to knock on the door of an alien spacecraft. Nor am I the guy blindly following the herd on a dark night to the next water hole -- and possibly running off a cliff. I am a student of history. I spent a great time learning how to achieve higher yields with far lower risks by investing in real assets, rather than investing in these new-paradigm markets. If you can overcome, ignorance, laziness, and complacency there is an entire world of investments beyond the stock, bond, and derivative markets, where market forces still operate just like they always have.

I also watch what wise men with proven track records do. Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway now sit on over $100 billion in cash rather than investing it.

Very Nice post! It took me a couple of time reading it to see the direction.

I've got another 30 years in the market and do not shy from risk. That being said I do not blatantly ignore warning signs and logic to take unwarranted risks.

I recommend that you read "Aftershock" by James Rickards, a book that was mentioned several times in this thread. I just read the lengthy forward and the first few chapters today.

It will really open your eyes as to the financial threats posed by the current economic system. At the end of each chapter, he provides some recommendations.

The book is great. Rickards gets a lot of things right. I also recommend.

It - the book - is called 'Aftermath' though.

Thank you for correcting the title. Here is a recent hour-long interview where James Rickards discusses many of the concepts from the book.



11-04-2019 11:58 PM
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