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Making Money 2017 Stock Market thread
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #601
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I'm cautiously bullish on the market.

*In the US I like quality small to mid-caps vs large caps right now
*I am overweight gold
*I am underweight treasuries
*While I'm not bullish on USD I am long as a hedge.
*Most exotic trade is a small 1% futures position in Cacao.

I find it crazy people that plunge 10% into bitcoin or weed stocks and call their portfolio diversified. Such a joke. If I were to invest in bitcoin in a diversified portfolio...which I still think is premature I would be thinking around the 2% range. For now you have to stick with gold.
11-12-2019 11:08 AM
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Tail Gunner
jbkunt2 Offline
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Post: #602
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Anyone got any recommendations for stocks they like right now?
11-12-2019 12:30 PM
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Australia Sucks Offline
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Post: #603
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Tail Gunner the fact that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $100 billion of cash has as much to do with its enormous size as any other factor. When you have $100 billion to invest your opportunity set is much more limited. If Warren Buffett only had $1 million to invest I am sure he would not have such high cash weightings.
11-19-2019 05:26 AM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #604
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-19-2019 05:26 AM)Australia Sucks Wrote:  Tail Gunner the fact that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $100 billion of cash has as much to do with its enormous size as any other factor. When you have $100 billion to invest your opportunity set is much more limited. If Warren Buffett only had $1 million to invest I am sure he would not have such high cash weightings.

Of course that is true, but it is also true that for the first time in his life Buffet has been unable to find undervalued business deals worthy of his attention (because business valuations are so over-inflated by artificially low interest rates). These two facts are not mutually exclusive.

If you are willing to put boots on the ground, there are still plenty of places in the world where you can buy small (privately-owned) multi-million-dollar businesses by paying twice the EBITA. That does not undermine my point that Buffet can no longer find undervalued deals on Wall Street (as he has always done in the past).

Quote:"In the years ahead, we hope to move much of our excess liquidity into businesses that Berkshire will permanently own," Buffett wrote. "The immediate prospects for that, however, are not good: Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/warr...hat-to-buy
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2019 11:28 AM by Tail Gunner.)
11-19-2019 11:20 AM
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jbkunt2 Offline
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Post: #605
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
He bought 6.5% of RH.
11-22-2019 01:09 PM
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white22 Offline
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Post: #606
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-22-2019 01:09 PM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  He bought 6.5% of RH.

This is going to be an interesting to watch! popcorn
35% short and Buffett could purchase the whole thing. Makes you wonder what the shorts are thinking playing with fire....but I also wonder what WB sees in RH, other than he owns multiple furniture companies. I think it's a mistake on WB's part, but would not bet against him!
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2019 01:57 PM by white22.)
11-25-2019 01:57 PM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #607
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Nice day today. It was good to see the run through on smaller cap stocks up 2.5%.

I still am very overweight U.S mid caps against large caps, IJH all day!

Also for those guys looking for defensive holdings consider Swiss stocks. They are always a bit of a premium PE wise but it comes with the benefit of a defensive economy that should do well in a downturn. Also if you hedge back to USD you get a nice carry which almost acts like a dividend. If your going the ETF route you could check out HEWL otherwise you could select your favorites individually.
11-25-2019 06:27 PM
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John Michael Kane Offline
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Post: #608
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Sold off the last of what I had in Salesforce (CRM), made a nice profit of about 20% over what I purchased it at a while back. I'm divesting myself from SJW-run companies, especially gun grabbers like CEO Marc Benioff.

What do you gents think of gold ETFs? Seems like a decent hedge or not against a bear market that is bound to pop up sooner or later? Thoughts?

John Michael Kane's Datasheets: Master The Credit Game: Save & Make Money By Being Credit Savvy
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Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value. -Albert Einstein
11-25-2019 06:32 PM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #609
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-25-2019 06:32 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  Sold off the last of what I had in Salesforce (CRM), made a nice profit of about 20% over what I purchased it at a while back. I'm divesting myself from SJW-run companies, especially gun grabbers like CEO Marc Benioff.

What do you gents think of gold ETFs? Seems like a decent hedge or not against a bear market that is bound to pop up sooner or later? Thoughts?

Yes you 100% need some gold in your portfolio. I think its important to have rain or shine but with interest rates so low it becomes even more attractive. GLD is the most popular but there are some others with lower MER's (but I believe they hold less physical gold).

I'd also consider buying the equivalent in USD to offset that Gold is implicitly short the dollar. the US Dollar is also defensive so it makes it a no brainier. You can check out USDU to get that exposure.
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2019 07:00 PM by Road_Less_Taken.)
11-25-2019 06:51 PM
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John Michael Kane
John Michael Kane Offline
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Post: #610
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
Just bought 800 shares of SGOL ETF @ $14. It has a lower expense ratio @ .17% than GLD and other funds. With all the impeachment and money-printing madness, I'm as confident in being long gold as I am anything else in this overpriced equities market. It is like watching a circus where you expect the band to stop playing at some point, but the music just keeps playing, but this can't go on forever.

The world is pretty mad right now, and it can shake even a veteran investor unless you take a step back and stay focused on your larger financial planning and stick with your master plan. With stocks heading higher and higher, there's always the temptation to get back in this overpriced market and ride the wave a bit higher.

I'm personally not trying to time the market any longer, as opposed to asking myself, what larger secular trends in the world are going to be driving us forward? To that end, what long-term trends do you guys think are likely to come to fruition in the coming months and years?

John Michael Kane's Datasheets: Master The Credit Game: Save & Make Money By Being Credit Savvy
Boycott these companies that hate men: King's Wiki Boycott List

Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value. -Albert Einstein
11-26-2019 01:22 PM
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Tail Gunner Offline
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Post: #611
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-26-2019 01:22 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  I'm personally not trying to time the market any longer, as opposed to asking myself, what larger secular trends in the world are going to be driving us forward? To that end, what long-term trends do you guys think are likely to come to fruition in the coming months and years?

Read Jim Rickards' book "Aftermath," which provides a great overview of financial and economic trends.

Or you can watch his interview, which contains a summary of his book, which I placed into post number 600.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2019 05:09 PM by Tail Gunner.)
11-26-2019 05:07 PM
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Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #612
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
(11-26-2019 01:22 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  Just bought 800 shares of SGOL ETF @ $14. It has a lower expense ratio @ .17% than GLD and other funds. With all the impeachment and money-printing madness, I'm as confident in being long gold as I am anything else in this overpriced equities market. It is like watching a circus where you expect the band to stop playing at some point, but the music just keeps playing, but this can't go on forever.

The world is pretty mad right now, and it can shake even a veteran investor unless you take a step back and stay focused on your larger financial planning and stick with your master plan. With stocks heading higher and higher, there's always the temptation to get back in this overpriced market and ride the wave a bit higher.

I'm personally not trying to time the market any longer, as opposed to asking myself, what larger secular trends in the world are going to be driving us forward? To that end, what long-term trends do you guys think are likely to come to fruition in the coming months and years?

Nice that's a good option, I'd say your good as gold.

They did a study asking experts to predict the S&P turns out they did worse than a monkey picking random numbers. So you never know what is going to happen, that being said here are my thoughts.

I think we are going to have another big year next year. As more money is being pumped into the system, things will continue to appreciate. Politically if we get a moderate democrat vs trump I feel like it won't be a huge deal for the markets and if Warren gets picked I think Trump will beat her..

I think as always there are areas of the market that are at risk. Right now the IPO unicorns are a clear avoid. In the longer term I am worried that we will get a mini tech bubble 2. I can see a huge run up and then a decent sell of led by tech, stuff like netflix getting pounded. I think small/mid caps will outperform both on the way up and the way down as long as you look for quality. The S&P 500 is over-weighted tech so I'm careful there.

I like gold regardless. I think yields will continue to be low but don't see too much upside for treasuries.
11-26-2019 07:44 PM
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John Michael Kane
Road_Less_Taken Offline
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Post: #613
RE: 2017 Stock Market thread
I was thinking it would be cool to offer to some guys interested a mentor-ship program for those of you looking to run long term portfolios a bit hedge fund styled.

It would basically involve me working with you teaching you what I know and providing you with resources that I find useful. A lot of 1 on 1 stuff.

I know there are a lot of people online that offer a lot of hype, my goal is to do nothing of the sort.. Especially with long term investing you are loosing money lots of days, stuff breaks down a bit sometimes, but overall I feel as though once you have things down it rewards you greatly for a very limited amount of time.

Let me know if your interested and we can touch base. I still am working how I am going to structure it to see if its worth my time. So apologies if its looking a bit grey right now.
Yesterday 12:19 PM
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