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The Trump China Policy Thread
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #351
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Tariff hike is in effect.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t...SKCN1SG08X

The next few days should be interesting.
05-09-2019 11:26 PM
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Post: #352
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Honestly I regret even posting that GDP figure, 'cause it's probably false.

The one thing that you need to realize about China, from a western standpoint, is that nobody on the outside knows what the fuck is going on in China, except maybe people who live there, and even then it's suspect. Companies you've never heard of will have market caps and user bases that dwarf anything in the United States. Laws and import practices will change randomly, sometimes in the span of a few weeks. Product quality will be amazingly high, and then it'll be shit.

Honestly if you told me that "China" doesn't even exist, and is actually just a CIA experiment to see how much meaningless bullshit American businessmen will put up with, I would believe it. Hell, I'd believe it more than those constant 6% growth numbers they put out.

If your name isn't Fortis, or Suits, or another forum member who's spent significant time on the ground in China, you should probably refrain from doing much pontificating on it.
05-09-2019 11:33 PM
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Post: #353
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
China is feeling these tariffs, but these also came at the most inopportune time ever. China has had a MASSIVE pig flu that is destroying their pig population AND they're also getting smashed by the global soybean price hikes.

I've read in some places that they've had to slaughter upwards of 200m pigs. I'm not sure if this is making mainstream news yet but it's quite scary.

I think Brazil was the main place that would have been able to sell soy to China but they're dealing with a soy blight or something.

This leaves China in a position where they need to get their pigs and soy from the USA. Very unfortunate shit.

Not sure what this will do in the long-term but they aren't just shrugging this off so easily.
05-09-2019 11:38 PM
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Post: #354
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
To give you guys some more context, American businesses are dropping off China like fleas off a dog. I'm friends with a few American businessmen who have moved operations to Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico and other spots because The Chinese authorities are becoming a bit too draconian with their regulations.

One might even be able to say that the American tariffs are inadvertently protecting American intellectual property since all these businesses are fleeing China.

We're definitely in for some interesting times.

Despite what China would have you think they're still very much in the "assimilate and improve" phase of their technological dominance. There are a few Chinese brands that are great but they haven't really come out with anything that is truly ground-breaking that they can put their stamp on. Most of their best stuff is just reverse-engineered technology from other countries. They can only create good shit when someone else creates better shit.

I think these tariffs need to happen to get China to cooperate with the rest of the world. You cannot play that typical diplomacy game with them. You have to bring them to their knees forcefully and then give them permission to stand. Equality is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Things are a zero-sum game. Winners and losers.
05-10-2019 12:13 AM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #355
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
China is a lot weaker than many people think. Having a predatory political overclass and crappy rule of law, plus a regime that prides itself on its history of genocidal tyranny doesn't make for sound economic development. The 6.5% growth figure in particular is almost certainly fake, as is pretty much all other data that comes out of China. When you look at the numbers they put out, nothing adds up. If they censor the central statistics, analysts go for the provincial statistics and find massive discrepancies. Then the Party censors those too and you have to look at other secondary data (before they're also redacted).

You can easily replace the Chinese with the Soviets. The Kremlin also ran great propaganda and had Westerners fooled about its supposedly awesome military strength up until the very end. From what I know, it's safe to say 2019 will be a repeat of 1989 (barring some craziness obviously).

(05-10-2019 12:13 AM)Fortis Wrote:  I think these tariffs need to happen to get China to cooperate with the rest of the world. You cannot play that typical diplomacy game with them. You have to bring them to their knees forcefully and then give them permission to stand. Equality is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Things are a zero-sum game. Winners and losers.
As a Chinese client recently told me, Trump is the 无赖 (scumbag) that America needs to handle China.
05-10-2019 12:46 AM
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Post: #356
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-09-2019 11:38 PM)Fortis Wrote:  China is feeling these tariffs, but these also came at the most inopportune time ever. China has had a MASSIVE pig flu that is destroying their pig population AND they're also getting smashed by the global soybean price hikes.

I've read in some places that they've had to slaughter upwards of 200m pigs. I'm not sure if this is making mainstream news yet but it's quite scary.

I think Brazil was the main place that would have been able to sell soy to China but they're dealing with a soy blight or something.

This leaves China in a position where they need to get their pigs and soy from the USA. Very unfortunate shit.

Not sure what this will do in the long-term but they aren't just shrugging this off so easily.

FINALLY!

Something positive about having a ton of soyboys in the USA.

Think about it: Our growing population of soyboys are creating so much demand for soy, they are now inadvertently contributing to bringing China down economically.

Strange times.
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2019 01:03 AM by The Black Knight.)
05-10-2019 01:00 AM
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TigerMandingo Online
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Post: #357
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
I bet somewhere in Appalachia right now, there is a jobless redneck with no health insurance who’s thinking “you know what.....we gotta take down China”.
05-10-2019 01:38 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Tiger, mind explaining that? I do not get that at all.
05-10-2019 03:42 AM
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Post: #359
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Takeoff of this tweet, presumably.

05-10-2019 06:32 AM
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Post: #360
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-10-2019 03:42 AM)Fortis Wrote:  Tiger, mind explaining that? I do not get that at all.

Trump focussing on the big bogey man of the day but average Americans who couldn't give two shits are struggling. So when it comes to parading yourself around the country to said average American POTUS can point to the bogey man being hit hard and you should vote for him based on that.

Meanwhile average joe gets what?
05-10-2019 07:18 AM
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Aquarius Offline
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Post: #361
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-10-2019 12:46 AM)Lunostrelki Wrote:  China is a lot weaker than many people think. Having a predatory political overclass and crappy rule of law, plus a regime that prides itself on its history of genocidal tyranny doesn't make for sound economic development. The 6.5% growth figure in particular is almost certainly fake, as is pretty much all other data that comes out of China. When you look at the numbers they put out, nothing adds up. If they censor the central statistics, analysts go for the provincial statistics and find massive discrepancies. Then the Party censors those too and you have to look at other secondary data (before they're also redacted).

You can easily replace the Chinese with the Soviets. The Kremlin also ran great propaganda and had Westerners fooled about its supposedly awesome military strength up until the very end. From what I know, it's safe to say 2019 will be a repeat of 1989 (barring some craziness obviously).

(05-10-2019 12:13 AM)Fortis Wrote:  I think these tariffs need to happen to get China to cooperate with the rest of the world. You cannot play that typical diplomacy game with them. You have to bring them to their knees forcefully and then give them permission to stand. Equality is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Things are a zero-sum game. Winners and losers.
As a Chinese client recently told me, Trump is the 无赖 (scumbag) that America needs to handle China.

If you really think that China will collapse in the next year or 2, I gotta say that your sorely mistaken. While China and the USSR are both run by Communist governments and both are notoriously opaque, the similarities end there. The USSR was brought down by economic inefficiency, poor civilian infrastructure, multiculturalism (with the top Communists of each ethnicity wanting their own slice of the pie), and getting bogged down by a dead-end war in the Middle East (Afghanistan). China on the other hand avoided these specific pitfalls of the Soviet Union by building a consumption economy, allowing foreign goods and services to flow into China (albeit with restrictions), and allowing its citizens to largely travel freely outside the country.

I do think that tariffs will bite this time. Its not because "God Emperor Trump brings the Red Communist Freaking Chinese to their knees", but simply a straw that breaks the camel's back. The main issue with China is that its economic and development model is starting to run out of steam for further growth.

China's economy is actually not as export dominated as you would think. Export-oriented manufacturing is what kickstarted China's rapid economic growth 20 years ago, but China's economy has grown to a point where the majority of the products manufactured are now used domestically. Tariffs alone will have just a negligible effect on the inevitable upcoming recession later this year. However, tariffs will lead to a string of indirect effects and shocks on the fragile economic model that's gonna grind the 30 years of nonstop rapid economic growth to a halt. Its overall effects will be rather similar to what Obama sanctions did to Russia. Of course, the actual effects on China will be much smaller as tariffs aren't sanctions, while the global effects much larger as China is not Russia.

What currently drives China's economic growth is in my opinion, construction. But there's only so many apartments you can build to house all those people, and so many airports you can build in cities that can support them. China is very close to hitting this point which partly explains Xi Jinping's rapid consolidation of control of Chinese society. In fact, China is due to hit a rut right around 2020 in any situation if just strictly studying economic data. On the topic of economic data, I think the Chinese GDP figures are more real than fake: If you been around any Chinese city, the amount of construction and spending patterns of locals does accurately reflect a booming, upper middle income nation.

In terms of the effects this will have on China and the world, I predict it to be a more severe version of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, since China is much more important and entrenched in the global economy than Thailand and South Korea, the 2 hardest hit countries of 1997.

If there's one place that will actually win from this tariffs war, it might be Hong Kong, even if the effects aren't as obvious right now. The more China is economically powerful and assertive on the international stage, the more Hong Kong's role gets threatened to be diminished to being "just a Chinese city". And given how the Chinese government works, in periods of stagnation or recession, the screws gets tightened domestically and this includes foreign companies in the Mainland (and expats). Since China isn't an irrelevant, replaceable country for the global economy, and won't be anytime soon, crackdowns domestically, especially if it involves foreign businesses, would drive a significant amount of foreign investments in China through a 2-way gate again. Enter Hong Kong, for the second time.

China is definitely a very opaque country: It's impossible to fully understand it even as a native living there. There's a reason why all the rich Chinese have a second home in the same 5 cities in the Anglosphere, and send their kids there instead of subjecting them to the opaque, dog-eat-dog world of Mainland Chinese business and politics.

What I can say is that China will definitely emerge from this upcoming recession as a different country. Don't count on it being Democrat at all. The best case scenario of perfectly executed reforms and a restrained but not passive geopolitical stance might as well cement China as a proper superpower of the 21st century. In the worst case scenario, it becomes a much more autocratic country, with the associated repression, closing of doors to expats, and decoupling from the global economy.
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2019 08:15 AM by Aquarius.)
05-10-2019 08:08 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Yeah, I doubt we'll see a collapse or anything of the sort. Most likely (hopefully) a more chill China. The worst case scenario is an aggressive, emboldened China. That's a really a long shot though. I couldn't see it going that way in the span of 6-8 years.
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2019 09:00 AM by Fortis.)
05-10-2019 08:57 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
The tariffs really don't take effect until June 1
In the three previous rounds of US tariffs on Chinese goods, they were implemented on everything arriving in the US and took effect immediately. This time there is a twist.

Seaborne cargoes shipped from China before midnight will not be subject to the new 25% tariffs as long as they arrive in the US prior to June 1. Those cargoes will be charged the old 10% rate.

"This delay might creates a window during which the US and China can continue to negotiate," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note, adding that it was a "somewhat positive sign" that talks were continuing today.
05-10-2019 09:22 AM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-10-2019 08:08 AM)Aquarius Wrote:  If you really think that China will collapse in the next year or 2, I gotta say that your sorely mistaken. While China and the USSR are both run by Communist governments and both are notoriously opaque, the similarities end there.

...

What I can say is that China will definitely emerge from this upcoming recession as a different country. Don't count on it being Democrat at all. The best case scenario of perfectly executed reforms and a restrained but not passive geopolitical stance might as well cement China as a proper superpower of the 21st century. In the worst case scenario, it becomes a much more autocratic country, with the associated repression, closing of doors to expats, and decoupling from the global economy.
I broadly agree with your post.

China won't collapse for the simple reason that except for the Uighurs, Tibetans, and Taiwanese, there are no other demographics who want to challenge the notion of a singular China. And apart from Taiwan, no separatist movement could succeed under any unified Chinese government.

When I say that 2019 could be a repeat of 1989, I'm referring to precisely those political similarities. The Chinese avoided a lot of the USSR's mistakes, but like the Soviet system, the CCP's political model is inefficient and unwieldly. Like you say, China is at a crossroads. They can either lock down the country to keep the CCP system intact (in which case China would look like North Korea, and be just as impoverished and outcast), or they can significantly rework things, starting with a serious implementation of rule of law.

Implementing any meaningful reform erodes the CCP's privileged status, and infringes on the interests of the "red capitalists" who sprouted up in the Deng and Jiang eras, and who effectively define the CCP's mission at this point. Since the 2000s, all attempts at reforming the CCP have run up against this brick wall of elite political-economic cliques. Xi Jinping's "deepening reforms" and "constitutional dream" of 2013 and 2014 failed to materialize.

Given the recent developments, it's possible Xi will force the reforms through this time, but the resistance he faces from the rest of the leadership is sure to be huge. No matter how he sells it, there will be some people who are going to try to get rid of him. They can either oust Xi directly, citing ideological reasons (a common one is to claim that the leader is "anti-Party"), or they can collectively rein him in and confine his authority to Zhongnanhai, much like the enlarged Politburo Standing Committee of 2003-2012 did with the Hu-Wen administration.

To combat this resistance while pushing through his reform, Xi likely has to take actions that undermine the political underpinnings of the CCP. This would include things like redressing sensitive political cases, gradually/selectively uncensoring the internet, and emphasizing the authority of the civil government rather than the Party (conveniently, Xi's "for-life" leadership status applies to the position of president). If this works, the result might be that Xi finishes in a similar political position to what Putin currently has in Russia, while the authoritarianism system is remolded into some kind of semi-liberal system like what exists in Singapore.

Hence, what comes of the trade deal, if it is signed, in the next few months could potentially be game-changing.
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2019 01:25 PM by Lunostrelki.)
05-10-2019 01:22 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
The Chinese trade team has left for the airport and the White House is drafting up a statement. The big question is whether we get it before the close.

Hopefully in time to put on positions.
05-10-2019 02:10 PM
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911 Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
The problem with our guys in China is that they lack historic perspective, they've been to China in the last decade or two, as opposed to back when you were considered well off if you had a new Flying Pigeon bike and running water in your studio.

This is Beijing in 1980:

[Image: 12332711_5.jpg?w=736]

[Image: 12332711_1.jpg?w=736]

Beijing, Shanghai, today:

[Image: maxresdefault.jpg]

[Image: 4670828100_7439be2865_b.jpg]



The fact is, this generation of Chinese is so incredibly better off than the preceding one, and the next one will be even better off, as will the one after that. China's GDP per capita is 1/6th the US', and will more than triple in the next few decades, as the country will surge ahead of the US as the economic world leader.

And contrary to the growing wealth gap and Brazilification of western economies, this surge in wealth, the greatest ever recorded in the entire history of humanity, is very widely spread, with over half a billion Chinese lifted out of poverty into middle classdom.

So you can make a very solid argument about their leaders looking out for the welfare of their people, overseeing their country's stunning economic growth and laying out their future welfare with trillions in infrastructure investments and shrewd trade deals across the world, while the US has been borrowing trillions, bleeding its taxpayers and soldiers in useless mideast wars, and scrapping their industrial base for better returns on their capital.

Our oligarchs hate us, their leaders are delivering for their people. They promote nationalism through great historic series, ban baizuo (((cultural marxism))) and avoid wars while still building up their military. Our leaders are hell bent on destroying us demographically, on demoralizing us and subverting us through degenerate mass culture and academia, and on crushing us with debt from endless wars, six figure college debt and trillion dollar bankster giveaways.

This is the kind of perspective you need to keep when talking about "the US" or "China" in the context of global policy.

λ ό γ ο ς
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2019 04:05 PM by 911.)
05-10-2019 03:50 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-10-2019 12:13 AM)Fortis Wrote:  To give you guys some more context, American businesses are dropping off China like fleas off a dog. I'm friends with a few American businessmen who have moved operations to Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico and other spots because The Chinese authorities are becoming a bit too draconian with their regulations.

One might even be able to say that the American tariffs are inadvertently protecting American intellectual property since all these businesses are fleeing China.

We're definitely in for some interesting times.

Despite what China would have you think they're still very much in the "assimilate and improve" phase of their technological dominance. There are a few Chinese brands that are great but they haven't really come out with anything that is truly ground-breaking that they can put their stamp on. Most of their best stuff is just reverse-engineered technology from other countries. They can only create good shit when someone else creates better shit.

I think these tariffs need to happen to get China to cooperate with the rest of the world. You cannot play that typical diplomacy game with them. You have to bring them to their knees forcefully and then give them permission to stand. Equality is a foreign concept to the Chinese. Things are a zero-sum game. Winners and losers.

I guess I should add that my family has some business in China and it's only through this means, fortunately, I get to see China behind the fake media lens and Trump twitters (that have become unfortunately come off the truth in some way). I know Chinese and I hence I get to access some of their websites and information, some of them are prolly made up, but hey, I've been receiving leftist media for all of my life, I'm trained for this.

It's sad that libtard media, instead of informing our citizens the truth about China so we can better prepare and adapt to the changing situation, has resorted to distorting the truth and deceiving our citizens. The last thing they should do when perceiving China as a threat would be making our citizens UNDERESTIMATING them. How far are these nutjobs going with their write-ups, China collapse theories left right and centre, then throw in a Russia-rigged election for good measure? So much time could have spent on constructive discourse and advancement, yet they choose to instigate divisions and disconnect us from the outside world.

The tariffs aren't protecting American intellectual property, and most importantly, often the tech isn't important anyway. Mostly it's just copying car designs or luxury logos, which counts as intellectual property, sure, but it's too insignificant to start a war or write pages and pages about it, which happens to be the case because intellectual property sounds sophisticated to the common GI, and by extrapolation a lot of us can get on the fear mongering bandwagon started by the corporations. In the factory I work with, most of the tech was transferred once the factories are complete and the rest usually over 5-10 years' time. Now most foreign-invested businesses have been here since the 90s', so what's done already done. Apparently it's all the same over there. Yes restrictions do come up but usually it's not too demanding and are mostly welfare benefits for employees, medical insurance being one, but Chinese prices aren't that high.

Recently there has been talk amongst my family too to move the business to Vietnam or Indonesia, haven't decided which one yet, but we are moving soon. The number 1 factor is not the regulations but the cost. The labour costs are rising due to a better economy, and it's time to move. Your friends probably moved because the Chinese government doesn't want sweatshops on their turf anymore, let's face it. Can you tell me which specific regulation do they consider draconian? Maybe I received that notice too. Anyway, China doesn't need foreign investors anymore, they developed half of the country and they now have their own factories to develop the other half. The demand is not as big over there but that's where the Belt and Road Initiative comes in, an economic zone without America sticking its finger in and sufficiently underdeveloped for them to dump excess steel and cement onto.

Same thing goes with Chinese tech. We all had that broken Chinese fridge we bought just 6 months ago and the Japanese one which worked fine for 15 years, and it's affecting our perception on China. The fridge breaks because the wholesaler at the other end didn't want a good fridge so YOU can keep coming back and buying them. It's the fault of OUR corporations to ask for shitty products to entrap us in their consumption cycle. Did you know the optical fibre was invented by a Chinese? No, because he refused to patent it so people around the world can use it. Edison, on the other hand, as a clever corporate prick, stuffed his pants full of cash.

The Chinese are also working on various frontiers of technology. These get broadcasted in China a lot, but rarely in America, maybe because they are keeping it to themselves and not to the rest of the world. One example is that China has been No. 1 in quantum communications since the 90's, right now it even has its own technology blockade against the world on nonlinear optics, a vital aspect of data encryption, communication and satellite (anti)reconnaissance. If Hillary Clinton had this, she wouldn't even have to worry about being thrown in jail. Here's a Japanese report (objective enough?) on the recent American success against Chinese tech blockade. Funny to hear that, we don't hear it going the other way round often.
https://by56014904.hatenablog.com/entry/.../26/151600

Thing is there is truth on both sides, America says China doesn't play by the rules, and vice versa. During my time exploring Chinese forums funnily in parallel literally everyone had been saying it's "Western mentality" to play zero-sum games, not theirs. As logical men, we engage in actual scrutiny, and don't act like blue haired SJWs pandering to the media only on what they believe and outright tossing info that doesn't match stereotypical perceptions out of the window. We are grown men, we look at both sides of the story and talk proof. We need to stop believing in sensationalist, preconditioned stories that don't give proof. This is our duty as responsible individuals: to uphold our morals and judgment against a decaying world.
05-11-2019 01:06 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-10-2019 03:50 PM)911 Wrote:  The problem with our guys in China is that they lack historic perspective, they've been to China in the last decade or two, as opposed to back when you were considered well off if you had a new Flying Pigeon bike and running water in your studio.

This is Beijing in 1980:

[Image: 12332711_5.jpg?w=736]

[Image: 12332711_1.jpg?w=736]

Beijing, Shanghai, today:

[Image: maxresdefault.jpg]

[Image: 4670828100_7439be2865_b.jpg]



The fact is, this generation of Chinese is so incredibly better off than the preceding one, and the next one will be even better off, as will the one after that. China's GDP per capita is 1/6th the US', and will more than triple in the next few decades, as the country will surge ahead of the US as the economic world leader.

And contrary to the growing wealth gap and Brazilification of western economies, this surge in wealth, the greatest ever recorded in the entire history of humanity, is very widely spread, with over half a billion Chinese lifted out of poverty into middle classdom.

So you can make a very solid argument about their leaders looking out for the welfare of their people, overseeing their country's stunning economic growth and laying out their future welfare with trillions in infrastructure investments and shrewd trade deals across the world, while the US has been borrowing trillions, bleeding its taxpayers and soldiers in useless mideast wars, and scrapping their industrial base for better returns on their capital.

Our oligarchs hate us, their leaders are delivering for their people. They promote nationalism through great historic series, ban baizuo (((cultural marxism))) and avoid wars while still building up their military. Our leaders are hell bent on destroying us demographically, on demoralizing us and subverting us through degenerate mass culture and academia, and on crushing us with debt from endless wars, six figure college debt and trillion dollar bankster giveaways.

This is the kind of perspective you need to keep when talking about "the US" or "China" in the context of global policy.


What should I say about this.... OK. China is the land of 1.4 billion warrior-redpill alpha males who are foaming at the mouth to take over the world. Along with Russia, China's Greatest Ally and brother-in-arms, a country that that they formed a deep social, military, and economic alliance with. Chinese alpha males that Russian women are throwing themselves at, and a Shanghai that Russians are desperate to keep their money in. A combined Russia-China superstate with a shared elite defending the world against the Washington Mordor.

This is the other end of the spectrum of the "Red Communist Freaking Chinese" that I'm talking about here. Projecting China as the "good guy" that's standing up against the "bad guy" US. Having deep experiences in both countries, nothing is this black and white. The US isn't the "evil empire", nor are the Chinese the "good guys".

I wouldn't say that the Chinese government is Han Chinese nationalist at all, or that they even put looking after them a priority. Just like the US or Russian governments, the Chinese government cares about one thing: Power. The same Chinese Communist Party that slaughtered 80 million of its own people, ruined its culture, and turned back its economic clock by at least 30 years is in fact, the same party that oversaw the past 30 years of economic growth and the same party that's "banning" "baizuo". They switched gears in the late 1970s after they realized that to hold onto power in China, they'll have to immediately stop with the North Korean nonsense, and implement a market economy and attach itself with the global economic chain with countries like the US and Japan.

It is just that the Chinese and the US are in different phases of their civilizations. Think of civilizations as seasons. The West, which includes the Anglosphere and Western Europe, is in "Autumn". They've already had their peak. Except for Germany, every single major Western European nation has taken turns essentially ruling half the planet for nearly half a millenium. In fact, WWII and the subsequent Western civilization passing the torch onto the United States, a new country created during the peak of Western civilization, was already a sign that Summer is transitioning into Autumn. When civilization transitions into Autumn, which we are currently witnessing, decadence sets in, the values that made the civilization great gets forgotten, and the elites start getting greedy and any feeling of attachment to the people they rule over gets decoupled. Feminism and immigration are just signs of a decadent civilization, and (((they))) are just taking advantage of the situation for their own gains.

On the other hand, China is in Spring. Keep in mind before the era of widespread international trade and western empires, it was historically accounted for about as much GDP as the entire Western world combined. Then it underwent some hard times after the decadent Ming Empire got conquered by Siberian nomads (Manchus), who by virtue of being foreign conquerors, did not run a tight ship over the foreign people (Han Chinese) they were ruling over. Not long after, China went through a century of turmoil, marked by multiple bloody armed uprisings (Taiping Rebellion and the Boxer Rebellion before the successful coup in 1911 against the Manchu elite). War never ended until the 1949, and even then the Chinese Communist Party who eventually emerged victorious in this century-long struggle, a Winter phase of the Chinese civilization where it reduced itself to African-levels of poverty outside of the European colonies, spent 30 years butchering the country in a mixture of being clueless how to run a nation and the negative effects power has on humankind.

As explained earlier, after the Chinese Communist Party found itself running over essentially a disastrous ruin of a country in the late 70s, they saw the then success of the United States and pivoted to them: Both seeking a closer relationship with them and copying parts of their economic model. This was naturally a society transitioning from Winter to Spring. Right now, we are still in Spring, but this season is about to end soon.

Now, on the long term trend of China. I see that the Communist Party as essentially a type of Chinese Dynasty and the "century of humiliation" as one of those Warring States period in between Chinese dynasties. Like all dynasties, presiding over an economically prosperous time period is power. We haven't hit Summer yet, a season that not all civilizations get to experience. A large recession is always necessary for civilizations to transfer from Spring into Summer, and this is what we're witnessing close up ahead. However, to maintain power, whether the Chinese government chooses the short term but easy way out (autocracy), or the long term but hard way out (reforms), will determine whether China gets to transition into summer or stuck in a middle income trap decoupled from the world economy again.

Overall, I envision "peak China" as a place that more or less has current day Singapore's political model, and a society, local populace, and quality of life that resembles modern day South Korea, with the expat size/friendliness on par with Japan. With a level headed leadership, I believe this will be achieved in the latter half of this century. Many civilizations never get to experience a "summer" due to poor leadership (USSR, Argentina spring to mind) or due to a population that can't really run a first world society (Brazil, Thailand spring to mind), so this is a critical crossroads for Chinese civilization if it doesn't want to fall into the former camp. I've ruled out the latter situation for the Chinese due both to their complex historical epochs and also modern track records in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore.

And on the Uyghur re-education camps, I wouldn't believe in the Western media nonsense nor cheer for them. It's just a heavy handed way to maintain their grip on power in the region. From what I know, Xinjiang is 40% Han Chinese, and they are subject to the same security theater as the Uyghurs. The Chinese government isn't about "jailing Uyghurs", but about throwing potentially troublesome people to their rule of law into those camps. Try being a Han NEET in Urumqi. Chances are you'll end up in the same camps.
(This post was last modified: 05-11-2019 04:05 PM by Aquarius.)
05-11-2019 03:59 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
China has a long history.

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(This post was last modified: 05-11-2019 04:16 PM by Transsimian.)
05-11-2019 04:00 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-09-2019 10:02 PM)TigerMandingo Wrote:  Just some things China has been through in its history:

- massive social upheavals
- civil wars
- devastating earthquakes
- brutal dynasty rivalries
- starvation
- communism

Pretty sure they can handle some bogus-ass tariffs. The Chinese are hardened motherfuckers.

China is a 5,000 years civilization.
Along this wide period of time it has endured brutal dynastic fights.
The Mongol invasion.
Thousands of recorded famines (between 108 BC and 1911 AD there were no fewer than 1,828 recorded famines in China, or nearly one each year)
The Opium Wars from the evil British Empire, an empire of drugs and debt.
The Japanese invasion of Manchuria
The Russian invasion of the Far East.
The brutal civil war after WWII
And today has an hybrid Marxist-Maoist-Capitalist-Confucianist regime that has rocketed it into World economic supremacy.

Chinese give a shit about Mr MAGA and all his antics.

With God's help, I'll conquer this terrible affliction.

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Diaboli virtus in lumbar est -The Devil's virtue is in his loins.
(This post was last modified: 05-11-2019 04:49 PM by Luvianka.)
05-11-2019 04:29 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
This may affect the Belt and Road Initiative:

Pakistan attack: Gunmen storm five-star hotel in Balochistan

[Image: _106917721_04aefb0e-bfb3-43d5-ada5-69a373f52285.jpg]

Quote:Three gunmen have stormed a five-star hotel in the restive Pakistani province of Balochistan, killing at least one person, officials say.

The attack targeted the Zaver Pearl-Continental Hotel in the strategic port city of Gwadar, the centrepiece of a multi-billion-dollar Chinese project.


A hotel spokesman said there were no guests and few staff due to Ramadan.

The separatist Balochistan Liberation Army said it had carried out the attack to target Chinese and other investors.

"Expect more attacks China and Pakistan," said a Twitter account that claimed to be linked to the group.

Militants in Balochistan oppose Chinese investment, saying it is of little benefit to local people.


What do we know about the attack?

The gunmen stormed the hotel, usually popular with top government officials and foreign visitors, at around 16:50 local time (11:50 GMT), killing one security guard who tried to stop them at the entrance.

Security forces entered the hotel and took part in a gun battle with the militants.

Due to the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the hotel had no guests and a very limited number of staff, a Zaver Pearl-Continental spokesperson told the BBC.

However, earlier reports suggested that hotel guests had been evacuated safely.

The hotel sits on a hilltop overlooking the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, which is being developed by China as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a network of roads, railway and pipelines between the two countries.

On Twitter, the Chinese embassy in Pakistan condemned the attack, which comes just weeks after gunmen killed 14 people, including 11 military personnel, in the region.

------------------------
A worrying breach of security

Gwadar is a city with a heavy military presence. It is viewed by both Chinese and Pakistani officials as the lynchpin of the CPEC, aiming to connect western China with the Arabian Sea.


When I visited the port city in late 2017 with other international journalists, we travelled in convoys guarded by armed escorts, and stayed in the same hotel that was targeted.

This attack will therefore be seen as a worrying breach of security, and it is not the first time Chinese interests have been targeted by this militant group. Last year the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) carried out an attack on the Chinese consulate in Karachi.

After that attack, both Pakistani and Chinese officials stressed that violence would not derail their close co-operation. But militant activity in Balochistan remains one of the major concerns about the viability of the CPEC project.

-----------------
What is the situation in Balochistan?

Home to a long-running insurgency, Balochistan is Pakistan's poorest and least developed province.

It shares a large, porous border with Afghanistan and Iran.

[Image: _106917719_a6baf11e-a28a-4792-9f62-0d9ba6bf8062.png]

Its economy is dominated by natural resources, particularly natural gas, and is being transformed by major Chinese infrastructure projects on the CPEC, part of the ambitious Belt and Road initiative.

Several militant groups operate in the region, including the Pakistani Taliban, the BLA and the Sunni Muslim extremist group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
05-11-2019 11:19 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
05-12-2019 02:50 PM
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Hansel Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(05-12-2019 02:50 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

I speculate nothing will come for another 6 months. Let's see if it holds or not.
05-12-2019 02:59 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
I agree. The Chinese wont budge on intellectual property theft, force technology transfer, currency manipulation, etc., if they do then they won't budge on the enforcement mechanisms.
05-12-2019 03:53 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread


05-13-2019 08:26 PM
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