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The Trump China Policy Thread
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jj90 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 05:34 PM)Enigma Wrote:  @jj90:

Roughly 300 million in China live on $3.10 or less a day. That's less than $100 a month. Even unemployed people on welfare in the US have a MUCH BETTER standard of living than that. These are basic facts.

Have YOU actually been in "any inner city ghetto"? I've lived in one. We had hot water throughout the house (as required by law), central heating and air, insulated walls, dishwasher, microwave, full-sized stove and oven, a flat screen TV, etc.

That was a place that cost $500/month for a two-bedroom duplex in a Section 8 neighborhood, basically the floor for rental prices in the US. Meanwhile, even many higher-end homes and condos in parts of Asia don't have all of these features, including hot water in the kitchen (which is, again, required by law in the US).

And then you still have to account for the fact that households are much larger in most of Asia compared to the US.

Comparing "poverty" in the US to poverty in China -- and most of the world -- is apples to oranges, and shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

This is why you desperately try to disqualify everyone else from commenting -- your arguments suck.

But continue you with your meltdown.

I really like how you ignore the rest of my counters to your other points. But hey, as you yourself said -- your arguments suck. So it's ok I'll let those slide, you have nothing there or you would have said something. Come again, store's open.

To the point in your post I'm replying to: Cost of living in the rural areas in China are relative to those wages. I don't deny they are poor, but they aren't too bad relative to the cost of living for them.

And yes, indeed I have. I lived in Mattapan the shittest section of Boston. And no, it wasn't all that bad.

And sure, poverty is China != poverty in the US. So let's look at your original reply to my point.

Quote:Foolsgo1d has it right. The biggest threat to the Chinese govt is the Chinese people. China has a history of overthrowing its rulers. The US while a much younger country, has 2. Overthrowing the ruling dynasty is just a footnote in the history of China.
Quote:Does the US have 300+ million people living in extreme poverty?
All of your arguments seem to be based on "the US does stuff too!"

If you are making the argument that yeah it was more likely that China has more unrest because of more people and historically shittier living conditions then sure, but then what does that have to with the US and more concisely, the Trump's administration's policies? Are you being obtuse for the sake of being retarded? Or did I just trigger you?

Please, educate me then.
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 06:16 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 06:00 PM
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Enigma Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 06:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  I really like how you ignore the rest of my counters to your other points.

I ignored them because you ignore basic logic.

Here are some examples

Quote:Funny, you didn't seem to call out other countries in the world who pegged their currencies vs the USD. Hmm, your bias is showing.

Because I didn't bring up every other country that pegs their currencies in a thread about the US and China, I'm biased.

It's a totally nonsensical argument.

Here's another one.

Quote:So let's get to the fundamental argument here: China pegs its currency to the US Dollar and has capital controls. But wait, didn't you yourself say no one gives a fuck what China does with its own currency?

Here's what I actually said.

Enigma Wrote:No one gives a fuck what China does with their own currency -- except when it's done specifically to take advantage of the US in trade.

You deliberately misquote/misrepresent what I said in some lame attempt at catching me in a contradiction, when actually my comment was pretty clear.

Quote:If you are making the argument that yeah it was more likely that China has more unrest because of more people and historically shittier living conditions then sure, but then what does that have to with the US and more concisely, the Trump's administration's policies? Are you being obtuse for the sake of being retarded? Or did I just trigger you?

Please, educate me then.

You're the one who brought up America's two revolutions/civil wars.

You're the one who then compared American ghettos to the living conditions in China.

Now you want me to explain what they have to do with the conversation.

Like I said, enjoy your meltdown.
02-13-2017 06:34 PM
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jj90 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 06:34 PM)Enigma Wrote:  I ignored them because you ignore basic logic.
Where have I heard that before? Everyone who cannot construct a relevant counterpoint. At this point Enigma, you are no better than a SJW who screams "patriarchy" for no reason. Yawn. Try again.
Quote:Because I didn't bring up every other country that pegs their currencies in a thread about the US and China, I'm biased.

It's a totally nonsensical argument.
Right, so we should ignore the Saudi/UAE/etc peg to the US dollar so they can sell oil to the US at an inflated rate? Lack of basic macroeconomics on your point. Where's the outrage there? Yeah, ok wise one in the Philippines. Try a basic economics course.

Enigma Wrote:No one gives a fuck what China does with their own currency -- except when it's done specifically to take advantage of the US in trade.

You deliberately misquote/misrepresent what I said in some lame attempt at catching me in a contradiction, when actually my comment was pretty clear.
I love how you try to make fallacious arguments that I'm misquoting you when you can't counter my point which is: every country manipulates it's currency to get a competitive advantage.

Yup, keep burying your head in the sand. Oh no, the US are saints! LOL. You have 0 understanding of global macroeconomics. A chimpanzee is more knowledgeable on geopolitics than you.
Quote:You're the one who brought up America's two revolutions/civil wars.

You're the one who then compared American ghettos to the living conditions in China.

Now you want me to explain what they have to do with the conversation.

Like I said, enjoy your meltdown.
I brought up China's many revolutions as a comparison to the US as a point to Foolsgo1d's point which I agree with, that the populace of China is what the Chinese govt really fears.

Somehow, that triggered you into saying they have 300M more people in poverty(which proves my point) and bringing up the poverty level of the US and China. WTF?????

Seems like you are having the meltdown? Shall I ship you a tampon via Amazon? Oh wait, you aren't in the US. You are just some dude in the Philippines pontificating on foreign policy that got triggered because someone disagrees with your worldview.

Gents of RVF, Enigma! Alt right SJW! Go cry me a river. Or better yet, go help the fine people of Manila/Davao/Cebu/etc. At least you aren't a useless human being then.

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(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 07:49 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 07:43 PM
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Post: #29
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
High quality meltdown.

jj90, can you explain why this issue is so important to you? You seem physically angry that the US might declare China a currency manipulator, or push back against its territorial enchroachments with this island building nonsense.

"We're gonna win at every single level. We're gonna win so so much you're gonna get sick and tired of it. And I'm gonna say, 'I don't care!' We're gonna keep winning, because we're gonna make America great again! We're gonna make it greater than ever before!"
-Donald Trump
02-13-2017 08:28 PM
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jj90 Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 08:28 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  High quality meltdown.

jj90, can you explain why this issue is so important to you? You seem physically angry that the US might declare China a currency manipulator, or push back against its territorial enchroachments with this island building nonsense.

No brother. That's not a meltdown. That's me destroying the weak arguments others are bringing.

A meltdown looks like this: FUCK YOU YOU FASCIST SCUM. I"M GONNA KILL YOU AND YOR WHITE POWR FRIENDZSZ. FUK WHITE PROVILEGE. FHBSDFBDBSDHFBHSDJH. YOU FUCKING HITLER.

All I'm trying to say to these triggered fools, and very few people in this thread is triggered(unlike Enigma), that Trump's administration needs to be very careful on aggressive policies with China. Unlike previous administrations, it has a very real chance of leading to war at the end of it because of the people in Trump's administration. And it is not the people in this thread who will pay with their blood.

Labeling China a currency manipulator won't do shit except make a "we are angry" statement from CCTV. Sending the 7th Fleet into the South China Sea is a different story. Aggressive policies economically(trade sanctions) or militarily need to be reexamined many times or outright discarded if the probability of outright conflict is too high.

I'm confident that if Trump and Xi talk, there will be an amenable conclusion to this all. I cannot say the same if Tillerson for example, has a bad fucking day. Then Mattis gets kung pao chicken instead of chicken chow mein at a meeting and has a bad fucking day, then the God Emperor has to face down WW3 at the end of it all or have a revolt in his administration.

Secondly, I'm also pointing out to these alt right SJW moral crusaders, that while China isn't a shining example of fairness, neither is the US. Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people. But apparently, having a different viewpoint on the US is heresy. I never knew alt right manosphere cucks get butt hurt so easily on a competing viewpoint.
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 11:19 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 10:59 PM
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Post: #31
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
@jj90

"Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people."

Really?

The whole point of Trump's campaign was that the US government resolutely refuses to do exactly that - in multiple areas.

“The world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it.”

- V.S Naipaul 'A Bend in the river'
02-14-2017 08:39 AM
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Roosh Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
7 day ban for jj90.

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02-14-2017 08:46 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(01-17-2017 10:45 AM)Arado Wrote:  1) Their One Belt One Road plan to create massive infrastructure in Asia will give them tremendous economic leverage over their neighbors. They also started their own infrastructure development bank, the AIIB. Finally, the RMB is now a reserve currency for the IMF.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/12...r-d04.html


2) China continues to be a massive violator of U.S. intellectual property rights and is making it increasingly difficult for U.S. companies to operate there.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy...-companies


3) China is moving into many industries that we've done well with, from apps, to airplanes, to smartphones. Their big picture objective is to buy up the world's technology and dominate manufacturing for the near future.
https://www.merics.org/en/press-contact/...s-fernost/



4) Despite the media and many on this forum insisting that China is on the verge of collapse, we've heard this same BS for DECADES now and yet China continues to chug along. If they keep investing an ever growing % of their GDP in their military, then eventually it will get to a point where the cost of projecting power into China's backyard will no longer be sustainable for a US that is facing severe demographic pressures in the next decade.

Hey I saw this topic before but I thought Id write some. I preface this that I am not a China scholar or anything but Ive read some books and lived in China for a while.

To start I don't think Trump and China are doing anything different that what Japan and China have been doing for a very long time. For decades now Japan has its leaders go to different shrines and it has some military leaders from WWII there who are war criminals. China gets all riled up, leaders denounce so and so. Japan gets all riled up, Japan says it wont back down from China or do as they say. Its all show. Its shoring up the base. Its the same with second amendment rights, abortion, whatever. Countries, political parties, nationalism, all rely on shoring up the base, getting people to look at the magic act, not on the magicians other hands. For example, Japan is massively invested in China. Japan completely relies on that huge, nearly unbelievable investment in China. They are not going to war over some rocky island somewhere that may or may not have oil (not likely). Leaders need to act tough. Trump yapping about this or that is the same deal. In China every day there is some South China Sea BS about Vietnam, Phillipines, whatever. No one is going to war. Its a complete non-issue.

There is a very good book about this by a Japan scholar who spent years in Japan.

https://www.amazon.com/Jaws-Dragon-Ameri...rica+china

1) The one belt idea is really good in theory but wont work financially. Their high speed rail system is a huge albatross. The nation just spent a very large amount of money, using bonds for some of the investment, to build the first stage or two. Now China wants to double or triple the size. Problem is, the trains are largely empty. I know the idea is to build satellite cities and use the high speed rail, switch over to the subway. Come on. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars on train systems that are empty. Take the train somewhere and get off at one of the non-main stops. New train stations in the middle of nowhere, empty.

Hears the deal. Outside tier one cities in China the whole thing is a paper tiger. Where I lived in NE China there are thousands of 40-80 story buildings that completely empty. In some of the larger cities where I have been, huge 5-6 story malls that must be in the tens of millions of dollars are completely empty. Go on a Tuesday afternoon, maybe see 10-20 customers, total. Someone is paying interest on all these investments. Or, if not, then all the banks in China are insolvent. I think people are not paying interest, they dont have any customers. You can decide which would be better? I used to practice my Chinese at a Mixc Mall in Shenyang, I asked went from shop to shop and asked how many shoes or coats they sold this week, chatting in Chinese with every shopgirl. Sometimes they said 3-4 pairs of shoes, total, that week. Shanghai and Beijing are fine. Wuhan, Shenyang, Tianjin, Chongqing are building enormous malls, office complexes that are empty, bar streets, etc. Then there are all the 3rd and 4th tier cities. China has something like 150 cities with a million people, but most are complete shitholes with big malls and office complexes that are empty and those loans are either being paid for or not. Then on top of that china wants this One Belt thing. Someone added up all the costs and it was in the trillions of dollars. China does not have trillions of dollars to spend on anything, let alone a high speed rail system to Shitholistan then off to Turkey. Plane travel works just fine.

2) The idea that China has an open and free market is bunch of BS. When I watched Leader Xi talking nonsense at Davos I threw up in my mouth a little. My friend in the USA was telling me, China doesn't have import taxes, why should the USA. Good Lord. Buying a pair of Nikes in China is 50-100% more expensive than in the USA. Import taxes.

Honestly Chinese people know that Chinese stuff is largely garbage. Is it getting better, Yes. Is it still really bad quality for high price, yes. Chinese people will continue to want western things for 1)face 2) quality 3) piece of mind it wont explode or poison their children.

3) I will wait for seeing is believing if China can make the leap from garbage to high quality goods. Here's the deal. China needs full employment or the people are going to revolt. If property prices go down and all the people in China lose 20-40% on their main investment, their property, people will revolt. China must have complete working population to keep the property prices high. See the problem?

All the industries on China need constant reinvestment to keep the factories going. That is just to keep adding more factory jobs and keeping people working. Ive read some very convincing articles/books that China can not simply close those factories, top down push demand for higher tech factories to open and build, sell those goods. All the while keeping employment high, creating new jobs, etc. Its very difficult to be running full speed in low quality goods and somehow make the leap, close al those factories, train all those people, get them working at another factory, create new brands etc. Can you think of any Chinese brand in the world? Huawei? Haier? Lining? Nothing they sell is better or cheaper than other brands. Period. So the idea that they will take over the market for decent things doesn't make any sense since they don't have even one example now. At least with S.Korea, Japan, they had Hyundai, Sony, Toshiba. You could see that they made at least one or two things at a high quality so making more wasn't unrealistic. China, the second largest economy, hasn't even created one brand that isn't shit. By the time China can copy something that matters, their wages will be high enough that they cant undercut by price. That's essentially what is happening now. China won on price for decades, now they are getting close to not winning on price but still haven't invented anything worthwhile. Just stealing or coopting other brands that set up factories in China. China must get rich before it gets old, its wages increase too much, people lose faith in the party. I don't see it happening.

https://www.amazon.com/Unfair-Trade-Brok...+china+usa

This book mentions and gives very solid backing for the argument I just made. It has a large China section. Worth checking out, he makes the argument much better than I just did. Again, I'm not a China scholar, I just don't see the proof in the pudding yet. Nothing is good that is made by Chinese. Not even the in the Chinese factories producing, for example, BMW cars in Shenyang. I used to drink often with the Germans who ran those factories and they said the Chinese made absolute shit vehicles compared to the same thing in German. So not only can Chinese not make their own brand, even under German supervision and training they cant put things together at a high quality level.

4) Its China that is facing the severe demographic issues. The one child that will need to support his parents and grandparents. Whats also interesting is that at some point there is going to an economic slowdown in China. I personally believe its already here, but if not, its coming sooner or later. As I mentioned above all the banks in China are loaning out billions of dollars to things that are empty and not getting any return. That, plus a slowdown in growth from no children, plus higher wages, plus no quality innovation will, eventually, hit China.

Its like looking at the housing boom in the USA and everyone said it could continue forever. Sooner or later, people would stop paying their loans. China is in the same boat. With a whole other set of issues to deal with.

So to sum up: I don't think Trump is doing anything different than Japan, Taiwan, whomever. He simply asserting that the USA is not a lapdog anymore. China does this all the time. If anyone wants to deal with China they have a list of BS that must be adhered to a mile long. They can go to hell, honestly. The USA will give their list as well. Its simply being prudent and doesn't foretell WWIII anymore than Japan and China yelling about islands as they massively invest in each others economy. What leaders need to say and what the economy does are separate.


http://www.baldingsworld.com/

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/01/27/...part-ii-a/

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/01/18/...-in-davos/

Here are two recent topics about China's economic state and the BS Xi was spouting at Davos.

This guy is an economist based in Shenzhen, hes been there a while. If you want to know more about the economic state in China, go through and read this blog for the last few years. He received death threats, harassment, people are angry about his knowledge and assessment of China. Some of the stuff I don't understand because I lack the knowledge, but the stuff I do understand and his commentary don't paint a good picture.

Trump should not bow down to anyone, China most of all. But the idea that not bending over backward is the precursor to WWIII does not compute for me.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2017 01:14 AM by ball dont lie.)
02-16-2017 01:05 AM
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Post: #34
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Excellent post BallDon'tLie, I'm thinking the same
02-16-2017 01:17 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0216/c90000-9178826.html Wrote:Draft maritime law revisions say China may bar foreign ships from passing through its waters
China is to revise its 1984 Maritime Traffic Safety Law, which would allow the relevant authorities to bar some foreign ships from passing through Chinese territorial waters.
The Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council announced Tuesday it is soliciting public opinions on the revisions.
The draft would empower maritime authorities to prevent foreign ships from entering Chinese waters if it is decided that the ships may harm traffic safety and order.
The draft revisions stipulate that authorities will be able to designate specific areas and temporarily bar foreign ships from passing through those areas according to their own assessment of maritime traffic safety.
The revisions are based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and Chinese laws on the sea, adjacent areas and exclusive economic zones, the office said.
Wang Xiaopeng, a maritime border expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the revisions will provide legal support for China to safeguard its maritime rights.
"As a sovereign State and the biggest coastal State in, for example, the South China Sea, China is entitled to adjust its maritime laws as needed, which will also promote peace and stable development in the waters," Wang said.
Yang Cuibai, a professor with the School of Law at Sichuan University, agreed, saying that "the revisions will strengthen China's management over territorial waters in a new era when the country's communication and trade with foreign countries in the waters have sharply increased."
Yang added that China should take the lead to establish the legal order in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
Foreign submersibles should travel on the surface, display national flags and report to Chinese maritime management administrations when they pass China's water areas, the draft says. They should also get approval from the relevant administrations to enter China's internal waters and ports.
Foreign military ships that are approved to enter China's waters should apply for pilotage. Foreign ships that enter Chinese waters without approval will be fined 300,000-500,000 yuan ($43,706-72,844) and those violating Chinese laws would be expelled, it said.
"China's waters are open to foreign ships as long as they do not damage the waters' safety, order, or China's sovereignty," Yang said.
The draft also states that people in distress at sea have the right to be rescued without charge, adding that human lives should come before the environment and assets.
The State Council and local governments should set up maritime search and rescue centers, if needed, to organize, coordinate and command rescue operations, the draft says. Civilian groups are also encouraged by the revised regulations to set up rescue teams and participate in such operations.
The revisions will take effect in 2020.

It's interesting that this aggressive new policy statement came out after the Xi-Trump call.

China likes to make big boastful threats to compensate for its weakness, but they also don't want the people to turn against them, so it is strange how they are doubling down and publicising a policy that'll lead to a military defeat.

Could it be that they want to lose a limited war as a way of blaming the coming economic problems on foreign imperialist aggression and not the party's own shortcomings
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2017 02:48 PM by Transsimian.)
02-16-2017 02:47 PM
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Wutang Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
I wonder if China setting the revisions to take place in 2020 has anything to do with them trying to wait out Trump's presidential term.
02-18-2017 12:24 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-16-2017 02:47 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  It's interesting that this aggressive new policy statement came out after the Xi-Trump call.

China likes to make big boastful threats to compensate for its weakness, but they also don't want the people to turn against them, so it is strange how they are doubling down and publicising a policy that'll lead to a military defeat.

Could it be that they want to lose a limited war as a way of blaming the coming economic problems on foreign imperialist aggression and not the party's own shortcomings

I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

I wouldn't be surprised at the prospect of a Chinese loss causing the entire communist party there to collapse in a similar fashion to the German Empire. China is almost entirely alone and let's not fool ourselves. Trump is woeing Russia to isolate China. In a similar fashion you have China all alone and a ton of insecure leaders looking to make a name for themselves.

Here's hoping the CIA is supplying arms to the Chinese in the western frontier!
02-18-2017 01:53 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicemen on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2017 02:56 AM by Transsimian.)
02-18-2017 02:20 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 02:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicement on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

Take a look at this post on Quora:
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-war-be...a-play-out

The TL;DR for this is pretty much in line with your post. China could very well attempt to nuke a carrier fleet, but that would be China's only win. Such an attack would make them a parriah state and would end with multiple fronts from different nations attacking them.

It's high time for China to get balkanized anyhow.
02-18-2017 02:34 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-14-2017 08:39 AM)rockoman Wrote:  @jj90

"Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people."

Really?

The whole point of Trump's campaign was that the US government resolutely refuses to do exactly that - in multiple areas.
Fresh off a 7 day ban and giving less fucks then ever. Who got butthurt so bad they had to call in the ban hammer(Roosh)?

Now @rockoman, and that is exactly why Trump got elected. For too long the US govt has not been prioritizing its people. Was it populism? Maybe. I'd venture it's more of a backlash against corporatism.
02-21-2017 02:59 PM
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