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The Trump China Policy Thread
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jj90 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 05:34 PM)Enigma Wrote:  @jj90:

Roughly 300 million in China live on $3.10 or less a day. That's less than $100 a month. Even unemployed people on welfare in the US have a MUCH BETTER standard of living than that. These are basic facts.

Have YOU actually been in "any inner city ghetto"? I've lived in one. We had hot water throughout the house (as required by law), central heating and air, insulated walls, dishwasher, microwave, full-sized stove and oven, a flat screen TV, etc.

That was a place that cost $500/month for a two-bedroom duplex in a Section 8 neighborhood, basically the floor for rental prices in the US. Meanwhile, even many higher-end homes and condos in parts of Asia don't have all of these features, including hot water in the kitchen (which is, again, required by law in the US).

And then you still have to account for the fact that households are much larger in most of Asia compared to the US.

Comparing "poverty" in the US to poverty in China -- and most of the world -- is apples to oranges, and shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

This is why you desperately try to disqualify everyone else from commenting -- your arguments suck.

But continue you with your meltdown.

I really like how you ignore the rest of my counters to your other points. But hey, as you yourself said -- your arguments suck. So it's ok I'll let those slide, you have nothing there or you would have said something. Come again, store's open.

To the point in your post I'm replying to: Cost of living in the rural areas in China are relative to those wages. I don't deny they are poor, but they aren't too bad relative to the cost of living for them.

And yes, indeed I have. I lived in Mattapan the shittest section of Boston. And no, it wasn't all that bad.

And sure, poverty is China != poverty in the US. So let's look at your original reply to my point.

Quote:Foolsgo1d has it right. The biggest threat to the Chinese govt is the Chinese people. China has a history of overthrowing its rulers. The US while a much younger country, has 2. Overthrowing the ruling dynasty is just a footnote in the history of China.
Quote:Does the US have 300+ million people living in extreme poverty?
All of your arguments seem to be based on "the US does stuff too!"

If you are making the argument that yeah it was more likely that China has more unrest because of more people and historically shittier living conditions then sure, but then what does that have to with the US and more concisely, the Trump's administration's policies? Are you being obtuse for the sake of being retarded? Or did I just trigger you?

Please, educate me then.
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 06:16 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 06:00 PM
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Enigma Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 06:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  I really like how you ignore the rest of my counters to your other points.

I ignored them because you ignore basic logic.

Here are some examples

Quote:Funny, you didn't seem to call out other countries in the world who pegged their currencies vs the USD. Hmm, your bias is showing.

Because I didn't bring up every other country that pegs their currencies in a thread about the US and China, I'm biased.

It's a totally nonsensical argument.

Here's another one.

Quote:So let's get to the fundamental argument here: China pegs its currency to the US Dollar and has capital controls. But wait, didn't you yourself say no one gives a fuck what China does with its own currency?

Here's what I actually said.

Enigma Wrote:No one gives a fuck what China does with their own currency -- except when it's done specifically to take advantage of the US in trade.

You deliberately misquote/misrepresent what I said in some lame attempt at catching me in a contradiction, when actually my comment was pretty clear.

Quote:If you are making the argument that yeah it was more likely that China has more unrest because of more people and historically shittier living conditions then sure, but then what does that have to with the US and more concisely, the Trump's administration's policies? Are you being obtuse for the sake of being retarded? Or did I just trigger you?

Please, educate me then.

You're the one who brought up America's two revolutions/civil wars.

You're the one who then compared American ghettos to the living conditions in China.

Now you want me to explain what they have to do with the conversation.

Like I said, enjoy your meltdown.
02-13-2017 06:34 PM
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jj90 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 06:34 PM)Enigma Wrote:  I ignored them because you ignore basic logic.
Where have I heard that before? Everyone who cannot construct a relevant counterpoint. At this point Enigma, you are no better than a SJW who screams "patriarchy" for no reason. Yawn. Try again.
Quote:Because I didn't bring up every other country that pegs their currencies in a thread about the US and China, I'm biased.

It's a totally nonsensical argument.
Right, so we should ignore the Saudi/UAE/etc peg to the US dollar so they can sell oil to the US at an inflated rate? Lack of basic macroeconomics on your point. Where's the outrage there? Yeah, ok wise one in the Philippines. Try a basic economics course.

Enigma Wrote:No one gives a fuck what China does with their own currency -- except when it's done specifically to take advantage of the US in trade.

You deliberately misquote/misrepresent what I said in some lame attempt at catching me in a contradiction, when actually my comment was pretty clear.
I love how you try to make fallacious arguments that I'm misquoting you when you can't counter my point which is: every country manipulates it's currency to get a competitive advantage.

Yup, keep burying your head in the sand. Oh no, the US are saints! LOL. You have 0 understanding of global macroeconomics. A chimpanzee is more knowledgeable on geopolitics than you.
Quote:You're the one who brought up America's two revolutions/civil wars.

You're the one who then compared American ghettos to the living conditions in China.

Now you want me to explain what they have to do with the conversation.

Like I said, enjoy your meltdown.
I brought up China's many revolutions as a comparison to the US as a point to Foolsgo1d's point which I agree with, that the populace of China is what the Chinese govt really fears.

Somehow, that triggered you into saying they have 300M more people in poverty(which proves my point) and bringing up the poverty level of the US and China. WTF?????

Seems like you are having the meltdown? Shall I ship you a tampon via Amazon? Oh wait, you aren't in the US. You are just some dude in the Philippines pontificating on foreign policy that got triggered because someone disagrees with your worldview.

Gents of RVF, Enigma! Alt right SJW! Go cry me a river. Or better yet, go help the fine people of Manila/Davao/Cebu/etc. At least you aren't a useless human being then.

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(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 07:49 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 07:43 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
High quality meltdown.

jj90, can you explain why this issue is so important to you? You seem physically angry that the US might declare China a currency manipulator, or push back against its territorial enchroachments with this island building nonsense.

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02-13-2017 08:28 PM
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jj90 Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 08:28 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  High quality meltdown.

jj90, can you explain why this issue is so important to you? You seem physically angry that the US might declare China a currency manipulator, or push back against its territorial enchroachments with this island building nonsense.

No brother. That's not a meltdown. That's me destroying the weak arguments others are bringing.

A meltdown looks like this: FUCK YOU YOU FASCIST SCUM. I"M GONNA KILL YOU AND YOR WHITE POWR FRIENDZSZ. FUK WHITE PROVILEGE. FHBSDFBDBSDHFBHSDJH. YOU FUCKING HITLER.

All I'm trying to say to these triggered fools, and very few people in this thread is triggered(unlike Enigma), that Trump's administration needs to be very careful on aggressive policies with China. Unlike previous administrations, it has a very real chance of leading to war at the end of it because of the people in Trump's administration. And it is not the people in this thread who will pay with their blood.

Labeling China a currency manipulator won't do shit except make a "we are angry" statement from CCTV. Sending the 7th Fleet into the South China Sea is a different story. Aggressive policies economically(trade sanctions) or militarily need to be reexamined many times or outright discarded if the probability of outright conflict is too high.

I'm confident that if Trump and Xi talk, there will be an amenable conclusion to this all. I cannot say the same if Tillerson for example, has a bad fucking day. Then Mattis gets kung pao chicken instead of chicken chow mein at a meeting and has a bad fucking day, then the God Emperor has to face down WW3 at the end of it all or have a revolt in his administration.

Secondly, I'm also pointing out to these alt right SJW moral crusaders, that while China isn't a shining example of fairness, neither is the US. Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people. But apparently, having a different viewpoint on the US is heresy. I never knew alt right manosphere cucks get butt hurt so easily on a competing viewpoint.
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 11:19 PM by jj90.)
02-13-2017 10:59 PM
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Post: #31
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
@jj90

"Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people."

Really?

The whole point of Trump's campaign was that the US government resolutely refuses to do exactly that - in multiple areas.

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02-14-2017 08:39 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
7 day ban for jj90.

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02-14-2017 08:46 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(01-17-2017 10:45 AM)Arado Wrote:  1) Their One Belt One Road plan to create massive infrastructure in Asia will give them tremendous economic leverage over their neighbors. They also started their own infrastructure development bank, the AIIB. Finally, the RMB is now a reserve currency for the IMF.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/12...r-d04.html


2) China continues to be a massive violator of U.S. intellectual property rights and is making it increasingly difficult for U.S. companies to operate there.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy...-companies


3) China is moving into many industries that we've done well with, from apps, to airplanes, to smartphones. Their big picture objective is to buy up the world's technology and dominate manufacturing for the near future.
https://www.merics.org/en/press-contact/...s-fernost/



4) Despite the media and many on this forum insisting that China is on the verge of collapse, we've heard this same BS for DECADES now and yet China continues to chug along. If they keep investing an ever growing % of their GDP in their military, then eventually it will get to a point where the cost of projecting power into China's backyard will no longer be sustainable for a US that is facing severe demographic pressures in the next decade.

Hey I saw this topic before but I thought Id write some. I preface this that I am not a China scholar or anything but Ive read some books and lived in China for a while.

To start I don't think Trump and China are doing anything different that what Japan and China have been doing for a very long time. For decades now Japan has its leaders go to different shrines and it has some military leaders from WWII there who are war criminals. China gets all riled up, leaders denounce so and so. Japan gets all riled up, Japan says it wont back down from China or do as they say. Its all show. Its shoring up the base. Its the same with second amendment rights, abortion, whatever. Countries, political parties, nationalism, all rely on shoring up the base, getting people to look at the magic act, not on the magicians other hands. For example, Japan is massively invested in China. Japan completely relies on that huge, nearly unbelievable investment in China. They are not going to war over some rocky island somewhere that may or may not have oil (not likely). Leaders need to act tough. Trump yapping about this or that is the same deal. In China every day there is some South China Sea BS about Vietnam, Phillipines, whatever. No one is going to war. Its a complete non-issue.

There is a very good book about this by a Japan scholar who spent years in Japan.

https://www.amazon.com/Jaws-Dragon-Ameri...rica+china

1) The one belt idea is really good in theory but wont work financially. Their high speed rail system is a huge albatross. The nation just spent a very large amount of money, using bonds for some of the investment, to build the first stage or two. Now China wants to double or triple the size. Problem is, the trains are largely empty. I know the idea is to build satellite cities and use the high speed rail, switch over to the subway. Come on. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars on train systems that are empty. Take the train somewhere and get off at one of the non-main stops. New train stations in the middle of nowhere, empty.

Hears the deal. Outside tier one cities in China the whole thing is a paper tiger. Where I lived in NE China there are thousands of 40-80 story buildings that completely empty. In some of the larger cities where I have been, huge 5-6 story malls that must be in the tens of millions of dollars are completely empty. Go on a Tuesday afternoon, maybe see 10-20 customers, total. Someone is paying interest on all these investments. Or, if not, then all the banks in China are insolvent. I think people are not paying interest, they dont have any customers. You can decide which would be better? I used to practice my Chinese at a Mixc Mall in Shenyang, I asked went from shop to shop and asked how many shoes or coats they sold this week, chatting in Chinese with every shopgirl. Sometimes they said 3-4 pairs of shoes, total, that week. Shanghai and Beijing are fine. Wuhan, Shenyang, Tianjin, Chongqing are building enormous malls, office complexes that are empty, bar streets, etc. Then there are all the 3rd and 4th tier cities. China has something like 150 cities with a million people, but most are complete shitholes with big malls and office complexes that are empty and those loans are either being paid for or not. Then on top of that china wants this One Belt thing. Someone added up all the costs and it was in the trillions of dollars. China does not have trillions of dollars to spend on anything, let alone a high speed rail system to Shitholistan then off to Turkey. Plane travel works just fine.

2) The idea that China has an open and free market is bunch of BS. When I watched Leader Xi talking nonsense at Davos I threw up in my mouth a little. My friend in the USA was telling me, China doesn't have import taxes, why should the USA. Good Lord. Buying a pair of Nikes in China is 50-100% more expensive than in the USA. Import taxes.

Honestly Chinese people know that Chinese stuff is largely garbage. Is it getting better, Yes. Is it still really bad quality for high price, yes. Chinese people will continue to want western things for 1)face 2) quality 3) piece of mind it wont explode or poison their children.

3) I will wait for seeing is believing if China can make the leap from garbage to high quality goods. Here's the deal. China needs full employment or the people are going to revolt. If property prices go down and all the people in China lose 20-40% on their main investment, their property, people will revolt. China must have complete working population to keep the property prices high. See the problem?

All the industries on China need constant reinvestment to keep the factories going. That is just to keep adding more factory jobs and keeping people working. Ive read some very convincing articles/books that China can not simply close those factories, top down push demand for higher tech factories to open and build, sell those goods. All the while keeping employment high, creating new jobs, etc. Its very difficult to be running full speed in low quality goods and somehow make the leap, close al those factories, train all those people, get them working at another factory, create new brands etc. Can you think of any Chinese brand in the world? Huawei? Haier? Lining? Nothing they sell is better or cheaper than other brands. Period. So the idea that they will take over the market for decent things doesn't make any sense since they don't have even one example now. At least with S.Korea, Japan, they had Hyundai, Sony, Toshiba. You could see that they made at least one or two things at a high quality so making more wasn't unrealistic. China, the second largest economy, hasn't even created one brand that isn't shit. By the time China can copy something that matters, their wages will be high enough that they cant undercut by price. That's essentially what is happening now. China won on price for decades, now they are getting close to not winning on price but still haven't invented anything worthwhile. Just stealing or coopting other brands that set up factories in China. China must get rich before it gets old, its wages increase too much, people lose faith in the party. I don't see it happening.

https://www.amazon.com/Unfair-Trade-Brok...+china+usa

This book mentions and gives very solid backing for the argument I just made. It has a large China section. Worth checking out, he makes the argument much better than I just did. Again, I'm not a China scholar, I just don't see the proof in the pudding yet. Nothing is good that is made by Chinese. Not even the in the Chinese factories producing, for example, BMW cars in Shenyang. I used to drink often with the Germans who ran those factories and they said the Chinese made absolute shit vehicles compared to the same thing in German. So not only can Chinese not make their own brand, even under German supervision and training they cant put things together at a high quality level.

4) Its China that is facing the severe demographic issues. The one child that will need to support his parents and grandparents. Whats also interesting is that at some point there is going to an economic slowdown in China. I personally believe its already here, but if not, its coming sooner or later. As I mentioned above all the banks in China are loaning out billions of dollars to things that are empty and not getting any return. That, plus a slowdown in growth from no children, plus higher wages, plus no quality innovation will, eventually, hit China.

Its like looking at the housing boom in the USA and everyone said it could continue forever. Sooner or later, people would stop paying their loans. China is in the same boat. With a whole other set of issues to deal with.

So to sum up: I don't think Trump is doing anything different than Japan, Taiwan, whomever. He simply asserting that the USA is not a lapdog anymore. China does this all the time. If anyone wants to deal with China they have a list of BS that must be adhered to a mile long. They can go to hell, honestly. The USA will give their list as well. Its simply being prudent and doesn't foretell WWIII anymore than Japan and China yelling about islands as they massively invest in each others economy. What leaders need to say and what the economy does are separate.


http://www.baldingsworld.com/

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/01/27/...part-ii-a/

http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/01/18/...-in-davos/

Here are two recent topics about China's economic state and the BS Xi was spouting at Davos.

This guy is an economist based in Shenzhen, hes been there a while. If you want to know more about the economic state in China, go through and read this blog for the last few years. He received death threats, harassment, people are angry about his knowledge and assessment of China. Some of the stuff I don't understand because I lack the knowledge, but the stuff I do understand and his commentary don't paint a good picture.

Trump should not bow down to anyone, China most of all. But the idea that not bending over backward is the precursor to WWIII does not compute for me.
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2017 01:14 AM by ball dont lie.)
02-16-2017 01:05 AM
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Transsimian Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Excellent post BallDon'tLie, I'm thinking the same

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02-16-2017 01:17 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
http://en.people.cn/n3/2017/0216/c90000-9178826.html Wrote:Draft maritime law revisions say China may bar foreign ships from passing through its waters
China is to revise its 1984 Maritime Traffic Safety Law, which would allow the relevant authorities to bar some foreign ships from passing through Chinese territorial waters.
The Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council announced Tuesday it is soliciting public opinions on the revisions.
The draft would empower maritime authorities to prevent foreign ships from entering Chinese waters if it is decided that the ships may harm traffic safety and order.
The draft revisions stipulate that authorities will be able to designate specific areas and temporarily bar foreign ships from passing through those areas according to their own assessment of maritime traffic safety.
The revisions are based on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and Chinese laws on the sea, adjacent areas and exclusive economic zones, the office said.
Wang Xiaopeng, a maritime border expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the revisions will provide legal support for China to safeguard its maritime rights.
"As a sovereign State and the biggest coastal State in, for example, the South China Sea, China is entitled to adjust its maritime laws as needed, which will also promote peace and stable development in the waters," Wang said.
Yang Cuibai, a professor with the School of Law at Sichuan University, agreed, saying that "the revisions will strengthen China's management over territorial waters in a new era when the country's communication and trade with foreign countries in the waters have sharply increased."
Yang added that China should take the lead to establish the legal order in the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
Foreign submersibles should travel on the surface, display national flags and report to Chinese maritime management administrations when they pass China's water areas, the draft says. They should also get approval from the relevant administrations to enter China's internal waters and ports.
Foreign military ships that are approved to enter China's waters should apply for pilotage. Foreign ships that enter Chinese waters without approval will be fined 300,000-500,000 yuan ($43,706-72,844) and those violating Chinese laws would be expelled, it said.
"China's waters are open to foreign ships as long as they do not damage the waters' safety, order, or China's sovereignty," Yang said.
The draft also states that people in distress at sea have the right to be rescued without charge, adding that human lives should come before the environment and assets.
The State Council and local governments should set up maritime search and rescue centers, if needed, to organize, coordinate and command rescue operations, the draft says. Civilian groups are also encouraged by the revised regulations to set up rescue teams and participate in such operations.
The revisions will take effect in 2020.

It's interesting that this aggressive new policy statement came out after the Xi-Trump call.

China likes to make big boastful threats to compensate for its weakness, but they also don't want the people to turn against them, so it is strange how they are doubling down and publicising a policy that'll lead to a military defeat.

Could it be that they want to lose a limited war as a way of blaming the coming economic problems on foreign imperialist aggression and not the party's own shortcomings

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(This post was last modified: 02-16-2017 02:48 PM by Transsimian.)
02-16-2017 02:47 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
I wonder if China setting the revisions to take place in 2020 has anything to do with them trying to wait out Trump's presidential term.
02-18-2017 12:24 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-16-2017 02:47 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  It's interesting that this aggressive new policy statement came out after the Xi-Trump call.

China likes to make big boastful threats to compensate for its weakness, but they also don't want the people to turn against them, so it is strange how they are doubling down and publicising a policy that'll lead to a military defeat.

Could it be that they want to lose a limited war as a way of blaming the coming economic problems on foreign imperialist aggression and not the party's own shortcomings

I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

I wouldn't be surprised at the prospect of a Chinese loss causing the entire communist party there to collapse in a similar fashion to the German Empire. China is almost entirely alone and let's not fool ourselves. Trump is woeing Russia to isolate China. In a similar fashion you have China all alone and a ton of insecure leaders looking to make a name for themselves.

Here's hoping the CIA is supplying arms to the Chinese in the western frontier!
02-18-2017 01:53 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicemen on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

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(This post was last modified: 02-18-2017 02:56 AM by Transsimian.)
02-18-2017 02:20 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 02:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicement on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

Take a look at this post on Quora:
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-war-be...a-play-out

The TL;DR for this is pretty much in line with your post. China could very well attempt to nuke a carrier fleet, but that would be China's only win. Such an attack would make them a parriah state and would end with multiple fronts from different nations attacking them.

It's high time for China to get balkanized anyhow.
02-18-2017 02:34 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-14-2017 08:39 AM)rockoman Wrote:  @jj90

"Each country does what it needs to do to protect its people."

Really?

The whole point of Trump's campaign was that the US government resolutely refuses to do exactly that - in multiple areas.
Fresh off a 7 day ban and giving less fucks then ever. Who got butthurt so bad they had to call in the ban hammer(Roosh)?

Now @rockoman, and that is exactly why Trump got elected. For too long the US govt has not been prioritizing its people. Was it populism? Maybe. I'd venture it's more of a backlash against corporatism.
02-21-2017 02:59 PM
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ball dont lie Offline
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Post: #41
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 02:34 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 02:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicement on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

Take a look at this post on Quora:
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-war-be...a-play-out

The TL;DR for this is pretty much in line with your post. China could very well attempt to nuke a carrier fleet, but that would be China's only win. Such an attack would make them a parriah state and would end with multiple fronts from different nations attacking them.

It's high time for China to get balkanized anyhow.

China isn't going to build a nuclear super carrier fleet because those things cost 9 billion dollars a piece and take years to complete. At least with the failed bullet train system there is a chance it could help the economy in some way with future efficiency increases but big metal boats don't do much for China. They are not going to war with Taiwan, Japan or whomever, its all political theater.
03-02-2017 09:18 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/02/28/...-problems/

Quote:The Simplicity of Chinese Economic Problems

Posted on February 28, 2017

Economists and analysts are skilled at complicating what can actually be profoundly simple issues. For all the ink, or zeroes and ones in the digital age, in that has been spilled on what ails the Chinese economy, I personally think it is quite simple: the lack of trade surplus.

I understand that China in 2015 ran a record current account surplus and 2016 is expected to be near but not exceeding the 2015 number but follow me for a minute and I think you will see how everything comes together.

The entire Chinese economy is built upon capital accumulation. Real estate development, industrial upgrading, and airports are all forms of capital accumulation. While this can take the form of both human and physical capital accumulation, in China we accurately think of this more in terms of physical capital. Human capital in China is increasing every year but not at the same growth rate as the 15% growth in bank assets. This skews the growth in capital accumulation towards physical capital accumulation.

We need to note and draw an important distinction about the so called “current account” surplus. In 2012, China changed its current account payment and receipt regulation which has had an enormous impact on the actual flows of currency. Given what we know about the discrepancy between customs reported surplus and bank balances, prior to 2012, there was little difference between these numbers. Post-2012, there are large differences. Using this slightly modified number, from 2004 to 2009, China ran current goods and services surplus equal to an average of 5% of nominal GDP every year. From 2010 to 2016, that number is an average surplus of 0.2% of nominal GDP.

It should come as no surprise, that economic problems started accumulating in 2013 the second year of no cash trade surpluses. Given the time lag, the crunch from the lack of large capital surpluses was almost inevitable.

When China was running large current account surpluses it could easily fund large scale capital accumulation. However, absent large scale cash surpluses that were being paid for, the economic grease in relative quick order simply ground to a halt.

It was in 2009 that the trade surplus dropped from 6.5% to 3.8% and when debt started growing rapidly. By 2012, the adjusted goods and services surplus had turned mildly negative to the tune of 0.3% of nominal GDP. However, rather than restraining credit and investment, China continued to expand credit rapidly. In 2012, bank loans were up 15% and the stock of financing to the real economy was up 19%.

This leads to an important point. The only way for China to push growth and investment in the presence of negative goods and service cash surplus was to borrow intensively.

This is true post 2008 and this is true in 2017. If you do not have the surplus (savings) to pay for the investment then you borrow it. Since the middle later part of last decade, savings has stagnated and gone down slightly. However, fixed asset investment has continued to increase in absolute and relative terms. How do you pay for that? You borrow.

This leads to two undeniable conclusions going forward. First, this explains the crackdown on outflows. If China is not generating significant current account surpluses, in cash terms not just customs accounting, this will continue to push the debt binge even further.

I am personally skeptical the crackdown will matter that much. The crackdown will slow outflows but will generally have no fundamental impact on outflows. Falling ROE and ROI simply do not encourage investors to keep money in China. Furthermore, just the law of large numbers alone would limit China’s ability to run similar surpluses. If China ran the same surplus it ran in 2007, it would have a surplus of nearly $850 billion USD. There are many reasons in 2017 that this is simply not feasible.

Second, debt will most likely continue to rise rapidly for the foreseeable future. The reason is simple in that the Chinese economy is so dependent on investment that should it drop at all, it would have an enormous impact on the economy. In 2016, fixed asset investment was equal to almost 82% of nominal GDP. That is simply an astounding number.

Consequently, if we assume that investment remains high and there is no obvious driver for a rebound in savings that would allow these projects to be funded without borrowing, we absolutely must assume that debt continues to increase. Given that FAI targets have already been announced for most of China that are well in excess of 2016, barring a significant rebound in savings or the current account surplus, neither of which seem likely, we can expect debt as a percentage of GDP to continue to increase significantly. Either investment has to fall, unlikely given growth pressures, or savings has to rise. The most likely scenario is that debt will continue to rise.

At its core, the Chinese economy has depended for more than a decade on capital accumulation. In the face of a declining savings rate and non-existent trade surpluses, with high levels of investment, debt will fund the difference. There is no other way.

I fear at some point, these links will rupture.


The above blog post sums up some things I was saying above in the longer post.

1) The Chinese economy has picked all the low hanging fruit. Roads are built, Airports are in every 5th tier city now even if they only have 10 total flights a day with 1 gate, trains go everywhere, shopping malls are so over-saturated its funny.

At the same time there isn't the insane overall trade surplus that China saw 10-20 years ago. There are many products coming into China so the savings from this surplus isn't enough money to fund huge construction projects anymore.

2) But, at the same time, China is digger that same hole deeper and trying to increase more Fixed asset investment / i.e. big construction projects because the economy has stalled in every other way. They need full employment to a) keep people from revolting and b) to keep up asset prices high from the previous bullshit that they built which can not go lower in prices , because then the real lid would be off this thing and the whole economy would implode. If Chinese people started to stampede out of housing - they cant really get out of what they have now, but simply decided altogether that the price was going down so everyone waited - the whole market would meltdown and all the hundreds of millions of people in underwater apartment loans would put peoples heads on spikes.

If you look at the figure he quoted it seems unbelievable, but I trust the guy 82% of the economy right now in China is building big construction projects that people don't need. All of it is coming from debt either through bonds like the bullet train system or project developers getting great loans mandated top down from the government telling the big 4 banks in China what to do.

At some point the pinch is coming. In big cities shitty apartments sell new for 500k USD. People are making 2 thousand dollars a month. Malls are empty. More new malls are being built. Bullet trains are empty. The bullet train system is going to tripled or quadrupled in size.
03-02-2017 09:33 PM
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JWLZG Offline
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Post: #43
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-18-2017 02:34 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 02:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicement on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

Take a look at this post on Quora:
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-war-be...a-play-out

The TL;DR for this is pretty much in line with your post. China could very well attempt to nuke a carrier fleet, but that would be China's only win. Such an attack would make them a parriah state and would end with multiple fronts from different nations attacking them.

It's high time for China to get balkanized anyhow.

You're basically calling for a repeat of the "Century of Humiliation" that occured from the mid-19th century onwards. Say whatever you like about the Chinese, they do have long memories and won't put themselves in a position where they'll allow themselves to get carved them into Western possessions. Not least by some act of false flag operation or provocation. However much the forum wants a second Boxer Rebellion or Rape of Nanking to occur, they won't just lie down and take it on the chin that easily.
03-02-2017 10:51 PM
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Post: #44
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(03-02-2017 10:51 PM)JWLZG Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 02:34 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 02:20 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  
(02-18-2017 01:53 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if China's government in an effort to save face for terrible domestic issues decides to take on either Ameria or Japan. I'd presume they try and take out a US carrier fleet which would be a terrible blow to America's pysche.

At that point, rest assured a Trump administration would unleash total war on the Chinese which would become a massive loss for them.

The Chinese military has no conventional way of bringing the fight to the USN or Japan. What it can do is devastate Taiwan with thousands of ground-to-ground missiles.

If the USN intervenes, China will be unable to win, and like you said it would likely cause the collapse of the party.

However, I was thinking a bit smaller, I suspect they might want their fake islands in the South Sea blockaded, so that they could parade the faces of any killed Chinese servicement on the media, and blame Western aggression for their pullback from the bases set up to enforce their ludicrous territorial claims.

Take a look at this post on Quora:
https://www.quora.com/How-would-a-war-be...a-play-out

The TL;DR for this is pretty much in line with your post. China could very well attempt to nuke a carrier fleet, but that would be China's only win. Such an attack would make them a parriah state and would end with multiple fronts from different nations attacking them.

It's high time for China to get balkanized anyhow.

You're basically calling for a repeat of the "Century of Humiliation" that occured from the mid-19th century onwards. Say whatever you like about the Chinese, they do have long memories and won't put themselves in a position where they'll allow themselves to get carved them into Western possessions. Not least by some act of false flag operation or provocation. However much the forum wants a second Boxer Rebellion or Rape of Nanking to occur, they won't just lie down and take it on the chin that easily.

Is this really the case? China is mostly a country a peasants. I don't think they really do remember or for that matter care. Only the leaders are concerned with this nutty concept of face which is what is driving their problems now.

Their Chinese downfall was their isolation and subsequent cultural revolution. All of which was caused by incompetant leadership. Their next undoing would be trying to hold to do more of the same as their economic land scape changes.

The situation and regime in China can't last without serious structural reforms which their leaders won't do or aren't aware that they should do.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2017 03:23 AM by The Beast1.)
03-03-2017 03:14 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-...39bc3a8271 Wrote:BEIJING — While his boss was goading China over Twitter, new Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been trying to build a constructive and “results-oriented” relationship with the leadership in Beijing.

And though his warnings about the possibility of eventual military action over North Korea have raised hackles here, Tillerson received a warm welcome from China’s president on Sunday.

“You have made a lot of active efforts to achieve a smooth transition in our relationship under the new era,” President Xi Jinping told Tillerson as the men sat down for talks in the Great Hall of the People. “And I also appreciate your comment that the China-U.S. relationship can only be defined by cooperation and friendship.”

But some critics say Tillerson has bent too far, handing Beijing what Chinese media reports are calling a “diplomatic victory.”

After meeting China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday, Tillerson voiced Chinese catchphrases about the relationship, including the avoidance of conflict and confrontation and the need to build “mutual respect” and strive for “win-win” cooperation.

The phrase “mutual respect” is key: In Beijing, that is taken to mean each side should respect the other’s “core interests.”

In other words: The United States should stay away from issues such as Taiwan, Tibet or Hong Kong — and in principle almost anything China’s Communist Party deems a vital national security concern. Increasingly, that also appears to include China’s territorial claims in the contested waters of the South China Sea.

Several Chinese foreign policy experts called the comments “very positive” and in line with a concept Beijing has long advocated — what it calls “a new model of great power relationships,” which would put the two nations on a roughly equal footing.

Jin Canrong, a Sino-U.S. relations expert at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said Tillerson’s comments came as a surprise.

“China has long been advocating this, but the United States has been reluctant to accept the point of ‘mutual respect,’ ” Jin said. “Tillerson’s comment will be very warmly welcomed by China.”

But Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the United States should use its own language to describe bilateral relations, not embrace China’s.

More importantly, “mutual respect” signals acceptance of “a litany of issues that China views as non-negotiable,” she said. “By agreeing to this, the U.S. is in effect saying that it accepts that China has no room to compromise on these issues.”

That would be a mistake, said Glaser, adding that China has shown no inclination to accept what might be seen as American “core interests,” such as its alliances in Asia.

On the campaign trail last year, candidate Donald Trump pilloried China as a security threat and, particularly, a stealer of American jobs. On Friday, as Tillerson prepared to make his way to Beijing on the third leg of his Asian tour, Trump took to Twitter to criticize China for not helping rein in North Korea’s nuclear program.

Tillerson has almost certainly been pushing China hard on the North Korean issue behind closed doors. But in public, his tone has been much more measured, judging this to be a better way to save China’s face and gain its cooperation.

He could have received assurances from China — for example, over North Korea or trade — that he felt merited giving ground in return. Or perhaps the former ExxonMobil boss is simply not that worried about parsing diplomatic language and is more focused on results.

“Tillerson’s remarks were probably an effort to provide Xi face in public, while behind doors, the conversation was probably more direct,” said Walter Lohman, director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation. “At least I hope so. Because, assuming Xi paraphrased Tillerson accurately, it is certainly not true that ‘the China-U.S. relationship can only be defined by cooperation and friendship.’ ”

Nevertheless, Tillerson appears to have given ground to Beijing in a way that the Obama administration had studiously avoided doing.

Ely Ratner, who worked as deputy national security adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, took to Twitter to call it a “big mistake and missed opportunity” by Tillerson for parroting Chinese government “platitudes and propaganda.”

“China’s characterization of the U.S.-China relationship, as exemplified by those phrases, portends U.S. decline and accommodation,” he wrote in an email. “Tillerson using these phrases buys into this dangerous narrative, which will only encourage Chinese assertiveness and raise doubts in the region about the future of U.S. commitment and leadership in Asia.”

As for Trump, he had shown so little regard for Beijing’s sensitivities that he even questioned whether the United States should continue to uphold the one-China policy, which rules out independence and diplomatic recognition for Taiwan.

That had spooked and angered Beijing until Trump backed down during what has been described as a warm and cordial telephone conversation with Xi last month.

On Sunday, China’s president said that, after talking, both leaders “believe that we can make sure the relationship will move ahead in a constructive fashion in the new era.”

Both sides are talking about a face-to-face meeting between the leaders. China realizes that a personal rapport with Trump is important and watched in consternation as Japan’s President Shinzo Abe made an early visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

Tillerson seemed to acknowledge that getting his president better acquainted with China would make his job easier.

The “very lengthy” phone call between the leaders not only improved China’s understanding of the United States but also President Trump’s understanding of China, Tillerson said. “And he looks forward to enhancing that understanding in the opportunity for a visit in the future.”

“We know that through further dialogue, we will achieve a greater understanding that will lead to a strengthening of the ties between China and the United States and set the tone for our future relationship of cooperation,” he said.

Tillerson and Xi nodded as the other spoke, both flanked by officials and aides in the lavishly decorated Fujian Room in the Great Hall of the People, on the west side of Beijing’sTiananmen Square, before the media was ushered out for Tillerson’s last meeting of his three-nation Asian tour.

Even more than trade ties, North Korea has emerged as the biggest thorn in the relationship between Washington and Beijing. The United States wants firmer action to isolate Pyongyang and persuade the regime to abandon its nuclear program.

Tillerson says diplomatic efforts have failed and has not ruled out eventual military action. China, though, opposes anything that could bring down the regime in Pyongyang and bring instability to its borders.

It insists that dialogue is the only way forward, and Wang, the foreign minister, told Tillerson on Saturday that the United States should remain “coolheaded.”

Yet North Korea upped the ante even further Sunday by announcing it had carried out a rocket engine test “of historic significance.”

I'm not sure what to make of this. China's grip on Tibet is too strong for it to be an issue, Taiwan is a conditional situation where lipservice doesn't cost anything.

The South Sea islands however are an active issue and the problem of Chinese expansionism cannot be left to fester for another administration to deal with.

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03-19-2017 03:24 PM
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Enigma Offline
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(02-13-2017 02:29 PM)Enigma Wrote:  First of all, I specifically said that both Trump and China don't want war to happen. My prediction is that Trump will be firm but provide China enough opportunity to save face that they won't be willing to commit suicide by trying to take on the entire region in an open military conflict.

As I predicted.

The Trump admin is just giving China the opportunity to back down without losing face. Now even when they concede certain positions it looks like it's being done from a position of strength and graciousness.

Neither country wants a war, China was just caught so far out of position when Trump was elected that they needed an out.
03-19-2017 05:54 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Perhaps China will trade away North Korea for the South Sea fortress they are building.

China: "Okay, we'll stop defending North Korea, but we get to keep our fortress."

Trump: "Deal!"

I could see something like this.

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03-19-2017 08:56 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
China wants a mutually benefical financial deal with the USA, even if that means to finance for a short or medium term the soft landing of the dollar in the financial markets. Is that too much to ask? I don't think so. Trump is a business broker and China is a 5000 years civilization, both are going to find a way.

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03-20-2017 12:22 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Any predictions for the Trump-Xi meeting this week?

As a taste of what is coming up, just some recent tweets from Trump:


Trump has also said that the U.S. will act alone of North Korea if China does not help:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017...orea-china
Quote:Donald Trump has issued China with an ultimatum that if it fails to put pressure on North Korea to disable its nuclear programme, then the US is prepared to take action against Pyongyang on its own.

“Well, if China is not going to solve North Korea, we will,” the president said in an interview with the Financial Times that has alarmed experts on the region.

Asked how he would tackle North Korea, Trump said: “I’m not going to tell you. You know, I am not the United States of the past where we tell you where we are going to hit in the Middle East.”

Trump will host the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, on Thursday and Friday at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, where the two leaders are expected to discuss North Korea, China’s ambitions in the South China Sea and trade. There is speculation that North Korea could conduct another nuclear missile test to coincide with the talks.

Trump said he had “great respect” for Xi and “great respect for China”, adding: “I would not be at all surprised if we did something that would be very dramatic and good for both countries and I hope so.”

On North Korea, he said: “China has great influence over North Korea. And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”

Asked what might motivate China to help, Trump said: “I think trade is the incentive. It is all about trade.”

China continues to militarize its artificial islands in the South China Sea
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/asia/s...t-hangars/
Quote:Dozens of aircraft hangars and high-end radar capabilities on China's man-made islands in the South China Sea are almost operational, according to new satellite imagery released by a US-based think tank.

The new facilities will further establish China's military dominance over the highly contested region, experts told CNN, and could help China establish a controversial Air Defense Identification Zone in the area.
Images released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, AMTI, taken in early March, show nearly completed defense infrastructure on three of China's largest artificial islands in the disputed Spratly chain: Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi reefs.
04-04-2017 05:46 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Fk China and the aggression in the South China sea. I'd almost prefer we don't let them militarize that then have them help with North Korea. It's almost the principle, they've consistently done this over the past 50 years. Just go out and claim things and expect the world to abide (e.g., Tibet, Taiwan, etc.). This cannot continue.

We don't need them to contain North Korea, but Trump shouldn't concede the South China sea.
04-04-2017 04:50 PM
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