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The Trump China Policy Thread
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911 Offline
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Post: #476
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Incarceration populations and rates. From World Prison Brief.[1]

Country Incarceration Rate per 100,000 Prison Population %unsentenced

1- United States 655 2,121,600 21.6 Notes
2- El Salvador 604 38,714 29.5
3- Turkmenistan 552 30,452 14
4- U.S. Virgin Islands (United States) 542 577 36.4
5- Thailand 526 364,288 18.2
6- Cuba 510 57,337
7- Maldives 499 1,852
8- Northern Mariana Islands (United States) 482 270
9- British Virgin Islands (United Kingdom) 470 134 37
10- Rwanda 464 61,000 6.8
Bahamas 438 1,746 42
Seychelles 437 423 16.8
Grenada 435 465 15.2
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 426 469 24.3
Guam (United States) 404 667 45.1
Palau 395 87 4.1
Cayman Islands (United Kingdom) 393 253 29.6
Saint Kitts and Nevis 393 220 30.5
Panama 390 16,183 53
Costa Rica 374 19,226 13.3
Anguilla (United Kingdom) 367 55 45.5
Belarus 364 34,600 18.2
Belize 356 1,297 30.1
American Samoa (United States) 345 193 14.9
Brazil 324 690,722 35.4
Antigua and Barbuda 321 305 37
Uruguay 321 11,078 69.7
Bermuda (United Kingdom) 319 209 9.6
Russia 316 467,000 17.5
Puerto Rico (United States) 313 10,475 13
Barbados 300 874 48.9
Cape Verde 298 1,542 23.3
Namibia 295 7,400 c. 54
Dominica 289 211 23.7
Turkey 288 232,886 43.1
Iran 284 230,000 25.1
Guyana 283 2,200 35.6
Swaziland 282 3,610 18.1
South Africa 280 158,111 25.8
Saint Lucia 280 527 53.5
Nicaragua 276 17,196 21.4
Peru 270 87,995 39.8
Trinidad and Tobago 270 3,667 60.9
Georgia 268 9,990 17.1
Taiwan 265 62,634 5.2
French Guiana (France) 249 726 25.9
Greenland (Denmark) 249 139 32.5
Colombia 240 118,708 33.7
Dominican Republic 238 26,286 60.3
Curaçao (Netherlands) 236 377 41
Israel 236 19,325 25.2
Azerbaijan 235 23,320 20.6
Lithuania 235 6,544 8.8
Bahrain 234 3,485 25.7
Chile 233 42,683 33.3
Morocco 232 82,512 40.2
Cook Islands (New Zealand) 229 48 14.6
Ecuador 222 37,497 34.9
Guadeloupe (France) 216 970 26.9
Honduras 216 18,950 53.1
New Zealand 214 10,435 30.6
Moldova 212 7,510 16.8
Martinique (France) 211 814 27.3
Fiji 210 1,889 25.9
Botswana 208 4,343 24.5
Macau (China) 208 1,371 18.6
Czech Republic 205 21,806 7.6
Samoa 204 400 14
Singapore 201 11,691 11.5
French Polynesia (France) 199 569 14.4
Paraguay 199 13,607 77.9
Jordan 197 15,700 44.4
Saudi Arabia 197 61,000 58.7
Estonia 195 2,575 19.8
Latvia 195 3,765 27.9
Mauritius 194 2,499 41
Poland 194 73,524 10.1
New Caledonia (France) 193 543 14.2
Gabon 191 3,373 66.7
Slovakia 191 10,415 15.6
Albania 188 5,407 40.6
Argentina 186 81,975 47.7
Kazakhstan 186 33,989 17
Suriname 183 1,000 50
Tunisia 181 20,755 52
Montenegro 180 1,123 28.4
Philippines 179 188,278 75.1
Venezuela 178 57,096 63
Malaysia 177 55,413 29.8
Cambodia 176 28,414 70.6
Hungary 173 16,947 18.2
Australia 172 42,942 31.3 Notes
Kyrgyzstan 171 10,574 18.4
Tonga 166 176 7.4
Aruba (Netherlands) 165 170 16.6
Gibraltar (United Kingdom) 165 56 26.8
Guernsey (United Kingdom) 165 109 16.5
Mexico 164 204,422 39.4
Kuwait 157 6,000 10
Ukraine 157 56,246 34.2
Bolivia 156 17,946 69.9
Serbia 154 10,807 16.2
Sint Maarten 153 62 18.1
Uzbekistan 150 43,900 10
Algeria 146 60,000 8.6
Zambia 146 25,000 28
Bhutan 145 1,119
Myanmar 145 79,668 10.8
Scotland (United Kingdom) 143 7,771 19.5 Notes
Guatemala 141 24,386 51.8
North Macedonia 141 2,931 8.5
Nauru 140 14 25
United Kingdom. England & Wales 140 83,014 11.2 Notes
Jamaica 138 3,866 23.1
Vietnam 137 130,002 12.5
Brunei 134 565 7.1
Malta 133 588 26.5
Réunion (France) 130 1,148 14
Uganda 129 54,059 51.6
Ethiopia 127 113,727 14.9
F.S. Micronesia 127 132 16.7
Portugal 127 13,065 16.3
Iraq 126 45,000 35.2
Lebanon 126 6,330 64.7
Spain 126 59,087 15
Bulgaria 125 9,028 21.1
Isle of Man (United Kingdom) 125 106 6.6
Jersey (United Kingdom) 122 130 26.4
Cameroon 121 29,341 56
Tajikistan 121 9,317 15
Zimbabwe 120 19,521 17.1
Armenia 119 3,536 37.1
Laos 119 8,201 1
130 - China 118 1,649,804

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co...ation_rate


China has less than 5 times the incarceration rate of the US.

The question here is, would you rather work 15 hours a day making Walmart trinkets in a Chinese labor camp, or get repeatedly butt-raped in a US jail by your HIV+, Hepathatis A through Z-carrying gangbanger bunkmate?

Also, the "message in a bottle" letter shown at 0:40 has curiously solid English cursive penmanship. That doesn't look like a letter written by a Mainlander, it looks like something penned by a graduate from a decent western college. I smell a psyop.

λ ό γ ο ς
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2019 10:03 PM by 911.)
06-10-2019 09:59 PM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #477
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Eh, Chinese people have good handwriting in general. Otherwise the characters they write in their own language would be illegible.

Also, you trust Chinese figures for incarceration?
06-11-2019 12:50 AM
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911 Offline
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Post: #478
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Chinese nationals have a very distinctive handwriting style when transcribing English. I was a
reader in a west coast STEM grad school program and graded literally thousands of problem sets. You can practically read the accents or lack thereof. This labor camp letter job looks almost as bad as Obama's Hawaiian birth certificate.

There is probably a fudge factor in the Chinese prison population, but it ain't anywhere near 500%, which you would need here for China to match the US incarceration rate. Of course the commies killed off over a tenth of their population under Mao, but that was before you and I were born. (And yes, Mao was a Skull and Bones/Rothschild-Rockefeller product hoisted on the Chinese people, I will prove this.)

I don't want to be an apologist for China, but I absolutely hate being deceived by our deep state apparatus.

λ ό γ ο ς
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2019 01:10 AM by 911.)
06-11-2019 01:09 AM
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Post: #479
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
If China routinely fudges their GDP numbers, then it stands to reason they're fudging every other number .

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06-11-2019 01:48 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
The way China brutalizes its political and religious dissenters is well-documented and you're self-deluded if you think it's all a psyop. The real psyop is in how the globalists collaborated with the Chinese oligarchs during the opening of Chinese markets from 1980-2010 to the detriment of the rest of the world, and how they hope to continue profiting after the CCP collapses. This involves criticism of China to some extent, but not in the way you're imaging.

There's not been much talk here lately of what's going on between the US and China, even though much has happened.

Beijing's decision to backtrack on trade talks suggests that Xi Jinping isn't secure enough in his political power to go through with a deal. If he makes too great a concession, internal opposition is sure to eat him alive for signing an "unequal treaty" with the U.S. imperialists.

Notably, a few days before Trump said that Beijing had reneged on negotiations, Hong Kong media reported the appearances of retired CCP leaders Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong. Retired Party officials aren't allowed to randomly show their faces, much less go on high-profile "official tours," as Zeng did, and the fact that neither Jiang nor Zeng are Xi's friends makes it unlikely that their cameos were centrally approved.

Jiang and Zeng are the guys who basically ran China from 1997 to 2012, so most of the corrupt officials Xi took out between 2012 and 2017 were their appointments. There's a strong taboo in post-Mao China against taking down really important politicians, incumbent or otherwise, so that's probably why Xi hasn't gotten Jiang and Zeng yet. As a result, these two still have lots of political influence due to the massive financial cliques and guanxi networks they set up when they were still in control of Zhongnanhai. Their showing up in late April (22 for Zeng and 26 for Jiang) was likely a nod to CCP functionaries who have beef with Xi for the anti-corruption campaign, as well as a signal to warn Xi that he'd better not do anything too drastic or else his authority might suffer.

Another indicator that Xi is being threatened is that one of his own allies got targeted by the anti-corruption system. Liu Shiyu is the former securities regulator who stabilized the financial system after the stock market crash in 2015. This May, he turned himself into the authorities for some relatively minor economic crime. It's likely that Xi's enemies threw dirt on him and pressured Liu into giving himself up; at the same time, the discipline inspection commission's notice called Liu "comrade" and said that he was "cooperating with investigation" rather than "being investigated" so this likely shows that whoever is using him as a method of warning Xi doesn't have the gall to attack him to severely (i.e. there is risk of repercussion).

To make matters worse, the mainland Chinese government is trying to force Hong Kong to accept an outrageous extradition law according to which anyone in HK can be sent to China if the CCP thinks they're a criminal. This caused 1.03 million people to protest. The background of this (and a bunch of other chaotic stuff that happens in Hong Kong) is also related to factional struggle in the CCP: the Hong Kong and Macao Liaison office of the CCP is (or was, I haven't followed the situation in HK lately) heavily influenced by people related to the Jiang Zemin faction, chiefly the cronies of Zhang Dejiang. From time to time they stir up trouble in HK, causing a political and diplomatic mess for Xi that is cloaked in typical communist Chinese talking points about anti-separatism and whatnot.

The result of this internal pressure is that in order to cover his flanks from the factional opposition, Xi resorts to Maoist rhetoric to show that he is still loyal to the Party, that he's not about to stab China in the back, and so on. If Xi were more confident in his position, there'd probably be a deal by now; if the anti-Xi forces in the Party successful remove or sideline him, there'd probably also end up being some kind of concession, albeit after a messy period of economic disaster/political collapse makes it impossible for anyone to keep up with the charade.

>>> a tangent to this: due to the swine fever and now crop destruction by armyworms, China's food security is in peril. There are other major weaknesses in the Chinese economy (airbrushed by fake figures, disinformative interpretations, and so on) that contribute to the sense of imminent crisis.

Which leads me to my next point: if you look at the mainstream media, all of the focus is on how bad things have become under Xi Jinping: Uyghurs in concentration camps, retrograde Maoism, failed trade negotiations, falling economic figures, etc. It's all true, but the focus is intentionally wrong. Xi didn't cause these problems, the CCP system did when the Jiang faction/corrupt officials/princelings' preferred method of getting rich through graft ran up against a) Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign and b) real economic and social problems caused by the CCP's authoritarianism and lawlessness.

The amount of capital outflows from China to the West, particularly America, over the last 15-20 years runs in the hundreds of billions every year. The Chinese oligarchs, like the Russian oligarchs, are all deeply intertwined with Western globalists who love their money. Not surprisingly, the MSM covers for them by attacking the "dictator" Xi Jinping as hard as they can. I think the last time I wrote about this particular issue here was in early 2017. Everything has continued to progress. Globalist money wants Xi to fail so that China will revert to full oligarch rule and so that when the CCP finally collapses under its own weight, Chinese sovereignty will be easy to erode under the watch of these traitors. Plus, it will make Trump look like a fool if he causes China to implode without any gain for the US.

>>> historically related to this is the collapse of the Soviet Union, which was possibly engineered by a soft conspiracy of the KGB apparatus and mid-level officials in Russia, who later became oligarchs after people like Yeltsin and the hardliners threw Gorbachev under the bus. Russia lost a quarter of its land, half its population, and suffered severe economic crisis for over 10 years. Putin has not been able to fully remedy these problems. In China now, the mid-level officials are the same unscrupulous figures as the Soviet ones, and the intelligence apparatus is still in the hands of Jiang's man Zeng Qinghong. Xi does not want to end up like Gorbachev or let China be ravaged like Russia for the benefit of oligarchs, which is a large part of why he deploys hardline rhetoric.

The next thing to watch is the G20 summit in Osaka. When he was in Russia, Xi Jinping used the word "friend" for the first time to refer to Trump and said it would be "hard to imagine" a complete breakdown of relations with the US. So the door is still open for a deal. In the meantime, Xi may have to take some more drastic moves to quell factional enemies to pre-empt their attempts at undermining him. Developments will probably happen very quickly.

EDIT: Trump is still pressuring China hard, and is broadening the trade war to include issues like finance, human rights, and tech. This may have been rhetoric for past administrations, but Trump isn't afraid to freeze CCP members' assets and prevent them from entering the US. This has the effect of catalyzing factional struggle in the CCP since it ratchets up the stakes for individual Chinese leaders. As noted above, the question remains as to who will prevail in this struggle. My guess is it will probably boil down to who first decides to break the post-Mao political taboos.

While I'm on the subject, North Korea is acting up again since the talks failed in February. This is not surprising given that North Korea is a sideshow related to the US-China talks, which were far from concluded at that point. Kim Jong-un is most likely waiting to see how the Beijing-Washington drama plays out before he makes a decision on whether to go for denuclearization or revert to the age-old rocket diplomacy that Kim Jong-il invented. Trump is so far not calling Kim out on his antics, which is a good choice for the time being.
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2019 03:11 PM by Lunostrelki.)
06-11-2019 02:49 PM
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The Beast1 Offline
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Post: #481
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(06-11-2019 01:48 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  If China routinely fudges their GDP numbers, then it stands to reason they're fudging every other number .

I'd also like to add that this includes such beloved forum topics such as IQ and education as well.

Popcorn3

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06-11-2019 06:45 PM
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Arado Offline
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Post: #482
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(06-09-2019 06:08 AM)KnjazMihailo Wrote:  

Thanks for your reply. I actually agree with you in the sense that many of these apparently aggressive moves (Tibet, Taiwan, Dzungar, etc) when studied in detail, can make the Chinese perspective seem more legitimate. There are two sides to every conflict and Western powers are far from innocent during their colonial period, often acting contrary to their "values". We can discuss these in greater detail if they come up in the news, especially since the South China Sea or Taiwan conflicts could start a war.

My point in bringing these examples up was just to show that China has made and is making major moves outside traditional Han territory, moves that to a third party non-Chinese perspective would appear aggressive. Therefore, there is a low likelihood that a pax Sinica should make other countries totally relax and feel that their interests will never be threatened. We can’t say as an absolute certainty that China won’t at least mimic the US and previous superpowers by taking some aggressive actions abroad when it has the means to do so.

I’m not brainwashed by human rights rhetoric nor pro-America propaganda. Nor do I have some anti-China agenda - I’ve spent a lot of time there and have much respect for ancient Chinese culture and the way they’ve been able to go from extreme poverty to relative wealth in a couple generations. It’s pretty amazing.

That said, during my time there I have spoken with locals and experienced the xenophobia firsthand as well as the questionable morality of such a dog eat dog society that the system encouraged. With an understanding of human nature and studying repeating patterns of human history, I’m just far more cautious about welcoming the downfall of the current world order and expecting the next one to be some benevolent Confucian utopia. Human nature at its base is exploitative, and power corrupts.

Quote:
Arado Wrote:It IS our business because if the Chinese are willing to mistreat each other, imagine what they will do to non-Chinese (especially dark skinned people that they look down upon).

LOL. I’m not black/dark skinned. Why should I care about how the Chinese will treat them? Are you dark skinned? Could that be a reason why you're so biased against China?

Your response if anything makes me more nervous. The majority of the world's population happens to be neither white nor Oriental.

Quote:What's important is that this point implies the Chinese are coming to colonize the USA and Europe, take land from white people and annihilate them. This is ridiculous. Ever since implementing the One Child Policy, China doesn't have the demographic ability to colonize much of anything…

Population decline can be reversed with enough propaganda and subsidies, especially if there is the prospect of fertile lands ready to be settled by Chinese colonists. I actually think white people will be ok - I think Southeast Asians, Africans, and Latin Americans should be more nervous about future domination from China pursuing living space.

------------------------------

Quote:China is certainly not perfect. The catch is that all this anti-China nonsense is just a bunch of propaganda hoaxes and distortion of facts.
….
Of course, it's possible that China does become the next leading power in the world as the USA falls, but that's on the USA, not China. The USA is in decline and collapsing in on itself because of its own internal problems, not because of China, Russia or whoever the US media blames.

It’s not propaganda or hysteria - if anything, the media has given China decades of a free ride while they bid their time and grew their strength. Even now, most people on the forum and most Americans in general DO NOT care about China nor do they pay attention to the policy issues. You could say that it’s because China isn’t a threat, but either way there is no anti-China propaganda going on for the masses, it’s mainly policy wonks that are paying attention.

If anything, warnings about China could wake us up to the need to get our debt/entitlements under control, reduce affirmative action/SJW agitation, and improve our scientific/innovation/business climate. Unfortunately, people just don't care.

Russia gets 10X the attention that China does among liberals and mainstream media even though it doesn't come close to China in threatening US interests. I’m concerned that the uptick in concern about China is too little too late.

You suggest the U.S. should pursue a REALIST foreign policy. The main proponent of realism nowadays is John Mearsheimer and he has always argued that because of human nature and how countries have always behaved throughout history, we should be extremely concerned about the disruption that China’s rise will bring to the international system. This guy is not a neocon or some liberal crusader and he cares little for human rights - he is concerned about hard survival and power politics and has actually been very critical of Israeli influence in the US and he advocates respecting Russia’s sphere of influence.

Quote:Continuing this discussion would be pointless since you’re still stuck believing the false premise that the USA is a power which even cares about morality, legality and ethics in any way, shape or form at all. Since the burden of proof is always on the accuser, it remains to be proven how China intends to dominate the world and begin doing mass genocide or whatever other nonsense is claimed.

Obviously you are well versed on China even if we disagree on many points, but it’s good to air them out and others can decide on their own. Like I said, history is a lesson in nonstop brutality. This is all speculation about what China will be like, but human nature is far from benevolent - if anything the burden of proof is on those that say China will be different from all the other potential superpowers throughout history.
06-11-2019 09:51 PM
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911 Offline
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Post: #483
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
We're not going to get into a unipolar Chinese global domination in our lifetime, it will be a multipolar world, which will most likely be a better outcome than the unipolar neocon American domination we've had the last two decades, even for Americans themselves.

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06-11-2019 11:05 PM
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Post: #484
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
More analysis on Hong Kong, since it's ongoing.

The current protests are the biggest since HK was handed over to the PRC, over twice the number of people who came out in 2003 to oppose Article 23. Back then, the proposed law would have mandated that the Hong Kong legal system try suspects for breaking mainland laws; things are worse this time since the law would force Hong Kong to turn over anyone Beijing suspects of crimes directly to the PRC.

This has all kinds of immediate consequences, the biggest one being the potential to basically destroy Hong Kong as we know it. If HK became functionally equivalent to mainland territory, the US and other countries would treat it that way and its economic advantages would disappear. This would suck for everyone in HK, which is why there are now 3x more people on the streets than in 2014, when the CCP openly subverted HK's semi-democratic system. Incidentally, to highlight the gravity of the issue, a Chinese term widely used by the protesters to mean "China extradition" (送中) sounds the same as "condemning someone to death" (送终).

That being said, wrecking Hong Kong as a business hub is also terrible for the mainland PRC economy due to the key role HK plays as an interface between the PRC and the rest of the world.

Therefore, as I said earlier, Xi Jinping's far-left ideological turn, while necessary to consolidate power over the "collective leadership" in 2012-2017, is coming back to bite him at a time when China can really not afford more economic crises.

But as long as Xi is head of the CCP, he can't back down on his neo-Maoist ideological vision, even though it's sabotaged his concrete attempts to implement economic and legal reforms, negotiate with the Americans, and now is causing him more trouble in Hong Kong with the extradition law. The situation is similar to the Japanese military junta's collective insanity in 1940-41, when they decided to attack Pearl Harbor despite their best admiral and quite a few others knowing it was a suicidal move.

China won't literally go to war, since it doesn't have the requisite martial spirit ( Japan had won several wars prior to Pearl Harbor and the whole country was geared towards warfare, unlike today's Chinese soyboys who are stuck in school cramming for tests from 5 am to 9pm). Instead, the further the Party buries its head in the sand of Maoism, the worse China's issues like unemployment, food security, businesses going bankrupt, and heavy-handed political suppression are going to get.

In the likely event that the HK government passes the extradition bill, the PRC will just find itself in an even deeper hole. When crisis becomes truly intolerable, senior CCP cadres may find Xi Jinping a good scapegoat to pin all the blame on. The CCP is organizationally and ideologically geared for self-preservation. When push comes to shove, the CCP is perfectly capable of purging its top leaders, whether they are deemed by the officialdom as being too liberal (general secretaries Zhao Ziyang and Hu Yaobang) or too conservative (Hua Guofeng). Even Chairman Mao was almost toppled a couple times, the difference back then being that he had the prestige of being the "founding emperor" (“毛太祖”) and could launch powerful political campaigns without regard to practical consequences because China was closed off to the rest of the world).

The craftiest people in the CCP system are the ones who can use Party ideology when it benefits them (like the anti-Xi officials who are sticking it to him in Hong Kong), but also call for "return to normalcy" (拨乱反正, the excuse Deng Xiaoping used to get rid of Mao's chosen successor Hua Guofeng) at the right time.

A possible preview to this "scapegoat" narrative popped up last December. Duowei, a supposedly independent Chinese media outlet, but which is actually controlled by anti-Xi officials, ran an editorial called "Xi Jinping Needs to Take Responsibility for the Extreme Leftism That Is Tearing China Apart" (极左撕裂中国,习近平应负责任).

Looking at historical precedents, once the immediate existential crisis (in current events, the trade war and economic crises) has passed, the CCP will allow a period of normalcy, fooling both foreigners and its own people into thinking that things have gotten better before building up to a new extreme.

I said before that Trump was wise to draw a distinction between Xi Jinping and the Communist Party, and noted in my last post that Xi called Trump a "friend." Xi is not stupid and likely sees the writing on the wall. Reciprocating rapport with the President suggests that Xi is need of allies.
(This post was last modified: 06-12-2019 01:53 PM by Lunostrelki.)
06-12-2019 01:40 PM
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Post: #485
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
What do you guys see as the end game for the current protests in HK? Xi can't afford to be seen internally as backing down but also can't afford a Tiananmen or worse in the world's #3 financial center--this isn't 1989, when mainland China was still pretty much a backwater, anymore. And they certainly can't afford any situation where the PLA intervenes and the HK cops oppose them (although I wouldn't be surprised if the "riot cops" on the news right now are actually PLA troops in HK police uniforms).

I wonder if Beijing will throw Carrie Lam under the bus and force her to resign under the fiction that she overstepped her authority. Xi can manage the press in the mainland to paint this as a win and while the people of HK will see right through it it will take the edge off enough to get the protestors to return home. Beijing can kick the can down the road and revisit the issue in a decade or so after they've had more time to slowly break the will of HK citizens through gradually expanding their control over the media and education system.

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06-13-2019 10:22 AM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
So, in Hong Kong they are considering bringing in new extradition laws, which can be abused by a foreign power using trumped up charges.

I guess Julian Assange must be thanking his lucky stars that he didn't move there.

“The world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it.”

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06-14-2019 05:55 PM
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RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(06-14-2019 05:55 PM)rockoman Wrote:  So, in Hong Kong they are considering bringing in new extradition laws, which can be abused by a foreign power using trumped up charges.

I guess Julian Assange must be thanking his lucky stars that he didn't move there.

LOL.

Is this a troll?

"And guess what, you might have a feeling that youre destined for something else, and that any day now it will dawn on you, but it will remain that, just a feeling that you use as a crutch to never focus on anything", Beirut.
06-14-2019 09:52 PM
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KnjazMihailo Offline
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Post: #488
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
(06-11-2019 09:51 PM)Arado Wrote:  Thanks for your reply. I actually agree with you in the sense that many of these apparently aggressive moves (Tibet, Taiwan, Dzungar, etc) when studied in detail, can make the Chinese perspective seem more legitimate. There are two sides to every conflict and Western powers are far from innocent during their colonial period, often acting contrary to their "values". We can discuss these in greater detail if they come up in the news, especially since the South China Sea or Taiwan conflicts could start a war.

My point in bringing these examples up was just to show that China has made and is making major moves outside traditional Han territory, moves that to a third party non-Chinese perspective would appear aggressive. Therefore, there is a low likelihood that a pax Sinica should make other countries totally relax and feel that their interests will never be threatened. We can’t say as an absolute certainty that China won’t at least mimic the US and previous superpowers by taking some aggressive actions abroad when it has the means to do so.

I’m not brainwashed by human rights rhetoric nor pro-America propaganda. Nor do I have some anti-China agenda - I’ve spent a lot of time there and have much respect for ancient Chinese culture and the way they’ve been able to go from extreme poverty to relative wealth in a couple generations. It’s pretty amazing.

That said, during my time there I have spoken with locals and experienced the xenophobia firsthand as well as the questionable morality of such a dog eat dog society that the system encouraged. With an understanding of human nature and studying repeating patterns of human history, I’m just far more cautious about welcoming the downfall of the current world order and expecting the next one to be some benevolent Confucian utopia. Human nature at its base is exploitative, and power corrupts.

Quote:LOL. I’m not black/dark skinned. Why should I care about how the Chinese will treat them? Are you dark skinned? Could that be a reason why you're so biased against China?

Your response if anything makes me more nervous. The majority of the world's population happens to be neither white nor Oriental.

Population decline can be reversed with enough propaganda and subsidies, especially if there is the prospect of fertile lands ready to be settled by Chinese colonists. I actually think white people will be ok - I think Southeast Asians, Africans, and Latin Americans should be more nervous about future domination from China pursuing living space.

------------------------------

It’s not propaganda or hysteria - if anything, the media has given China decades of a free ride while they bid their time and grew their strength. Even now, most people on the forum and most Americans in general DO NOT care about China nor do they pay attention to the policy issues. You could say that it’s because China isn’t a threat, but either way there is no anti-China propaganda going on for the masses, it’s mainly policy wonks that are paying attention.

If anything, warnings about China could wake us up to the need to get our debt/entitlements under control, reduce affirmative action/SJW agitation, and improve our scientific/innovation/business climate. Unfortunately, people just don't care.

Russia gets 10X the attention that China does among liberals and mainstream media even though it doesn't come close to China in threatening US interests. I’m concerned that the uptick in concern about China is too little too late.

You suggest the U.S. should pursue a REALIST foreign policy. The main proponent of realism nowadays is John Mearsheimer and he has always argued that because of human nature and how countries have always behaved throughout history, we should be extremely concerned about the disruption that China’s rise will bring to the international system. This guy is not a neocon or some liberal crusader and he cares little for human rights - he is concerned about hard survival and power politics and has actually been very critical of Israeli influence in the US and he advocates respecting Russia’s sphere of influence.

Obviously you are well versed on China even if we disagree on many points, but it’s good to air them out and others can decide on their own. Like I said, history is a lesson in nonstop brutality. This is all speculation about what China will be like, but human nature is far from benevolent - if anything the burden of proof is on those that say China will be different from all the other potential superpowers throughout history.

It’s good to know that you’re not completely brainwashed like some Americans, although that’s probably because they don’t really concentrate around the RVF forum anyway (I can give the RVF account name of the only exception I know who is one Boomer on this forum lol). This forum in some ways brings together the best people (most intelligent, skilled, hardworking etc.) from most places in the world together.

Talking about China as a uni-polar power or Pax-Sinica is way too early and premature. Whether people like it or not, the USA is still around. For now, that is. This could change in the next few decades or earlier because the depressing truth is that the USA is literally collapsing in on itself for reasons unrelated to any foreign forces besides arguably Jews. This isn’t even me being anti-American or gloating and bragging about how the USA is collapsing in on itself, this is my genuine judgement of the USA’s future. I’m far from alone in this as this is something that many other Americans actually think is possible. I genuinely think this is really something that’s quite sad and tragic. I sincerely wish Americans all the best in the future as they’re in for some very difficult times and given everything that’s happening now, I feel glad that my family didn’t move to the USA even though at one point they seriously thought about it.

LOL. Xenophobia? Why should this even be an issue for you at all? Did someone comment or do something bad to you because you were a foreigner? Isn’t it only logical and healthy that China should be a country for Chinese (Han) first and foremost? After all, doesn’t it strike you as bizarre to lecture the Chinese about “xenophobia” when the USA is literally being overrun by foreigners? Isn’t it smart and healthy for the Chinese to be “xenophobic” (Like it’s totally working out for the West to be multicultural, welcome diversity and “cultural enrichment” from African, Muslim and Hispanic migrants lol)?

You also seem to have a philosophical or ethical preoccupation with “human nature”, that “power corrupts” and that “history is a lesson in brutality”. I would disagree. Especially with the “history is a lesson in brutality” as a lot of heroic, honorable and glorious things have happened in history. Of course, human beings are all deeply flawed creatures in many ways. Still, using this point to argue that because of this, the USA deserves and has the legitimate right to be a unipolar world power compared to China is ridiculous. Plus, it’s a false dialectic as China is still not powerful enough to replace the USA, it’s not clear that it intends to and Russia also exists as a 3rd power whose role has always been to check and block other dominant superpowers throughout history. I could just as easily use this argument against you, since if “it’s all just human nature” and all powers are the same because of “human nature”, then what difference does it make if it’s China or the USA that’s dominant in the world?

I am not a member of the “non-white majority of the world’ population” group. Just like anyone that’s healthy and behaves naturally, I look out for my own self-interest first and foremost, similarly including that of the collective which I am a part of. We are all a part of some collective whether we like it or not, because individualism is an illusion. It’s a dangerous illusion that’s doing a lot of harm and destroying the USA and West.

Not to mention that with all your concern about human nature, you effectively subscribe to the classical realist school of thought anyway.

Oh, and technically as far as the realist school is concerned, its first common assumption that “the international system is anarchic” is not necessarily true as Jews effectively function as an a-national entity that practically controls the foreign policy of the USA and the West. This means that the foreign policy and behavior of the USA on the international scene is quite predictable and linear in many ways. The only thing that’s not so predictable is how and when the USA will start wars against countries which are its clear and obvious targets.

China in truth poses a threat to the USA because it reduces the world supremacy and hegemony of the USA. The thing is though, ask yourself as a citizen of the USA, what exactly do you gain from your country’s role as a world hegemon and superpower? Arguably, you’re losing much more than anything you can ever gain since your money as a taxpayer is spent on things like a worldwide network of military bases, military infrastructure, Intelligence agency operations and a bunch of other things. Also, the USA spends millions on “humanitarian aid” through the UN that does things like rebuild complete backwater (putting it politely lol) African and Latin American countries. This only harms the USA because it increases the birth rates of these populations and facilitates the replacement of Europeans and European descended Americans since they all just migrate to the USA and West Europe anyway. Helping Indians, Africans and other similar peoples to have a high birth rate and live well is literally suicide for Americans and Europeans since it only facilitates their replacement by these more “virile and lively” populations. Who knows, you may possibly be one of these people and it could be a reason why you love and prefer the USA so much over China. After all, China isn’t going to continue giving these people free gibs like the USA does. Even then, the USA is literally applying pressure on African countries like Botswana to become sodomites lol.

Again, all this leads to the point that our issue isn’t so much our interpretation of China, but the assumptions through which we interpret China. In other words, the issue is understanding the true nature of the current international order and why most of the world is sick of it and eager for it to die as quickly as possible. I don’t think you understand just how criminal and amoral the fundamental nature of the current dominant international world order is.

"And guess what, you might have a feeling that youre destined for something else, and that any day now it will dawn on you, but it will remain that, just a feeling that you use as a crutch to never focus on anything", Beirut.
06-17-2019 06:18 AM
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Luvianka Offline
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Post: #489
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
China won! Mr MAGA lost!

With God's help, I'll conquer this terrible affliction.

By way of deception, thou shalt game women.

Diaboli virtus in lumbar est -The Devil's virtue is in his loins.
06-29-2019 12:11 PM
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Lunostrelki Offline
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Post: #490
RE: The Trump China Policy Thread
Xi Jinping didn't get anything out the G-20 meeting except a confirmation that Trump is still open to talks. The partial lift of the Huawei sale ban aside, there are still 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports that weren't there when Trump agreed to the first trade war truce in December 2018.

For Xi, his political situation becomes worse with each passing day that he doesn't get the U.S. to let up on trade. Inconveniently, the CCP deep state (I've talked about who these guys are in several previous posts) keeps weaponizing Party orthodoxy against Xi's attempts to reach a deal. All the way up to Xi going to Japan, state media has been uniformly criticizing the U.S. and saying that anyone who tries to make concessions (i.e. Xi agreeing to structural reforms) is a traitor.

Getting a deal with Trump would benefit Xi but give him political and economic leverage against the CCP deep state, so they don't want China and America to sign an agreement on Xi's watch.

To counter this, Xi seems to be trying to get a grip over ideological matters. A few days before he met with Trump, Xi held a CCP political study session where he ordered everyone to "consolidate the accomplishments" of his reforms, use "self-reform" to make progress, and of course, uphold the Party's leadership in these efforts. Taken in context, "self-reform" is Xi's way of arguing, in politically correct fashion that saves the CCP face, that Beijing should accommodate U.S. demands.

Based on the fact that Xi has had little success on the trade war so far, and that the anti-Xi forces in the CCP currently have the initiative in the battle for control over the Party's "pen" (as opposed to be "gun," which is also a political battleground) of ideological framing and propaganda, I don't think Xi's efforts at politically correct reform are going to go anywhere. The only way for him to prevail over the CCP deep state and push through his policies is to go for a gloves-off approach that ignores the ideological rules altogether.

----------------

Hong Kong and North Korea:

As I suspected, the situation in Hong Kong has escalated more, which again benefits the anti-Xi deep state. On July 1 there was a peaceful protest of 500,000 people, then that night a few hundred "protesters" stormed the legislature. They were fairly measured, but the act in itself is very suspicious. Almost none of the people who broke in have been identified, and reports about the storming show that the police made a very minimal effort at stopping the crowd from breaking in. They basically stood around while the protesters smashed the reinforced glass. When the police released their video report condemning the break-in, people immediately noticed that the officer's watch read 5:30 pm, which means that the statement had been pre-recorded since the break-in happened at like 9 pm.

The protesters who stormed the legislature also left a UK colonial flag, even though pro-independence sentiment is a fringe opinion in HK even now, and is mostly a bogeyman used by CCP propaganda as an excuse for Beijing to exercise more control over Hong Kong. As a side note, the pro-independence movement only started becoming a thing after Xi Jinping came to power, and the CCP office for managing HK is controlled by anti-Xi elements. For this reason, the whole movement is likely controlled opposition to paint the whole of the anti-CCP HK population as rebels.

Trump's "surprise visit" to the DMZ was definitely planned way out in advance. Trump set things up so that he could meet with Kim Jong-un on an apparently equal footing, without having Kim lose face. He also has to look at how things are going in U.S.-China talks before he can make any diplomatic moves, which Trump probably understands.

North Korean communist politics is likely a miniaturized version of Chinese communist politics, with the supposedly all-powerful leader actually beholden to a deep state elite. Like Xi, Kim Jong-un has indicated his desire for economic reforms. Also like Xi, there is probably a cabal of corrupt deep-staters who don't want Kim to carry out reforms successfully and take all the credit.

Kim probably sees that Trump has the upper hand in the trade war, and is motioning to throw in his lot with the U.S. rather than China. If he sees a clear and relatively safe road to economic opening up, he may continue denuclearization work.

The immediate effect of the Kim-Trump meeting is also sort of a blow to Xi's domestic political standing. Xi visited North Korea a week before the G-20 meeting, which probably signaled to CCP hardliners that he would emphasize the unity between Beijing and Pyongyang, and take a tough stance on America during his talk with Trump. The fact that Trump then went on to meet Kim probably caused Xi some embarrassment.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2019 12:56 PM by Lunostrelki.)
07-07-2019 12:29 PM
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